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Chat with BP's Nate Silver, Wed at 3 PM

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#51 Frisbetarian

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Posted 27 February 2008 - 05:39 PM

I would like to thank Nate for taking the time to answer our questions. I'm not sure if he has time to stick around and take follow-ups today, but perhaps he can be persuaded to stop by at a later date and respond.

If you enjoyed this chat, you may want to check out his stuff at Baseball Prospectus

#52 Tangotiger

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Posted 27 February 2008 - 08:20 PM

I guess I'm on a roll, so...

You feel value is non-linear, as you represent it in MORP, which results in significant bending at the margins (ARod's "value" at $38 million or whatever). Tango argues that value is actually pretty linear. It seems a fundamental issue. Why are you right and he's wrong? (Clash of the analysts!)

Nate is wrong on this issue, and I'm right.

My linear model, which is detailed in full on my blog, along with details of dozens of offseason transactions points to a linear relationship between wins and dollars.

Whatever non-linear relationship that may exist is extremely tiny, if at all.

#53 Tangotiger

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Posted 27 February 2008 - 09:00 PM

Here are two relevant threads that I wrote that remain unchallenged:

Posts 9 through 11: