111 replies to this topic

[rprociuk]

http://insider.espn....tory?id=2278930

The Sox will miss Damon, but they should still be a top-six offense if Lowell comes back strong and if they come close to duplicating Damon's .367 on-base percentage in the leadoff position in front of Loretta; they are convinced that Kevin Youkilis will produce with a .400-something on-base percentage and 15-20 homers, and hence have tried to sign someone like J.T. Snow as a complement, not an alternative. They hope their defense is better.

Thought this was the most telling portion of the article.

[MikeGreenwell]

http://insider.espn....tory?id=2278930
Thought this was the most telling portion of the article.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How is this part not more "telling"

Anyone who looked at the 2004 team and believed it should have been held together for 2007-08 was encouraging a blueprint for a team that -- barring a jump to a $$200 million payroll -- would not have been able to compete with the 2007-08 Rays that will feature Delmon Young, Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, B.J. Upton, et al. Last winter, Lucchino was the advocate for keeping Pedro Martinez ("I have a theory that you never give up on superstars," Lucchino said), and had he been able to strike with a three-year deal, it would have been in the long- and short-term best interest of the franchise to do so.

"Theo has been the principal advocate of the longer view of the Red Sox," says Lucchino, "and I have to say I think he has been  correct."

Epstein's view is that without a $$200 million payroll, it is practically impossible in the American League East to win 95-100 games every year. The goal is to be in position to make that run seven or eight out of 10 years, which means that about once every five years they have to step back and, in Lucchino's words, "retool. Not rebuild, retool.

"We probably have not done as good a job of explaining our long view as we should have," Lucchino added. "We're not paring down payroll [Henry is adamant that they have $$135 million to spend]. But we do have to try to start working young players into Fenway Park."

Trading Ramirez to Baltimore -- which would also include Matt Clement -- for Miguel Tejada could be determined later this week. It has long been fueled on the Tejada end by his close friend, David Ortiz. It does not in any way include a four-way creation of a Mets fan's Internet fantasy.

Later:

How much would be different had Epstein been there? Very little. Not only has he served as an advisor to Hoyer and Cherington, but they have exhausted every avenue, to their credit refusing to try to make splash deals for their benefit at the cost of the long-term view of the team.

If Epstein does return this month, how much was lost during the interim  period?

"Nowhere near as much as the perception," Lucchino says.

Edited by MikeGreenwell, 03 January 2006 - 11:26 PM.

[MikeGreenwell]

Btw, I also agree with this O's executive's comment on Tejeda's contract -- but he also conveniently ignores that fact that in present day money, Manny's final 3 years are basically 3 yrs/$51 million -- or basically "Carlos Delgado money."

At $17 million a year, Manny really isn't overpaid anymore given this offseason's contracts (if Damon and Furcal are $13 million/ 4 year deal players, how is Manny not worth $17 million for each of the next three years?)

"If I were to wager a guess today," says an Oriole executive, "it would be that Manny opens the season with the Red Sox and Tejada is with the Orioles. As far as I'm concerned, Tejada is one of the five best players in the game. His contract [$12 million annual average value] was signed in a down market, as opposed to Manny's [$20 million annual average value], which was signed in an inflationary market. If Tejada went on the market this winter, he'd probably get between $14 million and $16 million a year."

Also interesting is Gammons matter of fact statement that a Reed deal is apparently conditioned on the Sox being able to first pull off a trade for Patterson or Gaitright (who would apparently then go on to Seattle to fill their hole from Reed.) Huh -- I thought that's why they signed Matt Lawton?

As for center field, the focus is still on Reed, although Boston has to get another center fielder to add to the deal, be it Joey Gathright or Corey Patterson.

And what's this draft changes talk coming from?

After having six of the first 57 picks in the 2005 draft, they will have seven of the first 100 this coming June, and with the possibility that after this draft there will be no compensation picks for free agents and there will be bonus slotting, good teams have to be resigned to drafting in the Nos. 22-30 range every year with no hope of a player like Hansen (for financial reasons) sliding to the end of the first round.

Edited by MikeGreenwell, 03 January 2006 - 11:24 PM.

[Paul M]

Could we be seeing--assuming no Tejada deal--Arroyo, Wells, Shoppach, essentially for Reed and Lugo?

So--
Wells for prospects from LA (Edwin Jackson?) and Shoppach for Lugo and Gathright

Arroyo and Gathright for Reed and something

[BigMike]

And what's this draft changes talk coming from?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Lets hope so. The draft compensation system in baseball is the most assinine most backwards system in Sports. the system was supposed to help the small market teams who could not compete with the big market clubs, and instead it has been just a huge bonus for the big market clubs.

"It isn't fair what's happened to Larry in this process," says one club executive. "He's the victim of people who claim to be his friends but have done him in."

And yet all those people still have their jobs

[MikeGreenwell]

Could we be seeing--assuming no Tejada deal--Arroyo, Wells, Shoppach, essentially for Reed and Lugo?

So--
Wells for prospects from LA (Edwin Jackson?) and Shoppach for Lugo and Gathright

Arroyo and Gathright for Reed and something

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think you're going to get both Lugo and Gathright for only Shoppach and whatever prospect(s?) you get from LA. I honestly don't see one year of Wells -- and I'm someone who thinks Wells is still a pretty decent pitcher -- bringing more than one B prospect back, but I hope I'm wrong.

If the Duchscherer/Wells trade mentioned on metsblog.com has any remote basis in fact, I'd do that deal instead -- Tampa needs some nice cost-controlled bullpen arms and once Baez is gone, Duchscherer and Orvella could battle to take over as the closer (with Duchscherer, due to his experience, being the favorite.)

If you could land Gathright for Duchscherer -- a deal you'd think even Tampa would be willing to do -- then you could either keep Gathright for yourself or spin him to Seattle with Arroyo and probably land Reed and something else (probably not much, but who knows) in return. And that would still leave a Manny/Clement for Tejeda deal as a possibility.

But I really have a hard time believing the A's would trade Duchscherer for Wells -- the only way I can possibly see that happening is if Beane pulls the trigger on a Zito trade, and I hate the idea that all these other moves would be dependant on Beane moving Zito.

[yecul]

they are convinced that Kevin Youkilis will produce with a .400-something on-base percentage and 15-20 homers

Either they're trying to hype him up -- trade bait, confidence, sell him to the public, whatever -- or they're overly optimistic. That should be at the top end of his expectation.

The goal is to be in position to make that run seven or eight out of 10 years, which means that about once every five years they have to step back and, in Lucchino's words, "retool. Not rebuild, retool.

I think that is a sound goal and that's exactly how I see 2006. There's a lot of question marks and a lot of potential. If things fall together then you add. If they don't then you can be patient. This is a good team that will win a lot of games and compete for the playoffs. Blowing a lot of cash on Damon and whoever else wasn't really going to ensure that Schilling would rebound and other guys would too (or not get hurt or whatever else).

We're not paring down payroll

Of course... this is a favorable side effect this year. To the owner's pockets that is...

If Epstein does return this month, how much was lost during the interim  period?  "Nowhere near as much as the perception," Lucchino says.

Well shit what a useless quote. I'm sure it's true or at least mostly so, but what is LL supposed to say? "Oh yeah Gammo, we lost a lot of ground without Theo. Not sure what we'll ever do!"

As for center field, the focus is still on Reed, although Boston has to get another center fielder to add to the deal, be it Joey Gathright or Corey Patterson.

If true then the Mariners are whack. But, Patterson has got to be available for something. The Cubs are 1. stupid in general, 2. looking to every OF option but him and probably rightfully so, and 3. have other young OFs around.

After having six of the first 57 picks in the 2005 draft, they will have seven of the first 100 this coming June, and with the possibility that after this draft there will be no compensation picks for free agents and there will be bonus slotting, good teams have to be resigned to drafting in the Nos. 22-30 range every year with no hope of a player like Hansen (for financial reasons) sliding to the end of the first round.

Really? Well then blow a lot of cash this year if you can find good buys. No sense in saving it if those opportunities won't be there.

Could we be seeing--assuming no Tejada deal--Arroyo, Wells, Shoppach, essentially for Reed and Lugo?

Manny + Reed + Lugo sounds better than having Tejada, IMO.

[ragecage]

LL's explanation of the team's "long view" is very interesting. The fact that he credits Theo for being correct is also nice to see. This makes me more confident that they are all on the same page, and may have quietly worked out some of the rumored disagreements about long-term plans. If Theo returns, I'd like to hear more of his take on this.

[Carroll Hardy]

The Messiah may well be returning to Red Sox Nation; it's ironic that it's after somebody else gets crowned with thorns and catches the spear in the side for the loss of the greatest lead-off hitter in the history of the game , even more so if/when Manny is traded.

Say what you will about Larry Lucchino, he continues to be a critical piece of this organization. Tough decisions to make, and it requires a tough guy who's not afraid to take the heat. By the time 2009 rolls around, we may look back on the strategy of stockpiling draft picks from 2005-2006 and retooling by shedding vets before they decline and adding prospects as an act of brilliance.

[Pumpsie]

By the time 2009 rolls around, we may look back on the strategy of stockpiling draft picks from 2005-2006 and retooling by shedding vets before they decline and adding prospects as an act of brilliance.

I don't have to wait that long. I already think that's the smart way to go.

[Vermonter At Large]

Thanks to Old Hickory and the lucid postings in this thread for breathing some fresh air into the Main Board. Most of the threads here have become so convoluted and circuitous that they are unreadable. Nothing like a good dose of common sense to start off the New Year ...

[Charley Weir]

Manny + Reed + Lugo sounds better than having Tejada, IMO.

LORD, have mercy - I'm agreeing with Yecul again!

What a way to start the year.

Note to L.L. - you want to look brilliant? You have the best hitter in all of baseball under contract - (Whatever the cost - best is best). A guy who will carry your team in the dog days, who will cause a ripple effect (Fastballs to Ortiz, extra wear and tear on opposing pitchers) throughout the lineup. Tell Manny today , and every day until after the deadline - PLAY!

If the O's really want to move Tejada, a way could be found. (Maybe the Curse of A-rod could be lifted from NY - anybody got Cashman's cell #?)

[Rico]

I have no difficulty believing the Youkilis offensive projections and neither does BP, Bill James and others. But they probably need JT Snow for his D, because I fear Youk on D will be something akin to Millar.

[sox junky]

Could we be seeing--assuming no Tejada deal--Arroyo, Wells, Shoppach, essentially for Reed and Lugo?

So--
Wells for prospects from LA (Edwin Jackson?) and Shoppach for Lugo and Gathright

Arroyo and Gathright for Reed and something

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've been thinking something similar like Wells to LAD for prospects (Jackson and/or Broxton) and send those prospects to TB with Shoppach for Lugo. I don't think they can get Gathright also. Then send Moss to the Cubs for Patterson and then send Patterson and Arroyo to Seattle for Reed.

Then sign Clemens, JT Snow, and Jeff Davanon and they'll be in good shape.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Shoppach for Lugo and Gathright

How the heck do you pull that off? Given the rumors on what the Rays have rejected for Lugo on his own, this would seem like a real stretch. Doesn't really make much sense from the Rays end, does it? Can't imagine Shoppach has much value at this point.

[Quintanariffic]

How the heck do you pull that off? Given the rumors on what the Rays have rejected for Lugo on his own, this would seem like a real stretch. Doesn't really make much sense from the Rays end, does it? Can't imagine Shoppach has much value at this point.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why not? Because of the 11ABs you keep bringing up as being relevant? The guy is one of the top 3-4 catching prospects in baseball - surely that has value to someone.

That said, I don't think whoever wrote that was saying Shoppach for Lugo and Gaithright. It was Shoppach and other prospects (from a Wells deal) for Lugo and Gaithright.

Edited by Quintanariffic, 04 January 2006 - 09:30 AM.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

How the heck do you pull that off? Given the rumors on what the Rays have rejected for Lugo on his own, this would seem like a real stretch. Doesn't really make much sense from the Rays end, does it? Can't imagine Shoppach has much value at this point.

Yeah .. stupid trade for the Rays .. they get a cost controlled excellent defensive catcher with a projected 750-800 ops for 5-6 years for one year of a midling SS with error problems and a never-will-be tools goof .. yeah .. dumb trade ..

[behindthepen]

After having six of the first 57 picks in the 2005 draft, they will have seven of the first 100 this coming June, and with the possibility that after this draft there will be no compensation picks for free agents and there will be bonus slotting, good teams have to be resigned to drafting in the Nos. 22-30 range every year with no hope of a player like Hansen (for financial reasons) sliding to the end of the first round.

And what's this draft changes talk coming from?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The current CBA expires 12/19/06, so everything that relates to players is up in the air for 2007. It's certainly possible that it will just be extended, given that there hasn't been a lot of contention outside of the drug testing issues.

[YAZ]

And just one more, the possible 100 million dollar Andy Marte!!!

Lucchino backs the reluctance of Cherington and Hoyer to deal Andy Marte, whom Boras told Lucchino is earmarked by Boras' corporation as "one of five minor-leaguers who can be $100 million players." They do not want to trade Jon Papelbon or Jon Lester; Papelbon is expected to be in the rotation at the beginning of the season, Lester perhaps as early as September. They will not trade relievers Craig Hansen or Edgar Martinez or infielder Dustin Pedroia, especially after trading three big power arms (right-handers Anibal Sanchez, Jesus Delgado and Harvey Garcia) to Florida.

Edited by YAZ, 04 January 2006 - 09:56 AM.

[happybooker99]

If the O's really want to move Tejada, a way could be found. (Maybe the Curse of A-rod could be lifted from NY - anybody got Cashman's cell #?)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I didn't know Tejada played 3b. Certainly Captain Intangibles won't move!

[Morassofnegativity]

I hope the Sox do exactly what Gammons is reporting. Staying within their model...Theo or not. Of course that wll lead to more of the "What are the Sox doing?" and "Are people in Boston freaking out?" questions I've been getting. I just laugh but it's still annoying. Buster Olney can suck it too.

Edited by Morassofnegativity, 04 January 2006 - 10:03 AM.

[smastroyin]

I hope the Sox do exactly what Gammons is reporting.  Staying within their model...Theo or not.  Of course that wll lead to more of the "What are the Sox doing?" and "Are people in Boston freaking out?" questions I've been getting.  I just laugh but it's still annoying.  Buster Olney can suck it too.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It might be worth noting that the last time they had an off-season even vaguely like this was after the 1996 season, when Clemens left, Naehring left, Canseco demanded a trade (and eventually was traded for John Wasdin), and Mo Vaughn bitched like a 2 year old without a rattle about the direction of the club.

1997 sucked for sure, but then some good things happened, as I recall.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Why not? Because of the 11ABs you keep bringing up as being relevant? The guy is one of the top 3-4 catching prospects in baseball - surely that has value to someone.

I don't believe I ever said the 11 AB's on their own were relevant at all, but coupled with the scouting report and the minor league data which suggests this guy has a major problem making contact, and the fact that the Sox feel the need to bring in Ken Huckaby, John Flaherty, and Robbie Hammock suggests to me that Kelly Shoppach is not in their plans.

I do think that how awful he looked in those AB's, coupled with the perception that he will struggle against big league pitching based on that high K rate, certainly didn't help his value.

If you believe that the Rays would pass on moving Lugo for Andy Marte or Aaron Heilman and Co ...and then trade him AND Gathright for Shoppach, more power to you. I don't see it as being all that likely. That was the argument here, wasn't it?

I don't know how much value Shoppach has as one of the top 3-4 catching prospects in baseball, I suspect you don't either. PECOTA doesn't seem to like him too much, the Sox don't really appear to either.

My opinion is that Shoppach doesn't have that much value; guess we'll have to wait and see.

I was saying Shoppach and the fruits of the Wells trade (Broxton, Orenduff, et al.) for Lugo and Gathright, but we may need to add something, and not Marte, but maybe Moss?

Gotcha, that may work....but I wonder how much "value" Moss has as well, esp. to a team like the Rays overflowing with young corner OF's. I'm of the impression they wanted guys that could help NOW for Lugo and co.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 04 January 2006 - 10:13 AM.

[Paul M]

I was saying Shoppach and the fruits of the Wells trade (Broxton, Orenduff, et al.) for Lugo and Gathright, but we may need to add something, and not Marte, but maybe Moss?

I will be quick to go postal if they deal Marte for Lugo. It's short-sighted and the kind of panic we haven't seen in years. (Unless we were getting Laroche/Guzman from LA, but even then I'm not liking it)

[HeadNumberNine]

Note to L.L.  - you want to look brilliant? You have the best hitter in all of baseball under contract - (Whatever the cost - best is best).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I didn't know we had Travis Hafner on the Red Sox.

Manny is a great hitter, but. Hafner is better. Vlad is better. Barry Bonds is trying to come back and he's better. A-Rod is close but might be better. Hell, Ortiz is probably better. Manny is not the best hitter in baseball. He's probably not even the best hitter on the team.

It's not doing anyone any favors when we carried away with hyperbole.

Edit: Misspelling

Edited by HeadNumberNine, 04 January 2006 - 10:34 AM.

[67WasBest]

I didn't know we had Travid Hafner on the Red Sox.

Manny is a great hitter, but. Hafner is better. Vlad is better. Barry Bonds is trying to come back and he's better. A-Rod is close but might be better. Hell, Ortiz is probably better. Manny is not the best hitter in baseball. He's probably not even the best hitter on the team.

It's not doing anyone any favors when we carried away with hyperbole.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So how does splitting hairs add so much to the debate?

[PedroKsBambino]

Albert Pujols probably belongs above Hafner and Manny anyway.

[ctsoxfan5]

I didn't know we had Travid Hafner on the Red Sox.

Manny is a great hitter, but. Hafner is better. Vlad is better. Barry Bonds is trying to come back and he's better. A-Rod is close but might be better. Hell, Ortiz is probably better. Manny is not the best hitter in baseball. He's probably not even the best hitter on the team.

It's not doing anyone any favors when we carried away with hyperbole.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Manny may not be the best hitter in baseball, but I'm not ready to put Hafner ahead of him. Hafner has had two seasons with an OPS+ above 150. Manny has done that for 7 straight seasons (and had an OPS+ of over 140 for 11 straight seasons). Hafner has been awesome the past two years, but, I don't know that I'd automatically say he's a better hitter.

Oh- and Hafner's first season with an OPS+ over 150 came when he was age 27. At that point in his career, Manny was on his 5th straight season over 140.

Edited by ctsoxfan5, 04 January 2006 - 10:32 AM.

[HeadNumberNine]

Albert Pujols probably belongs above Hafner and Manny anyway.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Good point. That's yet another hitter who is better than Manny.

Manny is leaving his prime, and there are a handful of guys who are not even there yet, in the middle of it, or almost there who are better than Manny, and will be for the next few years.

In the past Manny has only lead the A.L. in OPS+ once, and that was way back in 1999. In that same year, McGuire had a better OPS+ in the N.L., so you could easily say that in Manny's best year, he still wasn't the best in baseball.

Manny is great, but he hasn't been the best for 6 years, if he ever was the best at all, and he's not exactly going to be getting better as he gets older.

Edited by HeadNumberNine, 04 January 2006 - 11:15 AM.

[ctsoxfan5]

Good point. Yet another hitter who is better than Manny.

Manny is leaving his prime, and there are a handful of guys who are not even there yet, in the middle of it, or almost there who are better than Manny, and will be for the next few years.

In the past Manny has only lead the A.L. in OPS+ once, and that was way back in 1999.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree that going forward, there are other guys who may be better hitters over the next couple of years (Pujols, etc.)- but if you're looking back over the past fwe years, I think you're undervaluing Manny-- he's been in the top 5 in OPS+ for 7 straight years.

[HeadNumberNine]

I agree that going forward, there are other guys who may be better hitters over the next couple of years (Pujols, etc.)- but if you're looking back over the past fwe years, I think you're undervaluing Manny-- he's been in the top 5 in OPS+ for 7 straight years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's a fair point, but I'm not trying to decide who among active major leaguers has the most impressive total carrer. I'm trying to decide who among advice major leaguers is the best hitter right now.

e.g If there were a hitting contest tonight, and you can have anybody you want on your team, who do you pick first? I don't think the first pick is Manny. He has put together an impressive carrer, and his total carrer might be among the best whole carrers among active players, but I don't think he's ever been the best at any point. He certainly isn't now, and he won't be at any point in the future.

Really, if he remains on the team with Oritz, he won't even be the best hitter on the Red Sox next year. He wasn't last year.

Edited: For Spelling

Edited by HeadNumberNine, 04 January 2006 - 11:14 AM.

[Steve Dillard]

I hope the Sox do exactly what Gammons is reporting.  Staying within their model...Theo or not.  Of course that wll lead to more of the "What are the Sox doing?" and "Are people in Boston freaking out?" questions I've been getting.  I just laugh but it's still annoying.  Buster Olney can suck it too.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Where's the negativity? Change your username if you're not synical enough to see that this "plan" Gammo talks about is a theme, but hardly explains their F ups this offseason. If you have a plan to get younger in CF, you don't do "Theo would have signed him for 4/46" thing, because if you're willing to do that, then the only reason you lost him is not his age, but the extra $6 mil. (That's also why the FO looked devasted when Damon left, which they would not do if they were prepared to go younger in CF).

[ctsoxfan5]

That's a fair point, but I'm not trying to decide who among active major leaguers has the most impressive total carrer. I'm trying to decide who among advice major leaguers is the best hitter right now.

e.g If there were a hitting contest tonight, and you can have anybody you want on your team, who do you pick first? I don't think the first pick is Manny. He has put together an impressive carrer, and his total carrer might be among the best whole carrers among active players, but I don't think he's ever been the best at any point. He certainly isn't now, and he won't be at any point in the future.

Really, if he remains on the team with Oritz, he won't even be the best hitter on the Red Sox next year. He wasn't last year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Fair enough-- other than the spelling errors, I agree with everything in that post.

[Eddie Jurak]

LL's explanation of the team's "long view" is very interesting.  The fact that he credits Theo for being correct is also nice to see.  This makes me more confident that they are all on the same page, and may have quietly worked out some of the rumored disagreements about long-term plans.  If Theo returns, I'd like to hear more of his take on this.

If this is true, then they will not trade Andy Marte, thank God. If they trade him for Lugo it would put the lie to Lucchino's comments.

Honestly, I think a Cora/Graffanino platoon would be just fine for SS. Start Cora in most games to maximize the overall defense at the position, with Graffanino getting some time against LHP and in late inning situations when the Sox need offense. It's not my ideal choice, but I think the whole OF is a bigger priority. (Manny wants out, there is no CF, and Trot, who is injury prone and becoming a defensive liability, still needs a platoon partner.)

[Nick Kaufman]

Lucchino was the advocate for keeping Pedro Martinez ("I have a theory that you never give up on superstars," Lucchino said), and had he been able to strike with a three-year deal, it would have been in the long- and short-term best interest of the franchise to do so.

"Theo has been the principal advocate of the longer view of the Red Sox," says Lucchino, "and I have to say I think he has been  correct."

I don't have time to read the thread, but in yesterday's comments, I didn't see anyone making a comment about it.

This quote is a damning praise. Lucchino very cleverly pins the Pedro decision on Theo adding just one more little stone in his defence.

[adro430]

Where's the negativity?  Change your username if you're not synical enough to see that this "plan" Gammo talks about is a theme, but hardly explains their F ups this offseason.  If you have a plan to get younger in CF, you don't do "Theo would have signed him for 4/46" thing, because if you're willing to do that, then the only reason you lost him is not his age, but the extra $6 mil.  (That's also why the FO looked devasted when Damon left, which they would not do if they were prepared to go younger in CF).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Look, the plan is not and never was to get younger in CF. The plan is to wisely spend ~$130M on a team, and if you can do that, you can compete. The team would like to get younger in CF, but if they could get Damon at the right price, then they would have had the flexibility to go with that. There's a number where the team believed that they could field a better team by allocating the Damon money elsewhere, and I'm glad the FO is not so short-sighted that they decide on players first and then pay whatever it takes to get them. I don't see how being smart and flexible in this way is an F up.

Edited by adro430, 04 January 2006 - 11:13 AM.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

I don't believe I ever said the 11 AB's on their own were relevant at all, but coupled with the scouting report and the minor league data which suggests this guy has a major problem making contact, and the fact that the Sox feel the need to bring in Ken Huckaby, John Flaherty, and Robbie Hammock suggests to me that Kelly Shoppach is not in their plans.

I do think that how awful he looked in those AB's, coupled with the perception that he will struggle against big league pitching based on that high K rate, certainly didn't help his value.

If it's not relevant then don't mention it. For the purpose of player projection those 11 ABs should not be part of the discussion.

Shoppach's high K rate IS an important part of the discussion. He's probably not going to be a star. But he does project to be an average hitting major league catcher with superior defensive skills .. that has a lot of value. And even if he can manage a .700-.720 ops he could still be a starter .. guys like Dan Wilson and Brad Ausmus have had long careers with this kind of skill set.

That being said, the real point is whether the DRays (or any other trading partner) think very highly of him or not. And with the DRays it's very very difficult to get a handle on how they value players - particularly their own. I mean, these guys are rumoured to be interested in KazMat for god's sake.

I think the Sox would be quite happy to make Shoppach Varitek's backup .. but they realize he may have more value as a trading chip. The Huckaby's and Flaherty's are just insurance IMO. But , as a trading chip, his value is determined by the market .. and not by his projections. His worth is solely determined by what you can get for him.

As for trading Marte for Lugo - and just one year of Lugo for that matter - that's insane .. the difference between Lugo and the drek they currently employ (Cora) might add up 2 WARP .. although I think that's a very optimistic projection. People want to trade a projected star for 2 wins ? Especially with Pedroia knocking on the door .. who projects to be a far better player than Lugo is right now.

Shoppach for Lugo would be a good swap ..for Lugo AND Gathright (who I think is worthless, but some Organizations - namely Seattle - probably value him higher) - well, that's probably wishfull thinking. Especially since it's the DRays.

Edited by BCsMightyJoeYoung, 04 January 2006 - 11:17 AM.

[HeadNumberNine]

So how does splitting hairs add so much to the debate?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Someone said that Manny was the best hitter in baseball. That's not true. It's probably never been true. Pointing out falsehoods and removing them from our minds so that we only deal in truths adds to the debate. If we continue this discussion assuming that Manny is the best hitter in baseball, we'll draw some very different conclusions than if we continue this discussion believing the truth, that Manny is a very good, or even a great hitter, but not the best.

Believing that Manny is the best hitter in baseball causes us to underestimate who the best hitter really is. We don't even understand our own team very well if we believe that Manny is the best hitter in baseball, since there is a better hitter on our own team! We also don't understand the competition very well if we believe that Manny is better than all of them.

It always helps out a conversation to politely point out when someone has said something that is not true.

How does whining about me pointing out a truth add so much to the debate?

Edited by HeadNumberNine, 04 January 2006 - 11:23 AM.

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Manny is a great hitter, but. Hafner is better. Vlad is better. Barry Bonds is trying to come back and he's better. A-Rod is close but might be better. Hell, Ortiz is probably better. Manny is not the best hitter in baseball. He's probably not even the best hitter on the team.

I really have to take umbridge with this quote.

First of all, Travis Hafner is in no way better than Manny Ramirez. He had a terrific year last year and a decent year before, but Manny consistently puts up Hall of Fame numbers. I'm not trying to be a smart ass, but look at Manny's numbers and you will be amazed at the stat sheet.

On any given day, Vlad and Manny are interchangable. I might even rate Vlad as a better all around ball player (his arm is one of the strongest in the league), but Manny is a better disicplined hitter.

Barry Bonds? The guy who is 41-years-old and coming off double knee surgery? That Barry Bonds?

ARod is better than Manny. I agree with you on that.

As much as I love Ortiz, and he may be my current favorite Sox, he's not better than Manny Ramirez. Also, he hasn't been as consistent over his career as Manny, now that probably has something to do with the fact that he was misuesed early in his career and constantly platooned, but Manny Ramirezes don't grow on trees.

I think that the Sox front office has realized this and are waiting to be bowled over with a terrific deal. Put it this way, if you could make a trade with any of the guys that you listed, would you trade Manny for them today? Yes on ARod, Vlad and Pujols. No on Bonds, Hafner and Ortiz. Sometimes, baseball analysis is that easy.

---
Check this out:
www.room19comics.com

[PedroKsBambino]

This quote is a damning praise. Lucchino very cleverly pins the Pedro decision on Theo adding just one more little stone in his defence.

I've been told a number of times that Theo was in favor of Pedro moving on since even before the 2004 option was exercised. JWH said as much here, and it's been reported pretty widely the last couple months. I don't see any reason at all to think it's not true.

[BlueStateRedSox]

I don't have time to read the thread, but in yesterday's comments, I didn't see anyone making a comment about it.

This quote is a damning praise. Lucchino very cleverly pins the Pedro decision on Theo adding just one more little stone in his defence.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i guess it depends on how you parse the wording. when i saw this, i took away the opposite impression: i read it as luccino saying

1) i was pushing to keep pedro, the aging star
2) theo was ready to move on, bc he wants the team to get younger
3) theo is right

in fact, i was actually wondering if this wasn't some deliberate effort to put out an olive branch quote, making up for when ll's comments (i think it was ll's comments, i've lost track onw) about the colorado deal made theo look bad.

[Angel Santos in Red]

I also agree with this philosophy -- if what Gammons reports is somewhat true.

That the Sox wanted Markakis back in a potential Manny-Tejada swap lends credance to this philosophy. If unloading some established and expensive vets equates to Tejada-Marte-Markakis then I would say they are, for the most part, following this blueprint.

Never did I think they could get Markakis back in a trade, but to see them asking is encouraging. It's like trying to get Jeremy Reed before he turns into Jeremy Reed the highly touted and established prospect, well before he has a taste of success at the MLB level.

I like it.

[dcb46]

"No on Bonds, Hafner and Ortiz."

What???

I would trade Manny for Hafner or Ortiz in a heartbeat, taking into account age, current productivity, and impact on team morale. And I'd throw in a prospect.

[HeadNumberNine]

I really have to take umbridge with this quote.

First of all, Travis Hafner is in no way better than Manny Ramirez. He had a terrific year last year and a decent year before, but Manny consistently puts up Hall of Fame numbers. I'm not trying to be a smart ass, but look at Manny's numbers and you will be amazed at the stat sheet.

On any given day, Vlad and Manny are interchangable. I might even rate Vlad as a better all around ball player (his arm is one of the strongest in the league), but Manny is a better disicplined hitter.

Barry Bonds? The guy who is 41-years-old and coming off double knee surgery? That Barry Bonds?

ARod is better than Manny. I agree with you on that.

As much as I love Ortiz, and he may be my current favorite Sox, he's not better than Manny Ramirez. Also, he hasn't been as consistent over his career as Manny, now that probably has something to do with the fact that he was misuesed early in his career and constantly platooned, but Manny Ramirezes don't grow on trees.

I think that the Sox front office has realized this and are waiting to be bowled over with a terrific deal. Put it this way, if you could make a trade with any of the guys that you listed, would you trade Manny for them today? Yes on ARod, Vlad and Pujols. No on Bonds, Hafner and Ortiz. Sometimes, baseball analysis is that easy.

---
Check this out:
www.room19comics.com

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Again, I feel the need to point out that I'm responding to the comment that Manny is the best hitter in all of baseball. I'm not debating if Manny has the best total career numbers, or if he's been the best for the aggregated last 5 years. I'm making a point that he's not the best hitter in baseball now. Hafner was better last year, and the year before. The numbers speak for themselves. Manny was in the top 10 last year, but not better than Hafner, or Derek Lee, or A-Rod, or Vlad, or David Ortiz, or Pujols, or even Carlos Delgado. Two years ago Bonds blew Manny out of the water. So Manny can't possibly be the best in those last two years.

I'm also not debating who is a better player. I'm debating who is a better hitter right now. Of course A-Rod is a better player than Manny. So is Vlad. So is Pujols. So is Hafner in my opinion. Hell, so is Miguel Cabrera. But that's not what I'm talking about. Hitting is what I'm talking about, and Manny is not the best at hitting right now, or even one of the best 3. He's not even the best hitter on the team. Nor was he ever the best hitter in baseball at any given time.

On a side note, Barry Bonds was the best hitter in baseball by a monstrous margin at ages 35, 36, 37, 38, and 39. If he can come back healthy (which I don't know if he can,) but if he can, I don't see why we would expect to see a huge drop-off in performance, since he was the best by such a huge margin for so long. Manny was never the best by a huge margin like Bonds was. Hell, he was never the best at all, not even by a close margin, at any given time. Manny put together a really great string of seasons, but none of those single seasons was the best of the year. Manny was never the best, and he never will be.

Let's not view the world through Red Sox colored glasses. Manny is a great hitter, really. But for every single season in Manny's entire career, someone else has had a better season that same year hitting-wise. He's he's not the best hitter in baseball now, and he never has been.

Edited by HeadNumberNine, 04 January 2006 - 12:06 PM.

[yecul]

I don't have time to read the thread, but in yesterday's comments, I didn't see anyone making a comment about it.

This quote is a damning praise. Lucchino very cleverly pins the Pedro decision on Theo adding just one more little stone in his defence.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That quote was great. What a politician's take on the situation.

Basically, LL wanted Pedro on his terms. I'm sure Theo would have gladly taken him on a 3/27 deal or whatever such nonsense. But realistically, it was going to be 3 at big bucks or, more likely, 4. Maybe only at that point did Theo want a pass. LL probably as well.

But, by phrasing it in a certain way with a little qualifier, LL can come out smelling like roses with a subtle subconscious dig at Theo all at the same time.

THIS is why I dislike LL. He's a snake. No two ways about it.

[yecul]

Once you get to the very top few percentage players it's all a wash. They're so much better than the rest of the players that it's basically irrelevant how they compare to each other.

[BigJimEd]

So IF Lowell return to form AND IF the Sox replace Damon's OBP they could be a top 6 offense. Gee, you think? great insight, Pete.



As for Manny, I would put him in the top 5. I would list him ahead of Ortiz. Ortiz had a better year last year but I'm not sure that automatically projects him to be better next year. And I don't think he can base who's the best hitter on one single season.

I'm not sure top 3, top 5 or top 10 effects his trade value very much. Teams will value him according and there won't be much difference.

Edited by BigJimEd, 04 January 2006 - 12:14 PM.

[DJnVa]

Anyone jump in Gammons chat today? I imagine there are some interesting questions that we could pose.

[Bradyblack]

Look at the numbers from last year of players with runners on. With RISP, Manny's numbers are even better. Manny is a clean-up hitter and he does his job better than anyone else. It's not even close. I would rather have Manny.

Player AVG HR RBI OPS OBP SLG

Manny .346 32 131 1.182 .439 .743

Hafner .306 18 93 1.058 .429 .629

Pujols .313 20 96 1.032 .433 .599

Vlad .332 14 90 1.011 .426 .585

Ortiz .315 18 119 1.006 .425 .581

Arod .305 21 103 .957 .406 .551

Miggie .308 11 83 .844 .353 .490

Edited by Bradyblack, 04 January 2006 - 12:18 PM.

[YAZ]

Anyone jump in Gammons chat today?  I imagine there are some interesting questions that we could pose.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Where is it, I'm looking but don't see it in Insider?