1702 replies to this topic

[Sille Skrub]

16-0!

Here's a funny post from back in September:

16-0? Seriously?

Have you guys seen the schedule? It's no cake walk.

16-0. The 2007 Pats have done something no other team has done in the history of the NFL. To go 16-0 in the regular season is so astonishing that I don't think I can even fully comprehend it yet. To do it this season, with that schedule is even more incredible.

Many people think that if they lose the playoffs that the season will be a failure. I fall on the other side of the fence. As I said in an earlier game thread, I think the Pats are playing with house money at this point. The legitimacy of their dynasty was questioned and they answered that question by winning all of their games. Not 14, not 15, all.

Now, don't get me wrong. I want them to hoist their fourth Lombardi Trophy on February 3rd as much (if not more) than anyone. I've never wanted to see a team of mine win it all more than the 2007 Patriots. Will I be disappointed if they falter? Of course. Would it piss me off to no end? No doubt. However, I certainly will not consider the season a failure if they do.

It is so hard to win in the NFL in this age of the salary cap and parity. The NFL is the best run sports league on the planet and any team can really beat any other on any given day. All the teams that are remaining in the tournament are solid teams. There are no Miamis left on the schedule. To lose a game to one of the remaining teams would not make this season a failure.

Last week, my brother asked me who I wanted the Pats to play in their first game. Without hesitation, I responded "Jacksonville." Even though I think the Jaguars are a good team, I think they have become vastly, vastly overrated over the past month or so. I think this was evidenced last night in Pittsburgh. The Jaguars have become the chic pick to beat the Pats just because the Pats have beaten everyone else. I wanted the Jags because I want there to be no stone left unturned. I also wanted the Jags because I think the Pats will beat them by at least two touchdowns.

If the Pats are fortunate enough to win their next three games, the 2007 Pats will be considered the greatest team in the history of the National Football League. Pretty amazing if you think about it.

Go Pats.

Be fabulous.

[jsinger121]

Spread them out and have Brady pick them apart. Stack the box to shut down Taylor and MJD.

[Coach W]

31-14, Pats. At least. 38 would be more likely seeing as that is their favorite number. David Garrard, Welcome to the Patriots Invitational. Bill Belichick will be your host.

[Ed Hillel]

Gonna be a tough challenge for the offensive line. If they can hold up, I expect the Pats will win by at least 10. If not, we could be in for a barnburner.

[jsinger121]

Gonna be a tough challenge for the offensive line. If they can hold up, I expect the Pats will win by at least 10. If not, we could be in for a barnburner.

The Jaguars are big but they don't have the speed of teams like the Giants or Colts. I expect them to hold the Jags DLine down. They are without Marcus Stroud for the rest of the year.

[Seels]

The Jaguars are big but they don't have the speed of teams like the Giants or Colts. I expect them to hold the Jags DLine down. They are without Marcus Stroud for the rest of the year.

Henderson got injured against the Steelers as well, assuming he plays he won't be at 100%.

[PedroKsBambino]

I think it's the Jax O Line vs the Pats D Line which is the big challenge. Jax has the horses to run 150-200 up on the Pats and if they can do so, that'll be a path to winning.

It's typically speed defense teams that have given the Pats issues, I believe, not size, on that side of the ball.

[Ed Hillel]

The weather is anoher wild card here. I believe it's supposed to be nice for the week, but don't know about the weekend. Any foresight, Genoa?

[nothumb]

This can be a trap game if the Pats get overconfident and come out sloppy. They've had two weeks off and may not look very sharp early on - the worst thing they can do is give up easy TDs off turnovers. This JAX team is a very, very different animal when it's ahead. Everyone is talking about how uneven their effort was against PIT, and rightly so. But for the first 2.5 quarters there was nothing uneven about it, and we don't need to put ourselves in a position to come back from three scores down.

Have a plan for the opening drive, come out strong and put up some points. Get in a rhythm and get Brady going. Their pass defense did look vulnerable against a PIT team that doesn't have the kind of protection the Pats do - we should be able to move the ball. But I expect them to throw everything they have at Brady on the first series, and for the Pats to counter with four wide and Faulk, or even 3 WR / TE / RB, rather than a full spread. Have to protect Brady and get him going, if there is one knock on him it is that he sometimes comes out cold.

I like NE by fourteen or so, but I am wary of a very, very fired up JAX team.

[genoasalami]

The weather is anoher wild card here. I believe it's supposed to be nice for the week, but don't know about the weekend. Any foresight, Genoa?

Looks OK at this point. Storm on Friday then breezy and chilly Saturday night. I do not see any precip at this point. I will update if there are any changes.

Just saw the line. Pats -11.5

[Seels]

I'm not. We haven't seen Watson Neal or Kyle Brady in at least a few weeks, our Oline will look a lot better than it did in the last two games. Gaffney didn't see a lot of playing time the last two games either, and everyone knows there was a lot of forcing the ball to Moss against the Jets and Miami.

I'm a firm believer in the "BB going vanilla to close out the season" wagon. He did what he had to do to win games but didn't open up too much because the plans had to be on the playoffs. Jacksonville didn't impress me in either Indy game, slightly in the first PIttsburgh game, and who else did they play?

Jacksonville has this same schtick every year: Play a 2nd place schedule extremely well, winning the games you're supposed to and losing the games you are dogs in. The best player on their team is out til 08. If Jacksonville keeps this competitive half way through the 3rd I'll be surprised.

34-17 Pats.

[Paradigm]

This can be a trap game if the Pats get overconfident and come out sloppy.

A trap game would be a Week 8 loss to the Raiders if they just beat Indy in Week 7, or losing with a bigger game ahead of them. Belichick has this team focused, prepared, ready to go. They've probably been game-planning the Jags for a while knowing that San Diego would beat Tennessee.

I think special teams can be huge here, notably containing MJD on kickoffs and ensuring good field position. That and turnovers, as always, because the Jags will be able to pound the ball on shorter fields to get into scoring range. That said, I think the passing attack is just too strong for the Jags to handle, but any way you slice it, we're in for a fantastic game.

[bunchabums]

This can be a trap game if the Pats get overconfident and come out sloppy. ... I like NE by fourteen or so, but I am wary of a very, very fired up JAX team.

The Pats haven't come out overconfident all year, what makes anyone think they will on their first home playoff game? I am not wary at all of a JAX team that doesn't have the secondary to cover a spread out NE attack or a depleted (and slow) line to put significant pressure on Brady. Two TD victory at a minimum, like you said, some hard hitting throughout, but the game will be pretty much in hand throughout.

[CWiggum]

There is no such thing as a trap game in the playoffs.

[DJnVa]

This can be a trap game if the Pats get overconfident and come out sloppy.

A trap game? In the playoffs? Coming off a 16-0 season?

I don't see that at all.

[Fratboy]

Just saw the line. Pats -11.5

Wow. This is SCREAMING for a bet on the Jags. I think it's a close one, but Pats win by 7 or less.

[CaptainLaddie]

What would the line have been if it was Pats/Titans? -21?

[eddiew112]

The Jaguars are big but they don't have the speed of teams like the Giants or Colts. I expect them to hold the Jags DLine down. They are without Marcus Stroud for the rest of the year.

Hell, they don't even have the speed of the Steelers. I think this game will be relatively easy, 34-14 Pats.

[Pandemonium67]

Looks like a typical reasonably close game until about 10 minutes into the third quarter, by which time the Pats go up 20 and Asante picks off Garrard on the next series.

I just wish the asshats in the scheduling office didn't have the Pats playing at 8 p.m. in Foxboro in January, while the Seahawks get a 1:00 p.m. start. I see the reason, but I don't like it.

[mulluysavage]

I don't like the Pats D versus the Jags' running game. See: McGahee and the Ravens, Westbrook and the Eagles, Addai and the Colts.

[staz]

Oh, the Jaguars could easily beat the Patriots. And vice versa. On any given...

Just stack the damn box. They have 2 guys that can go all Willis McGahee on us, and Garrard is tough, mobile and has a nice arm. Don't kid yourselves, this is no walk in the park.

[Sille Skrub]

Premature ejactulation fixed....

[Havok]

I was getting nervous about someone else starting a game discussion thread. Let us all knock on wood for this Kitchkinet redux.

This weekend cannot come quickly enough.

Edited by Havok, 06 January 2008 - 10:08 PM.

[DJnVa]

I don't like the Pats D versus the Jags' running game. See: McGahee and the Ravens, Westbrook and the Eagles, Addai and the Colts.

Win. Win. Win.

I don't like the Jags D versus the Pats passing game. See: Games 1-16.

[RedOctober3829]

If the Patriots play to their potential on offense, defense, and special teams, I don't care who they play. Stop the run and make Garrard beat you over the top.

[mulluysavage]

Win. Win. Win.

I don't like the Jags D versus the Pats passing game. See: Games 1-16.

Thanks for that DJ, I feel better. WE DON'T NEED NO STINKIN' TIME OF POSSESSION!!!!

Edited by mulluysavage, 06 January 2008 - 10:16 PM.

[Euclis20]

Thanks for that DJ, I feel better. WE DON'T NEED NO STINKIN' TIME OF POSSESSION!!!!

The Jags are 3rd in the NFL in TOP.

The Pats are 2nd.

[Havok]

Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio isn't optimistic about MLB Mike Peterson's (hand) chances of playing against New England.
The Jags' run defense did just fine without Peterson in the Wild Card Round, bottling up Najeh Davenport for just 25 yards on 16 attempts. However, Jacksonville could use Peterson against the more pass happy Patriots.

- Rotoworld

[BU1995Hockey]

Wow. This is SCREAMING for a bet on the Jags. I think it's a close one, but Pats win by 7 or less.

Lets make a bet Fratty. I think its gonna be a blowout

[mulluysavage]

The Jags are 3rd in the NFL in TOP.

The Pats are 2nd.

If the game were keep-away, instead of football, the Pats would have been 11-5 this season. There were only 5 games where their opponents held the ball longer than them. The first 3 were:

IND 30:16 NWE 27:44

PHI 32:54 NWE 27:06

BAL 32:11 NWE 27:49


The other 2 games where Pats were out-posessed were after that: PIT, MIA (Dec.23). Seems like teams were trying to play ball-control as a way to keep Brady & Co. off the field, because it had been demonstrated to be a more successful strategy than being in a shootout.

edit: had to check a fact

Edited by mulluysavage, 07 January 2008 - 07:36 AM.

[DJnVa]

If the game were keep-away, instead of football, the Pats would have been 11-5 this season. There were only 5 games where their opponents held the ball longer than them. The first 3 were:

IND 30:16 NWE 27:44

PHI 32:54 NWE 27:06

BAL 32:11 NWE 27:49

I still don't know if you're agreeing or disagreeing with us.

You have the first game wrong. It was Ind 30:14, NE 29:44. Color me unconcerned about the 30 seconds.

Also, each team gets the same amount of possessions in a game (more or less). If the Patriots are able to move the ball against Jax they will still score their 25+ points. Are you confident that Jax will do the same? Points per possession is more important than time of possession.

Edited by DJnVa, 07 January 2008 - 07:42 AM.

[jsinger121]

John Henderson has a strained hamstring according to Peter King's MMQB.

[CWiggum]

I don't like the Pats D versus the Jags' running game. See: McGahee and the Ravens, Westbrook and the Eagles, Addai and the Colts.

McGahee was the only one of those three guys to hurt the Pats in the 2nd half once adjustments were made. If the Pats run defense that showed up in Baltimore shows up on Saturday night, they might be in for a long game.

In the Belichick spirit of "we're going to take away the 1 thing you like to do best", if the Jags win this weekend, itll have to be because David Garrard wins it for them. Huge ballsy QB draw on 4th down notwithstanding, I'm feeling fairly good about that after watching the Steeler game.

Meanwhile, I love the Pats offense vs. Jags defense matchup. I mean, I love the Pats offense against pretty much any defense, but especially the Jags. Like someone said at the beginning of this thread, spread 'em out and make them match up against Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Watson and Faulk.

[DegenerateSoxFan]

Belichick always gameplans to take away the opponent's biggest strength. I expect to see Harrison up near the line quite a bit, almost an as extra linebacker.

[patinorange]

I can't work up much concern about the Jags.

Big Ben marched down the field in the second half at will, and the Jags offense was almost entirely set up by picks and kick offs.

Brady will have a field day.

I remain concerned about Indy. Manning has the monkey off his back, and if he plays a great game, his offense is the only one that has the potential to out gun the Pats.

I will be rooting hard for San Diego.

[TheoShmeo]

This can be a trap game if the Pats get overconfident and come out sloppy.

The trap game talk cracks me up.

There's what to be concerned about with Jax. They're hard hitting and tough, they just beat a division winner on the road and they have a lot of weapons.

But I find it impossible to believe that the Pats will be cocky or look past these guys. It's not because the Pats are infallible. It's because one of the Pats' strengths is prepartion and taking the entire season, much less the playoffs, in a very methodical, one game at a time, fashion. They talk about that stuff so much that I cannot imagine that it's just window dressing.

Whether it's Belichick or the veterans leaders on that team, one of the things I'm worried is not the Pats getting trapped.

A crappy weather game is another story.

[Phil Nevin 23]

34-23 Pats.

[Nator]

The bye week will be most beneficial to the linebackers. I expect all the 30+ guys to be flying around and making plays.

As much as all that "blueprint" talk we were forced to endure following the Eagles and Ravens games sucked, I think Pittsburgh showed the blueprint for beating the Jags on Saturday night.

Spread 'em thin, and punch it in.

Edited by Nator, 07 January 2008 - 09:52 AM.

[sjrsrini]

I'm not. We haven't seen Watson Neal or Kyle Brady in at least a few weeks, our Oline will look a lot better than it did in the last two games. Gaffney didn't see a lot of playing time the last two games either, and everyone knows there was a lot of forcing the ball to Moss against the Jets and Miami.

I'm a firm believer in the "BB going vanilla to close out the season" wagon. He did what he had to do to win games but didn't open up too much because the plans had to be on the playoffs. Jacksonville didn't impress me in either Indy game, slightly in the first PIttsburgh game, and who else did they play?

Jacksonville has this same schtick every year: Play a 2nd place schedule extremely well, winning the games you're supposed to and losing the games you are dogs in. The best player on their team is out til 08. If Jacksonville keeps this competitive half way through the 3rd I'll be surprised.

34-17 Pats.

I don't buy "BB went vanilla" thing. Don't you have to practice in real games what you are hoping to pull off in play offs? That said, I agree that there was a lot of forcing the ball to Moss and we definitely could not run the Two tight end sets. So, that should definitely help us.

[Groovenstein]

The SportsNation poll for this game asks the question "Which quarterback would you rather have on a potential game-winning drive?" and offers as answer choices Brady and Garrard. As of this post, 10.2% of respondents picked Garrard. I had no idea that such a large number of people had the misfortune of being struck with profound retardation.

Oh, and Pats 31-24.

[bsartist618]

Those are probably the same people that spam ESPN article threads with 'Belicheat' and something about Tom Brady being a deadbeat dad.

Even JAX fans would admit to rather having Brady so that leaves the most extreme 'haters' to fill up that 10%.

[Seels]

- Rotoworld

Yea, we all know he's not missing this game. Without Henderson (and Stroud) the Chargers are are the Bills with worse line backers and a better running game.

[j44thor]

Since when has Pete Carrol become head coach of the Jags?

link

He sounds more like a fan than the head coach of a team that nearly blew an 18pt lead...

Belichick vs. Del Rio is about = to Brady vs. Garrad

Pats win by 17

[genoasalami]

The weather looks good for mid January. Yes it will be chilly, but I do not see the wind being an issue and the chance for precip looks small.

Edited by genoasalami, 07 January 2008 - 11:23 AM.

[MentalDisabldLst]

I thirst for blood.

6 - Titans - Check (Preseason)
5 - Jaguars - TBD
4 - Steelers - Check (12/9)
3 - Chargers - Check (9/16)
2 - Colts - Check (11/4)
1 - That's us, bitches

Just one left on the AFC checklist.

[jsinger121]

I thirst for blood.

6 - Titans - Check (Preseason)
5 - Jaguars - TBD
4 - Steelers - Check (12/9)
3 - Chargers - Check (9/16)
2 - Colts - Check (11/4)
1 - That's us, bitches

Just one left on the AFC checklist.

FYI, the Pats lost 27-24 to the Titans in the Preseason.

[loshjott]

The weather looks good for mid January. Yes it will be chilly, but I do not see the wind being an issue and the chance for precip looks small.

It's weird that a team from Florida is coming to New England in January and it's the home fans hoping for a calm dry day.

[Nator]

FYI, the Pats lost 27-24 to the Titans in the Preseason.

Yeah, but they know they played the Patriots!

I think that blistering shot Rodney gave to Vince Young is what made that game for me.

[Fratboy]

Lets make a bet Fratty. I think its gonna be a blowout

I'm game. You say blowout, I say squeaker.

Terms:

Pats cover = You win
Jags cover = I win

If spread is a whole number, for the purposes of this wager, the number is diminished 0.5, i.e., -11 becomes -11.5

Stakes:

1) We actually hang.
2) Something modest involving alcohol, ~$20 or so.

[bowiac]

Brady stops doing the "gotta get Moss the record, so I'll throw it into triple coverage" thing, and the Pats roll, 48-24.