19 replies to this topic

[David Laurila]

At the Baseball Tavern on January 21, featuring Bill James, Lou Merloni, Mike Pagliarulo and Jerry Trupiano. The will also be a websites roundtable, including Sosh.

Edited by AlNipper49, 22 December 2007 - 10:41 PM.

[TomRicardo]

I wonder if Trupe will show his study on how all fly balls at first seem to be HRs

WAY BACK, WAY BACK, IT COULD BE.... CAUGHT BY DUSTIN PEDROIA IN SHALLOW RIGHT FIELD.

Edited by TomRicardo, 23 December 2007 - 01:24 AM.

[mabrowndog]

It would be great to know who's representing SoSH at this roundtable. I'd like to know who I'm heckling in advance.

[AlNipper49]

Stiffy, Fletch and Ossie are our esteemed representatives.

[Frisbetarian]

Stiffy, Fletch and Ossie are our esteemed representatives.

Lucen's busy?

[redsoxstiff]

Ossie and Fletch are out of the country and I am out of my mind...An interesting suggestion tho'... Three outliers of significant differences...

[OCD SS]

Don't worry, Stiffy. We'll regress anything you say to the mean.

[TomRicardo]

If Lou Merloni can sell himself as a MLB infielder can Brian Rose sell himself as a Major League Starter? I wonder if he can still get some snatch using that.

[MoVaughnsTruck]

I wonder if Trupe will show his study on how all fly balls at first seem to be HRs

WAY BACK, WAY BACK, IT COULD BE.... CAUGHT BY DUSTIN PEDROIA IN SHALLOW RIGHT FIELD.

His replacement this year makes those stale Trup jokes sound especially rancid. And I'm not talking about Dave O'Brien.

I'd be interested in hearing what he has to say.

[David Laurila]

Four shorter presentations have been added to the agenda. They will be by author/sportswriter Maureen Mullen, Indians (and former Red Sox) pitching prospect Randy Newsom, historian Rick Swanson, and Independent Baseball Insider's Bob Wirz.

[David Laurila]

Barring any last-minute changes, here is the schedule for Monday:

10:30 - 11:00: Announcements and 10-minute research presentations

11:00 - 11:45: Jerry Trupiano

11:45 - 12:30: Websites panel

12:30 - 1:30: lunch

1:30 - 1:45: raffle (includes many prizes, including Baseball Prospectus subscriptions)

1:45 - 2:15: 10-minute research presentations

2:15 - 3:00 - Mike Pagliarulo

3:00 – 3:45 – Lou Merloni

3:45 – 4:30 – Bill James

4:30 - 5:00 - socializing

[Rough Carrigan]

I might be able to get to some of the afternoon sessions if I can clear some stuff out of the way at work. I'd especially not want to miss Bill James. Thanks for the schedule, David.

[Rough Carrigan]

Bill James answered a question from every (or nearly every) person in the audience. That was interesting. It was like the SABR version of the Straight Talk Express.

AA Indians pitcher Randy Newsom gave a fascinating talk for his (fascinating) idea, described at this site, www. realinvestments.com, Fascinating idea discussed here!

The basic idea is that "investors" can buy a share of the MLB earnings of a minor league player. The shares will have a maximum take of 4% of the player's MLB salary. In return for granting this portion of his possible future earnings, the player will get an immediate payout from Newsom's company.

He talked about how it would play into fans' interest in trying to pick future stars. He gave some different examples of groups of three unnamed players in the same year and asked the audience which player they would guess to put money down on. In the first, he cited stats of 3 pitchers at the A or AA level, I forget which it was. The first I thought sounded really good. The second didn't sound as good. The third was also intriguing.

Newsom asked how many would put, say, $15 down on the first guy, the second and the third. The third turned out to be Johan Santana. Newsom said that assuming he signs an extension for the amounts being reported, a $15 share of Santana would return $2400 to the "investor". (The first turned out to have been Mark Buehrle. A $15 investment in a share of him would turn out to have returned something like a few hundred dollars, I forget the exact number.)

David's interview with Newsom at Baseball Prospectus is here: Dave Laurila's BP interview with Randy Newsom

Terrific Idea.

Edited by Rough Carrigan, 21 January 2008 - 08:24 PM.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Bill James answered a question from every (or nearly every person in the audience). That was interesting. It was like the SABR version of the Straight Talk Express.

AA Indians pitcher Randy Newsom gave a fascinating talk for his (fascinating) idea, described at this site, www. realinvestments.com, Fascinating idea discussed here!

The basic idea is that "investors" can buy a share of the MLB earnings of a minor league player. The shares will have a maximum take of 4% of the player's MLB salary. In return for granting this portion of his possible future earnings, the player will get an immediate payout from Newsom's company.

He talked about how it would play into fans' interest in trying to pick future stars. He gave some different examples of groups of three unnamed players in the same year and asked the audience which player they would guess to put money down on. In the first, he cited stats of 3 pitchers at the A or AA level, I forget which it was. The first I thought sounded really good. The second didn't sound as good. The third was also intriguing.

Newsom asked how many would put, say, $15 down on the first guy, the second and the third. The third turned out to be Johan Santana. Newsom said that assuming he signs an extension for the amounts being reported, a $15 share of Santana would return $2400 to the "investor". (The first turned out to have been Mark Buehrle. A $15 investment in a share of him would turn out to have returned something like a few hundred dollars, I forget the exact number.)

Isn't this the exact same thing as ProTrade?

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Bill James answered a question from every (or nearly every) person in the audience. That was interesting. It was like the SABR version of the Straight Talk Express.

So, umm, did Bill James say anything interesting?

[Rough Carrigan]

So, umm, did Bill James say anything interesting?

Yeah. He was a bit guarded but he said a few interesting things.

1. In response to someone's question he said that he doesn't like sinkerball pitchers. He basically said that, yeah, there are Lowes and Webbs but that most pitchers who do it just aren't very good. Almost as interesting was his remark that everyone else in the front office seems to like them.

2. He was careful not to indicate which was his position, pro-trade for Santana or anti-trade for Santana but he said that he's been extremely vocal in his position about it. He said, earlier that it's possible to overpay for anyone, including Johan Santana.

3. He was asked for a comp for Lester and quickly cited Ted Lilly, adding, IIRC, that he thought Lester might be a bit better than Lilly.

(Please remember, these are my recollections 6 hours later and not taken from a transcript)

[sibpin]

AA Indians pitcher Randy Newsom gave a fascinating talk for his (fascinating) idea, described at this site, www. realinvestments.com, Fascinating idea discussed here!

The basic idea is that "investors" can buy a share of the MLB earnings of a minor league player. The shares will have a maximum take of 4% of the player's MLB salary. In return for granting this portion of his possible future earnings, the player will get an immediate payout from Newsom's company.

He talked about how it would play into fans' interest in trying to pick future stars. He gave some different examples of groups of three unnamed players in the same year and asked the audience which player they would guess to put money down on. In the first, he cited stats of 3 pitchers at the A or AA level, I forget which it was. The first I thought sounded really good. The second didn't sound as good. The third was also intriguing.

Newsom asked how many would put, say, $15 down on the first guy, the second and the third. The third turned out to be Johan Santana. Newsom said that assuming he signs an extension for the amounts being reported, a $15 share of Santana would return $2400 to the "investor". (The first turned out to have been Mark Buehrle. A $15 investment in a share of him would turn out to have returned something like a few hundred dollars, I forget the exact number.)

David's interview with Newsom at Baseball Prospectus is here: Dave Laurila's BP interview with Randy Newsom

Terrific Idea.

I love the idea, but I think a starting point of $50k for 4% of a player's MLB salary is far too high. Yes, the risk of that being too high gets passed on to the investors, but if a lot of investors lose money early on, I don't think RSI will be able to get investors to match whatever they are offering the players now. As with many businesses, RSI will need some early and/or big success to ensure their stability.

A quick and dirty calculation of player salaries shows that the break-even point of $1.25M in salary earned would take 3 full years for a player who starts playing in 2008 ($390k starting salary) and receives a $25k increase from season to season. This assumes that player salaries increase at the same rate as a Treasury bond or some other safe investment. How many minor league players end up being on major league payrolls for three full seasons? Then, how many of them are going to sign a contract with RSI? The nature of markets in general should theoretically resolve all the questions I have, but I feel like RSI won't be able to operate like a free market without tremendous amounts of participation (player and investor), accessibility, and publicity. I doubt even with a price tailored specifically to the player's expected lifetime major league salary that they will be able to recruit a player who goes on to have tremendous success in the major leagues, which would be the necessary catalyst for people to get interested in RSI.

One of the hidden upsides of RSI in theory would be that it could help owners better identify talented general managers. Investors would need to figure out which players would be the safest bet to make the majors and stay there. A successful investor who is able to consistently beat the market would need the same skillset required by great GMs.

Edited by sibpin, 22 January 2008 - 12:41 AM.

[Rough Carrigan]

Right now, they have no players signed up for this but Newsom himself. I won't give him money, not till the thing is proven to not be just a way for him to get money to himself, though I think it will include other players soon.

Each share is $20 plus fees etc so that the total cost per share was about $24.