593 replies to this topic

[PedroKsBambino]

Assuming the Twins actually want to trade Santana...
I think Smith could have taken the best "Hughes" package that the Yankees had to offer, or the best "Ellsbury" package the Sox offered.
I won't claim to know exactly what (or who) was attached to these deals, but I find it hard to believe waiting around for potential suitors to show up is going to produce a better deal.

All this comment really says is you think he should take less than he wants, though. There's no question he could have taken either of those offers, but apparently he values Santana more highly than that, and I'm not sure he's wrong to do so. This doesn't really provide a critique of how he approached things so much as how he values Santana, seems to me.

[Lollardfish]

I doubt the Sox have missed out on an offer for Coco that they really liked because they are waiting. Not dealing him right away lets some of the other options sign away (Jones, Hunter) and maybe teams that realize they're not going ot land Rowand suddenly get more motivated to deal. That's the point where the Sox will have to tell the Twins "Hey, we've got this other deal..."

There's a reason Boras tends to hold out until quite a few teams are off the table...

No, but once Coco is gone, the Red Sox no longer match up with the Twins. On the flip side, once Rowand is signed, the Yankees no longer have an obvious CF to pursue if they deal Melky (and yeah yeah, they could put Damon back in center. Please do!). So there are a few time pressures here for the Twins to make a deal with the AL East.

The LA teams will remain viable throughout, it seems to me, as their CI, OF, and SP prospects ought to still be with the club in spring training.

[Ananti]

Assuming the Twins actually want to trade Santana...
I think Smith could have taken the best "Hughes" package that the Yankees had to offer, or the best "Ellsbury" package the Sox offered.
I won't claim to know exactly what (or who) was attached to these deals, but I find it hard to believe waiting around for potential suitors to show up is going to produce a better deal.

Yes, basically the Twins wasted a lot of teams' time because they tried to keep everyone in the discussion even though they knew all along that those teams weren't going to give up what it would take for the Twins to trade him. The Twins weren't going to trade Santana unless they got Hughes and Kennedy from NY or Ellsbury and Lester from the Sox, but they implied to both teams that they would consider trading him for something less (because being upfront would have led to those teams walking away immediately) and requested that these teams offer alternative packages, not because there was any chance the were going to say yes to any of them, but just to keep them in the conversation to build a "feeding frenzy".

After the umpteenth different package got rejected, the Yankees figured out that the Twins were lying when they said they'd consider a lesser package, and walked away, and then the Red Sox realized the same thing 2 days later.

On the other hand, the Marlins did it the right way, they were up front with teams about what the price was, so a lot of teams just walked away. But it also meant the teams that does not walk away are the teams that have a real chance to complete the deal.

[JohnMal]

All this comment really says is you think he should take less than he wants, though. There's no question he could have taken either of those offers, but apparently he values Santana more highly than that, and I'm not sure he's wrong to do so. This doesn't really provide a critique of how he approached things so much as how he values Santana, seems to me.

I agree. I am being critical of how he values Santana and how he related that to possible transactions. The market determines price. Smith thinking it should be higher, doesn't really mean anything. If he intends to complete a trade, he will have to adjust value for the market. This dance he has done has accomplished nothing.

[Arock78]

I agree. I am being critical of how he values Santana and how he related that to possible transactions. The market determines price. Smith thinking it should be higher, doesn't really mean anything. If he intends to complete a trade, he will have to adjust value for the market. This dance he has done has accomplished nothing.

Look, if he has to trade Santana for the best deal he can get, he shouldn't settle for less than he thinks he could get. What he thinks he should get is completely irrelevant. As such, he's going to posture, and the waiting game might be a part of that.

If he doesn't have to make a trade, then he has the opportunity to field offers, and it makes absolutely no sense to take anything less than the best he can get. Until multiple teams get involved, the market can't really determine Santana's value. Thus, before that happens, he should only accept an offer that he really likes (i.e. nothing on the table at that point).

My guess is that he's posturing as though he doesn't have to make a trade at all, as if he has all the time in the world. The window hasn't closed for him, so it makes no sense not to see if something happens to make things break his way.

[Resonance Wright]

If the Twins wait a bit, they give Hank Steinbrenner a chance to get back into it without looking like a complete flip-flopper. He made an amateur, imperious move and it, like so many things that he's done so far, doesn't seem to have helped the Yankees out. (Of course, it could be that he really means it, right? Right? Yeah, I didn't think so either) His ego seems to matter there. So you wait a bit for a few story cycles then if he gets back in he can spin it as 'hey, they reached out to us' or something and get back into it without everyone going 'When Hank Steinbrenner says no it's meaningless'.

If the Yankees get back in, Twins probably get more. There's a risk but he probably feels like he has to score big if he makes the trade.

I wouldn't be surprised if that's how Smith is thinking.

[67WasBest]

I apologize if this has been asked previously, but I haven't seen it yet.

Is it not possible, even likely, a team has expressed interest in Santana but required more time to get pieces to backfill what they may trade? The Dodgers are 1 such team I can see doing this. It would be a financial hardship for them in 2008, but this is a team that is shedding a ton of payroll next year and has a very good base of kids coming along. Here is a list of their expiring contracts:

Furcal - $13M
Lowe - $10M
Kent - $9M
Garciaparra - $8.5M
Penny - $8.5M (if they choose to not exercise their $8.75M option, $2M buyout)
Loaiza - $7M (if they chose not to exercise $7.5M option, $0.375 buyout)

The remainder of their roster is loaded with low cost, talented kids. They could offer Kemp, Kershaw, Laroche, plus another and be competitive with the Sox package.

[SoxFanSince57]

Is it not possible, even likely, a team has expressed interest in Santana but required more time to get pieces to backfill what they may trade? The Dodgers are one such team I can see doing this. It would be a financial hardship for them in 2008, but this is a team that is shedding a ton of payroll next year and has a very good base of kids coming along.
…The remainder of their roster is loaded with low cost, talented kids. They could offer Kemp, Kershaw, Laroche, plus another and be competitive with the Sox package.

While the Dodgers have a boat load of young talent that could address many of the Twins needs, the vast majority of reports indicate that Dodger GM Ned Colletti is more interested in pursuing other pitching options at this time. As of today, the first target for the Dodgers is Japanese free-agent pitcher Hiroki Kuroda. As I understand it both the Dodgers and the Mariners have made contract offers to Kuroda. In addition to Kuroda, the Dodgers have been rumored to be interested in Erik Bedard, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and even Ben Sheets. Johan Santana is not getting the same level of attention as these other pitchers.

The Dodgers could in the end go after Santana, because they have many of the players the Twins would want. The Dodgers have solid 2B prospects in Chin-Lung Hu and Tony Abreu. The Dodgers have mentioned moving 3B prospect Andy LaRoche in other trade discussions so he could be made part of a Santana package. And the Dodgers have two very high profile pitching prospects in James McDonald and Clayton Kershaw (ready in '09-'10). Finally, the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp could play CF, but he is better suited to corner outfield. CF Juan Pierre is now displaced by the acquisition of A. Jones, but Pierre is “not so good” and his contract is a killer for the Twins (or anyone). Outside of not matching up too well in CF, the Dodgers have the pieces the Twins would like. And who knows if the Dodgers and Twins pulled off this deal, the Twins could come back to the Sox for Coco Crisp and see if there is a reliever the Sox would want.

But, bottom line, I would be very surprised if the Dodgers made a move for Santana.

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 07 December 2007 - 01:17 PM.

[MentalDisabldLst]

Look, if he has to trade Santana for the best deal he can get, he shouldn't settle for less than he thinks he could get. What he thinks he should get is completely irrelevant. As such, he's going to posture, and the waiting game might be a part of that.

If he doesn't have to make a trade, then he has the opportunity to field offers, and it makes absolutely no sense to take anything less than the best he can get. Until multiple teams get involved, the market can't really determine Santana's value. Thus, before that happens, he should only accept an offer that he really likes (i.e. nothing on the table at that point).

I couldn't agree more with this, I think this is exactly the way to view it.

However, the other consideration you're ignoring is the possibility that, by waiting to try and get additional offers or "see how it plays out", there is downside risk - such as the risk that the Sox trade Coco and proceed along other lines, or the risk that the Yankees sign or trade for a few pitchers and no longer need Santana (yeah right) or, perhaps more conceivably, decide that "Trade the farm and spend big bucks to sign a big name" is no longer their preferred strategy. These downside risks are real and there is definitely a tipping point beyond which waiting is a negative play for the Twins.

I'm not saying we've reached that yet - nobody can say that - but somewhere out there a clock IS ticking for them.

[Otis Foster]

I couldn't agree more with this, I think this is exactly the way to view it.

However, the other consideration you're ignoring is the possibility that, by waiting to try and get additional offers or "see how it plays out", there is downside risk - such as the risk that the Sox trade Coco and proceed along other lines, or the risk that the Yankees sign or trade for a few pitchers and no longer need Santana (yeah right) or, perhaps more conceivably, decide that "Trade the farm and spend big bucks to sign a big name" is no longer their preferred strategy. These downside risks are real and there is definitely a tipping point beyond which waiting is a negative play for the Twins.

I'm not saying we've reached that yet - nobody can say that - but somewhere out there a clock IS ticking for them.

This is the real risk. It's like a 2-way game of musical chairs. The sellers run the risk that the eligible buyers shop elsewhere and are no longer needy, meaning the remaining buyers begin to low ball, because the demand side has been slimmed down. The high-ceiling buyers on the other hand - meaning those with a pressing need - run the risk that they overplay their hand, and someone else takes the best arms off the market, reducing the supply side.

The Sox are presently in a nice position. They don't really need Santana, as good as he may be. The Yankees do, or someone like him and equally pricey. They gain a lot just by hanging around, raising Minn expectations. Of course they'll take him in the right deal, but their main alternative objective - screwing the Yankees - can be achieved simply by keeping Minn demands high.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

The Sox are presently in a nice position. They don't really need Santana, as good as he may be. The Yankees do, or someone like him and equally pricey. They gain a lot just by hanging around, raising Minn expectations. Of course they'll take him in the right deal, but their main alternative objective - screwing the Yankees - can be achieved simply by keeping Minn demands high.

The downside, however, is that until the Santana situation is resolved, they can't trade Crisp. So, all else equal, I think its in the Red Sox interests for Santana to be traded sooner rather than later.

[Otis Foster]

The downside, however, is that until the Santana situation is resolved, they can't trade Crisp. So, all else equal, I think its in the Red Sox interests for Santana to be traded sooner rather than later.

That's true, but with Andruw off the market, Crisp's value - a combination of cmparative skills and controllable cost - measured against the value of other available FA or tradeable CFs, is quite high, even though on an absolute scale there are questions about his future. He's less of a wasting asset in that view than Santana, given Crisp's modest cost and the enormous cost of extending Johan and the few teams that can absorb that.

Before you jump me, I am by no means diminishing Santana's absolute value, which is far beyond Crisp's, just that other circumstances dictate whether his relative value diminishes more or less quickly than Santana's. I don't think it does, and if that's correct, Smith is more at risk than Theo in waiting this out.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Smith has handled this pretty poorly, in my opinion.

Disagree. Let's remember that the Twins are not the Red Sox - they are not expected to compete for the championship every year. The Twins keeping Santana might very well be Smith's best play - they will be better off next season than with any of the other packages, and they might even be able to make some sort of run at the playoffs. That would be good for the Twins, even if they lose Santana to free agency and suck for the next five years later.

Interesting negotiation because no one really has any leverage over any other party (with the possible exception of the MFYs, but who knows what they are thinking because they are apparently being led by an insane person).

[satyadaimoku]

they will be better off next season than with any of the other packages, and they might even be able to make some sort of run at the playoffs

...and the Twins making the playoffs next year is a totally plausible possibility. We're talking about a team that has arguably the best pitcher in baseball, arguably the best closer in baseball, a lineup with three high upside offensive talents in Morneau, Mauer and Delmon Young, and Francisco Liriano returning to the rotation in 2008. With some smart moves and if they catch a few breaks, this team could totally compete in 2008 even without Hunter, Silva and Garza. That's the part of this thing that I've never understood - with the team that they have right now, why are the Twins sellers? They should be making their run now.

[LoweSox]

...and the Twins making the playoffs next year is a totally plausible possibility. We're talking about a team that has arguably the best pitcher in baseball, arguably the best closer in baseball, a lineup with three high upside offensive talents in Morneau, Mauer and Delmon Young, and Francisco Liriano returning to the rotation in 2008. With some smart moves and if they catch a few breaks, this team could totally compete in 2008 even without Hunter, Silva and Garza. That's the part of this thing that I've never understood - with the team that they have right now, why are the Twins sellers? They should be making their run now.

SI called them a dynasty on the verge in spring training of '05 or '06 (I forget). In that time Morneau has exploded, Mauer's grown, Liriano was a better surprise than expected and now they have a former number one pick--Young--who was incredibly explosive in the minor leagues (before literally exploding, perhaps showing the hole in his game that is his attitude). These guys might not seem as good as the Tigers right now, but we're also judging them minus-Santana, which is a big deal maker.

[amarshal2]

...Because realistically they're a pretty distant third in that division. 6 players does not a team make. It's hard to find any other players on their roster who are expected to be above average regulars beyond a couple bullpen arms and maybe Scott Baker (noting that Delmon is below average). I'm not sure there's more than 2 or 3 spots on the entire 25 man roster where they have a clear edge on the Indians. They should be trying to sell Johan and Nathan for a king's ransom because it is in their best interest long-term. Only getting 2 draft picks for Johan would be terrible mismanagement IMO.

The only argument here is that "anything can happen." Which is true. However it would be a terrible idea to make a decision regarding Johan on the premise that anything can happen.

Edited by amarshal2, 08 December 2007 - 02:10 PM.

[TheYellowDart5]

...and the Twins making the playoffs next year is a totally plausible possibility. We're talking about a team that has arguably the best pitcher in baseball, arguably the best closer in baseball, a lineup with three high upside offensive talents in Morneau, Mauer and Delmon Young, and Francisco Liriano returning to the rotation in 2008. With some smart moves and if they catch a few breaks, this team could totally compete in 2008 even without Hunter, Silva and Garza. That's the part of this thing that I've never understood - with the team that they have right now, why are the Twins sellers? They should be making their run now.

I don't buy it. The offense outside of Mauer, Morneau, and possibly Young is anemic at best. There's no guarantee that Liriano will come back at full strength. The back end of the rotation is suspect, and the only reliable non-Nathan option in the bullpen is Neshek, who was used very heavily last season.

As it stands, Detroit's offense is worlds better, and Cleveland has better pitching and hitting. I just don't see Minnesota making a playoff push, Santana or not.

Edited by TheYellowDart5, 08 December 2007 - 02:08 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

... which is why the Twins of the baseball world are in a quandry. Do they keep Santana and try to add a CF and hope that the pices fall into place, or sell off and rebuild from scratch? By the time they do the latter, will Morneau and/or Mauer even be there, or will their time to leave come up and force Minnesota to deal them as well?

I understand the get a boatload of players instead of draft picks argument, but where does it lead a team such as the Twins, when Cleveland is clearly stronger organizationally right now and the Tigers have shown the willingness to do anything to win? "Rebuilding" for Minnesota means more years fighting off the White Sox and Royals in the 3-5 spots in the division, and what good is that, even with a Hughes or an Ellsbury?

If the stars are aligning and you don't have an owner willing to pony up, you have to go for it. You have to take that shot that the injured will heal, the role players will contribute and the team leaders will produce. And if that means keeping Santana until July 31 to see where it shakes out, that's what you have to do.

[satyadaimoku]

6 players does not a team make. It's hard to find any other players on their roster who are expected to be above average regulars beyond a couple bullpen arms and maybe Scott Baker (noting that Delmon is below average).

I think what killed the Twins last year are three things, in order:

1) Liriano's injury
2) The 1,382 at bats they gave to Nick Punto (.562 OPS), Jason Tyner (.686 OPS), Luis Rodriguez (.584 OPS), Rondell White (.556 OPS), and Jeff Cirillo (.704 as a DH).
3) the relatively disappointing seasons from Mauer and Morneau.

The first and the third, the Twins just have to cross their fingers and hope that things work out, but it isn't an unrealistic possibility that Liriano will bounce back, or that Mauer and Morneau will return to their 140 OPS+ ability. But if they could replace the dregs of their offensive roster with even league average players, that would make a huge improvement. In any given offseason, the easiest team to upgrade is the team that has a solid collection of starts but massive weaknesses at a few positions. If they had a creative GM who could find a way to vulture a league average 3B, CF, DH and one more starter I think they'd be in great shape.

[E5 Yaz]

If they had a creative GM who could find a way to vulture a league average 3B, CF, DH and one more starter I think they'd be in great shape.

Lamb, Crisp (in a non-Santana deal), Piazza and someone of the Batshit level? That might be more buzzard's luck than vulture, though.

[PedroKsBambino]

If they had a creative GM who could find a way to vulture a league average 3B, CF, DH and one more starter I think they'd be in great shape.

I did a breakdown earlier this offseason of replacing these spots with available, average-ish guys and a modest rebound for Mauer, Morneau, and Liriano and they end up in the low 90s in wins, roughly. I think the problem they face now is that with Cabrera and Willis (to a much lesser degree) in Detroit that is even less likely to get them to the playoffs than it was a week ago---the Tigers probably picked up 2-3 wins in that deal. Effectively, Minnesota is competing to finish no worse than second amongst themselves, the AL East runner-up, Cleveland and Detroit. Plus the possibility of someone in the West getting there, I guess. That's just a tough situation from where they are right now and makes it more appealing to deal Santana and Nathan than it was previously.

[SoxFanSince57]

... the Twins were said to be leaning toward a package of Ellsbury, infield prospect Jed Lowrie and relief prospect Justin Masterson, with the sides haggling over a fourth player.

http://www.startribu...s/12337791.html

For those who advocate the trade, I believe that this bodes well for the Sox. It will be interesting to see the quality of the fourth player.

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 11 December 2007 - 01:39 AM.

[PedroSpecialK]

From the same piece:

Meanwhile, the Twins' talks with the Yankees remained dormant. According to a person close to the talks, Yankees lefthander Kei Igawa was one of several players the sides discussed last week, along with righthander Phil Hughes and center fielder Melky Cabrera.

Brian Cashman needs to be awarded with Executive of the Year if he's able to land Santana with a package of Hughes, Cabrera and Igawa. I just can't see them getting it done without including Kennedy. If we can get away with something like Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, and Brandon Moss or Kris Johnson I'd be ecstatic.

[bsj]

Just posted on the news thread...

My cousin, one of the producers for The Michael Kay Show, sent me this:

"ESPN the Magazine Senior Writer Buster Olney says the Santana-to-the-Red-Sox deal will definitely get done.
Apparently the Twins will go for the deal involving Jacoby Ellsbury and not Clay. Once it happens, Boston could have a rotation where Johan Santana will pitch the second game of a playoff series. "

If this isn't "new news" or post worthy, please remove and my apologies.

Not sure how much weight to give this considering the source had Clay Buchholz in a deal when we all know Lester is the guy in the other proposal...

[TheoShmeo]

Assuming the deal gets done around Ellsbury and not Lester, it will be interesting to see what the Sox will do with seven starters. I don't think Theo will be quick to deal any of them in light of how dealing "excess" starting pitching worked out in 2006 and his comments thereafter about what he learned from that experience.

FWIW, Buster Olney in the article linked in the Santana news thread assumes that the 5th spot would be Wakefield/Buchholz. I'd like to see Wake in the pen given that he needed to go on the DL for long stretches during the last two seasons, and it's possible that shorter outings would be less burdensome for him.

But even assuming that (or substituting one Lester and Buchholz into the pen), what would be the plan? Wait to see if one of the starters gets hurt during the Spring? If not, go to a 6-man rotation? Or put two of Buchholz, Wake and Lester in the pen? Or start one of Buchholz and Lester in Pawtucket? Or might Theo go against what he said after the Arroyo experience and trade one of Buchholz and Lester? I seriously doubt that he'll take the last option, but no other choice is obvious. That fact is a classic "high class" problem, of course, and it's one that I hope Theo and Tito are forced to confront.

[Ananti]

He's not trading either one, next year is the last year for Schilling and may very well be the last year for Wake.
He'll put up with a little excess in 2008 for 2009 and beyond

[PedroKsBambino]

Just posted on the news thread...
Not sure how much weight to give this considering the source had Clay Buchholz in a deal when we all know Lester is the guy in the other proposal...

Here's my 'people go way, way, way too far in thinking they know what's going on here' rant of the day.

We read a bunch of stories that Lester and not Buchholz was rumored. That could well be completely false. We also know that no deal built around Lester actually happened, which can suggest to us that he isn't enough to get a deal done, perhaps, and that other permutations are being considered.

So I don't see much reason to discount the source based on Buchholz being mentioned. We've heard consistently that Buchholz wasn't on the table...we heard the same about Phil Hughes, too, until one day he wasn't untouchable anymore. Things happen.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

Here's my 'people go way, way, way too far in thinking they know what's going on here' rant of the day.

We read a bunch of stories that Lester and not Buchholz was rumored. That could well be completely false. We also know that no deal built around Lester actually happened, which can suggest to us that he isn't enough to get a deal done, perhaps, and that other permutations are being considered.

So I don't see much reason to discount the source based on Buchholz being mentioned. We've heard consistently that Buchholz wasn't on the table...we heard the same about Phil Hughes, too, until one day he wasn't untouchable anymore. Things happen.

Except that you have to think the deal would have been consumated at the Winter Meetings if Buchholz had been on the table.

Edited by BCsMightyJoeYoung, 11 December 2007 - 03:32 PM.

[glennhoffmania]

Here's my 'people go way, way, way too far in thinking they know what's going on here' rant of the day.

We read a bunch of stories that Lester and not Buchholz was rumored. That could well be completely false. We also know that no deal built around Lester actually happened, which can suggest to us that he isn't enough to get a deal done, perhaps, and that other permutations are being considered.

So I don't see much reason to discount the source based on Buchholz being mentioned. We've heard consistently that Buchholz wasn't on the table...we heard the same about Phil Hughes, too, until one day he wasn't untouchable anymore. Things happen.

True, but the only source for this rumor is some producer of the Michael Kay Show. Meanwhile, the other articles and blogs talk about deals with either Lester or Ellsbury.

If this latest rumor is true, and the Twins choose the Ellsbury package, I'll be thrilled. Coco+Lester>Ellsbury, in my opinion.

[jose melendez]

Igawa? IGAWA? Is this why they signed Carl Pavano to a minor league deal? So they could include him too?

On what planet is including Igawa upgrading a package?

So here's the question from the Sox standpoint. Since it doesn't seem like the SOx have sweetened their offer ( the 4th player is still a ?) what has changed.

Moreover, since the Twins were reportedly more interested in the Lester deal before, why have they leaned this way?

[doc]

Except that you have to think the deal would have been consumated at the Winter Meetings if Buchholz had been on the table.

Well that depends on what else was in the package, with I am an Idiot if he was offered.

[Bowlerman9]

Except that you have to think the deal would have been consumated at the Winter Meetings if Buchholz had been on the table.

This is pure speculation based on absolutely no knowledge.

Minnesota very well may have asked for a package around Ellsbury and/or Buchholz.

Maybe the Sox, wanting to keep Buchholz more than Ellsbury, offered Buchholz/Crisp/Kalish in one package, Lester/etc in a second, and Ellsbury/etc in a third. That way they can have Buchholz if they want, but it was the weakest of the 3 initial offers.

So no, I believe Buchholz may have been on the table with the much stronger offer involving Ellsbury and/or Lester,

[PedroKsBambino]

The point would be that since a deal wasn't consummated at the winter meetings based on Lester being on the table that it's possible Buchholz was now being discussed. Which doesn't mean 'definitely traded' only 'discussed'

I don't personally think the Sox will trade Buchholz for Santana, mind you, but that's just an opinion based on my guess at the Sox valuation of him and what the Twins are seeking here. I think it's kind of silly to speak of these things in absolute terms. We don't know who was offered, who was requested, and so forth and a bunch of overlapping reports doesn't change that in my view.

Edited by PedroKsBambino, 11 December 2007 - 03:44 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

http://espn-edge.and..._12112007_3.mp3

Buster Olney talking with Mike Greenberg this morning. It starts about halfway through, so you have to get past Greenberg ballwashing Peter King, but Olney makes it very clear that this is a Red Sox/Twins deal

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Speaking (writing?) as someone who believes that Jon Lester is the most underrated Red Sox player on this site, I would think that a trade of Ellsbury for Santana might lead to Clay starting the season in Pawtucket. Which would be fine with me.

On the other hand, this could lead to another deal down the road, since the team still needs offensive help in my opinion.

[bankshot1]

So here's the question from the Sox standpoint. Since it doesn't seem like the SOx have sweetened their offer ( the 4th player is still a ?) what has changed

Probably just the passage of time and no new blockbuster packages from another team has emerged. Basically the Twins options are narrowing and everyone knows it.

If the Sox are truly interested Santana bidders (as opposed to being just interested in keeping him from the MFY) these would be positive developments, because we've been led to believe either the Elllsbury or Lester packages were the Twins favored offer, and they are both still on the table. And if they are really interested they will keep these offers alive (and don't dick around switching names) and I'd expect pretty soon the Twins will chose the Sox deal that best suits them.

Edited by bankshot1, 11 December 2007 - 04:28 PM.

[PooNani]

If the Mets dont pull the trigger on a Gomez/Pelfrey/Humber/Mulvey/Guerra deal, they're fucking insane. Talk about quantity over quality.

[E5 Yaz]

If the Mets dont pull the trigger on a Gomez/Pelfrey/Humber/Mulvey/Guerra deal, they're fucking insane. Talk about quantity over quality.

Quality over quantity?

The post-collapse Mets reek of desperation. If they believe Bedard or Haren will come much more cheaply than Santana, they're fooling themselves.

[PooNani]

Quality over quantity?

The post-collapse Mets reek of desperation. If they believe Bedard or Haren will come much more cheaply than Santana, they're fooling themselves.

which is exactly why this deal makes too much sense. if youre going to trade away Milledge for two older "veteran" players, you know you're going for broke. If you can keep Martinez, and trade away all the flawed and overhyped pitchers, you do it in a heartbeat.

[DJnVa]

Obviously I have nothing to base this on, but if the teams are down to haggling over a 4th player, wouldn't you have to assume it's almost done? They've apparently settled on who they want as the centerpiece, so I can't imagine the 4th prospect is going to hold-up this trade from either side when it comes right down to it.

Sox add Kalish, Twins throw in some Single A guy. Sox refuse to add him, and add a lesser prospect instead, Twins don't add anyone.

[E5 Yaz]

which is exactly why this deal makes too much sense. if youre going to trade away Milledge for two older "veteran" players, you know you're going for broke. If you can keep Martinez, and trade away all the flawed and overhyped pitchers, you do it in a heartbeat.

I've thought from the beginning that, all things considered, the Mets or Dodgers have made the most sense for Minnesota. The Dodgers, apparently, are close to signing the Japanese pitcher Kuroda. Omar has to do this, or that aging window is going to close

Obviously I have nothing to base this on, but if the teams are down to haggling over a 4th player, wouldn't you have to assume it's almost done? They've apparently settled on who they want as the centerpiece, so I can't imagine the 4th prospect is going to hold-up this trade from either side when it comes right down to it.

Which is why I think the Twins really want to send Santana to the NL. The "fourth player," whether with the Red Sox or Yankees seems an unlikely holdup at this stage

Edited by E5 Yaz, 11 December 2007 - 10:40 PM.

[ScubaSteveAvery]

Which is why I think the Twins really want to send Santana to the NL. The "fourth player," whether with the Red Sox or Yankees seems an unlikely holdup at this stage

Or they are just trying to hold out for the best value. For a team like the Twins, that 4th prospect may actually play a pivotal role on their team in a couple of years. I think Smith knows that this return is lower than he thought he was going to get and now he has every right to hold up over a 4th player. This is where Smith has the most leverage. I seriously doubt Theo would walk away from the best pitcher in the game over a 4th player.

[JimD]

I think Smith knows that this return is lower than he thought he was going to get and now he has every right to hold up over a 4th player. This is where Smith has the most leverage. I seriously doubt Theo would walk away from the best pitcher in the game over a 4th player.

I disagree - I think Theo & Co. would absolutely walk away from the deal if the Twins are pushing for too much. Santana is a want for the Sox, not a need.

[TheoShmeo]

Obviously I have nothing to base this on, but if the teams are down to haggling over a 4th player, wouldn't you have to assume it's almost done? They've apparently settled on who they want as the centerpiece, so I can't imagine the 4th prospect is going to hold-up this trade from either side when it comes right down to it.

Sox add Kalish, Twins throw in some Single A guy. Sox refuse to add him, and add a lesser prospect instead, Twins don't add anyone.

This sounds right to me intuitively. If they're down to the short strokes, it should get done.

On the other hand, if the accounts we're basing this on are to be believed, and the Sox and Twins have been haggling over the fourth player for several days, it suggests that both sides are being extremely patient and cautious, and maybe both sides have a lot invested in "winning" the negotiation, which could lead to a stalemate. To state the obvious, in any negotiation, if the parties aren't truly motivated to get the deal done, there's a risk of the deal dying. It wouldn't be surprising if another team swooped in during the middle of the dickering, either.

My strong gut is that you're right. But it seems odd that it's taking this long to put this to bed and a line in one of the articles Corsi linked -- "the Sox are buying a Gulf Stream and negotiating for a $10 reduction in the payments" -- struck me as both simplistic and on the money, if that's possible.