440 replies to this topic

[iheartpetey]

which part? that you could strongly argue kennedy over lester, cabrera over crisp, and tabata over lowrie? or the inconceivable part?

I'll take the bait: Do you really think many independent personnel evaluators would think those three things?

[January]

which part? that you could strongly argue kennedy over lester, cabrera over crisp, and tabata over lowrie? or the inconceivable part?

The former I believe. Really, I think you know this. There are some arguments that can be made, but Lowrie > Tabata is a no-brainer.

I think the difficulty for the Yankee's at the moment is that they have inconveniently sized trade pieces. The have some BIG pieces, but Kennedy is their only mid-size one really. Melky doesn't count for much and I don't think they are that interested in players that are rather far away like Tabata(a good prospect, but the twins would be having retention problems with Morneu and their current players before he was ready, and there is a fair bit of risk with players that young.) It's a little hard to get change in these types of things.

Edited by January, 30 November 2007 - 12:21 AM.

[iheartpetey]

Oh sweet... what a narcissistic point of view.

Clowns over there.

The whole commentary's pretty ridiculous... they completely ignore the fact that Crisp can be spun for other prospects, and his market value's extremely high right now. And Coco's got significantly more value to the majority of teams in baseball than Melky, IMO, even if not to the Twins.

[jodyreeddudley78]

As to the first piece that I highlighted, it may be that Minny has received what they judge to be a satisfactory proposal, but still think they can do better. Or, in the parlance of eBay, the reserve has been met but neither team has offered the "Buy It Now" package, and there's no real reason for the Twins to shut the bidding down early, particularly if they think they can involve one or more teams that lose out on the Cabrerra sweepstakes.

I agree that they think this. That being said, I don't see why they make a trade before the winter meetings. I actually think that the Twins have handled this just about perfectly. They have the Sox and Yanks in a potential bidding war, and it is not even Dec. The Twins have never struck me as a dumb organization. I realize that they have some new people there now, but did the Garza trade strike anyone as a dumb move. I believe the Garza/Young trade set the table for the Twins in an offseason that is likely to see them move Santana and Nathan(Orange County's own). At some point the Angels and Dodgers may tire of the reported Marlins procrastination and decide to test the water.

From their point of view, one of the offers may have to get it done.

This may be true, but somehow I doubt it.

[EvilEmpire]

I'll take the bait: Do you really think many independent personnel evaluators would think those three things?

Depending on what a team was looking for, sure.

Cabrera over Crisp based on youth, price and offensive upside at the expense of defense.
Kennedy over Lester based on consistency over greater upside and control issues.
Tabata over Lowrie based on upside.

There isn't a question in my mind that a case could be made for each player depending on what a team valued more. The idea that the packages are so far apart as to be "laughable" is ridiculous and about the same quality of analysis found on nnyfans.

[Rough Carrigan]

What makes you think Santana would choose Boston over staying in Minnesota for a season and then hitting the open market where New York would be waiting for him with a blank check and open arms? Let's say New York refuses to include Hughes and Minnesota goes to Plan B, which is Boston's offer. There is no guarantee Santana would accept the trade.

One word: Injury.
If he signs a new contract before throwing a pitch in April 2008 then he's getting >$100 million guaranteed. If not, one errant clod of dirt on a mound some rainy night in Kansas City that makes him deliver the ball a bit differently and -presto-. $100 million disappears. If you were him, wouldn't you like to get the contract done now? If you were his agent, don't you want him to get the contract done now?

[Jack Sox]

The whole commentary's pretty ridiculous... they completely ignore the fact that Crisp can be spun for other prospects, and his market value's extremely high right now. And Coco's got significantly more value to the majority of teams in baseball than Melky, IMO, even if not to the Twins.

The thing is, people all over the place are pretending like the Sox offer is some sort of sub-standard package. It's not. There's a reason teams with strong talent evaluation are high on Jon Lester, it's because he has some serious potential. I don't think it's a stretch in the slightest that a team would prefer him to Ian Kennedy. Same with Crisp to Cabrera. I'm not sold on the fact the Twins believe Melky is all that viable in CF whereas they're clearly pretty high on Coco. And Jed Lowrie quite frankly offers something unique to the Twins that essentially nothing in a Yankee package can - a ML ready middle infielder with good offensive potential.

By all accounts the Twins are interested in players who can contribute in 2008. Players like Tabata and Jackson, while they may have higher potential, simply won't be ready by then.

[EvilEmpire]

By all accounts the Twins are interested in players who can contribute in 2008. Players like Tabata and Jackson, while they may have higher potential, simply won't be ready by then.

Are the Twins really trying to compete in 2008?

[PooNani]

EvilEmpire summed up my feelings, but Jack Sox....why is it "clear" that they're pretty high on Coco (and not Melky)? Because statements about possible proposals leaked by team officials (from one of the sides) to the beat writers makes it so?

If there is some so-called worry on the Twins side about guys flaming out, and wanting more of a sure thing (as in, Lowrie over Jackson/Tabata or Coco over Melky), why would anyone pick Lester over Kennedy? Again, i think they are very similar in value, unless you're going to go crazy over a good start in the playoffs against an offense that was dead

Then again, i'm not sure that any of these proposals are completely legit (and acceptable by the Twins' standards), so i'm going to hesitate to get worked up about it until it seems more etched in stone

Edited by PooNani, 30 November 2007 - 12:28 AM.

[iheartpetey]

The thing is, people all over the place are pretending like the Sox offer is some sort of sub-standard package. It's not. There's a reason teams with strong talent evaluation are high on Jon Lester, it's because he has some serious potential. I don't think it's a stretch in the slightest that a team would prefer him to Ian Kennedy. Same with Crisp to Cabrera. I'm not sold on the fact the Twins believe Melky is all that viable in CF whereas they're clearly pretty high on Coco. And Jed Lowrie quite frankly offers something unique to the Twins that essentially nothing in a Yankee package can - a ML ready middle infielder with good offensive potential.

By all accounts the Twins are interested in players who can contribute in 2008. Players like Tabata and Jackson, while they may have higher potential, simply won't be ready by then.

I think the majority of people would prefer Lester to Kennedy. Don't get me wrong, I think Kennedy's a safe bet to be a solid pitcher, but there's a lot of people (I just saw Keith Law say it today, actually) that think Lester's still a potential #2 starter; I don't think anyone really thinks that about Kennedy.

fake edit: Just recalling Jim Callis ranking Lester over Kennedy in a chat yesterday.

[Jack Sox]

Are the Twins really trying to compete in 2008?

Beats me. If they get a good haul of players for Santana that contribute in 2008 and Liriano comes back somewhat as effective as he was, I'd say they have a chance to compete. All the while setting themselves up for a nice run in the future.

[jodyreeddudley78]

which part? that you could strongly argue kennedy over lester, cabrera over crisp, and tabata over lowrie? or the inconceivable part?

If you want to give Kennedy an edge over Lester, fine, I'll give you that. Those were 19 impressive IP last year at the MLB level. And, no, I am not being ironic. His minor league #s were strong. He had a better K rate, and an inhuman WHIP at all levels. Still, there is SSS. That and I really do believe that Lester's being LH should not be discounted. And they are only 11 months apart in age. And Lester does have a larger MLB sample size.

I honestly don't believe that anyone here thinks that for 08-09 Cabrerra will be better than Coco. More importantly, the Young trade replaced(potentially) Hunter's bat. Coco would replace the glove. There has been about 20 threads comparing the relative worth of Coco to Melky, I don't want to rehash that. I would rather focus on what has happened so far, and what Min. needs are right now. In other words, Young makes the offensive edge that Melky might have had less important. Don't think that SoSH is in some sort of bubble where defensive metrics, WPA, etc. matter versus the outside world.

Once again, after the Garza trade the Twin's aquired two OFs. This devalues the peripheral players(Tabata/Jackson) that the Yankees have mentioned. I am not saying they are bad prospects. They aren't. Lowrie, however, is a better fit for what the Twins actually need, an IF with an offensive upside. The Twins don't need the outfield log jam that the Rays just dealt with.

Once again, I am not being combative. It is just that the article claims to be thinking logically, but I don't see it. The only way the Twins would prefer the Yankee package is if money is the sole concern. But they are shedding Santana's salary and they are getting a new park. In addition, the + in the Sox package that the article casually blows off is either Masterson or Bowden. That isn't nothing.

edit:clarity
2nd edit:further clarity

Edited by jodyreeddudley78, 30 November 2007 - 01:00 AM.

[January]

Depending on what a team was looking for, sure.

Cabrera over Crisp based on youth, price and offensive upside at the expense of defense.
Kennedy over Lester based on consistency over greater upside and control issues.
Tabata over Lowrie based on upside.

There isn't a question in my mind that a case could be made for each player depending on what a team valued more. The idea that the packages are so far apart as to be "laughable" is ridiculous and about the same quality of analysis found on nnyfans.

Cabrera over Crisp: I'll call this a wash, and that's being nice, as Coco's upside pretty much wipes out the slight offensive difference this year. Cabrera barely adequate defensively and doesn't hit well enough to be a corner OF. He's like Brandon Moss who can play center, kinda. I think Cabrera would take the place of someone like Tabata in an actual trade.

Lester vs Kennedy is kinda a wash. Kennedy is a tad younger and a bit cheaper, but has worse stuff and is a RHP. Kennedy has also never pitched more than 10 starts at ANY level. If I were a GM, I'd avoid valuing him to much till he goes through a league twice. I don't think the value of one vs the other would be a huge difference though, no matter which way you had it.

Lowrie is a borderline ML ready SS who you could start next year, while Tabata is an OF in high A.

Edited by January, 30 November 2007 - 12:49 AM.

[NYCrusader]

Lowrie is a borderline ML ready SS who you could start next year, while Tabata is an OF in high A.

You can find a Jet Lowrie in any minor league system.

And I dont really think the Sox are in this, they are just trying to get the Yankees to pay more.

Edited by NYCrusader, 30 November 2007 - 12:51 AM.

[Rockin Robbin]

The whole commentary's pretty ridiculous... they completely ignore the fact that Crisp can be spun for other prospects, and his market value's extremely high right now. And Coco's got significantly more value to the majority of teams in baseball than Melky, IMO, even if not to the Twins.

If the Red Sox were really serious about acquiring Santana themselves then they would be the ones to spin Crisp to Texas or another team for prospects that could be used in a deal with Minnesota. They’re not and it’s another reason why Boston is not as committed to Santana as the media sources made them out to be today. Minnesota has no interest in adding to their payroll, which is why the rumored deal that was reported today involving Crisp was complete and utter bullshit that was likely fabricated by either Boston or Minnesota.

Another reason why nobody should take any more reports about the Red Sox involvement in Santana too seriously is the financial ramifications that would come with it. Does anyone see the Red Sox giving Santana the 5-7 year/$150 million dollar contract he would demand to accept a trade? This ownership groups track record suggests that they have no intention of adding payroll this offseason and it makes more sense for them in the long term financially to reduce the payroll in 2008 and reap the profits of the recent World Series victory and raised ticket prices. It’s not that I can’t see the Red Sox giving up these prospects. It’s that I can’t seem them giving them up and giving Santana the contract extension and adding $20 million to the 2008 payroll. Cashman and New York should be smart enough to know that the Red Sox are in no position financially to add to their payroll what would be needed to acquire Santana, so there is no reason to become paranoid over Bostons involvement and fold on the issue of Hughes. Minnesota will blink first and be satisfied with Kennedy, Cabrera, Jackson, etc because it's the best deal they will get. Anaheim is in on Cabrera and the Los Angeles Dodgers do not have the balls or the brains to pull a Santana deal off.

Edited by Rockin Robbin, 30 November 2007 - 12:55 AM.

[Jack Sox]

You can find a Jet Lowrie in any minor league system.

And I dont really think the Sox are in this, they are just trying to get the Yankees to pay more.

Then you're delusional.

And please, find me a SS who can put up a .870 OPS in the high minors in "any minor league system". I think you'll be surprised to find out they really aren't that plentiful.

[jodyreeddudley78]

You can find a Jet Lowrie in any minor league system.

Not to pile on, but the Yankee system doesn't have one. Otherwise, they would have offered him. Not to sound like a broken record, but the Twins want IF offensive talent. It is what they need.

[billy ashley]

You can find a Jet Lowrie in any minor league system.

And I dont really think the Sox are in this, they are just trying to get the Yankees to pay more.

yeah he is pretty shitty: I mean guys who post an .896 OPS between AA and AA at 23 and play short grow on trees. Come on man! I don't think he's bound for superstardom but at the same time Lowrie's 2007 was a lot more impressive than anything Hanley Ramirez, Melky Cabrera or Robinson Cano have done when they were in the minors. Hell, he had a better OPS than Brandon Wood last season and unlike Wood he's likely a better bet to be at short. Now of course Lowrie isn't a better prospect than Wood or Ramirez (was) but to say every team has polished college hitters who have performed at every level of baseball (aside from his injury filled 06 season) is insane. He also would fill a major need for the Twins, SS.

Right now Lowrie is a safer bet to crack 1,000 MLB PA's than Austin Jackson or Jose Tabata*




* Of course this is based on the fact that Jackson and Tabata have played all of one game over A ball; both are likely to be very highly regarded prospects as they advance through the system, they're just not MLB ready yet, unlike Lowrie who looks to be ready to be an average to an above average starter in 07 or 08.

Edited by billy ashley, 30 November 2007 - 01:12 AM.

[Jack Sox]

EvilEmpire summed up my feelings, but Jack Sox....why is it "clear" that they're pretty high on Coco (and not Melky)? Because statements about possible proposals leaked by team officials (from one of the sides) to the beat writers makes it so?

Because I believe the Twins place a high value in having a strong defensive CF. Coco is most definitely that while most indications say, Melky, is not.

If there is some so-called worry on the Twins side about guys flaming out, and wanting more of a sure thing (as in, Lowrie over Jackson/Tabata or Coco over Melky), why would anyone pick Lester over Kennedy? Again, i think they are very similar in value, unless you're going to go crazy over a good start in the playoffs against an offense that was dead

Mostly because, believe it or not, so far in his young career, Jon Lester has been an above average major league pitcher in the toughest division in baseball. This is all the while without being at full strength. I believe that carries significant weight in how his past 2 seasons have been evaluated among teams interested in him.

Edited by Jack Sox, 30 November 2007 - 01:12 AM.

[OrvilleOverall]

You can find a Jet Lowrie in any minor league system.

And I dont really think the Sox are in this, they are just trying to get the Yankees to pay more.

You're right, the first name of Jet is pretty hard to come by these days. Then again, neither are players that can play multiple positions and hit doubles and dingers while not being defensive liabilities. Jed may not be an elite prospect, but don't sell him short as some kind of replacement level player, the kid has solid major league potential.

[billy ashley]

You're right, the first name of Jet is pretty hard to come by these days. Then again, neither are players that can play multiple positions and hit doubles and dingers while not being defensive liabilities. Jed may not be an elite prospect, but don't sell him short as some kind of replacement level player, the kid has solid major league potential.

Let's also not forget that Lester was pretty god damn solid in AA at the age of 21, posting an ERA of 2.61 over 148 IP with a K/BB of 163/57. While Ian Kennedy had better numbers than that last year his K/BB wasn't far off (163/50) and he didn't spend hardly any time at any level. While I'm not sure I'd do it, I can see how one may argue that Kennedy while excellent last year was also aided by the fact that no one really got to see much of him since he was pretty much out of every level after a handful of starts. Since his break out year in 2005, Lester has taken a few lumps but still well above average while dealing with Cancer and its recovery. Like many Sox fans, I'm more than Ok with seeing him go, but to claim he isn't much of a chip seems shortsighted.

Edited by billy ashley, 30 November 2007 - 01:22 AM.

[nycdoc999]

Mostly because, believe it or not, so far in his young career, Jon Lester has been an above average major league pitcher in the toughest division in baseball. This is all the while without being at full strength. I believe that carries significant weight in how his past 2 seasons have been evaluated among teams interested in him.

Jon Lester has been an AVERAGE major league pitcher according to ERA+ (100 in 2006, 104 in 2007) with higher-than-average WHIPs. He has not shown an ability to command his pitches and throw strikes consistently at the highest level yet. There can be no denying that he as a live arm and good stuff - the question is can he develop control?


http://www.baseball-...lestejo01.shtml

[OCD SS]

Jon Lester has been an AVERAGE major league pitcher according to ERA+ (100 in 2006, 104 in 2007) with higher-than-average WHIPs. He has not shown an ability to command his pitches and throw strikes consistently at the highest level yet. There can be no denying that he as a live arm and good stuff - the question is can he develop control?

Here's a fun experiment:

1. Look at Jon Lester's age.
2. Go to Dan Haren's BBRef page and checkout what Haren did at the same age as Lester. Then continue to look at what Haren has done since being that young.
3. Sit back and think about what you've discovered.

With a little effort, you may come to the conclusion that a pitcher that even makes it to MLB at such a young age, and actually manages to be AVERAGE probably has a pretty bright future in MLB if he can stay healthy.

[86spike]

Minnesota has no interest in adding to their payroll, which is why the rumored deal that was reported today involving Crisp was complete and utter bullshit that was likely fabricated by either Boston or Minnesota.

You mean the Twins who just replaced Hunter's salary with that of second year player Delmon Young?

And the Twins who would be replacing Santana's salary with that of Crisp and 3 guys who will make about $1M between them?

Come on dude. Your entire screed about is just flat out wrong, but I'll just point to this one part in the interest of bandwidth.

[stephensjh]

If the Red Sox were really serious about acquiring Santana themselves then they would be the ones to spin Crisp to Texas or another team for prospects that could be used in a deal with Minnesota. They’re not and it’s another reason why Boston is not as committed to Santana as the media sources made them out to be today.

The fact is none of us fans ( and media for that matter ) have a fuckin clue as to the real level of intererest the Sox have to secure Santana, especially with all the gamesmanship transpiring among the teams. Moreover, the Sox front-office is cryptic about significant strategies, especially contrasted to the Yankees. As an aside, I'd even be a bit surprised if Theo told his new wife whether the Sox are in "bluff" mode or are earnestly trying to bag JS.

Re: Sox not trading Coco to Texas- I interpret the Sox holding-on ( so far ) to Coco as; (1) not being offered enough - which is not surprising given the number of FA centerfielders still available; and (2) a sign the Sox are seriously pursuing Santana as Ellsbury will (unfortunately) be likely required to close the deal.

[j44thor]

You can find a Jet Lowrie in any minor league system.

And I dont really think the Sox are in this, they are just trying to get the Yankees to pay more.

Ding, Ding, Ding...

Looks like we have our winner for stupidest post of the day.

Real quick, Jed Lowrie's AA OPS of .911 was the highest among Eastern League SS
Second Highest...
Asdrubal Cabrera's .837 yes the Asdrubal Cabrera that was starting for the Indians in the playoffs
Only one other Eastern League SS had an OPS of .800 or higher

The two Trenton SS ( Ramiro Pena & Reegie Corona) put up OPS of .629 & .579 respectively...

[twototango]

Here's a fun experiment:

1. Look at Jon Lester's age.
2. Go to Dan Haren's BBRef page and checkout what Haren did at the same age as Lester. Then continue to look at what Haren has done since being that young.
3. Sit back and think about what you've discovered.

With a little effort, you may come to the conclusion that a pitcher that even makes it to MLB at such a young age, and actually manages to be AVERAGE probably has a pretty bright future in MLB if he can stay healthy.

Here's another fun experiment:

1. Look at Jon Lester's age
2. Go find several pitchers who were average at Jon Lester's age, had very little command, and then see what they did since being that young.
3. Here's a hint: the majority of those pitchers are out of the league

[OCD SS]

Here's another fun experiment:

Since you quoted my post, I'll actually assume that you read the "stay healthy" addendum that's on the end, which tends to be one ofthe biggest (although by no means the only) reason that pitchers flame out.

However, you are missing the point of the experiment: it was not to prove that Lester is guaranteed to become a great pitcher. It is to point out why the Twins might prefer Lester to the vastly overhyped Ian Kennedy in a trade.

On one hand you have Kennedy, with mediocre stuff that plays up becasue of his control, who has never been exposed to any league for any amount of time; and OTOH you have Lester, who has put up 2 average years in MLB (in limited duty) at a younger age, who has better stuff but control problems.

So in the context of my reply to nycdoc999's suggestion that Lester is merely average, why is Kennedy not subject to the same influences/trends as Lester? I bring up Haren not as a comp, and not as a guarantee, only to point out the potential that is there that is not really with Kennedy. (He's also a name that's floating around, so people are likely to interested in him, but only keeping his 2007 season in mind.)

[Wingack]

Once again, after the Garza trade the Twin's aquired two OFs. This devalues the peripheral players(Tabata/Jackson) that the Yankees have mentioned. I am not saying they are bad prospects. They aren't. Lowrie, however, is a better fit for what the Twins actually need, an IF with an offensive upside. The Twins don't need the outfield log jam that the Rays just dealt with.

Jose Tabata is not a peripheral player and I think he is seriously being undervalued in the analysis of these packages here.

I know people aren't going to hear it but Tabata has just as high of a ceiling as Phil Hughes, and dare I say, a much higher ceiling then that whippersnapoer Jacoby Ellsbury.

[j44thor]

Jose Tabata is not a peripheral player and I think he is seriously being undervalued in the analysis of these packages here.

I know people aren't going to hear it but Tabata has just as high of a ceiling as Phil Hughes, and dare I say, a much higher ceiling then that whippersnapoer Jacoby Ellsbury.

But to the Twins Tabata is a peripheral player because they are looking for players near MLB ready. Tabata is at least 2-3 yrs away. Sure he could be the next Bobby Abreu, he isn't going to hit for a ton of power nor will he be the base threat Ellsbury already is.
But as high as his ceiling his, his floor is much, much lower than Ellsbury or even Lowrie since he has only had a couple avg. seasons in A ball albeit at a very young age. I'm not sure a small market club that is also looking to contend yr in and yr out is looking for that type of a risk/reward.
He would probably fetch a lot more from a team like the Pirates who have little hope of contending any time soon or even the A's if they decide to rebuild.
Actually Tabata is probably just the type of player the Yanks could use as a significant part of a package for Haren.

Also unless you don't think Hughes can be a #1 pitcher which I happen to think he can, Tabata's ceiling is not higher than Hughes. Bobby Abreu is probably a good comp for Tabata's ceiling and he isn't being traded for a #1 pitcher even in his prime.

[FoulkeYouk]

Jose Tabata is not a peripheral player and I think he is seriously being undervalued in the analysis of these packages here.

I know people aren't going to hear it but Tabata has just as high of a ceiling as Phil Hughes, and dare I say, a much higher ceiling then that whippersnapoer Jacoby Ellsbury.

I don't see it. In fact, the trend in SRs about him is one of backing down from the prodigious expectations after his rookie ball showing. He's going to have to show marked improvement to live up to the "young Manny Ramirez" hype generated at that time.

[January]

Jose Tabata is not a peripheral player and I think he is seriously being undervalued in the analysis of these packages here.

I know people aren't going to hear it but Tabata has just as high of a ceiling as Phil Hughes, and dare I say, a much higher ceiling then that whippersnapoer Jacoby Ellsbury.

Yes, but if the Twinks are building around Maur and Morneau, a 19 year old in high A doesn't help them, no matter HOW good he is.

Many players of Tabata's potential don't even make the majors. Any team with a decent farm system has that type of player. They will probably get one or two of them, but they are usually minor points.

[foulkehampshire]

Jose Tabata is not a peripheral player and I think he is seriously being undervalued in the analysis of these packages here.

I know people aren't going to hear it but Tabata has just as high of a ceiling as Phil Hughes, and dare I say, a much higher ceiling then that whippersnapoer Jacoby Ellsbury.

Last I knew, Tabata wasn't as good as a pitcher as Phil Hughes. I would venture to say that Tabata is a very mediocre pitcher.
However, he is a good outfielder. The reports of his ceiling have been quite mixed. Some say he's the next Manny Ramirez, and some say his small frame projects considerably (15-20 HR) less power. His bat speed and ability to hit for great average aren't questioned.

However, there is a gap between ceiling and actual production. Perhaps people feel like the % of Tabata actually becoming a great player is alot lower than him being an OK player, and thus he's not worth the investment.

And as far as Jacoby Ellsbury goes, he has alot more "now" attractibility. In 2007 he tore up AA, hit well in AAA, and did even better in his 116 AB debut for the Sox. He also supplanted Crisp in the postseason and hit .400 in the World Series. Is his ceiling lower than Tabata's? Most likely. But perhaps the % of Jacoby hitting that ceiling (.300+ avg, 10-15+ HR, 40+ SB) is alot higher presently than Tabata hitting his.

Are you even making the argument that Tabata has more trade value than Jacoby in the Santana trade?

[billy ashley]

Last I knew, Tabata wasn't as good as a pitcher as Phil Hughes. I would venture to say that Tabata is a very mediocre pitcher.
However, he is a good outfielder. The reports of his ceiling have been quite mixed. Some say he's the next Manny Ramirez, and some say his small frame projects considerably (15-20 HR) less power. His bat speed and ability to hit for great average aren't questioned.

However, there is a gap between ceiling and actual production. Perhaps people feel like the % of Tabata actually becoming a great player is alot lower than him being an OK player, and thus he's not worth the investment.

And as far as Jacoby Ellsbury goes, he has alot more "now" attractibility. In 2007 he tore up AA, hit well in AAA, and did even better in his 116 AB debut for the Sox. He also supplanted Crisp in the postseason and hit .400 in the World Series. Is his ceiling lower than Tabata's? Most likely. But perhaps the % of Jacoby hitting that ceiling (.300+ avg, 10-15+ HR, 40+ SB) is alot higher presently than Tabata hitting his.

Are you even making the argument that Tabata has more trade value than Jacoby in the Santana trade?

The Twins need a CF and SS in 2008, they also want a starter comming back should they trade Santana.

Tabata is none of those things. As talented as he may be, he is a project. Time will tell if he ever realizes all the talent he he has (and his ceiling is considerable) or if he'll just be one of the many talented players who never make it or if he'll make it and only be solid.

If the Twins are going to trade Santana they are going to want to fill several holes with players with upside but also are major league ready. They aren't going to be as interested in those Jose Tabata or Engel Beltre types (super talented works in progress)

[Mooch]

All the Yankee fan love for Tabata and Austin Jackson reminds me of how I once felt about Michael Coleman. After watching him burn up Trenton and Pawtucket as a 21 year old, I was convinced that "Prime Time" was going to be a legit 5-tool superstar.

[foulkehampshire]

All the Yankee fan love for Tabata and Austin Jackson reminds me of how I once felt about Michael Coleman. After watching him burn up Trenton and Pawtucket as a 21 year old, I was convinced that "Prime Time" was going to be a legit 5-tool superstar.

A 42HR season with 154 ribbies across 3 levels would do that.

[Trotsky]

The Brewers and the Twins are discussing a deal that would send Bill Hall to Minnesota in exchange for Joe Nathan. Can't discuss my "source"

[j44thor]

Yes, but if the Twinks are building around Maur and Morneau, a 19 year old in high A doesn't help them, no matter HOW good he is.

Many players of Tabata's potential don't even make the majors. Any team with a decent farm system has that type of player. They will probably get one or two of them, but they are usually minor points.

What is it with this thread that spawns these ridiculous generalizations that Lowries are a dime a dozen or that Tabata's grow on trees?

Tabata is a legit prospect but one with a long ways to go.
To say any team with a decent farm system has one is down right foolish because the last time I checked the Red Sox had a pretty decent farm system and I don't see any 17 or 18 YO's putting up a .370+ OBP in A ball... The only one close the Sox have is Tejeda who is unofficially a top 10 prospect in the system. He just finished short season rookie ball at age 17 and put up a similar line to what Tabata did at age 16.

[Trotsky]

What is it with this thread that spawns these ridiculous generalizations that Lowries are a dime a dozen or that Tabata's grow on trees?

Tabata is a legit prospect but one with a long ways to go.
To say any team with a decent farm system has one is down right foolish because the last time I checked the Red Sox had a pretty decent farm system and I don't see any 17 or 18 YO's putting up a .370+ OBP in A ball... The only one close the Sox have is Tejeda who is unofficially a top 10 prospect in the system. He just finished short season rookie ball at age 17 and put up a similar line to what Tabata did at age 16.

That makes him the next ARod.

[Trotsky]

I'll assume there'd be other parts moving too. But they're the main points of discussion.

EDIT- it's making me wonder though how that'd affect the Santana chatter though. That's why I posted it here. Sorry.
Would Hall play CF? SS?

Edited by Trotsky, 30 November 2007 - 03:17 PM.

[BigMike]

The Brewers and the Twins are discussing a deal that would send Bill Hall to Minnesota in exchange for Joe Nathan. Can't discuss my "source"

I would think the Twins would need a LOT more than Hall to let Nathan go. It would change the dynamic of a potential trade as Hall could play CF, SS, or 2B/3B for them. I would think it would mean that any other deal they make would have to be very pitching focused

[j44thor]

That makes him the next ARod.

yeah that was exactly the point I was trying to make, thanks for the extremely informative opinion...

[86spike]

until there is actual news on this Twins/Brewers thing from a reputable source... I say this should be completely ignored here.

[dcmissle]

Per Heyman, Twins have made it clear to the Yanks that they want Hughes:

http://sportsillustr...ml?eref=mostpop

EDIT: and from the RS, Ellsbury or Buchholz

Edited by dcmissle, 30 November 2007 - 05:08 PM.

[PooNani]

and if they all balk?

[dcmissle]

and if they all balk?

The story suggests the Twins may hold on to Santana for now. They are playing this beautifully. I think if the RS were to nod 'yes' on Ells or Buch, Hughes would on the table in a nanosecond.

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

http://sportsillustr...ml?eref=mostpop

Boston has been proposing a package starting with young left-hander Jon Lester and center fielder Coco Crisp. While the Twins showed interest in Crisp earlier in anticipation of losing Torii Hunter, they appear steadfast in their request that either Ellsbury or Buchholz be included in the package for Lester.

Don't these guys proofread their work?

[PooNani]

there is a scott boras joke in there that im going to save for later

[Rockin Robbin]

It will all come down to how desperate New York is. If they include Hughes in the deal they can trump any deal Boston can offer, and that includes one with Ellsbury or Buchholz. The only way Boston would be able to trump a deal that involved Hughes would be to include Ellsbury and Buchholz, which they would never do. If Boston adds Ellsbury or Buchholz to the deal, New York will then add Hughes, which would force Boston to include both of them if they want Santana. Either way, New York stands to lose the least between the two. They either land Santana in the end while still keeping their "untouchable" prospect (Chamberlin), or they lose out to Santana but force their rivals to give up both of their "untouchable" prospects (Ellsbury, Buchholz).