440 replies to this topic

[HarvardSox]

If the Twins have a team that they have to beat to reach the postseason, it's the Indians. How did the Twins' ace perform this year against his team's AL Central rivals? To the tune of five losses, zero wins, and a 4.38 ERA.

http://www.sportslin...rt/CLE/10340038

Santana is a very good pitcher and has 2 Cy Youngs to show for it. But Yankees who see him as the second coming of Sandy Koufax are drinking the Kool-Aid.

Earlier this year, I suggested that the previous savior for the Yankees, Phil Hughes, would have mixed results and a possible injury when he was called up. For that, I was greeted as a lunatic. Then Hughes went to the disabled list with a grade 3 ankle sprain and a grade 2 hamstring tear. He finished with a 4.46 ERA -- right at the league average.

Santana should be pursued and offered a huge contract. But a sane team shouldn't give away half of their best, young players for him. The great Yankee dynasty teams of the late 90s were built, not on superstar mercenaries, but on young players who rose through the farm system, played hard, and were devoted to the team. Both the Sox and Yankees should remember that lesson if they want to win championships.

[mt8thsw9th]

In those outings, over 39 innings, less than a hit per inning, nine walks and 43 Ks. 1.15 WHIP and .242 BAA, yet an ERA of 4.38 (and 5 losses). It's no "myth", sometimes luck isn't on your side, and it's unfortunate when it's against a division rival, and when you have no run support.

[dcmissle]

You can make a very good case that both the RS and MFYs SHOULD hold on to their young pitchers and let the chips fall where they may. But what WILL they do?

From the Yankees' standpoint, one cost of this among others is going into the 2008 post-season (if they make it) squarely behind the same 8-ball that proved insurmountable a month ago -- they simply do not have the guns at the top of the rotation to get the job done. Now, Hughes, Kennedy or Chamberlain may ascend to that position in 2008 -- but that's highly unlikely.

Everything the Yanks have done thus far -- their about-face on A-Rod, their paying through the nose for Rivera and Posada -- is at odds with 2008 being a transitional year for them. Telling Joe Torre to pound sand, which casts the kids Steinbrenner squarely in the spotlight, is completely at odds with 2008 being transitional. Eveything about their offseason screams, GFIN. I expect the Yanks to trade for an ace.

Edited by dcmissle, 15 November 2007 - 12:01 PM.

[FoulketoMinky]

You predicted a rookie pitcher with less than 30 innings at AAA would have mixed results? JESUS, that's BRILLIANT! Alex Cora has absolutely nothing on you.

[glennhoffmania]

If the Twins have a team that they have to beat to reach the postseason, it's the Indians. How did the Twins' ace perform this year against his team's AL Central rivals? To the tune of five losses, zero wins, and a 4.38 ERA.

Jesus, talk about SSS and cherrypicking. Hey, I can do that too:

Santana vs. Det in 2006: 3-1, 2.67, 34 innings, 23 hits, 10 BB, 46 Ks, .190 BAA
Santana vs. Cle in 2006: 2-1, 3.06, 35 inning, 28 hits, 6 BB, 33 Ks, .217 BAA

[DukeSox]

played hard, and were devoted to the team.

I'm guessing you don't like JD Drew.

[Rockin Robbin]

Everything the Yanks have done thus far -- their about-face on A-Rod, their paying through the nose for Rivera and Posada -- is at odds with 2008 being a transitional year for them. Telling Joe Torre to pound sand, which casts the kids Steinbrenner squarely in the spotlight, is completely at odds with 2008 being transitional. Eveything about their offseason screams, GFIN. I expect the Yanks to trade for an ace.

The New York Yankees and Brian Cashman can talk all they want about changing their philosophies, rebuilding through the farm system, and relying on young talent to bring them back to prominence, but they will make sure there is a safety net under that young talent in the form of high-priced free agent resignings and acquisitions. They are still the New York Yankees and they are going to spend millions upon millions this offseason on 30-something catchers, MVP's, and Hall of Fame closers. You almost have to chuckle when Cashman talks about how he has changed his philosophies and it's "all about the young talent now." Cashman knows that he is not in a position to sit around for 2-3 seasons and wait for Chamberlin, Hughes and Kennedy to develop into a Beckett, Sabathia or Lackey and deliver a championship. So the Yankees plan for 2008 appears to be to let the young pitching develop....and surround it with a $100 million dollar lineup and a front line starter they got from trading some of that precious "young talent."

The New York Yankees are clearly building towards winning the World Series in 2008 and even though one can debate whether or not some of these moves will be "right" in 2009, 2010, 2011, etc, they are clearly going to be very good right now. If New York can land a front line starter and the Red Sox are unable to re-signs Lowell, you have to give the edge to New York in 2008.

[snowmanny]

If the Twins have a team that they have to beat to reach the postseason, it's the Indians. How did the Twins' ace perform this year against his team's AL Central rivals? To the tune of five losses, zero wins, and a 4.38 ERA.

Well, given that the Yankees' ace went 0-2 with a 19.06 ERA in the playoffs against Cleveland, 4.38 would be quite an upgrade.

[Phranchise]

Mark my words - the Yankees will have Santana pitching for them on opening day. They will trade Cano + for him. They won't give up Joba or Hughes either.

[Rough Carrigan]

Come on. An ERA of 4.38 shouldn't get you a record of 0-5. He didn't pitch great against the Indians but the bigger problem was that his team's offense sucked.

At least he wasn't as bad as a supposedly top pitcher who rolled up a 1-3 record and 4.56 ERA in much more pitcher friendly 1967 against his team's closest rival. Oops. That was Jim Lonborg against the Twins in the impossible dream year.

And Santana was easily better than a guy who goes 0-2 with a 6.27 ERA against his league's reigning champion, a team his squad would have to get past at some point. But then, Luis Tiant pitched better against the A's in the playoffs in 1975 than he did in the regular season.

It's not that big of a deal.

Edit addition:
a quick look at the game logs shows that it's pretty silly to be really down on Santana for this. He started 6 (six!) games against the Indians this past season. The Twins scored a total of 10 runs in those 6 games, not just while Santana was in there but 10 runs total in those games. They were:

April 24----7 ip, 4 er in a 5-3 loss
May 17-----7 ip, 2 er in a 2-0 loss
July 28-----7 ip, 2 er and no decision in a 3-2 loss
August 3---6 ip, 3 er in a 5-2 loss
August 29--6 ip, 4 er in a 4-3 loss
Sept. 3-----6 ip, 4 er in a 5-0 loss

Not Beckett postseason quality but not horrible by any means.

Edited by Rough Carrigan, 15 November 2007 - 09:44 PM.

[TBONE95860]

If the Twins have a team that they have to beat to reach the postseason, it's the Indians. How did the Twins' ace perform this year against his team's AL Central rivals? To the tune of five losses, zero wins, and a 4.38 ERA.

http://www.sportslin...rt/CLE/10340038

Santana is a very good pitcher and has 2 Cy Youngs to show for it. But Yankees who see him as the second coming of Sandy Koufax are drinking the Kool-Aid.

Earlier this year, I suggested that the previous savior for the Yankees, Phil Hughes, would have mixed results and a possible injury when he was called up. For that, I was greeted as a lunatic. Then Hughes went to the disabled list with a grade 3 ankle sprain and a grade 2 hamstring tear. He finished with a 4.46 ERA -- right at the league average.

Santana should be pursued and offered a huge contract. But a sane team shouldn't give away half of their best, young players for him. The great Yankee dynasty teams of the late 90s were built, not on superstar mercenaries, but on young players who rose through the farm system, played hard, and were devoted to the team. Both the Sox and Yankees should remember that lesson if they want to win championships.

Hughes was inj. most of the year & wasn't the same when he came back.

Hughes will be a VERY GOOD pitcher, just wait.

[Future Sox Doc]

Mark my words - the Yankees will have Santana pitching for them on opening day. They will trade Cano + for him. They won't give up Joba or Hughes either.

I'll mark 'em. Ain't happening.

[Lucen]

If the Twins have a team that they have to beat to reach the postseason, it's the Indians. How did the Twins' ace perform this year against his team's AL Central rivals? To the tune of five losses, zero wins, and a 4.38 ERA.

http://www.sportslin...rt/CLE/10340038

Santana is a very good pitcher and has 2 Cy Youngs to show for it. But Yankees who see him as the second coming of Sandy Koufax are drinking the Kool-Aid.

Earlier this year, I suggested that the previous savior for the Yankees, Phil Hughes, would have mixed results and a possible injury when he was called up. For that, I was greeted as a lunatic. Then Hughes went to the disabled list with a grade 3 ankle sprain and a grade 2 hamstring tear. He finished with a 4.46 ERA -- right at the league average.

Santana should be pursued and offered a huge contract. But a sane team shouldn't give away half of their best, young players for him. The great Yankee dynasty teams of the late 90s were built, not on superstar mercenaries, but on young players who rose through the farm system, played hard, and were devoted to the team. Both the Sox and Yankees should remember that lesson if they want to win championships.

Drinking the "Kool-Aid"? Are you nuts? There simply isn't a better pitcher in baseball the last 6 years. Since 2002 he's posted ERA's of 2.99, 3.07, 2.61, 2.87, 2.77, 3.33. His fip's in that time? 2.90, 3.41, 3.07, 2.98, 3.09, 3.78.

You simply won't find a better pitcher since the start of the 2002 season. If the Yankees pick him up, he severely improves their rotation and their chances of winning it all in 2008 (even at the expense of Joba or Hughes) and likely does the same for them for the 4 or 5 seasons that follow. You may be suggesting his 2007 self wasn't up to par or that he's in a decline, so let's look at him stacked up side by side with the best pitcher in baseball this year: C.C. Sabathia. For good measure, we'll toss in Jake Peavy and Josh Beckett as well.

Name        ERA    FIP    K/9    BB/9    K/BB    BRAA    WS    PRC    VORPSantana    3.33   3.78   9.66    2.38    4.00   33.20   18.1   123    57.7Sabathia   3.21   3.10   7.80    1.38    5.65   37.05   23.7   131    65.2Peavy      2.54   2.80   9.67    2.74    3.53   50.99   23.4   143    77.0Beckett    3.27   3.04   8.70    1.79    4.85   33.28   18.6   120    58.6

So in a "down" year, he compares pretty favorably with the three best pitchers of 2007. When you include his previous 5 years when evaluating him, he's the best pitcher in baseball by a long shot and the best bet to carry a staff out of any of the 4 names above, I'd wager. Your contention that people are drinking the "Kool-Aid" about him is embarrassingly ridiculous.

As for your Phil Hughes "prediction"... plenty of people here were making the same predictions about him leading into this season. If you were "greeted as a lunatic" here, then it was by the minority, I guarantee it. Hyperbole for the sake of hyperbole is a waste. This thread should be locked as I'm pretty sure it made me dumber for having read it... and I can't afford to get much dumber.

[NDBoston]

Mark my words - the Yankees will have Santana pitching for them on opening day. They will trade Cano + for him. They won't give up Joba or Hughes either.

This isn't Fantasyland.

[Canary]

Mark my words - the Yankees will have Santana pitching for them on opening day. They will trade Cano + for him. They won't give up Joba or Hughes either.

If the best the Twins can get for Santana is Robinson Cano the twins GM should be drawn and quartered. And that's not because Cano is anything other than a very talented second baseman. But if no one beats that as a starting price for the best lefthanded ace in the big leagues the Twins GM should simply ride out one last season with Johan, develop the rest of the pitchers under his leadership, and take the picks.

Edited by Canary, 18 November 2007 - 08:33 AM.

[PooNani]

I dont know, i think 4 years of a player who is the 2nd best player in the league at his position in exchange for one of the top 5 pitchers in the league (for 1 year) is a pretty fair trade although i'm not sure i'd definitely jump at such a trade from the yankees side.

Would you really rather have Kershaw and Kemp over Cano and another prospect? Cano would immediately become the 2nd or 3rd best hitter in their lineup. Kershaw like Greg Miller could flame out very easily and Kemp's future in the majors is iffy with his plate discipline (it hurt him in 06, didnt hurt in half a season in 07)

the quote in the NY Post today makes my head hurt

http://www.nypost.co...7957.htm?page=2

The Yankees would likely have to give up Wang and Hughes plus Melky Cabrera or Robinson Cano to entice the Twins, and it may still not be enough. They have no intentions of moving Chamberlain.

four years of Wang, four years of Cano, and six years of Hughes for one year of Santana. George King, everybody

Edited by PooNani, 18 November 2007 - 11:28 AM.

[bankshot1]

four years of Wang, four years of Cano, and six years of Hughes for one year of Santana. I would insult the writer's intelligence for saying this may not be enough, but there is no author listed with the article.

George King.

IIRC Wang is arb eligible, so the Twins or any team may be looking at a fair chunk of change for the 2X-19 game winner. He may not be a great bargain or the Twins. That and Wang pitching on a carpet may not be terribly exciting prospect for the Twins.

If we assume that Joba is off the table, Hughes + Kennedy, + choice of Cano or Melky might be very much still on if the Twins decide to swap Santana.

Same deal for the Sox if they went hard after Santana. It might take: Lester + Buchholz + choice of Crisp or Ellsbury.

look at them (the cheap prospects) as like the posting fee-then all you gotta do is sign the guyto a 5/100MM+ deal.

The "winner" gets Santana and the "loser" gets to keep prospects and say the winner got hosed.

Edited by bankshot1, 18 November 2007 - 11:52 AM.

[glennhoffmania]

four years of Wang, four years of Cano, and six years of Hughes for one year of Santana. George King, everybody

Since when do pre-arb/pre-FA years matter to the only team with an essentially unlimited payroll? Money will not be the reason why NY doesn't get Santana.

[Hello]

Since when do pre-arb/pre-FA years matter to the only team with an essentially unlimited payroll? Money will not be the reason why NY doesn't get Santana.

Perhaps this is true (it probably is), but the pre-arb/pre-FA years would sure as hell matter to the Twins. If those things are very valuable to the Twins, then the Yankees shouldn't just keep piling on the prospects and players. There needs to be a limit somewhere.

Incidentally, if I am giving up 6 years of Hughes or Chamberlain or several years of Cano (plus other prospects/players whatever) then I would demand contract negotiations with Santana before it is complete. It isn't entirely about payroll, it is about the players.

[glennhoffmania]

Perhaps this is true (it probably is), but the pre-arb/pre-FA years would sure as hell matter to the Twins. If those things are very valuable to the Twins, then the Yankees shouldn't just keep piling on the prospects and players. There needs to be a limit somewhere.

Incidentally, if I am giving up 6 years of Hughes or Chamberlain or several years of Cano (plus other prospects/players whatever) then I would demand contract negotiations with Santana before it is complete. It isn't entirely about payroll, it is about the players.

Absolutely. But that's just another reason why they may value other guys more since Cano is about to start making a lot of money. And I don't think there's any doubt that a team will get a window to negotiate an extension as part of any deal. That's why the comments about it only being for one year of Santana are pretty meaningless. Plus, since Santana has a no-trade clause, I'd imagine he'd have to receive something to waive it, and I'd think that would be a lucrative extension.

[Phranchise]

If the best the Twins can get for Santana is Robinson Cano the twins GM should be drawn and quartered. And that's not because Cano is anything other than a very talented second baseman. But if no one beats that as a starting price for the best lefthanded ace in the big leagues the Twins GM should simply ride out one last season with Johan, develop the rest of the pitchers under his leadership, and take the picks.

I said Cano +...Cano is arguably the best 2b in the AL. You're telling me that Cano + Kennedy + Melky wouldn't be enough for Johan? Anyone the Dodgers offer, has not proven themselves to be stud everyday MLB players. Some have shown glimpses of what they are capable of (Loney, Kemp). Cano is basicaly the best sure thing player that any of Boston, LAA, LAD can offer.

[LMontro]

You're telling me that Cano + Kennedy + Melky wouldn't be enough for Johan?

yes.

[PooNani]

yes.

please post the better package by another team thx

[Trotsky]

I just would imagine that the Twins GM would know how sucky Wang would be on artificial turf. He'd be a 4.60ERA type of pitcher in the Dome. It'll take one of Hughes or Chamberlain to get it done... and to make it fair.

[Canary]

please post the better package by another team thx

Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton, and Andy LaRoche.

You're welcome.

[Rough Carrigan]

The thing about trading for Santana is that his value is different for different teams. The point that Poonani and others have made about his only having one more relatively cheap year is true, but what do the mfy's care? That he'll cost $20-25 million per year instead of $10 million is no big deal to them. Having a guy who's almost certainly a legitimate ace and game 1 of a playoff series worthy starter is much more important. Offense is fungible. You can't get a different game 1 start from the other guys on your staff if your game 1 starter shits the bed.

Other teams have to trade with an eye to the financial implications. In a way, this sets up the sort of "they're not being fair to our yankees!" crying that some mfy fans do. Because the Twins know that Santana's value to, say, the Dodgers is less than it is to the mfy's. The Dodgers have to be cognizant of salaries. He's not quite as valuable to them as to the mfy's. So, the Twins can and should ask for more from the mfy's. That's not being unfair. That's recognizing supply and demand in a marketplace.

[stephensjh]

I said Cano +...Cano is arguably the best 2b in the AL. You're telling me that Cano + Kennedy + Melky wouldn't be enough for Johan? Anyone the Dodgers offer, has not proven themselves to be stud everyday MLB players. Some have shown glimpses of what they are capable of (Loney, Kemp). Cano is basicaly the best sure thing player that any of Boston, LAA, LAD can offer.

So many Yankee fans continue to turn a blind eye to economics which is easy to understand since the Yanks operate with an 'infinite' budget. A team, in this case the Twins, analyzing Cano's value, will first ask: How much will it cost in $$$? Cano is starting his 4th year and is arbitration eligible. Take a look at Chase Utley's contract last January 7/$85 which includes $25 million the first three years ( buying out arbitration ). If Cano is the stud many Yank fans declare, his salary will skyrocket the next three years.

If/when the Twins seek to traded Santana, I doubt the Twins will be looking for arbitration eligible players, especially upper level types like Wang, Cano, Youkilis. They will make too much money. The goldmine is in the 5-6 year huge upside guys like Hughes, Buchholz, Joba, Ellsbury, Loney, Kemp, LaRoche, Billingsley, etc.

[OCD SS]

Would you really rather have Kershaw and Kemp over Cano and another prospect? Cano would immediately become the 2nd or 3rd best hitter in their lineup. Kershaw like Greg Miller could flame out very easily and Kemp's future in the majors is iffy with his plate discipline (it hurt him in 06, didnt hurt in half a season in 07)

1. And why is there no chance that Hughes won't flame out like Greg Miller?

2. So Kemp's lack of plate discipline would make him a clear risk, and your counter of a better player that the Yankees can provide is Cano... who's IsoD in his first two years of MLB play was .23? (Kemps first two years were .36 and .31.) Never mind that Kemp is younger, costs less (Cano will be a super 2) and fits a position of need for the Twins, while Cano would force them to dump a young, cost controlled player that they've developed and supposedly like.

I think the problem with trading for Santana will be that there's a level most teams won't/don't want to go over (Sox fans trying like hell not to include Buchholz, Yanks fans thinking that they can make the deal without Joba or Hughes, although I give you credit for at least adding Hughes), but where most teams can put together a very competive bid that's very similar to everyone else's. The team that will land Santana will be the one that does go "all in" and blows everyone else out of the water by adding more elite talent than anyone else is willing to give up.

[EvilEmpire]

Other teams have to trade with an eye to the financial implications. In a way, this sets up the sort of "they're not being fair to our yankees!" crying that some mfy fans do. Because the Twins know that Santana's value to, say, the Dodgers is less than it is to the mfy's. The Dodgers have to be cognizant of salaries. He's not quite as valuable to them as to the mfy's. So, the Twins can and should ask for more from the mfy's. That's not being unfair. That's recognizing supply and demand in a marketplace.

This makes sense from the perspective of what the Twins ask for in trade, but I'm not sure I understand how it will impact on what they accept for a trade. If the Yankees offer a lesser package than what the Twins are demanding, and that package is still a better one than what the Dodgers offer, why does it matter what the original demands from the Twins are?

Beyond that, I can understand why cheaper potential talent might be of more interest to the Twins than someone more established like Cano who will be getting some big paydays soon. However, I do think there might be at least a little pressure on the Twin FO to bring some recognizable star back in return for Santana. Does Cano fit that bill? Perhaps. A handful of top prospects might be cheaper, but if there are concerns about the fan reaction, they might want someone with a bit bigger profile. And maybe more of a surer thing.

It will be interesting to see how this turns out.

[Phranchise]

And when Cano gets too expensive in arbitration, the Twins can then spin the best hitting 2b in the AL for a nice collection of young talent. It's a cycle that most small market teams have to go through. I don't think that his arbitration years being near will prevent the Twins from trading for him.

[glennhoffmania]

And when Cano gets too expensive in arbitration, the Twins can then spin the best hitting 2b in the AL for a nice collection of young talent. It's a cycle that most small market teams have to go through. I don't think that his arbitration years being near will prevent the Twins from trading for him.

So why not just trade Santana, a far more valuable player, for that same nice collection of young talent instead of taking Cano for a couple of years and hoping his value continues to increase?

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

I said Cano +...Cano is arguably the best 2b in the AL. You're telling me that Cano + Kennedy + Melky wouldn't be enough for Johan?

go back to nyyfans please

[Rough Carrigan]

And when Cano gets too expensive in arbitration, the Twins can then spin the best hitting 2b in the AL for a nice collection of young talent. It's a cycle that most small market teams have to go through. I don't think that his arbitration years being near will prevent the Twins from trading for him.

Well, some small market teams make some honest attempt to keep their key pieces. The A's did with Giambi and their pitchers. The Twins are owned by the real world version of Montgomery Burns, Carl Pohlad. He doesn't give a shit about the team. If they've got a AAA 2nd baseman who figures to be able to put up a line of .250/.300/.350, Cano would be gone.

But, okay, I think you're generally correct.

[snowmanny]

I think the problem with trading for Santana will be that there's a level most teams won't/don't want to go over (Sox fans trying like hell not to include Buchholz, Yanks fans thinking that they can make the deal without Joba or Hughes, although I give you credit for at least adding Hughes), but where most teams can put together a very competive bid that's very similar to everyone else's. The team that will land Santana will be the one that does go "all in" and blows everyone else out of the water by adding more elite talent than anyone else is willing to give up.

This is right. And beyond that it is difficult to make assumptions about what the Twins want. I've seen folks say they'll want minimum salary back in a trade; I've also read they aren't as
concerned with that as you'd think. I've seen folks say they'd want an A-list pitching prospect; I've read elsewhere their focus is on a position player. Without Santana would they be going for it next year and therefore want veterans, or would they be happy with developing young talent only?

Unless some team goes all in, the offer they'd accept would be the one that includes the type of players they want back, and the particular players they happen to like. And we don't know what that is. So we could expect fans of other teams to complain that the Twins took a lesser deal than their F.O. offered.

That being said, if I were the Twins I'd be pissed as hell at the Yankees (and Hank Steinbrenner specifically) for publicly drooling over Santana(between setting spending records)while Minnesota is in the midst of trying to sign him to an extension. Technically it may not be tampering, but it has the net effect of tampering.

Edited by snowmanny, 18 November 2007 - 08:01 PM.

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

The great Yankee dynasty teams of the late 90s were built, not on superstar mercenaries, but on young players who rose through the farm system, played hard, and were devoted to the team. Both the Sox and Yankees should remember that lesson if they want to win championships.

This is a myth that's being perpetuated. The Yankees did have some key homegrown talent like Jeter and Rivera. But people suggest the Yankees earned those WS titles with homegrown teams, and that is false.

The 1998 Team, generally considered the most successful, acquired/signed 6 of its starting 9 from other teams (Tino, Knoblauch, Brosius, Curtis, O'Neil, Strawberry) plus Girardi, Raines, Sojo, and Chili. 2 of its starting 5 were from other teams (David Wells, David Cone) and 2 were experienced veteran imports from other countries (Irabu and El Duque). In the bullpen, Stanton, Lloyd, Holmes, and Nelson came from elsewhere. That's approximately 18 out of 25 regulars who were not home grown. 1997 and 1999 produce similar results.

Edited by The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa, 18 November 2007 - 08:03 PM.

[EvilEmpire]

That being said, if I were the Twins I'd be pissed as hell at the Yankees (and Hank Steinbrenner specifically) for publicly drooling over Santana(between setting spending records)while Minnesota is in the midst of trying to sign him to an extension. Technically it may not be tampering, but it has the net effect of tampering.

This is an excellent point. Has anyone read anything indicating what Santana might want to do, or where he might want to go? His willingness to sign an extension and pass on free-agency is going to be central to the quality of talent that Minnesota is going to get back.

With the Yankees giving every indication that they will open the vaults for Santana, does that make it more or less likely for him to want to establish his true market value on an open market? In other words, does the prospect of a team having to go "all-in" with talent to get Santana from the Twins then have to go over the top on a financial offer to Santana in order to get him to extend? How much extra will it cost to get him to pass up free agency?

The team that offers the best package to the Twins might not be the same team that is willing to offer the most to Santana on an extension. Bottom line: Santana has to being willing to accept a deal. The Twins could get the offer of a lifetime in prospects and talent, but if a team doesn't also make Santana a similar offer of a lifetime, then the Twins might have to either scale down their expectations, keep Santana, or at least hold him till the trading deadline in the hopes that something will change. Depending on how Santana sees things, of course.

With the teams in discussion (Yankees, Sox, Dodgers, Angels) it might not matter, but it certainly could be an interesting variable as this plays out.

[snowmanny]

This is an excellent point. Has anyone read anything indicating what Santana might want to do, or where he might want to go? His willingness to sign an extension and pass on free-agency is going to be central to the quality of talent that Minnesota is going to get back.

With the Yankees giving every indication that they will open the vaults for Santana, does that make it more or less likely for him to want to establish his true market value on an open market? In other words, does the prospect of a team having to go "all-in" with talent to get Santana from the Twins then have to go over the top on a financial offer to Santana in order to get him to extend? How much extra will it cost to get him to pass up free agency?

The team that offers the best package to the Twins might not be the same team that is willing to offer the most to Santana on an extension. Bottom line: Santana has to being willing to accept a deal. The Twins could get the offer of a lifetime in prospects and talent, but if a team doesn't also make Santana a similar offer of a lifetime, then the Twins might have to either scale down their expectations, keep Santana, or at least hold him till the trading deadline in the hopes that something will change. Depending on how Santana sees things, of course.

With the teams in discussion (Yankees, Sox, Dodgers, Angels) it might not matter, but it certainly could be an interesting variable as this plays out.

Right. Because the Yankees have established this off-season that they are willing to pay much more than anyone else, even when they don't have to to keep the players they want (see Rivera and ARod) AND they have established that they want Santana more than anyone else.Therefore, he has reason to believe he will get more cash from the Yankees than he will anywhere else.

Therefore, the Yankees don't even particularily need to have that 72-hour negotiating window.They know that sooner or later they'll give him whatever he wants and probably more, and by now he knows it too. The only thing that could interfere is him signing with Minnesota or some other team before they get the chance, so they want to keep that from happening.

Edited by snowmanny, 18 November 2007 - 11:32 PM.

[jon abbey]

if he goes to the NL, it almost seems like overkill, using a hand grenade to blow up a hamster.

not sure if it was posted here, but Minnesota upped their offer to him to $93 million, according to Rotoworld. I don't think that's going to come close to doing it.

[billy ashley]

if he goes to the NL, it almost seems like overkill, using a hand grenade to blow up a hamster.

not sure if it was posted here, but Minnesota upped their offer to him to $93 million, according to Rotoworld. I don't think that's going to come close to doing it.

While I agree that 93 million won't get it done, I must say "Good for them". Despite my dreams of watching Santana mow down AL East line ups while in a Sox uni, I must admit: it would be better for baseball if Minnesota is able to lock him up. While I understand that their owner is a bit of a dick, this is a city that was a pretty good baseball town in the early 1990s and they have some real talent to build around. With all these talks about who it would take to get Santana and so forth I really think we tend to overlook how much depth they have in some areas.

They have Garza, Bonser, Lirano and Baker all of whom are young and some degree of promise as well as young talented hitters at C, LF, and 1b. They are a team that with Santana and a couple breaks coulds win the Central next season (though they are clearly behind Det. and Clev.)

[Phranchise]

go back to nyyfans please

Am I that off base, or are you just trying to be an ass to the newbie who appears to be a Yankee fan?
I come in peace. Nothing I said was offensive. I think Cano right now is the best hitting 2b in the AL. If you think that I am wrong, please let me know who is better.

Back to the original subject - Santana - the NY papers are saying that it will at least cost Hughes and Cano. I personally would not make this trade (even if we were to get Santana signed to an extension). Would you guys trade Clay and Pedroia?

[Jibaholic]

Mark my words - the Yankees will have Santana pitching for them on opening day. They will trade Cano + for him. They won't give up Joba or Hughes either.

I really do think Yankees fans are less knowledgeable than Sox fans. From their irrational defenses of Jeter to their wacky trade proposals, they are prone to taking poorly informed positions.

[January]

Am I that off base, or are you just trying to be an ass to the newbie who appears to be a Yankee fan?
I come in peace. Nothing I said was offensive. I think Cano right now is the best hitting 2b in the AL. If you think that I am wrong, please let me know who is better.

That would be Placido Polanco(DET). Cano is pretty good, possible second best. His main downside for Minn is that he's only got one or two cheap years left.

[Phranchise]

That would be Placido Polanco(DET). Cano is pretty good, possible second best. His main downside for Minn is that he's only got one or two cheap years left.

Polanco has a career ops+ of 99. At age 31 he just had his career year (+122) which Cano has done twice already by age 24. I can't believe you really believe that.

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

Am I that off base, or are you just trying to be an ass to the newbie who appears to be a Yankee fan?
I come in peace. Nothing I said was offensive. I think Cano right now is the best hitting 2b in the AL. If you think that I am wrong, please let me know who is better.

Back to the original subject - Santana - the NY papers are saying that it will at least cost Hughes and Cano. I personally would not make this trade (even if we were to get Santana signed to an extension). Would you guys trade Clay and Pedroia?

Believe me, I am not one of the bullies here. But there is a common trait among the Yankee fans here and elsewhere, a sense of entitlement to the best players and a sense that other teams ought to accept less than true equal value when acquiring those players, with a bloated sense of what your players are really worth. Your position about not trading Hughes and Cano for Santana demonstrates it. Cano is certainly one of the top offensive 2b in the AL (ranking anywhere from 1-4 depending on what you value), but his defense is erratic, he has attitude problems/seems lazy, and he is going to get expensive soon. Still a very good player, but no way is he a centerpiece for a Santana trade that lacks Hughes/Joba. I would absolutely trade Clay and Pedroia for Santana, would do it immediately before Minnesota changes its mind. I would still do the deal even if we added in a pitcher like Bowden, which is sort of like you guys throwing in Kennedy...Bowden is younger and less accomplished but with better stuff and more upside.

Edited by The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa, 19 November 2007 - 10:28 AM.

[Zupcic Fan]

I don't see anything that he said that indicates to me any sense of entitlement. Cano and Philip Hughes is definitely a reasonable offer for Santana. The Twins probably wouldn't do it unless they are under pressure, but it's reasonable.
Trading Clay and Pedroia, which you would do in a minute for Santana, I'd think awfully hard about doing.
Both positions are reasonable but arguable. To me the "go back to NYFans.com comment" is the only unreasonable thing I've seen.

[Phranchise]

I don't see anything that he said that indicates to me any sense of entitlement. Cano and Philip Hughes is definitely a reasonable offer for Santana. The Twins probably wouldn't do it unless they are under pressure, but it's reasonable.
Trading Clay and Pedroia, which you would do in a minute for Santana, I'd think awfully hard about doing.
Both positions are reasonable but arguable. To me the "go back to NYFans.com comment" is the only unreasonable thing I've seen.

I apprecaite you defending me against the "go back to nyyfans" comment.
I for one would in no way trade Cano and Hughes for Santana. That would seem to be the exact trade that Cash has been trying to get away from for the past 2-3 seasons. It will go against everything he has been preaching about having patience with youth. Why trade those two player for Johan when in 1 yr (assuming Johan will go to the high bidder) you can outbid anyone for his services.

[Phranchise]

From Buster Olney this morning, nothing new but just thought I'd post it:

The Red Sox will look around for a deal involving center fielder Coco Crisp in all likelihood, look to add some bullpen depth, and they would probably explore any serious market involving Johan Santana.

The Yankees would jump into a Santana bidding war, but short of that, the most pressing matter for them is Andy Pettitte's pending decision on whether to retire; if he does, the Yankees' rotation will have a huge hole that will need to be filled. So they, too, will look seriously at adding a veteran pitcher like Santana -- the only scenario in which they would part with Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy, in all likelihood.

[Igosplut]

I apprecaite you defending me against the "go back to nyyfans" comment.
I for one would in no way trade Cano and Hughes for Santana. That would seem to be the exact trade that Cash has been trying to get away from for the past 2-3 seasons. It will go against everything he has been preaching about having patience with youth. Why trade those two player for Johan when in 1 yr (assuming Johan will go to the high bidder) you can outbid anyone for his services.

I think the point was made that part of the trade would be an agreement on a extention on Santana's contract.

Plus, I think Cash is being overuled by the brothers Stein. 10 ys for A-rod sorta proves that (being I don't think Cash would have made that kind of deal). And I think the brothers feel they have something to prove and will not settle for a rebuilding year...

[NDBoston]

Am I that off base, or are you just trying to be an ass to the newbie who appears to be a Yankee fan?
I come in peace. Nothing I said was offensive. I think Cano right now is the best hitting 2b in the AL. If you think that I am wrong, please let me know who is better.

Back to the original subject - Santana - the NY papers are saying that it will at least cost Hughes and Cano. I personally would not make this trade (even if we were to get Santana signed to an extension). Would you guys trade Clay and Pedroia?

You didn't state that Cano was the best hitting 2B in the AL. Here's what you came here posting.

Mark my words - the Yankees will have Santana pitching for them on opening day. They will trade Cano + for him. They won't give up Joba or Hughes either.

Not quite the same thing you're saying now. BTW- Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood are good trade pieces for the Angels too.

Edited by NDBoston, 19 November 2007 - 11:46 AM.

[Phranchise]

You didn't state that Cano was the best hitting 2B in the AL. Here's what you came here posting.



Not quite the same thing you're saying now. BTW- Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood are good trade pieces for the Angels too.

Yes you are right, I may have been a tad over the top. If I end up being correct though, I'd have a good laugh.
As for Brandon Wood - the guy is a k machine. I would have to think that the Twinkies would want more of a sure thing. Someone who has shown their ability on the ML level (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Cano, Loney, Kemp). Their GM is in no position to screw his first major move up. The trade he makes has to appeal to the Twin fan base too - lame argument you may say, but most never heard of Wood and this would anger some fans vs. those who know of WS hero Ellsbury or All Star Cano.