729 replies to this topic

[Manny's Hammies]

That's all fairly positive -- yet about 94% of the posts here are assuming he's gone.

Typical SoSH.

What does this even mean? SOSH not living up to your standards of...what exactly?

I for one would like to read threads about contract negotiations without 90% of the posts being about conspiracy theories and fake offers just to show the fanboy fans that they tried but the greedy player left for more money.

Exactly.

I think it means that many (possibly a majority) of the posts look at the gloomiest possible outcome (be it in player negotiations, a three-game series in May, the playoffs, or a prospect's development) and accept it as a given. It's a common thread.

Exactly. I wasn't exactly writing that in hieroglyphic. Some of this "analysis" is just downbeat, gloomy conspiracy theory for the sake of saying it.

Anyway, if it's $12M per for three years, that sounds about right -- yes, an overpay, but a reasonable one. I'm not sure Lowell will take it, but I could imagine him doing so and feeling he could live with himself for it.

Edited by Manny's Hammies, 09 November 2007 - 05:14 AM.

[someoneanywhere]

Interestingly enough, New York Newsday (and Brian Cashman) thinks he's staying here:

Cashman unable to wrangle Lowell from Red Sox

The defeatist tone of this article is pretty amazing. Not much swagger left in the big Apple, at least at the moment.

Interesting that the local articles point out that Lowell can command $14-$15mil on the open market because he shows no signs of decline, and can still catch up to a fastball, even though he's 33-34.

What a difference a few years makes from when EVERYONE thought this guy was done (many of us among them), a throw-in, albatross for the Beckett deal.

I remember Cash did the same thing before the Damon deal. It could just be a case of LouHoltzitis -- he's poor-mouthing his chances even as he gears up the offer. We'll see.

I thought the most interesting tidbit to come out yesterday, from a PR point-of-view, was not the emphasis on the "really strong" offer, but the supposedly complementary information about Mikey's home and road splits. That is the sort of thing -- I say this as a former reporter who was on the receiving end -- that a source might say, to a journalist, "You should check into his splits, especially at Yankee Stadium." The information ends up in the article and the "source" gets the angle he wants, without ever having to be quoted or put on the record about a specific question, since the "fact" exists independently of the source.

In short, someone wants it known that Mikey kills at Fenway and is average to below everywhere else, especially at la Toilette.

Edited by someoneanywhere, 09 November 2007 - 07:14 AM.

[OCD SS]

Also, though it's not in either of these articles:
5) Lowell's agent and Theo have both been saying that the talks have been going well
6) Other papers have said teams are assuming Lowell's going to return to Boston.

That's all fairly positive -- yet about 94% of the posts here are assuming he's gone.

At this point in the Damon negotiations we heard a lot of the same things. I wouldn't hold it against a message board that they happen to engage in thinking beyond a short term news cycle designed to get you to buy another paper this particular morning.

[TheoShmeo]

Interestingly enough, New York Newsday (and Brian Cashman) thinks he's staying here:

The defeatist tone of this article is pretty amazing. Not much swagger left in the big Apple, at least at the moment.

If we're using Newsday (and Ken Davidoff, the writer who broke the "Clemens to Astros" story in 2006) as an indicator, the mood in NY is a little less concilliatory today.

Lowell Deal Not Yet Done

Here's the relevant paragraph:

"Cashman professed his belief Wednesday that the Red Sox would re-sign Mike Lowell, but two people familiar with the situation emphasized Thursday that a deal was not yet done. The Red Sox are sticking to a three-year offer, whereas Lowell might get four years through free agency. Common ground might be found in a vesting option for a fourth year."

But I don't think what Davidoff writes should be analyzed too carefully. I didn't find the prior article "defeatist" or this one the opposite of that. I think what's more likely the case is that the writer is reporting what his sources are telling him, and that he probably simply believed that a Sox-Lowell deal was on the verge on Wednesday and that there's less certainty about that now. Given what we've read in the Globe and Herald, he appears to be on solid ground right now.

As to the meta discussion on SoSH's take on all of this, would some people prefer only optimistic posts? "Mikey Lowell is going to sign, dammit!" I'd prefer to see a variety of different views, as long as they are reasoned, and while I think that tea leaf reading is always weird science, the belief that a player in Mike Lowell's position will find it hard to leave $11-15 mm of guaranteed money in the form of a fourth year on the table is very easy to understand. Those who are predicting that he'll test the market based on that are probably on firmer ground than those who think he'll sign with his heart.

[smastroyin]

Exactly.
Exactly. I wasn't exactly writing that in hieroglyphic. Some of this "analysis" is just downbeat, gloomy conspiracy theory for the sake of saying it.

Anyway, if it's $12M per for three years, that sounds about right -- yes, an overpay, but a reasonable one. I'm not sure Lowell will take it, but I could imagine him doing so and feeling he could live with himself for it.

You guys have a valid point, but do you know what would be worse? Six pages of people saying "yay Sox that's the right thing to do."

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

My take is that there's just not anything to see here yet. Every local paper mentioned that it was extremely unlikely that deal with Lowell would be finalized by the end of these GM meetings.

If Lowell is dead set on getting a 4th year somewhere I'd hand him a gold watch and bid him good luck. I think 3 years is plenty long enough for him. The actual dollar figures can be hashed around, but I'd look in other directions if the length of the contract becomes an issue.

[CoRP]

For those of you wanting to characterize the situation in terms of what Schilling took to play his final year in the majors vs. what Lowell is currently contemplating please keep in mind the following:

Curt is 41 next week. This is his swan song.

Lowell is 33. In his mind his career is just starting

Curt has made over $100 million in his career and is involved in a business that could make him a quite comfortable living for the rest of his life.

Lowell has made under $40 million and as far as I know has little going on outside of baseball (and charity work I suppose).

Curt, IMO, is coming back ostensibly to burnish his HOF credentials though he may not admit to that. As a pitcher, wins are a BIG part of the equation.

Lowell is looking to re-start a career that might have been headed for the Hall had it not gone off the rails in Florida. As a position player, his HOF credentials are not dependent on playing for a winner.

Curt has school-age kids. Families agonize about moving kids at that age.

Lowell's kids are much younger and more easily moved.

Of all the "personal" reasons I have cited I think that the money is probably the most important to Mike as it should be. That $40 million he has made mostly over the past 5 years is a lot of dough but he's given 40% of that to the IRS and likely spent more than half of the rest. If he made any bad investments (a big house in an overheated Florida market that he might have bought at the height of the market in 2004 or 2005 for instance...I have no clue) it could mean that Mike has less than $10 million in capital a large chunk of which could be tied up in his home.

You're going to tell me that that's still a lot of dough, and it is, but the simple fact is that this is a guy that has a finance degree and is not stupid. He recognizes that he's got to make his killing NOW to set himself and his family up for the rest of their lives. He's used to living the good life and I would think that a contract with an extra $15 to maybe $20 million would factor significantly in his thinking. The difference between 3/12 and 4/14 sounds like 1 year and $2 million to most people but that's a whopping $20 million that he might be leaving on the table.

I'm sure he'd love to stay, but let's face it. He has his ring and he has to think about how he's going to finance the next 50 - 70(?) years of his life. If I am one of the Levinson boys I'm laying all of this on the table for him.

$5 million is a hometown discount. $20 million is a legitimate reason to play for another team including the Yankees.

[DJnVa]

Lowell is looking to re-start a career that might have been headed for the Hall had it not gone off the rails in Florida. As a position player, his HOF credentials are not dependent on playing for a winner.

This is where you lost me. Mike Lowell's seasons in Florida with 20-30 HRs and .275 average were not leading to a HOF career, not when he didn't play fulltime until he was 26.

Figure a 12 year career (which I think might be pushing it) and he tops out around 275 HRs, 1000 RBI, and 1700 hits.

[CoRP]

This is where you lost me. Mike Lowell's seasons in Florida with 20-30 HRs and .275 average were not leading to a HOF career, not when he didn't play fulltime until he was 26.

Figure a 12 year career (which I think might be pushing it) and he tops out around 275 HRs, 1000 RBI, and 1700 hits.

Fine. Agreed. But if it was me, I'd be thinking I was a HOF'er. Couple of All-Star games. An MVP vote. I'm cocky like that.

[DJnVa]

Fine. Agreed. But if it was me, I'd be thinking I was a HOF'er. Couple of All-Star games. An MVP vote. I'm cocky like that.

Awesome. But I hope you wouldn't be expecting to get paid like one.

[bsj]

If 3 years 36 is the offer, maybe I let him wrangle another mill per and go to 3/39....but there's no way he gets that year.

To be blunt, 12 million a year is plenty if Mikey truly wants to stay in Boston. And if he passes, then another tip of the cap to G38, who took less to stay where he wanted to be.

[Maalox]

But this is not at all true if both sides know the offer is below market value but perhaps acceptable because of other reasons (e.g., client particularly wants this job.)

(...)

So a first contract offer that both sides know is below market value can certainly be a final offer. And because both sides know that this is an optimized strategy, the assertion that it is a final offer is credible, which reinforces the viability.

Not uncharacteristically, you have made a very significant and very basic error in analysis here. You have either forgotten or ignored that there is a difference in the marketplace between a baseball player (or a soccer player, or an actor, or a painter) who is essentially a unique entity unto himself, and an undifferentiated commodity like a law school graduate (or an applicant for seasonal UPS work, or an orange, or a side of beef). This distinction is predicated in the interaction of two economic principles which we would didn't nap through college call "supply" and "demand." The upshot is that Mike Lowell and every other MLB player is a unique, and uniquely marketable entity, so your example has no practical application to his situation whatsoever. Hence your whole post is irrelevant.

Given that this is the Red Sox board of a Red Sox fan website, rather than the boards at Monster.com (if there are any) I wouldn't have thought that context this fundamental needed to be drawn. You came on the scene and proved otherwise.

The other thing that comes to mind is that you clearly haven't much knowledge re how law firms (and in turn, legal markets) determine their associate salaries.

[CoRP]

Awesome. But I hope you wouldn't be expecting to get paid like one.

Of course I would. I told you I was cocky. And I would have 5 Levinsons representing me, not just 2. More Levinsons = more Benjamins.

Regardless, being paid like a HOF'er would be a lot more than 4/14 which is apparently what many think the market will bear for Mikey the Hall-of-Very-Good albeit aging player.

Edited by City of Rosie Palms, 09 November 2007 - 08:57 AM.

[CoRP]

If 3 years 36 is the offer, maybe I let him wrangle another mill per and go to 3/39....but there's no way he gets that year.

To be blunt, 12 million a year is plenty if Mikey truly wants to stay in Boston. And if he passes, then another tip of the cap to G38, who took less to stay where he wanted to be.

Curt said he wanted to play only one more year. For a one year contract he took maybe $7 million less guaranteed (balanced against $6 million in incentives...which would net out to an NPV of probably $3 million) to stay. Lowell is looking at taking a $20 million haircut (probably all of which would be guaranteed) to stay. $3 million vs. $20 million.

I would not blame him if he left for an offer of 4/14 if the Sox were at 3/12 or even 3/13.

[DieHard3]

For those of you wanting to characterize the situation in terms of what Schilling took to play his final year in the majors vs. what Lowell is currently contemplating please keep in mind the following:

...

Of all the "personal" reasons I have cited I think that the money is probably the most important to Mike as it should be. That $40 million he has made mostly over the past 5 years is a lot of dough but he's given 40% of that to the IRS and likely spent more than half of the rest. If he made any bad investments (a big house in an overheated Florida market that he might have bought at the height of the market in 2004 or 2005 for instance...I have no clue) it could mean that Mike has less than $10 million in capital a large chunk of which could be tied up in his home.

You're going to tell me that that's still a lot of dough, and it is, but the simple fact is that this is a guy that has a finance degree and is not stupid. He recognizes that he's got to make his killing NOW to set himself and his family up for the rest of their lives. He's used to living the good life and I would think that a contract with an extra $15 to maybe $20 million would factor significantly in his thinking. The difference between 3/12 and 4/14 sounds like 1 year and $2 million to most people but that's a whopping $20 million that he might be leaving on the table.

I'm sure he'd love to stay, but let's face it. He has his ring and he has to think about how he's going to finance the next 50 - 70(?) years of his life. If I am one of the Levinson boys I'm laying all of this on the table for him.

$5 million is a hometown discount. $20 million is a legitimate reason to play for another team including the Yankees.

This was an excellent post. I think you're hitting the nail on the head. I'd love it if Lowell came back to the Red Sox on their terms, but I'm not going to begrudge him the opportunity to see if the Red Sox are significantly below his market value. All it takes is one GM who isn't looking at computerized guesscasting programs about player aging that are based partially on data from when players were part-time athletes and he could be looking at 4-$52 easily and possibly 5-$70 just like Drew. If he's smart, he also looking at political trends and should be building in a significant bump to the fraction he'll be giving the IRS for the rest of his life.

An extra $10 million in this contract is likely to boost his post retirement bank account by 25 percent or more. I wouldn't turn that down.

[Zupcic Fan]

I am pretty much in agreement with City of Rosie. And quite frankly, I don't really understand why Curt should get that "tip of the hat" or whatever. I'm sure that many factors go into a decision about whether or not to accept a contract offer, things I know nothing about since I have no knowledge of these guy's lives other than what I see on television.

I'm glad I never had to give Manny a "tip of the hat" for staying in Cleveland instead of taking the money and coming to Boson. I'll never harbor any negative feelings, not even one little iota, for Johnny Damon or anyone else who took a substantially better offer to leave. All that tells me is that the Red sox didn't want him as badly as the Yankees did, for whatever reason. And I find nothing wrong with that. All I'll ever do is be thankful to him for game 7 against the Yankees.

I'd love for the Sox to sign Lowell. I couldn't care less if they overpay him or give him a 4th year or make him an offer that causes all the mini general managers to scream for 25 pages of posts. But if he decides to take an offer for 4 years 60 million from some other team rather than 3 years 39 million from the Red sox, I won't hold it against him, won't write a series of "All these guys care about is the money" cliches, and certainly won't contrast it with a guy who only is interested in getting one more contract for one more year of pitching. I think it's great that Schilling signed, but it's certainly apples to oranges with this situation.

[bsj]

I would not blame him if he left for an offer of 4/14 if the Sox were at 3/12 or even 3/13.

Nor would I, necessarily but I do believe that Curt chose the road significantly less travelled in this era regardless of scale...

Zupcic, the situations are different...I was merely indicating that this instance, where a number of factors MAY interfere with a player's stated objective of staying where he wants to play, underscores how appreciative I, as a fan, am when a player such as Schilling takes a little less to stay where he wants to be. I know the situations are not exactly the same.

I would love to have Lowell back, and would hope that if he leaves it will be because of a $ issue rather than the extra year, as I do believe it was his own agent who said he was looking for a 3 year deal initially, when the early buzz revolved around 2. That said, the market has opened up, and the Lowell camp has every right to reassess as the situation unfolds...

Edited by bsj, 09 November 2007 - 09:12 AM.

[yecul]

This type of information getting out indicates two things:

1. Boston wants to start the face saving process showing their fans that they tried.

2. Lowell wants to establish the market and put some pressure on other teams.

When I look at this situation I think that a 3 year deal would be perfect and favorable to Boston. I think we all realize that this would be below market. Given that, I think it would be a mistake for Lowell to leave money on the table and not go for 4-5 years at the same or bigger dollars.

Seeing this info means that he's gone unless Boston ups their offer, IMO.

[CoRP]

Nor would I, necessarily but I do believe that Curt chose the road significantly less travelled in this era regardless of scale...

Curt made that decision over a discount with a net present value of less than 3% of his present career earnings. Lowell could be contemplating taking a discount of more than 50% of his present career earnings. The two situations aren't even in the same galaxy.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

I'd love for the Sox to sign Lowell. I couldn't care less if they overpay him or give him a 4th year or make him an offer that causes all the mini general managers to scream for 25 pages of posts.

It's amazing to me to see you write this when you were one of the most vocal people around here bitching about Drew not living up to his contract. Do you mean to tell me that you'll be perfectly fine with the Sox paying lowell 4/60 no matter how he performs from here on out, or will you start complaining about it if he were to put up something like 260/320/400 next year? Not saying that's likely, but it wouldn't be completely shocking and I could certainly see that happening in Year 3.

I just don't see how anyone can say they don't care about the Sox overpaying in years or money for a guy who prior to this year had consistent history of a major dropoff in production in the second half. And even this year, his second half numbers were bolstered by a bunch of extra singles. Personally I think that 3/$36M with a 4th year team option for $13M/$3M buyout is about as high as I'd want to see the Sox go on him.

[absintheofmalaise]

One thing I haven't seen in all of the salary discussion on a potential Lowell, A-Rod, or any other player, deal is what the last year dollars will be worth in terms of salary inflation vs. projected production. Since I'm pretty confident that owners will still be stupid and are going to overpay for FAs wouldn't you need to factor the expected rate of salary inflation into any discussion? For example a $12m salary in today's dollars will be worth roughly $10m in 2010 dollars at a 5% inflation rate. I just used 5% as an example. The average MLB salary was close to $3m in 2007 and should top that in 2008. I think my math is correct. IIRC each win above average was worth roughly $3m last year. Even with a good drop-off in production Lowell should be worth an extra 2 wins or so above average in 2010 or close to it I would think. God knows what player salaries will be then and I'm not sure what the actual salary inflation rate is and I realize that it fluctuates from year to year. I'm not including a 4th year because there is no way the Sox should go past three.

[DieHard3]

I just don't see how anyone can say they don't care about the Sox overpaying in years or money for a guy who prior to this year had consistent history of a major dropoff in production in the second half. And even this year, his second half numbers were bolstered by a bunch of extra singles. Personally I think that 3/$36M with a 4th year team option for $13M/$3M buyout is about as high as I'd want to see the Sox go on him.

I can't pick it out from the hit charts, but I guess one question you need to answer if you're the Red Sox is whether this "bunch of extra singles" was really just random good luck or whether they stemmed from Lowell's dedication to working with Magadan in order to improve his ability to go up the middle and to the opposite field a little bit more often. As is commonly noted, it only takes 1 bloop single a week off of an outside pitch that in previous years he would have grounded to shortstop in order to take him from .285 to .310. That's just hypothetical though plausible for me; only the FO knows the extent to which its true.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

I can't pick it out from the hit charts, but I guess one question you need to answer if you're the Red Sox is whether this "bunch of extra singles" was really just random good luck or whether they stemmed from Lowell's dedication to working with Magadan in order to improve his ability to go up the middle and to the opposite field a little bit more often. As is commonly noted, it only takes 1 bloop single a week off of an outside pitch that in previous years he would have grounded to shortstop in order to take him from .285 to .310. That's just hypothetical though plausible for me; only the FO knows the extent to which its true.

That's a fair point and I don't have the answer for it, but Lowell's singles rate went way up in the second half (atypical for him) as his doubles and homers declined (in typical fashion). It's better than his singles going down as well, but I think it's enough to cause some concern that what we saw may have been heavily influenced by luck or good karma or what have you.

Here are Lowell's historical splits pre and post all-star break going back to 2002. Obviously 2005 was an aberration, but I included it for completness. His double and hr rates have all gone significantly down in the second half each year (2005 aside). The only thing that changed in 2007 was that his singles rate, which had been typically been pretty flat, went significantly up.

2007	   AB   1B  2B  3B  HR
Pre		303  54  22  1   14
Post	   286  77  15  1   7

2006			
Pre		316  54  31  1   11
Post	   257  41  16  0   9

2005
Pre		288  37  24  0   4
Post	   212  36  12  1   4

2004
Pre		331  54  26  1   20
Post	   267  49  18  0   7

2003
Pre		353  44  24  1   28
Post	   139  32  3   0   10

2002
Pre		338  60  31  0   14
Post	   259  37  13  0   10

Edited by Bucknahs Bum Ankle, 09 November 2007 - 10:56 AM.

[bankshot1]

This is starting to smell like the Pedro, Damon FA dance, whether it plays out that way-who knows. But odds seem to be increasing that Lowell will wear pin-stripes.

Assuming the strong initial offer was a 3/36, and he finds out that the Ys will go 4/52-56, how much of a "home-town" discount can he be expected to give-up on his last big contract?

Or can/will the Sox sweeten the "really strong offer" by adding a 4th year based on 3rd year performance.

[Ananti]

Incentives are not really going to work because you can't peg them to production, you can only peg them to playing time. The concern with Lowell isn't that he's going to miss 80 games, it's that he'll play 150 games and put up a .750 OPS.

Edited by Ananti, 09 November 2007 - 10:44 AM.

[Zupcic Fan]

Just for clarification, I never, not once, bitched or moaned about Drew not living up to his contract. I don't even know what his contract is. My bitching about Drew was of a totally different nature and had to do with a bunch of my Cardinal and Dodger fan friends complaining about him and my agreement with their complaints, about midway through the season. I'm glad I was wrong at the end of the day in the playoffs.

But I pay no attention to anyone's contract. That simply is not my area of interest. I leave that to the people hired to make those decisions. I couldn't tell you what the contract is for anyone on the Red sox.

and ps: If Lowell starts to significantly underperform in the way which you have noted, which I doubt will happen, any compaining that I do will be completely unrelated to the size of his contract. I also like bitching and moaning about Mirabelli.

pps: I want Lowell back because I love his defense, like him as a person, love all the big hits he got. I don't care how much they pay him and assume they have enough money to sit on a bad contract in year 3 or 4 if need be. But I fully understand why Theo can't think that way, and i will also fully understand if Lowell goes to another team for exactly the same reasons that Theo won't want to pay him for year 4.

Edited by Zupcic Fan, 09 November 2007 - 10:41 AM.

[bowiac]

Chone Smith takes a stab at projecting Lowell

Mike Lowell never hit .320 before. He never hit .300 before, and he's 34 years old. CHONE has him hitting .282 next year (context neutral, a bit better if he resigns with the Red Sox). He's a good defender too. Total is 27 runs over replacement, worth about 12 million on a one year deal. At 4 years, the length he'll probably get, he's worth around 45 million.

Chone is about as good as any projection system - its results probably won't be functionally different from any other system's in this regard. I believe he's taking projected salary inflation into account here.

[SoxFanSince57]

Like most, I certainly respect Lowell's desire/intention to make as much money as he can and achieve his other contract/life objectives. I never have any problems with the free enterprise system.

But would folks please using this argument.

He recognizes that he's got to make his killing NOW to set himself and his family up for the rest of their lives.

He has already banked about 40 million. He, his family, his grand kids and his great grand kids are set up financially for their lives already. This naive statement is just too much.

[CoRP]

You're right, I am naive. I'm still wondering how I haven't managed to bank my career gross earnings.

[Soxfan in Fla]

Like Schilling right?

Schilling is a different situation altogether than Lowell. Schill has already had his last major multi-year payday. He was looking for what he felt was a fair one year only deal to stay put and got it. Lowell is looking for his last major multi-year payday.

[GriffinDoerr]

Like most, I certainly respect Lowell's desire/intention to make as much money as he can and achieve his other contract/life objectives. I never have any problems with the free enterprise system.

But would folks please using this argument.
He has already banked about 40 million. He, his family, his grand kids and his great grand kids are set up financially for their lives already. This naive statement is just too much.

Thank you. I was going to point that out as well. If a guy who has a degree in finance can't support himself and his family for the rest of his life on a quarter of that amount of money, he's either an idiot or supporting an entourage that would make MC Hammer blush.

This also is an odd comment:

Lowell is 33. In his mind his career is just starting.

How do you know what's in Lowell's mind? For all we know, he could be thinking he'd like to hang it up in a few years and attend his kids' Little League games.

[bowiac]

He has already banked about 40 million. He, his family, his grand kids and his great grand kids are set up financially for their lives already. This naive statement is just too much.

He has earned $40M already. After taxes, that's closer to $20M. God only knows what he's spent of that. It's hardly implausible that he hasn't banked nearly enough to leave his family set for life.

[smastroyin]

Thank you. I was going to point that out as well. If a guy who has a degree in finance can't support himself and his family for the rest of his life on a quarter of that amount of money, he's either an idiot or supporting an entourage that would make MC Hammer blush.

This also is an odd comment:
How do you know what's in Lowell's mind? For all we know, he could be thinking he'd like to hang it up in a few years and attend his kids' Little League games.

And yet as a counterpoint to Schilling's situation it is quite perfect.

What I would like is for people to stop ignoring the context in which arguments are presented just so that they can add their own noise to the discussion.

And of course Lowell can support himself, but if you think he should leave $20 million or somesuch on the table out of the goodness of his heart then you are seriously deranged, and I think CoRP was pretty clear in establishing the bounds of his comments.

[CoRP]

I cannot defend what I wrote any longer. Mike Lowell should love the Boston Red Sox so much that he is willing to forego more than half of all the money he has made in his entire career up to this point. If he doesn't then he is a greedy, selfish bastard and we should all hate him when he plays baseball for another team.

[bankshot1]

if the market value for Lowell's services is ~ $50mm, he'd be pretty f'ing stupid to acceot $36MM, unless he though the intangible benefit received from accepting the lower offer was worth about $14MM.

Edited by bankshot1, 09 November 2007 - 02:31 PM.

[Quintanariffic]

Like most, I certainly respect Lowell's desire/intention to make as much money as he can and achieve his other contract/life objectives. I never have any problems with the free enterprise system.

But would folks please using this argument.
He has already banked about 40 million. He, his family, his grand kids and his great grand kids are set up financially for their lives already. This naive statement is just too much.

No, he hasn't banked that much at all. When you take into account taxes and his agent's cut, he's probably banked more like $20MM. Now for most people, that's fuck you money. But when you are talking differences in potential contract value of $10-20MM from what the Sox may be offering, you need to recognize that this is equivalent to somewhere between 50% and 100% of all the money that's come into his account since he was a professional, to say nothing of what he may have left. In short, it still matters, regardless of how much that may offend you.

Edit: Baby daughter distractions means everyone beat me to it already. I'll leave it up as a testament to my sloth.

Edited by Quintanariffic, 09 November 2007 - 02:33 PM.

[glennhoffmania]

He has earned $40M already. After taxes, that's closer to $20M. God only knows what he's spent of that. It's hardly implausible that he hasn't banked nearly enough to leave his family set for life.

First of all, he doesn't pay 50% in taxes, even if you factor in his agent's cut.

Second, this is ignoring any other income he's earned, either through investments, endorsements, or other sources. Plus, they get a pension and benefits through MLBPA.

Finally, if he somehow actually does lose 50% of his paycheck, then another $10m only means $5m. I'm not saying this is chump change, but things have to be compared apples to apples if we're saying he's really only made $20m so far.

Let's stop pretending that Lowell needs this last contract to finally reach financial independence. He's been there for a while. This last deal will simply determine how ridiculously rich he'll be.

[smastroyin]

Let's stop pretending that Lowell needs this last contract to finally reach financial independence. He's been there for a while. This last deal will simply determine how ridiculously rich he'll be.

OK, here it is, right on the line.

I know you guys have nothing better to do, but stop this fucking stupid argument over semantics. Nobody's pretending anything, everyone is just arguing for the sake of it.

[Yaz4Ever]

As much as I'd love to have Mikey Lowell back (just as I would've loved to keep The Professional around forever), I'm not feeling too good about it right now. For the FO to leak the offer, I have to agree with many others who have said they're looking to move into "save face mode." I desperately hope that this doesn't result in us signing ARod (as other big market teams start to fade away) nor overpay in a trade for Cabrera. I'm off to look through the "3B not named..." thread in search of a diamond in the rough.

First of all, he doesn't pay 50% in taxes, even if you factor in his agent's cut.

Second, this is ignoring any other income he's earned, either through investments, endorsements, or other sources. Plus, they get a pension and benefits through MLBPA.

Finally, if he somehow actually does lose 50% of his paycheck, then another $10m only means $5m. I'm not saying this is chump change, but things have to be compared apples to apples if we're saying he's really only made $20m so far.

Let's stop pretending that Lowell needs this last contract to finally reach financial independence. He's been there for a while. This last deal will simply determine how ridiculously rich he'll be.

I agree, but it seems to me that a lot of players (likely due to the competitive nature they need to succeed in the bigs) look at being paid as a sign of accomplishment/respect. Some guys, like our own G38, are willing to take less to stay in a "good situation." Comparing Lowell to Schilling, however, is naive. One is at the end of a storied career, the other is at the mid-point of his.

Let's face it, the salaries earned by ALL major leaguers are obscene when compared to teachers, EMTs, firemen, the military, etc. Trying to draw similarities between the two is ridiculous as is the "they should've saved 'x' by now" or "their kids will never have to work" discussion.

[Ananti]

Maybe Lowell wants more money because he wants to build himself a 15 million dollar palace, or maybe he wants the money because he wants to spend $10 million to help the refugees in the Sudan.

It's none of our business, he has every right to seek to make as much money as possible, he doesn't own anybody any explanations for why.

[SoxScout]

Source: http://www1.whdh.com...sports/BO66519/

Nice, they publish the story only 15 hours after Joe Amorosino announces his scoop on air.

[dcmissle]

Nice, they publish the story only 15 hours after Joe Amorosino announces his scoop on air.

IMO, there is a huge difference between 3 x 12 and 3 x 15, and from what I just heard on 'EEI, Joe has clarified that the offer is the former, not the latter. If that's the case and it's firm, then there well may be something to the contention that this has been carefully choreographed to avoid a PR hit (even though I think people overestimate the PR hit).

Adios Miguel, hola Alex?

[Drek717]

Let's stop pretending that Lowell needs this last contract to finally reach financial independence. He's been there for a while. This last deal will simply determine how ridiculously rich he'll be.

He's obviously already achieved financial independence for himself and probably his children, but there is a very wide gap between the comfort levels and buying acumen of people in the $30-40M net worth range and those in the $80-90M range. The former can afford two very nice houses, high end luxuries, and will live secure in the fact that their children and grandchildren will be financially secure. The later can afford three or four extravagant houses, any luxury short of a large private island, and lives with the knowledge that their family for three or four generations minimum will be secure, and thats with the means to engage in philanthropic endeavors or to set up your non-immediate family as well.

I think Alonzo Mourning best encapsulated the difference shortly after signing his then record deal about 12 years ago with the Miami Heat. When asked if he felt he was "worth" such an outlandish sum of money he simply responded by saying that because of that contract dozens of his cousins will get to attend college without starting off life behind the financial eight ball. Thats a wonderful sentiment and something that is probably a lot more frequent an mindset than anyone really knows. Its not like all these athletes who grew up poor to middle class are now just sitting on bean bag chairs stuffed with hundies. There's a whole lot of reasons to pass up a very respectable 3/$36M to take a 4/$52M or even 5/$70M.

When an accountant leaves one firm to go to another for significantly more money and security no one begrudges him or would even expect him to settle for a lesser offer to stay where he was. Personal loyalties to our favorite sports teams shouldn't cloud our vision of the fact that pro athletes are doing a job, just like anyone else.

[Ananti]

I didn't believe the 3x15 number anyway, it makes no sense, if you're willing to go 3x15, you might as well go 4x12 instead. The difference is only 3 million and Lowell gets his fourth year.

[dcmissle]

I didn't believe the 3x15 number anyway, it makes no sense, if you're willing to go 3x15, you might as well go 4x12 instead. The difference is only 3 million and Lowell gets his fourth year.

Yes, and oddly enough this offer can be easily trumped by the MFYs (or others) offering 4 x 12, or 12.5, if you're willing to go to an even 50. If the RS offered what they truly believe Lowell is worth, that's fine. But if they wanted to make it difficult for Lowell or competing clubs, they didn't.

[JimD]

As much as I'd love to have Mikey Lowell back (just as I would've loved to keep The Professional around forever), I'm not feeling too good about it right now. For the FO to leak the offer, I have to agree with many others who have said they're looking to move into "save face mode." I desperately hope that this doesn't result in us signing ARod (as other big market teams start to fade away) nor overpay in a trade for Cabrera.

If the FO is in 'save face' mode, it's as much to show the other players that they are not lowballing Lowell as it would be to appease the fans.

In any event, I'm really not worried that Theo will panic and make a stupid move to replace Lowell - he has the cred now to get away with moves that might have caused an uproar in past years.

[Mugsys Jock]

Makes more sense as an offer the 3x15 is accompanied by an option for a fourth year that vests with a good performance in the 3rd year.

[SoxFanSince57]

In short, it still matters, regardless of how much that may offend you.

Lord have mercy.....................!

I understand/appreciate/respect Lowell for wanting to make millions more. I am all for it. Go for it Mike. Re-read my post. I have no problem with the free enterprise system!!!!!!!!!!! Do you understand me? Money is good. The free-enterprise system rules...etc. etc. I was not offended by Damon taking the best deal and I will not be offended if Lowell takes the best deal.

But, the 20 million Lowell has already banked is enough to care for his family--don't ya think? Please don't make the argument that ..."he's got to make his killing NOW to set himself and his family up for the rest of their lives." That argument is just plain ignorant and naive.

To say it again, if Mike Lowell has banked 20 million thus far in his career and will undoubtedly make a minimum of another 15-20 million after taxes with the very worst deal on the table, then he has "nearly 30-40 million dollars" in his hip pocket.

A man with 30-40 million really doesn't have to worry about the financial security of "HIS FAMILY". He and every member of his family are set up for the rest of their lives!

Mike Lowell can take a crap deal or a great deal. The argument that he should take the better deal IN ORDER TO TAKE CARE OF HIS FAMILY is a bogus argument.

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 09 November 2007 - 05:27 PM.