420 replies to this topic

[rembrat]

All of Theo’s comments indicate they intend to re-sign Lowell. I’m well aware of the other topic about Lowell’s replacement and the mega thread that is the 2008 off season. We need a topic to specifically to follow Lowell-Red Sox dealings. If there already is one please delete this and direct me to it.

One of Lowell’s suitors would have been the Phillies..

But judging from general manager Pat Gillick's words yesterday, it looks as if the Phils may stick with what they have - namely, Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs - for 2008.

"I don't know if it will be addressed," Gillick said when asked about the position on day one of the general managers' meetings at the Hyatt Grand Cypress.

Why?

"Because we're going to concentrate on improving our pitching," Gillick said.

"If we improve our pitching, we don't need to score as many runs," he said. "We don't need to score as many if we don't let in as many."

Link

[doc]

All of Theo’s comments indicate they intend to re-sign Lowell. I’m well aware of the other topic about Lowell’s replacement and the mega thread that is the 2008 off season. We need a topic to specifically to follow Lowell-Red Sox dealings. If there already is one please delete this and direct me to it.

One of Lowell’s suitors would have been the Phillies..
Link

Good thread, key point here is that Lowell has yet to file for free agency. Nobody else can rally talk to him. He really is giving the Sox to meet his demands before hitting the market.

[nasemoney]

How many days do we have to re-sign him? For some reason I thought we had 10 days after the WS.

[doc]

How many days do we have to re-sign him? For some reason I thought we had 10 days after the WS.

We have an exclusive window up to 10 days after he files for free agency. Filing deadline is 11/12 at midnight.

[gixer1k]

Man, I sure hope we can get him locked up with a fair contract for both sides.

That will make this a fun winter no matter what the weather does.

[rembrat]

Lowell filed for free agency today..

Third baseman Mike Lowell and reliever Mike Timlin filed for free agency today. Neither of them wrote letters of farewell to their teammates, as far as we know, so they were just exercising their prerogative under terms of the basic agreement.

Lowell, Timlin file

Theo..

"We're in discussions with the Levinson brothers, Mike's representatives," Epstein said. "We're working at it, hopefully moving the ball forward a little bit each day. I don't usually like to talk about contract negotiations in any type of detail unless the player wants to or does so first. In this case, I think we have a better chance of getting a deal done in relative secrecy or confidentiality. I just answer it in general terms and say we're working at it and making progress."

Linkage

/Corsi

[Savin Hillbilly]

Cafardo in today's Globe:

Sources familiar with the Lowell negotiations indicate that the popular third baseman--who officially filed for free agency yesterday--would need a third year guaranteed, and if he gets it, he's likely to take a hometown discount.

This seems like great news if it's for real. In the context of his '07 performance, I'd say a "hometown discount" would probably mean around $12M/yr....so maybe 3 years/$35 million? If that's possible it's the mother of all no-brainers. Lowell's '07 was definitely goosed a bit by luck in the form of BABIP, and his '06 may be a more realistic guide to what he will do going forward--but even the '06 level of production, with his solid defense, baserunning and clubhouse presence, is worth 3/$35, I think.

[DustyPetra]

This seems like great news if it's for real. In the context of his '07 performance, I'd say a "hometown discount" would probably mean around $12M/yr....so maybe 3 years/$35 million? If that's possible it's the mother of all no-brainers. Lowell's '07 was definitely goosed a bit by luck in the form of BABIP, and his '06 may be a more realistic guide to what he will do going forward--but even the '06 level of production, with his solid defense, baserunning and clubhouse presence, is worth 3/$35, I think.

Do you mean that Bad Mike Lowell, he of the lousy second half, would return?

I also think this would be a good deal for both Lowell and the Sox. Lowell gets security in his mid-30s, and the Sox get a calm, intelligent, sure-handed player at 3B for years to come. Youks stays at 1B, and we bring back pretty much the same team that won the Series (minus Gagne to FA, and eventually Coco to trade).

Do different kinds of players age at different rates? Lowell has never been fast, so he's not exactly going to lose his "speed." Some of his skills, like a good glove and a strong, reliable throwing arm, should age better than others. And his Fenway prowess is undeniable:

Home .373 .418 .575 .993
Away .276 .339 .428 .767

[rembrat]

And his Fenway prowess is undeniable:

Home .373 .418 .575 .993
Away .276 .339 .428 .767

All of Mike Lowell’s 2007 heroics made me forget about his 2006 Fenway numbers which were worse than his road numbers.

[Fenway].260/.327/.436 9 HR 42 RBI
[road].310/.352/.514 11 HR 38 RBI

The media tends to over stress that Lowell needs Fenway to be successful but that isn’t entirely true. Any one that has watch Lowell hit in 07 realizes that he is using the entire field, especially back up the middle. And when the Sox hit the road, I don’t expect Lowell to disappear, he is a single and doubles hitter who will occasionally run into one… I think he gets the third year.. Well I hope he does.

[FoulketoMinky]

Cafardo in today's Globe:
This seems like great news if it's for real. In the context of his '07 performance, I'd say a "hometown discount" would probably mean around $12M/yr....so maybe 3 years/$35 million? If that's possible it's the mother of all no-brainers. Lowell's '07 was definitely goosed a bit by luck in the form of BABIP, and his '06 may be a more realistic guide to what he will do going forward--but even the '06 level of production, with his solid defense, baserunning and clubhouse presence, is worth 3/$35, I think.

Please tell me a third guaranteed year isn't the sticking point. I'm with you on this one Hillbilly, if 3 years 35 gets it done they can't get that contract signed soon enough.

[Jibaholic]

I'd be ok with giving Lowell the third year. I never understood all the late season debates about Lowell in which people insisted on only two years. 36 isn't that old. But I wouldn't want to do 4 years.

[Stuffy_McInnis]

If Carardo's sources are correct, $35 million for 3 years would be an excellent sign by the 'Sox - good 3rd baseman are hard to find. However, I find it hard to believe that some team out there won't put together a deal that will be hard to resist. I could see the Halos offering a 5 year $50 million dollar contract if they can't get Arod, and if so, would Lowell be able to turn that down? I think it's still too early to know if the 'Sox can keep him.

Keep Mike Timlin, he can still pitch, even if not for a full year. His leadership alone makes it worth keeping him around.

[braudimusprime]

3/35 would almost be too good to be true. I'm stating the obvious here, but if he'll do three years, I'd give him as much money as he wants per year. 3/45 would be an excellent sign, too.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Do you mean that Bad Mike Lowell, he of the lousy second half, would return?

He actually never went away. If you normalize Mike's 07 1st half/2nd half splits to a .300 BABIP, you get this:

1st H: .300/.351/.518
2nd H: .276/.341/.409

Another way of saying the same thing is that his isolated power was .218 in the first half and .138 in the 2nd half. His .483 2nd-half SLG is the product of a .350 2nd-half AVG, which in turn stems from a .383 2nd-half BABIP (compare to 1st-half .294).

In short, he had his usual 2nd-half power drop, but it was masked by the fact that everything he hit was dropping in.

Do different kinds of players age at different rates? Lowell has never been fast, so he's not exactly going to lose his "speed." Some of his skills, like a good glove and a strong, reliable throwing arm, should age better than others.

I agree. As I've probably said before, he reminds me a bit of Dwight Evans, and could age well in much the same way Evans did.

And his Fenway prowess is undeniable:

Home .373 .418 .575 .993
Away .276 .339 .428 .767

Well, BABIP has a tale to tell about that too--in fact the home/road BABIP splits are basically identical to the 1st/2nd half ones: .382 home, .293 road. Here are the .300-BABIP-normalized home-road splits:

Home: .298/.350/.500
Road: .279/.342/.431

Last year, his home-road BABIP splits were the reverse of this year (.260/.314), and sure enough this is reflected in his overall averages:

Home: .260/.327/.436
Road: .310/.352/.514

Now it's possible that part of this BABIP reversal at Fenway in '07 is genuine progress, getting to know the park, using the Wall better, etc. But I have to think that a lot of it is luck.

The reason why I say that Lowell's '06 is a more reliable guide than his '07 is that his '06 BABIP is close to his career norm: '06 .287, career .288. And likewise, his overall '06 averages are very close to his career norm--

2006 .284/.339/.475
Career .280/.344/.468

So I think that's who Lowell really is. In a hot year he looks like Scott Rolen; in a cold year like Scott Cooper. But he's really an .810-.820 OPS guy who adds value to his resume with efficient fielding and intelligently aggressive baserunning.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 07 November 2007 - 12:01 PM.

[jschip1]

I assumed all along that it would take four guaranteed years to sign Lowell, and I still have no doubt he could get that from someone. Getting him for three years would be great, and better than I expected. That said, I agree with this

But he's really an .810-.820 OPS guy who adds value to his resume with efficient fielding and intelligently aggressive baserunning.

Expecting anything like the career year in 2007, and a real outlier especially in terms of BA, isn't smart. But if we assume more production out of CF and RF next year, and probably 1B consistently throughout the season, we won't need a career-year Lowell to have equal success.

Edit: I did mean RF.

Edited by jschip1, 07 November 2007 - 02:36 PM.

[Kevin Youkulele]

I assumed all along that it would take four guaranteed years to sign Lowell, and I still have no doubt he could get that from someone. Getting him for three years would be great, and better than I expected. That said, I agree with this
Expecting anything like the career year in 2007, and a real outlier especially in terms of BA, isn't smart. But if we assume more production out of CF and LF next year, and probably 1B consistently throughout the season, we won't need a career-year Lowell to have equal success.

Did you mean RF instead of LF? I am concerned that Manny is declining but Drew seemingly had some reasons for underperforming that shouldn't be relevant next year, like adjusting to the AL and (hopefully) his kid's health. As for 1B being more consistent, that's kind of hard to forecast--if Youk has had a couple uneven years, isn't it more likely than not that it continues? Maybe he is prone to nagging but not DL-level injuries.

[rightfield24]

3/35 would almost be too good to be true. I'm stating the obvious here, but if he'll do three years, I'd give him as much money as he wants per year. 3/45 would be an excellent sign, too.

Somewhere in that range would be fine (not my money, except for what I pay DirecTV!).

My superficial take is that the entry of Cabrera into the trade picture has taken a bit of the high end out of the Lowell FA market. Much as the MFY would be reluctant to part with young talent to get Cabrera, their need for a big bat to replace A-Rod
may mean they look at least as favorably at such a deal vs. writing a big 4-year+ check to be sure
of getting Lowell, the next-best 3B property out there.

[Kevin Youkulele]

Somewhere in that range would be fine (not my money, except for what I pay DirecTV!).

My superficial take is that the entry of Cabrera into the trade picture has taken a bit of the high end out of the Lowell FA market. Much as the MFY would be reluctant to part with young talent to get Cabrera, their need for a big bat to replace A-Rod
may mean they look at least as favorably at such a deal vs. writing a big 4-year+ check to be sure
of getting Lowell, the next-best 3B property out there.

Good point. If you're right, it would mean that there's a window of time before other teams start pursuing Lowell and the price potentially goes up. Sign him now! It could get ugly if Cabrera is traded, perhaps someone signs away their fortune for A-Rod, and then whoever is left gets desperate and starts offering 5/60 or something.

[Over Guapo Grande]

Something I saw on the main-board (whether Lowell's Fenway HRs would have been HR's elsewhere, specifically the Stade) had me scrambling to HitTracker --

9 of his total HR's were considered either JE (just enough) or Lucky. Just enough indicates

""... the ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. These are the ones that barely made it over the fence.".

Of these, 6 came at home.

At first glance, this seemed to indicate to me that he benefitted greatly from playing at Fenway- that some of these would not have been gone elsewhere. However, I think that the nature of the Monster at Fenway would lead to more "JE" home runs than elsewhere. Any ball landing within 35 feet of the wall would be considered JE.

The scatter plot of the True Distance seemed a bit more revealing. The average true distance was 375, with everything pulled (none of his HRs were within 15 degrees of dead center). Standard deviation was 22.95 feet. Eyeballing the hit chart, it seemed that there were only a few outliers (two 400+ shots, 2 < 350 feet). So, it would seem that the majority of these homers (based on True Distance) would have been gone anywhere.

In the "things that may be interesting only to me" catagory, Lowell did not hit a (regular season) home run this year in a ballpark outside the AL East.

[January]

Cafardo in today's Globe:
This seems like great news if it's for real. In the context of his '07 performance, I'd say a "hometown discount" would probably mean around $12M/yr....so maybe 3 years/$35 million? If that's possible it's the mother of all no-brainers. Lowell's '07 was definitely goosed a bit by luck in the form of BABIP, and his '06 may be a more realistic guide to what he will do going forward--but even the '06 level of production, with his solid defense, baserunning and clubhouse presence, is worth 3/$35, I think.

Actually, Lowells BABIP in 2007 wasn't all that great. It was above average, but not incredibly so, also good hitters can often sustain a BABIP a bit above average just from being able to use the entire field, etc. Frex: Jeter has a career BABIP that similar to Lowell this year. It's possible Magaden just works well with Lowell and that his success this year is somewhat sustainable as long has his health holds out.

Presumably the club would have more info than we would, but I think it's possible that 2007 wasn't as much a fluke as people think. Health would still be an issue though.

[Therdrail]

I'm in the camp where we don't need the career year Mike to win.
We just need good Mike to win, and not have Lugo/Coco/Drew all suck at the same time.
If Drew can be career average, and Jacoby can do what we hope he can do, that just leaves Lugo as a wild card,
and if he can just hit career average, there's no black holes in the lineup.
I think that would give us enough offense to do just fine.
Now thats barring someone else having a down year and we pitch as well as we did.....

Now what to pay him, expecting him to be good Mike and not career year Mike?
If Cafardo is at all right, i'd dance a jig if he took 3/35.
I'd almost say offer 3/36k, 4th year team option at 10mi, 1 mil buyout

Edited by Therdrail, 07 November 2007 - 01:35 PM.

[threecy]

The more incentives, the better. I don't think it's smart to give him any amount of money or half a decade guaranteed. I also don't like the idea of A-Rod at 3rd. It's stupid for us to speculate what's a good contract for him, since none of us have any sort of MLB front office experience.

That said, I think 3/40m is the upper limit if I were armchair GM. After that, I'd be looking at other non-A-Rod options. I think Lowell's offensive numbers will drop a bit next year, but his defensive numbers will improve (he picked up a lot of those errors in a very short period of time).

[Savin Hillbilly]

Actually, Lowells BABIP in 2007 wasn't all that great. It was above average, but not incredibly so, also good hitters can often sustain a BABIP a bit above average just from being able to use the entire field, etc. Frex: Jeter has a career BABIP that similar to Lowell this year. It's possible Magaden just works well with Lowell and that his success this year is somewhat sustainable as long has his health holds out.

Presumably the club would have more info than we would, but I think it's possible that 2007 wasn't as much a fluke as people think. Health would still be an issue though.

I wouldn't use the word "fluke," that's too strong. I'd say it was a year where Lowell was hitting in a lot of good luck, as they say, and so it should be taken with a grain of salt as a predictor of his next few years.

It's true that a .337 BABIP is not off the scale by any means, but it's the first time in Lowell's career that his BABIP has been over .300. His lifetime mark is .288. So for *him*, .337 is an outlier.

And the tricky part as far as gauging our expectations going forward is that his 2007 slugging percentage was inflated by the unusually high number of singles, and therefore hides the fact that 2007 continued a steady downward trend (disregarding 2005) in isolated power. Here's his slugging percentage graph for 2003-07:



Now here's the isolated power for the same period:



I don't think Lowell is going to fall off a cliff, but a repeat of 2007 isn't likely either.

[Moped]

Per the Herald

It appears that it will take at least three years guaranteed to keep Lowell in Boston, and negotiations likely will last for a few more days, with the urgency building up to midnight Monday, when teams can officially begin talking dollars and cents with Lowell.

To me this makes Mike staying with the sox a real possibility. The sox can afford to overpay for a beloved dirt dog thirdbaseman on the wrong side of 35, but not for more than 3 years.

If the yankees come in and offer him 5 or whatever it don't think it's going be as easy of a decision for Mike as many think. It's not all about money.

[MTKennedy]

According to this Newsday article it seems as if they have the number years pretty much agreed upon. 3 years guaranteed. Although it seems like there is a lot of speculation by the author of the article, as the quotes don't really seem to match up with what the article and headline says.

[post="http://www.newsday.c....story"]Cashman unable to wrangle Lowell[/post]

Edited by MTKennedy, 08 November 2007 - 09:56 AM.

[Moped]

According to this Newsday article it seems as if they have the number years pretty much agreed upon. 3 years guaranteed. Although it seems like there is a lot of speculation by the author of the article, as the quotes don't really seem to match up with what the article and headline says.

[post="http://www.newsday.c....story"]Cashman unable to wrangle Lowell[/post]

It Lowell gets wrapped up before tuesday I will be very impressed. Shit I am already very impressed, it will just be another sign that things are clicking in the Red Sox organization. Players want to stay and management knows when to draw the line in taking advantage of that fact.

[stevman17]

Per the Herald
To me this makes Mike staying with the sox a real possibility. The sox can afford to overpay for a beloved dirt dog thirdbaseman on the wrong side of 35, but not for more than 3 years.

If the yankees come in and offer him 5 or whatever it don't think it's going be as easy of a decision for Mike as many think. It's not all about money.

PLEASE GOD SIGN HIM YANKEES!

Look everyone. His ISOP is dropping steadily. He will be 35 next year. His defense ,by all metrics, is consistently average and bound to regress, he hit for a ridiculously high BABIP for himself last year, and we have an option to sign the best player in baseball to replace him!

With Papi getting knee surgery, and Manny missing a good chunk of time last year, it is imperative that we add another power bat to this lineup. Why is 3 years for Lowell isn't too much, but 7 years for a FAR younger( by 3 years at 32) and FAR superior player in A-Rod is? This is the type of signing the Redsox must make for a number of reasons: 1. The Yankees are not in on it. 2. He is an elite baseball player.

SIGN A-ROD!

[opes]

PLEASE GOD SIGN HIM YANKEES!

Look everyone. His ISOP is dropping steadily. He will be 35 next year. His defense ,by all metrics, is consistently average and bound to regress, he hit for a ridiculously high BABIP for himself last year, and we have an option to sign the best player in baseball to replace him!

With Papi getting knee surgery, and Manny missing a good chunk of time last year, it is imperative that we add another power bat to this lineup. Why is 3 years for Lowell isn't too much, but 7 years for a FAR younger( by 3 years at 32) and FAR superior player in A-Rod is? This is the type of signing the Redsox must make for a number of reasons: 1. The Yankees are not in on it. 2. He is an elite baseball player.

SIGN A-ROD!

STFU. ISOP ? Seriously? Thats your best arguement? Do you even know what it is? (slg - BA) A quick glance can tell me that his ISOP has only decreased from .191 last year to .177 this year. Year before that it was .124. Yeah If I was Arod and hit 50 hrs a year, my ISOP would be pretty high too. Anybody can cherry pick stats. If I batted .230 and only hit HRs my ISOP would be through the roof. Isolated power. Jesus, thats got to be the weakest arguement ever.
So yes, Mike Lowells ISOP dropped steadily from '06 to 07. Thats one Effing year retard. and It barely went down.
Overall for the money Mike Lowell is a way better deal that Arod.
Heres my arguement. Whats Arods ISOP for the world series? Whats Mikeys? Oh yeah, thats right.
Why dont you look at some more statistics, and pick out another random stat.

ISOP cmon.

[GK2186]

Screw Arod. I dont want all the dram that comes with him. The Manly Strippers. The Bush League play, or the 30 mill a year price tag. Screw Boras for sticking the Sox with that asshole contract for Drew. Sign Lowell and watch Boras and Arod squirm when there are no more big market teams willing to over pay.

[JimEdSF]

Why is 3 years for Lowell isn't too much, but 7 years for a FAR younger( by 3 years at 32) and FAR superior player in A-Rod is?

Just curious, where are you getting 7 years? Can't find it in the News search.

Folks, let's not get too crazy with the "Lowell is in decline" stuff. He's a bit older, true, and his power will decline, but his 2007 numbers are nearly identical to his 2004 numbers in every category, with the Monster in left probably accounting for a lot of the differences: some doubles turn into long singles, some HRs turn into singles and doubles.

He had a bad off-year in 2005, and worked through it last year, then peaked again in 2007. Will he repeat his 2007? Possibly not, but there's shouldn't be a concern that he's going to simply combust in '08 or '09. Fenway really plays for him (see hit chart below), and unless his contact rate suddenly drops off a cliff, he should still be able to hit, and really his D at 3B should remain pretty steady.

He's not going to be better than Arod, and I don't want to get into who should we sign, but we really shouldn't need to worry that Mikey's suddenly going to be awful.

[CreightonGubanich]

Man, I love Mike Lowell. But he has got to be one of the more overrated Red Sox to hit free agency in a long time. The problem with paying Lowell big money for next year is it leaves us, once again, without a real number five hitter to slot behind Manny. Drew was supposed to be that guy, and clearly didn't live up to it. We got lucky because we caught Lowell in a career year. But if you put 2006 Mike Lowell in the five spot, you're in some trouble, and I think that's more in line with what we can expect from Lowell going forward. I think there's a better chance that Drew rebounds than that Lowell comes back as a real run producer next season.

Opes, I'm not sure what your issue is here. Stevman made a pretty good argument for not signing Lowell. If you don't agree with it, fine. But it was pointed out that Lowell's power is steadily regressing, and his defense is consistently average. Not to mention that the Sox pretty much have to add a big bat to the lineup within the next year to replace Manny. Your rebuttal to all this is a handful of playoff at bats and a few over-the-top insults. Terrific.

All that said, if Lowell is really willing to take a three year deal, we should sign him. It's not so much the AAV of the contract as much as the years. He clearly means a lot to the guys in the clubhouse, and I don't think he's going to fall off a cliff. You hope for good production next year, and after that he can be the designated "guy who's overpaid for his intangibles", taking that spot over from Jason Varitek.

[Moped]

Screw Arod. I dont want all the dram that comes with him. The Manly Strippers. The Bush League play, or the 30 mill a year price tag. Screw Boras for sticking the Sox with that asshole contract for Drew. Sign Lowell and watch Boras and Arod squirm when there are no more big market teams willing to over pay.

amen.

There another thread about signing ARod... and it could use some haters.

[January]

I wouldn't use the word "fluke," that's too strong. I'd say it was a year where Lowell was hitting in a lot of good luck, as they say, and so it should be taken with a grain of salt as a predictor of his next few years.

It's true that a .337 BABIP is not off the scale by any means, but it's the first time in Lowell's career that his BABIP has been over .300. His lifetime mark is .288. So for *him*, .337 is an outlier.

And the tricky part as far as gauging our expectations going forward is that his 2007 slugging percentage was inflated by the unusually high number of singles, and therefore hides the fact that 2007 continued a steady downward trend (disregarding 2005) in isolated power. Here's his slugging percentage graph for 2003-07:

True, although the fact that Papi had similar improvement the same year implied to me that the difference could be coaching rather than luck. 2007 was actually the third best year of his career, so a repeat is unlikely, but something like .310/368/480 with ~17 HR seems possible for, say the next two years. It's possible the increased number of singles could be a result of the higher average. If he's hitting stuff he wasn't before, but most of the 'extra' hits were singles, that could also be an explanation.

I think he may have both turned a corner and had some luck. Lowell also seems to be a bit of a RBI guy(like Aaron), in that he hits better with people on, so having Papi, Manny and Drew in front of him is good fit in that regard. I think it's possible he could give something between his 2006 and 2007 levels for a few more years.

[Bellhorn]

PLEASE GOD SIGN HIM YANKEES!

Look everyone. His ISOP is dropping steadily. He will be 35 next year.

Hate to say it, because I love Mike Lowell, but I agree with you. He is reaching an age where the skills that drive BA (contact rate, line drive rate) usually start to decline. And it seems to me that he doesn't have the secondary skills necessary to age well at the plate. His career high in walks is 64, and for his career, the gap between his BA and OBP is .64. This is fine when you can count on him to hit .280 or above....but when the average starts to fall into the .260 range, he's going to be making a lot of outs if his walk rate doesn't improve significantly. The ISO consideration is also important - he hasn't posted an ISO above .200 since '04. The bottom line: we may be looking at a .260/.320/.440 player, sooner rather than later.

[opes]

Opes, I'm not sure what your issue is here. Stevman made a pretty good argument for not signing Lowell. If you don't agree with it, fine. But it was pointed out that Lowell's power is steadily regressing, and his defense is consistently average. Not to mention that the Sox pretty much have to add a big bat to the lineup within the next year to replace Manny. Your rebuttal to all this is a handful of playoff at bats and a few over-the-top insults. Terrific.

A pretty good arguement? how is using ISO stats a good arguement? Centering your arguement to not sign Lowell based upon his ISOP have dip from .191 to .177 is stupid arguement. Isolated power can vary from year to year. Stevman forgot to mention that the reason his ISOP decreased was because its BA increased from .284 to .324, and his SLG has increased from .475 to .501. So yeah, because his BA increase has outpaced his Slg'ing increase, his ISOP has dipped.

Theres no doubt a big bat is needed. But is ARod going to have 200 RBIs if he in the 5 hole? No. Given we need a 3rd baseman, and he is vastly cheaper option that Arod, Lowell is a better deal.

30mil/yr for 150 rbis or 15/mil 120. Do the math.

[KJD189]

For the record Lowell turns 34 in Febuary while Arod turns 33 in July so there is only 1 1/2 years age difference

Im really torn on this debate because as great as Mike Lowell was last year id be shocked if he averaged over 80rbis per for the next 3 years, nevermind coming close to another 120rbi season
I would love Arods bat in their w/ Manny and Ortiz for next year but I hate Arods "im bigger then the game" attitude w/ stunts like standing up MLB at the World Series for the Hank Aaron award presentation....even though its no MVP award nobody other then Arod has ever simply not shown up.
Im all for keeping Lowell if he signs for say 3 years 35-38$ w/ maybe a vesting option on a 4th. if he wants the 5yr 70$ the Yanks are prepared to offer good riddance
And if Arod is willing to take some money off the table to come to Boston like he was in 2003 for arguments sake ill say 8 years 27.5$avg per w/ extra incentives and option years mixed in ill take him

[CreightonGubanich]

A pretty good arguement? how is using ISO stats a good arguement? Centering your arguement to not sign Lowell based upon his ISOP have dip from .191 to .177 is stupid arguement. Isolated power can vary from year to year. Stevman forgot to mention that the reason his ISOP decreased was because its BA increased from .284 to .324, and his SLG has increased from .475 to .501. So yeah, because his BA increase has outpaced his Slg'ing increase, his ISOP has dipped.

Theres no doubt a big bat is needed. But is ARod going to have 200 RBIs if he in the 5 hole? No. Given we need a 3rd baseman, and he is vastly cheaper option that Arod, Lowell is a better deal.

30mil/yr for 150 rbis or 15/mil 120. Do the math.

Well, leaving aside the fact that the ISO drop has been a trend, not just a random fluctuation last year, and the fact that becoming more of a singles hitter is generally a precursor to decline, I'd say your RBI argument is just as bad. There are myriad reasons why A-Rod is a better player than Mike Lowell, and his few extra RBI isn't at the top of the list. And I think it's a stretch to pencil in Lowell for another 120 when you consider that he's only topped 100 one other time in his career.

[jschip1]

30mil/yr for 150 rbis or 15/mil 120. Do the math.

Seriously, you completely meltdown when someone bases an argument on ISOP (which I agree should not be the focal point of an argument) but then base your argument on RBI?

The fact is that Lowell is probably the best value for a 3B out there right now. ARod will cost nearly a third of a billion and you get his 40 yo year, Cabrera is going to cost a fortune in good young pitching and possibly Ellsbury and can't even play 3B that well, and there is really no one else. We can't expect Lowell to be anything like he was last year because it was such an outlier in his career, but there really is no reasonable alternative.

[Over Guapo Grande]

nevermind... misread.

Edited by Over Guapo Grande, 08 November 2007 - 01:08 PM.

[SkyHawk92]

I don't think you can look at signing Lowell in a vaccuum. What are the alternatives? Right now there is nobody in the system who is ML ready to play either 3B or 1B (assuming you would moves Youkilis back to 3B). So if the Sox do not re-sign Lowell they will have to go outside the organization.

ARod at 8/$240? Possibly, but if it takes more than that I would just assume Lowell at 3/$40 or 3/$42.

Trade Buchholz/Ellsbury for Cabrera and then hope to re-sign him LT to 5/$100 just as a starting point? I would rather take Lowell. And it will take BOTH Buchholz and Ellsbury. The Marlins don't have to deal Cabrera. He is available to see what kind of return they can get. They will not settle for anything less than what they think is fair.

Joe Crede, Hank Blalock, Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre - all of those options would require a decent prospect (Maybe not so much Rolen with his contract but I would take Lowell anyways).

What if Lowell signed for 3/$40 and had a 2006-type year .280/20/80 for the next two years? Would people be happy with that? For the Red Sox, that line gets it done for me to be honest. Granted 3/$40 is alot for that type of production but it is not outrageous. I keep reading "yeah but he had a career year". 2006 was not a career year but the numbers are solid. I personally could live with that. At age 34 (2008 season) and 35 I don't expect Lowell to completely lose it. I still think he will be a productive 3B over that time, both offensively and defensively.

[doc]

Seriously, you completely meltdown when someone bases an argument on ISOP (which I agree should not be the focal point of an argument) but then base your argument on RBI?

The fact is that Lowell is probably the best value for a 3B out there right now. ARod will cost nearly a third of a billion and you get his 40 yo year, Cabrera is going to cost a fortune in good young pitching and possibly Ellsbury and can't even play 3B that well, and there is really no one else. We can't expect Lowell to be anything like he was last year because it was such an outlier in his career, but there really is no reasonable alternative.

I think he used RBI as an example, because in the end the penultimate stat is a counting stat WINS. RBI's are what hitters eventually generate to turn batting into wins. As a metric to judge one player vs another it's poor because it's ultimately a team function, but as a measure of comparing two players in the identical line up I feel is fair.

[Jibaholic]

I've been watching this thread and keeping score from home. I think Savin's post one page 1 of this thread pretty effectively establishes that Lowell's 2007 season - and his purported newfound ability to avoid a second half slide - are the result of an unusually high BABIP. The 2006 Mike Lowell is what we should be expecting going forwards.

This graph shows Lowell's second half decline in ISO pretty well.



But that does not mean that Lowell's ISO is in decline. It looks to me like its been pretty steady with 2003 as an exceptionally good year and 2005 as exceptionally bad.



With that in mind, I don't see any reason not to expect the 2006 Lowell for the next few years, barring an accellerated decline.

One interesting question: suppose the team gives Lowell some more off days next season. Could that help his second half power?

[Bellhorn]

A pretty good arguement? how is using ISO stats a good arguement? Centering your arguement to not sign Lowell based upon his ISOP have dip from .191 to .177 is stupid arguement. Isolated power can vary from year to year. Stevman forgot to mention that the reason his ISOP decreased was because its BA increased from .284 to .324, and his SLG has increased from .475 to .501. So yeah, because his BA increase has outpaced his Slg'ing increase, his ISOP has dipped.

ISO generally shows much more year-to-year stability than BA. Because of this, it's a more reliable predictor of future SLG than current SLG is.

Anyway, I don't think the point is that Lowell's ISO is necessarily likely to fall of a cliff - it's that it's not really that high to begin with. So there's reason to be concerned that his pure power won't be sufficient to maintain his value as a productive player if and when his BA starts to decline.

[Savin Hillbilly]

But that does not mean that Lowell's ISO is in decline. It looks to me like its been pretty steady with 2003 as an exceptionally good year and 2005 as exceptionally bad.

Relatively steady, but I do see an overall trend there, and it looks like this:



It's a gentle arc, but an arc nonetheless, and (I think) a typical one...so while it's possible that it will travel back upward in '08, I think a more realistic best-case scenario is that it stay stable around .180....which, assuming his BABIP regresses toward the mean, will produce a SLG next year in the .460-.470 zone.

And that's OK.

[Greenwell982]

http://www.bostonher...ticleid=1043481

Sox make "really strong" offer to Lowell

Three years, unspecified money.

Sounds as if he is looking for 3 years.

Edited by Greenwell982, 08 November 2007 - 04:13 PM.

[SkyHawk92]

http://www.bostonher...ticleid=1043481

Sox make "really strong" offer to Lowell

Three years, unspecified money.

Sounds as if he is looking for 3 years.

"The Red Sox are also mulling the idea of solving a potential third-base hole internally. One idea under consideration would involve having new first baseman Chris Carter enter the major-league mix, as well as shortstop prospect Jed Lowrie."



WOW! This is news to me. I am assuming Lowrie would move from SS to 3B.

[nypdredsoxfan]

http://rotoworld.com...t/home_MLB.aspx

The Red Sox have a three-year offer out to Mike Lowell that they may not be willing to budge off of, according to the Boston Globe.

Lowell will be able to get four or maybe even five years elsewhere, something the Red Sox must know. If they're sticking to three years, it better include a very good salary ($16 million per year or so). While Lowell wants to play in Boston, he can only leave so much money on the table.
Source: Boston.com

Edited by nypdredsoxfan, 08 November 2007 - 05:17 PM.

[Canary]

They're Damoning Lowell. Fantastic. Why not just sign him over to the Yankees right now?

Edited by Canary, 08 November 2007 - 05:23 PM.

[opes]

"The Red Sox are also mulling the idea of solving a potential third-base hole internally. One idea under consideration would involve having new first baseman Chris Carter enter the major-league mix, as well as shortstop prospect Jed Lowrie."



WOW! This is news to me. I am assuming Lowrie would move from SS to 3B.

Or possibly Carter to 1st, and youks to 3rd. From what I hear of Carters fielding, I'd rather have Lowries Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Year, and his decent glove at 3rd over Carter.

[Savin Hillbilly]

They're Damoning Lowell. Fantastic. Why not just sign him over to the Yankees right now?

Well, there's two sides to that. If you're a Yankee fan right now, how do you feel about being into Damon for two more years at $13M/yr?

I have no problem with "Damoning" Lowell if that means "refusing to be maneuvered into overpaying for him."