43 replies to this topic

[Eric Van]

Except where noted, I've simply taken WPA and multiplied it by the improvement in Post-Season Odds created by each victory, as calculated by Clay Davenport of BP.

Note that each play is evaluated by its importance at the time.


There are 12 plays that really stand out.

12. ALCS Game 7, bottom of the 7th. Jacoby Ellsbury leads off against Rafael Betancourt with the Sox leading 3-2, and hits a GB to Casey Blake's right which he boots for an error. Ellsbury reaches 2B with a crucial potential insurance run. Julio Lugo will bunt him to 3B; see #5 for what happens next. .055 WPA * .239 Game Weight = 1.31% improvement in WS victory odds.

11. World Series Game 2, bottom of the 4th. With the Sox down 1-0, J.D. Drew lines a 1-out single to RF off of Ubaldo Jimenez, and Mike Lowell goes from 1st to 3rd, just beating Brad Hawpe's throw as Drew takes 2nd. Jason Varitek will hit Jimenez's next pitch to CF for the game-tying Sac Fly. .109 WPA * .129 Game Weight = 1.41% improvement.

10. ALCS Game 7, top of the 7th. Kenny Lofton is on 2B with 1 out after Julio Lugo dropped his popup to short LF. Franklin Gutierrez hits a hard grounder off of Hideki Okajima down the 3B line which caroms into short LF, and Lofton seems certain to score to tie the game at 3-3, but 3B coach Joel Skinner misreads Manny Ramirez's position and holds Lofton at 3B. The WPA tables in The Book give us the difference between what should have happened and what did. .062 WPA * .239 = 1.48%.

9. World Series Game 3, top of the 8th. Sox are clinging to a 6-5 lead. With 1 out and Julio Lugo on 2nd and pinch-hitter Coco Crisp on 1st, Jacoby Ellsbury faces tough LHP Brian Fuentes and bloops a 2B to RF just out of the reach of the diving Hawpe. Lugo scores the crucial insurance run and Crisp goes to 3B. .131 * .121 = 1.61%.

8. ALCS Game 7, top of the 8th. Jonathan Papelbon relieves Hideki Okajima with Grady Sizemore on 2B and Asdrubal Cabrera on 1B and no out and the Sox leading 5-2, and fans Travis Hafner on three pitches. .070 * .239 = 1.67%.

7. World Series Game 2, bottom of the 5th. With the game tied 1-1, 2 out, David Ortiz on 2B and Manny Ramirez on 1B, Mike Lowell lines a go-ahead RBI 2B to LF, chasing starter Ubaldo Jimenez. .152 * .129 = 1.97%.

Note that #8 was rendered moot by the late Red Sox rally while #7 held up as the difference in the game, but we didn't know that when they happened.

6. ALCS Game 7, bottom of the 1st. With 1 out and Dustin Pedroia on 2B and Kevin Youkilis on 1B, Manny Ramirez pokes a grounder off of Jake Westbrook just to Jhonny Peralta's left to give the Sox a 1-0 lead, Youkilis stopping at 2B. .088 * .239 = 2.10%.

5. ALCS Game 7. bottom of the 7th. The Sox lead 3-2 and have a crucial insurance run in Jacoby Ellsbury at 3B with 1 out. Dustin Pedroia hits the heretofore untouchable Rafael Betancourt's 0-1 pitch into the Monster seats to put the Sox up 5-2. .100 * .239 = 2.39%.

4. ALCS Game 7, top of the 5th. With the Sox leading 3-1, Kenny Lofton leads off the inning with what should have been a wall-ball 2B off of Daisuke Matsuzaka. Manny Ramirez makes a great play to nearly throw out Lofton at 2B, and umpire Brian Gorman helps exorcise the ghosts of Tim Tschida and Larry Barnett by calling him out. The net WPA reported by FanGraphs for this play is .030 for getting the leadoff man out, but you have to include the -.074 that the 2B would have been. .104 * .239 = 2.48%.

3. ALDS Game 2, bottom of the 9th. With the score tied 3-3, Julio Lugo on 2B and David Ortiz on 1B after a 2-out IBB, Manny Ramirez crushes ace closer Francisco Rodriguez's 1-0 pitch way, way over the Monster for his first walk-off HR in a Red Sox uniform.

2. ALCS Game 6, bottom of the 1st. Fausto Carmona has nearly gotten out of a bases-loaded, no-out jam unscathed by fanning Ramirez and getting Lowell on a short fly to RF, but J.D. Drew hits his 3-1 pitch into the CF camera station for a 2-out grand slam. .098 * .267 = 2.63%.

This was the biggest hit of the post-season, and since #1 was rendered moot whereas #2 utterly changed the game, it is quite arguably the most important play.

1. ALCS Game 7, top of the 7th. Sox lead 3-2 but the Indians have Kenny Lofton on 3B and Franklin Gutierrez on 1B with 1 out. Hideki Okajima gets Casey Blake to hit his 1st pitch to Mike Lowell for an inning-ending 5-4-3 DP. .220 * .239 = 5.25%, which is to say more value than the Drew and Ramirez HRs combined.

Next: the full list of the top 75 plays.

Edited by Eric Van, 02 November 2007 - 02:45 PM.

[Saints Rest]

Cool stuff.

Will you be able to sort and tally this list (I assume you have it in Excel), by player contribution? In example #11, does the credit go to Drew or to Lowell? Or is it split somehow?

[Lose Remerswaal]

Would Papelbon's pickoff of Holliday register on a scale like this?

[LahoudOrBillyC]

2. ALCS Game 6, bottom of the 1st. Fausto Carmona has nearly gotten out of a bases-loaded, no-out jam unscathed by fanning Ramirez and getting Lowell on a short fly to RF, but J.D. Drew hits his 2-2 pitch into the CF camera station for a 2-out grand slam. .098 * .267 = 2.63%.

This was the biggest hit of the post-season, and since #1 was rendered moot whereas #2 utterly changed the game, it is quite arguably the most important play.

1. ALCS Game 7, top of the 7th. Sox lead 3-2 but the Indians have Kenny Lofton on 3B and Franklin Gutierrez on 1B with 1 out. Hideki Okajima gets Casey Blake to hit his 1st pitch to Mike Lowell for an inning-ending 5-4-3 DP. .220 * .239 = 5.25%, which is to say more value than the Drew and Ramirez HRs combined.

Great stuff, Eric. In your comment between 2 and 1, I suggest that both of these plays were later rendered moot. If anything, Game 6 ended up effectively over much earlier than Game 7. They were both gigantic plays, I am only quibbling with your pointing out that one of them later became moot, as opposed to the other.

[Rice4HOF]

Would Papelbon's pickoff of Holliday register on a scale like this?

It certainly counts, but I think the statistical value of it (rather than the emotional / we killed their momentum etc value) is fairly low. As I recall there were 2 outs in the 8th inning of a 1 run game. So he was the tying run. But since there were 2 outs, the probability of him scoring are only about 10%. The probabity of us winning the game at the time was about 80%, and with the pickoff it increased to about 85%. A good improvement, but not as much as Drew's hit (#11 on the list) or Lowell's double (#7).
From a WPA perspective, striking out Helton to start the 9th was even more valuable. The first out of the 7th and 8th innings were probably more valuable too.

For WPA the first out of the inning is usually more valuable than the last. For example, if you have a tie-game in the 9th, getting the first batter out is more valuable than getting out of a 2-outs bases-loaded jam.

[tims4wins]

I'm somewhat surprised that Youk's triple off of Grady Sizemore's glove in game 5 of the ALCS didn't register on this list. IIRC the Sox were up 2 to 1 at the time, and the triple scored a 3rd run, led to a 4th, and basically put that game away. Once the Sox won game 5, I certainly believed they had a legit shot at winning the series. I guess it goes to show you that WPA doesn't necessarily equate with the emotional lift we get from certain events.

[sfip]

How can a walkoff be less important than a 1st inning GS?

[behindthepen]

I'm somewhat surprised that Youk's triple off of Grady Sizemore's glove in game 5 of the ALCS didn't register on this list. IIRC the Sox were up 2 to 1 at the time, and the triple scored a 3rd run, led to a 4th, and basically put that game away. Once the Sox won game 5, I certainly believed they had a legit shot at winning the series. I guess it goes to show you that WPA doesn't necessarily equate with the emotional lift we get from certain events.

Maybe EV can include the game-by-game odds; it probably has something to do with the overall value of the game.

[smastroyin]

How can a walkoff be less important than a 1st inning GS?

Because winning Game 2 of the ALDS to go up 2-0 has a lot less to do with winning the World Series than winning Game 6 of the ALCS while down 3-2.

[Rice4HOF]

Also, that 1st inning GS put us in a position to have an 84% probability of winning the game. (according to protrade). If he gets out we're back down to 50%, so it increased it by .34.

The Manny homerun came with 2 man on base in the bottom of the 9th. Our probability of winning that game at that point in time were already at 65%. So it was worth about .35. Very close to Drew's GS. If there was nobody on, from a WPA perspective it would have been worth a lot more as our probabily of winning would have been lower.

Also, as soon as I saw this thread, the first thing that came to my head was Oki;s double play in Game 7. Interesting that EV says that the ensuing rally make that play moot, so Drew's GS is arguably the most important play, but you could also argue that the 8 runs we scored in the rest of that game also made Drew's hit moot. If we had squandered that opportunity (and the rest of the game all stayed the same - I know highly unlikely), we wold have won 8-2 instead of 12-2.

[Eric Van]

Would Papelbon's pickoff of Holliday register on a scale like this?

It's 45th. And Youks' 3B in game 5 of the ALCS is indeed the most important play of that game, but it's 56th overall. Full list shortly . . .

Here are the game weights.

Game Weights

Game	Weight
ALDS1	.061
ALDS2	.067
ALDS3	.059
ALCS1	.030
ALCS5	.052
ALCS6	.090
ALCS7	.239
WS1	.123
WS2	.129
WS3	.121
WS4	.036

[soxfaninyankeeland]

8. ALCS Game 7, top of the 8th. Jonathan Papelbon relieves Hideki Okajima with Grady Sizemore on 2B and Asdrubal Cabrera on 1B and no out and the Sox leading 3-2, and fans Travis Hafner on three pitches. .070 * .239 = 1.67%.

The Sox led 5-2 at the time Papelbon faced Hafner, as Pedroia's HR was hit in the bottom of the 7th. I assume Papelbon facing Hafner as only the tying run instead of Hafner with the tying and go-ahead runs on base will alter the ranking of this AB.

[Eric Van]

Also, as soon as I saw this thread, the first thing that came to my head was Oki;s double play in Game 7. Interesting that EV says that the ensuing rally make that play moot, so Drew's GS is arguably the most important play, but you could also argue that the 8 runs we scored in the rest of that game also made Drew's hit moot. If we had squandered that opportunity (and the rest of the game all stayed the same - I know highly unlikely), we wold have won 8-2 instead of 12-2.

Lahoud or BillyC made the same point, but I think the two "moots" are very different.

In ALCS7, the Indians' bullpen blew up from overwork in the bottom of the 7th and this would have almost certainly have happened if they'd tied the score or gone ahead in the top half. You can't argue that Betancourt makes different pitches tied or up a run as opposed to down a run, not in an elimination game.

In ALCS6, if Carmona gets out of that jam in spectacular fashion, who knows how the rest of the game would have played out? He got out of a jam in the 2nd, then was lifted when he allowed a run in the 3rd (and left 2 on with 0 out). This is a guy whose craptacular performance as a closer last year suggests he has pressure / confidence issues. His stuff wasn't awful in that game. There's no guarantee he gets hammered if he gets Drew out, and so you can't just assume we score the further 8 runs anyway.

[Eric Van]

The Sox led 5-2 at the time Papelbon faced Hafner, as Pedroia's HR was hit in the bottom of the 7th. I assume Papelbon facing Hafner as only the tying run instead of Hafner with the tying and go-ahead runs on base will alter the ranking of this AB.

Nope, the ranking is correct, just my description is wrong. If it had still been 3-2, it would have ranked 2nd. Thanks for catching this.

[tims4wins]

Maybe EV can include the game-by-game odds; it probably has something to do with the overall value of the game.

Good call. It was the 3rd least important of the 11 playoff wins from an importance of winning that game to winning the World Series perspective (statistically speaking), but I think we would all agree that winning game 5 against Sabathia was an incredibly important game for this team, maybe the most important game of the playoffs. Once they got back to Fenway, their chances of winning the ALCS were much higher than statistical models would suggest, IMO.

[William Robertson]

Great post, Eric. I like the way you describe the Manny throwout of Lofton, and per your comment there, I think Sox fans can't complain too much about how the karmic wheel turned in 2007. (Viz., also, where Pedroia's HR landed, compared to various enemy fly balls that were just short or just wide, as perhaps the other most obvious example.) I don't know if "karmic balancing" is subject to quantitative analysis--want to try?

[Eric Van]

Great post, Eric. I like the way you describe the Manny throwout of Lofton, and per your comment there, I think Sox fans can't complain too much about how the karmic wheel turned in 2007. (Viz., also, where Pedroia's HR landed, compared to various enemy fly balls that were just short or just wide, as perhaps the other most obvious example.) I don't know if "karmic balancing" is subject to quantitative analysis--want to try?

We really had incredibly bad luck in ALCS Games 2 through 4: 9 more line drives hit right at people than they did, Crisp's ball in the corner, Lofton's HR off the top of the wall.

Back in the Curse days I was fond of saying "Luck doesn't even out in the course of a series. In fact, if you're a Sox fan, you know that luck doesn't even out in the course of your lifetime." But the luck in this post-season turned wonderfully sometime after the blown Manny HR call, and stayed with us.

[Jethro Q. Walrustitty]

Did you consider any plays from games which the Sox lost, and if so, what weights did you use for those hypothetical wins?

[Rice4HOF]

Statisticians have a term they use which refers to "karmic balancing". They call it "regression to mean". Sounds more sophisticated, but I think it's the same thing.

But on a more serious note, the biggest criticism that WPA and other statistical models have is that they don't capture things like emotion, or more qualitatively analytical things like pitcher/batter matchups. According to the models, a team has the same proability of winning a game, if Ortiz comes up down by a run with 2 outs in the 9th with a runner on base, or if the pitcher is at the plate. You and I know both which one has the higher probability of resulting in a win for us. Also, in looking at the games that are more important in winning the Series, when we were down 3-1 given that Beckett was pitching Game 5, and then we had 6 and 7 at home with all the momentum, I'm sure the probabilites were understated.

I'd like to see a list of what the fans thought were the "turning points" in each game, vs. the ones that ranked the highest in WPA. I'm sure there would be a high correlation, but also some surprises. I for one, thought Holliday's pickoff in Game 2 was HUGE... I was almost sinking into that pre-2004 "oh, no, here comes the inevitable HR and gut-wrenching loss" feeling until the pickoff. But WPA says it was 'meh'.

But I concur this was a great post Eric. Thank you for giving me something to keep my brain busy on a Friday afternoon when I don't feel too motivated to do real work.

[cutman1000]

Nitpicking here, but was JD Drew's grandslam really on a 2-2 pitch? I seem to remember him working the count in his favor and then crushing either the 2-1 or 3-1 pitch.

[Ananti]

It was a 3-1 pitch.

[Eric Van]

Nitpicking here, but was JD Drew's grandslam really on a 2-2 pitch? I seem to remember him working the count in his favor and then crushing either the 2-1 or 3-1 pitch.

Misreading a "B" on my scoresheet as an "F" -- it was indeed a 3-1 pitch. Hmm, I thought that 2-2 sounded wrong! Good catch.

[LateRally]

Back in the Curse days I was fond of saying "Luck doesn't even out in the course of a series. In fact, if you're a Sox fan, you know that luck doesn't even out in the course of your lifetime." But the luck in this post-season turned wonderfully sometime after the blown Manny HR call, and stayed with us.

Speaking of luck, #6 on the list reminds me of at least 2 ground balls to Peralta during Game 6, both of which ended up being infield singles. One because the ball hit the lip of the infield grass and deflected down, and the other hitting the same lip and shooting up. Looking over the game log, I think the first of these is the single by Youk ahead of the Drew slam.

2. ALCS Game 6, bottom of the 1st. Fausto Carmona has nearly gotten out of a bases-loaded, no-out jam unscathed by fanning Ramirez and getting Lowell on a short fly to RF, but J.D. Drew hits his 2-2 pitch into the CF camera station for a 2-out grand slam. .098 * .267 = 2.63%.

Very minor point, but I'm almost positive the count on Drew was 3-1.

edit: never mind beaten to it

Edited by LateRally, 02 November 2007 - 02:47 PM.

[Eric Van]

But on a more serious note, the biggest criticism that WPA and other statistical models have is that they don't capture things like emotion, or more qualitatively analytical things like pitcher/batter matchups. According to the models, a team has the same proability of winning a game, if Ortiz comes up down by a run with 2 outs in the 9th with a runner on base, or if the pitcher is at the plate. You and I know both which one has the higher probability of resulting in a win for us.

I've been outlining a methodology to adjust WPA for the quality of competition (i.e., specific matchups), and I'm sure folks like Tango have been giving it thought as well.

A walk-off HR by Ortiz vs. a AAA callup gets the same WPA (for both players involved) as an "identical" walk-off by, say, Alex Cora vs. B.J. Ryan. That's obviously not right. So you need to calculate the Win Expectancy two ways for every PA -- average hitter vs. this pitcher, and average pitcher vs. this hitter. That allows you to calculate a fair WPA for each guy. They no longer sum to zero, so each team has a pair of buckets (one for offense, one for D) where you put the difference, the buckets thus representing the situationallly adjusted quality of the opposition they faced that day. Which would be very cool -- the value of that buckets at the end of the year, compared to the expected values based on raw hitting and pitching lines, tells you how well the lineup was constructed and how well the bullpen was leveraged.

It's a much-needed next step, and I would expect to see it implemented soon, perhaps for the 2009 season.

[Eric Van]

Here are all the plays that improved our chances of being World Champions by more than 0.5% (actually, 0.5051% because I was making it up as I went along.) I'm sure there are half a dozen more minor errors.

I've tried to include outstanding fielding plays (in italics); it turns out that there weren't many with the game on the line. The biggest was Lugo's snare of Baker's 2-out liner in WS Game 3. I've given Lugo all the credit for that (when he probably deserves 85% or something), but I have also calculated the WPA by assuming the ball is just a 1B when it might have found the gap for a 2B. The two probably cancel each other out. The other is also by Lugo, a nice play in ALCS 7 that I figure is missed by 1/3 of SS, so I gave him credit for 1/3 of the change in WPA if the ball had gone through.

Important Plays!

[td=*][color="#000000"]ALCS5[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]t3[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]Ramirez disputed 2-out 1B (HR?) off of Sabathia drives in Ortiz from 1B to make it 2-1.[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]72[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].023[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].239[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]0.55%[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]ALCS7[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]t1[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]Matsuzaka gets leadoff hitter Sizemore to pop to 2B.[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]73[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].041[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].129[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]0.53%[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]WS2[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]t8[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]Okajima fans Matsui with 1 out and 0 on, up 2-1.[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]74[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].088[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].059[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]0.52%[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]ALDS3[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]b7[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]Schilling gets Rivera to pop to 1B with man on 3rd and 1 out, up 2-0.[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]75[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].043[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].121[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]0.52%[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]WS3[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]b1[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]Matsuzaka gets Matsui off 2B on 1-out comebacker by Holliday.[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]76[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].043[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].121[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]0.52%[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]WS3[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]b6[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]Timlin gets Spilborghs to fly to RF with 2 on and 1 out, up 6-2.[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]77[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].040[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"].129[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]0.52%[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]WS2[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]t9[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]Papelbon fans Hawpe to end the game.[/color] [/td]

Rank	WPA	Weight	WCPA	Game	Inn	Play
1	.220	.239	5.25%	ALCS7	t7	Okajima gets Blake to hit into 543 DP with runners on corners and 1 out, up 3-2.
2	.267	.098	2.63%	ALCS6	b1	Drew hits 2-out GS off of Carmona.
3	.383	.067	2.58%	ALDS2	b9	Ramirez hits 2-out 3-run walkoff HR off of Rodriguez.
4	.104	.239	2.48%	ALCS7	t5	Ramirez "throws out" Lofton at 2B after he leads off with 1B, up 3-1.
5	.100	.239	2.39%	ALCS7	b7	Pedroia hits 1-out 2-run HR off of Betancourt to make it 5-2.
6	.088	.239	2.10%	ALCS7	b1	Ramirez 1-out 1B off of Westbrook drives in Pedroia and moves Youkilis to 2B, making it 1-0.
7	.152	.129	1.97%	WS2	b5	Lowell 2-out 2B off of Jimenez plates Ortiz and moves Ramirez to 3B, making it 2-1.
8	.070	.239	1.67%	ALCS7	t8	Papelbon fans Hafner with 2 on and 0 out, up 3-2.
9	.133	.121	1.61%	WS3	t8	Ellsbury 1-out 2B off of Fuentes drives in Lugo and moves Crisp to 3B, making it 7-5.
10	.062	.239	1.48%	ALCS7	t7	Skinner holds Lofton at 3B when he could have certainly scored the tying run on Gutierrez's 1B.
11	.109	.129	1.41%	WS2	b4	Drew 1-out 1B off of Jimenez moves Lowell to 3B.
12	.055	.239	1.31%	ALCS7	b7	Ellsbury leads off against Betancourt and reaches 2B on error by Blake, up 3-2.
13	.098	.129	1.27%	WS2	t6	Okajima fans Hawpe with men on 2B and 3B and 2 out, up 2-1.
14	.053	.239	1.27%	ALCS7	b2	Ellsbury 1B off of Westbrook moves Varitek to 3B with 0 out, up 1-0.
15	.053	.239	1.27%	ALCS7	b2	Varitek leads off with 2B off of Westbrook, up 1-0.
16	.104	.121	1.26%	WS3	t3	Ortiz 2B off of Fogg with runners on corners and 0 out makes it 1-0.
17	.052	.239	1.24%	ALCS7	b1	Youkilis 1B off of Westbrook moves Pedroia to 2B with 0 out.
18	.101	.121	1.23%	WS3	b6	Lugo robs Baker with leaping catch with 2 on and 2 out, up 6-2.
19	.051	.239	1.22%	ALCS7	t8	Papelbon gets Martinez 46 with 2 on and 1 out, up 3-2.
20	.099	.121	1.20%	WS3	t3	Matsuzaka 2-out, bases-loaded 1B off of Francis makes it 5-0.
21	.093	.123	1.15%	WS1	b1	Pedroia leads off with HR off of Francis.
22	.048	.239	1.15%	ALCS7	b1	Lowell 1B off of Westbrook loads bases with 1 out, up 1-0.
23	.047	.239	1.12%	ALCS7	t8	Papelbon gets Garko to fly to CF with runners on corners and 2 out, up 3-2.
24	.045	.239	1.07%	ALCS7	t7	Okajima gets leadoff hitter Peralta to fly to RF, up 3-2.
25	.045	.239	1.07%	ALCS7	b4	Lugo 1B off of Westbrook moves Ellsbury to 3B with 1 out, up 3-1.
26	.043	.239	1.03%	ALCS7	b3	Youkilis leads off with 2B off of Westbrook, up 2-0.
27	.083	.123	1.02%	WS1	b2	Ortiz 1-out 2B off of Francis drives in Youkilis from 1B and makes it 4-1.
28	.150	.067	1.01%	ALDS2	b1	Drew bases-loaded, 2-out 2-RBI 1B off of Escobar.
29	.042	.239	1.00%	ALCS7	t4	Lugo makes nice play up the middle on Peralta with man on 2nd and 2 out, up 3-1 (1/3 credit).
30	.081	.123	1.00%	WS1	b1	Drew 2-out 2B off of Francis drives in Ramirez and moves Varitek to 3B, making it 3-0.
31	.081	.123	1.00%	WS1	b4	Varitek 2-out bases-loaded ground-rule 2B off of Franics makes it 6-1.
32	.077	.129	1.00%	WS2	t9	Papelbon fans leadoff hitter Helton, up 2-1.
33	.082	.121	1.00%	WS3	t3	Lowell 0-out, bases-loaded 1B off of Fogg plates 2 and makes it 3-0.
34	.038	.239	0.91%	ALCS7	t6	Okajima gets leadoff hitter Hafner to fly to LF, up 3-2.
35	.071	.121	0.86%	WS3	b7	Okajima fans Atkins with man on 1B and 0 out, up 6-5.
36	.036	.239	0.86%	ALCS7	t4	Matsuzaka gets Peralta 63 with man on 2B and 2 out, up 3-1.
37	.070	.121	0.85%	WS3	t3	Pedroia bunt 1B off of Fogg puts runners on corners with 0 out, tied 0-0.
38	.138	.061	0.84%	ALDS 1	b3	Ortiz 2-run HR off of Lackey makes it 3-0.
39	.123	.067	0.83%	ALDS2	t8	Papelbon fans Figgins with 2 outs and men on 2nd and 3rd to keep 3-3 tie.
40	.034	.239	0.81%	ALCS7	t4	Matsuzaka gets Martinez on comebacker with man on 2B and 1 out, up 3-0.
41	.034	.239	0.81%	ALCS7	t3	Matsuzaka fans Sizemore with man on 2B and 2 out, up 2-0.
42	.034	.239	0.81%	ALCS7	b1	Pedroia leads off with 1B off of Westbrook.
43	.066	.121	0.80%	WS3	t3	Ellsbury leads off against Fogg with 2B, tied 0-0.
44	.033	.239	0.79%	ALCS7	t5	Matsuzaka fans Cabrera with man on 1B and 2 out, up 3-2.
45	.060	.129	0.78%	WS2	t8	Papelbon picks off Holliday to end inning, up 2-1.
46	.062	.121	0.75%	WS3	b7	Okajima fans Hawpe with man on 1B ans 1 out, up 6-5.
47	.057	.129	0.74%	WS2	t8	Okajima fans leadoff hitter Taveras, up 2-1.
48	.057	.129	0.74%	WS2	t9	Papelbon gets Atkins to fly to CF for 2nd out, up 2-1.
49	.117	.059	0.70%	ALDS3	t4	Ortiz leadoff HR off Weaver makes it 1-0.
50	.057	.121	0.69%	WS3	t8	Pedroia 1-out 2B off of Fuentes plates 2 and makes it 9-5.
51	.054	.121	0.66%	WS3	t1	Pedroia inf 1B off of Fogg moves Ellsbury to 2B with 0 out.
52	.066	.098	0.65%	ALCS6	b1	Ortiz draws BB off of Carmona to load bases with 0 outs.
53	.050	.129	0.65%	WS2	t2	Schilling gets Torrealba to hit into 1-out 63 GDP, down 1-0.
54	.027	.239	0.64%	ALCS7	t6	Okajima gets Martinez to fly to RF with 1 out, up 3-2.
55	.053	.121	0.64%	WS3	b7	Okajima gets Torrealba on comebacker with man on 1B and 2 out, up 6-5.
56	.123	.052	0.64%	ALCS5	t7	Youkilis 3B off Sabathia drives in Pedroia from 2B to make it 3-1 with 0 outs.
57	.026	.239	0.62%	ALCS7	t3	Matsuzaka gets leadoff hitter Lofton to fly toi RF, up 2-0.
58	.050	.123	0.62%	WS1	b1	Youkilis follows Pedroia's leadoff HR with 2B off of Francis.
59	.103	.059	0.61%	ALDS3	t4	Manny goes back-to-back off Weaver to make it 2-0.
60	.047	.129	0.61%	WS2	t5	Schilling fans Spilborghs with man on 2B and 1 out, tied 1-1.
61	.102	.059	0.61%	ALDS3	t2	Lowell 2B off of Weaver moves Ramirez to 3B with 0 outs.
62	.025	.239	0.60%	ALCS7	t2	Matsuzaka gets leadoff hitter Martinez to line to 3B, up 1-0
63	.088	.067	0.59%	ALDS2	b5	Pedroia leadoff 2B off of Escobar.
64	.096	.061	0.59%	ALDS 1	b1	Youkilis 1-out solo HR off of Lackey
65	.045	.129	0.58%	WS2	t5	Schilling gets Taveras 63 with man on 2B and 2 out, tied 1-1.
66	.045	.129	0.58%	WS2	t7	Okajima gets leadoff hitter Tulowitzki to fly to RF, up 2-1.
67	.045	.129	0.58%	WS2	t6	Okajima gets Atkins 3U with 2 on and 1 out, up 2-1.
68	.047	.123	0.58%	WS1	b1	Ramirez 1B off of Francis drives in Youkilis from 3B with 1 out, making it 2-0.
69	.024	.239	0.57%	ALCS7	t4	Matsuzaka gets leadoff hitter Cabrera to pop to SS, up 3-0.
70	.024	.239	0.57%	ALCS7	b4	Varitek leads off with 1B off of Westbrook, up 3-1.
71	.110	.052	0.57%

[Eric Van]

Did you consider any plays from games which the Sox lost, and if so, what weights did you use for those hypothetical wins?

Since we don't know what the WS odds would have been had we won the game, I excluded the 3 losses. However, I could probably guesstimate based on the change to the Indians' odds. So maybe I'll do a supplemental list of key plays in the games we lost anyway.

[JokersWildJIMED]

Drew's GS has got to be the most important play of the playoffs...as we saw in late July a confident Carmona is a very dangerous thing, it allowed an early entry into the Cleveland bullpen making fewer effective pitchers for game 7, and it provided Schilling with the comfortable lead...

Just an outstanding post by EV, who IMHO is the Will McDonough of SOSH, since when he posts it is must reading.

[Jethro Q. Walrustitty]

Since we don't know what the WS odds would have been had we won the game, I excluded the 3 losses. However, I could probably guesstimate based on the change to the Indians' odds. So maybe I'll do a supplemental list of key plays in the games we lost anyway.

I'm mostly thinking of Varitek's homer in game 3 in the 7th to cut the lead to 4-2. I can't think of any other plays in the 3 losses that might make the top 15.

[MentalDisabldLst]

some of wakefield's escapes from jams before he melted down in game 4 come to mind.

actually, game 2 had all sorts of tense moments when they tied the game up or we tied the game up. up until the 11th it had all sorts of swings.

[singaporesoxfan]

I've been outlining a methodology to adjust WPA for the quality of competition (i.e., specific matchups), and I'm sure folks like Tango have been giving it thought as well.

A walk-off HR by Ortiz vs. a AAA callup gets the same WPA (for both players involved) as an "identical" walk-off by, say, Alex Cora vs. B.J. Ryan. That's obviously not right. So you need to calculate the Win Expectancy two ways for every PA -- average hitter vs. this pitcher, and average pitcher vs. this hitter. That allows you to calculate a fair WPA for each guy. They no longer sum to zero, so each team has a pair of buckets (one for offense, one for D) where you put the difference, the buckets thus representing the situationallly adjusted quality of the opposition they faced that day. Which would be very cool -- the value of that buckets at the end of the year, compared to the expected values based on raw hitting and pitching lines, tells you how well the lineup was constructed and how well the bullpen was leveraged.

It's a much-needed next step, and I would expect to see it implemented soon, perhaps for the 2009 season.

But at the same time, the current metric seems to do a good job of telling you who came through in the clutch, regardless of whether they outperformed expectations. For instance, I would assume Matsuzaka's 2-out 2 RBI single would be even more impressive for coming from a pitcher, but as you point out it may say more about lineup construction.

Incidentally, does WPA as a whole underrate the yeoman's work that is putting in league-average innings as a starter (the same argument that says 200 IP of league-average pitching is actually pretty valuable)?

[Eric Van]

Incidentally, does WPA as a whole underrate the yeoman's work that is putting in league-average innings as a starter (the same argument that says 200 IP of league-average pitching is actually pretty valuable)?

WPA for both hitters and pitchers indeed gives no credit for PT * (average value - replacement level value), which can be pretty significant. I have spreadsheets which make the necessary adjustment, which I'll be trotting out later in the fall and winter when I look at CY, MVP, etc.

[bellyofthebeast]

EV,

Thanks so much for this thread. The numbers can't be denied, but there is surely a measure of emotion that they don't address. In my case Drew's salami provoked the biggest scream.

But Lugo's catch of Baker's smash convinced me that the Sox were about to do it again!

[ReggieSmith]

I was thinking before I opened this thread what I felt was the most important play. Unless I missed it, I don't even see it listed here. That would be the slide into home plate by Lowell in game 4 of the WS. Of course, there needed to be other plays being down 1-3 in the championship series to even get to the WS, but that play was huge.

Edited by ReggieSmith, 05 November 2007 - 09:36 PM.

[The Napkin]

EV,

Thanks so much for this thread. The numbers can't be denied, but there is surely a measure of emotion that they don't address. In my case Drew's salami provoked the biggest scream.

But Lugo's catch of Baker's smash convinced me that the Sox were about to do it again!

See, to me it was the Oki DP ball. After that happened that series was over and I think the AL winning the WS was inevitable.

[OilCanShotTupac]

There's an awful lot of Okajima on that list. What a great postseason he had, even with the two dingers he gave up late (when he was burnt to a cinder).

I'm not sure that the Red Sox go all the way in 2007 without Okajima.

[5belongstoGeorge]

What a great way to summarize the post season! Thanks!

It seems as if Big Papi isn't mentioned much. That's interesting, though no fault of his own...

Edit:
The next step is to break it down person by person.... has that been done?

Manny involved with 4 of the top 10, including 3 and 4. What exactly is he worth?

Edited by 5belongstoGeorge, 06 November 2007 - 01:16 AM.

[Eric Van]

I was thinking before I opened this thread what I felt was the most important play. Unless I missed it, I don't even see it listed here. That would be the slide into home plate by Lowell in game 4 of the WS. Of course, there needed to be other plays being down 1-3 in the championship series to even get to the WS, but that play was huge.

You may have noticed that nothing from Game 4 made the list. And that's because winning the WS once you're up 3-0 is pretty much inevitable. No team up 3-0 has ever needed a 6th game, let alone a 7th, let alone lost the Series.

You are right to point to the possibility of Lowell being thrown out at the plate, which is not reflected in the WPA Play Log. If Lowell had been thrown out of the plate, we would still have had a 60.0% chance of winning the game. Scoring raised that to 74.2%, so the play was worth .142, which when multiplied by the game weight of .036 gives .00505, just barely not important enough to include on the list.

However, counting the play at a full .142 is a little bogus. It was a nice slide but a lot of guys execute it, and most guys are faster than Lowell and don't even have to.

[Eric Van]

What a great way to summarize the post season! Thanks!

It seems as if Big Papi isn't mentioned much. That's interesting, though no fault of his own...

Edit:
The next step is to break it down person by person.... has that been done?

Manny involved with 4 of the top 10, including 3 and 4. What exactly is he worth?

Big Hit Summary

Player	No	Tot
Pedroia	7	.071
Ramirez	5	.064
Drew	4	.060
Lowell	4	.047
Ortiz	5	.045
Youkilis	5	.041
Ellsbury	3	.037
Varitek	3	.028
Matsuzaka	1	.012
Lugo	1	.011
Grand Total	38	.417

Coco's shot in ALCS Game 2 that's a HR in every other park would have been about .010 had it stood up as the game-winner.

[Eric Van]

There happens to be a gap in hit values between .085 and .010 which allows us to create the following without being arbitrary:

Super Big Hit Summary

Player	No	Tot
Drew	4	.060
Ramirez	2	.047
Lowell	3	.041
Pedroia	2	.035
Ellsbury	2	.029
Ortiz	2	.023
Youkilis	2	.023
Varitek	2	.023
Matsuzaka	1	.012
Lugo	1	.011
Grand Total	21	.303

Edited by Eric Van, 06 November 2007 - 09:15 AM.

[sibpin]

Since we don't know what the WS odds would have been had we won the game, I excluded the 3 losses. However, I could probably guesstimate based on the change to the Indians' odds. So maybe I'll do a supplemental list of key plays in the games we lost anyway.

The Game Weights using Davenport's system are based on the Monte Carlo simulation and matchup adjustments he made. Since Fangraphs makes the assumption that each team has a 50% chance of winning each independent game, I decided to look at Game Weights based on that assumption. Therefore, going into Game 7 of the World Series, each team has a 50% chance of winning the World Series; going into Game 6, one team has a 75% chance of winning the WS and the other has a 25% chance, etc.

Behold, the possibilities, with the 2007 Red Sox results in pink:



Because of the 50% assumption, the game weight for losses is equal to the absolute value of the numbers displayed there. Had the Sox won game 2 instead of losing it, it would have increased their probability of winning the World Series by 7.8% instead of decreasing it. Note that these results are all based on if the Sox had won instead of lost on that given day, e.g. still going into ALCS3 1-1, not 2-0. For those who can't see the chart, the Game Weights using this matchup-independent system are as follows:

Matchup-Independent Game Weights

Game	Weight
ALDS1	0.047
ALDS2	0.047
ALDS3	0.031
ALCS1	0.078
ALCS2	0.078
ALCS3	0.094
ALCS4	0.094
ALCS5	0.063
ALCS6	0.125
ALCS7	0.250
WS1	0.156
WS2	0.156
WS3	0.125
WS4	0.063

We can see the Davenport adjustments actually aren't too far off from this. The Davenport system rates the ALDS as more important and the remaining games as less important than the 50% system.

So I created a list of Top 50 Sox plays, including the losses in bold, using the matchup-independent system. Note that because of the difference in the Davenport and MI, this system shifts the ranks a bit; Manny's walkoff is ranked 8th here instead of 3rd. There is only one inclusion outside of the losses that was not on the Top 50 of EV's list - Lowell's double in ALCS1.

For Games 1-4 of the ALCS, I copied data from Fangraphs directly, so "Skinner holds Lofton" hypothetical situations are not accounted for. The rest of the data is pulled right from EV's list.

As you might expect, there are a number of results from ALCS2, one from ALCS3, and none from ALCS4.

Important Plays, Matchup-Independent

Rank	WPA	Weight	WCPA	Game	Inn	Play
1	0.22	0.25	5.50%	ALCS7	t7	Okajima gets Blake to hit into 543 DP with runners on corners and 1 out, up 3-2.
2	0.267	0.125	3.34%	ALCS6	b1	Drew hits 2-out GS off of Carmona.
3	0.104	0.25	2.60%	ALCS7	t5	Ramirez "throws out" Lofton at 2B after he leads off with 1B, up 3-1.
4	0.1	0.25	2.50%	ALCS7	b7	Pedroia hits 1-out 2-run HR off of Betancourt to make it 5-2.
5	0.152	0.156	2.38%	WS2	b5	Lowell 2-out 2B off of Jimenez plates Ortiz and moves Ramirez to 3B, making it 2-1.
6	0.088	0.25	2.20%	ALCS7	b1	Ramirez 1-out 1B off of Westbrook drives in Pedroia and moves Youkilis to 2B, making it 1-0.
7	0.234	0.078	1.83%	ALCS2	b5	Ramirez HR off Perez with 1 on, 1 out, making it 5-5.
8	0.383	0.047	1.80%	ALDS2	b9	Ramirez hits 2-out 3-run walkoff HR off of Rodriguez.
9	0.07	0.25	1.75%	ALCS7	t8	Papelbon fans Hafner with 2 on and 0 out, up 3-2.
10	0.109	0.156	1.70%	WS2	b4	Drew 1-out 1B off of Jimenez moves Lowell to 3B.
11	0.133	0.125	1.66%	WS3	t8	Ellsbury 1-out 2B off of Fuentes drives in Lugo and moves Crisp to 3B, making it 7-5.
12	0.062	0.25	1.55%	ALCS7	t7	Skinner holds Lofton at 3B when he could have certainly scored the tying run on Gutierrez's 1B.
13	0.098	0.156	1.53%	WS2	t6	Okajima fans Hawpe with men on 2B and 3B and 2 out, up 2-1.
14	0.093	0.156	1.45%	WS1	b1	Pedroia leads off with HR off of Francis.
15	0.177	0.078	1.38%	ALCS2	b3	Lowell 2-out 1B plates 2, making it 3-1.
16	0.055	0.25	1.38%	ALCS7	b7	Ellsbury leads off against Betancourt and reaches 2B on error by Blake, up 3-2.
17	0.053	0.25	1.33%	ALCS7	b2	Ellsbury 1B off of Westbrook moves Varitek to 3B with 0 out, up 1-0.
18	0.053	0.25	1.33%	ALCS7	b2	Varitek leads off with 2B off of Westbrook, up 1-0.
19	0.104	0.125	1.30%	WS3	t3	Ortiz 2B off of Fogg with runners on corners and 0 out makes it 1-0.
20	0.052	0.25	1.30%	ALCS7	b1	Youkilis 1B off of Westbrook moves Pedroia to 2B with 0 out.
21	0.083	0.156	1.30%	WS1	b2	Ortiz 1-out 2B off of Francis drives in Youkilis from 1B and makes it 4-1.
22	0.051	0.25	1.28%	ALCS7	t8	Papelbon gets Martinez 46 with 2 on and 1 out, up 3-2.
23	0.081	0.156	1.27%	WS1	b1	Drew 2-out 2B off of Francis drives in Ramirez and moves Varitek to 3B, making it 3-0.
24	0.081	0.156	1.27%	WS1	b4	Varitek 2-out bases-loaded ground-rule 2B off of Franics makes it 6-1.
25	0.101	0.125	1.26%	WS3	b6	Lugo robs Baker with leaping catch with 2 on and 2 out, up 6-2.
26	0.099	0.125	1.24%	WS3	t3	Matsuzaka 2-out, bases-loaded 1B off of Francis makes it 5-0.
27	0.077	0.156	1.20%	WS2	t9	Papelbon fans leadoff hitter Helton, up 2-1.
28	0.048	0.25	1.20%	ALCS7	b1	Lowell 1B off of Westbrook loads bases with 1 out, up 1-0.
29	0.047	0.25	1.18%	ALCS7	t8	Papelbon gets Garko to fly to CF with runners on corners and 2 out, up 3-2.
30	0.045	0.25	1.13%	ALCS7	t7	Okajima gets leadoff hitter Peralta to fly to RF, up 3-2.
31	0.045	0.25	1.13%	ALCS7	b4	Lugo 1B off of Westbrook moves Ellsbury to 3B with 1 out, up 3-1.
32	0.142	0.078	1.11%	ALCS2	b5	Lowell goes back-to-back off Perez with 1 out, making it 6-5.
33	0.043	0.25	1.08%	ALCS7	b3	Youkilis leads off with 2B off of Westbrook, up 2-0.
34	0.042	0.25	1.05%	ALCS7	t4	Lugo makes nice play up the middle on Peralta with man on 2nd and 2 out, up 3-1 (1/3 credit).
35	0.082	0.125	1.03%	WS3	t3	Lowell 0-out, bases-loaded 1B off of Fogg plates 2 and makes it 3-0.
36	0.127	0.078	0.99%	ALCS1	t3	Lowell 2B with bases loaded 1 out, making it 4-1.
37	0.038	0.25	0.95%	ALCS7	t6	Okajima gets leadoff hitter Hafner to fly to LF, up 3-2.
38	0.06	0.156	0.94%	WS2	t8	Papelbon picks off Holliday to end inning, up 2-1.
39	0.12	0.078	0.94%	ALCS2	t9	Papelbon gets Garko to ground into fielder's choice to strand 2 runners, tied 6-6.
40	0.036	0.25	0.90%	ALCS7	t4	Matsuzaka gets Peralta 63 with man on 2B and 2 out, up 3-1.
41	0.057	0.156	0.89%	WS2	t8	Okajima fans leadoff hitter Taveras, up 2-1.
42	0.057	0.156	0.89%	WS2	t9	Papelbon gets Atkins to fly to CF for 2nd out, up 2-1.
43	0.071	0.125	0.89%	WS3	b7	Okajima fans Atkins with man on 1B and 0 out, up 6-5.
44	0.07	0.125	0.88%	WS3	t3	Pedroia bunt 1B off of Fogg puts runners on corners with 0 out, tied 0-0.
45	0.092	0.094	0.86%	ALCS3	t7	Varitek HR off Westbrook, making it down 4-2.
46	0.109	0.078	0.85%	ALCS2	b3	Ramirez walks with bases loaded and 2 out, making it 1-1.
47	0.034	0.25	0.85%	ALCS7	t4	Matsuzaka gets Martinez on comebacker with man on 2B and 1 out, up 3-0.
48	0.034	0.25	0.85%	ALCS7	t3	Matsuzaka fans Sizemore with man on 2B and 2 out, up 2-0.
49	0.034	0.25	0.85%	ALCS7	b1	Pedroia leads off with 1B off of Westbrook.
50	0.107	0.078	0.84%	ALCS2	t6	Okajima gets Hafner to line out to strand the bases loaded, tied 6-6.

[Chainsaw318]

But at the same time, the current metric seems to do a good job of telling you who came through in the clutch, regardless of whether they outperformed expectations. For instance, I would assume Matsuzaka's 2-out 2 RBI single would be even more impressive for coming from a pitcher, but as you point out it may say more about lineup construction.

In truth, I was thinking about this play as well, as Matsuzaka turning the lineup over with men on base has to be looked on in relation to the expected pitcher outcome for that situation. In short, there's a good reason that they walk the #8 hitter in the NL to get to the pitcher's spot. In overall WPA, it wasn't the most key situation, but vs. the expected, it's got to be up there.

[sibpin]

Decided to take a look at 2004 using the matchup-independent system (partly because I believe it's a more sound form of evaluating, but also partly because I could not find Davenport's WS game weights) of World Championship Probability Added:



Here are the game weights, determined by how much winning the game would have improved the probability of winning the World Series:

2004 Matchup-Independent Game Weights

Game	Weight
ALDS1	0.047
ALDS2	0.047
ALDS3	0.031
ALCS1	0.078
ALCS2	0.078
ALCS3	0.063
ALCS4	0.031
ALCS5	0.063
ALCS6	0.125
ALCS7	0.250
WS1	0.156
WS2	0.156
WS3	0.125
WS4	0.063

As we can see here, Game 4 of the ALCS has the least weight (same as ALDS3) because winning Game 4 only increased the probability of the Sox winning the World Series (based on coin flips alone) from 3.1% to 6.2%. This leads to an interesting finding... The Steal, the pivotal moment of the series, ranks as the 163rd most important play towards winning the World Series. It ranks below many non-exciting plays from other games - using this system, a play in Game 4 would have to have 8 times the WPA value as a play in Game 7. The other events in that inning - Millar walking in the first place (114th) and Mueller knocking in Roberts (47th) rank much more highly. Of course, if the Sox lose Game 4, it's hard to talk about the most important plays towards winning the World Series, since they wouldn't have even made it there.

Luckily, Game 4 of the ALCS was so close that a number of plays from that game do make it into the Top 50 and in other relatively high positions. Bernie Williams's bases loaded fly-out off Curtis Leskanic ranked 79th with a 0.56% WCPA.

The data source for the WPA is from Fangraphs, and I did not make any modifications based on hypotheticals. So the Slap, which ranks 49th here, is considered "Jeter stays at first, an out is made" (basically same as a strikeout) and does not include "instead of Jeter scoring and A-Rod moving to second." The Bellhorn home run is also considered "a home run" and not "a home run instead of a double." I also did not highlight any specific fielding plays other than what was listed in Fangraphs... more the product of a bad memory than anything else.

Here it is, the most important plays by the Red Sox in the 2004 postseason (plays that came in losses are in red):

2004 Important Plays, Matchup-Independent

Rank	WPA	Weight	WCPA	Game	Inn	Play
1	0.315	0.156	4.92%	WS1	b8	Bellhorn 2-run HR off Tavarez into the foul pole.
2	0.173	0.250	4.33%	ALCS7	t1	Ortiz 2-run HR off Brown.
3	0.152	0.250	3.80%	ALCS7	t2	Damon GS off Vazquez.
4	0.193	0.156	3.02%	WS1	b7	Ramirez RBI 1B off Calero.
5	0.240	0.125	3.00%	ALCS6	t4	Bellhorn disputed 3-run HR off Lieber.
6	0.175	0.156	2.73%	WS2	b1	Varitek 2-run 3B off Morris.
7	0.173	0.156	2.70%	WS1	b1	Ortiz 3-run HR off W. Williams.
8	0.156	0.156	2.44%	WS2	b4	Bellhorn 2-run 2B off Morris.
9	0.383	0.063	2.39%	ALCS5	b14	Ortiz walkoff single off Loaiza scores Damon.
10	0.189	0.125	2.36%	WS3	b3	Martinez gets Walker to ground out and Ortiz picks off Suppan.
11	0.144	0.156	2.25%	WS1	t8	Foulke strikes out Edmonds.
12	0.144	0.156	2.25%	WS1	t8	Foulke gets Rolen to fly out.
13	0.154	0.125	1.93%	WS3	b1	Martinez gets Edmonds to fly out, Ramirez throws out Edmonds.
14	0.091	0.156	1.42%	WS2	t2	Mueller turns unassisted DP on Matheny.
15	0.226	0.063	1.41%	ALCS5	b8	Nixon singles off Gordon, Roberts to third.
16	0.431	0.031	1.35%	ALDS3	b10	Ortiz 2-run walkoff series-ending HR off Washburn.
17	0.104	0.125	1.30%	ALCS6	t4	Varitek RBI single off Lieber.
18	0.102	0.125	1.28%	WS3	t4	Nixon RBI single off Suppan.
19	0.100	0.125	1.25%	WS3	t1	Ramirez solo HR off Suppan.
20	0.098	0.125	1.23%	ALCS6	b9	Foulke strikes out Clark.
21	0.156	0.078	1.22%	ALCS1	t8	Ortiz 2-run 3B off Gordon.
22	0.245	0.047	1.15%	ALDS2	t6	Varitek 2-run HR off Colon.
23	0.044	0.250	1.10%	ALCS7	t2	Cabrera loads the bases with a walk.
24	0.043	0.250	1.08%	ALCS7	t4	Damon second HR off Vazquez.
25	0.166	0.063	1.04%	WS4	t3	Nixon 2-run bases loaded double off Marquis.
26	0.066	0.156	1.03%	WS2	b6	Cabrera 2-run single off Eldred.
27	0.082	0.125	1.03%	ALCS6	b9	Foulke strikes out B. Williams.
28	0.062	0.156	0.97%	WS2	t4	Schilling strikes out Edmonds.
29	0.153	0.063	0.96%	ALCS5	t9	Foulke gets Cairo to fly out.
30	0.153	0.063	0.96%	ALCS5	t13	Wakefield strikes out Sierra.
31	0.061	0.156	0.95%	WS1	t9	Foulke gets Molina to fly out.
32	0.118	0.078	0.92%	ALCS2	t8	Varitek 2B off Gordon moves Nixon to third.
33	0.147	0.063	0.92%	ALCS3	b2	Nixon 2-run HR off Brown.
34	0.144	0.063	0.90%	ALCS5	b8	Ortiz solo HR off Gordon.
35	0.057	0.156	0.89%	WS1	t4	Arroyo gets Pujols to ground to short, stranding a runner at third.
36	0.057	0.156	0.89%	WS1	t3	Wakefield gets Rolen to hit into a DP.
37	0.057	0.156	0.89%	WS1	b1	Damon leadoff 2B off W. Williams.
38	0.057	0.156	0.89%	WS1	b7	Ortiz RBI 1B off King.
39	0.035	0.250	0.88%	ALCS7	t1	Damon leadoff 1B off Brown.
40	0.056	0.156	0.88%	WS1	b3	Damon RBI bases-loaded single off Williams.
41	0.279	0.031	0.87%	ALCS4	b12	Ortiz 2-run walkoff HR.
42	0.055	0.156	0.86%	WS1	b7	Bellhorn walks on Calero.
43	0.067	0.125	0.84%	ALCS6	b9	Foulke gets Posada to fly out.
44	0.053	0.156	0.83%	WS2	t5	Schilling induces DP from Renteria.
45	0.052	0.156	0.81%	WS1	t6	Arroyo strikes out Pujols.
46	0.052	0.156	0.81%	WS1	b1	Mueller RBI 1B off W. Williams.
47	0.258	0.031	0.81%	ALCS4	b9	Mueller 1B through Rivera's legs knocks in Roberts.
48	0.244	0.031	0.76%	ALCS4	b5	Ortiz 2-run bases loaded 1B off Hernandez
49	0.060	0.125	0.75%	ALCS6	b8	Arroyo tags out Rodriguez, who slaps the ball away; Jeter stays at first.
50	0.060	0.125	0.75%	ALCS6	t2	Cabrera loads bases with 1B off Lieber.
114	0.136	0.031	0.43%	ALCS4	b9	Millar walked.
163	0.108	0.031	0.34%	ALCS4	b9	Roberts steals second off Rivera.

Edited by sibpin, 04 December 2007 - 07:00 PM.

[Eric Van]

Decided to take a look at 2004 using the matchup-independent system (partly because I believe it's a more sound form of evaluating, but also partly because I could not find Davenport's WS game weights) of World Championship Probability Added:

Great work.

Mark Bellhorn with the biggest hit of the post-season and three of the top 8. And he was the position-player regular-season team MVP, too. And we booed this guy out of town within a year.

[WoburnDiaspora]

Great work.

Mark Bellhorn with the biggest hit of the post-season and three of the top 8. And he was the position-player regular-season team MVP, too. And we booed this guy out of town within a year.

and then he proceeded to bounce around baseball. He played last season with the Reds and hit .071 So him moving out of town was not completely unjustified.

Edited by WoburnDiaspora, 04 December 2007 - 07:13 PM.