[Hairps]

Assume a minimum of $30M/year. Just because that's what Boras says. And Scott Boras is better than you.

[Hairps]

9/$270-299M.

Putting aside the fact that he's the best player in baseball and one of the best of all-time, he should surpass Bonds easily during the course of that deal. Sadaharu Oh's world HR record stands at 868. Averaging 40 HR/year, Rodriguez should be chasing it early in season 9. Season 10, if you assume 35 HR/year.

I'd say the media attention surrounding that, both in America and Japan, would be strong...to quite strong.

[LondonSox]

You know Boras is thinking 300milion/10 years but do I give him an opt out clause every year or just every other

I'm 9 years 270 for what it's worth, and he won't sign without opting out for anything less.

[Hairps]

Quote

Under [ 1 ][5.56%]
6/$180-209M [ 4 ] [22.22%]
7/$210-239M [ 2 ] [11.11%]
8/$240-269M [ 4 ] [22.22%]
9/$270-299M [ 2 ] [11.11%]
10/$300M [ 4 ] [22.22%]
Over [ 1 ] [5.56%]

Paging DamonasaNomad...

[snowmanny]

LondonSox, on Oct 23 2007, 03:11 PM, said:

You know Boras is thinking 300milion/10 years but do I give him an opt out clause every year or just every other

I'm 9 years 270 for what it's worth, and he won't sign without opting out for anything less.

I voted that too, then saw you and Hairps go the same way. My thinking was that a seven year contract is reasonable, so eight can be justified, so Boras squeezes an extra year out of someone.

[DamonasaNomad]

Hairps, on Oct 23 2007, 03:34 PM, said:

Paging DamonasaNomad...

Heh. Thanks, Hairps. Sadly, it's changed. . .

FWIW, I went for 6/$180-209M. No strong feelings, tho'.

[Hairps]

Call me James Surowiecki.

JC Bradbury's Sabernomics blog is currently running a contest, where readers guess the value of A-Rod's next contract. I dicked around with all of the submissions as of yesterday afternoon (n=349) and decided to plot them as follows:



OK, so I'm not really into making cool charts, but you should get the idea. The "crowd" seems to foresee an 8YR/$261M deal (AAV = $32.6M). Pretty interesting to see how constant the AAV (green, secondary axis) of any deal stays pretty constant throughout, hovering around the $30M AAV marker Boras laid down at the onset. For those of you into this kind of thing, I took a quick look in the following table:

YEARS	   GUESSES		AAV	AVG TOTAL   STDEV:AAV
		1		  1		33		  33		   0
		3		  3	  34.7	   104.1		 2.1
		4		  3	  36.3	   145.2		 1.5
		5		  9	  32.6		 163		 5.9
		6		 22	  33.6	   201.6		 6.7
		7		 62	  31.5	   220.5		 4.4
		8		113	  32.6	   260.8		 3.5
		9		 44	  32.6	   293.4		 4.4
	   10		 60	  31.4		 314		 3.4
	   11		 15	  33.8	   371.8		 3.4
	   12		 14	  32.3	   387.6		 2.6
	   13		  2	  34.2	   444.6		   6
	   15		  1	  36.7	   550.5		   0

Looking at that, you might notice that nobody guessed a contract of two or fourteen years. Including those facts, however, would have tested my chart-making skillz, so I just put in fake 2YR/$30M AAV & 14YR/$30M AAV guesses so it would still look pretty. Oh well.

Also, FWIW, I posted the data set at the following link, in case anyone wants to lube up and play around with it:

Sabernomics' A-Rod Next Contract Guesses Data

EDIT: As someone commented on another site, the fact that the AAVs are all so near $30M could just mean there's very little "wisdom" going on here and that, instead, people are simply parroting Boras' party line and multiplying it by the years they think the contract will cover.

This post has been edited by Hairps: 27 October 2007 - 07:32 AM

[snowmanny]

I see they let Scott Boras make a prediction.

[Tito's Pullover]

So what you did there is averaged the guessed AAV for each year value, correct?

Seeing as there isn't much difference in AAVs until you get to the 13+ year outliers, you could have probably just expressed it as one average. But your funkified graph does demonstrate that the AAVs are randomly scattered, proving that these non-experts have a shaky grasp of baseball economics.

Gotta love that 15 year, $550,500,000 offer. Only five MLB teams - TEAMS - are worth more than that.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

A-Rod is NOT going to get $30M a year....




Althought $29M a year is not out of the question.

I think it has to do with the psychological barrier of $30M.

7/$200M.

I'm channeling Ken Rosenthal.

This post has been edited by wade boggs chicken dinner: 27 October 2007 - 10:39 AM

[SoxFanPJ]

Quote

league sources indicate the team is prepared to make him an offer that will exceed, in average salary, the $27 million per year that he is scheduled to make over the next three seasons -- and A-Rod would be in line to set yet another salary benchmark.

If the Yankees' extension offer is for something in the range of $150 million, over five years, then Rodriguez would be owed about $230 million over the next eight seasons.

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=3082251

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

SoxFanPJ, on Oct 27 2007, 02:05 PM, said:

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=3082251

I'm pretty sure Boras would take about five seconds to turn down that offer.

[snowmanny]

Well here is a question. Has Scott Boras or Alex Rodriguez EVER said that they were interested in a contract extension? It is certainly Boras' M.O. to always go to free agency, and to opt out when possible. Is there any reason to believe that Boras is doing anything other than considering whether or not to opt out?

And another (related) question. Is there any reason to take seriously the Yankees posture of not negotiating if ARod does opt out? I can see that their offer might be a little bit less without the Rangers subsidy, but why on earth would they make no offer at all? Because their feelings were hurt??

[LondonSox]

snowmanny, on Oct 27 2007, 08:35 PM, said:

Well here is a question. Has Scott Boras or Alex Rodriguez EVER said that they were interested in a contract extension? It is certainly Boras' M.O. to always go to free agency, and to opt out when possible. Is there any reason to believe that Boras is doing anything other than considering whether or not to opt out?

And another (related) question. Is there any reason to take seriously the Yankees posture of not negotiating if ARod does opt out? I can see that their offer might be a little bit less without the Rangers subsidy, but why on earth would they make no offer at all? Because their feelings were hurt??

It's bullshit, anyone believes that is crazy. So he walks and the Sox or the Angels have a reasonable, but not silly bid in for A-Rod the Yanks are not going to bid what they were willing to pay before he opted out to show they're tough? Insanity. The Yanks can match or beat any offer and even if they didn't want him back it's in the Yanks interest to drive up the price! If Cashman really doesn't bid if A-Rod opts out he should be fired. If he goes for 30/year for like 8 or 9 years then it's fair to let him go probably, it's a decision. But if it's less and they don't drive up the price, they're stupid. Which of course means making threats when you don't have anything to back it up is pretty damn stupid too

[stephensjh]

snowmanny, on Oct 27 2007, 03:35 PM, said:

And another (related) question. Is there any reason to take seriously the Yankees posture of not negotiating if ARod does opt out? I can see that their offer might be a little bit less without the Rangers subsidy, but why on earth would they make no offer at all? Because their feelings were hurt??

Most board posters strongly feel Cashman is bluffing. The only logical(?) business strategy for Cashman's " threat " is to somehow get Boras to believe it. Under that highly improbable scenario, Boras would perhaps be more likely to negotiate exclusively w/ NY and not risk a smaller contract as a free agent absent the Yankees to maximize the bidding.

[OCD SS]

Right now I think the biggest issue is how much in the way of discussions Boras has actually had with other teams.

Yes, to do so would technically be against the rules, but let's not pretend it doesn't go on all the time; I would be shocked if Boras didn't already have an idea of what A-Rod might be looking for in FA.

The question then becomes whether or not the Yankees have an idea of what the other teams are prepared to offer, and if they have tweaked their offer accordingly...

[snowmanny]

stephensjh, on Oct 27 2007, 04:52 PM, said:

Most board posters strongly feel Cashman is bluffing. The only logical(?) business strategy for Cashman's " threat " is to somehow get Boras to believe it. Under that highly improbable scenario, Boras would perhaps be more likely to negotiate exclusively w/ NY and not risk a smaller contract as a free agent absent the Yankees to maximize the bidding.

Yes. What Cashman is doing is this: He is trying to convince Boras that the Yankees are going to make an offer that would be a gross overpayment because if ARod goes to free agency he will find that there is no offer that comes reasonably close to the Yankees offer. AND that the Yankees would not make an offer at that point. In other words, Cashman has to convince Boras that the Yankees are willing to throw money around unnecessarily but will then cut off their nose to spite their face.....

I also agree with OCD SS re: Boras and other teams. There are plenty of conversations that can take place..."So Omar, is the day of the $30million dollar player coming?" "Oh sure Scott, but it would have to be the right guy," and there could be more direct conversations as well.
You'll recall the Red Sox didn't trust the posting process on Matsuzaka and faxed their bid at the last possible second. And the shock at JD Drew opting out, when the deal he signed was for more than TWICE the money he was previously guaranteed.

I could definitely see a team like the Dodgers thinking that ARod is the guy they need to jack their revenue up in the stratosphere of the Yankees and Red Sox, and willing to pay basically whatever it takes to land him.

[OCD SS]

Interesting that the Post and Daily News both have the scoop that the Yankees will not go to $30M/yr. The rumored offer is going to be $140M/5 years, tacked onto the last 3 years of his current deal.

I figured that $150M/5 yrs was a kind of baseline offer. Cashman bringing wanting A-Rod there, sitting across from him, as he presents his agent with a low-ball (at least in these surreal circumstances) offer smacks of a pretty aggressive negotiating stance from the Yankee FO.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

snowmanny, on Oct 27 2007, 03:35 PM, said:

Well here is a question. Has Scott Boras or Alex Rodriguez EVER said that they were interested in a contract extension? It is certainly Boras' M.O. to always go to free agency, and to opt out when possible. Is there any reason to believe that Boras is doing anything other than considering whether or not to opt out?

It's possible that A-Rod really does want to stay in NY, and Boras is trying to get the max guaranteed $ out of the MFYs, but it would seem weird to me that A-Rod would be locked into the MFYs after everything he's gone through.

snowmanny, on Oct 27 2007, 03:35 PM, said:

And another (related) question. Is there any reason to take seriously the Yankees posture of not negotiating if ARod does opt out? I can see that their offer might be a little bit less without the Rangers subsidy, but why on earth would they make no offer at all? Because their feelings were hurt??

Here's my take on this. Cashman had to say they weren't negotiating because without such a statement, Boras definitely opts-out and Cashman has got to try to save the TX money. Also, Cashman has given the MFYs an out if A-Rod opts out ("It's not my decision"). However, I will be interested to see what happens to Cashman in particular if A-Rod opts out and the MFYs DO end up bidding on him. Seems that Cashman just lost some leverage in future negotiations - even if Cashman tries to explain why the MFYs did what they did, I would think that agents are going to take any bottom-line offers a lot less seriously in the future.

Then again, Cashman may just be thinking that he can sign at least a couple of really good players for $30M a year.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Quote

I figured that $150M/5 yrs was a kind of baseline offer. Cashman bringing wanting A-Rod there, sitting across from him, as he presents his agent with a low-ball (at least in these surreal circumstances) offer smacks of a pretty aggressive negotiating stance from the Yankee FO.

Such an offer would give A-Rod an average annual salary of 50% more than any other player in the league, and would ensure that he's under contract for the next 8 years. I'm not sure that's a lowball offer.