40 replies to this topic

[Hairps]

Assume a minimum of $30M/year. Just because that's what Boras says. And Scott Boras is better than you.

[Hairps]

9/$270-299M.

Putting aside the fact that he's the best player in baseball and one of the best of all-time, he should surpass Bonds easily during the course of that deal. Sadaharu Oh's world HR record stands at 868. Averaging 40 HR/year, Rodriguez should be chasing it early in season 9. Season 10, if you assume 35 HR/year.

I'd say the media attention surrounding that, both in America and Japan, would be strong...to quite strong.

[LondonSox]

You know Boras is thinking 300milion/10 years but do I give him an opt out clause every year or just every other

I'm 9 years 270 for what it's worth, and he won't sign without opting out for anything less.

[Hairps]

Under [ 1 ][5.56%]
6/$180-209M [ 4 ] [22.22%]
7/$210-239M [ 2 ] [11.11%]
8/$240-269M [ 4 ] [22.22%]
9/$270-299M [ 2 ] [11.11%]
10/$300M [ 4 ] [22.22%]
Over [ 1 ] [5.56%]

Paging DamonasaNomad...

[snowmanny]

You know Boras is thinking 300milion/10 years but do I give him an opt out clause every year or just every other

I'm 9 years 270 for what it's worth, and he won't sign without opting out for anything less.

I voted that too, then saw you and Hairps go the same way. My thinking was that a seven year contract is reasonable, so eight can be justified, so Boras squeezes an extra year out of someone.

[DamonasaNomad]

Paging DamonasaNomad...

Heh. Thanks, Hairps. Sadly, it's changed. . .

FWIW, I went for 6/$180-209M. No strong feelings, tho'.

[Hairps]

Call me James Surowiecki.

JC Bradbury's Sabernomics blog is currently running a contest, where readers guess the value of A-Rod's next contract. I dicked around with all of the submissions as of yesterday afternoon (n=349) and decided to plot them as follows:



OK, so I'm not really into making cool charts, but you should get the idea. The "crowd" seems to foresee an 8YR/$261M deal (AAV = $32.6M). Pretty interesting to see how constant the AAV (green, secondary axis) of any deal stays pretty constant throughout, hovering around the $30M AAV marker Boras laid down at the onset. For those of you into this kind of thing, I took a quick look in the following table:

YEARS	   GUESSES		AAV	AVG TOTAL   STDEV:AAV
		1		  1		33		  33		   0
		3		  3	  34.7	   104.1		 2.1
		4		  3	  36.3	   145.2		 1.5
		5		  9	  32.6		 163		 5.9
		6		 22	  33.6	   201.6		 6.7
		7		 62	  31.5	   220.5		 4.4
		8		113	  32.6	   260.8		 3.5
		9		 44	  32.6	   293.4		 4.4
	   10		 60	  31.4		 314		 3.4
	   11		 15	  33.8	   371.8		 3.4
	   12		 14	  32.3	   387.6		 2.6
	   13		  2	  34.2	   444.6		   6
	   15		  1	  36.7	   550.5		   0

Looking at that, you might notice that nobody guessed a contract of two or fourteen years. Including those facts, however, would have tested my chart-making skillz, so I just put in fake 2YR/$30M AAV & 14YR/$30M AAV guesses so it would still look pretty. Oh well.

Also, FWIW, I posted the data set at the following link, in case anyone wants to lube up and play around with it:

Sabernomics' A-Rod Next Contract Guesses Data

EDIT: As someone commented on another site, the fact that the AAVs are all so near $30M could just mean there's very little "wisdom" going on here and that, instead, people are simply parroting Boras' party line and multiplying it by the years they think the contract will cover.

Edited by Hairps, 27 October 2007 - 07:32 AM.

[snowmanny]

I see they let Scott Boras make a prediction.

[Tito's Pullover]

So what you did there is averaged the guessed AAV for each year value, correct?

Seeing as there isn't much difference in AAVs until you get to the 13+ year outliers, you could have probably just expressed it as one average. But your funkified graph does demonstrate that the AAVs are randomly scattered, proving that these non-experts have a shaky grasp of baseball economics.

Gotta love that 15 year, $550,500,000 offer. Only five MLB teams - TEAMS - are worth more than that.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

A-Rod is NOT going to get $30M a year....




Althought $29M a year is not out of the question.

I think it has to do with the psychological barrier of $30M.

7/$200M.

I'm channeling Ken Rosenthal.

Edited by wade boggs chicken dinner, 27 October 2007 - 10:39 AM.

[SoxFanPJ]

league sources indicate the team is prepared to make him an offer that will exceed, in average salary, the $27 million per year that he is scheduled to make over the next three seasons -- and A-Rod would be in line to set yet another salary benchmark.

If the Yankees' extension offer is for something in the range of $150 million, over five years, then Rodriguez would be owed about $230 million over the next eight seasons.

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=3082251

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=3082251

I'm pretty sure Boras would take about five seconds to turn down that offer.

[snowmanny]

Well here is a question. Has Scott Boras or Alex Rodriguez EVER said that they were interested in a contract extension? It is certainly Boras' M.O. to always go to free agency, and to opt out when possible. Is there any reason to believe that Boras is doing anything other than considering whether or not to opt out?

And another (related) question. Is there any reason to take seriously the Yankees posture of not negotiating if ARod does opt out? I can see that their offer might be a little bit less without the Rangers subsidy, but why on earth would they make no offer at all? Because their feelings were hurt??

[LondonSox]

Well here is a question. Has Scott Boras or Alex Rodriguez EVER said that they were interested in a contract extension? It is certainly Boras' M.O. to always go to free agency, and to opt out when possible. Is there any reason to believe that Boras is doing anything other than considering whether or not to opt out?

And another (related) question. Is there any reason to take seriously the Yankees posture of not negotiating if ARod does opt out? I can see that their offer might be a little bit less without the Rangers subsidy, but why on earth would they make no offer at all? Because their feelings were hurt??

It's bullshit, anyone believes that is crazy. So he walks and the Sox or the Angels have a reasonable, but not silly bid in for A-Rod the Yanks are not going to bid what they were willing to pay before he opted out to show they're tough? Insanity. The Yanks can match or beat any offer and even if they didn't want him back it's in the Yanks interest to drive up the price! If Cashman really doesn't bid if A-Rod opts out he should be fired. If he goes for 30/year for like 8 or 9 years then it's fair to let him go probably, it's a decision. But if it's less and they don't drive up the price, they're stupid. Which of course means making threats when you don't have anything to back it up is pretty damn stupid too

[stephensjh]

And another (related) question. Is there any reason to take seriously the Yankees posture of not negotiating if ARod does opt out? I can see that their offer might be a little bit less without the Rangers subsidy, but why on earth would they make no offer at all? Because their feelings were hurt??

Most board posters strongly feel Cashman is bluffing. The only logical(?) business strategy for Cashman's " threat " is to somehow get Boras to believe it. Under that highly improbable scenario, Boras would perhaps be more likely to negotiate exclusively w/ NY and not risk a smaller contract as a free agent absent the Yankees to maximize the bidding.

[OCD SS]

Right now I think the biggest issue is how much in the way of discussions Boras has actually had with other teams.

Yes, to do so would technically be against the rules, but let's not pretend it doesn't go on all the time; I would be shocked if Boras didn't already have an idea of what A-Rod might be looking for in FA.

The question then becomes whether or not the Yankees have an idea of what the other teams are prepared to offer, and if they have tweaked their offer accordingly...

[snowmanny]

Most board posters strongly feel Cashman is bluffing. The only logical(?) business strategy for Cashman's " threat " is to somehow get Boras to believe it. Under that highly improbable scenario, Boras would perhaps be more likely to negotiate exclusively w/ NY and not risk a smaller contract as a free agent absent the Yankees to maximize the bidding.

Yes. What Cashman is doing is this: He is trying to convince Boras that the Yankees are going to make an offer that would be a gross overpayment because if ARod goes to free agency he will find that there is no offer that comes reasonably close to the Yankees offer. AND that the Yankees would not make an offer at that point. In other words, Cashman has to convince Boras that the Yankees are willing to throw money around unnecessarily but will then cut off their nose to spite their face.....

I also agree with OCD SS re: Boras and other teams. There are plenty of conversations that can take place..."So Omar, is the day of the $30million dollar player coming?" "Oh sure Scott, but it would have to be the right guy," and there could be more direct conversations as well.
You'll recall the Red Sox didn't trust the posting process on Matsuzaka and faxed their bid at the last possible second. And the shock at JD Drew opting out, when the deal he signed was for more than TWICE the money he was previously guaranteed.

I could definitely see a team like the Dodgers thinking that ARod is the guy they need to jack their revenue up in the stratosphere of the Yankees and Red Sox, and willing to pay basically whatever it takes to land him.

[OCD SS]

Interesting that the Post and Daily News both have the scoop that the Yankees will not go to $30M/yr. The rumored offer is going to be $140M/5 years, tacked onto the last 3 years of his current deal.

I figured that $150M/5 yrs was a kind of baseline offer. Cashman bringing wanting A-Rod there, sitting across from him, as he presents his agent with a low-ball (at least in these surreal circumstances) offer smacks of a pretty aggressive negotiating stance from the Yankee FO.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Well here is a question. Has Scott Boras or Alex Rodriguez EVER said that they were interested in a contract extension? It is certainly Boras' M.O. to always go to free agency, and to opt out when possible. Is there any reason to believe that Boras is doing anything other than considering whether or not to opt out?

It's possible that A-Rod really does want to stay in NY, and Boras is trying to get the max guaranteed $ out of the MFYs, but it would seem weird to me that A-Rod would be locked into the MFYs after everything he's gone through.

And another (related) question. Is there any reason to take seriously the Yankees posture of not negotiating if ARod does opt out? I can see that their offer might be a little bit less without the Rangers subsidy, but why on earth would they make no offer at all? Because their feelings were hurt??

Here's my take on this. Cashman had to say they weren't negotiating because without such a statement, Boras definitely opts-out and Cashman has got to try to save the TX money. Also, Cashman has given the MFYs an out if A-Rod opts out ("It's not my decision"). However, I will be interested to see what happens to Cashman in particular if A-Rod opts out and the MFYs DO end up bidding on him. Seems that Cashman just lost some leverage in future negotiations - even if Cashman tries to explain why the MFYs did what they did, I would think that agents are going to take any bottom-line offers a lot less seriously in the future.

Then again, Cashman may just be thinking that he can sign at least a couple of really good players for $30M a year.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I figured that $150M/5 yrs was a kind of baseline offer. Cashman bringing wanting A-Rod there, sitting across from him, as he presents his agent with a low-ball (at least in these surreal circumstances) offer smacks of a pretty aggressive negotiating stance from the Yankee FO.

Such an offer would give A-Rod an average annual salary of 50% more than any other player in the league, and would ensure that he's under contract for the next 8 years. I'm not sure that's a lowball offer.

[Rough Carrigan]

I could definitely see a team like the Dodgers thinking that ARod is the guy they need to jack their revenue up in the stratosphere of the Yankees and Red Sox, and willing to pay basically whatever it takes to land him.

This is a bit of a tangent, but what is the Dodgers' revenue? Their payroll this year was roughly 2/3 of the Red Sox payroll. Something like $99 million to $143 million. That's absurd. The Los Angeles freaking Dodgers who own their own park, their own huge parking lots, and are the biggest team in SoCal, they can't compete economically with the Red Sox? Not closer than those proportions? Really?

The same thing goes for the Cubs. Like the Dodgers, they had a payroll of about 2/3 the Red Sox payroll this last year. The Cubs. They own their own park, have their own network, they cheat outrageously on their fucking ticket sales by transferring batches of 'em to a Chicago equivalent of Ace Tickets that they OWN, and are one of the top 5 name teams in baseball. They can't compete economically with the Red Sox? They're defenseless and helpless against the economic might of the Red Sox? Really?

IMO, there are a few teams in MLB that are out and out frauds. The Dodgers had a bigger payroll 6 years ago than they did this year. But, hey! It's the nationAAAAl league, put together a moderately good team and go to the playoffs!

[Rudy Pemberton]

The Dodgers payroll was higher back then, but it was different ownership. I don't know that much about the Dodgers financial situation, but McCourt likely has more debt than the old group? They gut burned on some deals in the past, Dreifort is the first to come to mind...but even this year, they made a big splash for Schmidt and Furcal and even Nomar and Wold, and didn't get much for that money. Had those guys played close to career norms, they win 90 games. I think their biggest problem has been making lousy signings; a higher payroll probably doesn't help if Colletti continues to make so many bad decisions.

How high would the Sox payroll be if they didn't have the Yankees in their division? Impossible to answer but I think it's a factor.

[billy ashley]

One thing we need to talk about (though I doubt any of us, myself included are smart enough) is what we expect contracts to looks like over the next 8 years.


I know I've said this before but:


Kris Benson's contract a couple of years ago looked crazy, now if he were healthy this past season it would have been market average.

5 years ago the contract we gave Julio Lugo this past off season would have looked insane (and don't you snicker!!! It looked like a market deal when he signed it before showing up to camp looking like Oliver freaken Twist)

The Carlos Lee deal looked awful last season and it still looks bad but with A-Rod getting maybe 30 million a year, what ever Lowell is going to get and Andruw Jones also wanting a deal with a AAS around 20 million it is begining to look like the norm.


My point is that while 10 years 300 million dollars sounds insane now we may see salaries in general tend upwards thus lowering the amount the contract is actually worth relative to the league over the course of the contract.

[Doctor G]

Is ARod obliged as the lead member of team Boras to opt-out and in doing this increase the ceiling for all of Boras' other players. He certainly owes Boras a lot more than he owes the Yankees who have actually paid him less than Jeter or Giambi since he has been in NY. He has been a relative bargain for the Yankees up till now, and I am sure Boras has mentioned this to Cashman. If the Yankees offer him less than 30M as an average per year for this extension, Boras will be in the same position as Torre was. He will have no choice but to advise ARod to opt-out. Whether Alex takes this advise or not is the Million dollar question. Does ARod feel more allegiance to team Boras or to team Steinbrenner?

[OCD SS]

Such an offer would give A-Rod an average annual salary of 50% more than any other player in the league, and would ensure that he's under contract for the next 8 years. I'm not sure that's a lowball offer.

keep in mind the phrase "these particular surreal circmstances." It's a mindboggling amount of money when compared with every other baseball salary, but when I said "lowball" I meant in terms of Boras' expectations. Maybe the Yankee FO is giving themselves some wiggle room, but to me this offer seems designed to be a tad bit confrontational. It looks like they're going to try to bring him in to sit across the table from them after an MVP season and tell him that they won't raise his salary beyond what they were willing to give Roger Clemens. It's not the amount of money that's insulting, it's the way they seem to be going about it.

[snowmanny]

The other fact to keep in mind is that Boras is likely to place high importance on the symbolic nature of the contract. ARod's contract with Texas had a 10-year value of 252million, which was NOT COINCIDENTALLY exactly double the previous record for an American sports contract (Kevin Garnett).

I would presume that he is looking for more total dollars (so 8 years 230MM won't cut it)
and some landmark number (30MM average? Something bigger??).

So, yeah...if you know Boras, he would decline that contract. ARod of course could overrule him.

[SoxFanPJ]

Is ARod obliged as the lead member of team Boras to opt-out and in doing this increase the ceiling for all of Boras' other players. He certainly owes Boras a lot more than he owes the Yankees who have actually paid him less than Jeter or Giambi since he has been in NY. He has been a relative bargain for the Yankees up till now, and I am sure Boras has mentioned this to Cashman. If the Yankees offer him less than 30M as an average per year for this extension, Boras will be in the same position as Torre was. He will have no choice but to advise ARod to opt-out. Whether Alex takes this advise or not is the Million dollar question. Does ARod feel more allegiance to team Boras or to team Steinbrenner?

Its not even a "team Boras" thing, I am sure if they feel he could get more in the open market the Players Association would pressure A-Rod to opt out, raise the free agent market for all union members, break the $30M threshold, etc.

[Foxy42]

Just Boras blowing smoke:

CNNSI: Jon Heyman has learned that ARod will opt out of his contract with the Yankees

www.cnnsi.com

[Wingack]

Could be.

Oh well, whatever.

[BoSox Rule]

Great timing. 10:14 during Game 4 of the World Series.

[Hairps]

Current Odds:

What team will Alex Rodriguez be playing for on Opening Day '08?

TEAM		   ODDS
Angels		 3   1   
Dodgers		4   1   
Cubs		   9   2 
Tigers		 5   1 
Sox			6   1 
Yankees		6   1 
Mets		   9   1	 
Phillies	   9   1	 
Giants		10   1 
Field		  5   2

Converting those odds to percentages, and summing them up...

166%

I love Vegas.

[MonstahsInLeft]

Converting those odds to percentages, and summing them up...

166%

I love Vegas.

Its kinda like Richard Pryor in Superman III...all the money's in the decimals...

[Hairps]

"Tangotiger" is running a similar vote on his blog.

See below for the most current collective opinion of the sabermetric intelligentsia:

7.4 yrs @ 31.5 = 233MM

EDIT: Added the most recent results from Tango's blog.

Edited by Hairps, 12 November 2007 - 03:57 PM.

[LondonSox]

Current Odds:

TEAM		   ODDS
Angels		 3   1   
Dodgers		4   1   
Cubs		   9   2 
Tigers		 5   1 
Sox			6   1 
Yankees		6   1 
Mets		   9   1	 
Phillies	   9   1	 
Giants		10   1 
Field		  5   2

Converting those odds to percentages, and summing them up...

166%

I love Vegas.

Complete and utter total tangent but this is why gambling is illegal in the US because it's easier to take money from Vegas and screw america into the ground. In the UK gambling is both legal and tax free. Win the lottery. No tax. Nice huh. (As opposed to taxing the lottery operators and the winners)

I have the best site in the world for baseball and baseball gambling but of course if I used or launched it I'd be arrested if I ever go to Fenway. I love the US but it's corrupt and irritating too. (The UK is just crap) I'll go back to my drink now, off the soapbox

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

"Tangotiger" is running a similar vote on his blog.

See below for the most current collective opinion of the sabermetric intelligentsia:

7.5 yrs, 236MM, 31.5MM/yr

Too bad I didn't check here for this thread before I started the one on Bor-Rod's megalomania. This would have been an appropriate landing spot for news of that demand...

It appears from scanning Tangotiger's current results that the consensus has moved upward since the $350,000,000 figure came out. Funny how that works. Boras seems to know how to move the range upward with a wave of his wand. Sneaky bastard.

[gammoseditor]

So John Henry could bet 300 million at 6:1 odds that AROD ends up with the Red Sox, give AROD 10 years at 600 million, and still be up over a billion? Sounds like a plan to me.

[CaptainLaddie]

Somehow I doubt any book will allow you to place a 300M bet...

[SoxFanSince57]

This is my first time seeing a specific quote from the LAAA on A-Rod.

The Angels had a meet-and-greet with A-Rod's agent, Scott Boras, at the general managers' meetings....Tony Reagins, who just took over as the Angels' GM, had glowing words for A-Rod.

"We had an initial conversation with Scott, and it was introductory," he said Wednesday. "He probably makes any team that he's a part of better."

Reagins said if talks progressed, the Angels would welcome a chance to speak with Rodriguez. Reagins acknowledged marketing, as well as baseball skills, would play a role in a decision to sign A-Rod.

"In this day and age, I think that is a part of it," he said.

http://sports.espn.g...o...&id=3099710

[Rough Carrigan]

The other fact to keep in mind is that Boras is likely to place high importance on the symbolic nature of the contract. ARod's contract with Texas had a 10-year value of 252million, which was NOT COINCIDENTALLY exactly double the previous record for an American sports contract (Kevin Garnett).

I would presume that he is looking for more total dollars (so 8 years 230MM won't cut it)
and some landmark number (30MM average? Something bigger??).

So, yeah...if you know Boras, he would decline that contract. ARod of course could overrule him.

So, offer him a stunningly huge contract. A stunningly huge NFL style contract!
Boras can tout his new record setting deal. "Yup, that's right Johnny Hayseed, I'm the agent who got ARod a $300 million contract from the Red Sox. And if you sign with Boras Uber Alles I might get you that sort of contract some day."

Meanwhile, the Sox are actually only on the hook for 6 years at $24 million per year and everything else is reliant upon a vesting option that only occurs if ARod plays every inning of those 6 years or something like that.

[Marbleheader]

One of the factors has to be a potential opt out, which I would assume would be worked in to his next contract as well. An opt out after 5 or so years, when he'd theoretically be close to breaking the all-time home run record has to be pretty close to a given, no? Would an opt out change any perceptions about the number of years they would go?

[Jeekinz]

Using last years numbers at $27m a year, A-Rod would make:

$46, 312 per AB
$72,972 TC (total chances at fielding)
$20, 300 per inning
or
$500, 000 per HR

LOL

Edited by Jeekinz, 16 November 2007 - 10:04 AM.