591 replies to this topic

[Ferm Sheller]

That list is as of 10/17, as of right now the pick is at worst #8.

Pisser, I didn't catch that. Thanks. (Actually, I'm happy they're at #8, but I'm pissed because my 37 years of being a bonehead persists for at least another day.)

[Groovenstein]

I mean we haven't seen the Pats in this position before, so we don't have a great degree of certainty what they'll do with it. Last time we were in anywhere close to this position, the Pats selected Ty Warren at 13.

Seymour was #6 in 2001.

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

That list is as of 10/17, as of right now the pick is at worst #8.

I'd be happy to post the updated list each week. It is #5 right now, based on opponents' records.

Edited by Chemistry Schmemistry, 30 October 2007 - 11:16 PM.

[DavidWellsAteNelson]

Seymour was #6 in 2001.

How could I forget. So yes, there's a history here of using a top pick rather than trading down.

[Carmine Hose]

Picking Seymour at 6 in 2001 doesn't really translate to where they're at now - team, cap, and organizational plan-wise. They sucked and needed players. Now, they need players, but also want to fit them in to their overall cap scheme. For what a top 10 pick can offer this team now, the money doesn't make sense.

[BigSoxFan]

What about Steve Slaton if he comes out? He'd be like Kevin Faulk on steroids.

[Lippa]

What about Steve Slaton if he comes out? He'd be like Kevin Faulk on steroids.

I don't think Slaton is anything but really, really fast. If I were going to take a guy who could play the Kevin Faulk role, it would be Mike Hart, who would be Faulk without the constant fear of an inopportune fumble.

[bsartist618]

Steve Slaton reminds me of LDT.

[DavidWellsAteNelson]

I don't think Slaton is anything but really, really fast. If I were going to take a guy who could play the Kevin Faulk role, it would be Mike Hart, who would be Faulk without the constant fear of an inopportune fumble.

Having just looked over Slaton's stats, the one thing I was impressed by is that he's apparently never fumbled.

stats

Slaton on himself FWIW:

I have great speed and field vision. I'm also really strong. I love playing RB and I've been playing it my whole life. I have the speed, elusiveness and strength. I'd like to run over linemen more and be a more powerful runner.

[gaelgirl]

I don't think the 49ers are ever going to win again. They're just fucking awful, and now even the kicker (who's consistently good) is getting pissed off and flipping off the fans.

Congrats, Patriots.

[ForLoveoftheSox]

Even if the Patriots do get a high draft pick and don't feel like they can get maximum value for it, they can still trade down their pick down to the middle/lower part of the round where the Patriots have thrived and put something away for later to keep the dynasty clicking down the road. That's how the Patriots got this pick in the first place. If you've got a pick in the top 10 you know there's somebody that's going to want to move up.

[Spacemans Bong]

I don't think the 49ers are ever going to win again. They're just fucking awful, and now even the kicker (who's consistently good) is getting pissed off and flipping off the fans.

Congrats, Patriots.

What a fucking train wreck of a season this is. Bay Area sports is just embarrassing right now.

[Section15Box113]

That list is as of 10/17, as of right now the pick is at worst #8.

And, based on Great Blue North's weekly update, as of 10/30, it's #5.

http://www.gbnreport...ydraftorder.htm

SF is one of four 2-5 teams (thus "at worst #8"), but has the weakest opponents' winning pct at .422.
FWIW, that's weaker than STL, MIA, NYJ, and ATL, all of whom are > .500.

Needless to say, big game @ Atl on Sunday. While on a visceral level, my gut says no chance SF loses this game, the way they're playing, you never know.

[ragnarok725]

Mort reporting that Gore will be out today against the Falcons. That's a big step towards them losing this one. And that would be a pretty huge loss because it looks like one of the most winnable games left on their schedule.

[Deathofthebambino]

Gore is officially inactive.

NICE.

[finnVT]

Mort reporting that Gore will be out today against the Falcons. That's a big step towards them losing this one. And that would be a pretty huge loss because it looks like one of the most winnable games left on their schedule.

Also huge since Atlanta is one of the teams battling for those top picks with them. A SF loss also means an Atl win and helps move that pick even higher.

[cutman1000]

Come on Darren McFadden...

[Red Averages]

For those unfamiliar, here's a highlight video:



Just an incredible athlete with the ability to take it to the house on any given play.

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

By the way, no matter what happens the rest of this week, San Francisco will end week 9 in position for the number-four pick in the 2008 draft.

Based on remaining schedules, though, it still looks like a #6 pick at the end of the season.

[Rough Carrigan]

It helps that they lost to the Falcons, a likely contender for a low draft pick.
What's amazing about this, in retrospect, is that after the draft, all the talking heads on espn were soiling themselves with hosannahs for how bright the 49ers future looked and how improved they were going to be in 2007. It seemed plausible to me. But maybe Bill and Scott knew better (or at least suspected otherwise).

[dnramo]

For those unfamiliar, here's a highlight video:



Just an incredible athlete with the ability to take it to the house on any given play.

He doesn't seem to make a lot of guys miss. Granted, that may be because he's so fast that they rarely get in his way.

Jamaal Charles is a junior and has been impressive, though I have no idea whether he's coming out. He appears to be similar in style to McFadden but (at least at this point) hasn't received the same hype.

[Sportsbstn]

With this loss to Atlanta, it more or less confirms my thinking that the Niners will be lucky to win 1 more game these rest of the way. When all is said and done, I think the only real chance SF has for a win is Carolina on the road, or St Louis at home. Still think they finish 3-13, and the Patriots get the #3 pick overall.

[zolak16]

SF hasn't had a game where they have had at least 200 yards passing after you take the sack yards away since week 3 last year. I don't know how they planned on being better by adding crappy receivers

[Rough Carrigan]

SF hasn't had a game where they have had at least 200 yards passing after you take the sack yards away since week 3 last year. I don't know how they planned on being better by adding crappy receivers

Which is REALLY gonna hurt against the Vikings who crush the run but can't stop the pass.

[Doza]

As I said in my retardo thread...

Time to start rooting for the Jets to win a few. The 49ers are going to pick up a win or two from now until the end.

[Obscure Name]

I''ve been rooting for the Jets the past two weeks. It makes me feel dirty.

[941827]

With this loss to Atlanta, it more or less confirms my thinking that the Niners will be lucky to win 1 more game these rest of the way. When all is said and done, I think the only real chance SF has for a win is Carolina on the road, or St Louis at home. Still think they finish 3-13, and the Patriots get the #3 pick overall.

Seriously. I have no idea how anyone thinks SF is going to wind up with 6 wins.

[Sea Dog]

He doesn't seem to make a lot of guys miss. Granted, that may be because he's so fast that they rarely get in his way.

Jamaal Charles is a junior and has been impressive, though I have no idea whether he's coming out. He appears to be similar in style to McFadden but (at least at this point) hasn't received the same hype.

If McFadden played at LSU, Georgia, Alabama or any other good SEC program, he would be a legend. As it is, he's the best player in the country stuck on a mediocre team with poor coaches. I like watching McFadden run as much as I did Adrian Peterson during his time with the Sooners (when he stayed healthy).

Re: 49ers, I would be stunned if they get six wins. They could beat the Rams, Cardinals, Panthers and Bengals, but no way do they go 4-0 in those games.

[Metrician]

http://origin.mercur...lion/ci_7370278

The 49ers are now at the halfway point of a season that was supposed to end in the playoffs. Instead they are halfway toward qualifying for a top-five pick in April. The only problem is that pick will be going to the New England Patriots - as part of a 2007 draft-day trade for Joe Staley. The 49ers assumed they were going to be good enough this year that their pick would fall later in the first round. It's one thing for fans and media to wildly overshoot the target on expectations for a team - kind of like Smith trying to find his receivers Sunday. But it's a much bigger problem if a team has so little grasp of its own reality.

[bsartist618]

One thing I noticed about that video is he was barely touched (if at all) on those long runs. Part of that is speed I'm sure.

I have not seen enough of him to make a judgement, but how does he do after contact? This team needs a 3rd and 3 back (who I guess was Sammy Morris). Maroney can break a long run but he gets stopped for <1 yrd too often to be relied upon.

[DJnVa]

I guess I need someone to explain how McFadden would fall down to #5. Hell, or even #3. I mean, *maybe* the Fins don't take him with Ronnie Brown, and you'd think the Jets have more pressing needs, and the Falcons are going QB...but could he fall to #5?

[Ferm Sheller]

I guess I need someone to explain how McFadden would fall down to #5. Hell, or even #3. I mean, *maybe* the Fins don't take him with Ronnie Brown, and you'd think the Jets have more pressing needs, and the Falcons are going QB...but could he fall to #5?

Jets would be wise to trade down. If they do, it might be with a team that moves up specifically to grab McFadden.

If the Pats get #5 (or thereabouts), they probably try to shop it, no?

[SoxScout]

My guess is:

Miami, St. Louis, and ATL would pass.

NYJ, OAK, and probably Cincy would take him.

At this point, I don't think the Patriots take McFadden even if we have the chance. I'd look at Phillips around #6, or drop down a few slots for Talib/Jenkins/Laurinaitis/Smith, ect.

FWIW, I consider Jonathan Stewart RB 1A.

Edited by SoxScout, 05 November 2007 - 10:21 AM.

[gtg807y]

If McFadden played at LSU, Georgia, Alabama or any other good SEC program, he would be a legend. As it is, he's the best player in the country stuck on a mediocre team with poor coaches. I like watching McFadden run as much as I did Adrian Peterson during his time with the Sooners (when he stayed healthy).

Re: 49ers, I would be stunned if they get six wins. They could beat the Rams, Cardinals, Panthers and Bengals, but no way do they go 4-0 in those games.

I'm not sure what you're getting at. Are there lots of people out there who really don't think McFadden is the best back in the country? Arkansas was #16 in the country at one point this year and it wasn't because of the respect the media held for Casey Dick. His team sucking will hurt him in the Heisman race, but not in the draft.

After Peterson's season this year teams will be scrambling to get the next rookie running back sensation, and that will be Darren McFadden.

[asection8]

Totally ridiculous question, but if it would mean the difference between a fifth and a fourth, or a fourth and a third, do the Pats throw the game against the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!?

[gtg807y]

Totally ridiculous question, but if it would mean the difference between a fifth and a fourth, or a fourth and a third, do the Pats throw the game against the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!?

I wouldn't imagine so, since it could also mean the difference between:

1) An undefeated historic season vs. "just another" SB season
2) Every Patriots AFC playoff game at the blade vs. possibly one in Indy
3) Stories about how the Pats' unsportsmanlike 227-3 trouncing over the Jets vs. "They really did need the cameras to beat the Green!"

[asection8]

I wouldn't imagine so, since it could also mean the difference between:

1) An undefeated historic season vs. "just another" SB season
2) Every Patriots AFC playoff game at the blade vs. possibly one in Indy
3) Stories about how the Pats' unsportsmanlike 227-3 trouncing over the Jets vs. "They really did need the cameras to beat the Green!"

I'll give ya 1

If Indy loses another one--and assuming the Pats stay unbeaten--you'd be going into the Jets game with two to give with only three to play. It would be a risk, but only just.

I think everyone and there grandmother would know why the Pats lost. Jets fans especially. The big talk would be about whether it's cheap to blow a game to get a better draft pick, about how shameful it would be to do it when a team is on a historic run, about Patriots arrogance. No one would think the Jets the better team.

Personally, I don't care about the pick. They seem to do fine every year with what they have. Still, Belichick is quite Machiavellian, and I could see him thinking it better revenge against the Jets than actually beating them.

[nighthob]

I don't give a shit about the difference between fifth and third in the draft. I want the Jets, and their neanderthal fans, to suffer. Therefore I want to see Eric Manweenie save his job by being the only coach all year to lose to New England by a single field goal.

[gtg807y]

I'll give ya 1

If Indy loses another one--and assuming the Pats stay unbeaten--you'd be going into the Jets game with two to give with only three to play. It would be a risk, but only just.

I think everyone and there grandmother would know why the Pats lost. Jets fans especially. The big talk would be about whether it's cheap to blow a game to get a better draft pick, about how shameful it would be to do it when a team is on a historic run, about Patriots arrogance. No one would think the Jets the better team.

Personally, I don't care about the pick. They seem to do fine every year with what they have. Still, Belichick is quite Machiavellian, and I could see him thinking it better revenge against the Jets than actually beating them.

That would be kind of funny. But I agree with you re: the pick. Part of that comes from thinking that there's very little chance the Pats even use it - what will matter is what they can get in return for a #4 pick vs. the return on a #5 pick, etc.

[DavidWellsAteNelson]

Totally ridiculous question, but if it would mean the difference between a fifth and a fourth, or a fourth and a third, do the Pats throw the game against the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!?

As you say, that's a totally ridiculous question. No.

[Sea Dog]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. Are there lots of people out there who really don't think McFadden is the best back in the country?

No, I'm saying if he were on TV each, playing for a coach who knew what he was doing at a better program, there would be no question about him being the best player -- not just running back -- in the country this season. But because Arkansas lost some games despite his play, some Heisman voters wrote him off and no one talked much about him until this week. Hopefully, this performance helps him to make the finals in New York, despite his team being only so-so. He's still third in the nation rushing this season, and defenses know what's coming.

If in a position to draft him, the Falcons would wise to draft McFadden. Until then, I would give Norwood some carries, to see if he can handle a feature back's workload.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Beoli would never take McFadden in the top five. They are smart enough to understand that an RB that high, with that salary, is a nightmare from a roster/cap standpoint.

If the pick is really high, I think we try to trade it for sure. If we are picking more in the 7-10 range, I could see us trading down a bit but I could also see us trying to grab a defensive lineman, an LT like Sam Baker, or a highly rated DB like Kenny Pillips or Malcolm Jenkins.

Edited by Morgan's Magic Snowplow, 05 November 2007 - 02:50 PM.

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

[smokin joe wood]

They are smart enough to understand that an RB that high, with that salary, is a nightmare from a roster/cap standpoint.

If they decide to not trade a top five pick, because projecting trades is total conjecture, wouldn't a RB be the best possible position to get immediate value for the money given at that point in the draft? With quarterbacks being the worst position for money given to results produced in the front end of a contract, isn't running back the premium position for this money/immediate production model?

Adrian Peterson, the 7th pick in the draft, signed a 7 yr/40 million dollar contract. Which is roughly 5. 75 a year and puts him in the top 5-10% of RB's in the league. Which is still absurd for a guy who's never played a snap in the NFL, but that speaks more to the absurdity of the NFL draft system itself. So what does this mean? To justify such a big contract you need to get immediate production, and at a high level no less. Running back is one of the easiest positions to get immediate production and would be one of the best values at the top of the first round. If they don't trade down, I'd go McFadden.

[Seels]

If they decide to not trade a top five pick, because projecting trades is total conjecture, wouldn't a RB be the best possible position to get immediate value for the money given at that point in the draft? With quarterbacks being the worst position for money given to results produced in the front end of a contract, isn't running back the premium position for this money/immediate production model?

Adrian Peterson, the 7th pick in the draft, signed a 7 yr/40 million dollar contract. Which is roughly 5. 75 a year and puts him in the top 5-10% of RB's in the league. Which is still absurd for a guy who's never played a snap in the NFL, but that speaks more to the absurdity of the NFL draft system itself. So what does this mean? To justify such a big contract you need to get immediate production, and at a high level no less. Running back is one of the easiest positions to get immediate production and would be one of the best values at the top of the first round. If they don't trade down, I'd go McFadden.

I'm pretty sure different positions would dictate different salaries. I don't know where I'd find it, but I'd bet that a safety or linebacker taken at a similar position in the draft would be paid less.

[Metrician]

This could be it (especially if they take it all!) for Bruschi and Seau. So I'm guessing they will trade down to take a LB with some speed and pick up another selection, if they luck out and SF really tanks.
But it's nice to have multipile options and if they think they can get a real stud they may keep the pick.

[FelixMantilla]

Adrian Peterson, the 7th pick in the draft, signed a 7 yr/40 million dollar contract. Which is roughly 5. 75 a year and puts him in the top 5-10% of RB's in the league. Which is still absurd for a guy who's never played a snap in the NFL, but that speaks more to the absurdity of the NFL draft system itself.

I guess it was a bad day to post that.

[gtg807y]

No, I'm saying if he were on TV each, playing for a coach who knew what he was doing at a better program, there would be no question about him being the best player -- not just running back -- in the country this season. But because Arkansas lost some games despite his play, some Heisman voters wrote him off and no one talked much about him until this week. Hopefully, this performance helps him to make the finals in New York, despite his team being only so-so. He's still third in the nation rushing this season, and defenses know what's coming.

If in a position to draft him, the Falcons would wise to draft McFadden. Until then, I would give Norwood some carries, to see if he can handle a feature back's workload.

Okay, I see what you mean. As far as the Falcons, and not to hijack the thread, I'd say their biggest needs are o-line, RB, QB, and d-backs. You're right, I think McFadden would be a good pick for them, since I don't think they have to improve that much to be a player in the (currently) weak NFC South, and McFadden would probably make them a player. I'd say the o-line needs to be fixed before trying to develop a quarterback in there.

[Saints Rest]

If they decide to not trade a top five pick, because projecting trades is total conjecture, wouldn't a RB be the best possible position to get immediate value for the money given at that point in the draft? With quarterbacks being the worst position for money given to results produced in the front end of a contract, isn't running back the premium position for this money/immediate production model?

Adrian Peterson, the 7th pick in the draft, signed a 7 yr/40 million dollar contract. Which is roughly 5. 75 a year and puts him in the top 5-10% of RB's in the league. Which is still absurd for a guy who's never played a snap in the NFL, but that speaks more to the absurdity of the NFL draft system itself. So what does this mean? To justify such a big contract you need to get immediate production, and at a high level no less. Running back is one of the easiest positions to get immediate production and would be one of the best values at the top of the first round. If they don't trade down, I'd go McFadden.

I think LT is the position that most consistently justifies a top 5 pick. There have been studs and flops at all top 5 positions picked over the years, but I think the stud/flop ratio is the highest at LT. One probably needs to go back all the way to Troy Mandarich to find a flop, but the sutds include Orlando Pace, Walter Jones (a 6, i believe), Levi Jones (a 9?), Jonathan Ogden and others. D'Brickashaw seems to be somewhere in the middle.

Oh yeah, Mike WIlliams (a 4) was pretty much a floparoo.

[njingles3]

I think LT is the position that most consistently justifies a top 5 pick. There have been studs and flops at all top 5 positions picked over the years, but I think the stud/flop ratio is the highest at LT. One probably needs to go back all the way to Troy Mandarich to find a flop, but the sutds include Orlando Pace, Walter Jones (a 6, i believe), Levi Jones (a 9?), Jonathan Ogden and others. D'Brickashaw seems to be somewhere in the middle.

Oh yeah, Mike WIlliams (a 4) was pretty much a floparoo.

Robert Gallery has to be in the LT flop conversation. In general I agree; getting an All-Pro LT to anchor the line and protect Brady until he retires would be a great option with a top 5 pick if they want to spend the money.

But Good Lord McFadden would be a sexy addition to this team.

Come draft day I think we'll see what we always see from BB - trade down to mid-first and get another first rounder for the 2009 draft. Save the money and keep that guy Randy around for a little while.