303 replies to this topic

[Foulkey Reese]

At this point why not have Drew lead off since OBP seems to be his lone contribution at the moment?

264/344/453 is what he did from the lead off spot vs 278/384/410 batting 5th.

Take the RBI pressure off of him for a while and see what happens.

And "running him out of town" is pretty lame....he's had one bad season, and the season isn't even over yet. He'll be back next year like it or not...so people booing him will only be counterproductive.

Edited by Foulkey Reese, 30 August 2007 - 08:39 PM.

[Andrew]

But on the "throw away" part--the $50 million dollars is a sunk cost. Whether Drew continues as our starting right fielder or not has absolutely no effect on that fact, except to the extent that by trading him we might foist part of that cost off on another team. If he's not going to perform at a level commensurate with the investment, then the 50 million dollars is thrown away whether we start him or bench him or trade him, and we should decide between those options based on what will produce the best result on the field.

Dropping a player is throwing away the money in his contract. Even if he isn't worth that full amount of money you still keep him in order to get SOME return on your investment.

The idea of purposely trying to "run someone out of town" is juvenile. Grow up, people.

[Foulkey Reese]

Dropping a player is throwing away the money in his contract. Even if he isn't worth that full amount of money you still keep him in order to get SOME return on your investment.

The idea of purposely trying to "run someone out of town" is juvenile. Grow up, people.

Sox are STILL paying for Edgar Renteria who's having a great season while we all bitch about Lugo. Good bet that the same thing would happen with Drew when he hits 28HR's next year for whatever team Theo would unload him to.

[Therdrail]

Sox are STILL paying for Edgar Renteria who's having a great season while we all bitch about Lugo. Good bet that the same thing would happen with Drew when he hits 28HR's next year for whatever team Theo would unload him to.

Yeah, but the point being completely missed by the last 2 posts is that you tie up a roster spot by clinging to
suckage.(A player like Drew)

And there's still no guarantee Renteria would have done well here
CLEARLY we are seeing a pattern that shows us that the jump to the American league can be MUCH harder than anticipated by the player.
(as admitted in the paper, today, by Drew)

I also think it's reasonable to guess that Ellsbury and/or Moss would give you the production you got out of Drew this year, next year.
You'd also get the fire of young players who know they NEED to bust ass to stick.
And you know what, if they struggle, or can't cut it, YOU CAN SEND THEM DOWN, without having to pay them $14mil a year.......


How many years of Drew deadweight do you endure before you dump him and his salary?
What do we do when next July comes around and he STILL sucks?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm?

Do you want to keep him on your team out of pride? or do you want to win Championships?
Keeping Drew on your team, just to not pay him to play elsewhere, while he still sucks and takes up a roster spot that someone who is able to produce could actually have is ridiculous.

Keep this in mind, it costs MORE to lose. You lose post season revenue when you lose/suck, you lose fan support if you suck, which translates into lost revenue, you lose marketing opportunities, etc.

Ridding yourself of dead weight in order to WIN, even if it costs SOME money, can make you more in the long run.

Edited by Therdrail, 30 August 2007 - 09:04 PM.

[Fishy1]

One could argue they already threw away $70 million during the offseason.

Then why don't you do it?

Once and for all I'm going to judge Drew's contract. Without access to BP's Pecota card, I can't make the greatest judgement, but I'll try anyways.

The best contracts are the ones where you get the most for the least value, obviously. Unfortunately, signing marquee players like Drew for cheap is nearly impossible, as they have some pretty stats that everybody wants. Essentially, they're famous and want the big bucks. Drew wasn't as widely sought, as say, Carlos Lee, probably as a result of the fact that he doesn't hit 30 home runs a year anymore and was viewed as a injury-threat. (Which is a myth, he hasn't had a real "chronic" injury since 2003) Anyways, in deciding who to sign, the Sox were looking for the most value out of the least money, unfortunately, they were forced to sift through a lot of really expensive players. Before we judge Drew's contract, let's look at what some other big name players got:

Carlos Lee
07:$11M, 08:$12M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$18.5M
Ichiro
08:$17M, 09:$17M, 10:$17M, 11:$17M, 12:$17M
Dye
08:$9.5M, 09:$11.5M, 10:$12M mutual option ($1M buyout)
V-Dubs
08:$0.5M, 09:$1.5M, 10:$12.5M, 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M
Soriano
07:$9M, 08:$13M, 09:$16M, 10-14:$18M annually
Sheffield
# acquired in trade 11/06 (agreed to 2-year extension as part of trade)
# 07:$13M, 08:$14M, 09:$14M
Matthews Jr.
# 07:$6M, 08:$9M, 09:$10M, 10:$11M, 11:$12M

So, there's some of the big signings. The biggest ones to me are Vernon Wells' and Soriano's. Those feel like a sign of things to come for me. If anything, we were lucky to get a player as good as Drew for as much as the Tigers got Sheffield. Drew is a much better player over his career than alot of those players: Matthews, Soriano, Wells, Carlos Lee, Dye, and they're making a lot more money than he is (excepting Matthews). They signed him after a pretty a year that wasn't great, but about in line with his career norms, but he essentially got ignored because he hadn't had some sort of a career year. A lot of money is being thrown around, people, and the Drew signing could look very good next year when players are consistently having 20 million + on them.

Also, judging a 5 year contract after the first year is folly. As is judging a player based on one year rather than his whole career. Drew has sucked. I know. But that doesn't mean he is a bad player on the whole. I might be preaching to an angry mob and nobody might hear me, but I tried.

P.S. Feel free to come at me about any of the above players. I really just quick and dirtied and looked at their career OPS+ in judging them. (Interesting. Drew and Lee had identical OPS+ last year and Lee got three million more.) And obviously argue with me about Drew's contract. I'd rather talk about what people think of the signing at the time considering his career and what else could happen with him in the coming years, but I'm sure I'll get some posts saying we should judge him on 2007, so whatever.

quickie edit: All of this contract information was per Cot's Baseball Contracts.Great website if you want to read about what Daisuke's perks are for his contract or whatever.

Edited by Fishy1, 30 August 2007 - 09:00 PM.

[January]

At this point why not have Drew lead off since OBP seems to be his lone contribution at the moment?

264/344/453 is what he did from the lead off spot vs 278/384/410 batting 5th.

Take the RBI pressure off of him for a while and see what happens.

Wasn't that tried? Anyway, we need a lefty down at the end of the lineup and someone has to bat 5th. Might as well just leave him where he has usually been. It's not a big difference, and we have better leadoff people already. (Pedroia and Youk are much better OBP people and Coco and Lugo are fast. Drew is like a slow Coco with less power). Putting Drew up there is just wasting an opportunity.


Point: Renteria may be having a good year, but it's not clear he would have a good year if he were still here. Since we don't know why he had a bad year, it's hard to talk about this.

Observation: It seems to me like Drew hammers bad pitching, but stinks against average or good pitching. I.e., he basically looks for a mistake and hammers it. Thus, he has good numbers, but isn't as useful as the numbers seem to suggest. This would also tend to explain is apparent lack of clutch hits.

The only way I can think of to check is to look at the post-season(when you face better pitching)

Drew in October: 233 .320 .349
Regular Drew: 283 .389 .498
Nancy Drew(This year): 260 .360 .390

I'm not sure what a normal drop off is for regular vs post-season, but Drew's is pretty big.

Edited by January, 30 August 2007 - 09:14 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

How many years of Drew deadweight do you endure before you dump him and his salary?

As has already been noted in this thread, you can dump him, but not his salary. We're paying him, regardless. Even if we can trade him, we'll certainly have to pick up a substantial portion of his tab (in addition to the salary of whoever replaces him in the lineup).

Like I said before, that in itself is not a good enough reason to run him out there indefinitely if his woes continue into 2008. But it's an illusion to think that we can rid ourselves of the financial burden of his contract.

[RedSox04]

Then why don't you do it?

Once and for all I'm going to judge Drew's contract. Without access to BP's Pecota card, I can't make the greatest judgement, but I'll try anyways.

The best contracts are the ones where you get the most for the least value, obviously. Unfortunately, signing marquee players like Drew for cheap is nearly impossible, as they have some pretty stats that everybody wants. Essentially, they're famous and want the big bucks. Drew wasn't as widely sought, as say, Carlos Lee, probably as a result of the fact that he doesn't hit 30 home runs a year anymore and was viewed as a injury-threat. (Which is a myth, he hasn't had a real "chronic" injury since 2003) Anyways, in deciding who to sign, the Sox were looking for the most value out of the least money, unfortunately, they were forced to sift through a lot of really expensive players. Before we judge Drew's contract, let's look at what some other big name players got:

Carlos Lee
07:$11M, 08:$12M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$18.5M
Ichiro
08:$17M, 09:$17M, 10:$17M, 11:$17M, 12:$17M
Dye
08:$9.5M, 09:$11.5M, 10:$12M mutual option ($1M buyout)
V-Dubs
08:$0.5M, 09:$1.5M, 10:$12.5M, 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M
Soriano
07:$9M, 08:$13M, 09:$16M, 10-14:$18M annually
Sheffield
# acquired in trade 11/06 (agreed to 2-year extension as part of trade)
# 07:$13M, 08:$14M, 09:$14M
Matthews Jr.
# 07:$6M, 08:$9M, 09:$10M, 10:$11M, 11:$12M

So, there's some of the big signings. The biggest ones to me are Vernon Wells' and Soriano's. Those feel like a sign of things to come for me. If anything, we were lucky to get a player as good as Drew for as much as the Tigers got Sheffield. Drew is a much better player over his career than alot of those players: Matthews, Soriano, Wells, Carlos Lee, Dye, and they're making a lot more money than he is (excepting Matthews). They signed him after a pretty a year that wasn't great, but about in line with his career norms, but he essentially got ignored because he hadn't had some sort of a career year. A lot of money is being thrown around, people, and the Drew signing could look very good next year when players are consistently having 20 million + on them.

Also, judging a 5 year contract after the first year is folly. As is judging a player based on one year rather than his whole career. Drew has sucked. I know. But that doesn't mean he is a bad player on the whole. I might be preaching to an angry mob and nobody might hear me, but I tried.

P.S. Feel free to come at me about any of the above players. I really just quick and dirtied and looked at their career OPS+ in judging them. (Interesting. Drew and Lee had identical OPS+ last year and Lee got three million more.) And obviously argue with me about Drew's contract. I'd rather talk about what people think of the signing at the time considering his career and what else could happen with him in the coming years, but I'm sure I'll get some posts saying we should judge him on 2007, so whatever.

Part of the reason people talk so heavily about 2007 is that it's obvious that the Sox have a real shot at a World Championship and people are frustrated right now that here we are with a chance to win, and Drew is not helping this team win. Come 2008, who knows how the Sox will look? The Yankees might be a juggernaut, or perhaps our lineup ages to the point, where a Drew comeback doesn't matter as much, but still in 2007 we need Drew to produce. We cannot just simply say, write off this season. Believe it or not, I do understand patience in waiting to judge a 5 year contract, but our precarious first place position demands that Drew produces now.

[Andrew]

Yeah, but the point being completely missed by the last 2 posts is that you tie up a roster spot by clinging to
suckage.

Roster spots are not an issue starting in two days. If this was the point that I "completely missed" then it's pretty apparent that the reason I missed it was because it was entirely irrelevant.

I also think it's reasonable to guess that Ellsbury and/or Moss would give you the production you got out of Drew this year, next year.

If his production is unacceptable this year what makes the same production from someone else acceptable next year?

And you know what, if they struggle, or can't cut it, YOU CAN SEND THEM DOWN, without having to pay them $14mil a year.......

And you'd be left with what, exactly? Nobody in the outfield?

How many years of Drew deadweight do you endure before you dump him and his salary?
What do we do when next July comes around and he STILL sucks?

Because there's absolutely no reason to think he won't improve. Frankly, it would be hard for him not too.

Edited by Andrew, 30 August 2007 - 09:06 PM.

[ScubaSteveAvery]

So let me get this straight...some of you want to do this continual dump a player after a poor year in Boston crap? Continuing this process will have serious blowback on the organization.

Seriously, what player would want to come to Boston then if they don't post career year numbers their first year here?

I highly doubt this FO would want to just eat $56 million dollars. Thats a huge loss and a fiscally irresponsible one. All we can do his hope that Drew turns it around this season at least and if not, gets time this winter to clear his mind and come to spring training with a clear heed next year. I'm fairly confident next year we will see a J.D. Drew hitting around .275 with a .370 OBP with around 15-18 HR's. Will he be overpayed? Sure. But you should just get used to supporting him because he is going to the RF for at least two more years.

Edited by Bosox33, 30 August 2007 - 09:15 PM.

[Therdrail]

Roster spots are not an issue starting in two days.

But they are from April to August 31, you can't pretend it's not true, just cause your blather works for you now.

If this was the point that I "completely missed" then it's pretty apparent that the reason I missed it was because it was entirely irrelevant.
If his production is unacceptable this year what makes the same production from someone else acceptable next year?

Well the fact that you aren't paying them 14mil is a good place to start, if i'm going to get mediocre production from right field,
i'll take it, next year, from players with an actual possible upside who are making MLB Min.
If you told me today, that Drew would have his "best" season of his career as a Red Sox player, i'd be embarrassed for you.
AT BEST, we are all now hoping Drew climbs back to the mediocre norms of .280/20HR/.390opb(alright his OBP is pretty ok)

And you'd be left with what, exactly? Nobody in the outfield?

isn't that pretty much what we have now?????

Because there's absolutely no reason to think he won't improve. Frankly, it would be hard for him not too.

There was "absolutely no reason" to think he'd suck this bad, yet he has.
Can you actually look me in the face and say there is "ABSOLUTELY no reason" to be concerned that he's done?

ABSOLUTELY NO REASON?????

please.....

Edited by Therdrail, 30 August 2007 - 09:18 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Drew is a much better player over his career than alot of those players: Matthews, Soriano, Wells, Carlos Lee, Dye, and they're making a lot more money than he is (excepting Matthews).

It's remarkable how right you are. I went to their BBref pages thinking that Lee, if nobody else, would at least look roughly equal to Drew statistically. But none of them do--except in cumulative stats, based on the fact that they play 150-162 games every year. At bat for at bat, Drew blows them out of the water, as most easily shown by runs created/game (used to be listed as runs created/27 outs). Keep in mind that these stats include this year:

PLAYER     RC/GDrew       7.4Soriano    6.0Lee        5.9Dye        5.7Wells      5.6Matthews   5.1

J.D.'s RC/G this year: 5.0.

It's just a mystery. If there was a negative equivalent to a Comeback Player of the Year award, for somebody whose performance takes the biggest leap over a cliff without warning, you'd have to name it the J.D. Drew Award in "honor" of this season.

[Sea Dog]

Sox are STILL paying for Edgar Renteria who's having a great season while we all bitch about Lugo. Good bet that the same thing would happen with Drew when he hits 28HR's next year for whatever team Theo would unload him to.

Considering how he's hit more than 20 homers only twice in his career (27 in 2001 with the Cardinals, 31 in 2004 with the Braves), I doubt that he hits 28 home runs next season, no matter where he is.

[Andrew]

But they are from April to August 31, you can't pretend it's not true, just cause your blather works for you now.

April, May, June, July, and August have already passed. How do they matter?

Well the fact that you aren't paying them 14mil is a good place to start,

Which would be completely negated by the fact that they'd be paying Drew 14 million dollars to be playing for someone else. That cost is sunk. You can't get around that.

if i'm going to get mediocre production from right field, i'll take it, next year, from players with an actual possible upside who are making MLB Min.

JD Drew has tremendous upside. It's called his career norms. Stop trying to fool yourself into thinking he's some abyssmal player. He isn't Jose Offerman. He IS a good player who just happens to be having a horrific year.

AT BEST, we are all now hoping Drew climbs back to the mediocre norms of .280/20HR/.390opb(alright his OBP is pretty ok)

That's a pretty fantastic definition of "Mediocrity".

isn't that pretty much what we have now?????
There was "absolutely no reason" to think he'd suck this bad, yet he has.
Can you actually look me in the face and say there is "ABSOLUTELY no reason" to be concerned that he's done?

So, you think that JD Drew's entire career was a fluke and he's actually a terrible player that has been fooling everyone? There is ABSOLUTELY no reason to think he won't be better next year. People have bad years. It's part of baseball. You're being a reactionary hothead.

[Fishy1]

but still in 2007 we need Drew to produce.

You're right, definitely. Unfortunately, I can't say with confidence Drew can be himself in September. He could be great, average, or awful. This month, August, was the closest he came to being himself: .835 OPS. I would imagine it's a pointless effort to try to guess how he'll do in September, but we can only hope he play to his potential.

It's just a mystery. If there was a negative equivalent to a Comeback Player of the Year award, for somebody whose performance takes the biggest leap over a cliff without warning, you'd have to name it the J.D. Drew Award in "honor" of this season.

To be honest, I didn't think there was that much distance. I knew Drew wrecked guys like Matthews and Wells and Dye, but I didn't know it was that much of a gap. Christ. Obviously a lot of these guys, especially Wells, were signed for what their org. thinks they will do in the future, but still. All those people got bigger contracts and are, by rate stats, worse offensive players.

EDIT: Drop it Andrew. Let him believe Drew sucks. There ain't nothing like bitterness and anger for a wall.

Edited by Fishy1, 30 August 2007 - 09:29 PM.

[Therdrail]

So let me get this straight...some of you want to do this continual dump a player after a poor year in Boston crap? Continuing this process will have serious blowback on the organization.

Seriously, what player would want to come to Boston then if they don't post career year numbers their first year here?

I highly doubt this FO would want to just eat $56 million dollars. Thats a huge loss and a fiscally irresponsible one. All we can do his hope that Drew turns it around this season at least and if not, gets time this winter to clear his mind and come to spring training with a clear heed next year. I'm fairly confident next year we will see a J.D. Drew hitting around .275 with a .370 OBP with around 15-18 HR's. Will he be overpayed? Sure. But you should just get used to supporting him because he is going to the RF for at least two more years.

So let me get this straight, some of you want to hold onto deadweight, year after year so as not to bruise your armchair GM ego?

They would never eat 56mil, there has be some National league GM that will take a chance.
Maybe at 10mill/yr.?

Which looks worse to a possible free agent thinking of coming to Boston?

A) Helping an unhappy/unproductive player, find a new, happy home?

or

B) Holding onto deadweight as the unhappy/unproductive player stays unhappy and sucks out on the field for years?

Hmmmmmmmmmmm?

Edited by Therdrail, 30 August 2007 - 09:40 PM.

[Therdrail]

April, May, June, July, and August have already passed. How do they matter?

But, clearly, he's signed for 4 more years, try to pay attention.

Which would be completely negated by the fact that they'd be paying Drew 14 million dollars to be playing for someone else. That cost is sunk. You can't get around that.

They are picking up about 20% of Renteria's salary?, a National league GM would be the only obvious taker for Drew,
and anyone with a brain knows he won't be GIVEN away, but it may come to a point where paying 50% might be worth it......we'll see won't we?

JD Drew has tremendous upside. It's called his career norms. Stop trying to fool yourself into thinking he's some abyssmal player. He isn't Jose Offerman. He IS a good player who just happens to be having a horrific year.

You are kidding yourself, JD Drew might "correct" to carreer norms, which is NOT "terrific upside", it's a "correction" to a solid major leaguer, but a superstar he is NOT

That's a pretty fantastic definition of "Mediocrity".

OK, i took some liberty there, we'd all certainly take/settle for those number this year

So, you think that JD Drew's entire career was a fluke and he's actually a terrible player that has been fooling everyone? There is ABSOLUTELY no reason to think he won't be better next year. People have bad years. It's part of baseball. You're being a reactionary hothead.

No, but you are a fool to "parrot" stats and claim he's "bound" to be better. You said he'd likely be back to his old self, not just "better than this year" which would be hard to NOT do(in some aspects)

Also, just an FYI, i turned on Drew after his April/May slump, i'm not just reacting now.
Yes he's sucking, but even more, as baseball is ultimately entertainment, watching Drew play is the visual equivalent of nails down a chalkboard.

Edited by Therdrail, 30 August 2007 - 10:02 PM.

[Imgran]

So let me get this straight, some of you want to hold onto deadweight, year after year so as not to bruise your armchair GM ego?

They would never eat 56mil, there has be some National league GM that will take a chance.
Maybe at 10mill/yr.?

Which looks worse to a possible free agent thinking of coming to Boston?

A) Helping an unhappy/unproductive player, fine a new, happy home?

or

B) Holding onto deadweight as the unhappy/unproductive player stays unhappy and sucks out on the field for years?

Hmmmmmmmmmmm?

All due respect, Therd, but not buying it. No one grabbed Theo's hand and forced him to sign that contract. If JD wants to go back to the National League he'll talk Boras into finding a way to opt out of the deal. If he doesn't want to do that then he'll make adjustments and start hitting again. If he hits up to his career numbers there's no need to trade anyone. But the team won't arbitrarily send J. D. Drew away to happier havens. First of all, their options would be pretty much limited to the Cubs or the Mets because of the size of that contract, basically meaning they get bent over a barrell if they try it, and secondly, if Boston kicks Drew to the curb he can kiss any interest from an AL big market goodbye never to be seen again. That can do a guy a lot of damage in contract negotiations.

Edited by Imgran, 30 August 2007 - 09:43 PM.

[Therdrail]

All due respect, Therd, but not buying it. No one grabbed Theo's hand and forced him to sign that contract. If JD wants to go back to the National League he'll talk Boras into finding a way to opt out of the deal. If he doesn't want to do that then he'll make adjustments and start hitting again. If he hits up to his career numbers there's no need to trade anyone.

I don't disagree, but the question i'm trying to debate is what if he continues to suck?

I don't think the Sox just cut bait on Rent, i have a funny feeling word was put out (by his agent)
that "if the opportunity arose" to trade him back to the NL, that would be cool by him.

He shot his way out of town, but only in the "making pathetic excuses for his play" kind of way.
I don't remember one single article that said he was actually surprised it happened.

Perhaps Drew will follow Rent's lead

Edited by Therdrail, 30 August 2007 - 09:48 PM.

[doc]

Alright lets get some perspective here people I'm as passionate a fan as anyone else but you know what this is BASEBALL people, baseball. Not life and death (and I know life and death) but baseball.
Let's look at Drew's career in brief. His St Louis seasons were marred by a knee injury called patella tendonitis which causes excrutiating pain, has no MRI findings and is diagnosed by worsening episodes that only respond to rest but keeps recurring. He got his "Nancy Drew" label over this, nice huh. And his manager one Mr Tony LaRussa has a good track record of having no patience with injured players as evidenced by his response to recent injuries to Rolen and Edmunds. Then he's been hit with a pitch that fractured his wrist and had a shoulder repair while they fixed his wrist. The bad part about that shoulder repair is that full strength comes back in about a year of sometime soon. He's also adjusting to a new league and new pitchers, he looks off balance with his whole approach to hitting.

Now for the important part WE ARE IN FIRST PLACE STILL!

Yeah by 5 games!

We will make the playoffs this year either taking the AL east or as the wildcard with a 98% chance according to BP.

Now this series sucked but you know what this isn't 1978, 1978 hurt. This isn't 1986, this isn't 2003 they hurt and hurt like a mutherfucker.

The sky is not falling chicken fucking little.

Suck it up we are Red Sox fans and it just got intense, the life of a Red Sox fan is always intense.

[ScubaSteveAvery]

So let me get this straight, some of you want to hold onto deadweight, year after year so as not to bruise your armchair GM ego?

They would never eat 56mil, there has be some National league GM that will take a chance.
Maybe at 10mill/yr.?

Which looks worse to a possible free agent thinking of coming to Boston?

A) Helping an unhappy/unproductive player, find a new, happy home?

or

B) Holding onto deadweight as the unhappy/unproductive player stays unhappy and sucks out on the field for years?

Hmmmmmmmmmmm?

Haha, bruise my armchair GM ego? It seems like your the one getting all upset because everyone is using logic in saying you have to wait for more than one year before constantly kicking players to the curb, while you vehemently disagree, hiding behind a wall of "You don't know for sure he will bounce back."

If Drew is moved, there is no way the Sox get anything close to his value as a player in return unless they eat a significant portion of his contract. This is common baseball economics. I'd rather overpay for Drew and get .275 avg with 15 HR's for another 2 years than do a complete salary dump for a couple of prospects, none of which will be elite.

Where is your evidence that Drew is unhappy? By all accounts he seems content in Boston, but not content with his own production. This is not the organizations fault, but rather his inability to quickly adjust to a new league. And if you want indication of Drew bouncing back, how about you check out the most sophisticated prediction system we have at this time: PECOTA. It says he will eventually return to his career numbers.

But so far, you have provided zero evidence that Drew is a.) Unhappy and b.) he will not bounce back from this year. Until you do so in a convincing manner, I'll believe the evidence that points otherwise.

[Old Pioneer]

I don't disagree, but the question i'm trying to debate is what if he continues to suck?

About 30 years ago, there was another right fielder who was accused of not living up to his potential. Dewey Evans was a tremendous defensive right fielder, but he was overshadowed by Lynn, Rice and Yaz because he didn't hit as well as they, and he didn't live up to expectations of greatness. Not for half a season. Not for one season. From 1972 to 1981, Evans was a defensive wizard who only sporadically showed talent at bat. Then, all of a sudden, Evans took off and was suddenly the player the Red Sox had expected him to be.

Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1972 20 BOS AL 18 57 2 15 3 1 1 6 0 0 7 13 .263 .344 .404 117 23 0 0 0 0 2
1973 21 BOS AL 119 282 46 63 13 1 10 32 5 0 40 52 .223 .320 .383 93 108 3 2 2 1 8
1974 22 BOS AL 133 463 60 130 19 8 10 70 4 4 38 77 .281 .335 .421 111 195 6 5 2 2 9
1975 23 BOS AL 128 412 61 113 24 6 13 56 3 4 47 60 .274 .353 .456 120 188 5 2 3 4 10
1976 24 BOS AL 146 501 61 121 34 5 17 62 6 7 57 92 .242 .324 .431 110 216 3 4 4 6 11
1977 25 BOS AL 73 230 39 66 9 2 14 36 4 2 28 58 .287 .363 .526 129 121 6 1 0 0 3
1978 26 BOS AL 147 497 75 123 24 2 24 63 8 5 65 119 .247 .336 .449 110 223 6 2 2 2 15 AS
1979 27 BOS AL 152 489 69 134 24 1 21 58 6 9 69 76 .274 .364 .456 115 223 3 1 7 1 14
1980 28 BOS AL 148 463 72 123 37 5 18 60 3 1 64 98 .266 .358 .484 125 224 6 4 6 5 5
1981 29 BOS AL 108 412 84 122 19 4 22 71 3 2 85 85 .296 .415 .522 163 215 3 3 1 1 8 SS,MVP-3,AS
1982 30 BOS AL 162 609 122 178 37 7 32 98 3 2 112 125 .292 .402 .534 149 325 3 2 1 1 17 MVP-7
1983 31 BOS AL 126 470 74 112 19 4 22 58 3 0 70 97 .238 .338 .436 106 205 0 2 5 2 12
1984 32 BOS AL 162 630 121 186 37 8 32 104 3 1 96 115 .295 .388 .532 147 335 1 7 2 4 19 MVP-11
1985 33 BOS AL 159 617 110 162 29 1 29 78 7 2 114 105 .263 .378 .454 124 280 1 7 4 5 16
1986 34 BOS AL 152 529 86 137 33 2 26 97 3 3 97 117 .259 .376 .476 131 252 2 6 4 6 11
1987 35 BOS AL 154 541 109 165 37 2 34 123 4 6 106 98 .305 .417 .569 156 308 0 7 6 3 10 SS,MVP-4,AS
1988 36 BOS AL 149 559 96 164 31 7 21 111 5 1 76 99 .293 .375 .487 136 272 2 7 3 1 16 MVP-9
1989 37 BOS AL 146 520 82 148 27 3 20 100 3 3 99 84 .285 .397 .463 137 241 1 7 1 3 16
1990 38 BOS AL 123 445 66 111 18 3 13 63 3 4 67 73 .249 .349 .391 103 174 0 6 5 4 18
1991 39 BAL AL 101 270 35 73 9 1 6 38 2 3 54 54 .270 .393 .378 119 102 1 2 2 2 7


+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1998 22 STL NL 14 36 9 15 3 1 5 13 0 0 4 10 .417 .463 .972 267 35 0 1 0 0 4
1999 23 STL NL 104 368 72 89 16 6 13 39 19 3 50 77 .242 .340 .424 92 156 3 3 0 6 4
2000 24 STL NL 135 407 73 120 17 2 18 57 17 9 67 99 .295 .401 .479 122 195 5 1 4 6 3
2001 25 STL NL 109 375 80 121 18 5 27 73 13 3 57 75 .323 .414 .613 162 230 3 4 4 4 6
2002 26 STL NL 135 424 61 107 19 1 18 56 8 2 57 104 .252 .349 .429 110 182 3 4 4 8 4
2003 27 STL NL 100 287 60 83 13 3 15 42 2 2 36 48 .289 .374 .512 133 147 2 0 0 3 6
2004 28 ATL NL 145 518 118 158 28 8 31 93 12 3 118 116 .305 .436 .569 158 295 1 3 2 5 7 MVP-6
2005 29 LAD NL 72 252 48 72 12 1 15 36 1 1 51 50 .286 .412 .520 148 131 0 3 3 5 3
2006 30 LAD NL 146 494 84 140 34 6 20 100 2 3 89 106 .283 .393 .498 125 246 1 6 8 4 4
2007 31 BOS AL 115 385 67 100 23 3 7 46 2 2 61 85 .260 .360 .390 97 150 0 3 8 1 9

http://www.baseball-reference.com

I bring this up because I'm sick to death of Red Sox "fans" talking shit about players, saying so-and-so sucks because "his numbers suck." Yet, many of those same people rant about how their bosses ride their asses all day long for having bad production numbers. The irony is obvious, as is the hypocrisy.

Honestly, it's crap like this thread that causes friends of mine who are Yankee fans to ask me, "Why do you guys beat the hell out of your players instead of just taking things as they come?" Yeah, I know, all of New England has a massive case of penis envy because Harry Frazee sent most of the 1918 World Champion Red Sox to The Bronx to form the nucleus of the Yankee dynasty, and no true Red Sox fan can possibly admit that inferiority complex. Also, no matter how well the team is doing, it's always "our team sucks, and it's all because of Don Zimmer/our shitty starters/our shitty bullpen/that f-ing Jim Rice/Fat Billy from Ohio/Gump/Timlin/Drew" (among others). You'd think Boston fans would've learned not to crucify their players, but eveidently that isn't the case.

Drew's probably more upset about not producing than any fan thinks. However, to his credit, he's not an obnoxious jerk like Paul O'Neill, throwing helmets and bats after every mistake or ill-timed out. But instead of being grateful for that, some fans say the man doesn't have any heart. Nice.

In summation, get a grip, stop blaming Drew (and Hinske) for your own inadequacies, and let's do what we can to encourage our team while they're doing what we can only wish we could do: Play on a first-place team that's the best in the majors, and that should have a good chance to win another World Series this year.

[ScubaSteveAvery]

I bring this up because I'm sick to death of Red Sox "fans" talking shit about players, saying so-and-so sucks because "his numbers suck." Yet, many of those same people rant about how their bosses ride their asses all day long for having bad production numbers. The irony is obvious, as is the hypocrisy.

Honestly, it's crap like this thread that causes friends of mine who are Yankee fans to ask me, "Why do you guys beat the hell out of your players instead of just taking things as they come?" Yeah, I know, all of New England has a massive case of penis envy because Harry Frazee sent most of the 1918 World Champion Red Sox to The Bronx to form the nucleus of the Yankee dynasty, and no true Red Sox fan can possibly admit that inferiority complex. Also, no matter how well the team is doing, it's always "our team sucks, and it's all because of Don Zimmer/our shitty starters/our shitty bullpen/that f-ing Jim Rice/Fat Billy from Ohio/Gump/Timlin/Drew" (among others). You'd think Boston fans would've learned not to crucify their players, but eveidently that isn't the case.

Drew's probably more upset about not producing than any fan thinks. However, to his credit, he's not an obnoxious jerk like Paul O'Neill, throwing helmets and bats after every mistake or ill-timed out. But instead of being grateful for that, some fans say the man doesn't have any heart. Nice.

In summation, get a grip, stop blaming Drew (and Hinske) for your own inadequacies, and let's do what we can to encourage our team while they're doing what we can only wish we could do: Play on a first-place team that's the best in the majors, and that should have a good chance to win another World Series this year.

Well said my friend..well said.

[Therdrail]

Haha, bruise my armchair GM ego? It seems like your the one getting all upset because everyone is using logic in saying you have to wait for more than one year before constantly kicking players to the curb, while you vehemently disagree, hiding behind a wall of "You don't know for sure he will bounce back."

And you are building a "wall of hope" that he will. One of us will be proven wrong, i'm just thinking the preferred scenario is him gone with the Sox picking up not too much of his salary.
If you've bothered to actually read my posts, i never said he and ALL of his salary would be dumped.

If Drew is moved, there is no way the Sox get anything close to his value as a player in return unless they eat a significant portion of his contract. This is common baseball economics. I'd rather overpay for Drew and get .275 avg with 15 HR's for another 2 years than do a complete salary dump for a couple of prospects, none of which will be elite.

We use same logic, but mine tells me he MIGHT NOT bounce back, yours tells you he MIGHT. Neither of us can be right as of now, so your stance is as preposterous as you believe mine to be.

Where is your evidence that Drew is unhappy? By all accounts he seems content in Boston, but not content with his own production. This is not the organizations fault, but rather his inability to quickly adjust to a new league. And if you want indication of Drew bouncing back, how about you check out the most sophisticated prediction system we have at this time: PECOTA. It says he will eventually return to his career numbers.

Yeah, Drew is going to run up to Bob ryan and admit he is unhappy(oh the irony), during the playoff push......If nothing else, he is a professional who goes with the party line.
He won't say anything bad until he's gone...you watch

Also, slick, what were the "PECOTA" projections for Drew this year?.....whats that? ....come again??
so far they are ..what?....they were.....WRONG??!!??!?!...........thought so..............

But so far, you have provided zero evidence that Drew is a.) Unhappy and b.) he will not bounce back from this year. Until you do so in a convincing manner, I'll believe the evidence that points otherwise.

Your argument is qualitatively contradictory, but equally unconvincing.

Edited by Therdrail, 30 August 2007 - 10:41 PM.

[Blue Monkey]

It's frustrating to watch him play. But we need to give him another shot in 2008. 2 words:

edgar renteria

[Savin Hillbilly]

Your argument is qualitatively contradictory, but equally unconvincing.

Eh?

He has a simple truth on his side: Drew has been an outstanding player for a much larger portion of his career than he has sucked. It's logical to assume that this year is the fluke, and that there will a correction toward the norm of the rest of his career. It's not even close to a certainty, of course, but to assume the contrary (in the absence of any *specific* reason for it) seems perverse, negativity for negativity's sake.

I'm not saying this isn't tempting! And in a game thread, I'll rant my absolute loathing of Drew's suckitude with the best of them. But this isn't a game thread. This is where we're supposed to be thinking clearly and making sense. And I'm not convinced that you are doing either.

[Therdrail]

About 30 years ago, there was another right fielder who was accused of not living up to his potential. Dewey Evans was a tremendous defensive right fielder, but he was overshadowed by Lynn, Rice and Yaz because he didn't hit as well as they, and he didn't live up to expectations of greatness. Not for half a season. Not for one season. From 1972 to 1981, Evans was a defensive wizard who only sporadically showed talent at bat. Then, all of a sudden, Evans took off and was suddenly the player the Red Sox had expected him to be.

Errrrr........................Dwight Evens was a Sox farm hand, not the second highest paid player on the team who was brought in specifically to PRODUCE offensively behind the best 3-4 tandem in recent baseball history.......

I bring this up because I'm sick to death of Red Sox "fans" talking shit about players, saying so-and-so sucks because "his numbers suck." Yet, many of those same people rant about how their bosses ride their asses all day long for having bad production numbers. The irony is obvious, as is the hypocrisy.

I'm self employed, but i did have a couple excellent and positive bosses in my life

Honestly, it's crap like this thread that causes friends of mine who are Yankee fans to ask me, "Why do you guys beat the hell out of your players instead of just taking things as they come?" Yeah, I know, all of New England has a massive case of penis envy because Harry Frazee sent most of the 1918 World Champion Red Sox to The Bronx to form the nucleus of the Yankee dynasty, and no true Red Sox fan can possibly admit that inferiority complex. Also, no matter how well the team is doing, it's always "our team sucks, and it's all because of Don Zimmer/our shitty starters/our shitty bullpen/that f-ing Jim Rice/Fat Billy from Ohio/Gump/Timlin/Drew" (among others). You'd think Boston fans would've learned not to crucify their players, but eveidently that isn't the case.

OK, so here's where you give away that you are high.........Yankee fans HAMMER their players when they struggle.
Arod, Cano, Abreu, Damon, Clemens, Mussina and Rivera have all been BOOED LOUDLY this year at Yankee stadium.
Super Roger was BOOED OFF THE MOUND this year.
Visit www.nyyfans.com for an (apparent) eye opener on how they CONSTANTLY talk shit about their players.
Have your Yankee fan friends go their too......

Drew's probably more upset about not producing than any fan thinks. However, to his credit, he's not an obnoxious jerk like Paul O'Neill, throwing helmets and bats after every mistake or ill-timed out. But instead of being grateful for that, some fans say the man doesn't have any heart. Nice.

Eh, i've called him a pussy(in the relative Dirtdog(top end) to Pussy(low end) scale, as it relates to atheletes)

but i never said he has no heart. I also never said he wasn't disappointed in himself.
I'm sure he is, but i'm sure he can take some of his $14mil, get therapy, and figure it out.

In summation, get a grip, stop blaming Drew (and Hinske) for your own inadequacies, and let's do what we can to encourage our team while they're doing what we can only wish we could do: Play on a first-place team that's the best in the majors, and that should have a good chance to win another World Series this year.

I guess they would be MY inadequacies if i was actually ON the Sox and sucking............
I'm not though. So really, the discussion, as much as the noodleheads like to deflect the issue, is really about those players who have sucked, relatively consistently most of the year.

I DARE you to tell me that right now, in a tight situation, bottom of the 9th, tying/winning runs on, game of the year that decides if we do or don't go to the playoffs,

that you want Drew up at that plate..........

(hell, even want him in the game to start with)

Edited by Therdrail, 30 August 2007 - 11:28 PM.

[sonjakaje]

"J.D Drew".... The words first came to me via a copy of the Philadelphia Inquirer in the summer of 97. His non-signing was long over and the P.I. was still ravaging him. I was reminded of this a few years later when he was withdrawn from his outfield position (playing with the Cards I think) after being pelted with D-batteries during his first game at Veterans' Stadium. A Philly fan held a sign aloft: "J.D. DREW YOU ARE A DISGRACE TO BASEBALL". I laughed.

A few years later, the dude is on my team. At $14 mil per annum.

He has been injured routinely throughout his career. I do not expect him to play as much as the player he replaced. I would have liked to see a better performance offensively and/or defensively over the replacement's value. That has not happened, IMO.

Defensively, he has good range, and a good arm. The compliments stop there.

On Offense, J.D. Drew, or as I now like to call him, "PO-2", has been offensive... smelling. I mean, he smells bad. Perhaps my memory is morbidly masochistic, but his passive gazing at called 3rd strikes and the waving of his helpless bat have seared their images onto my soul.

I can't buy into the idea that he doesn't care or doesn't want to win. I think he's too good a ballplayer to keep stinking it up. I've stopped hoping for an awesome player that represents $14 mil in value, I'm hoping for a better than adequate player who can wake up and perform well in the stretch and through October.

Maybe his son's illness is distracting him; which is understandable, it's not a nice situation. If this is the case it's bad for him and therefore bad for us. Maybe it's getting adjusted to the AL. Again, not so good for him and bad for us. I hope his son is well and gets better. I hope our new RF adjusts if there's any more adjusting to do. I hope he's able to hit some when it counts in the next 2 months.

Whether PO-2 or J.D. Drew shows up for the next 2 months, he's here for this season whether we like it or not; he's probably here for 2008 and beyond. The thread topic wondering if it's time to run him out of town is a non-starter until November at the earliest. I still hope for the best and will cheer him on; I'm stupid that way. In any case, we'll be able to see the 'adjustment theory' put to the test in 2008. If it goes horribly awry, we might consider opening a debate on the utility of stockpiling batteries for the next time the Sox play Philly in interleague.

Go Sox

[Therdrail]

Eh?

He has a simple truth on his side: Drew has been an outstanding player for a much larger portion of his career than he has sucked. It's logical to assume that this year is the fluke, and that there will a correction toward the norm of the rest of his career. It's not even close to a certainty, of course, but to assume the contrary (in the absence of any *specific* reason for it) seems perverse, negativity for negativity's sake.

I'm not saying this isn't tempting! And in a game thread, I'll rant my absolute loathing of Drew's suckitude with the best of them. But this isn't a game thread. This is where we're supposed to be thinking clearly and making sense. And I'm not convinced that you are doing either.

Sometimes shit just "is"...........whether we want it to be, or not.

He's about to be 32, aren't the "Prime" player years(barring the exceptions) something like 25ish to 32ish?

Didn't we just see Damon all but wilt and he's only a year older?

It happens, and i'm guessing there's no specific Pecota algorithm that can correctly calculate "Aging"

if he sucks next year, who's going to be quoting Pecota again? And the year after that?

No one can prove either point right now.

"Parroting" Pecota is not PROOF, it's a projection that may or may not come true.

Lots of folks here like to cut and paste stats or projections and it gives them a false little "swagger" to their argument,
but i have a funny feeling that if you had to throw $1000 bet, based on that, and your little swagger
(a put your money where your mouth is kinda thing)
Suddenly those stats might not be so crystal clear........

I'd bet the $1000 if i believed strongly enough, but in this case, i'm not saying he will or won't do better,
i'm saying, and have continued to say, i don't want to find out at all.

[Imgran]

You'd be wrong about the aging thing.

Johnny Damon is a very different kind of player. If Drew's at his usual level he can deal with the decline of speed because the mostly gap power he's shown in Boston is usually a significant amount of home run power. Besides last time I checked his offensive numbers were fine other than a percipitous decline in SLG%. His big problem is that he can't both play center and stay healthy anymore.

I think the big thing for Drew is the shoulder surgery. Evidence in my favor was the fact that Theo was really worried about it at the start of the season and the fact that the shoulders are a big part of just about anyone's attempt to swing a baseball bat. I could easily see a bum shoulder (or even just a weakened shoulder) taking away both power and batspeed for far longer than Joe Ordinary could go back to work and do whatever he does normally.

I think that Theo signed Drew hoping that he'd be OK for this year but also remembering that the guy's going to be around for the whole contract -- he'll be better next year mostly because we have a pretty good baseline for how he'll perform when he's healthy that he's not old enough to deviate from yet, and if he is, then he's still worth the money even with the one bad year. Unless he is bad enough to be released outright or is so crippled he can't pretend to do his job anymore, we're in for the long haul on that contract

Edited by Imgran, 30 August 2007 - 11:38 PM.

[Therdrail]

You'd be wrong about the aging thing.

Johnny Damon is a very different kind of player. If Drew's at his usual level he can deal with the decline of speed because the mostly gap power he's shown in Boston is usually a significant amount of home run power. Besides last time I checked his offensive numbers were fine other than a percipitous decline in SLG%. His big problem is that he can't both play center and stay healthy anymore.

I think the big thing for Drew is the shoulder surgery. Evidence in my favor was the fact that Theo was really worried about it at the start of the season and the fact that the shoulders are a big part of just about anyone's attempt to swing a baseball bat. I could easily see a bum shoulder (or even just a weakened shoulder) taking away both power and batspeed for far longer than Joe Ordinary could go back to work and do whatever he does normally.

I think that Theo signed Drew hoping that he'd be OK for this year but also remembering that the guy's going to be around for the whole contract -- he'll be better next year mostly because we have a pretty good baseline for how he'll perform when he's healthy that he's not old enough to deviate from yet, and if he is, then he's still worth the money even with the one bad year. Unless he is bad enough to be released outright or is so crippled he can't pretend to do his job anymore, we're in for the long haul on that contract

i'm sure there is a component of aging in the projection, doesn't mean they actually get it right.......

I, again, don't disagree with you, but there is something more to all of this........ i firmly believe this.
While time will ultimately tell, and as i'm not an owner(yet), i doubt Theo and Co. are cruising this board looking for my input,
which means Drew will probably be back.

So suckitude aside, it will just be painful to watch my least favorite player ever hit every 9th time................

Hell, i'd rather watch the Bellhorn at his worst (and THAT was painful) than watch Drew

Edited by Therdrail, 31 August 2007 - 12:01 AM.

[dividius]

I find your ideas intriguing and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

I use this line all the time, and I never get tired of the non-Simpsons fans who just stare blankly. So I have to give props.

[ScubaSteveAvery]

And you are building a "wall of hope" that he will. One of us will be proven wrong, i'm just thinking the preferred scenario is him gone with the Sox picking up not too much of his salary.

This may be a semantics problem, but I don't necessarily "hope" he will do better. I rather think he will. The difference between two is simply that I have evidence that points me in that direction. And when you play odds in search of coming to the correct answer, you usually take the route where the evidence takes you. In this case, its that he will likely perform better next year.

We use same logic, but mine tells me he MIGHT NOT bounce back, yours tells you he MIGHT. Neither of us can be right as of now, so your stance is as preposterous as you believe mine to be.

So using statistical analysis and coming to a conclusion that he will likely perform better next year is preposterous now? You have given me absolutely no evidence to point to J.D. Drew performing at his current level for a prolonged period of time. So feel free to present something that lets me know where you are coming from and can back up your claims.

Yeah, Drew is going to run up to Bob ryan and admit he is unhappy(oh the irony), during the playoff push......If nothing else, he is a professional who goes with the party line.
He won't say anything bad until he's gone...you watch

Once again love these random claims that have zero credibility and validity to them.

Also, slick, what were the "PECOTA" projections for Drew this year?.....whats that? ....come again??
so far they are ..what?....they were.....WRONG??!!??!?!...........thought so..............

Ok, let me explain. Here is my deal with PECOTA. I use PECOTA projections as ballpark indicators of a players future numbers and production. What they project is sometimes wrong, but most likely it is in the ball park. If you know anything about the findings of the "Moneyball" approach, or what the folks at BP have discovered, it is that a player will usually emulate his career numbers over the course of his entire career, even if scouts dislike him. Our boy Dustin Pedroia is a walking example of this. He was consistantly told he was too small to play and scouts downgraded him for that. But right now, he is producing like he has his entire career. Its a beautiful thing to follow. Is he going to be right on all the time, heck no, but over his career, his numbers will reflect that of what he has always historically done. So back to PECOTA. The people who compute the projections compile all of Drews numbers over his entire professional career and use the algorithms and perform thousands of simulations to come up with the numbers. Thus, they usually average out at some point to the mean. This year, PECOTA projected Drew's EqA to be at .303. Not bad considering in the last three years his EqA has stood at .334, .320. and .299 respectively. Currently his EqA is at .255. So obviously way lower than projected. But here is the catch. PECOTA projected that his 10th percentile EqA was going to be .268. So even lower to where he is at now. This means that he was projected to have a 90% chance to post an EqA higher than where he currently sits, and a 10% chance to post something lower. For me, this season is clearly a statistical outlier in regards to his entire career. This point would be far lower on a regression analysis line, that you could easily consider it an outlier. If its an outlier, I really don't see that it holds much weight. There has been so much non-quantifiable stuff that has happened to Drew this year to further back up the claim that his seasons stats are an outlier (Moving accross the country, moving to a new league, his son having severe hip problems). So while the projections by PECOTA this year are more or less incorrect, they also explain how this season is a statistical outlier to his whole career (in regards to EqA). So there is where some of my evidence comes for believing that he will perform better next year. Also if you want to look at trends, every year he has finished the season with an EqA around where he is at now, he has a significant bounce back year the next season.

1st Trend
1999 EqA: .264
2000 EqA: .293
2001 EqA: .335

2nd Trend
2002 EqA: .276
2003 EqA: .300
2004 EqA: .334

He has bounced back twice in his career from EqA's that mirrored what he was doing this year. So I'm confident he will do it again.

Lots of folks here like to cut and paste stats or projections and it gives them a false little "swagger" to their argument

I don't think the stats and projections I just posted give my argument "swagger" but rather give it validity and standing. But I'm still waiting for your evidence for Drew being unhappy in Boston, and your evidence and reasons why bounce back next year.

Edited by Bosox33, 31 August 2007 - 12:35 AM.

[John DiFool]

Players tend to age, as a group, quite a bit more rapidly than we suspect. That's because the flukes, the Bondses/Nolan Ryans/Oroscos/Julio Francos of the world stick around in the public eye, while their peers are mostly long retired.

Checking Drew's Top 10 list going into his age 31 year: Fully half were done as championship quality ballplayers (which I arbitrarily defined as OPS+ larger than ~110 in a reasonably healthy season) by age 32. Only Jim Edmonds was any good/consistently healthy past age 34. Remember Bobby Higginson? 3 years after 78 extra base hits at age 29 he was down to an 86 OPS+ at age 32, and gone by age 34. Sure Drew bounced back before-when he was younger. One year he won't bounce back, just like these guys didn't. It's a very competitive, often cruel, sport.

Edited by John DiFool, 31 August 2007 - 12:46 AM.

[January]

Honestly, it's crap like this thread that causes friends of mine who are Yankee fans to ask me, "Why do you guys beat the hell out of your players instead of just taking things as they come?" Yeah, I know, all of New England has a massive case of penis envy because Harry Frazee sent most of the 1918 World Champion Red Sox to The Bronx to form the nucleus of the Yankee dynasty, and no true Red Sox fan can possibly admit that inferiority complex. Also, no matter how well the team is doing, it's always "our team sucks, and it's all because of Don Zimmer/our shitty starters/our shitty bullpen/that f-ing Jim Rice/Fat Billy from Ohio/Gump/Timlin/Drew" (among others). You'd think Boston fans would've learned not to crucify their players, but eveidently that isn't the case.

Drew's probably more upset about not producing than any fan thinks. However, to his credit, he's not an obnoxious jerk like Paul O'Neill, throwing helmets and bats after every mistake or ill-timed out. But instead of being grateful for that, some fans say the man doesn't have any heart. Nice.

It's in the nature of sports fans to blame players irrationally. And Drew has been well below expectations long enough that it's going from hyperbole to pattern. Heck, look at the flack A-Rod gets, and it's not like he's not producing!

So using statistical analysis and coming to a conclusion that he will likely perform better next year is preposterous now? You have given me absolutely no evidence to point to J.D. Drew performing at his current level for a prolonged period of time. So feel free to present something that lets me know where you are coming from and can back up your claims.

According to statistical analysis, he should be performing well now. I.e the PETCOA projections. The fact that he is not means there is some factor the projections don't know about. Therefore, the projections arn't valid, and can't really tell us anything about his future. I.e, he could have hit the 10% that he decline. There's no way to know.

In particular, injury is one of the few things that can cause a problem for this long, thus, he may not actually recover as people do not always bounce back 100%. He could recover, but he could not.

[Jensen_MVP58]

Why don't we all sign a petition promising to show up at Fenway and hold our breath until we turn blue or until they get rid of Drew?

The arrogant, spoiled behavior of some fans really turns me off to baseball, in general. Drew is having a horrid year at the plate in terms of clutch hitting and power production. On the plus side, he fields his position very well, is a good base runner with good speed for a big man, and has an OBP of .380. It's not worth $14 million, but it's about what I'd expect from Moss or what the Sox would have gotten if they'd thrown $3 million at Trot Nixon.

The only recent comparison I can think of is Tony Clark, who was brought in for the 2002 season to play 1st base. Clark was much worse than Drew, if that's possible -- his OBP was .265 and he slugged .290. Unlike Drew, his salary was only $5 million and only for one year. It's also interesting to note, that since Clark left Boston his hitting improved, even slugging 30 homers and batting .300 with the DBacks in 2005.

My advice... take a deep breath, stop acting like spoiled brats, forget for the rest of this season that Drew makes $14 million, and evaluate his performance using our much lowered set of expectations. Never expect him to get a clutch hit, but admire his outfield play, expect him to get on base close to 40% of the time, root for him to drive up the pitch count of opposing starters.

Drew will get better. Having horrid timing on off-speed pitches is something a hitter with his portfolio can do. We're not talking about an aging slugger that can no longer get around on a fastball. Drew will never be an impact player, because he was never one before he came to Boston, but he can be a very good complementary player. And remember that Tony Freakin Clark hit 30 homers in 2005.

[theemerald33]

I bring this up because I'm sick to death of Red Sox "fans" talking shit about players, saying so-and-so sucks because "his numbers suck." Yet, many of those same people rant about how their bosses ride their asses all day long for having bad production numbers. The irony is obvious, as is the hypocrisy.

Honestly, it's crap like this thread that causes friends of mine who are Yankee fans to ask me, "Why do you guys beat the hell out of your players instead of just taking things as they come?" Yeah, I know, all of New England has a massive case of penis envy because Harry Frazee sent most of the 1918 World Champion Red Sox to The Bronx to form the nucleus of the Yankee dynasty, and no true Red Sox fan can possibly admit that inferiority complex. Also, no matter how well the team is doing, it's always "our team sucks, and it's all because of Don Zimmer/our shitty starters/our shitty bullpen/that f-ing Jim Rice/Fat Billy from Ohio/Gump/Timlin/Drew" (among others). You'd think Boston fans would've learned not to crucify their players, but eveidently that isn't the case.

Are you kidding me? I live in New York and the whole offseason Yankee fans were killing A-Rod. They were calling for him to be traded. You can argue your point all you want about how you hate how Red Sox fans act but don't tell me other fans don't act the same especially MFY fans.

[Foulkey Reese]

Are you kidding me? I live in New York and the whole offseason Yankee fans were killing A-Rod. They were calling for him to be traded. You can argue your point all you want about how you hate how Red Sox fans act but don't tell me other fans don't act the same especially MFY fans.

Other then the complaining on message boards, I think Sox fans have been excellent this year when it's come to struggling players. People were actually cheering for Lugo when he was 0-30 or whatever, and as bad as Drew's been he hasn't heard anywhere near the amount of boos that post season heros Mark Bellhorn and Keith Foulke heard. Obviously being in 1st place most of the season plays a big part in that, but I still think Sox fans have shown a good amount of restraint.

[John DiFool]

On the plus side, he fields his position very well, is a good base runner with good speed for a big man, and has an OBP of .380.

His OBP is .357, not .380. That is the only thing which he is doing which helps the team. I've always been a big proponent of a high OBP, but this season helps to demonstrate why slugging is also important. He has 46 RBIs in 5/6th of a full season, batting in back of a bunch of guys who get on base around 40% of the time, and that's abysmal. [I don't have his RBIs/opportunities, but it has to be pathetic. Yeah I know about 100 or so PAs hitting leadoff, but still...]

I guess you didn't see the double by Abreu in ther 8th, where Drew seemed to be running in slow motion. Sure that's a ball that only maybe 10% of ML RFers get to, but in the field he has definitely lost a step. Zone Rating agrees: .832, 17th in the majors among qualified RFers; remember all those loopers which have fallen in front of him? He only has one assist, with 5 errors (Jeff Francoeur has 18). For a RF playing in Fenway for a contending team that's awful.

Players often get old in their early 30's, and it looks like that's what's happening here. I just hope that his contract doesn't prevent some actual good players from being signed by the Sox in the next few years.

[Therdrail]

This may be a semantics problem, but I don't necessarily "hope" he will do better. I rather think he will. The difference between two is simply that I have evidence that points me in that direction. And when you play odds in search of coming to the correct answer, you usually take the route where the evidence takes you. In this case, its that he will likely perform better next year.

We can agree to disagree, but YOU don't have evidence, you've read someone else's work, and you buy into it, even though you just admit how wrong Pecota can be. Thats fine, thats your choice.
The above states that YOU would "play the odds" with the "evidence", but, and here's a BIG but, when you look at Pecota projections, and you see what his past stats were, do they show what the projection was, compared to what the actual performances were, year by year ? To show, year by year, how right or wrong they were in their projections of this guy??? I'd certainly be curious as clearly, there has to be some players that defy the "odds" one way or another, year after year.

So using statistical analysis and coming to a conclusion that he will likely perform better next year is preposterous now? You have given me absolutely no evidence to point to J.D. Drew performing at his current level for a prolonged period of time. So feel free to present something that lets me know where you are coming from and can back up your claims.

No, but claiming you are right, in a scenario where it is all about what the future will bring, would be as preposterous as if i was claiming i was right.
Unless of course you CAN actually see into the future. My point has always been the same, i don't care what the projections are for JD Drew,
i don't want him here next year.

Once again love these random claims that have zero credibility and validity to them.

Again, Drew is nothing if not a professional, he does and says the right things. He won't say anything to rock the boat.
Even i appreciate this. If you really feel a need to be so obtuse about this one point, then i'll say that clearly he is unhappy and has admitted it
in the paper. The "unhappiness" is currently only (outwardly) directed toward himself, BUT HE ADMITTED BEING UNHAPPY.
Is that enough for you?
Do YOU really think a guy who has acted this professionally would speak up mid season on how unhappy he is playing somewhere.
Do you pay attention, AT ALL, bro?

Ok, let me explain. Here is my deal with PECOTA. I use PECOTA projections as ballpark indicators of a players future numbers and production. What they project is sometimes wrong, but most likely it is in the ball park. If you know anything about the findings of the "Moneyball" approach, or what the folks at BP have discovered, it is that a player will usually emulate his career numbers over the course of his entire career, even if scouts dislike him. Our boy Dustin Pedroia is a walking example of this. He was consistantly told he was too small to play and scouts downgraded him for that. But right now, he is producing like he has his entire career. Its a beautiful thing to follow. Is he going to be right on all the time, heck no, but over his career, his numbers will reflect that of what he has always historically done. So back to PECOTA. The people who compute the projections compile all of Drews numbers over his entire professional career and use the algorithms and perform thousands of simulations to come up with the numbers. Thus, they usually average out at some point to the mean. This year, PECOTA projected Drew's EqA to be at .303. Not bad considering in the last three years his EqA has stood at .334, .320. and .299 respectively. Currently his EqA is at .255. So obviously way lower than projected. But here is the catch. PECOTA projected that his 10th percentile EqA was going to be .268. So even lower to where he is at now. This means that he was projected to have a 90% chance to post an EqA higher than where he currently sits, and a 10% chance to post something lower. For me, this season is clearly a statistical outlier in regards to his entire career. This point would be far lower on a regression analysis line, that you could easily consider it an outlier. If its an outlier, I really don't see that it holds much weight. There has been so much non-quantifiable stuff that has happened to Drew this year to further back up the claim that his seasons stats are an outlier (Moving accross the country, moving to a new league, his son having severe hip problems). So while the projections by PECOTA this year are more or less incorrect, they also explain how this season is a statistical outlier to his whole career (in regards to EqA). So there is where some of my evidence comes for believing that he will perform better next year. Also if you want to look at trends, every year he has finished the season with an EqA around where he is at now, he has a significant bounce back year the next season.

1st Trend
1999 EqA: .264
2000 EqA: .293
2001 EqA: .335

2nd Trend
2002 EqA: .276
2003 EqA: .300
2004 EqA: .334

He has bounced back twice in his career from EqA's that mirrored what he was doing this year. So I'm confident he will do it again.
I don't think the stats and projections I just posted give my argument "swagger" but rather give it validity and standing. But I'm still waiting for your evidence for Drew being unhappy in Boston, and your evidence and reasons why bounce back next year.

OK, i get it, you buy into that, in an unwavering kinda way.
Is it beyond you that someone else could read the same thing, and using it and other things decide that they DON'T buy into it?
Or is anyone who doesn't think like you an idiot.

Just because i'm not parroting a stat that can disprove a stat that you parroted doesn't mean i'll be proven wrong.
(and no, i'm not coming up with metrics or algorithms myself, don't have the time or interest)
It doesn't of course, mean i'll be proven right.

I've seen enough stats and projections, and seen him play enough to form the opinion that he's NOT ever going to be "as advertised"....
It's my opinion, and i'm comfortable waiting it out and let time actually prove or disprove it.
Though i'd really rather him gone if at any way possible.

[threecy]

I was not a big fan of his signing (especially after seeing Nixon go away for a fraction of the salary). That said, it makes no sense to dump him (just like it made no sense to dump Renteria, who was injured his only year in Boston and has been outperforming our shortstops ever since) at a loss. If some team comes knocking and makes it worthwhile? Sure. Odds of that happening? Less than 1% right now.

It's too bad we can't see another side of JD Drew - as lax has he seems on the field, he hasn't pulled some of the crap Manny has pulled over the years. Manny, while making up for it with his production, also has balanced it out by showing is jovial side. Give the fans something they can like! Do something off the field locally to win them over, or do something on the field - show some emotion, charge the mound next time Joba pitches, something! Get them on your side and they will tolerate your struggles. Trot Nixon could struggle because the fans knew that he was putting his heart into the game and wasn't afraid to get into a brawl. Dustin Pedroia was able to struggle in part because he hustles and puts a lot of effort into what he does.

Again, don't dump him. If, however, we he's bad next year and we have someone in the minors who can take his place, it's a no brainer (the sub $1M salary for a few years combined with however much of Drew's contract the Sox would eat would average out to still quite a bargain).

[SoxFanInTheSouth]

This is, without a doubt, the most stat obsessed group of people I have ever seen. All of the numbers in this thread are making me dizzy.

Here is the bottom line, forget his average, home runs, and RBIs. I want him to start contributing to win games, plain and simple. He can hit .260 all day long if he will give us a few game winning RBIs, or clutch hits, or productive outs. That is what winners do. He can hit .500 in at bats where the outcome of the game has already been decided and pad his stats but it is absolutely meaningless. To a certain extent, Manny Ramirez has some of the same problems.

Trot Nixon could have an awful year, and even an awful post season, but he did hit the walk off against Oakland in '03 and he did get a base hit against Gordon on the hit and run play in Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS and he did come up in the clutch several times to help us win games. Bill Mueller, we all know the clutch hits he had. Most likely everyone will agree that J.D. Drew is overall a better player than Nixon or Mueller, but that doesn't do us any good. There is probably more, but the only two games I remember Drew winning for us was at Arizona, then at Atlanta.

You can quote me lines and lines of stats all day long, but if he won't come through in the clutch in the regular season, is he going to do it in the playoffs? You can tell me all day long he is hitting .280 during some time frame, but are you confident he is going to produce when the chips are down in the playoffs? When Nixon, Mueller, and Varitek and those guys were up to hit in those situations, I had confidence that they would do it. I don't with Drew, I have zero confidence.

The good part is Drew still has time to get the confidence back of the fan base and his team. He needs to start helping us win games here in the most important month of the season. He needs to stop going 1-11 in Yankees series where we have injuries and are short handed. He needs to stop taking third strikes with RISP in close games in the 7th inning or later. He doesn't have to have out of this world stats either, he can help by moving runners over, start hitting the ball the other way and using the Green Monster.

Take yesterday for an example. If you are scuffling and not having a good series and you come up in the 7th inning with 1st and 2nd and no outs, maybe you should think about laying down a bunt to move the runners over. Is that such a crazy idea? I was praying that Tito would force him to lay one down but he didn't.

People associate him with having no heart and not caring a lot of times because he disappears in crucial big games and crucial big at bats. We don't know the guy personally, all we can judge him by is what we see on the field.

[FenwayGreen42184]

When I saw this thread I cracked up.

Honestly, I think drew will be better next year. I think the real problem is that drew is an ideal #2 or #6 Hitter because he walks so much and doesn't know when to take the bat off his shoulder.

When you hit fifth in the Red Sox lineup, you are seeing the best pitches of anyone in the lineup besides the two-hole hitter. You are often hitting with runners on base and in scoring position.

Answer this: How is Drew supposed to get those runs in if he's going up to bat trying to walk every time!?

He just needs to be moved to another spot in the lineup. That's the problem.... That and he needs to start hitting for more power while attempting to lower his number of backwards Ks.

[Savin Hillbilly]

This is, without a doubt, the most stat obsessed group of people I have ever seen. All of the numbers in this thread are making me dizzy.

There's a simple reason for this. Numbers win ballgames.

Nobody ever won a game by a score of "Wicked Clutch-No Balls." Last time I checked, the scores were usually in a form like "9-6" or "2-0" or similar.

And there is an observed relationship between individual statistics and the scoring or prevention of runs. It's not perfectly understood and there are still plenty of arguments and gray areas, but to say "Here is the bottom line, forget his average, home runs, and RBIs. I want him to start contributing to win games, plain and simple," to me that's like saying, "forget his blood pressure and pulse and electrolytes. I want to know how he's doing, Doc." Emotionally understandable, maybe, but fundamentally irrational. The numbers *are* his contribution to winning games--or his lack thereof.

Numbers have their limits. They are certainly no substitute for the irreplaceable joy of watching a baseball game, and at the point where people would rather spend an hour at BBref than in front of a NESN broadcast, I part company with them. But stats are indispensable if we're trying to figure out the relative value of a player or the relative likelihood of his current performance continuing, which is what this thread is about.

[Andrew]

This is, without a doubt, the most stat obsessed group of people I have ever seen. All of the numbers in this thread are making me dizzy.

Here is the bottom line, forget his average, home runs, and RBIs. I want him to start contributing to win games, plain and simple.

This is one of the most fantastically stupid arguments I've ever heard. I'm not a great numbers guy. I could never come up with this stuff myself. It is a struggle for me to research and figure out what some of the stats people come up with are based on and what they mean. But I do it. I do it because I understand that statistical evidence can be a valuable resource in understanding a deeper meaning within the game of baseball. Not the be-all-end-all, but certainly a hugely important asset.

Basically you are saying that you know, based on your anecdotal observations, that a player is bad and will always be bad. Your argument has the built in excuse of "I don't care about contrary proof, numbers are meaningless!" so in your own little world no one can ever prove you wrong. I could show you that, in 2004, despite his one big hit Bill Mueller was one of the worst players in MLB in "clutchiness". I could explain to you that, despite Trot Nixon getting on base in a couple key spots, Nixon's inability to get it done with regularity hurt the team. I could explain to you that the human mind naturally remembers only the good things about people we like and only the bad things about people we don't. However, you already told me that you don't care about any evidence. What you saw is what you saw and there's nothing anyone can do to dissuade you.

Basically, you started your argument by stating you'll suffer no disagreement. You are, therefore, contributing absolutely nothing to discussion and are wasting everyone's time.

Edited by Andrew, 31 August 2007 - 10:32 AM.

[Therdrail]

There's a simple reason for this. Numbers win ballgames.

Nobody ever won a game by a score of "Wicked Clutch-No Balls." Last time I checked, the scores were usually in a form like "9-6" or "2-0" or similar.

Sorry dude, baseball players, i.e. human beings, win or lose ball games.
Whether you believe it or not there are aspects of the "human condition" that stats and projections just can't nail.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Sorry dude, baseball players, i.e. human beings, win or lose ball games.
Whether you believe it or not there are aspects of the "human condition" that stats and projections just can't nail.

Baseball players win or lose ball games by accumulating more numbers than other baseball players.

That better?

[January]

Sorry dude, baseball players, i.e. human beings, win or lose ball games.
Whether you believe it or not there are aspects of the "human condition" that stats and projections just can't nail.

While it is true that there are aspects of the game not captured by numbers, that does not make the numbers irrelevent, just incomplete. On can capture clutch-ness to a degree with WPA(no surprise, Papi was one of the all time leaders in this catagory till this year. )

The thing is, clutch hitting almost always has small sample size effects, as most players don't get many opportunities. A little good or bad luck in the right spots goes along way.

[SoxFanInTheSouth]

There's a simple reason for this. Numbers win ballgames.

Nobody ever won a game by a score of "Wicked Clutch-No Balls." Last time I checked, the scores were usually in a form like "9-6" or "2-0" or similar.

And there is an observed relationship between individual statistics and the scoring or prevention of runs. It's not perfectly understood and there are still plenty of arguments and gray areas, but to say "Here is the bottom line, forget his average, home runs, and RBIs. I want him to start contributing to win games, plain and simple," to me that's like saying, "forget his blood pressure and pulse and electrolytes. I want to know how he's doing, Doc." Emotionally understandable, maybe, but fundamentally irrational. The numbers *are* his contribution to winning games--or his lack thereof.

Numbers have their limits. They are certainly no substitute for the irreplaceable joy of watching a baseball game, and at the point where people would rather spend an hour at BBref than in front of a NESN broadcast, I part company with them. But stats are indispensable if we're trying to figure out the relative value of a player or the relative likelihood of his current performance continuing, which is what this thread is about.

Stats can be as deceiving as they are true indicators. The fact that Manny Ramirez leads in 'GW RBIs' is more than enough of an example to prove that. The suckitude of JD Drew is clearly there for the world to see but all I see is a dizzying display of numbers claiming whatever argument they feel like making. You can gather stats from any group of games in a 162 game season and make anyone look like an All-Star.

I look at JD Drew and see 1-11 for this past Yankees series when we needed him the most (Manny being injured) and 6-44 for the year vs the Yankees.

[Man-Ram4life]

What are you guys talking about, JD Drew is the man. WWJDDD?