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Wily Mo traded for Chris Carter


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#1 Guest_Corsi Combover_*

Posted 20 August 2007 - 10:57 PM

I don't really know why the other thread was closed, and I feel that there's more discussion to be had, so here goes..

I've been told that the PTBN (Penguin To Be Nippy? Phillie To Be (a) National?) in the Pena deal is not on the major league roster right now, and it most certainly is not Colome. This from sources with knowledge of the deal. I have confirmed that Carter will go to Boston eventually, which, as I mentioned, was first reported in The Boston Globe over the weekend.

Source: http://blog.washingt...hat_theory.html

So, where does Carter play into this team's future plans? Will he be in the mix next season due to the possible departure of Mike Lowell?

#2 philly sox fan


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Posted 20 August 2007 - 11:06 PM

So, where does Carter play into this team's future plans? Will he be in the mix next season due to the possible departure of Mike Lowell?


Last year Epstein very publicly stated that improving the outfield defense was critically important. That, of course, directly lead to the Drew signing and pushed Pena (eventually) out the door.

That problem (sort of) solved now the Sox appear to have some offensive problems that the 70M RF aren't really helping. Does this then push the Sox to weaken the defense and make a commitment to Carter at the expense of quality defense at 1B and 3B?

It has a depressing wheel spinning feel to it.

I like the Carter acquisition. It's a smart, small transaction "win" very much analogous to the Wells/Kottaras deal last year. I'm not sure this one will have much more of an impact.

#3 paulftodd


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 01:06 AM

So, where does Carter play into this team's future plans? Will he be in the mix next season due to the possible departure of Mike Lowell?


Guess they will give him a chance in ST if they can not sign Lowell for 2 years.

Hard to judge players coming over from the PCL and he has played in a hitters park in Tucson, but he sounds like a decent hitter. I shudder at the thought of this guy playing 1B for the Red Sox, from all accounts he is a poor defender, and Youk at 3B would also be a slight downgrade defensively. WMP hit his 2nd HR in as many nights, maybe if he plays well we can get something better?

#4 E5 Yaz


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 01:27 AM

Don't know if this has been covered, but WMP was gracious on his way to D.C.:

http://redsox.boston...ticleid=1018183

“To my sisters, brothers and fans of the Red Sox [team stats]Nation. I want to take a moment to thank you and the entire Red Sox organization for your support during my time in Boston. Your constant passion for baseball and your beloved Red Sox is unmatched and has touched me deeply. I will always consider you with a special place in my heart.
“The Red Sox organization deserves only the best and the Red Sox Nation is just that. Peace in life, Wily Modesto Pena.”



#5 MentalDisabldLst


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 01:38 AM

Don't know if this has been covered, but WMP was gracious on his way to D.C.:


I realize it's trite and formulaic and probably written by his agent, but it's always nice to see an MLB player who shows gratitude on his way out the door. It's that they don't have to that makes it kinda nice. For Damon, Foulke and others, it was probably all they had to do to secure a soft spot in the hearts of many who they were spurning or had once spurned.

We always knew Wily was a good kid. It'll hurt just a little to see him continue to mash homers over in the NL. (seriously, 2 in his first 3 games? that's almost kapleresque)

#6 Rooster Crows

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 03:14 AM

Don't know if this has been covered, but WMP was gracious on his way to D.C.:

http://redsox.boston...ticleid=1018183


I was going to post the same thing. Shows a lot of class for a kid who was mostly criticized but never trash talked the fans or media while here. He had been so eager to learn from Papi and Manny when he first arrived - not to splooge, but all the best Wily Mo. Here's hoping the PTBNL will be a better fit for the team's actual needs.

#7 Eddie Jurak


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 05:38 AM

I like the Carter acquisition. It's a smart, small transaction "win" very much analogous to the Wells/Kottaras deal last year. I'm not sure this one will have much more of an impact.

Would letting Lowell go, to be replaced by Carter and Lowrie, be a bold move or a stupid one?

#8 Clears Cleaver


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 05:59 AM

Why would Lowell be the one who would go and not Youkilis? I think you have to upgrade 1B offensively as much or more than 3B. Unless it is ARod, Lowell sems the best bet, unless you want to move Youks back there.

#9 Sille Skrub

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 06:20 AM

Don't know if this has been covered, but WMP was gracious on his way to D.C.:

Very classy gesture by WMP. I was hoping it would work out for him here, but I will be watching and wish him well for the future.

#10 URI


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 07:14 AM

Why would Lowell be the one who would go and not Youkilis? I think you have to upgrade 1B offensively as much or more than 3B. Unless it is ARod, Lowell sems the best bet, unless you want to move Youks back there.


Because one is over 30 and making $9 million this year and the other is under 30 and making $430k.

They'll probably look to upgrade either 1b or 3b, with Youkilis sliding into the other spot unless Lowell comes back on the cheap.

#11 yecul


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 08:29 AM

Last I saw the potential market for 1B/3B was thin next year, so maybe they will try to repeat 2003 and bring in a handful of players and let it sort itself out. Carter can be in that mix as a 1B vs RHP type. Find a RH who can play 1B and corner OF and/or 3B and you are in good shape. Youkilis slots in at 3B and some 1B.

Lowell should be looking to get as much as he can this offseason and I don't expect Boston to be the team offering it.

#12 TomRicardo


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 08:38 AM

Would letting Lowell go, to be replaced by Carter and Lowrie, be a bold move or a stupid one?


Lowrie hasn't been a better offensive player than Carter since they played together at Stanford. I much rather have Carter at first than Lowrie at third which he hasn't played professionally once. Lowrie is good hitting middle infielder. Carter is a good hitter. Carter could probably be an offensive upgrade to Youkilis at first base.

#13 GreyisGone

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 08:41 AM

Do you really want to platoon 2 first baseman? With Ortiz already on the roster, that seems like a complete waste of resources. I'd be shocked if Carter ever sees regular playing time for the Red Sox.

#14 InsideTheParker


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:01 AM

Going back to WMP: If he is still hitting at this rate in about a month, do we conclude
A) NL pitching coaches can't/don't read scouting reports,
B) Magadan stinks (Papi needs to consult with Papa Jack, for instance),
C) You fill in the blanks.

#15 Bowlerman9


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:08 AM

Going back to WMP: If he is still hitting at this rate in about a month, do we conclude
A) NL pitching coaches can't/don't read scouting reports,
B) Magadan stinks (Papi needs to consult with Papa Jack, for instance),
C) You fill in the blanks.


C) WMP is a very good and potentially great hitter when he gets regular playing time.

The stats can show this to be true.

#16 Scott Cooper

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:15 AM

WMP is a good player, but I think being back in the NL will make him a masher once again.

#17 InsideTheParker


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:17 AM

C) WMP is a very good and potentially great hitter when he gets regular playing time.

The stats can show this to be true.


So, I guess back-to-back games constitute "regular playing time" as he hit immediately for the Nats and has continued to hit. I wish that game logs detailed the type of pitch he got to hit. If he is hitting breaking balls forHRs, then I am very interested in that.

#18 Grubbery

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:21 AM

It's also worth noting that the D-Backs have worked this kid at both 1B and LF. My understanding is that they felt he needed to focus on one or the other, so they settled on 1B due to organizational fit and Carter's experience (i.e. he didn't "suck" in LF). It will be interesting to see if the Sox have him play LF exclusively in winter ball, and spend another season in AAA in order to groom him as a Manny replacement (positionally, obviously, not in terms of production).

Edited by Grubbery, 21 August 2007 - 09:22 AM.


#19 Bucknahs Bum Ankle


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:21 AM

WMP won't continue hitting at this rate in month, so its not even worth discussing if that's the standard of success. However, we do know that they throw less breaking pitches in the NL and those are the ones that WMP can't hit. That and a combination of regular at bats and perhaps being reinvigorated by the trade will help him peform better than we saw here. Also, Mark Yankees 1Bman whose name I can't spell is a very good hitter but not as good as his first few weeks in Atlanta would lead you to believe (9 HR in 18 games). I'm guessing the league will catch up with WMP again within a couple of weeks and he'll continue to underperfom his potential over the long haul. Maybe in a couple years he could have a resurgence with regular at bats, but even the dominican winter league pitchers seem to have figured him out so I'm not betting on it.

#20 PedroKsBambino


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:32 AM

Of course, the stats don't show that WMP will be an impact hitter if he plays regularly..he's gotten regular playing time in his career and hasn't ever been an impact hitter, save for when he is able to put up a .400ish BABIP. Of course, every single player in organized baseball projects to being a very good hitter if they can actually sustain that BABIP level, too. He has power, he's interesting, he has upside...but the probability these things come together seem to be overstated quite often, too.

He certainly may be a valuable hitter if he plays regularly but the stats do not show this in any reliable way, imo. It's a theory that has some grounding but nothing approaching a reasonable level of confidence, seems to me.

#21 The Allented Mr Ripley


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:35 AM

This is a guy who hit a HR every 15.3 PA in 2004 and 2005 (45 HR in 689 PA). If given enough playing time, I fully expect him to match that rate.

The Sox couldn't provide that time, and he serves no purpose as bench player (can't PH, PR or be a defensive substitution), so I don't have a problem with him being traded. He probably never should have been acquired in the first place, not because giving Arroyo up was too much -- it wasn't -- but because the club should have known there'd be no place for him.

But if he hits 35 HR next year, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised.

#22 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:43 AM

It's been all of ELEVEN at bats. Why are we talking about "if he can keep this up over the next month?" It's a ludicrously small sample size to be making any judgments about.

Great for WMP that he's got a few dingers for his new team. We all know full well he's got great power. I like the guy and think he's going to be a contributor for them down the road. But why does that suddenly turn us into a bunch of Bob Lobel clones?

Let's see how the Nats like his defense (an abomination here) and see how the league pitches to him upon his return to the NL. His HR last night came on a fastball right over the heart of the plate.

#23 Todd Benzinger

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:52 AM

I checked the pitches he hit last night on gameday, hoping to see that he's hit breaking pitches.... Best I could tell, he was hitting 88 MPH "fastballs" over the heart of the plate.

He did get an IBB, though!

Someone on SoSH posted his stats on the 2nd+ consecutive day, and they were very soild, so yes, two days in a row constitues "regular PT" for Wily Mo.

#24 JimD

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:52 AM

Why should anyone be surprised that Wily Mo has relaxed and hit a few home runs - the external pressure disappeared once he was traded from playoff-contending Boston to going-nowhere Washington. If he strikes out, who cares? Some guys just aren't cut out for this market.

#25 XNOUGHT


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:53 AM

And he is going from the AL to the NL. Don't underestimate that effect right there.

Big Tex looks out of this world in the NL right now.

#26 TomRicardo


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 09:58 AM

Why should anyone be surprised that Wily Mo has relaxed and hit a few home runs - the external pressure disappeared once he was traded from playoff-contending Boston to going-nowhere Washington. If he strikes out, who cares? Some guys just aren't cut out for this market.


I don't think the pressure has anything to do with it. Maybe having some at bats against some weak pitchers did.

#27 Bowlerman9


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 10:10 AM

Why should anyone be surprised that Wily Mo has relaxed and hit a few home runs - the external pressure disappeared once he was traded from playoff-contending Boston to going-nowhere Washington. If he strikes out, who cares? Some guys just aren't cut out for this market.


The only pressure WMP faced was the pressure to face a pitcher in the 9th inning of a 8-2 game or to start a game after eating pine for 6 days. There are a lot of people who arent cut out for being a pinch hitter and spot starter. Some need regular work (Daubach comes to mind), some believe they should play every day (why did we sign Jay Payton?), and there are probably other reasons too.

WMP was expected to perform in a situation that wasnt right for him. Thats the only real pressure he faced.

#28 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 10:11 AM

I could really care less what WMP does for Washington, it's fairly irrelevant. He's likely going to hit a bunch of homeruns and play crappy defense there, and it doesn't really matter. His role there isn't what it was here. I'm not really surprised that he might start off really hot, it happens all the time when guys switch teams (Bernard Gilkey, Josh Bard, Gabe Kapler...they all say hi). Trading Arroyo for him was a gamble, one worth taking, it didn't necessarily work out but what's done is done. The team has more flexibility right now with Kielty and the kid they got for him is at least intriguing. Might as well wish Wily Mo success, he's likely to do well as he's more comfortable, in a role more suited for him, and likely to see more fastballs. Best of luck to him; I don't think his future success or failure really reflects on the Red Sox organization at all. He was pretty good for the Sox last year; he just wasn't well suited to the 07 team or the team going forward.

#29 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 10:13 AM

I don't think the pressure has anything to do with it. Maybe having some at bats against some weak pitchers did.

If we're going to continue this exercise going forward, it will be well worth noting his fielding in Washington.

Last time someone posted them, I think WMP was on pace for a -80 UZR rating in Boston. For some perspective, that's twice as poor a rating as Manny. That's historically bad. He will need to improve that aspect of his game or else the Nats will trade him next year to the AL to DH.

#30 OrangeSox

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 10:26 AM

Not to change the subject, but the Wily Mo horse has been beaten to death already. I know very little about Chris Carter. Anyone have a scouting report/summary of what we can expect from him? I take it he's young. What sort of player does he project to? I am hearing that he's below average-average defensively at first and is probably a ~20 HR .350 OBP kinda guy. Is this true? Any info greatly appreciated.

#31 LondonSox

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 10:33 AM

This is a guy who hit a HR every 15.3 PA in 2004 and 2005 (45 HR in 689 PA). If given enough playing time, I fully expect him to match that rate.

The Sox couldn't provide that time, and he serves no purpose as bench player (can't PH, PR or be a defensive substitution), so I don't have a problem with him being traded. He probably never should have been acquired in the first place, not because giving Arroyo up was too much -- it wasn't -- but because the club should have known there'd be no place for him.

But if he hits 35 HR next year, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised.


I 100% endorse this post. WMP is a hitter that will do well when he gets regular time. He was a bad trade because the Sox knew he needed development time and didn't have any way to give it to him. Hence foolish.

I really really love this pool table, and I love pool but I have a tiny house and it takes up the whole room. I still love pool and the table but it's bloody useless in my house, should never have bought it. Meanwhile all my friends with house know it was stupid and I'll have to sell it so I lose money on it, despite it having the same value before and after my purchase.

Even more so why now? Did the Sox really need someone else for a week before the rosters expanded? Was this Chris Carter guy all we thought you could get for him in a full offseason to trade. If not bad move, if so good move. I know not much about this CC chap.

#32 behindthepen


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 11:01 AM

Not to change the subject, but the Wily Mo horse has been beaten to death already. I know very little about Chris Carter. Anyone have a scouting report/summary of what we can expect from him? I take it he's young. What sort of player does he project to? I am hearing that he's below average-average defensively at first and is probably a ~20 HR .350 OBP kinda guy. Is this true? Any info greatly appreciated.

I thought he was the subject?!?!?!?!
from rotowire.com:

2/20/2007
Carter had surgery over the offseason to remove the hamate bone and some torn cartilage in his right wrist, the Arizona Republic reports. Carter could be a decent prospect in many organizations, but he's going to have a hard time displacing Conor Jackson with the Diamondbacks.


Sheet1
Year Age* Lg Tm AVG OBP SLG OPS G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BB% BB/K CT % BABIP
2005 22 A Lan .296 .370 .522 .892 103 412 122 26 2 21 85 0 0 46 66 0.1 0.7 0.84 0.311
2005 22 AA TEN .297 .401 .563 .964 36 128 38 4 0 10 30 0 3 20 11 0.14 1.82 0.91 0.262
2006 23 AAA TUC .301 .395 .483 .878 136 509 153 30 3 19 97 10 4 78 69 0.13 1.13 0.86 0.318
2007 24 AAA TUC .327 .386 .525 .911 125 499 163 39 3 18 84 2 0 50 67 0.09 0.75 0.87 0.35
Year Age* Lg Tm AVG OBP SLG OPS G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BB% BB/K CT % BABIP

edit: added emphasis on surgery ... thought that was relevant.

Edited by behindthepen, 21 August 2007 - 12:08 PM.


#33 InsideTheParker


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 11:13 AM

I checked the pitches he hit last night on gameday, hoping to see that he's hit breaking pitches.... Best I could tell, he was hitting 88 MPH "fastballs" over the heart of the plate.

Thanks. This is the kind of info I was looking for.
I was only puzzled that a cagy pitcher like El Duque would not know how to pitch to WMP. Gameday shows that the Hernandez pitch Pena hit was right in the middle of the plate, but I can't figure out the speed or break from the info given. Where do you find the velocity and type of the pitch?


(By the way, I am not at all playing "Bob Lobel." I thought WMP was a poor fit for the Sox from the beginning, as I remembered how brutal he was playing right field when the Reds visited a few years ago, and our DH position was filled.)

#34 SoxFanSince57


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 11:18 AM

So, I guess back-to-back games constitute "regular playing time" as he hit immediately for the Nats and has continued to hit. I wish that game logs detailed the type of pitch he got to hit. If he is hitting breaking balls forHRs, then I am very interested in that.


Agreed. Here is another option.

D. The NL is a pathetic, fastball-only league and where scouts don't know s***

Also, it is easier to see why Drew is having a tough time adjusting to the AL.

What Rudy said.......

Trading Arroyo for him was a gamble, one worth taking, it didn't necessarily work out but what's done is done. The team has more flexibility right now with Kielty and the kid they got for him is at least intriguing. Might as well wish Wily Mo success, he's likely to do well as he's more comfortable, in a role more suited for him, and likely to see more fastballs. Best of luck to him; I don't think his future success or failure really reflects on the Red Sox organization at all.


Edited by SoxFanSince57, 21 August 2007 - 11:23 AM.


#35 JimD

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 11:28 AM

I 100% endorse this post. WMP is a hitter that will do well when he gets regular time. He was a bad trade because the Sox knew he needed development time and didn't have any way to give it to him. Hence foolish.


Whether or not the Sox brass thought WMP needed additional development time (and I'm not convinced they did - I think they accurately figured that he was what we was), I'm sure they acquired him because they thought he could contribute at the major league level. I believe they figured he'd at least get regular PA's in 2006 subbing for Trot, Coco, Manny and Papi (and provide insurance in case one of the big sluggers got hurt), and that hopefully he'd break out and play himself into the mix for 2007 and beyond. His upside failed to materialize, so the team likely decided to go in another direction last winter and only held onto Pena this long to try and maximize his trade value.

#36 bowiac


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 12:00 PM

Anyone yet hear an explanation for how the Nationals are getting Carter in the first place?

Also, with regards to Carter, keep in mind his numbers this year are in the PCL. His MLEs are likely to be pretty mediocre.

#37 Guest_Corsi Combover_*

Posted 21 August 2007 - 12:02 PM

Anyone yet hear an explanation for how the Nationals are getting Carter in the first place?

Sounds like Arizona is going to get some relief help from Washington. Someone off of their 40-man roster.

#38 LynnRoyalRooter

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 12:07 PM

Huge H/R splits as is the case with many Dbacks/PCL prospects

About 250 ABs for each here for 2007
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
295/354/456/810 , 23/46 K/BB - Road
355/414/591/1005 , 27/22 K/BB - Home

So this performace needs to be taken with a grain of salt. I wouldn't imagine that he would hit that many HRs at Fenway as a left handed hitter also.

He has some interesting PECOTA comparables if you are into that kind of thing with Todd Helton (1998) as his number 1 comp and one David Ortiz (2000) at number 16

16 errors at 1B also - that leaves a lot to be desired.

Edited by LynnRoyalRooter, 21 August 2007 - 12:18 PM.


#39 Maalox


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 12:13 PM

Pena wasn't even in the AL for two seasons, and he sucked. By the reckoning of some here, he didn't get enough PT in the AL to properly "develop." Now he's not "going to the NL" - he's going back to the NL, where he hit badly for several seasons. Therefore I have trouble believing he's going to go back there and show substantive improvement, let alone immediate substantive improvement.

You can't say on the one hand that he didn't get a chance to develop with the Red Sox and then imply on the other that he'll be any better as an NL hitter now than he was his first trip through that league.

Wily Mo Pena simply isn't very good. In several hundred MLB PAs he has shown virtually no ability to read and recognize breaking pitches.

#40 Eric Van


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 12:15 PM

So many people have sussed this out correctly that I don't think there's a problem with my confirming they were right. I believe Wily Mo was acquired with the idea of him succeeding Trot as the RF, and of course the team changed their mind once they decided he would be more than just an ordinary defensive liability out there despite his ability to play a not-awful CF.

The commonplace assertion that Wily Mo is simply a terrible defensive player is clearly wrong; it remains very odd and unusual that he is much worse in an OF corner than in CF. I don't think it's fair to say that they should have known how bad his RF defense would be; he had the equivalent of less than 100 games in RF when he was acquired, and less than 90 in CF. Those are ridiculously small samples to judge fielding in, and if anyone at the time the trade was made had suggested that his average defensive numbers in CF and terrible numbers in RF represented his real abilities rather than being a SSS fluke by a guy who was overall below-average but not terrible, they would have been hooted off the board.

Edit: it appears as if Wily Mo played CF exclusively in the minors until his last year, which is to say he had about 250 games in CF and 100 in RF.

Edited by Eric Van, 21 August 2007 - 12:33 PM.


#41 Maalox


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 12:24 PM

The commonplace assertion that Wily Mo is simply a terrible defensive player is clearly wrong; it remains very odd and unusual that he is much worse in an OF corner than in CF.

It's not the least bit odd vis a vis the big pool of baseball players at all levels from LL on up. It's quite common and quite explicable. It only seems odd because players who are unable to make the sort of adjustment Pena was unable to make rarely even sniff the major leagues.

I don't think it's fair to say that they should have known how bad his RF defense would be; he had the equivalent of less than 100 games in RF when he was acquired, and less than 90 in CF. Those are ridiculously small samples to judge fielding in, and if anyone at the time the trade was made had suggested that his average defensive numbers in CF and terrible numbers in RF represented his real abilities rather than being a SSS fluke by a guy who was overall below-average but not terrible, they would have been hooted off the board.

...by other people who had lots and lots and lots of "data" but had never actually seen the guy play.

That Wily Mo Pena has serious gaps in his skill set has been readily apparent for a while. Some aspects of his game are simply of sub-professional quality. Presumably it was just as readily apparent last April. I don't know, as I was hiking and not watching games. But it's obvious now.

If he didn't have the power he has, he wouldn't even be in A-level ball right now.

#42 irinmike

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 12:24 PM

How long is the WMP should have, or should not have, been traded theme going to be debated? The guy didn't fit here. The RS management looked at him and felt the same. He is now with another team that has no chance to go anyplace playoff wise in the fore seeable future. Hope he does well, but know what he has accomplished with the previous three organizations he played for is exactly what he will achieve with the Nationals.

#43 Eric Van


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 12:46 PM

It's not the least bit odd vis a vis the big pool of baseball players at all levels from LL on up. It's quite common and quite explicable. It only seems odd because players who are unable to make the sort of adjustment Pena was unable to make rarely even sniff the major leagues.

Pena was very much above average in CF in the minors, e.g., second in the league in RF his last year there. He was presumably converted to RF in 2002 only because they had Griffey, and it was felt he would eventually grow out of the position a la Sosa, his ubiquitous comp.

The one thing missing from your post, of course, is the long list of other top CF prospects who flopped because they were much worse when converted to a corner. Or even the short list. Or even one other name. And that's because in fact this never happens at the professional level. I've never heard of it (even at the LL level, actually), you've never heard of it. So much for being "quite common."

Edit: why would a good defensive LL (or collegiate, or any other player who wasn't blocked at the MLB level) CF be converted to LF or RF, anyway? Oh, but not only is this "quite common," it's quite common that they can't play there when they are. Please.

Edited by Eric Van, 21 August 2007 - 12:50 PM.


#44 Morassofnegativity


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 12:52 PM

Average defensive players don't repeatedly make the mistakes that WMP did in the outfield. He was horrifying to watch when low liners were hit in his direction - CF included.

#45 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 12:57 PM

Pena was very much above average in CF in the minors, e.g., second in the league in RF his last year there. He was presumably converted to RF in 2002 only because they had Griffey, and it was felt he would eventually grow out of the position a la Sosa, his ubiquitous comp.


Isn't range factor almost completely useless as a defensive measuring tool? Too much of it depends on the nature of the pitching staff rather than on any real skill on the part of the player. Bill James has killed whole forests on this topic after pimping RF for much of his early career.

#46 sibpin

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Posted 21 August 2007 - 02:02 PM

Final Trade: WMP to the Nationals, Emiliano Fruto to the D'backs, and Carter to the Sox. ESPN

#47 sfip


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 02:10 PM

rotoworld's commentary

Moving Pena without ever giving him a chance to play regularly is going to make the Red Sox look bad someday, but at least they got back a quality property for him, which comes as a surprise, given that he cleared waivers this month. The 24-year-old Carter was hitting .324/.383/.521 with 18 homers and a 68/50 K/BB ratio in 503 at-bats for Triple-A Tucson. He's been helped by playing in strong offensive environments in his career, but he still could prove to be a solid platoon first baseman against right-handers. He's also an option in left field, but not as good of one. The Red Sox will assign him to Triple-A for now, but they should call him up next month.



#48 dcmissle


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 02:58 PM

rotoworld's commentary



T'was weird driving to work this morning with this blaring on the radio, "WMP hit his second HR in as many days for the Nats last night."

Bowden obviously retained his love, and the Nats have major power needs in the OF. Hopefully, it works out for everyone.

#49 Eric Van


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 03:23 PM

Isn't range factor almost completely useless as a defensive measuring tool? Too much of it depends on the nature of the pitching staff rather than on any real skill on the part of the player. Bill James has killed whole forests on this topic after pimping RF for much of his early career.

It's by no means completely useless, just prone to occasionally being very misleading aand hence only half-correlated to talent. It's also the only way we have to measure historic milb defense. It's possible that a team in the Midwest League was dominated by flyball pitchers, but the single likeliest thing is that the staff were neutral. Early scouting reports have him as a plus defender with the caveat that he needed to improve his reads.

Yeah, Wily Mo in CF had problems with certain types of balls. If he didn't, he would have been above average, because he had deceptively good speed. I'm not saying he was a plus defender in CF, just that he was certainly good enough to project as an acceptable corner OF. A guy who is somewhere between -15 and 0 in CF should be somewhere between -10 and +10 in a corner. Not -30 or -40 or -80.

Note that the Sox made the opposite "gamble" a few months earlier when they traded for a guy coming off a +35 season in LF (admittedly, probably inflated by luck but suggesting a +20 or so talent at the least) who had never been more than a +0 in CF. That didn't seem right, either. And with a little bit more experience, he's become exactly the sort of CF that a +35 LF ought to be.

Edited by Eric Van, 21 August 2007 - 03:28 PM.


#50 86spike


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Posted 21 August 2007 - 03:23 PM

A potential power-hitting AAA 1Bman is a better return than I thought we could get for WMP. Even if Carter is not a long-term option for the Sox... he could easily be sued in a trade down the road to pick up some other piece we are lacking.

Good work.