230 replies to this topic

[FenwayGreen42184]

It has become pretty aparent that Mike Lowell is likely leaving after this season. I was just wondering who some fellow sox fans think will fill the void come next april.

[RedSox04]

It has become pretty aparent that Mike Lowell is likely leaving after this season. I was just wondering who some fellow sox fans think will fill the void come next april.

It's certainly way too early to know for sure, but I think Lowell will get a three or four year deal at $12 million annually from somebody. It probably won't be us. The Sox could use the money saved from Lowell, Schilling, and Clement, and go after A-Rod, assuming A-Rod opts out, which Boras is the type of guy that would tell him to do so. I know the Yankees have said they won't pursue him, but it's hard to see the Yankees letting A-Rod go. As far as we go, it should be obvious to the Sox that an Ortiz an aging Manny and powerless Drew will need a lot of help for the middle of the lineup.

It's just hard for me to see Theo wanting to tie up that much of his payroll with one player. It should be interesting to see. Manny does come off the books after 2008, so...?

At this moment here's my uneducated guess: Kevin Youkilis will be the 3B in 2008, and quite possibly, if the reports are accurate, Chris Carter could get an opportunity to be our 1B in 2008.

[Ehb1026]

It has become pretty aparent that Mike Lowell is likely leaving after this season. I was just wondering who some fellow sox fans think will fill the void come next april.

Given Epstein's track record of late.... Hinske.

[rembrat]

It has become pretty aparent that Mike Lowell is likely leaving after this season. I was just wondering who some fellow sox fans think will fill the void come next april.

It is too early to know. But he might already be on the team, and I'm not referring to Eric Hinske.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Given Epstein's track record of late.... Hinske.

oh please.

The FO could go a lot of ways with this position. I think it's pretty safe to assume (barring a trade) that Youkilis will be at one of the first base/third base positions. He isn't nearly the defender he is at 3B as he is 1B, but given the lack of offensive 3B I'm guessing they more easily find a 1B to fill the void.

Where they get that could go a couple of ways.

Within the organization the only candidates that really stick out would possibly be Moss (though his 1B experience is very limited) or possibly Carter if he is indeed involved in the WMP trade. I really think the FO will put Ellsbury in CF, so I have my doubts about them going with a rookie 1B and a rookie CF.

Another option within the organization is just resigning Lowell himself. The 3B class in the AL is really weak outside of Lowell, Arod and possibly Figgins. I have no interest in anything more than a 2 year deal, but I have a feeling it would take more than that.

Via trade, I have no idea what's going on in the FO, but I'm guessing they would look at Konerko, Dunn, Beltre(3B), and if Miguel Cabrera ever hit the market I'm guessing the Red Sox put in a strong offer but that's a long shot. They were also linked with Laroche in LAD so maybe they take a look there also.

I'm not sure what the FA market looks like. The main guy who sticks out is Arod, who despite being a Yankee, would be a tremendous haul for this offense. If he opts out Cashman says he won't be back so you'd have to think the Red Sox jump to the front of that. With a ton of money coming off the books he may be an option. Carlos Pena also is a FA, not sure how much the FO values him since he has played his way into a decent sized contract but he could be a candidate also.

Edited by Rdsxmbnt, 19 August 2007 - 05:56 PM.

[BigSoxFan]

If A-Rod gets away from the Yankees, there's no doubt in my mind that he'll be Red Sox. It just makes too much sense.

[Foxsportsjughead]

If A-Rod gets away from the Yankees, there's no doubt in my mind that he'll be Red Sox. It just makes too much sense.

I do believe The Sox are the only other team that could afford Arod as well. The Yankees may be posturing now but when it gets to the offseason they will probably react like they did with Sheffield and keep him away from the Sox at all costs (unless Arod just flat out refuses to play in the Big Apple). If Arod comes here I believe they will not re-sign Schilling and Lowell and will also move Manny where they would eat a decent portion of his 2008 money. I would love to see a Papi, Arod, Manny 3-4-5--I just think the FO will try more than ever to move Ramirez should they sign Arod. If Chris Carter is the real deal, Youks could also be moved. If Arod doesn't come here and Lowell signs elsewhere 2008 looks like Youks at 3B with the hopes of upgrading the offense at 1B. I also don't believe Cabrera is as long a shot as people think should the Arod thing not happen.

[leftfieldlegacy]

I do believe The Sox are the only other team that could afford Arod as well. The Yankees may be posturing now but when it gets to the offseason they will probably react like they did with Sheffield and keep him away from the Sox at all costs (unless Arod just flat out refuses to play in the Big Apple). If Arod comes here I believe they will not re-sign Schilling and Lowell and will also move Manny where they would eat a decent portion of his 2008 money. I would love to see a Papi, Arod, Manny 3-4-5--I just think the FO will try more than ever to move Ramirez should they sign Arod. If Chris Carter is the real deal, Youks could also be moved. If Arod doesn't come here and Lowell signs elsewhere 2008 looks like Youks at 3B with the hopes of upgrading the offense at 1B. I also don't believe Cabrera is as long a shot as people think should the Arod thing not happen.

If Arod comes here, I also believe the FO will make every attempt to move Manny, but I don't think they will eat any of his contract to complete a trade. After this season, Manny is basically on a series of 1 year "show me" contracts that extend through the 2010 season. A superstar on short money is attractive even to those teams that don't usually spend big money for FA. Manny cannot veto a trade so he can't force a team to guarantee his two option years. I think Theo will simply follow the same path as before and listen to all offers. If a good one comes along, trade him, if not, keep him and re-assess at the end of '08.

[MTKennedy]

Manny cannot veto a trade so he can't force a team to guarantee his two option years.

Manny actually can veto a trade. He now has 10-5 rights and can veto any trade. Therefore it would make it more difficult to move him because of the fact that he would almost certainly insist on the option years being picked up. Not to mention the fact that getting Manny to agree to a trade may be in itself a difficult task.

However, I don't think you trade Manny even if you get A-rod. As the market has increased, Manny's contract has become more reasonable. While it certainly is not a bargain, it is not the albatross it once was.

[Andrew]

It has become pretty aparent that Mike Lowell is likely leaving after this season. I was just wondering who some fellow sox fans think will fill the void come next april.

In which way has this become apparent? Could you at least try to explain what you mean here? It seems to be the less likely of a few options, but it is in no ways set in stone. If the Sox FO doesn't see much of an upgrade at the first or third base positions (ie, no chance of signing A-Rod) I could see them re-upping on Lowell for a two year deal. He obviously wants a longer contract, considering this is his last big chance, but there is the possibility of him settling for two years.

The first and third base free agent class seems pretty thin next year. This, of course, may only contribute to Lowell going elsewhere. It still remains to be seen.

A lot of what happens during the 07/08 off-season depends on how A-Rod handles his contract option.

And does adding two extra question marks somehow make your statement more poignant?

Edited by Andrew, 19 August 2007 - 10:27 PM.

[leftfieldlegacy]

Manny actually can veto a trade. He now has 10-5 rights and can veto any trade. Therefore it would make it more difficult to move him because of the fact that he would almost certainly insist on the option years being picked up. Not to mention the fact that getting Manny to agree to a trade may be in itself a difficult task.

However, I don't think you trade Manny even if you get A-rod. As the market has increased, Manny's contract has become more reasonable. While it certainly is not a bargain, it is not the albatross it once was.

I checked his contract but completely forgot about the 10-5 rights. Oh well, welcome back Manny. But I guess there are worse things than having Papi-Arod-Manny as your 3-4-5.

[Metrician]

I think it's likely that neither Arod nor Lowell will be at 3b in '08. It's going to be Youk, perhaps by default.
As for 1B, maybe it's not workable but a formerly interested FO can move a lousy contract for lousier contract in J.D., for a revisited Todd Helton trade, with others involved. Helton is due big $$ and while not a contract any org. would want to accept, at least he's productive. I see no other way of moving Drew unless we toss in young arms which isn't going to happen.
Haven't kept track of how Morgan Ensberg has done since he got cut last month, but he's a non-tend.probability, in what looks to be a very sparse po., after Arod,Lowell.

In any case November is going to be a wild month of FA activety for this FO.

Edited by Metrician, 20 August 2007 - 02:38 AM.

[FenwayGreen42184]

Given Epstein's track record of late.... Hinske.

Omg... I laughed out loud when I read that... I like your typical northeasterner dry sense of sarcastic humor.

[Andrew]

Omg... I laughed out loud when I read that... I like your typical northeasterner dry sense of sarcastic humor.

You mean your typical WEEI listener's asinine ramblings?

[Sea Dog]

As for 1B, maybe it's not workable but a formerly interested FO can move a lousy contract for lousier contract in J.D., for a revisited Todd Helton trade, with others involved. Helton is due big $$ and while not a contract any org. would want to accept, at least he's productive. I see no other way of moving Drew unless we toss in young arms which isn't going to happen.

Not sure why the Rockies would want Drew. They're already overflowing with outfielders, and if they're going to pay someone's huge contract, it might as well be at a need position. Also, the reason the Rockies looked at that trade was to save money. Not sure a Drew trade would be the money-saver they want.

[Foxsportsjughead]

Not sure why the Rockies would want Drew. They're already overflowing with outfielders, and if they're going to pay someone's huge contract, it might as well be at a need position. Also, the reason the Rockies looked at that trade was to save money. Not sure a Drew trade would be the money-saver they want.

Drew is most likely here to stay for at least the next three seasons before he's movable. I am convinced they made a deal with Boras before he opted out so the negotiation for Dice-K would go smoothly.

Anyway, the only way they re-up Lowell is for 2 years at about the same money he's making (maxing at 10 million per). If he gets a 3 year offer for 11-13 million or 2 at 25 million a year from someone else he's gone. I don't think the Sox will pay that.

[FenwayGreen42184]

I think that if A-Rod becomes a free-agent (which he will be as long as the Yankees don't win the world series this season) the only teams in the running for him will be Boston and Anaheim... eitherway, he'll leave New York for sure. He can't handle the press there. And the fans have booed him in the past. Sure, they warmed up to him for the 500 HRs thing... but while that was all nice and pleasant, the New York press was calling him "Mr. April" betting that he would become very "unclutch" in the months to come. While they haven't be exactly right, they haven't been exactly wrong either. A-Rod has play has been consistant, but very mediocre in comparison to his April, which is still the back-bone month of his statistical success this season.

On another note, I personally believe that A-Rod is a clubhouse cancer. Not in the same way Carl Everett was, but he is just a very socially awkward individual. Proof of this comes from when John Henry and Theo went to meet A-Rod in his hotel room at 2am at the winter meetings in 2003 and A-Rod answered the door wearing $2,000 suit. It irked them that he was that self-concerned about his image... and their suspicions have been brought to the attention of others as well.

In last year's SI article, "The Lonely Yankee" A-Rod was ripped for being an incompatible entity in the Yankee club house. It's not that he doesn't get along with anyone, he just has trouble socially interacting with people. He's very conservative when socializing with his teammates.

I just think that having A-rod on your team is like asking to have a circus follow around wherever you go.

I really don't blame A-Rod for his troubles all that much personally. As someone who is 23 years old and who's done a ton of growing up in the last 5 years, I couldn't imagine how it would affect me if I had to grow up on the fly, playing baseball with professionals twice my age, or who have been in the game longer than I have been alive. That's a lot of weight to put on someone's psych and then you have the added pressure to perform when you are labeled as a great player from the start the way he was. I feel that A-Rod's talent was also his curse: He may go down as the greatest player of all time, but in the end he will have missed out on so much of life's natural cycle of learning experiences and maturity from having to go through what he's endured over the years. All the millions of dollars in the world cannot buy back some of life's lessons that it is important we all learn and I think A-Rod suffers from having his life on fast-forward too often when he was young.

As was once stated by Homer in the Iliad in reference to the swift-footed Achillies: "You're glory walks hand and hand with your doom.

[Sea Dog]

On another note, I personally believe that A-Rod is a clubhouse cancer.

Is that why the Yankees have been playing out of their mind since rallying behind A-Rod, starting with the "Ha!" incident?

[Bruno's Catch]

On another note, I personally believe that A-Rod is a clubhouse cancer. Not in the same way Carl Everett was, but he is just a very socially awkward individual. Proof of this comes from when John Henry and Theo went to meet A-Rod in his hotel room at 2am at the winter meetings in 2003 and A-Rod answered the door wearing $2,000 suit. It irked them that he was that self-concerned about his image... and their suspicions have been brought to the attention of others as well.

In last year's SI article, "The Lonely Yankee" A-Rod was ripped for being an incompatible entity in the Yankee club house. It's not that he doesn't get along with anyone, he just has trouble socially interacting with people. He's very conservative when socializing with his teammates.

I just think that having A-rod on your team is like asking to have a circus follow around wherever you go.

I think ARod gets a raw dealer often times. Case in point is the above - So, John Henry and Theo were irked that ARod showed the respect to them and thought the meeting was important enough to get dressed up for it? That makes NO sense in my world. Only ARod would get criticised for that. Either there is a major component of the story missing, or I have to call BS.

Secondly, what's wrong with being conservative? I personally Jeter is a d*ck because he has thrown ARod under the bus on several occasions - great leader my ass. Would you like a guy who makes $25M a year to be a leader in the clubhouse? Sure. But hey, I guess an annual .305 50HR and 130RBI will need to do

[Bruno's Catch]

I think ARod makes perfect sense, financially anyway. With the subtraction of Lowell's $9M this year and Schillling's $13M, that's $22M of found money (if you are of the opinion Schill is gone after this year, which I am). So if you sign ARod to take Lowell's place at $30M and a #3 pitcher to take Schillings place (let's say $10M next year to fill that role in the rotation, for argument sake), that is $40M and only an incremental spend increase of $18M for the best player in baseball and a decent starter - which is more than what Schilling has given us this year.

[January]

I think ARod makes perfect sense, financially anyway. With the subtraction of Lowell's $9M this year and Schillling's $13M, that's $22M of found money (if you are of the opinion Schill is gone after this year, which I am). So if you sign ARod to take Lowell's place at $30M and a #3 pitcher to take Schillings place (let's say $10M next year to fill that role in the rotation, for argument sake), that is $40M and only an incremental spend increase of $18M for the best player in baseball and a decent starter - which is more than what Schilling has given us this year.

I got the impression that Buchholz will be ready for next year. If so, he'll make alot less than 10M as a rookie. Which is probalby good, as I'm not sure you can buy a decent #3 for 10M anymore.

[Kevin Youkulele]

I got the impression that Buchholz will be ready for next year. If so, he'll make alot less than 10M as a rookie. Which is probalby good, as I'm not sure you can buy a decent #3 for 10M anymore.

I agree, and Clement's $9M also comes off the books, so the acquisition of one big piece in the form of A-Rod makes a lot of sense; it also almost certainly downgrades the NYY offense as well.

[Trotsky]

And considering Buchholz in this in re: to the ARod discussion shows the importance of developing starting pitching. Essentially replacing 25 million of salary with a rookie and using that money to address a dire issue.

I'll put money that ARod will NOT be with the Sox next season (nor in pinstripes).

[bombdiggz]

I'm not sure what the FA market looks like.

Let me preface what I'm about to say by saying that I do not intend to pick on you because your post was excellent (good job looking at potential trades in particular). However, I find it utterly ridiculous that people both here and on the main board can even begin to post on this topic without knowing what is out there in terms of FA for 2008, but blanketly assume that Mike Lowell will be replaced.

2008 Free Agents

Third Base
Russell Branyan SD
Corey Koskie * MIL
Mike Lamb HOU
Mike Lowell BOS
Greg Norton * TB
Abraham O. Nunez PHI

First Base
Sean Casey DET
Tony Clark ARZ
Jeff Conine PHI
Julio Franco ATL
Kevin Millar * BAL
Olmedo Saenz LAD
Mark Sweeney LAD
Mike Sweeney KC

Notes: asterisks denote options and Carlos Pena while on a one year contract is not a free agent until after the 2009 season due to service time.

So, now that we know what is out there lets discuss:

Basically, outside of Mike Lowell I see a lot of names that would make me throw up (and I'm not talking about the throwing up in my mouth a little bit kind, I'm talking some serious regurgetaton) if they were starting at a corner IF spot for our Boston Red Sox in 2008. Now this obviously changes if Alex Rodriguez becomes a Free Agent. But I wouldn't count out the Yankees offering him some crazy extension before the end of the year, so they can keep Texas paying some of the next two years. Thats a ten million dollar incentive no other team has. They did acquire Betemit, but would they really let A-Rod walk? So lets assume he opts out and that NY will not bid for his services after that point, I think it's ignorant to think that the Red Sox are the only other team that can afford him. IMO, both LA teams will be serious bidders for his services.

So, lets take a look at trade options, RdSxbmnt, did a great job identifying some potential trades. Cabreara and Dunn both make a lot of sense given they are getting very pricey for tier respective teams, additionally Dunn is a FA after next season. But with the lack of FA options out there I have to believe tht the Red Sox will have to give ap an awful lot of talent because either the Marlins or Reds will have us by the balls so to speak if we don't resign Lowell. This could be alleviated somewhat by signing a guy like Mike Lamb who could backup both positions after they acquired a real CI, not really a bad idea considering Hinske probably won't be back. But I definately don't want Mike Lamb coming over from the NL central to be a starter for this team, and he's probably the most desirable FA after Lowell.

Essentially, if A-Rod doesn't opt out, it's very possible that Mike Lowell could be the best option for this team next year. I wouldn't count out the resigning of him quite yet. Personally, I'd love to let the guy walk and pocket the draft picks, but not at the expense of being stuck with Russell Branyan, there just aren't a lot of viable FA options out there.

Edited by bombdiggz, 20 August 2007 - 03:42 PM.

[Bruno's Catch]

I got the impression that Buchholz will be ready for next year. If so, he'll make alot less than 10M as a rookie. Which is probalby good, as I'm not sure you can buy a decent #3 for 10M anymore.

I am not confident in counting on Clay as our #3 next year. If he performs up to that task - great, but I don't think it is a safe assumption. And I think you canget a #3 for $10M

Mariners have Miguel Batista at $6M (13-8, 4.14 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)
Indians have Jake Westbrook at $6.1M (4-7, 4.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) and Paul Byrd at $7M (11-5, 4.41 ERA, 1.38 WHIP)
White Sox have Javier Vazquez at $13M (10-6, 3.74 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) and these are more #2 #'s these days

And bunch of #3's are making <$1M because they are young.

Hell, Beckett is only making $6M this year, $9.5 next and $10.5M in '09!

[Bruno's Catch]

And considering Buchholz in this in re: to the ARod discussion shows the importance of developing starting pitching. Essentially replacing 25 million of salary with a rookie and using that money to address a dire issue.

I'll put money that ARod will NOT be with the Sox next season (nor in pinstripes).

I agree. While I want him, he won't be here. He wants to go to a place where the fans don't really care, so he will end up in Anaheim or with the Dodgers.

[JimEdSF]

I simply cannot imagine ARod will come to Boston. I mean, the amount of shit he has taken from Boston fans? Sure, everyone has a price, but unless he is a truly demented individual, why would you put yourself through that? Most of us root for the shirt but there would still be fans at home who ripped him, plus the MFY fans would probably pay to have his family kidnapped and sold into slavery.

I'm thinking if there isn't a good deal on Atkins out there they would just keep Lowell. He's still a top-10 3B in most offensive categories and gives you the gold glove and the clubhouse presence. It's fun to think about shiny new things but if Slappy McCheater isn't moving in I'm fine with Mike.

(EDIT: yeah, what bombdiggz said)

Edited by JimEdSF, 20 August 2007 - 03:49 PM.

[Bruno's Catch]

Let me preface what I'm about to say by saying that I do not intend to pick on you because your post was excellent (good job looking at potential trades in particular). However, I find it utterly ridiculous that people both here and on the main board can even begin to post on this topic without knowing what is out there in terms of FA for 2008, but blanketly assume that Mike Lowell will be replaced.

2008 Free Agents

Third Base
Russell Branyan SD
Corey Koskie * MIL
Mike Lamb HOU
Mike Lowell BOS
Greg Norton * TB
Abraham O. Nunez PHI

First Base
Sean Casey DET
Tony Clark ARZ
Jeff Conine PHI
Julio Franco ATL
Kevin Millar * BAL
Olmedo Saenz LAD
Mark Sweeney LAD
Mike Sweeney KC

Notes: asterisks denote options and Carlos Pena while on a one year contract is not a free agent until after the 2009 season due to service time.

So, now that we know what is out there lets discuss:

Basically, outside of Mike Lowell I see a lot of names that would make me throw up (and I'm not talking about the throwing up in my mouth a little bit kind, I'm talking some serious regurgetaton) if they were starting at a corner IF spot for our Boston Red Sox in 2008. Now this obviously changes if Alex Rodriguez becomes a Free Agent. But I wouldn't count out the Yankees offering him some crazy extension before the end of the year, so they can keep Texas paying some of the next two years. Thats a ten million dollar incentive no other team has. They did acquire Betemit, but would they really let A-Rod walk? So lets assume he opts out and that NY will not bid for his services after that point, I think it's ignorant to think that the Red Sox are the only other team that can afford him. IMO, both LA teams will be serious bidders for his services.

So, lets take a look at trade options, RdSxbmnt, did a great job identifying some potential trades. Cabreara and Dunn both make a lot of sense given they are getting very pricey for tier respective teams, additionally Dunn is a FA after next season. But with the lack of FA options out there I have to believe tht the Red Sox will have to give ap an awful lot of talent because either the Marlins or Reds will have us by the balls so to speak if we don't resign Lowell. This could be alleviated somewhat by signing a guy like Mike Lamb who could backup both positions after they acquired a real CI, not really a bad idea considering Hinske probably won't be back. But I definately don't want Mike Lamb coming over from the NL central to be a starter for this team, and he's probably the most desirable FA after Lowell.

Essentially, if A-Rod doesn't opt out, it's very possible that Mike Lowell could be the best option for this team next year. I wouldn't count out the resigning of him quite yet. Personally, I'd love to let the guy walk and pocket the draft picks, but not at the expense of being stuck with Russell Branyan, there just aren't a lot of viable FA options out there.

I don't see this FO getting Dunn. He AVERAGES over 1K/ game (332 K's in 988 AB's over the past 2 years, for a K ratio of 1/2.9 AB's - Horrible)

[Trotsky]

I'm sure a trade will bring either a 1st baseman or a 3rd baseman here rather than the FA market.
The discussion could either expand to talk about who will be packaged to bring in that person, and also included possible 1st/3rd baseman that could be on the market that are cost controlled for at least two more seasons.

I read the FO's reluctance to deal Ellsbury as a sign that they were going to be dealing Coco this offseason.

[Sea Dog]

I simply cannot imagine ARod will come to Boston. I mean, the amount of shit he has taken from Boston fans? Sure, everyone has a price, but unless he is a truly demented individual, why would you put yourself through that? Most of us root for the shirt but there would still be fans at home who ripped him, plus the MFY fans would probably pay to have his family kidnapped and sold into slavery.

I don't see why Boston fans would rip him so badly. Yes, he played for the MFY, but remember that he did offer to take a $28.5 million paycut to try and help make a trade to the Red Sox possible. It's not his fault the union said no and the MFY stepped in with an offer that the Rangers didn't refuse.

Besides, the moment he went .300-40-130-20 in a Red Sox uniform, a lot of it would be forgotten. Quickly.

The one reason I could see the Red Sox not making a move? Not wanting to give high compensatory draft picks to the MFY.

Edited by Sea Dog, 20 August 2007 - 04:31 PM.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I don't see this FO getting Dunn. He AVERAGES over 1K/ game (332 K's in 988 AB's over the past 2 years, for a K ratio of 1/2.9 AB's - Horrible)

Thats it? No mention of the .372 OBP or .295 IsoP? Just because he strikesout a lot doesn't mean he's Willy Mo Pena. For a team that lacks power, the guy is a monster. He is playing LF right now, but obviously if aquired he'd be brought it in to 1B and he is one of the top 30-40 offensive players in major league baseball.

Comparitively to other 1B this year he would be tied for 7th in runs created, and 7th in gross production average. He won't win any awards for his defense at 1B, but his offense more than makes up for it. Combined with the fact that he is 27 and IMO he would be a fantastic addition to this team and be a mainstay in the middle of the order for a long time assuming he is reupped.


*good call bombdiggz on Pena, seems like he has been around for ever (well he has but not for long stints).

[Rdsxmbnt]

The one reason I could see the Red Sox not making a move? Not wanting to give high compensatory draft picks to the MFY.

I don't believe we would owe draft picks since Arod opted out, much like with JD Drew.

[honkycracker]

I'd have to think that if the front office decides to not re-sign Lowell, they'd have to make (another?) inquiry on Andy LaRoche. The Dodgers (who have made a number of mind-bogglingly poor personnel decision this year) seem to be down him, giving Tony Abreu more of a look than LaRoche. What the Dodgers would be looking for in return, I don't know, but if you can swing a prospect deal with a Bowden and/or a Lowrie going the other way, you'd have to look into it.

[Sea Dog]

I don't believe we would owe draft picks since Arod opted out, much like with JD Drew.

Gotcha. I somtimes get confused as to how those draft picks work out.

[Trotsky]

You've got to wonder about Adam Dunn though even despite the K's. He's be a pretty bad first baseman at a position where the Sox seem to put a premium on good defense (witness Youk, getting JT Snow as a backup, John Olerud and Eyechart in backward succession) and how much of his HR power is 1) Great American Ballpark generated and 2) due to the supposed inordinately high amount of straight fastballs that NL pitchers throw and how it would affect a move to the AL.

I'm still trying to figure out a solid trade for a power hitting corner. I'm passing the FA wire thanks.

[JimEdSF]

I don't see why Boston fans would rip him so badly.

Well, there was this little item:


And this cute number also:


For me, it's one thing to be kind of a prima donna, clubhouse douche with blonde highlights. Being a flat-out cheater, when you are arguably one of the three most gifted players in the game and a mortal lock for the HOF; that is pretty much inexcusable.

EDIT: I don't mean to sound combative here, because I see your point Sea Dog. Winning excuses a lot for a lot of people, myself included. But when I spend more than 30 seconds thinking about Arod as a Red Sox player I feel dirty.

Edited by JimEdSF, 20 August 2007 - 06:01 PM.

[January]

Essentially, if A-Rod doesn't opt out, it's very possible that Mike Lowell could be the best option for this team next year. I wouldn't count out the resigning of him quite yet. Personally, I'd love to let the guy walk and pocket the draft picks, but not at the expense of being stuck with Russell Branyan, there just aren't a lot of viable FA options out there.

Just to throw something out there, there's rumors about Santana being out there also. He would be a trade, but you gotta budget his contract also. I think Minn will re-up him, unless their really stupid, but you never know. Thats a scenario that gotta figure into your planning though.

I do agree that A-Rod would be fine in Boston. We dealt with Manny for gawd sake. I don't see how he can be any worse. The first HR he hits, all is forgiven. Pedroia didn't make a big deal of getting hit, and he got called(correctly) for the Slappy thing. Heck, it would be a bit of a coup, how often do good players go the other way?

Edited by January, 20 August 2007 - 06:19 PM.

[bombdiggz]

Thats it? No mention of the .372 OBP or .295 IsoP? Just because he strikesout a lot doesn't mean he's Willy Mo Pena. For a team that lacks power, the guy is a monster. He is playing LF right now, but obviously if aquired he'd be brought it in to 1B and he is one of the top 30-40 offensive players in major league baseball.

Thanks Rdsxmbnt... I was just going to point out that while he does strike out a lot, he also walks a ton. He has averaged 110 walks per year over the last three years and sould be close again this year. Not to mention this team needs a serious boost offensively.

I have to concur with trotsky here... the bigger concern with acquiring Dunn is the downgrade in defense that would occur by moving Youks to third and putting Dunn at first base. That is significantly worse than Lowell and Youks.

I think ARod makes perfect sense, financially anyway. With the subtraction of Lowell's $9M this year and Schillling's $13M, that's $22M of found money (if you are of the opinion Schill is gone after this year, which I am). So if you sign ARod to take Lowell's place at $30M and a #3 pitcher to take Schillings place (let's say $10M next year to fill that role in the rotation, for argument sake), that is $40M and only an incremental spend increase of $18M for the best player in baseball and a decent starter - which is more than what Schilling has given us this year.

It's actually not 22M found money...Clements 9.5 M is coming off the books as well, making it 30M+ total (Hinske's 4M is coming off too, but with Coco and Beckett's salary escalating that's pretty much a wash). There is no doubt that financially this team could add A-rod and if he does become a free agent there is also no doubt that Red Sox will make a serious push. However, I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that he will reach the open market, nevermind the fact that the Red Sox won't be the only team bidding for him. As much as I hate A-rod as a person, I'd love his bat in the middle of the lineup.

[Sea Dog]

For me, it's one thing to be kind of a prima donna, clubhouse douche with blonde highlights. Being a flat-out cheater, when you are arguably one of the three most gifted players in the game and a mortal lock for the HOF; that is pretty much inexcusable.

EDIT: I don't mean to sound combative here, because I see your point Sea Dog. Winning excuses a lot for a lot of people, myself included. But when I spend more than 30 seconds thinking about Arod as a Red Sox player I feel dirty.

I understand where you're coming from, but it's not like he's Neikro with sandpaper or vasoline in his cap. If that were Youkilis, we might see that as his being passionate about wanting to win.

Remember when Mike Lowell elbowed Robinson Cano in the midsection in an attempt to break up a double play AND sent Mientkiewicz to the hospital with a collision all in one night back in June? Well, A-Rod would replace that guy. Last I checked, A-Rod might have played dirty, but nowhere near like that.

But again, I do understand where you're coming from on this.

[ScubaSteveAvery]

Remember when Mike Lowell elbowed Robinson Cano in the midsection in an attempt to break up a double play AND sent Mientkiewicz to the hospital with a collision all in one night back in June? Well, A-Rod would replace that guy. Last I checked, A-Rod might have played dirty, but nowhere near like that.

Yeah, but the Lowell knee to Mientkiewicz head was not intentional at all. Just poor circumstance. And in any instance, count A-rods elbow and Lowell's elbow as the same. A-rod still slapped the ball out of Arroyo's glove and tried to play it off. Thats just plain bush league.

But either way, while A-rod's bat would definitely be welcome, I just cannot see this FO tie up half of payroll with three players (A-rod, Manny, Drew). That is not Theo's game plan. I think the Yankees and A-rod situation depends on the playoffs. If the Yankees do not win the World Series, you gotta predict the Boss opening up the coffers and giving A-rod what he wants. The Yankees would have no replacement for his bat which would decimate that lineup.

I say give Lowell a guaranteed 2 year deal with a club option for a third year. Base Salary at 8 mil per with incentive clauses possibly bringing the contract up to $11 per year. Club option for $11 million. There is absolutley no reason to to tie up that much contract space for A-rod. Just adding huge bats to an already potent lineup does not equal success. If the Red Sox should learn anything, its take the lessons from 2003 and 2004, finding bargain players who get on base and create runs is better than buying all the best options.

[January]

I understand where you're coming from, but it's not like he's Neikro with sandpaper or vasoline in his cap. If that were Youkilis, we might see that as his being passionate about wanting to win.

Honestly, that's pretty much how I see it. The guy was also willing to take a pay cut to come to boston, and this year he went to the ASG despite being hurt before it. I think he may have matured a bit since he was in seattle. He's one of those people who hides most of their personal stuff pretty well from the media(who's reduced to borderline making stuff up), so I'm not sure he's a clubhouse cancer or anything like that.


Lowells collision with mythos boy was accidental, and the Cano/Pedroia hits were pretty much a wash. I'm not sure why people made a big deal out of those. The Mientkiewicz thing just kinda sucked all around, as he happened to lean back in just the wrong way. If the teams actually considered those things a big deal, they'd bean peopel(I think we even had Tavarez pitching in there).

[sleepyjose03]

I keep finding myself amazed at how much animosity RSN has for Arod. This was a guy that a little over three years ago we were dying to have on our team. You cannot blame Arod for not coming to the Red Sox and winding up on the MFY...the fault there lies with the MLBPA, Jon Daniels, and Henry & Lucchino. Arod tried his damndest to come to play here, and when the MLBPA told him he couldnt take a pay cut like that Daniels and Lucchino/Theo/Henry couldnt work it out. In swoops Steinbrenner, who writes a bigger check, and Poof! Hes a Yankee.

While I do hold his actions as a MFY against him (the Arroyo incident, the "cheap" plays, the stripper and his reputation as a jackass) I often wonder how much of that is really just the New York Press. In Seattle and even Texas he was a fan favorite because he was really really good. He gets to NY and suddenly that isnt good enough. (Apparently only Captain Intangibles and Clemens are not ever to blame). Arod was the MVP last season, and probably will be again, and has not had a "bad" year in NY, and still the Press jumps on him as if he was the sole reason they MFY ever lost. Every loss was his fault, few (if any) of the wins were his victories. No wonder the bastard tried "cheating".

Personally, I think that he should opt out, as I see his reputation becoming restored no matter where he goes. If he signs with either the Angels or Dodgers (two teams who desperately need him and i can see making a legit push for him) he would instantly become "THE" key cog (or a major part of it...he and Vlad could become the West Coast's Papi & Manny). You think those fan bases wouldnt appreciate him? Not to mention that the press there is far too concerned with Paris, Britney, and Beckham to harrass him like the NY Press has.

As far as Boston goes? While the fans and press wouldnt be as harsh as NY, he also wont get the free pass he could likely find in LA. However, if he wants to repair his reputation, i think this is the best place to do it. I cant see Boras allowing him to take a pay cut, but imagine if his new deal w/ the Sox was for less than or approx equal to what hes making now? Suddenly he becomes a refugee from the evils that are the MFY, and he "gives up" something to make his escape. With Arod as our 3B and heir apparent, we could extend Manny's options until its evident he is really over the hill and not worth it, and in this day and age contract wise, that could be for another few years. Who wouldnt be up for a Arod, Ortiz, Manny lineup??? Anyone??



That being said, i dont see more than a 15-20% chance he comes here IF he opts out. In that case, I want Lowell back (No more than 3 years, 2 if you can swing it)

[MoGator71]

The difficulty in the corner infielder search is that we're also looking for that guy to be a #5 hitter as well, so somebody like Chone Figgins (not that I really see him in Boston anyway, but just for example) wouldn't really fit the bill.

ARod - I think there's actually a good chance he ends up here after opting out. I imagine Boras will push Alex in that direction, both because he generally reads the market well and because I'm guessing he has a pretty good idea what type of offer will be coming ARod's way if he does hit the market. And if he does end up here we get the added bonus of seeing Murray Chass' panties in a bunch all winter over the Sox tampering. Speaking of tampering, it's certainly in the Texas Rangers' best intereste for ARod to opt out...if I'm Texas I offer ARod $10MM to leave NY (on the sneak of course). Maybe if the Sox get ARod to opt out Texas will give them Salty...or Gabbard.

Lowell - If ARod doesn't opt out Lowell just might be here. I'd have to take a look at other clubs with 3B vacancies this offseason (Dodgers maybe?). I don't expect the Sox to offer much more than what he's getting this year, but if a club like LA is in the mix they might just outbid Boston.

The guy I have a feeling Theo might make some calls on is Nick Johnson. Johnson is always hurt, and with another surgery on his broken femur he's not coming back this year. However, the Nats say he's expected to be recovered by '08, but they're extended Dmitri Young so NJ should be available. With the leg injury you have to have concerns about his power though, and if NJ were to be acquired I'd imagine that a 3rd guy will be around as insurance, somebody better than Hinske. In fact, you could see them keep Lowell & Youk, add NJ, and have a rotation keeping all 3 fresh and having insurance for the inevitable Johnson injury.

I don't see Dunn here, that defense just won't cut it at 1B. Helton might be revisited I suppose, the Rox had interest in Tavarez so you could see his option picked up and him being part of a Helton deal.

And then there's Miguel Cabrera. Since I've heard zero from anyone credible even hinting at him being available I suppose the discussion ought to end there. I wonder what the Sox would have to offer to even make the Marlins pause before hanging up...Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lester/Delcarmen?

[Trotsky]

Youkilis.
Lance Berkman as the 1st baseman.

[Jeff Van GULLY]

But either way, while A-rod's bat would definitely be welcome, I just cannot see this FO tie up half of payroll with three players (A-rod, Manny, Drew). That is not Theo's game plan. I think the Yankees and A-rod situation depends on the playoffs. If the Yankees do not win the World Series, you gotta predict the Boss opening up the coffers and giving A-rod what he wants. The Yankees would have no replacement for his bat which would decimate that lineup.

I believe if A-Rod is on the open market, Theo will do everything he can to sign him.

Manny Ramirez will be in his last season in Boston next season (although he does still have options years) and that coupled with a below-average home run number this year, points to the need for an elite right handed power hitter.

A-Rod, Manny, Drew would be on the book together for a total of one year, then Manny is off the payroll.

Now I don't think A-Rod would actually come here if the Yanks and Giants/Cubs were offering similar money but I think Theo would recognize a big weakness on this team and try to improve it with one of the best positional players in Baseball.

Edit: Oh and keep Youks at 1b for the 1st half of next season and then trade him for some good pieces, before you know, he goes into another 2nd half slump.

Edited by Jeff Van GULLY, 21 August 2007 - 10:59 AM.

[Age of Aquarius]

I keep finding myself amazed at how much animosity RSN has for Arod. This was a guy that a little over three years ago we were dying to have on our team. You cannot blame Arod for not coming to the Red Sox and winding up on the MFY...the fault there lies with the MLBPA, Jon Daniels, and Henry & Lucchino. Arod tried his damndest to come to play here, and when the MLBPA told him he couldnt take a pay cut like that Daniels and Lucchino/Theo/Henry couldnt work it out. In swoops Steinbrenner, who writes a bigger check, and Poof! Hes a Yankee.

While I do hold his actions as a MFY against him (the Arroyo incident, the "cheap" plays, the stripper and his reputation as a jackass) I often wonder how much of that is really just the New York Press. In Seattle and even Texas he was a fan favorite because he was really really good. He gets to NY and suddenly that isnt good enough. (Apparently only Captain Intangibles and Clemens are not ever to blame). Arod was the MVP last season, and probably will be again, and has not had a "bad" year in NY, and still the Press jumps on him as if he was the sole reason they MFY ever lost. Every loss was his fault, few (if any) of the wins were his victories. No wonder the bastard tried "cheating".

Personally, I think that he should opt out, as I see his reputation becoming restored no matter where he goes. If he signs with either the Angels or Dodgers (two teams who desperately need him and i can see making a legit push for him) he would instantly become "THE" key cog (or a major part of it...he and Vlad could become the West Coast's Papi & Manny). You think those fan bases wouldnt appreciate him? Not to mention that the press there is far too concerned with Paris, Britney, and Beckham to harrass him like the NY Press has.

As far as Boston goes? While the fans and press wouldnt be as harsh as NY, he also wont get the free pass he could likely find in LA. However, if he wants to repair his reputation, i think this is the best place to do it. I cant see Boras allowing him to take a pay cut, but imagine if his new deal w/ the Sox was for less than or approx equal to what hes making now? Suddenly he becomes a refugee from the evils that are the MFY, and he "gives up" something to make his escape. With Arod as our 3B and heir apparent, we could extend Manny's options until its evident he is really over the hill and not worth it, and in this day and age contract wise, that could be for another few years. Who wouldnt be up for a Arod, Ortiz, Manny lineup??? Anyone??

That being said, i dont see more than a 15-20% chance he comes here IF he opts out. In that case, I want Lowell back (No more than 3 years, 2 if you can swing it)

I agree that ARod gets more than his fair share of vitriol from the Boston fans, but in fairness he brings much of it on himself...he has a knack for saying or doing the wrong thing at the wrong time, and I think that works against him. Moreover, I have never bought the "it was the union's fault" argument. This is ARod, and he can do what he wants--the truth is that he blinked when the union flipped out, and he shouldn't have. First of all, he could legally do whatever the heck he wants--I'm sure the union would have been unhappy, but so what? They have no ability to FORCE him to do anything, other than exert pressure in the name of the players. Were they going to take him to court? Second, of all players ARod is bigger than the union. If he had really been gung-ho on the Sox, he could have told Fehr and the rest of the crew to go jump in a lake, and they would have had to accept it. Instead, he played the good soldier routine and the rest is history.

Having said all of this, he is an all-universe talent and I'd love to see him playing in Boston next year...but if it doesn't happen, I'm happy to stay with Lowell for another 2 years anyway.

[njingles3]

Arod was the MVP last season, and probably will be again, and has not had a "bad" year in NY, and still the Press jumps on him as if he was the sole reason they MFY ever lost.

Morneau was the MVP. I don't think ARod was even close last year vote-wise, but everything else you said made sense. I'd actually give him a higher chance of coming here, depending on what teams become seriously interested. If the MFY really don't want to make an offer, that leaves a very small handful of teams. We know he really wanted to come to Boston before, and I'm sure he hasn't forgotten how much we wanted him here.

If he opts out, Boston makes a lot of sense. We've got the money, a history of successful Boras negotiations, a winning team, best fans (Gary Matthews be damned), and guess what - an empty spot on the left side of our infield. Sure he might want to become a little more anonymous on the west coast, but it's just as likely that he wants to remain in the spotlight and be somewhere that the fans give a damn more than anywhere else. Don't forget, he still hasn't won a title, so while money might be his #1 goal, a ring has to be high in his priorities. Boston would give him that chance every year he would be here. With Cashman's recent statements, it's a very real possibility that Boras, like he did with Drew, will advise ARod to opt out, knowing that the Sox might just blow everyone out of the water.

Considering the way this FO has operated, and Theo's manlove for the "Elite Position Player," Boston will be first in line should ARod opt out. It's a lot of money, but after one year, Manny will be gone, and the rotation will almost certainly include both Lester and Buchholz on the cheap - not to mention Ellsbury in CF and maybe even Lowrie at SS. The FO has set itself up very well to be in position to save money on very good young players and spend it elsewhere (like a shiny new offensive toy).

[MTKennedy]

The difficulty in the corner infielder search is that we're also looking for that guy to be a #5 hitter as well, so somebody like Chone Figgins (not that I really see him in Boston anyway, but just for example) wouldn't really fit the bill.

ARod - I think there's actually a good chance he ends up here after opting out. I imagine Boras will push Alex in that direction, both because he generally reads the market well and because I'm guessing he has a pretty good idea what type of offer will be coming ARod's way if he does hit the market. And if he does end up here we get the added bonus of seeing Murray Chass' panties in a bunch all winter over the Sox tampering. Speaking of tampering, it's certainly in the Texas Rangers' best intereste for ARod to opt out...if I'm Texas I offer ARod $10MM to leave NY (on the sneak of course). Maybe if the Sox get ARod to opt out Texas will give them Salty...or Gabbard.

Lowell - If ARod doesn't opt out Lowell just might be here. I'd have to take a look at other clubs with 3B vacancies this offseason (Dodgers maybe?). I don't expect the Sox to offer much more than what he's getting this year, but if a club like LA is in the mix they might just outbid Boston.

The guy I have a feeling Theo might make some calls on is Nick Johnson. Johnson is always hurt, and with another surgery on his broken femur he's not coming back this year. However, the Nats say he's expected to be recovered by '08, but they're extended Dmitri Young so NJ should be available. With the leg injury you have to have concerns about his power though, and if NJ were to be acquired I'd imagine that a 3rd guy will be around as insurance, somebody better than Hinske. In fact, you could see them keep Lowell & Youk, add NJ, and have a rotation keeping all 3 fresh and having insurance for the inevitable Johnson injury.

I don't see Dunn here, that defense just won't cut it at 1B. Helton might be revisited I suppose, the Rox had interest in Tavarez so you could see his option picked up and him being part of a Helton deal.

And then there's Miguel Cabrera. Since I've heard zero from anyone credible even hinting at him being available I suppose the discussion ought to end there. I wonder what the Sox would have to offer to even make the Marlins pause before hanging up...Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lester/Delcarmen?

I think your assertion that the the new 3b or 1b needs to be a power hitter is right on. As far as the options you have listed above, A-rod should be option numero uno. As much as I don't like him, he is the best player in baseball and fills a need.

Mike Lowell will almost certainly be offered a more lucrative deal elsewhere. Philidelphia and San Diego come to mind. The sox should not resign him for more than a year, possibly two with a hometown discount. He will probably get a three or four year offer somewhere else.

Nick Johnson would be an intriguing option and may come fairly cheap in a trade due to his injury history, rather large contract, and Dmitri Young just signed an extension. However due to his injury history you would have to have an additional option on the bench that would be a serviceable 1st or 3rdbaseman in the likely event of a DL stint. Maybe Carlos Pena, or if the White Sox decide to non-tender Joe Crede maybe take a flier on him in the form of a one year deal.

I would agree that Dunn should not be considered for anything but an Eric Hinske type roll here. Neither should Helton at this point in his career. If you are going to take on that salary at his age and performance, then you might as well give Lowell the three or four year deal he wants, all indications are he will be more productive than Helton at half the cost, plus no assets lost via trade.

While noone has stated that Miguel Cabrera will be available it is a likelyhood that he will be. His paycheck as of right now constitutes almost a quarter of the Marlins payroll. After arbitration this year it could go up to 40%. I do not believe the Marlins are willing to play one player that will be a free agent after 2009 that much money. I could certainly be wrong. So they will likely either trade him to the highest bidder, or less likely sign him to an extension to avoid arbitration and free agency. The cost to trade for him would likely be ALL of our top prospects. Probably not worth it, the Dodgers may be more likely.

Andy LaRoche is a name I have not seen here, there was mention of him around the trade deadline, although I don't know if the Dodgers would be willing to trade him, they would probably want a top pitching prospect.

[Sea Dog]

Moreover, I have never bought the "it was the union's fault" argument. This is ARod, and he can do what he wants--the truth is that he blinked when the union flipped out, and he shouldn't have. First of all, he could legally do whatever the heck he wants--I'm sure the union would have been unhappy, but so what? They have no ability to FORCE him to do anything, other than exert pressure in the name of the players. Were they going to take him to court? Second, of all players ARod is bigger than the union. If he had really been gung-ho on the Sox, he could have told Fehr and the rest of the crew to go jump in a lake, and they would have had to accept it. Instead, he played the good soldier routine and the rest is history.

First, he couldn't do whatever he wanted there. The trade to Boston required him to take a $28.5 million paycut, which he was willing to do. Union said that trade could never happen because it was a paycut. A-Rod was even willing to pay Tom Hicks that amount back when the union first ixed the deal, but citing bad precedent, that idea also didn't happen. So it's not like he didn't try to get creative to make that trade work, even when he was told no by the union.

Second, no one's bigger than the union. No one. He could have told Fehr and the rest of the crew to go jump in a lake, and the nixed trade would have stood just the same. Without them signing off on it, it could never happen.

[YouLookAdopted]

I understand where you're coming from, but it's not like he's Neikro with sandpaper or vasoline in his cap. If that were Youkilis, we might see that as his being passionate about wanting to win.

Remember when Mike Lowell elbowed Robinson Cano in the midsection in an attempt to break up a double play AND sent Mientkiewicz to the hospital with a collision all in one night back in June? Well, A-Rod would replace that guy. Last I checked, A-Rod might have played dirty, but nowhere near like that.

But again, I do understand where you're coming from on this.

Not to get off topic, but you're the only person I've seen who has implied that Mike Lowell somehow intentionally collided with Mientkiewicz. During the play, you can clearly see that Jeter made a bad throw to first that was almost in the dirt and Mientkiewicz leaned out to the right of first base, right in front of Lowell, to try to pick it at the last moment. Lowell's thigh then hit Mientkiewicz's head. That was the classic definition of a freak accident and to say that it was a dirty play is extremely dubious.

And as far as the shot to Cano... that's called protecting your teammates. In baseball, pitchers will often retaliate against batters when the opposing pitcher hits their teammates. You sometimes see the same thing with position players on the basepaths... it's part of the game. Seems like everyone else understood that pretty well:

Mike Lowell took out Robinson Cano to prevent a double play Saturday afternoon, and after the game, Cano questioned the play. The next afternoon, Larry Bowa pulled Cano aside and asked him whether he understood why Lowell had done the right thing and made the correct play. "I understand it now," Cano said. "I should do the same thing in the same situation."

Per Gammons