23 replies to this topic

[Cuzittt]

Today's Games:

EL: Portland (Jon Lester) vs. Trenton (Jeff Karstens) [6:05pm]

Portland's roster is in flux. Kason Gabbard is on the DL, Charlie Zink has come back from Pawtucket. Craig Hansen is off the roster (but may be activated for the weekend). Chris Durbin will likely not play tonight due to family tragedy (Brother-in-Law killed in car accident in Texas). Oh... yeah, and the following from This article

[quote][T]he Trenton Thunder are 7-1 against the Sea Dogs at Hadlock Field.[/url]

NYPL: Lowell (?Ryan Phillips) @ Oneonta (TBD) [7:05pm]

Lowell's Tragic number is ONE. A Lowell loss or a Williamsport win keeps Lowell out of the playoffs.

-Brandon

Edited by Cuzittt, 07 September 2005 - 05:25 PM.

[ShaneTrot]

Last year, Lester threw 91.1 innings. This year he has thrown 148.1. Thats a big jump in workload. Should this be a concern? He has been dominant in his last two starts: IP 13, H 4, BB 2, Ks 12.


I guess with Sanchez having some problems, Hansen with a dead arm, and Lester having thrown a lot of innings plus Hanley being beat up during the year, I almost wish Portland had not made the playoffs.

[scotian1]

From what I have read Sanchez is also about 60 innings over what he has ever thrown in the past. Is this having an effect on them? I thought it was on Lester awhile back but he has had a couple of strong outings since his little slip. Hopefully Sanchez will recover as well and be a force in the playoffs. Although I can see your point of view about you wishing they were finished there is something to be said about playoff experince and the building of a winning attitude.
I am sure the Sox will be very careful of these players and will not put them at any risk. That being said to be in Portland tonight would be a great experience with close to 7,000 fans creating a sea of red.
Unless Lowell can pull off a miracle, Portland will have the only taste of playoff action down on the farm. Let us enjoy it.

[Cuzittt]

Unless Lowell can pull off a miracle, Portland will have the only taste of playoff action down on the farm. Let us enjoy it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How quickly we forget our GCL team. [They made the playoffs and lost their one game against the Yankees.]

-Brandon

[thisyearisthe]

Sanchez and Lester needed to get their innings up if they want to be on the big league roster next year. Spring training should be interesting, with Wells, Wake, Arroyo, Schilling, and Clement all signed through next year and Papelbon, Lester and Sanchez chomping at the bit...

I wouldn't be surprised if Papelbon supplants Arroyo in the rotation, but I imagine Lester and Sanchez will start in AAA.

[DLew On Roids]

I wouldn't be as worried about the increase in innings as I would be the sheer count. Coping with the workload increase is just part of a pitcher's development, and if Lester and Sanchez are going to learn to pitch at the ML level, right now they need to learn how to pitch at least 5-6 innings every 5th day.

[ese718xc]

I wouldn't be as worried about the increase in innings as I would be the sheer count.  Coping with the workload increase is just part of a pitcher's development, and if Lester and Sanchez are going to learn to pitch at the ML level, right now they need to learn how to pitch at least 5-6 innings every 5th day.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is it really a matter of "learning" how to throw 5-6 innings, or is it simply being physically able to throw more innings. Lester and Sanchez have the stuff to throw 200 innings, but with Lesters youth and Anibal's injury history I think it's more of a physical concern than a mental adjustment.

I'm not a scout or a coach so I simply don't know what is or is not a safe workload increase. I used to be a fairly serious runner, and any mileage increase of more than 10% per week is not a good idea. It's not like I needed to learn how to, or cope with greater mileage. There was only a certain amount of increase that my body could handle without injury.

I would also argue that their development should be focused on refining their secondary pitches and locating their fastball. The inning increase is merely a byproduct, as developing better pitches takes time.

Edited by ese718xc, 07 September 2005 - 01:22 PM.

[philly sox fan]

Within the last couple of year Tom Verducci started writing articles every off-season that pointed out a group of under 25 pitchers who saw an increase of 50 IP and then predicted that those players were candidates for decline.

The idea probably pre-dates him in some form or another, but he's been a big part of popularizing the importance of 50 IP increases.

It's something to be aware of in terms of the Sox minor leaguers, but I think it's more an issue of a young pitcher used to throwing 160 IP in the minors getting bumped up to 210, then it is for someone like Lester or Sanchez going from ~100 to ~150.

Protecting pitchers and erring on the side of caution is great, but these guys need to show endurance over a 6 month season and the only way to do that is by going out and doing it.

[soxfan121]

It's something to be aware of in terms of the Sox minor leaguers, but I think it's more an issue of a young pitcher used to throwing 160 IP in the minors getting bumped up to 210, then it is for someone like Lester or Sanchez going from ~100 to ~150.

Protecting pitchers and erring on the side of caution is great, but these guys need to show endurance over a 6 month season and the only way to do that is by going out and doing it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think the other factor at work here is that Lester must be added to the 40-man this off-season and Sanchez is already on the 40-man. Both are just 21 (is this still true for JL?) and in AA...headed for AAA next season. The Red Sox are running out of time & space on the developmental ladder for them to gradually increase their # of innings.

Granted, I was also the person who, after Sanchez's early exit with the tight forearm advocated "shut them all down". So...I think the point here is that I have no point.

There's also something to be said for "playoff experience", regardless of what level it comes at. Both of these guys, when (if) they get to Boston, will be expected to perform at a high level in pressure situations. One way to "ratchet up" the pressure in AA is with the playoffs and an added sense of responsibility to the team and teammates. It's not much, but it isn't nothing, either.

[ShaneTrot]

It's something to be aware of in terms of the Sox minor leaguers, but I think it's more an issue of a young pitcher used to throwing 160 IP in the minors getting bumped up to 210, then it is for someone like Lester or Sanchez going from ~100 to ~150.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think that you are right that the 50 inning jump in the minors is nothing compared to the jump from 160 innings in the minors to the 210 innings a major league starter would pitch. Plus I am sure Lester and Sanchez (most definitely when he was at Wilmington) face guys in the minors who have little or no chance to hit them whereas everyone in the Tampa Bay line up can hit them.

I looked at Brandon McCarthy minor league stats after he dominated the Sox Sunday. He went to Juco for a year, and was drafted in the 17th round in 2002 at 19 years of age then he pitched 78 innings for Chicago's rookie team in 2002. The Sox drafted Buchholz at the age of 20 and have only let him pitch ~40 innings at Lowell. McCarthy then pitched 101 innings at Great Falls, Chicago's rookie team in 2003.

Then last year, he pitched 94 innings at Kannapolis, then 52 innings at Winston-Salem (high A) and finally 26 innings at AA Birmingham. That's a lot of promotions in one year and >70 innings increase in workload. They really pushed him, his stats were good but not lights out (he had a 3.64 ERA at Kannapolis with a 113 ks in 94 innings, at AA, his ERA was 3.46 with 29 Ks in 26 innings.) This year he started at AAA. He's only 22.

After looking at how Chicago has managed his development, and yes its only one guy and he has a good fast ball with a great change up, it seems that Chicago is much more aggressive than the Sox with promotions.

Edited by ShaneTrot, 07 September 2005 - 02:23 PM.

[SpacemanzGerbil]

Protecting pitchers and erring on the side of caution is great, but these guys need to show endurance over a 6 month season and the only way to do that is by going out and doing it.

Could not agree with this more. Developing young pitchers whose ceilings are 180 IP for the duration of their per-arb years is far less valuable than those with the ability to handle higher work loads. To my knowledge, nobody's put anything together that clearly quantifies the additional risk of 170 IP vs 210 IP in the 25 and younger set. While I am sure the risk increases, the value of the ability to handle higher workloads would seemingly outweigh the cost of one or two additional $60k-$1.2M flameouts. Ramping up Lester and Sanchez to the point where they are capable of being in a ML rotation is far more important than what level they are pitching at in the grand scheme of things. One or both of them injuring themselves due to an increased ml workload is a risk but not a greater risk than slotting one of them into a major league rotation based on lower workload minor league performance.

What they are doing with Papelbon seems far more risky to me. Changing the pitch count limits and roles three times in one season has a higher likelyhood in resulting in fatigue situations that lead to mechanical breakdowns IMO.

[AZBlue]

One factor that is not often mentioned is that pitch counts of 25 or more in a single inning can be as much of a problem for a pitcher as are high total pitch counts for starts.

One reason that you sometimes see a prospect pulled from the game in the third or fourth inning even though the total number of pitches is not particularly high is that he may have had a couple of innings with very high pitch counts and the team doesn't want to send him again when his command and location are poor that night. Arm strain is significant when a pitcher approaches 30 pitches in a single inning.

Curt Schilling and David Wells have commented on this during the season (was it mentioned by Curt after his last start?).

[Cuzittt]

Chad Spann hits a Game Winning Walk-Off 9th inning Grand Slam with 2 outs to lead Portland to a 5-3 victory over Trenton in the first game of the Eastern League Northern Division Championship Series.

Jon Lester went the first 7 innings, giving up 4 hits and a walk, allowing 2 runs while striking out 9. Edgar Martinez pitched the 8th inning, giving up a hit, a walk and a run while striking out the side. Barry Hertzler started the 9th, hitting a batter and getting an out. Randy Beam came in to get the final 2 outs (via strikeout) while giving up a hit.

Chad Spann led the offense not only by his Grand Slam, but also by going 2/4. Brandon Moss also went 2/4 with a double. Hanley Ramirez, Dave Murphy, and Jared Sandberg each went 1/4, Sandberg with a SOLO HR. Jeremy West went 1/3 with a walk. Alberto Concepcion went 0/3 with a walk. Matt Van der Bosch went 0/3. Scott Youngbauer went 0/4.

Boxscore

-Brandon

Edited by Cuzittt, 07 September 2005 - 07:51 PM.

[AZBlue]

Phillips has given up no hits and four walks through 5 innings (Lowell up 8-0 in top of 6th).

[scotian1]

What a game, I listened to that one via the internet. They literally rose from the ashes in this one. Hopefully Sanchez has it tomorrow night. Lester actually pitched a good game and lack of timely hitting kept the Sea Dogs behind in the game until Spann made up for those runners left on base with his heroics.

[ese718xc]

Wow, what a thrill for Spann. I'm sure he'd have rather done it at Fenway, but that's still a feat that not even .01% of the population ever gets to experience.

[smastroyin]

Nice for Spann. One game does not a career make, but maybe some confidence will carry over into next season and he can establish himself as a prospect again.

[Cuzittt]

Lowell will not make the playoffs. Williamsport wins.

-Brandon

[The Gray Eagle]

"Chad Spann hits a Game Winning Walk-Off 9th inning Grand Slam with 2 outs to lead Portland to a 5-3 victory over Trenton"

I'd call that a clutch hit.

Even better that it comes against Trenton.

[Cuzittt]

Lowell defeats Oneonta, 11-6.

Ryan Phillips goes the first 5 innings, giving up 4 walks and a HBP, striking out 7. Matt Hancock followed with 1 1/3rd innings, giving up 5 hits and a walk, allowing 3 runs while striking out 1. James Baxter went the next 1 1/3 innings, giving up a SOLO HR and a HBP, allowing a run while striking out 2. Blake Maxwell went the final 1 1/3 innings, giving up 3 hits and 2 runs, striking out one.

Yahmed Yema led the hit-parade (18 hits for Lowell), going 4/6 with a double and a triple. Mitch Stachowsky went 3/4 with a HR and a HBP. Jed Lowrie went 3/4 with a double and 2 walks. Jacoby Ellsbury went 3/6 with a SB. Dustin Kelly went 2/6. Willy Mota went 1/2. Jay Johnson went 1/4. Matt Mercurio went 1/6. Jason Twomley went 0/3 with 3 walks. Zak Farkes went 0/4 with a walk.

Boxscore

-Brandon

[Cuzittt]

From Seadogs.com Game Story:

Spann hit his first Double-A home run on the first pitch thrown by losing pitcher Justin Pope. The victory was the first playoff walk-off home run in franchise history.

Trailing 3-1 entering the bottom of the ninth inning, Trenton closer Justin Pope was looking to complete a two-inning save. David Murphy began the inning with a lead single over the shortstop's head. After Jared Sandberg and Brandon Moss were retired, Pope walked Jeremy West and Alberto Concepcion to set up Spann's dramatic hit.

-Brandon

[Cuzittt]

MaineToday.com Seadogs gamestory

Jim Buckley catches playoff fever

-Brandon

[David Laurila]

The Sea Dogs win again, 5-2. Spann with go ahead HR.