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The next 48 hours


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#1 RedOctober3829


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Posted 29 July 2007 - 09:06 PM

Maybe this should be broken out into its own thread, but here it goes.

What should we expect around the league going into the next 48 hours? Are GMs finding out that their asking prices are too steep and therefore no deals will be made? Will contenders bite the bullet and trade prospects to improve their club and GFIN? Who absolutely has to make a move and who can afford to stand pat?

#2 wibi


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Posted 29 July 2007 - 09:15 PM

Maybe this should be broken out into its own thread, but here it goes.

What should we expect around the league going into the next 48 hours? Are GMs finding out that their asking prices are too steep and therefore no deals will be made? Will contenders bite the bullet and trade prospects to improve their club and GFIN? Who absolutely has to make a move and who can afford to stand pat?


Probably is worth its own thread but a mod can take care of that if needed.

I expect nothing major will happen in the next two days because most GMs arent willing to sell the majority of their top prospects for someone like Tiex. Unless the price to pick up players drops (and I see no reason for GMs to drop their asking price) I dont see anything major happening at this deadline. I expect players like Tiex will move in the offseason when teams can give up the players drafted in the 2007 draft.

#3 67WasBest


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Posted 29 July 2007 - 09:28 PM

Maybe this should be broken out into its own thread, but here it goes.

What should we expect around the league going into the next 48 hours? Are GMs finding out that their asking prices are too steep and therefore no deals will be made? Will contenders bite the bullet and trade prospects to improve their club and GFIN? Who absolutely has to make a move and who can afford to stand pat?


1) With every contender having flaws, I'm not sure any contending GM couldn't look at his roster and find a way he could compete against the teams they will likely face in the post season. If there is a fair chance of catching lightning in a bottle, why risk tens of millions on a deal that only slightly increases their chance of winning

2) The obscene moiney paid for talent last offseason and the crazy discussions about $35M per year contracts that are being tossed around this year and you have a very serious case for retaining 6 years of servitude from young talent.

3) The money each team receives for revenue sharing is removing a lot of the financial risk of carrying a contract to term. Add to this the two draft picks for supreme talent and you have a strong case for riding it out to the end.

The motivations on both sides of the discussion are strong and can be rationalized. Therefore I expect not much to happen.

#4 dcmissle


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Posted 29 July 2007 - 09:46 PM

1) With every contender having flaws, I'm not sure any contending GM couldn't look at his roster and find a way he could compete against the teams they will likely face in the post season. If there is a fair chance of catching lightning in a bottle, why risk tens of millions on a deal that only slightly increases their chance of winning

2) The obscene moiney paid for talent last offseason and the crazy discussions about $35M per year contracts that are being tossed around this year and you have a very serious case for retaining 6 years of servitude from young talent.

3) The money each team receives for revenue sharing is removing a lot of the financial risk of carrying a contract to term. Add to this the two draft picks for supreme talent and you have a strong case for riding it out to the end.

The motivations on both sides of the discussion are strong and can be rationalized. Therefore I expect not much to happen.



Whatever the cause, and I think you've identified some good ones, this is becoming a trend. I recall wistfully trading deadlines where numerous significant trades popped right at the deadline, breathlessly announced and analyzed. Remember Tom Seaver making a difference, and then Mike Boddicker? No more. Among the implications -- if you have your heart set on competing for a championship, and legitimately so, you'd better make damn sure your roster is set at the beginning of the season, and then you'd better pray for good health. The old school notion, "well, we're gonna see what we have in April, May, June, then fill from there" is now prohibitively expensive.

#5 Sille Skrub

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Posted 29 July 2007 - 09:50 PM

Breaking out as requested....

Anything to kill the megathread habit around here.

#6 Paul M


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Posted 29 July 2007 - 09:56 PM

Please use this thread for final news and musings on the deadline deals. 1,000+ replies just becomes unwieldy.

#7 GriffinDoerr


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Posted 29 July 2007 - 09:57 PM

Also to be taken under consideration are that nearly every team in MLB seems to have a shot (however slim) at the post-season. That reduces the list of fire-sellers significantly.

#8 Fratboy


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Posted 29 July 2007 - 09:57 PM

Please use this thread for final news and musings on the deadline deals. 1,000+ replies just becomes unwieldy.

Only news and ZERO speculation and rumors, right?

#9 67WasBest


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Posted 29 July 2007 - 10:08 PM

The old school notion, "well, we're gonna see what we have in April, May, June, then fill from there" is now prohibitively expensive.


I agree and what does this do to the Theo management philosophy of breaking the season into 3rds. With the first third spent evaluating talent, the second 3rd identifying ballplayers that can fix what's wrong and the third 3rd gelling for the playoffs. IMO, the only way you can operate that way is to have so much young talent you can afford to give excessive value for what you need. Perhaps the Sox ownership saw this day coming and this is one reason why they draft so many tough signs in later rounds and then go out and sign them. That or they were just trying to fill their system with as much talent as possible just to feed their own ML roster.

It seems this system has the potential to increase the gap between the monied franchises and those who work from a budget.

Edit: Sorry Paul, I was typing as you made your request for news only.

Edited by 67WasBest, 29 July 2007 - 10:09 PM.


#10 Paul M


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Posted 29 July 2007 - 10:15 PM

I didn't mean to say just news only, but the idle speculation and chatty posts started to fill up the thread. Just keep it substantive and in response to legit links, reports, etc.

Also, don't be afraid to post a new thread about a specific deal or player--though I imagine Corsi wins that game of rock, paper, scissors every time.

#11 Rough Carrigan


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Posted 29 July 2007 - 10:38 PM

Another factor contributing to the inaction may be the Colon trade of 2002 and the Kazmir trade a couple years later. At the same time as GM's seem to have wised up to the value of cheap talent you've got the shimmering mirage of cleaning some team out of all its top prospects lurking in the vision of GM's who're sellers. Thanks Omar Minaya and Chuck Lamarr!

#12 Guest_Corsi Combover_*

Posted 29 July 2007 - 10:47 PM

Serious question. Which thread should I use to post links? Do you really want me starting a new thread for every rumor?

#13 CSteinhardt


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Posted 29 July 2007 - 11:15 PM

With the other thread closed, I don't see any other place to put this - feel free to move it.

The way I see things, there are very few players of quality on the market right now and a lot of teams willing to give up truly A-level prospects for players who normally would not command such a return. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are in the happy position of having an excess of pitching depth in a season when there is absolutely nothing on the market, and much of the pitching depth is cost-controlled for a few years to come in a season when everybody is expecting salaries to skyrocket for offseason free agents.

So, now that the market for quality pitching seems to have a lot of buyers and very few sellers, shouldn't we be exploiting this by becoming sellers at the deadline? With Schilling coming back, comparable talent in AAA (Hansack, for example, and Buchholz will probably get a callup sometime this season as well, right?), isn't this a good time to find out whether somebody will overpay for Gabbard while his value is highest? Gabbard surely looks like a more attractive chance to catch lightning in a bottle than Contreras or Livan Hernandez, doesn't he?

Similarly, with Breslow looking good in AAA and continuing to be blocked and with the front end of the bullpen so strong, wouldn't it make sense to see whether one of Tavarez or Lopez attracts interest? Both are the types of bullpen arms that teams are looking for at the deadline, and the salaries are again lower than Octavio Dotel and his 1.52 WHIP.

The more I look at the market, the more I think that with so many buyers and so little available, the Sox might just manage to land themselves an A-level prospect for one of these from a team so desperate to show their fans they're going to contend (Rockies? Brewers?) that they absolutely need to make a deadline deal.

We could then turn around again and also try to be buyers for a bat, but the more I look at the market, the more I think that despite the PR hit that being "sellers" would mean in Boston, this is an ideal opportunity for us to pick up some talent on the cheap, and we should always exploit those sorts of inefficiencies. Actually, I'll throw one more concept out there - remember those rumors of a three-way deal in which the Sox would get Dye? If something like that happens, I'm thinking it's because the Sox realize that right now these pitchers are overvalued and would prefer to move one of them for the prospect that would be sent to Chicago.

Thoughts?

#14 SoxScout


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 12:46 AM

And in return for Gagne, the Rangers asked for outfielder Melky Cabrera, whom Cashman also doesn't want to trade.

There was some thought that the Indians had passed the Dodgers and become the favorites in the race to nab Octavio Dotel from Kansas City. The Royals apparently like Indians outfielder Ben Francisco. The Red Sox and several other teams remain in the hunt for Dotel.


http://www.nj.com/sp...?....xml&coll=1

#15 Sille Skrub

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 06:15 AM

Serious question. Which thread should I use to post links? Do you really want me starting a new thread for every rumor?

Use this one, Corsi. Major rumors like Gagne should get their own thread.

#16 possumbait


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 06:52 AM

While I would not have called the trading deadline an artificial event of the season, I have found that fans and players have given it 'special event' status. GM's are well advised to critical assess team needs and resources and not make dumb moves for the illusion of action. Theo has done this well last year, taking on a bit of criticism along the way.

#17 Carmen Fanzone


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 09:19 AM

Jayson Stark reporting via ESPN Insider that Octavio Dotel to the Dodgers is on the verge of not happening, and that KC may turn to the Red Sox "for someone like outfielder David Murphy."

#18 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 09:22 AM

Jayson Stark reporting via ESPN Insider that Octavio Dotel to the Dodgers is on the verge of not happening, and that KC may turn to the Red Sox "for someone like outfielder David Murphy."

I'd make that deal without a second thought.

#19 yecul


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 09:52 AM

Wow. I'm not a fan of Dotel's at this point given his WHIP and so forth, but that's a great deal for Boston. I have to assume Stark is off.

#20 SoxScout


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 10:19 AM

Gordon Edes, Globe Staff

A quick check-in on where the Red Sox stand with the trade deadline looming: There are no deals imminent at the moment. The Sox have a lot of irons in the fire, however, and are still hoping the price tags come down a lot before tomorrow’s 4 p.m. deadline.

We’ll be back with more later today ...

http://www.boston.co..._imminen_1.html

#21 RedOctober3829


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 10:31 AM

With the Teix deal going down, does this start the flurry of trades?

#22 ookami7m

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:00 AM

With the Teix deal going down, does this start the flurry of trades?



I think it sets off some of the minor moves but I doubt that there is any major impact outside of Arlington and Atlanta. I just keep reading and hearing that the market is out of control and no one wants to pay too much for their milk. I doubt any name bigger than Dye moves now that Teix is gone.

#23 ctsoxfan5

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:17 AM

Dye chances 'pretty good'
By Gordon Edes, Globe Staff

While Foxsports.com is reporting that the Braves and Rangers have a deal in place for Mark Teixeira, a major league source said a short time ago that chances were “pretty good” that the Red Sox would complete a deal with the Chicago White Sox for outfielder Jermaine Dye.

In exchange for Dye, the White Sox would get Wily Mo Pena and a minor league pitching prospect (not Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester).

More on this to come ...


http://www.boston.co...as/extra_bases/

#24 SaveBooFerriss


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:19 AM

In exchange for Dye, the White Sox would get Wily Mo Pena and a minor league pitching prospect (not Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester).


I am going out on a limb and guess it is Bowden. I hope it is not him or Masterson.

#25 Quintanariffic

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:21 AM

If it's WMP and Bowden or Masterson, I guess I could live with it but the rental aspect on Dye makes me uncomfortable. What really pisses me off is that this wouldn't be necessary is JD Drew didn't suck for $75MM. If it's WMP and anyone other than Buchholz, Lester, Bowden or Masterson, then I'm thrilled beyond belief.

#26 The Gray Eagle


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:27 AM

Globe


I'm afraid it's going to be Bowden, he's from the Chicago burbs, isnt he? They should have to throw in someone else if we give up Bowden and Wily Mo for a rental of a part-time player.

Dye could help this team, but it sounds like the White Sox want a ton for him.

#27 dcmissle


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:30 AM

I'm afraid it's going to be Bowden, he's from the Chicago burbs, isnt he? They should have to throw in someone else if we give up Bowden and Wily Mo for a rental of a part-time player.

Dye could help this team, but it sounds like the White Sox want a ton for him.



Get Dye here before Tito has to bat Drew 8th against Bedard, or sit him altogether. Everyone wants a ton for everyone. This is what happens when a major offseason pickup misfires.

#28 redinchicago

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:35 AM

I'm afraid it's going to be Bowden, he's from the Chicago burbs, isnt he? They should have to throw in someone else if we give up Bowden and Wily Mo for a rental of a part-time player.

Dye could help this team, but it sounds like the White Sox want a ton for him.


I don't think that really matters. From Chicago or not, the White Sox want who they believe is better. Masterson is probably a little closer to the majors and the White Sox may think that he can help out the bullpen next season, an area where they really need some help. I'm surprised it isn't Lowrie, considering the need for a SS in Chicago.

#29 Main Ingredient

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:41 AM

I don't think that really matters. From Chicago or not, the White Sox want who they believe is better. Masterson is probably a little closer to the majors and the White Sox may think that he can help out the bullpen next season, an area where they really need some help. I'm surprised it isn't Lowrie, considering the need for a SS in Chicago.



Is the price really going to be as steep as a Masterson / Bowden IN ADDITION to WMP for a couple month rental of Dye??

If that's the case I said screw this deal. I don't think Theo would be willing to give up that much. I would be more comfortable giving up Lowrie with WMP, but I think Lowrie would be too much as well.

I was thinking more along the lines of a Gabbard/Pauley/Hansen type with WMP... maybe I'm just vastly underestimating the ridiculousness of the trade market.

#30 Quintanariffic

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:44 AM

Well it won't be Gabbard if you believe the "minor league pitching prospect" part. I wouldn't mind parting with Hansen or Pauley or EMart or whatever other dross is in our system below Masterson and Bowden. I doubt that's the case though.

#31 Trautwein's Degree


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:48 AM

Is the price really going to be as steep as a Masterson / Bowden IN ADDITION to WMP for a couple month rental of Dye??


The answer is yes because of the increased revenue generated from each playoff game the Red Sox play and any other revenue that would accompany a World Series win. If Theo thinks that Dye is the difference between making the World Series and losing the ALCS then Wily Mo Pena and Michael Bowden are worth the price of admission.

#32 Harry Hooper


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:49 AM

http://www.boston.co...as/extra_bases/


FWIW, Gammons on ESPN last night thought Dye would end up in Boston.

#33 SaveBooFerriss


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 12:06 PM

Is the price really going to be as steep as a Masterson / Bowden IN ADDITION to WMP for a couple month rental of Dye??


It also depends on whether the Sox offer him arb? They could get two picks if he declines or get him for at least another year if accepts.

This really depends on how he performs the rest of the season and the post season. Look how D. Lowe impoved his stock in 04. If he plays great, it will be worth it. If he doesn't play well, it won't. That may seem trite, but that is the reality.

#34 RedOctober3829


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 12:20 PM

Dye for Pena/Delcarmen
Marte for Lowrie
Tavarez to Colorado for 1B Prospect
Call up Clay BUCHHOLZ

#35 The Gray Eagle


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 12:21 PM

Dye's current contract, from Cot's contracts:
2 years/$10.15M (2005-06), plus 2007 club option
2005:$4M, 06:$5M, 07:$6M club option ($1.15M buyout)

So how much could he get in arbitration, $8 million for one year? There's no way he'd take arbitration with the Red Sox, especially with no clear-cut lineup spot here. He'd want a multi-year deal someplace where he'd be guaranteed a job.

#36 Quintanariffic

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 12:25 PM

Dye's current contract, from Cot's contracts:
2 years/$10.15M (2005-06), plus 2007 club option
2005:$4M, 06:$5M, 07:$6M club option ($1.15M buyout)

So how much could he get in arbitration, $8 million for one year? There's no way he'd take arbitration with the Red Sox, especially with no clear-cut lineup spot here. He'd want a multi-year deal someplace where he'd be guaranteed a job.


Fine with me. That's two more high round draft picks to play with.

#37 SoxFanSince57


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 01:12 PM

Has anyone heard about this?

The Mets have talked with the A's about starting pitcher Joe Blanton, but Oakland wants Milledge and more, and the Mets can't deal Milledge right now with all of their outfield health issues. -- Star-Ledger

http://msn.foxsports.com/rumors/mlb#1

Damn........I this is remotely open, I would jump into it with both feet........Ellsbury, Bowden and more

#38 The Flying Dutchman

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 01:15 PM

Has anyone heard about this?


http://msn.foxsports.com/rumors/mlb#1

Damn........I this is remotely open, I would jump into it with both feet........Ellsbury, Bowden and more



You already have a decent post-season rotation, I'm not sure Blanton would be worth it unless Schilling was toast.

On second thought, it might not be a bad long term move with the plus of an upgrade this year. Blanton is only in his third year of service.

Edited by The Flying Dutchman, 30 July 2007 - 01:21 PM.


#39 Section15Box113

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 02:10 PM

Ronsenthal: Dotel to Braves?

The Braves could be on the verge of not only acquiring the best hitter on the trade market, but one of the best relievers as well.

In addition to reaching a preliminary agreement for Rangers first baseman Mark Teixeira, the Braves are close to a deal for Royals closer Octavio Dotel, according to major-league sources.
The Braves, Indians and Dodgers are the three finalists for Dotel, sources say. Royals general manager Dayton Moore, previously an executive with Atlanta, is intimately acquainted with the Braves' farm system.

The addition of Dotel would give the Braves a trio of formidable right-handers in the late innings -- Dotel, Rafael Soriano and Bob Wickman.

The Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers and Mariners also have shown interest in Dotel.


Edited by Section15Box113, 30 July 2007 - 02:11 PM.


#40 Mike in CT



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Posted 30 July 2007 - 02:17 PM

Mets close to deal for 2B Luis Castillo

http://msn.foxsports...b/story/7074758

#41 E5 Yaz


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 02:22 PM

Mets close to deal for 2B Luis Castillo

http://msn.foxsports...b/story/7074758



I wonder what the Twins would give up for jed lowrie.

#42 swany

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 02:44 PM

I wonder what the Twins would give up for jed lowrie.


Not much. They have Alexi Casilla and Jason Bartlett set at 2B and SS for the next few years.

#43 Carmen Fanzone


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 04:32 PM

Olney on ESPN Insider saying Dodgers-Yankees talking Proctor for Betamit. Also saying Dodgers have been told they are not getting Dotel.

#44 Steve Dillard


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 04:38 PM

Wow. Just a jaw-dropping moment on EEI. Tony Mazzarotti, the Herald baseball writer, had to have Sean McAdam explain to him that Lancaster is a hitter's park, after Mazzarotti said Masterson's 4.7 ERA was not impressive. Maz: "You mean like the PCL?" McAdam: "No, worse, about 40 MPH winds." Mazz: "Oh...."

This guy doesn't even know about the biggest hole in the development chain? I'm surprised he isn't advocating that Bubba Bell is untouchable.

#45 dcmissle


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 04:54 PM

With the Teix deal going down, does this start the flurry of trades?



Anyone share my impression that the FO needs a closer -- not for the team on the field, for the front office? It's nothing more than an impression, but I get the sense that Theo and the boys are midwives in an elephant preserve. Everything seems long and drawn out, convoluted and dramatic.

That's not necessarily a criticism, as I don't know the details. They are right, of course, to turn down bad deals. They probably perservere when many others would give up. But at the same time, some clubs are doing deals of importance, and I can't believe that potential trade partners are screwing with the RS for the sake of screwing with the RS.

Edited by dcmissle, 30 July 2007 - 04:55 PM.


#46 URI


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 04:56 PM

Anyone share my impression that the FO needs a closer -- not for the team on the filed, for the front office? It's nothing more than an impression, but I get the sense that Theo and the boys are midwives in an elephant preserve. Everything seems long and drawn out, convoluted and dramatic.

That's not necessarily a criticism, as I don't know the details. They are right, of course, to turn down bad deals. They probably perservere when many others would give up. But at the same time, some clubs are doing deals of importance, and I can't believe that potential trade partners are screwing with the RS for the sake of screwing with the RS.


Like the Nomar trades, both Mirabelli trades, the Renteria trade, the Lugo signing, moving Papelbon to closer both times etc etc etc?

#47 Paul M


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 05:00 PM

With the lead we have, we can probably afford to wait it out. I am not as discouraged I guess.

There are a couple pieces that would look good, but we are getting back a playoff rotation starter next week.

Also, our chief competition for the pennant aren't making big moves either. Really, other than Atlanta's unique surplus, who is dealing top prospects?

#48 mabrowndog


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 05:01 PM

With the Teix deal going down, does this start the flurry of trades?


No official announcement yet, but the Braves and Royals have agreed on Octavio Dotel for RHP Kyle Davies, according to Rotoworld.

The KC Star reports the only holdup is "on the Braves’ end and concerns their ability to work out final details on a trade earlier in the day in which they acquired first baseman Mark Teixeira and reliever Ron Mahay."

Edited by mabrowndog, 30 July 2007 - 05:02 PM.


#49 dcmissle


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Posted 30 July 2007 - 05:12 PM

Like the Nomar trades, both Mirabelli trades, the Renteria trade, the Lugo signing, moving Papelbon to closer both times etc etc etc?



I was thinking more in terms of the A-Rod drama, the quest to find a CF -- which meandered through Seattle and the now immortal Jeremy Reed before they settled on Coco -- and the eventual flipping of Andy Marte.

Edited by dcmissle, 30 July 2007 - 05:12 PM.


#50 The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 05:19 PM

Olney on ESPN Insider saying Dodgers-Yankees talking Proctor for Betamit. Also saying Dodgers have been told they are not getting Dotel.


Just like Buster's been flogging that Piazza to LAAA trade? I can't believe Proctor and his abused arm would be enough to get Betemit.