152 replies to this topic

[sodenj5]

WMB currently leads the Salem Sox in AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. In the Carolina league, he is 3rd in OBP, 7th in SLG, 3rd in AVG, and 4th in OPS. He went 2-4 last night with a double.

[Eric Van]

Posted to a fanpost at Sickels' blog:

How Lucky Has He Been?

At first glance you’d say he’s definitely been very lucky on balls in play; his BA on grounders is .294, he’s had 4 fly ball OF 1B versus 21 outs, and his BABIP on LD is .867 — all of these high figures. mlSplits knocks 6 hits off his line when adjusting for luck.

However: they have him as 10 hits lucky in ’08 and 7 hits lucky in ’09; in all three seasons they have him lucky in all three batted ball types. You would expect that to be the case for 1 in every 512 (2^9) players in the minors, at random. Given that he has exceeded the luck-neutral line by 2 or 3 hits in many of the 9 cases, I think we can be pretty certain that some of what mlSplits thinks is luck is actually skill — that is, he hits the ball really hard and has a higher-than average BABIP even given his GB/FB ratio and LD%.

I’d split the difference between his actual and luck-adjusted lines, which puts him at about .323 / .408 / .530, which is a tremendous luck-neutral performance.

[Joshv02]

I'm sure this is the wrong thread, but...

There are roughly 5000 professional baseball players in affiliated ball, with hundreds/thousands of 30 game stretches. So, we'd expect something that happens roughly 1:500 times over 30 game stretches to happen fairly often over the course of a season. When we see it, it doesn't mean its not luck (or that it is).

[radsoxfan]

Posted to a fanpost at Sickels' blog:

How Lucky Has He Been?

At first glance you’d say he’s definitely been very lucky on balls in play; his BA on grounders is .294, he’s had 4 fly ball OF 1B versus 21 outs, and his BABIP on LD is .867 — all of these high figures. mlSplits knocks 6 hits off his line when adjusting for luck.

However: they have him as 10 hits lucky in ’08 and 7 hits lucky in ’09; in all three seasons they have him lucky in all three batted ball types. You would expect that to be the case for 1 in every 512 (2^9) players in the minors, at random. Given that he has exceeded the luck-neutral line by 2 or 3 hits in many of the 9 cases, I think we can be pretty certain that some of what mlSplits thinks is luck is actually skill — that is, he hits the ball really hard and has a higher-than average BABIP even given his GB/FB ratio and LD%.

I’d split the difference between his actual and luck-adjusted lines, which puts him at about .323 / .408 / .530, which is a tremendous luck-neutral performance.

So what you're saying is that Middlebrooks hits his individual hit types significantly harder than other players hit their individual hit types. Is there any major league precedent for such things. For example, do great hitters like Pujols have a higher than average hit percentage on line drives because their line drives are hit "extra hard"?

I'm not saying you are necessarily wrong, but if this type of thing exists, I would expect it to turn up in some other great hitters' numbers. Although admittedly I have never seen him play in person, I doubt Middlebrooks has some ability to hit the ball harder than say current-Pujols, prime-Manny, prime-Bonds, etc. And if other great hitters that subjectively hit the ball "very hard" don't tend to out perform their expected numbers, I would tend to think this is simply luck that will even out.

It would also be interesting to see if anyone in the majors does consistently out perform their expected numbers year after year. What if it turns out a crappy hitter like Adam Everett is an "outperformer" for example? Would that player have an actual skill of "hitting 'em where they aint"? Or does that mean scouts are doing a bad job recommending a proper defensive shift for a particular player, therefore leading to more hits than they might otherwise deserve?

Edited by radsoxfan, 16 May 2010 - 02:17 AM.

[SoxScout]

So what you're saying is that Middlebrooks hits his individual hit types significantly harder than other players hit their individual hit types. Is there any major league precedent for such things. For example, do great hitters like Pujols have a higher than average hit percentage on line drives because their line drives are hit "extra hard"?

Isn't this exactly what makes great hitters great? Great hitters square up more balls than every one else and hit the ball harder.

[radsoxfan]

Isn't this exactly what makes great hitters great? Great hitters square up more balls than every one else and hit the ball harder.

Well of course, but this would show up as a higher percentage of line drives. I'm asking . . once you have determined a hit is a line drive for example, do great hitters typically get a higher percentage of hits on those balls than average of below average hitters?

I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case. But I think EV's argument would be stronger if he could show that the phenomenon he is claiming accounts for Middlebrooks' numbers actually does exist for elite players.

Edit: and of course all of this data assumes accurate categorization of LD, GB, and FB rates, which I'm not sure is the case with all of the variation between classifiers. And I am even more skeptical of Minor league numbers.

Edited by radsoxfan, 16 May 2010 - 12:01 PM.

[SoxScout]

Here is my 3-minute study, but I GUESS it would hold true:

2009 BABIP on Line Drives:

MLB .723
AL .730
NL .719

Top 10 hitters in 2009 based on wOBA, with their BABIP on LD:

Pujols .783
Mauer .781
Fielder .759
Votto .753
Youkilis .818
Lee .803
H.Ramirez .750
Zobrist .670
Braun .730
A.Rodriguez .758

[sodenj5]

WMB keeps on keeping on. He continues to battle with K's, having a pair of 3K games in his last 10 games, but he also continues to draw walks. It's hard to tell from his numbers, but I would like to think that his strikeouts and his results this year are a result of his approach to work deeper counts and draw walks. His K% is down to 20.3%, compared to 29.0% last year, and his BB% is up slightly to 12.3%, compared to 11.2% last year. Judging from those numbers, it would seem that he's maybe not walking a lot more, but certainly being more selective and making good contact when he gets a pitch to hit.

WMB Year to Date

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
SAL	CAR	.350	31	117	26	41	13	1	3	18	65	17	28	3	0	.442	.556	.998

[radsoxfan]

Here is my 3-minute study, but I GUESS it would hold true:

2009 BABIP on Line Drives:

MLB .723
AL .730
NL .719

Top 10 hitters in 2009 based on wOBA, with their BABIP on LD:

Pujols .783
Mauer .781
Fielder .759
Votto .753
Youkilis .818
Lee .803
H.Ramirez .750
Zobrist .670
Braun .730
A.Rodriguez .758

Nice, somewhat convincing just at first glance without analyzing it. Zobrist underperformed, Braun was about average, and everyone else did better than average.

Of course when you look at a list like that, you have to ask if perhaps some of those guys were actually in the top 10 wOBA BECAUSE they were lucky with their LD% BABIP in the first place. It's a bit of a biased sample in that regard. It might be more helpful to look at a list of the top BABIP on LDs last year, and see if it's a list of "top" hitters or more of a random sampling. Perhaps their years wouldn't have been quite as good without a bit of a boost from "luck" on those balls. It's less of an issue for consistent top 10 wOBA guys like Pujols of course.

Do Pujols, Mauer, Arod consistently out-perform their expected values year after year? It would also be interesting to see if top hitters do better on grounders and fly balls as well. I would also be curious to see who had lower than average BABIP on line drives. Are those all crappy hitters? Or...where did you get those numbers and I'll look myself.

Edited by radsoxfan, 16 May 2010 - 12:52 PM.

[SoxScout]

Splits for the AL: http://www.baseball-.../...ar=2010&t=b

Splits for Mauer: http://www.baseball-.../...ar=2010&t=b


year, al babip, mauer, pujols, arod

09 730, 781, 783, 758
08 720, 789, 789, 763
07 728, 733, 794, 772

Edited by SoxScout, 16 May 2010 - 12:25 PM.

[Quintanariffic]

Splits for the AL: http://www.baseball-.../...ar=2010&t=b

Splits for Mauer: http://www.baseball-.../...ar=2010&t=b


year, al babip, mauer, pujols, arod

09 730, 781, 783, 758
08 720, 789, 789, 763
07 728, 733, 794, 772

Good stuff. While coincidence isn't causation, it seems intuitive that the best hitters have the ability to more consistently square up the ball. that's what makes them elite. I don't know if WMB fits that mold, but skilled observers have always noted that when he squares up the ball, it really moves, so there's reason to be hopeful on that score.

[amarshal2]

WMB keeps on keeping on. He continues to battle with K's, having a pair of 3K games in his last 10 games, but he also continues to draw walks. It's hard to tell from his numbers, but I would like to think that his strikeouts and his results this year are a result of his approach to work deeper counts and draw walks. His K% is down to 20.3%, compared to 29.0% last year, and his BB% is up slightly to 12.3%, compared to 11.2% last year. Judging from those numbers, it would seem that he's maybe not walking a lot more, but certainly being more selective and making good contact when he gets a pitch to hit.

I really don't follow your thinking. You seem to be looking for a reason his K rate went up (when it actually went down, which you acknowledge by speculating that he might be working deeper counts -- even though his there hasn't been a meaningful change in his walk rate.

Looking at his numbers, the story here is that his K rate has come down big time. A 29% K rate is a major red flag. A 20.3% K rate is high but within the realm of "normal" when it comes to prospect status.

Middlebrooks has quick wrists and plus bat speed. When he hits the ball, he hits it hard. BABIP by year:
2008: .385
2009: .377
2010: .442

I think there's reason to believe he'll be an above average babip guy in the future.

Edited by amarshal2, 16 May 2010 - 01:55 PM.

[Plympton91]

Good stuff. While coincidence isn't causation, it seems intuitive that the best hitters have the ability to more consistently square up the ball. that's what makes them elite. I don't know if WMB fits that mold, but skilled observers have always noted that when he squares up the ball, it really moves, so there's reason to be hopeful on that score.

As you know, since you've been posting in here since last season, Middlebrooks's second half last season kind of foretold his breakout this season. If he keeps it up another month, they may have to think about a promotion after the A-ball all- star games.

[JakeRae]

As you know, since you've been posting in here since last season, Middlebrooks's second half last season kind of foretold his breakout this season. If he keeps it up another month, they may have to think about a promotion after the A-ball all- star games.

If he keeps it up, it could come even earlier than that. This organization has pretty consistently been more aggressive promoting players than most of us have expected. I could see a promotion coming within a week or two if he keeps hitting like this. After the all-star game, if he is still hitting even close to as well as he is now, he would pretty much have to get promoted.

[Eric Van]

So what you're saying is that Middlebrooks hits his individual hit types significantly harder than other players hit their individual hit types. Is there any major league precedent for such things. For example, do great hitters like Pujols have a higher than average hit percentage on line drives because their line drives are hit "extra hard"?

I'm not saying you are necessarily wrong, but if this type of thing exists, I would expect it to turn up in some other great hitters' numbers. Although admittedly I have never seen him play in person, I doubt Middlebrooks has some ability to hit the ball harder than say current-Pujols, prime-Manny, prime-Bonds, etc. And if other great hitters that subjectively hit the ball "very hard" don't tend to out perform their expected numbers, I would tend to think this is simply luck that will even out.

All this likely to be true of MLB (or at least difficult to measure) and almost certainly grossly untrue in the minors. You think that the aforementioned hitters, when in the minors, hit their ground balls no harder than, say, Ryan Khoury or Dusty Brown? The MLB hitters have undergone a massive selection process.

BTW, Baseball HQ's estimator for luck-free BA uses Iso to modify BA on ground balls.

[Eric Van]

There are roughly 5000 professional baseball players in affiliated ball, with hundreds/thousands of 30 game stretches. So, we'd expect something that happens roughly 1:500 times over 30 game stretches to happen fairly often over the course of a season. When we see it, it doesn't mean its not luck (or that it is).

In fact, there are about 30 x 4 x [8 or 9] regular position players in the minors right now, which is 900-1000. For guys with 3 years of experience, it's probably something like 600-650.

And I wasn't talking about 1:512 in a 30-game stretch selected from among a whole season. I'm talking about an entire season, an entire season, and the first 30 games of a third season, with no degree of freedom. WMB has been "lucky" on all three batted ball types in each season.

As I said, it's very simple. If you looked at all 650 guys who are playing regular and are in their third year or more, you would expect 1 in 512 to have been "lucky" on all three types of batted balls all three years, if what mlSplits calls "luck" were all luck and no skill. IOW, one guy. Is WMB that guy? My guess is that there are in fact a heck of a lot more than one such guy because there are players who hit their batted balls harder than others.

[Eric Van]

PT (IBC, NH): If he keeps going like he has, is Will Middlebrooks the top 3B prospect in the Red Sox system?

Ben Badler: I think he's already the top 3B in the Red Sox system and moving in to the echelon of one of the better 3B prospects in any system.

[someoneanywhere]

If he keeps it up, it could come even earlier than that. This organization has pretty consistently been more aggressive promoting players than most of us have expected. I could see a promotion coming within a week or two if he keeps hitting like this. After the all-star game, if he is still hitting even close to as well as he is now, he would pretty much have to get promoted.

By all accounts, the most significant transition in the minors is from A-ball to AA. (That's why you see so many guys who solve AA jumped to the majors above the organizational soldiers who typically man AAA rosters.) If it were my club, I'd want to see first how WMB responds to a fit of failure. I'd want to see how he deals with the adjustments pitchers will inevitably make to him. So that's the AS break at the very least.

And if he doesn't find failure by then -- or failure doesn't find him -- you have an answer.

Edited by someoneanywhere, 19 May 2010 - 09:51 AM.

[radsoxfan]

All this likely to be true of MLB (or at least difficult to measure) and almost certainly grossly untrue in the minors. You think that the aforementioned hitters, when in the minors, hit their ground balls no harder than, say, Ryan Khoury or Dusty Brown? The MLB hitters have undergone a massive selection process.

BTW, Baseball HQ's estimator for luck-free BA uses Iso to modify BA on ground balls.

I certainly see your point about the selection process. So it would be of little value to compare a minor leaguer's BAPIP to league average, since of course then you get the Ryan Khourys of the world lumped into that league average.

But I am guessing there is some general BABIP that is typical on certain types of batted balls across all of professional baseball. And I would guess the fielding skill in the minors isn't so much worse as to skew the numbers very dramatically.

For example, I would assume that the BABIP on line drives never approaches .900 even if 2001 Manny Ramirez played in AA. So if you have a minor league hitter who has that BABIP on liners, you must be willing to say there is some luck involved. It doesn't matter that a crappy minior league hitter might have .600 average on line drives put in play if you are comparing Middlebrook's average to a typical baseball standard. It only matters if you are comparing those numbers to "league average" and he is in a league full of noodle bats.

Put another way, if you are concerned about the selection bias, just compare Middlebrook's numbers to MLB averages instead of BABIP in his league. Sure defense is better in the majors, but I doubt it would skew the numbers so much as to render them useless.

[sodenj5]

By all accounts, the most significant transition in the minors is from A-ball to AA. (That's why you see so many guys who solve AA jumped to the majors above the organizational soldiers who typically man AAA rosters.) If it were my club, I'd want to see first how WMB responds to a fit of failure. I'd want to see how he deals with the adjustments pitchers will inevitably make to him. So that's the AS break at the very least.

And if he doesn't find failure by then -- or failure doesn't find him -- you have an answer.

You must have missed the majority of his first 2 years. WMB hasn't just shown up and started setting the world on fire. He's struggled quite a bit in his first 2 years in A Ball. He's battled strikeouts and made adjustments to the pitchers, and the results finally started to show at the end of last year. He's carried that over into this year, and he's finally starting to emerge.

[sodenj5]

Business as usual for WMB. He continues to put up great numbers in Salem. Also, he has cracked the top 10 over at SoxProspects.

WMB Last 10 Games

Date	OPP	AVG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
May 12	FRE	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	.200	.000	.200
May 13	FRE	1.000	2	1	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	1.000	2.000	3.000
May 14	@MB	.250	4	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	.400	.500	.900
May 15	@MB	.600	5	2	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	.667	.600	1.267
May 16	@MB	.400	5	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.400	.600	1.000
May 18	@KIN	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	.667
May 18	@KIN	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.333	.000	.333
May 19	@KIN	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	.500	.000	.500
May 20	@KIN	.400	5	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.400	.400	.800
May 21	POT	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	.400	.250	.650
Totals		.343	35	4	12	2	1	0	4	9	9	0	0	.478	.457	.935

WMB Year to Date

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
SAL	CAR	.341	37	138	26	47	14	1	3	19	72	21	34	3	0	.436	.522	.957

Edited by sodenj5, 23 May 2010 - 08:09 AM.

[sodenj5]

After his scorching start to the season, WMB has come back to earth recently. Not sure if this is primarily a stretch where pitchers have adjusted to WMB, or if he has just been in a funk. His average has taken a significant dive, but it seems in his last 10 games or so, he's come back to life, hitting 3 dingers in 2 games this week.

WMB Last 10 Games

Date	OPP	AVG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jun 29	@WS	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	.250	.250	.500
Jun 30	FRE	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Jul 01	FRE	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.250	.250	.500
Jul 02	FRE	.500	4	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.750	1.250
Jul 03	@MB	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Jul 04	@MB	.500	4	1	2	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	.500	.750	1.250
Jul 05	@MB	.600	5	3	3	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	.600	1.200	1.800
Jul 07	@KIN	.500	4	2	2	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	.500	2.000	2.500
Jul 08	@KIN	.250	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	.400	.250	.650
Jul 09	@KIN	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Totals		.300	40	9	12	2	0	3	12	1	11	0	0	.317	.575	.892

WMB Year to Date

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
SAL	CAR	.285	73	284	46	81	23	2	7	45	129	25	83	3	1	.345	.454	.799

[sodenj5]

WMB is beginning to smolder once again.

WMB Last 10 Games

Date	OPP	AVG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jul 04	@MB	.500	4	1	2	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	.500	.750	1.250
Jul 05	@MB	.600	5	3	3	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	.600	1.200	1.800
Jul 07	@KIN	.500	4	2	2	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	.500	2.000	2.500
Jul 08	@KIN	.250	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	.400	.250	.650
Jul 09	@KIN	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Jul 12	POT	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	.667
Jul 12	POT	.667	3	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	.667	.667	1.333
Jul 14	WS	.667	3	1	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.750	.667	1.417
Jul 15	WS	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.400	.250	.650
Jul 16	WS	.400	5	1	2	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	.500	.400	.900
Totals		.410	39	10	16	1	0	3	17	4	9	0	0	.465	.667	1.132

[SoxScout]

The feature of Pete Abe's minor league notebook is on WMB: http://www.boston.co...rd_base?mode=PF

“It takes experience,’’ he said. “Over the last two years, I’ve become a lot better at recognizing pitches that I can handle and learning what I can’t. It’s not so much taking pitches or seeing a lot of pitches; it’s making sure you swing at the right pitch. Sometimes that’s the first pitch you get.’’

Middlebrooks has watched his batting average and slugging percentage rise each season — starting at .254 with Lowell in 2008, then rising to .265 with Greenville last season. Of his 12 home runs this season, eight have come since July 7.

“I would say I’m growing into my body more,’’ he said. “I’m stronger and quicker to the ball than I ever have been. The power I have now is all a product of working hard in the offseason.’’

“This is the most fun I have ever had playing baseball,’’ Middlebrooks said. “Not once have I dreaded coming to the park.’’

Middlebrooks will finish the season with close to 500 plate appearances. Rather than have him play in the Arizona Fall League, the Sox would prefer he take some time away.

“He has built up a lot of volume,’’ Hazen said. “Will has had a good year and getting some time off is important. Just head home and relax.’’

[sodenj5]

WMB off to a strong start to start out his AA campaign:

WMB Year to Date

AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
0.326	12	46	7	15	5	1	2	6	28	2	11	1	0	0.354	0.609	0.963

Obviously, his K:BB ratio is attrocious, but everything else seems positive.

Also, an article on ESPN Boston, courtesy of soxprospects, gives a nice breakdown of the third base position in the organization.

Link

Edited by sodenj5, 22 April 2011 - 08:46 AM.

[sodenj5]

WMB continues his hot start.

A great write up of WMB was just posted over on soxprospects.com. WMB is currently ranked #6 over at SoxProspects.

Link.

Edited by sodenj5, 10 May 2011 - 06:36 PM.

[gammoseditor]

WMB continues his hot start.

A great write up of WMB was just posted over on soxprospects.com. WMB is currently ranked #6 over at SoxProspects.

[link]http://news.soxprosp...ddlebrooks.html[/link]

He's having a great year but I'm not sure now is the right time to call him hot. He's got a 730 OPS in his last 9 games with 0 walks and 11 strikeouts.

[John DiFool]

He's having a great year but I'm not sure now is the right time to call him hot. He's got a 730 OPS in his last 9 games with 0 walks and 11 strikeouts.

Yeah, long term that poor plate discipline will really hold him back, hot start or not. Then again that has been known to turn around (e.g. Reddick).

[SoxScout]

Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox (Double-A Portland): 0-for-3, RBI, 2 BB, 2 K. Numbers from hot start are quickly diminishing; 6-for-43 (.140) in last 12 games and down to .282/.319/.474.

Goldstein: http://www.baseballp...articleid=14058

[sodenj5]

So, to update, Middlebrooks started at 3B in both the Futures game and the Eastern League All-Star Game. He got off to a hot start, then stumbled a bit, but has seemed to find a nice consistency in AA, putting up very good numbers.

WMB Year to Date

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LOW	NYP	.333	4	12	4	4	1	0	3	6	14	2	1	1	0	.400	1.167	1.567
POR	EAS	.310	66	252	40	78	16	1	10	46	126	17	62	5	0	.357	.500	.857
Minors		.311	70	264	44	82	17	1	13	52	140	19	63	6	0	.359	.530	.889

WMB Last 10 Games

Date	OPP	AVG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jul 03	NH	.250	4	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	.250	.500	.750
Jul 04	@BIN	1.000	3	3	3	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	1.000	1.333	2.333
Jul 05	@BIN	.500	4	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	.500	.500	1.000
Jul 05	@BIN	1.000	5	3	5	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.600	2.600
Jul 06	@BIN	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.333	.333	.667
Jul 07	@BIN	.400	5	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.400	.600	1.000
Jul 08	@NH	.000	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Jul 14	NBR	.333	3	1	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	.500	1.333	1.833
Jul 15	NBR	.000	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.200	.000	.200
Jul 16	NBR	.250	4	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	.250	.500	.750
Totals		.400	40	11	16	4	0	2	12	3	9	0	0	.455	.650	1.105

Also, here's an interview with WMB just after his All-Star appearances. I'd contend that with Kalish's mostly lost year, Middlebrooks' sustained success throughout this season at AA, and the plus defense he plays at a premium position, Middlebrooks is making a strong case for the top prospect in the system. He's ranked #42 in Keith Law's new Top 50.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'm at McCoy tonight and got to see Middlebrooks hit a granny. Banuelos was wild all inning, went down 2-0 and it looked like he decided to start grooving pitches rather than walk a run in. After a strike down the middle, he threw a strike on the outside part of the plate and Middlebrooks went opposite field with it.

He has a really smooth stroke. The ball went about 360 feet, so not a huge bomb, but a good poke.

[SoxScout]

Here is an AFL interview with Will: http://mlb.mlb.com/v...ent_id=19967019

He is hitting .250/.300/.518, 4 HR, 3 2B in 56 AB. Unfortunately that comes with 4 BB and 19 K. He addresses K's in the interview.

[sodenj5]

WMB is currently tearing the cover off the ball down in Triple A putting up A line of .377/.406/.721 with 6 homers, 20 RBIs, and 2 steals, and homering in each of his last 3 games, and 5 of his last 7. He's clearly regarded as the Sox' best prospect, but is this the year that Middlebrooks makes the leap to being a truly elite prospect? Either way, good to see him off to a hot start after struggling during his initial call up last year and during the AFL.

I'd say there's a really good chance he sees some action in Boston this year with Youk looking like a shell of himself presently and pretty much a lock to see the DL at some point this year.

Edited by sodenj5, 21 April 2012 - 08:19 AM.

[RoDaddy]

Another dinger tonight. I like Middlebrooks as an all-round prospect, but he's hitting way over his head right now. So what, though. I love the 1.2 OPS!

[mabrowndog]

WMB was set to appear on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan this morning, but the hosts just announced they'll have to reschedule since Will is "a little under the weather".

No idea if his illness will keep him out of tonight's game in Columbus.

[mabrowndog]

Will named Minor League Player of the Week by MLB.com

It was a tough call between a third baseman and a first baseman for Prospect Watch Player of the Week honors, but the guy at the hot corner got the nod.

Will Middlebrooks, the Red Sox's future third baseman (No. 1 on the Red Sox's Top 20 prospects list, No. 55 on the overall Top 100), had his power swing working for Triple-A Pawtucket. The third baseman hit five homers and drove in 15 runs over the course of the week (last Thursday through Wednesday).

His .400/.500/1.08 line raised his overall numbers to .377/.429/.792 with nine homers and 27 RBIs. He entered games on Thursday tied for second in all of the Minor Leagues in both home runs and runs batted in.

Astros first baseman Jonathan Singleton (Houston's No. 1 prospect; No. 43 overall) wasn't far behind. He hit .462/.533/.962 with three homers and eight RBIs for his week. He's now hitting .368/.456/.662 with three homers and 13 RBIs for the year.

He's also #1 on Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet this week.

Why He's Here: .400/.520/1.100 (8-for-20), 7 R, 1 3B, 4 HR, 11 RBIs, 5 BB, 4 SO, 1-for-1 SB.

The Scoop: The two hottest hitters in the International League in April have been Middlebrooks and Toldeo first baseman Brad Eldred. The Tigers called up Eldred yesterday, but the 31-year-old minor league veteran may simply be enjoying one of the best months of his career. For Middlebrooks, however, this recent surge could mean oh so much more, especially in light of his youth. At 23, he's young for the Triple-A level.

Middlebrooks is an excellent athlete who last year started to turn his quality tools into on-field production. This year, we may be seeing him make the jump from top prospect to an elite one. He has excellent bat speed with a swing that produces both loft and backspin. At the rate he's going, he could reach double digits for home runs by the end of April. He hit a career-high 23 last year.

Middlebrook's early hot streak comes with no caveats. He's hitting nearly equally well against lefthanders and righthanders, and his home/road splits are close to identical as well. The below-average runner is even 3-for-3 on steals this month. But even in light of Boston's slow start, the Red Sox have little reason to rush Middlebrooks, not with regular third baseman Kevin Youkilis entering an option year in 2013.

[alwyn96]

I'm having a really hard time seeing a deal happening this season. If Youkilis is hitting, he's one of the best 3B in the league, and you wouldn't want to trade him. If he's not, teams aren't going to want him much and you won't get much decent in return.

Youkilis probably need to move back to 1B or to DH in order to extend his career. He's a great hitter when healthy, and I'd bet he probably has another couple 380 OBP seasons in him if he could move to a less demanding position. Unfortunately with Gonzalez here to stay and Ortiz being a local legend and still a good hitter, there isn't really room for Youkilis in those spots.

Middlebrooks is hitting like crazy now, but we've seen him go hot and cold before. The worst situation would be to trade Youkilis to promote Middlebrooks only to find Middlebrooks go through a cold streak during a pennant race with Little Nicky Punto as your best backup option and Kevin Youkilis hitting like an All-Star somewhere else. I think you see how he adjusts when pitchers start giving him less to hit, and if he handles it well, maybe you start making some calls about landing spots for Youkilis in 2013. Assuming he's not filling in for an injured Youkilis in 2021 already, if Middlebrooks finishes with a strong year, you make him the starter for 2013, and find him a decent backup - like an Ian Stewart/Bill Hall/Wilson Betemit/Chris Davis type, but probably none of those guys.

[JakeRae]

I'm having a really hard time seeing a deal happening this season. If Youkilis is hitting, he's one of the best 3B in the league, and you wouldn't want to trade him. If he's not, teams aren't going to want him much and you won't get much decent in return.

Youkilis probably need to move back to 1B or to DH in order to extend his career. He's a great hitter when healthy, and I'd bet he probably has another couple 380 OBP seasons in him if he could move to a less demanding position. Unfortunately with Gonzalez here to stay and Ortiz being a local legend and still a good hitter, there isn't really room for Youkilis in those spots.

Middlebrooks is hitting like crazy now, but we've seen him go hot and cold before. The worst situation would be to trade Youkilis to promote Middlebrooks only to find Middlebrooks go through a cold streak during a pennant race with Little Nicky Punto as your best backup option and Kevin Youkilis hitting like an All-Star somewhere else. I think you see how he adjusts when pitchers start giving him less to hit, and if he handles it well, maybe you start making some calls about landing spots for Youkilis in 2013. Assuming he's not filling in for an injured Youkilis in 2021 already, if Middlebrooks finishes with a strong year, you make him the starter for 2013, and find him a decent backup - like an Ian Stewart/Bill Hall/Wilson Betemit/Chris Davis type, but probably none of those guys.

Youkilis getting traded could make a ton of sense (even for a contending Red Sox team) in these scenarios:

• The team is contending, both Youk and Middlebrooks are playing well, and trading Youk would help fill a need elsewhere on the club.
• The team is out of contention (unlikely by the deadline).
• The team is contending and Youk is playing well enough to have trade value but Middlebrooks looks like the better player. (This is also unlikely but possible and after 3 and a half months we'll be much more able to decide if Middlebrooks has become an elite prospect, taken a small step forward, or had a fluke hot start.)

The great news is, none of these decisions need to be even considered for the next 2 months. But, it really isn't that hard to imagine a scenario where there is a big whole somewhere beside 3B on the roster and a Youkilis trade and Middlebrooks promotion makes the team better now and in the future. Scenario 2 is very unlikely. Scenario 3 is based off the idea that Youk might just be an averagish player post-injury rather than an All Star. If he is, it's possible Middlebrooks is the better player. An average 3B could bring back some decent prospect talent at the deadline from a desperate contender.

[Sprowl]

I split off the discussion of Youk's trade value and potential destinations to the mainboard, so this thread can continue to focus on Middlebrook's development. What does he have to work on, hot streak or not? Plate discipline seems to have improved: if that were sustainable, then his power hot streak would be even more impressive.

[JakeRae]

The plate discipline improvement is very good to see. I've seen some in-person reports on his patience from SoxProspects that indicate he is doing a better job of laying off of pitches out of the zone. (I don't have a link as these reports have come out of game threads.)

Not only are his walks up so far this season but his K's are down. That combination plus the power surge could be vaulting him into elite prospect status in the very near future.

[Brianish]

Plus, let's be honest. He has an awesome name for a baseball player.

[alwyn96]

The decline in K% and increase in BB% and LD% is just great to see. No remarkable platoon splits. I'm not sure what his GO/AO might be (is that available for minor leaguers anywhere?), but man, he looks good so far. I might be a little concerned if he's too flyball heavy, but for now we can just enjoy the ride. Hopefully he can keep it up and stay healthy.

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

The decline in K% and increase in BB% and LD% is just great to see. No remarkable platoon splits. I'm not sure what his GO/AO might be (is that available for minor leaguers anywhere?), but man, he looks good so far. I might be a little concerned if he's too flyball heavy, but for now we can just enjoy the ride. Hopefully he can keep it up and stay healthy.

I find it hard to put too much faith in minor league batted ball stats but Middlebrooks' FB% (just subtracting the GB% and LD% I'm getting here from 100) is apparently 40%. Setting aside his 60 PAs in Pawtucket last year (looks like he was having some major adjustment issues--bad BB/K, 66% grounders), his batted ball profile looks almost exactly the same as it did last year.

[Tyrone Biggums]

I had the opportunity to see WMB play down here in Jupiter FL. Nice fluid swing but that being said I've also had the opportunity to see Youk play literally over 100 times live at the Fens. I think a reason why he hasn't been dealt is because no one knows what is happening with Ortiz next year. Either way WMB should be the opening day 3B next year no doubt about it.

[terrynever]

Lot of talk about Will's hitting potential here. Thing that struck me most at McCoy is how the kid fields his position. He looks like a young Scott Rolen at third base, tall and athletic with a great arm. Makes all the plays. Potential Gold Glover, according to scouts at McCoy. Imagine Boston's infield defense if Iglesias ever learns to hit enough: WMB, Jose, Pedroia and Gonzo. Not too shabby.

[Brianish]

Lot of talk about Will's hitting potential here. Thing that struck me most at McCoy is how the kid fields his position. He looks like a young Scott Rolen at third base, tall and athletic with a great arm. Makes all the plays. Potential Gold Glover, according to scouts at McCoy. Imagine Boston's infield defense if Iglesias ever learns to hit enough: WMB, Jose, Pedroia and Gonzo. Not too shabby.

This is what baffles me when people suggest putting him in the outfield, just to get his bat in the lineup. For all the back and forth about his bat, almost every report concedes superb defensive skills at his position. It's the combination of defense and offense at third that makes him potentially so valuable.

Edited by Brianish, 29 April 2012 - 12:41 PM.

[radsoxfan]

This is what baffles me when people suggest putting him in the outfield, just to get his bat in the lineup. For all the back and forth about his bat, almost every report concedes superb defensive skills at his position. It's the combination of defense and offense at third that makes him potentially so valuable.

I don't love the idea of putting him in the OF either. But whats so "baffling" about it? Do you expect it to compromise his ability to play 3B in the future or something?

I don't think Youk is going to the OF at this point in his career, so if Ellsbury/Crawford don't come back for a while, and Middlebrooks continues to rake for anther month (doubtful he keeps this up of course), whats the big deal?

Of course Middlebrooks has more value at 3B in the long term, and thats what he will play in the future. But getting some reps in the OF to potentially help the 2012 club doesn't strike me as problematic in any way.

I wouldn't bring him up to spot start in the OF once a week. It would only be if Ross/Sweeney dramatically cool off or are injured.

Edited by radsoxfan, 29 April 2012 - 04:12 PM.

[mabrowndog]

Will struck out just 10 times in his first 79 PA of the season.

Over his last 4 games through today, he's whiffed 8 times in 17 PA.

[SoxScout]

Will struck out just 10 times in his first 79 PA of the season.

Over his last 4 games through today, he's whiffed 8 times in 17 PA.

He couldn't keep up the non-K pace he had going, but this K-fest coincides with him being sick.

[Brianish]

I don't love the idea of putting him in the OF either. But whats so "baffling" about it? Do you expect it to compromise his ability to play 3B in the future or something?

I don't think Youk is going to the OF at this point in his career, so if Ellsbury/Crawford don't come back for a while, and Middlebrooks continues to rake for anther month (doubtful he keeps this up of course), whats the big deal?

Of course Middlebrooks has more value at 3B in the long term, and thats what he will play in the future. But getting some reps in the OF to potentially help the 2012 club doesn't strike me as problematic in any way.

I wouldn't bring him up to spot start in the OF once a week. It would only be if Ross/Sweeney dramatically cool off or are injured.

Because I've seen people suggesting it as a way to shoehorn both him and Youk into the lineup. Any kid coming up is a question mark with the bat, so why put him in a new position and make him a total question mark? As it stands right now, we have two corner outfielders hitting well, and one 3B who isn't. Obviously, if Ross and Sweeny go down, you have to reconsider, but if you're going to bring Middlebrooks up, he's the consensus better defender at 3B, so why would you move him? Gun to my head, I'd sooner try Youk in left. You've got the same two bats in the lineup, and the better defender at the contested position.

This is conditional, obviously, just like your scenario. If they have time to get Middlebrooks practice in the outfield, it changes the equation. But, if this is the result of sudden injury or collapse by Ross and Sweeney, they wouldn't have time for that. And if they had more warning, I'd like to think they'd go out and find a league average outfielder somewhere instead of twiddling with their best prospect, who happens to play a position they'll need to fill in the near future.