57 replies to this topic

[Vermonter At Large]

Free Wily Mo.

Seriously,

Just do it.

[Lucen]

Free Wily Mo.

Seriously,

Just do it.

Do you mean trade him so he can he a DH somewhere and have chance to become the hitter we all hoped he'd be? Or do you mean sit Coco, deal with the awful defense in center and let him have a chance to become the hitter we all hoped he would be?

Either way, yeah, just do it. He's a complete wasted resource right now.

[irinmike]

I think we are all sick of watching Crisp hit dribblers to the right side of the infield. I don't give a shit how good his defense is in center, and even with a hit tonite, he is so far out if it. Give WMP a chance and if he is a bust then unload him this year. There are plenty of options for Crisp in the next two years with the Pawtucket duo.

[Vermonter At Large]

Either / or. You're right, he's being completely underutilized. Whatever the reason, 3 regular batters are just not producing anything at all. They are going to N.L. parks, adding the pitcher (at the expense of one of Lowell, Youks or Papi) and could very well have gotten swept in Arizona (and may in San Diego). One way to counter that would be to substitute at least one of Pena or Hinske for Drew or Crisp (or both). If Tito doesn't think Pena can help, then you are right - they need to trade him and get someone who can get some of this flotsam out of the lineup for a while.

[Eastchop]

Certainly is worth a shot. Crisp and Lugo (and Mirabelli and Drew, until recently) just can't co-exist in the same lineup unless one of them begins to pick up some steam.

I was encouraged by Wily Mo's 6/2-6/6 stretch -- 5/18 with an HR, a 2B and a couple walks... Time to see if he can't find a groove.

Edited by Eastchop, 14 June 2007 - 10:02 PM.

[EnderSwarm]

Count me in as a supporter for this idea. Wily Mo for innings 1-7, Coco for 8-9. At this point a dropped flyball or three isn't going to doom us like our abandoned offense has.

[DieHard3]

Count me in as a supporter for this idea. Wily Mo for innings 1-7, Coco for 8-9. At this point a dropped flyball or three isn't going to doom us like our abandoned offense has.

Count me in on this idea as well; and after we put Wily Mo in CF, let's put Papelbon in the rotation. He's doing very little sitting around in the bullpen being used once a week to close out a three run lead.

[TFisNEXT]

Well tomorrow against Zito would be as good a time as any...WMP is back to destroying lefties this year (.314/.368/.514) and Coco is even worse vs lefties than his overall line.

[GriffinDoerr]

Well tomorrow against Zito would be as good a time as any...WMP is back to destroying lefties this year (.314/.368/.514) and Coco is even worse vs lefties than his overall line.

The only fly in that ointment is that Zito's best pitch is his curve.

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

The only fly in that ointment is that Zito's best pitch is his curve.

But when Zito is off, which has been often in recent seasons (despite his record), those hanging curves are just begging to be launched into the next time zone. Give Wily Mo 3 swings at those and he's bound to hit one.

[Paul M]

The way to beat Zito is with lefty hitters. Though the Sox have hit him hard for the last few years. But, Zito's had major problems with lefties.

[Mike in CT]

I'm on board with Wily Mo playing CF more often... with Coco coming in for defensive purposes.

Wily Mo in CF more often for Coco... and when Francona wants to get Cora in a game, take Lugo out... not Pedroia.

A bottom of the order of Tek, Wily Mo, & Cora doesn't exactly bring back memories of 2003... but it could help us get out of this offensive rut.

[tailwind]

People were on board with "freeing" Wily Mo early in the season, as well.

That was until he got some playing time, butchered every other ball hit to him in the outfield, and struck out in 50% of his ABs, then everybody shut up and didn't complain when Coco went back in there.

I guarantee you the same thing will happen if he gets any extended playing time once again. I'm willing to bet my life savings.

[gibdied]

That was until he got some playing time, butchered every other ball hit to him in the outfield, and struck out in 50% of his ABs, then everybody shut up and didn't complain when Coco went back in there.

Sure, since "everybody" figured Crisp would have to start turning things around at some point. But he hasn't, and doesn't look to be. With the offensive struggles of late, Wily Mo's 200 or more OPS advantage over Crisp could be useful. Cutting down the number of black holes in the lineup from 3 to 2 is a very good thing. Sure, Wily Mo isn't good defensively, and looked especially ugly at times, but the offensive difference between he and Crisp is so large (especially considering Wily Mo has a tendency to hit better with regular playing time) that the defensive hit may be worth it.

I'll drop you a PM about wiring your life savings to my bank.

[behindthepen]

wow.
I almost joked in another thread on Wednesday night that if Tito's willing to bat Coco first, why wouldn't he be willing to let Wily Mo leadoff? At least Wily Mo walks occasionally. I'm not even sure Coco could get hit by a pitch at this point.

That being said, the overall problem offensively hasn't been hitting, it's been hitting with men on base. Last night, 10 H, 3 BB = 1 run? the 2 nights before, 8 H and 2 BB = 2 runs?

[tailwind]

Sure, since "everybody" figured Crisp would have to start turning things around at some point. But he hasn't, and doesn't look to be. With the offensive struggles of late, Wily Mo's 200 or more OPS advantage over Crisp could be useful. Cutting down the number of black holes in the lineup from 3 to 2 is a very good thing. Sure, Wily Mo isn't good defensively, and looked especially ugly at times, but the offensive difference between he and Crisp is so large (especially considering Wily Mo has a tendency to hit better with regular playing time) that the defensive hit may be worth it.

I'll drop you a PM about wiring your life savings to my bank.

And for every extra run he produces, he'll let in 5 by letting balls by him in center. There's not one player that routinely turns singles into triples more easily than Wily Mo. You don't think there's a reason Coco is still playing even though he's hitting .220?

This outcry for WMP is just more of the same typical reactionary BS that always pops up when the team goes through a bad streak (over the course of the season, every team is due for at least three.)

First it was bench Pedroia.
Then it was play WMP and Cora.
Then it was "Is Manny done?"
Then Manny hits 2 dingers in one game, and it's "Is Manny back?"
Then it was "Matsuzaka isn't that good!"
Then it was "WTF did we sign Lugo for?"
Then it was "WTF did we sign Drew for?"

I can only imagine the crap that will surface come the trade deadline.

[jacklamabe65]

No panic buttons, but the team needs an infusion.

Give Lugo a few days off - maybe even a week - and start Cora at short.

Wily Mo to center for innings 1-7; Coco in for innings 8-9.

[The Gray Eagle]

If we go with a regular OF of Ramirez, Pena and Drew, then suddenly the pitching will get a lot worse.

[CR67dream]

And for every extra run he produces, he'll let in 5 by letting balls by him in center.

So you whine about "reactionary BS", yet you throw nonsensical hyperbole like this around without a thought? Nice.

Wily Mo is what he is, but there is absolutely no reason to keep the guy burried on the bench given the performance of Crisp and Drew right now. This team needs to add some punch to its offense, and as much of a butcher as Wily can be, with more regular playing time he can certainly be a net positive. The guy should be getting more starts, or be moved.

[irinmike]

Crisp has done next to nothing now for two seasons. How long do you wait for his bat to heat up and hang your hat on his once a week circus catches in center field? Not going to bring up Jacoby and WMP is sitting on the bench. Play him or get rid of him but do SOMETHING instead of parading Crisp out there to dribble grounders to second base.

[MiracleOfO2704]

How much longer must we endure a sub-.300 OBP from a man brought in to an offense that prides itself on getting on base no matter what? Worse, there are two of these supposed lead-off type hitters. Crisp looks to be regressing ever-so-slightly, and Lugo just refuses to take pitches. Really, the team's gagged away half their famous 14 1/2 game lead in about half a month and coincidentally, they can't score runs anymore since Youkilis, Manny, Ortiz, and Pedroia stopped carrying the team with ridiculous stretches at the plate.

Keep Wily Mo and Cora at the bottom of the order, maybe flip Lowell and Drew, and leave Pedroia and Youkilis as your 1-2. It may not work, but it has more potential than Crisp and Lugo's combined 0-7 with 5 easy ground balls to short and a pop-up to the third baseman in foul territory.

[exGloucester]

--------------------------
Wily Mo is what he is, but there is absolutely no reason to keep the guy burried on the bench given the performance of Crisp and Drew right now.
---------------------------

There is one big reason - atrocious defense. WMP has no business being in the field. He can't adequately play a position at a major league level. There is one less dire reason - he's nothing more than a very shaky DH insurance policy. He can, sometimes, hit a mistake pitch a long way. I havent seen his every AB this season, but the guy consistently looks overmatched at the plate when facing a pitcher who doesnt rot. Factoring in his failures in the field, I think he will be no improvement over Crisp, and may be worse on balance. Keep him on the bench.

[The Gray Eagle]

Pena looks heavier than he did last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was heavier last year than he was in '05. Looking at his age and body frame, it's not real likely that he's going to be weighing any less in the future, likely more. That isn't a positive thing for his OF career.

He should have been playing first base last year, especially on his rehab assignment and then when the team fell out of the race. (oh right, we needed to have the injured Loretta in there instead of the Penas.) They played him at 1B in Pawtucket for what, 3, 4 games? Hardly long enough for him to improve at all.

He'd never be a good defensive first baseman, but with practice and experience he might have become playable there, which is more than he's going to be in the OF going forward. And a bad fielding first baseman generally does less damage than a bad fielding CF (or RF in Fenway.) His size might actually be a bit of a benefit at first, it's not going to be one in the OF.

[amarshal2]

I've always said Wily would make an excellent NL DH.

[CR67dream]

Nobody is denyng Wily Mo's defensive inadequecies, and personally I'm not calling for him to get the keys to center field on a permanent basis. Given the performance of two of our starting outfielders, however, there is certainly plenty of justification for getting him in the lineup a lot more than he has been, as bad as his defense may be. If the Sox have no intention of doing that, then they really should do their best to move him for something of value by the deadline. Keeping him in the role he's in now makes no sense for the team or for the player.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I'm kind of leaning towards the idea that they should just move him. He is a nice insurance policy if Manny or Papi, god forbid, gets hurt but he's not going to be very useful in his current role. I have no idea what kind of value he has, I'm guessing it's much less than people think, but if you move him you can bring up one of the AAA OF's (Murphy, Moss, Ellsbury) and have a lot more flexibility.

[GriffinDoerr]

Crisp has done next to nothing now for two seasons. How long do you wait for his bat to heat up and hang your hat on his once a week circus catches in center field? Not going to bring up Jacoby and WMP is sitting on the bench. Play him or get rid of him but do SOMETHING instead of parading Crisp out there to dribble grounders to second base.

It's not the "circus catches" that make Crisp so valuable in center field. Those are great, and look good on the highlight films, but what's more important are the shots that he runs down and makes look routine. They aren't routine, but his ability and speed makes them look so, so they're easy to take for granted.

[TFisNEXT]

I have a hard time believing that WMP's defense is bad enough that his 200 points of extra OPS over Coco doesnt more than make up for it. Is there any proof his defense is really this bad? Or is it typical anecdotal evidence because he "looked really ugly" on a couple of balls. Melky Cabrera has turned two outs into two inside the park HRs since 2005, and I think most would say he is passable in CF. If I remember correctly, most defensive metrics have WMP as a slightly below average to average CFer.

Obviously he isn't Torii Hunter out there, but he doesn't have to be to have a net positive over Coco Crisp.

[PedroKsBambino]

Very rough numbers, using Gassko's recent "Range" numbers from HBT and BP's batting runs above average. That keeps us in the 'relative to average' area for both sets of data, I believe.

Gassko's recent Range article at HBT didn't specify whether the numbers were per-150 or total, but appear to be total thus far. So, I'll prorate them to full-season for WMP...but include the numbers in case I'm wrong there.

He had WMP at -7 runs defensively thus far, but that reflects only 200 or so defensive innings (I combined LF, CF, and RF to get this---imperfect but in terms of sample size a worthwhile tradeoff, imo). That's about 18 runs below average full-time equivalent. Thus far, Pena's bat has been worth -2 BRAA, which would equate to -5 BRAA in full-time play.

So, WMP has been worth something like -23 runs thus far (though 'only' -12 if the Range data is per-150).

Crisp, bad as he has been, has been worth -14 BRAA thus far with the bat, and defensively has been worth 0 on range (which one questions, but that's a different thread).

I'm not sure of any source that gives a baserunning rating in-season, but it seems safe to suggest that Crisp picks up a small amount there (say, 2 runs). In the rare times Coco has reached he's 12 of 14 on steals and has used his speed well. WMP isn't atrocious as a baserunner but is not particularly good, either.

So, even the 'slumping' Coco has been more valuable than WMP has, it looks like. Obviously, you can project WMP to improve greatly in FT play, but thus far he just hasn't performed well enough to suggest a change is likely to improve the team, either.

I am not all that confident about Coco turning it around at this point, but I think he is a pretty good bet to continue to be worth more than WMP as a CF. IMO, Pena is worse than those Range numbers suggest defensively, and Coco is better too. Pena's bat remains interesting, but his defense is a huge issue that can't be waived away in 'frustration at Coco' nor do I expect the Sox to do so.

Edited by PedroKsBambino, 15 June 2007 - 12:23 PM.

[TFisNEXT]

I think you have to expect a low 800s OPS on average from WMP if he's put in there for any length, which will begin to accumulate his positive batting contribution. As for Coco, I keep thinking he will eventually converge toward something above 700 OPS, but it looks less and less likely with each passing week.

Also the past 3 seasons' numbers show WMP to be much worse in RF than CF, so including RF numbers might make him look worse than he is in the hypothetic CF starting scenario. At any rate, I think he should be at least getting semi-regular playing time. When Tavarez starts would be an especially good time to put him in there because of Tavarez's GB/FB ratio.

edit: clarity

Edited by TFisNEXT, 15 June 2007 - 01:20 PM.

[satyadaimoku]

I've been on board for this for a while.

Of course, line drives to left-center are going to be painful to watch.

[tailwind]

So you whine about "reactionary BS", yet you throw nonsensical hyperbole like this around without a thought? Nice.

Except it's pretty much true.

Combined with the fact that he has about as good a batting eye for professional pitches as I do, that's not a good recipe. Yes, he has the ability to hit mistake fastballs 500 feet, but that's the only ability he has. It's not enough to warrant regular playing time, and clearly, the team agrees with me.

Crisp may not be hitting, but he is (arguably) one of the best defensive CFs in the game this year and offers plus speed on the basepaths. If Wily Mo had even a small shard of plate discipline to go along with his power, I'd be all for him getting playing time, but if you combine his Ks with his awful defense, it's just simply not enough.

[Eric Van]

--------------------------
There is one less dire reason - he's nothing more than a very shaky DH insurance policy. He can, sometimes, hit a mistake pitch a long way. I havent seen his every AB this season, but the guy consistently looks overmatched at the plate when facing a pitcher who doesnt rot.

So,

way a player hits as a regular ==
way a player hits as a semi-regular ==
way a player hits as a once-a-week bench guy.

Wow, that's a revolutionary finding.

[Drocca]

So,

way a player hits as a regular ==
way a player hits as a semi-regular ==
way a player hits as a once-a-week bench guy.

Wow, that's a revolutionary finding.

Why not add a little something to the discussion and let us know how you'd optimally use him as opposed to just being an asshole?


Edit - And don't give me any, "I can't talk about it". I'm asking your opinion as a fan not as some supposed expert.

Edited by Drocca, 15 June 2007 - 05:54 PM.

[CR67dream]

Except it's pretty much true.

No, it's nothing personal, but what you said is a hybrid of hyperbole and exageration. It was also offered with no supporting evidence.

Combined with the fact that he has about as good a batting eye for professional pitches as I do

More hyperbole. His lack of plate discipline is well documented, but he has always seemed to get better with consistent at bats. He really needs to get at least semi-regular playing time to get in any kind of a groove. Again, I'm not advocating displacing Crisp permanently at this point, but it's just not fair to judge Pena based on his
usage so far this year.

Yes, he has the ability to hit mistake fastballs 500 feet, but that's the only ability he has. It's not enough to warrant regular playing time, and clearly, the team agrees with me.

Wow, his only ability? I think he's at least made great strides in his overall hitting; he goes with outside pitches and picks up base hits, has atually taken a few walks this year. As far as the team agreeing with you, well, all we really know is that Tito is not ready to sit Coco right now. We have no idea of what has been discussed internally, and what may happen should this offensive rut continue.

Crisp may not be hitting, but he is (arguably) one of the best defensive CFs in the game this year and offers plus speed on the basepaths.

I'm not a Crisp hater, but I am extremely concerned that he has not shown any signs of putting his offensive game together. And the speed is great and, all, but he needs to get on base at a whole lot better clip than he has been for that to be a tangible asset. Also, as fast as he is, I'm not convinced he's all that adept at baserunning. Remember how he injured himself at the beginning of last year.

The bottom line for me is that if the Sox have no intention of allowing Pena an opportunity to develop, they should deal him. Personally, I'd like to see him get an opportunity here, but if it's not going to happen, it makes no sense to keep him in his current role. The Sox would be better with a more versatile bench player, and Pena would be better off getting to play somewhere else. The real shame is that he never got the ml development he so obviously could have used early in his professional playing career.

[tailwind]

No, it's nothing personal, but what you said is a hybrid of hyperbole and exageration. It was also offered with no supporting evidence.

It was also pretty clear I wasn't being completely serious. Perhaps I'll mark everything with tags next time.

More hyperbole. His lack of plate discipline is well documented, but he has always seemed to get better with consistent at bats. He really needs to get at least semi-regular playing time to get in any kind of a groove. Again, I'm not advocating displacing Crisp permanently at this point, but it's just not fair to judge Pena based on his
usage so far this year.

No, he doesn't get better with consistent ABs, he alternates between long stretches of being the player that everybody hates and very short stretches of being the player that everybody loves. The latter is the "potential" that is always being discussed, but he has never become that player for more than a small sample size of ABs at a time.

Wow, his only ability? I think he's at least made great strides in his overall hitting; he goes with outside pitches and picks up base hits, has atually taken a few walks this year. As far as the team agreeing with you, well, all we really know is that Tito is not ready to sit Coco right now. We have no idea of what has been discussed internally, and what may happen should this offensive rut continue.

I think the fact that he's only playing when other players are injured speaks for itself. As well, what great strides in his hitting? From what I'm watching, he's exactly the same as he's always been. He hacks at curves and change-ups, rarely making contact. He swings at outside breaking balls majority of the time. Again, every so often he'll put together a good AB where he doesn't swing at crap (such as his first against Zito today,) but this is the minority, not the majority.

I'm not a Crisp hater, but I am extremely concerned that he has not shown any signs of putting his offensive game together. And the speed is great and, all, but he needs to get on base at a whole lot better clip than he has been for that to be a tangible asset. Also, as fast as he is, I'm not convinced he's all that adept at baserunning. Remember how he injured himself at the beginning of last year.

12 for 14 seems to show he's fairly adept at running. Last year's injury was a freak occurance. Also, what kind of OBP do you really expect from Pena? I'd guess the highest we could realistically expect is a .330, give or take. That's not worldbreaking, and perhaps I'm an optimist, but I still think Coco can best that from here on out.

The bottom line for me is that if the Sox have no intention of allowing Pena an opportunity to develop, they should deal him. Personally, I'd like to see him get an opportunity here, but if it's not going to happen, it makes no sense to keep him in his current role. The Sox would be better with a more versatile bench player, and Pena would be better off getting to play somewhere else. The real shame is that he never got the ml development he so obviously could have used early in his professional playing career.

He's a DH. We already have a DH. The solution to getting a second DH playing time is not tossing him into CF and praying for the best. Also, the Sox owe Pena nothing as far as opportunities go, that's a ridiculous view. He doesn't deserve anything any more than Hinske or Cora does, and his salary is still being paid.

Cement me in the camp that wants WMP dealt and one of the AAA kids brought up to platoon or be the 4th OF.

[CR67dream]

I never said that the Sox owed anything to Pena. I simply said that if Pena is not getting an opportunity here, both the team and the player would benefit by moving on. I would never suggest moving any player against the interest of the team. I also never suggested throwing him into center field and praying for the best.

It's obvious we won't get to a consensus here, but I just have a hard time understanding the complete disdain for the guy. He hasn't had a fair chance to earn it.

[exGloucester]

------------
Wow, that's a revolutionary finding.
------------

Gee thanks. Where you would put WMP in the lineup now?

[Eric Van]

Why not add a little something to the discussion and let us know how you'd optimally use him as opposed to just being an asshole?
Edit -

I didn't think I was being an asshole, and I wasn't responding to the question of how to use Wily Mo or whether he should start playing more in CF.

I was contributing to the discussion by pointing out the utter speciousness of the position that Pena isn't really a good offensive player because he's looked bad so far this year playing once a week. It was just a year ago that he hit .329 / .379 / .537 as a semi-regular RF and CF (starting 23 of 30 games, but only 8 times in the same position and batting order slot as the game before, up to his apparent hand injury on May 16.)

And don't give me any, "I can't talk about it". I'm asking your opinion as a fan not as some supposed expert.

Hey, we're all fans here. But, indeed, someone is paying for exclusive rights to my opinion, and I have to respect that. I feel free to point out obvious or semi-obvious facts, however.

[gibdied]

Yes, he has the ability to hit mistake fastballs 500 feet, but that's the only ability he has.

If Wily Mo had even a small shard of plate discipline to go along with his power, I'd be all for him getting playing time, but if you combine his Ks with his awful defense, it's just simply not enough.

I'm don't think you're right about this. The numbers don't support it. If you look at 2005 and 2006 where Wily Mo got some solid playing time, he hit for about (these are just rough numbers) .275/.325/.490. So, yeah, we see the power you mention, but a .275 BA is pretty solid too. Also, his OBP is about 50 points higher than his BA which is again pretty solid. Clearly he can do more than just hit a ball 500 feet every so often and he certainly has more than a small shard of plate discipline. That is further emphasized this year, where despite very little playing time, his OBP is 80 points higher than his BA, which is legitimately very good. Note also that he did much better in 2006 than 2005, so he seemed to be showing real improvement. It stands to reason that with consistent playing time he could do at least as well.

No, he doesn't get better with consistent ABs, he alternates between long stretches of being the player that everybody hates and very short stretches of being the player that everybody loves.

I disagree with this as well. If you take a look at Pena's game logs from 2005 and 2006, he seems remarkably consistent; he never seems to go on "long stretches of being the player everybody hates and very short stretches of being the player everybody loves" as you assert. The longest 0-for stretch he had from 2005-2006 was just 3 games, which happened only 3 times. Furthermore, that stat is actually a bit unfair to him since in EVERY 3 game 0-for stretch he had, he was used as a pinch-hitter in at least 1 of the games and therefore only had 1 AB. The actual data indicates Wily Mo is a consistently good, and sometimes great, hitter.

[tailwind]

gib: Coco's current OBP is 70-80 points higher than his BA. That doesn't mean much.

Wily Mo is streaky, as well. There's no denying he has hot weeks and cold weeks. Of course playing often is going to help this a bit, but it's also going to expose him as an extreme defensive liability. You can't really win.

[gibdied]

gib: Coco's current OBP is 70-80 points higher than his BA. That doesn't mean much.

It means that your claim that he doesn't even have "a small shard of plate discipline" is simply wrong. Jose Reyes circa 2004 would be a good example of someone who lacked any plate discipline.

And of course Wily Mo has streakiness. All players do, even players who are considered farily consistent. But you said, and I bolded some key words, "he alternates between long stretches of being the player that everybody hates and very short stretches of being the player that everybody loves." That's a lot more extreme than "there's no denying he has hot weeks and cold weeks" like you just now said. Agreed, there's no denying that. But earlier you made extreme statements which don't seem to be supported by the data, and that's why I posted.
I will say that a quick perusal of game logs such as I did is not the ultimate analysis of how streaky he is. But getting hits in most games and having few, short 0-for stretches seems to put him solidly in the ordinary range.

[tailwind]

It means that your claim that he doesn't even have "a small shard of plate discipline" is simply wrong. Jose Reyes circa 2004 would be a good example of someone who lacked any plate discipline.

And of course Wily Mo has streakiness. All players do, even players who are considered farily consistent. But you said, and I bolded some key words, "he alternates between long stretches of being the player that everybody hates and very short stretches of being the player that everybody loves." That's a lot more extreme than "there's no denying he has hot weeks and cold weeks" like you just now said. Agreed, there's no denying that. But earlier you made extreme statements which don't seem to be supported by the data, and that's why I posted.
I will say that a quick perusal of game logs such as I did is not the ultimate analysis of how streaky he is. But getting hits in most games and having few, short 0-for stretches seems to put him solidly in the ordinary range.

The reason I pointed out Coco's OBP is because when your average is in the low .200 range, it's not difficult to have an OBP radically higher than the BA. If Wily Mo was hitting .290, he wouldn't be getting on at a .380 clip.

Now, past that, I'm still not buying into your post. What exactly is your point, are you trying to make out Wily Mo as a fairly patient hitter? A bare eye not trained to baseball in the least can see this just isn't true by watching his at-bats, he flails at offspeed pitches all over the plate. He can't recognize the spin on sliders or curveballs, nor can he adjust to the change in speeds between fastballs and change-ups. Pedroia is a disciplined hitter. Manny is a disciplined hitter. Hell, even Cora is to an extent. Wily Mo is about as far from that as you can get.

As far as his stretches go, I've seen absolutely no evidence that he can sustain his "hot streaks" for long enough to warrant extended playing time. Most I've seen last 15-20 ABs at the most, but he doesn't break into another one for a longer period of time. This might have something to do with sporadic playing time, but I'm not that easily convinced. One redeeming quality is that he seems to consistently sport a high BABIP, which is probably due to how hard he hits ground balls.

Still, add the neagtives up to his brutal defense, and, well...that's exactly why I don't want him playing.

[gibdied]

The reason I pointed out Coco's OBP is because when your average is in the low .200 range, it's not difficult to have an OBP radically higher than the BA. If Wily Mo was hitting .290, he wouldn't be getting on at a .380 clip.

Now, past that, I'm still not buying into your post. What exactly is your point...

That's a fair point about it being a little easier to have a large spread between BA and OBP when one's BA is low. But that doesn't change that Wily Mo's spread is solid. Building on what you said about if he hit .290, if we gave him 4 more hits to bump his average to .286, his OBP would be .357. The spread shrank, but that's still good, which isn't surprising since his walk rate this year is just a little less than Youk's walk rate, and Youkilis is pretty clearly a disciplined hitter. So, sure, we can all see that Wily Mo has a big weakness with offspeed stuff and especially breaking stuff away. It's a huge, glaring flaw. But if he had junk discipline, he wouldn't be walking at a solid clip. Basically, a hole in one's swing does not necessarily mean they lack all discipline. Again, see 2004 Jose Reyes. That's a good example of being about as far from disciplined as you can get.

Anyway, my point is that you originally made some extreme claims that do not seem to be supported by the numbers. I actually said that, almost verbatim, in a previous post. That's all.

Edited by gibdied, 16 June 2007 - 06:54 AM.

[exGloucester]

--------------------
I feel free to point out obvious or semi-obvious facts, however.
--------------------

That is all good, and I accept your opinion that WMP would have better offensive stats if he played more.

But what underlies this thread is the notion that the inadequacy of his defense is a major consideration in him not playing more, and thus not being able to improve his offensive stats with more playing time. Unless he's the DH, and we already have a better DH in the lineup. So your comment was on the money, but unfortunately, not so much for this thread. That's my own semi-obvious fact I'm pointing out.

[Lollardfish]

I really don't understand why this urge to move WMP seems so strong. We are one David Ortiz-pulled-muscle away from being deeply grateful for having WMP on the bench. He is terrific insurance against Manny, Drew, or Ortiz being hurt. I can't think (off the top of my head without really trying) of another team with such a fearsome slugger riding the bench.

Yes, it's not good for his career development - who cares?

No, he's not going to become our everyday CF.

But think about the other day when Ortiz was ejected. Wily Mo's availability to come in for him was terrific.

I think this is a championship-caliber team, and I want Wily Mo on the bench for the whole season. Don't free him!

[ragnarok725]

I really don't understand why this urge to move WMP seems so strong. We are one David Ortiz-pulled-muscle away from being deeply grateful for having WMP on the bench. He is terrific insurance against Manny, Drew, or Ortiz being hurt. I can't think (off the top of my head without really trying) of another team with such a fearsome slugger riding the bench.

Yes, it's not good for his career development - who cares?

It's not about his career development. It's about a wasted resource.

I guess this depends on your own evaluatory approach, but I tend to look at the team as a collection of assets - some of them being well utilized and some being under utilized. Pena falls into the latter category. If they can get equal value for him in a trade that will allow that value to add itself to the team's potential to win games on a more regular basis, then I think they should be seriously considering it.

If you have a great slugging 4th OF who could start for 90% of the teams out there but struggles and has his development impeded in limited playing time, what's the best course of action? You shop him and see if you can find equal value. You probably don't, but you certainly look. They'd be stupid not to.

I think that line is also easier to take because the Sox have 3 potential 4th OFs sitting down in Pawtucket right now. I think any of them could come up and perform the job as 4th OF right now, although it might not be the best thing for them long term. If Manny went down, then sure I'd love to have Pena out there on a regular basis. But weigh that probability against the possible value you could get in return for him... and I'm not so sure. Then weigh that probability and the potential return against the marginal improvement you get from Wily Mo versus somebody like Moss.

I think the Sox should be keeping the lines open.

[Lollardfish]

I guess this depends on your own evaluatory approach, but I tend to look at the team as a collection of assets - some of them being well utilized and some being under utilized. Pena falls into the latter category. If they can get equal value for him in a trade that will allow that value to add itself to the team's potential to win games on a more regular basis, then I think they should be seriously considering it.

...

I think the Sox should be keeping the lines open.

This is all reasonable, but what evidence do you have that they aren't? I assume that the F.O. is always keeping the lines open on everyone. I just think that Wily Mo has far more value for the Red Sox sitting on their bench than they could get in trade. If we look around at contending teams in need of a bat as DH or OF (unlike the Yankees, who we wouldn't trade with, and who need a bat at 1b), we get:

Minnesota (if they are contending) - They are the most intriguing matchup because of the limp-wristed corpses they trot out as DH on a regular basis. But WMP is completely antithetical to their style of play. They have the pitching prospects to make it interesting for the Sox, but have shown intense reluctance to move them. Any prospects not named Garza will not be as helpful to this year's Red Sox (in win-it-now mode) than having WMP on the bench.

Oakland - They could use a DH like Pena, but they already have the mighty Cust. I would have assumed they made a call to Boston before getting Cust from the Padres and didn't like the asking price. Their DH situation is complex because it include Piazza.

Seattle - Seems to me they could use someone like Pena, but I'm not as familiar with them as I'd like to be. Anyone?

National League teams are harder because of the lack of DH. I know the Padres are in the market for an outfield bat, but are far more likely to go for Dye than someone like Pena. Just imagining Pena playing defense in Petco probably makes Towers break out in boils. If we could get, say, Linebrink for Pena, you'd do it in a heartbeat.

Anyway ... I think the Sox need to focus on this year's club. Pena's a key asset, and I just don't see anything more of an asset to this year's club coming back to them.

Did I miss something?

[Maalox]

I accept your opinion that WMP would have better offensive stats if he played more.

I don't.

I think I have mentioned this before. Wily Mo Pena MP has now had 1200 major league ABs. He hasn't had them crammed into two-and-a-half seasons, but he's still had them.

I'm not sure whether I should ground faith in Pena's 2006 numbers or curse them for dragging out a charade. If 2006 can be said to signify a substantive development -although judging from 2007 I doubt they can- then that development came while getting fewer ABs than he had the previous two seasons, not more.

Do the last 200 ABs of a 500-AB season possess some magical transformative properties of which I'm not aware? At what point do the scales finally fall from people's eyes? At what point is it reasonable to conclude that after 1200 ABs, however accumulated, Wily Mo Pena is simply .260 AVG, .825 OPS guy with very little plate discipline? There's nothing wrong with him being that - such players have a place in MLB. But I have pretty much come to the conclusion that it's foolish to expect him to become anything more than that, and the argument that Pena would hit better if he played more sounds increasingly like an excuse.

I think that's important, because it goes to the issue of whether he really is an adequate replacement if Ortiz or Manny get hurt. If you have to replace those players for two weeks, what you're hoping is that the replacement can get hot for two weeks so there isn't much of a dropoff offensively. Is there any reason to believe we could expect such a hot streak from Pena?

This is a serious question: at what point do we say "he's not going to develop further"? What's the benchmark? His age? His contract? What?

[Judge Mental13]

Trading Wily Mo is going to be a painful exercise in humility seeing as how we gave up a #3-4 starter for him and will almost certainly not be getting that back in return. He has 20 hits in 90 ABs this year, 4 doubles, 4 bombs, and 12 singles, for a .222 average and a .400 SLG. He drove in 5 runs in April, 1 in May and 5 so far in June, so while that trend is looking up the guy is statistically in his prime (26-29) and not getting regular playing time. However teams that come to the table to trade with us will be in the driver's seat with these negotiations.

It's not secret that Wily Mo is not much of an asset to this team and he's no longer young enough to consider the potential of how good he's going to get. Of course there's a chance he goes somewhere else and tears the cover off the ball but he just doesn't fit here. Of course if Manny goes down for 2 months we'd all be singing a bit of a different tune about what kind of fit he is. The fact is that he doesn't fit in as a 4th OF because he's a sucky OF. He's not always the best idea for a late inning PH because he strikes out so much and has not produced many runs. The only way to know if Wily Mo will ever live up to his potential in Boston is if someone gets hurt and he fills in for a long stretch and for all we know he could suck then, too. Other GMs know this and are not going to offer very much.

I'd be extremely pleased if the Sox FO got anything of use back for Wily Mo, but I definitley don't expect it, and Bronson Arroyo (or any other half decent pitcher) is not walking through that door, starter or otherwise, IMHO.