So...you folks who actively follow this stuff, what's the bottomline here on this year's draft for the Sox? I see the descriptions of individual players, but what's your opinion on who we picked up, who we might have picked up instead, and in general how you think we did? I don't really get all the prospect talk. Are there buzzwords where when you hear them, you know the prospect isn't really? Like "interesting" or "nice personality" or something.
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How'd they do?
Started by
Worst Trade Evah
, Jun 11 2007 02:01 PM
8 replies to this topic
#2
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Posted 12 June 2007 - 01:32 AM
It could be quite a haul if they can sign the right guys. A great mix of serious raw power, terrific athletes (Middlebrooks, Dent, Keowen, etc.), and lots of pitching... especially HS pitching.
Forget Grandal and Tepesch... I don't think they will warrant what they're asking.
My greedy little heart wants to sign every remaining "tough sign" outside of the two named above.
The Red Sox tend to sign their top 10 picks, so looking beyond that.... you'd probably want them to sign (being greedy)....
College - Scott Green (could be a 1st or Supp rounder next year)
High School - Grimm, Cowan, Austin Baley (maybe), Matt Presley, Ryan Pressly?, Bourdon
Forget Grandal and Tepesch... I don't think they will warrant what they're asking.
My greedy little heart wants to sign every remaining "tough sign" outside of the two named above.
The Red Sox tend to sign their top 10 picks, so looking beyond that.... you'd probably want them to sign (being greedy)....
College - Scott Green (could be a 1st or Supp rounder next year)
High School - Grimm, Cowan, Austin Baley (maybe), Matt Presley, Ryan Pressly?, Bourdon
Edited by Mike in CT, 12 June 2007 - 01:47 AM.
#3
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Posted 13 June 2007 - 06:10 PM
So...you folks who actively follow this stuff, what's the bottomline here on this year's draft for the Sox? I see the descriptions of individual players, but what's your opinion on who we picked up, who we might have picked up instead, and in general how you think we did? I don't really get all the prospect talk. Are there buzzwords where when you hear them, you know the prospect isn't really? Like "interesting" or "nice personality" or something.
From today's ESPN chat with Jim Callis:
Theo Epstein (Boston): Professor Callis, what grade would you give my 2007 draft? why?
Jim Callis: We don't even slap a grade on our Draft Report Cards in October, because it's too early to be that definitive. We do rate the best overall drafts, though--and Boston's will be one of the best if it is as aggressive about signing quality later-round picks as it was a year ago. In terms of DRAFTING talent, the Red Sox probably drafted more quality players than anyone.
#4
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Posted 15 June 2007 - 05:40 PM
--A number of top high school players in the draft fell into the lower rounds for signability reasons, and the Red Sox scooped up more than their share of talent in the middle rounds. Despite not having a first-round pick and making their first selection at No. 55 overall, the Red Sox selected 12 players from PG Crosschecker’s pre-draft list of the top 200 prospects. Among the high school players Boston drafted that slipped below where they were projected to go were No. 37 Yasmani Grandal (27th round), No. 76 Nick Tepesch (29th round), No. 77 Will Middlebrooks (fifth round), No. 94 Matt Presley (24th round), No. 107 Justin Grimm (13th round), No. 115 Austin Bailey (16th round) and No. 153 David Mailman (seventh round). In addition, Scott Green, a college sophomore ranked at No. 161, went in the 15th round. Boston drafted a similar group of high-profile players in later rounds a year ago, and signed three to bonuses well above slot—including an $825,000 bonus given to first baseman Lars Anderson in the 18th round. “Boston’s got a chance to go off the deep end with all the talent they drafted, and all the money they might spend this year,” predicted a rival AL scouting director.
From Allan Simpson, PGCrosschecker.com.
Link
#6
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SoSH Member
Posted 17 June 2007 - 05:00 PM
It's hard to even make a (worthless) snap judgement of Sox drafts until we see which signability picks actually get signed. Even a year later, what would we think of the mostly struggling 2006 draft class without 18th rder Lars Anderson?
I've always favored a blended, variety approach to the draft so I like the mix of players the Sox drafted. It's a nice blend of HS vs C, athleticism vs power, etc.
Having said that, I've been surprised at the amount of praise given the potential draft class by BA and PGCrosschecker (or at least the person quoted in that snippet). I haven't been at all surprised at how much Sox fans like it.
Most of the signability picks seem to be of the 400-700k, 3rd round-ish variety and not the ~1M borderline 1st rd variety.
As a result, I think there's a legitimate concern that the draft - even with some extra signability players - may end up leaning too much towards quantity over quality. Of course, you want as many 500k type players as possible because more lottery tickets is always better than fewer. But historically, one player who costs 1.5M is a much better bet than 3 players who will cost 500k apiece.
I think Middlebrooks will probably hit 7 figures, but it's possible that no single player will cross that mark. It's just very, very unusual to talk about a team spending a ton of money in the draft without the benefit of one player with a huge bonus or a few players with low 7 figure bonuses.
This is an odd draft class and even if they end up spending a lot of money on a lot of 6 figure guys, it will be a very different kind of draft than the last couple.
I've always favored a blended, variety approach to the draft so I like the mix of players the Sox drafted. It's a nice blend of HS vs C, athleticism vs power, etc.
Having said that, I've been surprised at the amount of praise given the potential draft class by BA and PGCrosschecker (or at least the person quoted in that snippet). I haven't been at all surprised at how much Sox fans like it.
Most of the signability picks seem to be of the 400-700k, 3rd round-ish variety and not the ~1M borderline 1st rd variety.
As a result, I think there's a legitimate concern that the draft - even with some extra signability players - may end up leaning too much towards quantity over quality. Of course, you want as many 500k type players as possible because more lottery tickets is always better than fewer. But historically, one player who costs 1.5M is a much better bet than 3 players who will cost 500k apiece.
I think Middlebrooks will probably hit 7 figures, but it's possible that no single player will cross that mark. It's just very, very unusual to talk about a team spending a ton of money in the draft without the benefit of one player with a huge bonus or a few players with low 7 figure bonuses.
This is an odd draft class and even if they end up spending a lot of money on a lot of 6 figure guys, it will be a very different kind of draft than the last couple.
#7
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Posted 17 June 2007 - 09:10 PM
I don't know Philly... Scott Green could easily go over the 7 figure mark. Grandal is asking for 1 million minimum (though he won't get it). Tepesch would take a bundle to sign away from college.
Cowan and Grimm.... one wants $750k while the other wants "a large number", whatever that means.
There are a few "tough signs" beyond Middlebrooks who might get alot closer to 1 million than 500k, if we really want to sign them.
Cowan and Grimm.... one wants $750k while the other wants "a large number", whatever that means.
There are a few "tough signs" beyond Middlebrooks who might get alot closer to 1 million than 500k, if we really want to sign them.
#8
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SoSH Member
Posted 17 June 2007 - 09:58 PM
Yeah, I've pretty much written off Green, Grendel and Tepesch precisely because they're bonuses seem higher than what the Sox probably feel they're worth.
We'll see, of course, but it seems like this group of tough signs will be more in the Weeden (425k) and Kalish (600k) range than the Anderson (825k) range.
And the big factor is still the simple lack of multiple very high picks which the Sox couldn't do anything about on draft day. I get the feeling that the sheer quantity of these second tier players has people thinking that the Sox will simply sign a bunch and that'll be the same as the last couple of years.
Here's the BA Top 200 again:
#36 Middlebrooks (174)
#42 Grandal (834)
#46 Dent (62)
#60 Hagadone (55)
#62 Tepesch (864)
#132 Morris (84)
#170 Mailman (234)
#174 Bailey (504)
#178 Grimm (414)
#196 Keowen (294)
If they don't sign Grandal and Tepesch, then they'll have signed three players out of the top 130. That's solid, but nothing special. That they may end up signing unusual number of players at the back of the Top 200 is definitely a good thing, but at those rankings they are, to me, very much second tier talent and extra second tier talent doesn't make up for only a decent job (at best) signing top tier talent.
I do like the draft class, but to me it's more limited than what other people seem to think. Every HS kid with a strong college commitment isn't a high ceiling elite prospect.
We'll see, of course, but it seems like this group of tough signs will be more in the Weeden (425k) and Kalish (600k) range than the Anderson (825k) range.
And the big factor is still the simple lack of multiple very high picks which the Sox couldn't do anything about on draft day. I get the feeling that the sheer quantity of these second tier players has people thinking that the Sox will simply sign a bunch and that'll be the same as the last couple of years.
Here's the BA Top 200 again:
#36 Middlebrooks (174)
#42 Grandal (834)
#46 Dent (62)
#60 Hagadone (55)
#62 Tepesch (864)
#132 Morris (84)
#170 Mailman (234)
#174 Bailey (504)
#178 Grimm (414)
#196 Keowen (294)
If they don't sign Grandal and Tepesch, then they'll have signed three players out of the top 130. That's solid, but nothing special. That they may end up signing unusual number of players at the back of the Top 200 is definitely a good thing, but at those rankings they are, to me, very much second tier talent and extra second tier talent doesn't make up for only a decent job (at best) signing top tier talent.
I do like the draft class, but to me it's more limited than what other people seem to think. Every HS kid with a strong college commitment isn't a high ceiling elite prospect.
#9
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Posted 18 June 2007 - 06:59 AM
I think Philly to me it comes down to the fact that it would have been hard for them to have done any better, they got a lot more talent than they had any right to pick up. It is interesting to me though that they skipped a Harvey etc, who I'm guessing would have been more in your mould? I think what you want out of a draft is one or two top potential impact players and some other who might just come out that way when it all shakes down. Hard to argue that the Sox draft doesn't contain that potential, if it pans out well that's harder and longer to gauge. Some signings are not as high as you'd expect too, I'm thinking what Bard finally signed for as an example.
I also wanted to respond to the comment on the last draft, I loved the last draft one draft day, loved it more when they signed everyone (although still wanted them to sign Laporta) and I love it now. I totally haven't given up on the Masterson, Johnson, Cox arms for example. I agree though this one is more like less love, but that's largely because of a lack of the top tier impact draft due to our spots. Lugo damn you.
I also wanted to respond to the comment on the last draft, I loved the last draft one draft day, loved it more when they signed everyone (although still wanted them to sign Laporta) and I love it now. I totally haven't given up on the Masterson, Johnson, Cox arms for example. I agree though this one is more like less love, but that's largely because of a lack of the top tier impact draft due to our spots. Lugo damn you.
