[URI]

So, Dustin Pedroia is on first base with 0 outs recorded by your Boston Red Sox. The score stands 2-1 in favor of the Diamondbacks.

With the pitcher spot up, and Daisuke Matsuzaka at 120 pitches, the logical decision would be to pinch hit.

On the bench is David Ortiz, JD Drew, Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, and Doug Mirabelli. Considering there is the right hand throwing Jalien Peguero on the mound, the supposition would be to go with one of your left handed swingers, leaving Mirabelli alone on the bench to do things like give Wakefield backrubs and get Varitek's water.

Francona pinch hits Cora, who is sent to bunt, in front of the two weakest hitters in the lineup, Lugo and Crisp.

Setting aside the frustration of your lineup's two worst hitters hitting at the top, I think Francona made a pretty awful call in bunting with Cora there. Drew is showing signs of life, and Ortiz could put the Sox ahead pretty easily off a guy like Peguero.

I don't want this to turn into a catch-all, I'm smarter than Tito thread, but I thought the strategic decision there...playing for a tie with your overall weakest hitters coming up...was just a poor strategic decision that did quite a bit in costing the Red Sox an advantage in that inning.

[Mike in CT]

... and now he's going to send guys like Drew and Papi up there against far better relievers. (Pena & Valverde)

It's been a really bad day for Francona, from the time he filled out the lineup card to sending Cora up to bunt.

This post has been edited by Mike in CT: 10 June 2007 - 06:41 PM

[tailwind]

I HATED that play. Don't give away freaking outs with your two worst OBP guys coming up.

If anything, Cora should've been in there to pinch run and attempt to steal the base with Hinske hitting, and Ortiz saved to bat later, possibly for Crisp or in the 9th.

[mr guido]

I thought the same, but win expectancy apparently disagrees:

7th inning, visiting team down by 1, 0 outs, men on 1st: Diamondbacks win 67.8% of the time

7th inning, visiting team down by 1, 1 out, man on 2nd: Diamondbacks win 64.3% of the time

Plus if Mike Timlin were their pitcher he'd have heave-hoed it into the stands and the Sox'd be sitting pretty.

[ragnarok725]

...and now Timlin in for his first game back with 2 guys on in a 1 run game. This as bad a game as I've seen Francona manage in his time with the Sox. Just inexcusable stuff, from the line-up with Lugo and Cora on top, to his PHing decisions, to his bullpen decisions. I don't really know what to say, but you gotta lose a lot of confidence in him after the string of head-scratching decisions tonight.

[Ananti]

Win probability doesn't take into account who's hitting next.

The Cora bunt wouldn't be an awful play *if* he used a PH for Lugo/Crisp.

The crime wasn't letting Cora bunt. It was not PH for Lugo/Crisp, or alternatively it was letting Cora bunt knowing you aren't planning to hit for Lugo or Crisp.

[Mike in CT]

Edit - Oh wait, scratch that... Drew and Papi won't have to bat in the 9th because the game is essentially over.

Brilliant series for Francona. If Lugo is batting leadoff next game, I'm not watching.

[nazz45]

Ananti, on Jun 10 2007, 08:05 PM, said:

Win probability doesn't take into account who's hitting next.

The Cora bunt wouldn't be an awful play *if* he used a PH for Lugo/Crisp.

The crime wasn't letting Cora bunt. It was not PH for Lugo/Crisp, or alternatively it was letting Cora bunt knowing you aren't planning to hit for Lugo or Crisp.

Not to mention that "saving" Drew and Ortiz for, presumably, the ninth is pretty useless if you can't foresee the future. A 1-run game in the seventh may, indeed, turn into a 4-run game in the ninth, and lo and behold that's exactly what happened, thus rendering the ninth inning plate appearances unimportant compared to the ABs of Cora/Lugo/Crisp in the seventh.

[Doza]

Totally agree on the use of Cora.

Getting scared and pulling Donalley was pretty retarded to considering all Drew was going to do was bunt. Then using Timlin in a high lev situation this close to rehab is dreadful. Oh and Timlin isn't very good to begin with. He seems to think he has the 2003-2005 version.

Horrible day for Tito. And the Yanks are now in single digits.

This post has been edited by Doza: 10 June 2007 - 07:16 PM

[educatedcheese]

Ananti, on Jun 10 2007, 08:05 PM, said:

The crime wasn't letting Cora bunt. It was not PH for Lugo/Crisp, or alternatively it was letting Cora bunt knowing you aren't planning to hit for Lugo or Crisp.

I was thinking likewise. I didn't think the choice was Hinske (who was in the on-deck circle) versus Cora. I thought the choice was which one would bat before the other.

[URI]

mr guido, on Jun 10 2007, 07:59 PM, said:

I thought the same, but win expectancy apparently disagrees:

7th inning, visiting team down by 1, 0 outs, men on 1st: Diamondbacks win 67.8% of the time

7th inning, visiting team down by 1, 1 out, man on 2nd: Diamondbacks win 64.3% of the time

Plus if Mike Timlin were their pitcher he'd have heave-hoed it into the stands and the Sox'd be sitting pretty.

The problem with Win Probability in here is that it assumes averageness. You had a below average pitcher on the mound, the option for a few above average hitters on the bench, in an offense-friendly ballpark, and two below average hitters in the next two spots.

[Ananti]

And with a chance to get the tying run to the plate he lets Coco hit instead of Ortiz.

That was just brutal.

[Noah]

If your bullpen is going to give up 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th, your odds of winning the game are pretty damn slim no matter who hits in the top of the 8th.

It makes sense to "save" Ortiz for the 9th, because Valverde is probably a better matchup for him that Slaten.

Now, Coco hitting instead of Ortiz in the 9th I do not understand.

This post has been edited by Noah: 10 June 2007 - 07:26 PM

[URI]

Noah, on Jun 10 2007, 08:25 PM, said:

If your bullpen is going to give up 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th, your odds of winning the game are pretty damn slim no matter who hits in the top of the 8th.

It makes sense to "save" Ortiz for the 9th, because Valverde is probably a better matchup for him that Slaten.

Now, Coco hitting instead of Ortiz in the 9th I do not understand.

To kind of circle this back to the topic at hand, Tito didn't know any of this in the top of the 7th. What he knew was that he wanted Cora to hit for the pitcher with Ortiz and Drew on the bench, and then he wanted Cora to bunt with Lugo/Crisp on deck.

[Noah]

URISoxFan, on Jun 10 2007, 05:37 PM, said:

To kind of circle this back to the topic at hand, Tito didn't know any of this in the top of the 7th. What he knew was that he wanted Cora to hit for the pitcher with Ortiz and Drew on the bench, and then he wanted Cora to bunt with Lugo/Crisp on deck.

My first point is that the reasoning "a 2-1 game can turn into a 5-1 game really quick" is not sound. Because whether they get that run across in the 7th or not, your bullpen still has to hold them.

On another point, I'm not so sure the bunt is a bad play. It increases your chances of scoring at least one run in the inning, and with light hitters coming up, you should absolutely play for one run (unless you PH Ortiz there).

And I think it is pretty reasonable to assume that Tito knew that if he uses Ortiz in the 7th, he gets Slaten, and if he uses Ortiz in the 9th, it will be Valverde.

This post has been edited by Noah: 10 June 2007 - 07:45 PM

[Rudy Pemberton]

Let's get back to the real problem here....why are Lugo and Crisp batting 1st and 2nd in the lineup to begin with? It's one thing to complain about the bunt, but it's pretty normal thing to do in that situation, especially with the top of the lineup coming up. If you PH Oritz, he's walked and then Lugo hits into a DP and Coco pops up.

So, why the hell are these two guys with sub 600 OPS batting in those spots? Because they make lots of money and / or were highly hyped by the organization? A guy with an OBP of 200 on the road simply can't be leading off road games, can he?

[someoneanywhere]

I see the logic in all these complaints. Every last one of them.

But let me play Tito advocate here. The basic, fundamental flaw with this team right now -- the flaw that could doom it in September or October -- is a $9 million SS hitting .210 and a CF for whom you cleared major- and minor-league space to get who is only about 20 points higher. I understand perfectly that for some of you this is exactly why neither one of them should have been in the positions they were in.

But: This is a game of confidence. Anyone at any salary level would tell you that (G38's blog is just an extended rumination on it). If you can't try to get a guy going by getting behind him in a key situation -- all the while knowing that at worst you come back from a grueling trip 9.5 games up -- when can you? Lugo is not going anywhere. Crisp may be come July, but who knows? If you want them to clutch up in October -- as they will have to -- you have to show them they matter in June.

Again, from a purely theoretical view the strategic criticisms make sense. But he wasn't managing for today's game only.

[soxfaninyankeeland]

Cora bunting wasn't a bad move as long as it was followed up with a PHer for Lugo, with Cora replacing Lugo at SS in the bottom of the inning. Once he let Lugo hit, Francona essentially lost the possibility of PHing for either Lugo or Pedroia for the rest of the game.

[URI]

Noah, on Jun 10 2007, 08:41 PM, said:

And I think it is pretty reasonable to assume that Tito knew that if he uses Ortiz in the 7th, he gets Slaten, and if he uses Ortiz in the 9th, it will be Valverde.

I didn't catch anyone on NESN saying that Slaten was warming.

someoneanywhere, on Jun 10 2007, 08:48 PM, said:

Again, from a purely theoretical view the strategic criticisms make sense. But he wasn't managing for today's game only.

The case I'm making is that I don't think he was managing for today's game at all.

This post has been edited by URISoxFan: 10 June 2007 - 07:52 PM

[MidnightC]

What I said in the game thread:

Quote

An Ortiz or Drew PH would've made a lot more sense. Instead, it's Alex freakin' Cora to make an intentional out in front of two guys currently struggling to stay above the Mendoza line. Brilliant!

I'm still mystified by that decision. It makes no sense to give up an out there considering the duo set to come to the plate afterwards. If Tito was committed to giving Ortiz the whole day off (which is how it seems now), fine. If he wanted Drew available later in the game, that doesn't really bother me either. But at the very least he could've summoned Hinske, or even had Cora swing away. Bunting in that situation just wasn't a good choice.