85 replies to this topic

[URI]

So, Dustin Pedroia is on first base with 0 outs recorded by your Boston Red Sox. The score stands 2-1 in favor of the Diamondbacks.

With the pitcher spot up, and Daisuke Matsuzaka at 120 pitches, the logical decision would be to pinch hit.

On the bench is David Ortiz, JD Drew, Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, and Doug Mirabelli. Considering there is the right hand throwing Jalien Peguero on the mound, the supposition would be to go with one of your left handed swingers, leaving Mirabelli alone on the bench to do things like give Wakefield backrubs and get Varitek's water.

Francona pinch hits Cora, who is sent to bunt, in front of the two weakest hitters in the lineup, Lugo and Crisp.

Setting aside the frustration of your lineup's two worst hitters hitting at the top, I think Francona made a pretty awful call in bunting with Cora there. Drew is showing signs of life, and Ortiz could put the Sox ahead pretty easily off a guy like Peguero.

I don't want this to turn into a catch-all, I'm smarter than Tito thread, but I thought the strategic decision there...playing for a tie with your overall weakest hitters coming up...was just a poor strategic decision that did quite a bit in costing the Red Sox an advantage in that inning.

[Mike in CT]

... and now he's going to send guys like Drew and Papi up there against far better relievers. (Pena & Valverde)

It's been a really bad day for Francona, from the time he filled out the lineup card to sending Cora up to bunt.

Edited by Mike in CT, 10 June 2007 - 06:41 PM.

[tailwind]

I HATED that play. Don't give away freaking outs with your two worst OBP guys coming up.

If anything, Cora should've been in there to pinch run and attempt to steal the base with Hinske hitting, and Ortiz saved to bat later, possibly for Crisp or in the 9th.

[mr guido]

I thought the same, but win expectancy apparently disagrees:

7th inning, visiting team down by 1, 0 outs, men on 1st: Diamondbacks win 67.8% of the time

7th inning, visiting team down by 1, 1 out, man on 2nd: Diamondbacks win 64.3% of the time

Plus if Mike Timlin were their pitcher he'd have heave-hoed it into the stands and the Sox'd be sitting pretty.

[ragnarok725]

...and now Timlin in for his first game back with 2 guys on in a 1 run game. This as bad a game as I've seen Francona manage in his time with the Sox. Just inexcusable stuff, from the line-up with Lugo and Cora on top, to his PHing decisions, to his bullpen decisions. I don't really know what to say, but you gotta lose a lot of confidence in him after the string of head-scratching decisions tonight.

[Ananti]

Win probability doesn't take into account who's hitting next.

The Cora bunt wouldn't be an awful play *if* he used a PH for Lugo/Crisp.

The crime wasn't letting Cora bunt. It was not PH for Lugo/Crisp, or alternatively it was letting Cora bunt knowing you aren't planning to hit for Lugo or Crisp.

[Mike in CT]

Edit - Oh wait, scratch that... Drew and Papi won't have to bat in the 9th because the game is essentially over.

Brilliant series for Francona. If Lugo is batting leadoff next game, I'm not watching.

[nazz45]

Win probability doesn't take into account who's hitting next.

The Cora bunt wouldn't be an awful play *if* he used a PH for Lugo/Crisp.

The crime wasn't letting Cora bunt. It was not PH for Lugo/Crisp, or alternatively it was letting Cora bunt knowing you aren't planning to hit for Lugo or Crisp.

Not to mention that "saving" Drew and Ortiz for, presumably, the ninth is pretty useless if you can't foresee the future. A 1-run game in the seventh may, indeed, turn into a 4-run game in the ninth, and lo and behold that's exactly what happened, thus rendering the ninth inning plate appearances unimportant compared to the ABs of Cora/Lugo/Crisp in the seventh.

[Doza]

Totally agree on the use of Cora.

Getting scared and pulling Donalley was pretty retarded to considering all Drew was going to do was bunt. Then using Timlin in a high lev situation this close to rehab is dreadful. Oh and Timlin isn't very good to begin with. He seems to think he has the 2003-2005 version.

Horrible day for Tito. And the Yanks are now in single digits.

Edited by Doza, 10 June 2007 - 07:16 PM.

[educatedcheese]

The crime wasn't letting Cora bunt. It was not PH for Lugo/Crisp, or alternatively it was letting Cora bunt knowing you aren't planning to hit for Lugo or Crisp.

I was thinking likewise. I didn't think the choice was Hinske (who was in the on-deck circle) versus Cora. I thought the choice was which one would bat before the other.

[URI]

I thought the same, but win expectancy apparently disagrees:

7th inning, visiting team down by 1, 0 outs, men on 1st: Diamondbacks win 67.8% of the time

7th inning, visiting team down by 1, 1 out, man on 2nd: Diamondbacks win 64.3% of the time

Plus if Mike Timlin were their pitcher he'd have heave-hoed it into the stands and the Sox'd be sitting pretty.

The problem with Win Probability in here is that it assumes averageness. You had a below average pitcher on the mound, the option for a few above average hitters on the bench, in an offense-friendly ballpark, and two below average hitters in the next two spots.

[Ananti]

And with a chance to get the tying run to the plate he lets Coco hit instead of Ortiz.

That was just brutal.

[Noah]

If your bullpen is going to give up 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th, your odds of winning the game are pretty damn slim no matter who hits in the top of the 8th.

It makes sense to "save" Ortiz for the 9th, because Valverde is probably a better matchup for him that Slaten.

Now, Coco hitting instead of Ortiz in the 9th I do not understand.

Edited by Noah, 10 June 2007 - 07:26 PM.

[URI]

If your bullpen is going to give up 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th, your odds of winning the game are pretty damn slim no matter who hits in the top of the 8th.

It makes sense to "save" Ortiz for the 9th, because Valverde is probably a better matchup for him that Slaten.

Now, Coco hitting instead of Ortiz in the 9th I do not understand.

To kind of circle this back to the topic at hand, Tito didn't know any of this in the top of the 7th. What he knew was that he wanted Cora to hit for the pitcher with Ortiz and Drew on the bench, and then he wanted Cora to bunt with Lugo/Crisp on deck.

[Noah]

To kind of circle this back to the topic at hand, Tito didn't know any of this in the top of the 7th. What he knew was that he wanted Cora to hit for the pitcher with Ortiz and Drew on the bench, and then he wanted Cora to bunt with Lugo/Crisp on deck.

My first point is that the reasoning "a 2-1 game can turn into a 5-1 game really quick" is not sound. Because whether they get that run across in the 7th or not, your bullpen still has to hold them.

On another point, I'm not so sure the bunt is a bad play. It increases your chances of scoring at least one run in the inning, and with light hitters coming up, you should absolutely play for one run (unless you PH Ortiz there).

And I think it is pretty reasonable to assume that Tito knew that if he uses Ortiz in the 7th, he gets Slaten, and if he uses Ortiz in the 9th, it will be Valverde.

Edited by Noah, 10 June 2007 - 07:45 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Let's get back to the real problem here....why are Lugo and Crisp batting 1st and 2nd in the lineup to begin with? It's one thing to complain about the bunt, but it's pretty normal thing to do in that situation, especially with the top of the lineup coming up. If you PH Oritz, he's walked and then Lugo hits into a DP and Coco pops up.

So, why the hell are these two guys with sub 600 OPS batting in those spots? Because they make lots of money and / or were highly hyped by the organization? A guy with an OBP of 200 on the road simply can't be leading off road games, can he?

[someoneanywhere]

I see the logic in all these complaints. Every last one of them.

But let me play Tito advocate here. The basic, fundamental flaw with this team right now -- the flaw that could doom it in September or October -- is a $9 million SS hitting .210 and a CF for whom you cleared major- and minor-league space to get who is only about 20 points higher. I understand perfectly that for some of you this is exactly why neither one of them should have been in the positions they were in.

But: This is a game of confidence. Anyone at any salary level would tell you that (G38's blog is just an extended rumination on it). If you can't try to get a guy going by getting behind him in a key situation -- all the while knowing that at worst you come back from a grueling trip 9.5 games up -- when can you? Lugo is not going anywhere. Crisp may be come July, but who knows? If you want them to clutch up in October -- as they will have to -- you have to show them they matter in June.

Again, from a purely theoretical view the strategic criticisms make sense. But he wasn't managing for today's game only.

[soxfaninyankeeland]

Cora bunting wasn't a bad move as long as it was followed up with a PHer for Lugo, with Cora replacing Lugo at SS in the bottom of the inning. Once he let Lugo hit, Francona essentially lost the possibility of PHing for either Lugo or Pedroia for the rest of the game.

[URI]

And I think it is pretty reasonable to assume that Tito knew that if he uses Ortiz in the 7th, he gets Slaten, and if he uses Ortiz in the 9th, it will be Valverde.

I didn't catch anyone on NESN saying that Slaten was warming.

Again, from a purely theoretical view the strategic criticisms make sense. But he wasn't managing for today's game only.

The case I'm making is that I don't think he was managing for today's game at all.

Edited by URISoxFan, 10 June 2007 - 07:52 PM.

[MidnightC]

What I said in the game thread:

An Ortiz or Drew PH would've made a lot more sense. Instead, it's Alex freakin' Cora to make an intentional out in front of two guys currently struggling to stay above the Mendoza line. Brilliant!

I'm still mystified by that decision. It makes no sense to give up an out there considering the duo set to come to the plate afterwards. If Tito was committed to giving Ortiz the whole day off (which is how it seems now), fine. If he wanted Drew available later in the game, that doesn't really bother me either. But at the very least he could've summoned Hinske, or even had Cora swing away. Bunting in that situation just wasn't a good choice.

[ragnarok725]

But: This is a game of confidence. Anyone at any salary level would tell you that (G38's blog is just an extended rumination on it). If you can't try to get a guy going by getting behind him in a key situation -- all the while knowing that at worst you come back from a grueling trip 9.5 games up -- when can you? Lugo is not going anywhere. Crisp may be come July, but who knows? If you want them to clutch up in October -- as they will have to -- you have to show them they matter in June.

Of course, where does it leave their confidence level if you put them in pressure-filled situations when they're struggling and they continue to fail? Doesn't that pretty much burn them out entirely?

I would rather Francona try to hide them for now. Put them 8 and 9 and give them some extra days off. Move them back up in the line-up and give them those opportunities when they're equipped to take advantage of them.

I would argue that he's not building their confidence now. He's destroying it. By continuing to allow them to let down the team.

[BoSox Rule]

But: This is a game of confidence. Anyone at any salary level would tell you that (G38's blog is just an extended rumination on it). If you can't try to get a guy going by getting behind him in a key situation -- all the while knowing that at worst you come back from a grueling trip 9.5 games up -- when can you? Lugo is not going anywhere. Crisp may be come July, but who knows? If you want them to clutch up in October -- as they will have to -- you have to show them they matter in June.

They shouldn't be treated like kids, though. Lugo is 31, Crisp is 27. They should know that aren't doing their jobs and they should be able to take it like men. They have no business hitting 1 and 2 right now, and they can't handle the scrutiny, well then they shouldn't be in the Major Leagues.

[GriffinDoerr]

I see the logic in all these complaints. Every last one of them.

But let me play Tito advocate here. The basic, fundamental flaw with this team right now -- the flaw that could doom it in September or October -- is a $9 million SS hitting .210 and a CF for whom you cleared major- and minor-league space to get who is only about 20 points higher. I understand perfectly that for some of you this is exactly why neither one of them should have been in the positions they were in.

But: This is a game of confidence. Anyone at any salary level would tell you that (G38's blog is just an extended rumination on it). If you can't try to get a guy going by getting behind him in a key situation -- all the while knowing that at worst you come back from a grueling trip 9.5 games up -- when can you? Lugo is not going anywhere. Crisp may be come July, but who knows? If you want them to clutch up in October -- as they will have to -- you have to show them they matter in June.

Again, from a purely theoretical view the strategic criticisms make sense. But he wasn't managing for today's game only.

I was thinking that as well. Sooner or later (hopefully sooner rather than later), these guys are going to have to produce. Anyone who's played professional baseball will tell you that it's a game of confidence, and Francona seems to be one of those managers (according to the players) who'll show confidence in a player when nobody else does. Sometimes it takes a long time to work itself out, and sometimes it NEVER works out, but Francona's track record with such situations seems overall to back him up. You don't pull a starting pitcher at the first sign of trouble; you don't sit a guy down when he's struggling; you don't pinch hit for him in a tough situation. As far as the latter goes, who knows that someday down the road you're going to have to rely on this guy in a REALLY tough situation?

Getting scared and pulling Donalley was pretty retarded to considering all Drew was going to do was bunt.

I don't think it was a matter of being scared. Donnelly had already pitched an inning and had also pitched the night before. I'm sure he wasn't going to be allowed to pitch too long.

[yecul]

People mistake variations on Francona's patterns as changes in his behavior. Crisp is a top of the order hitter to Francona. Timlin is a main setup man to Francona. If and when Lugo moves out of the #1 spot it will be temporary. These are constants and should be expected going forward.

He's never been a good strategy guy either. Tito is a player's manager who is stearing the ship in a direction. Getting bogged down with efficient player use and in game decision making doesn't get in his way.

A scrappy player making a sac bunt is what you're "supposed" to do. So he did it. It's really as simple as that I think.

[GriffinDoerr]

People mistake variations on Francona's patterns as changes in his behavior. Crisp is a top of the order hitter to Francona. Timlin is a main setup man to Francona. If and when Lugo moves out of the #1 spot it will be temporary. These are constants and should be expected going forward.

He's never been a good strategy guy either. Tito is a player's manager who is stearing the ship in a direction. Getting bogged down with efficient player use and in game decision making doesn't get in his way.

A scrappy player making a sac bunt is what you're "supposed" to do. So he did it. It's really as simple as that I think.

I'll have to disagree with that premise. Sure, Francona is a good players' manager, and he does a great job at what is essentially herding cats for six months. But he was hired expressively by Epstein and Co. because he combines that quality (which his predecessor also has) with utilizing their extensive scouting reports and making plenty of in-game strategic decisions. How many does a manager make in a game? Hundreds? And hell, sometimes you can make all the right decisions and your players (or the opposition) screws it up. That's the problem with working with human beings vs. computer programs.

We, as spectators, can first-guess and second-guess until the cows come home. But we're missing one critical ingredient - we have no idea what's going on in that dugout, in that clubhouse, with those players.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

This whole confidence-building angle is horseshit.

Julio Lugo will gain confidence once he starts hitting, not when the bald man in the red coat thinks he going to start hitting. If I am hitting .210 and the manager lets me hit in a key situation instead of David Ortiz, I don't think "Gee, its nice that the manager believes in me." I think "Why do we have to have a moron manager?" Seriously. Is Coco Crisp going to think, "Aw shucks, Skip doesn't think I am as good a hitter as David Ortiz?" Well, fucking duh. You aren't, and you never will be. If Coco Crisp were hitting .300, he is still not as good a hitter as David Ortiz or JD Drew, and the manager should be smart enough to know that. Haul Coco's carcass into the office, shut to door, and say, "Coco, I love you to death, you are playing a kick-ass centerfield and you are a big part of this team's future. But if I need a big hit later and David is ready, I am going to try to win the game." What the fuck is wrong with that?

I have read dozens of autobiographies or oral histories of ballplayers. To a man, ballplayers respect managers who manage the fucking game. In fact, it is confidence-building to know that your manager is trying to win the game. I am going to work that much harder to justify the effort the manager is putting in.

If I am JD Drew right now, I am thinking, "Gee, I guess Skip doesn't think I am as good a hitter as Alex Cora or Julio Lugo or Coco Crisp. Either that, or he's dumb as a box of rocks and he's worried about not hurting people's feelings."

[DickBrodowski]

Count me as another mystified and frustrated viewer of the game today, from using Lugo and Crisp again in the 1 & 2 spots, to bunting Cora, to not using Ortiz, etc...ad naseum.

Several posters have mentioned the "building confidence" angle, and while I think that can be an explanation as to why Tito may have done some of what he did today, I simply cannot see how confidence can be built by losing and by not putting your best effort as a team forth.

[GriffinDoerr]

This whole confidence-building angle is horseshit.

Julio Lugo will gain confidence once he starts hitting, not when the bald man in the red coat thinks he going to start hitting. If I am hitting .210 and the manager lets me hit in a key situation instead of David Ortiz, I don't think "Gee, its nice that the manager believes in me." I think "Why do we have to have a moron manager?" Seriously. Is Coco Crisp going to think, "Aw shucks, Skip doesn't think I am as good a hitter as David Ortiz?" Well, fucking duh. You aren't, and you never will be. If Coco Crisp were hitting .300, he is still not as good a hitter as David Ortiz or JD Drew, and the manager should be smart enough to know that. Haul Coco's carcass into the office, shut to door, and say, "Coco, I love you to death, you are playing a kick-ass centerfield and you are a big part of this team's future. But if I need a big hit later and David is ready, I am going to try to win the game." What the fuck is wrong with that?

I have read dozens of autobiographies or oral histories of ballplayers. To a man, ballplayers respect managers who manage the fucking game. In fact, it is confidence-building to know that your manager is trying to win the game. I am going to work that much harder to justify the effort the manager is putting in.

If I am JD Drew right now, I am thinking, "Gee, I guess Skip doesn't think I am as good a hitter as Alex Cora or Julio Lugo or Coco Crisp. Either that, or he's dumb as a box of rocks and he's worried about not hurting people's feelings."

No offense, but I really doubt anyone is thinking he has a moron manager while he's up at bat. Nor is he thinking it's nice that he's hitting. He's just trying to get on base and do his damn job.

And just as an aside, I really wonder what the angst level would be if the Red Sox were TRAILING by 9.5 games. I'm almost laughing at the thought if any of the players turn on talk radio Monday.

[reggiecleveland]

But: This is a game of confidence. Anyone at any salary level would tell you that (G38's blog is just an extended rumination on it). If you can't try to get a guy going by getting behind him in a key situation -- all the while knowing that at worst you come back from a grueling trip 9.5 games up -- when can you? Lugo is not going anywhere. Crisp may be come July, but who knows? If you want them to clutch up in October -- as they will have to -- you have to show them they matter in June.

Again, from a purely theoretical view the strategic criticisms make sense. But he wasn't managing for today's game only.

You get confidence from sucess. Those two guys are about the two worst hitter in baseball right now. If hitting two balls as far as the warning track all year haven't hurt Coco's confidence then getting hit for won't either. They won't get confidence from Tito's faith unless they perform. If he is going to leave those clowns in to hit them put drew up to hit instead of Cora.

Here is a great excahange I heard once.
Player: I have no confidence in my shot.
Coach: That's because you can't shoot. If you had confidence you would be deluded.

[Pandemonium67]

This whole confidence-building angle is horseshit.

I love it when Lahoud talks dirty...

I should preface this by saying I don't know how good a bunter Daihuke is. But if he's at all a decent bunter, then Cora should not have pinch-bunted for him. That burned up the best candidate to replace Lugo when they needed to pinch-hit for him later.

In the 9th, Drew should not have pinch-hit for Wily Mo. The correct batting order that inning should have been something like:
Wily Mo
Pedroia
Drew
Papi
Coco (or Hinske; Coco if avoiding a DP is crucial)
Youks
That's a lineup that could do some damage.

Timlin should hot have been brought in in a 1-run game with 2 on and 0 outs. Period.

Edited by Pandemonium67, 10 June 2007 - 09:11 PM.

[sox junky]

Tito has really gone back to being an OLD SCHOOL manager this year. Lots of sacrifice bunts (although maybe that's not bad considering the ineptitude of Lugo/Crisp), saving his closer for only save situations (although Okajima has been good), and batting 2 awful/struggling players 1 and 2 (quite often) because they're "fast" (OBP be damned).

I wonder what the boy wonder GM is thinking of all this?

[Rudy Pemberton]

I imagine the boy wonder is quite pleased that the team has the best record in baseball and the biggest divisional lead despite awful performances by several of his big money free agent acquisitions. In the big picture, things look pretty good. There has never been any evidence that Theo disagrees with the way Tito manages a game on a day to day basis, right?

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 10 June 2007 - 09:34 PM.

[glennhoffmania]

I imagine the boy wonder is quite pleased that the team has the best record in baseball and the biggest divisional lead despite awful performances by several of his big money free agent acquisitions. In the big picture, things look pretty good. There has never been any evidence that Theo disagrees with the way Tito manages a game on a day to day basis, right?

I don't understand this line of thinking. Rudy, I don't mean to pick on you because I've seen several people make the same argument in various contexts. Yes, the Sox are in first place. Yes, they have a nice lead. So what? Does that mean we're not allowed to question decisions by Theo/Tito and players' performances? The fact of the matter is, this team has flaws like every other team. If they aren't addressed, that "biggest divisional lead" may well evaporate. If the team is better with Lugo hitting 9th, or Timlin only pitching in blowouts, or not pinch hitting Cora to bunt in the 7th when Ortiz and Drew are on the bench, why not make the choices that optimize the roster? Justifying idiotic decisions and awful performances with the mantra that the team is in first place is short-sighted and irrelevant. Not to mention, this is supposedly a message board where we're supposed to discuss team issues, good or bad.

[irinmike]

This is not high school, where these guys need to gain confidence when the manager allows them to hit in a big late game situation.
Lugo has done nothing in this situation all year. At least Crisp's last two AB's resulted in well hit balls. However there is no way these two belong at the top of the RS lineup presently.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I agree with that- but is there any evidence that Theo and Tito are not basically on the same page? Does Theo want Lugo batting ninth and Timlin only pitching in ten run games? I tend to think, until there's contrary proof, that these guys are generally in agreement on these kinds of matters. Theo gave a lot of money to Lugo and Drew; I assume he believes in their talent level and ability going forward, even if I (or you, or both of us) may not agree.

What does Tito think about Lugo batting leadoff? I imagine he's on board; he gave him that money and billed him as a leadoff hitter, didn't he? Would he change his mind in June of year 1? Should he? Given what we know about Theo and his desire to preach patience, he's likely a heck of a lot more patient about these matters than me and you, and he has to be.

I like to think that this is a team effort and the organization comes to a consensus on most of these matters, with Theo being the guy in charge of personnel moves and Tito managing on the field moves; with obvious input from each side. I hope both side is pleased with the start while acknowledging that the season is young and there's a lot of work to be done.

[geoduck no quahog]

Too many trees. Not enough forest.

Given what some are saying here, Pedroia should be back in Pawtucket, never having had a chance to figure himself out of a prolonged slump. Maybe Manny should have been batting ninth after April. What about Drew? Is he ok now that he has a couple of hits? Not everyone can bat ninth. Not every hit can be in front of Ortiz.

Lugo is a proven ballplayer going through an extended slump. We don't know what he's working on with the hitting coach(es) every day. Most of all - as of now it's either him or Cora.

The batting order lately has been the aborted child of ridiculous travel schedules, a hurting Drew and NL parks. I predict once Drew takes up his position back in number 5, Youkilis will go back to #2. Maybe Pedroia switches with Lugo, but is there that much of a difference between Crisp-Pedroia-Lugo-Youkilis and Lugo-Crisp-Pedroia-Youkilis?

I don't follow enough other teams to state it matter-of-factly, but the couple I do follow have weathered slumps as bad as any the Sox have, and none have panicked. The season is just too long to always be reacting.

I'm as frustrated as anyone with Lugo, but unless there's a trade in the offing, I see no big advantage to messing with his head.

[glennhoffmania]

I agree with that- but is there any evidence that Theo and Tito are not basically on the same page? Does Theo want Lugo batting ninth and Timlin only pitching in ten run games? I tend to think, until there's contrary proof, that these guys are generally in agreement on these kinds of matters. Theo gave a lot of money to Lugo and Drew; I assume he believes in their talent level and ability going forward, even if I (or you, or both of us) may not agree.

I honestly don't know if Tito and Theo are on the same page and I didn't mean to imply that they aren't. If they're both happy with, for example, Lugo leading off, then they're both wrong and somehow it needs to change. If they win the WS with Lugo and his .270 OBP leading off, I'll be happy. But if it's possible that they have a better shot with Youks and Drew hitting 1/2, then I can't figure out why any GM or manager wouldn't be willing to try it out.

[Ananti]

Justifying idiotic decisions and awful performances with the mantra that the team is in first place is short-sighted and irrelevant.

I remember the exact same line of reasoning that was used to defend Gump in 2003. "Well he won 93 games last year and we're leading for the wildcard, so he must be doing something right."

We all remember how that turned out.

[BoSox Rule]

I'm as frustrated as anyone with Lugo, but unless there's a trade in the offing, I see no big advantage to messing with his head.

I'm not suggesting that we pull the plug on him in year one of a large four year deal, however, the advantage is that he would no longer be leading the team in AB's.

Also, it may be an extended slump, but it is a fairly extended the slump from where I am sitting. He has a .252/.324/.382 line in his last 146 games. Do I think he can become the player he was in Tampa Bay? Maybe, but let him get on that path while he's not leading off.

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

Last year on June 10, the Red Sox had a .312 hitter leading off, a .295 hitter batting second, and batting last in the lineup was a light-hitting shortstop batting .227.

This year on June 10, the Red Sox had a SS batting .214 leading off, a .224 hitter batting second, and hitting last in the lineup (except for the pitcher) was a .316 hitter.

[paulftodd]

Last year on June 10, the Red Sox had a .312 hitter leading off, a .295 hitter batting second, and batting last in the lineup was a light-hitting shortstop batting .227.

This year on June 10, the Red Sox had a SS batting .214 leading off, a .224 hitter batting second, and hitting last in the lineup (except for the pitcher) was a .316 hitter.

Alex Gonzalez then went onto hit 275/307/450/757 (and has as many HR's as Papi this year). But yeah, Alex Gonzalez did not hurt much in his slow start because we was batting 9th and playing great defense.

I am ok with not benching guys when they are in slumps, although sometimes that helps, look at Drew and Pedroia, both came out of their funks when given some time off. But when guys are not hitting for 1-2 months, and didn't hit for the last 1/2 of last year like Coco and Lugo, adjust the batting order a bit and get the guys who are getting on base up ahead of Papi and Manny, or in the case of Drew, drop him down in the order and ride the hot bat named Lowell (now Lowell has cooled and Drew may be heating up).

When Lugo or Crisp start hitting, put them back in the position where they do best (sorry Coco, Youk owns the # 2 spot now,or he should). Youk was doing quite well in the # 2 spot (353/450/549), he felt he was getting better pitches to hit, and since he has been jerked around in the order of late, he has cooled off considerably (208/394/292 in his last 8 games not including tonight). I prefer Youk to get the better pitches to hit at # 2 spot since he has some power. Besides, not including tonight Coco has went 241/317/352 at the # 2 spot, so it is time to end this Lugo followed by Coco crap at the top of the order and let them follow each other at the bottom of the order until they start hitting, it's not like the Red Sox steal and play small ball in the first inning which is the only inning Lugo is guaranteed to lead off.

The Red Sox have scored fewer runs from the leadoff spot than any team in MLB despite having the # 2, 3 and 4 spots in the lineup with the 2nd, 1st and 4th highest slugging percentage at those spots in the league

http://sports.espn.g...amp;season=2007

One of the justifications people use for Tito sticking with a player off to a bad start is Bellhorn. Bellhorn in 2004 was hitting 224 as late as May 21 and batting 2nd. The main difference with Lugo and Coco is Bellhorn had a 389 OBP at this time, he walked a ton. Coco and Lugo are not getting on base. Doesn't mean they should not play, just means they should not be in the 2 positions in the order getting the most AB's.

As for having Cora bunt, in his last 42 PA he is 128/167/128, so all he could do for you as a PH'er was to give up an out to get your 2nd slowest runner on the team after Mirabelli into scoring position. Pinch running for Pedroia made more sense and Drew could have pinch hit. If Arizona brought in their LOOGY, he would be unavailable for Papi if needed in the 8th, but sounds like he was not warming up so this was a good time to pinch hit one of your LHB and avoid either a LOOGY or their Ace reliever.

Edited by paulftodd, 11 June 2007 - 01:41 AM.

[CaptainLaddie]

I think that's the thing. Lugo isn't getting on base. And neither is Coco. They're both black holes.

The Red Sox have the lowest OPS out of the leadoff spot in baseball. And not by a small margin - it's by .022 points. It's a .579 OPS. Think about that - that's equivalent of putting, um, well, Coco Crisp (or Omar Vizquel) at the leadoff spot. And the difference between last and 3rd to last is over .040 points. That's RIDICULOUS, and this is the sort of thing that sinks teams in the long run.

The Red Sox are putting the #3 and #5 worst hitters in baseball in the same lineup, and often back to back.

Wow.

Edit - at least Jason Kendall and his "3 players in baseball have higher OBPs that I have an OPS" .440 OPS isn't in this lineup. How the hell does he have 201 at-bats?!

Edited by CaptainLaddie, 11 June 2007 - 02:43 AM.

[Vermonter At Large]

Here are a couple of points I don't think have been made yet ...

1. One thing about the N.L. lineup is that you have three hitters in a row (counting the pitcher) who are absolute shit. With a DH you can hide a light-hitting SS and a light-hitting CF and not get hurt too badly, but having them three in a row really stifles your run production. A manager simply has to manage under the premise that they aren't going to put up any sort of offensive threat every third inning or so. It also puts a lot of pressure on the rest of your lineup. Frankly, the Sox were lucky to take 2 of 3 in this series, especially only being able to use 2/3s of Papi/Youks/Lowell at any given time.

2. In this frame, I don't think the bunt was such a big deal because you have your three weakest links coming up. Having Cora bunt Pedroia over was probably the smart move. The odds of Lugo and Crisp collectively being able to plate the runner with a single from second are certainly higher than them being able to drive them in with nonexistent extra base power from first. Frankly, you probably would have wasted a more powerful pinch hitter in that situation. You play for one run. It just didn't work out.

3. This lineup didn't just get sucky, it's been that way all along. Fortunately, the pitching has been good and the hitting timely enough to put up the best record in baseball. That's no trifle, but this team has holes and is flawed, and if the pitching takes a hit, or you lose a key hitter and maybe it's a .500 ball club.

4. Tito has to do what he can with the lineup he has. For most of the year, he's had one third of his lineup misfiring offensively (not always the same three guys) and there has been precious little he can do about it. There isn't really an organizational option beyond Cora to replace Lugo right now, so we have to live with him. There are multiple options to replace Crisp offensively, and perhaps it's time to take them. Crisp should not been in the lineup in CF in Arizona, nor should he be in San Diego, unless he goes on an unlikely offensive tear between now and then. You have to fortify your offense with the pitcher batting, and that means playing Pena in CF.

5. There is a subtle, but distinct, difference between Drew and Crisp/Lugo in this situation. Drew has been in an extended slump, but barring a hidden injury or a catastrophic loss of talent, you have to assume that he will eventually come around. (You also have a hefty long-term contract as a very good reason to be almost infinitely patient with him, lol.) On the other hand, both Lugo and Crisp have been hitting poorly for over a year now, and there is less evidence and diminishing hope that either will recover.

6. I also agree with the prevailing sentiment about coddling these guys while slumping. They are getting paid pretty well to hit, and they're not hitting (especially ones who haven't been hitting for half a season and transcending the notion of slump). Get it together or we'll replace you.

So in summary, I really can't lay much of this on Tito. He's doing what he can do with what the front office has given him, and besides freeing Wily Mo, keeping Lugo and Crisp separated in the batting order, and hoping that Drew will miraculously begin hitting, I can't second guess much he has done.

I think the F.O. is on the first step, not Tito.

Edited by Vermonter At Large, 11 June 2007 - 03:08 AM.

[Mike in CT]

Then, in the ninth, Ortiz (11 homers, 42 RBI, .330 batting average) never got off the bench. Drew and Hinske each pinch hit in the inning. A walk to Hinske brought up Lugo. Still Ortiz sat. Lugo got an infield single, putting two on with two outs. Crisp was next. Francona let Crisp bat, and the result was a game-ending flyout to center with Kevin Youkilis on deck and Manny Ramirez in the hole.

“David could have hit one off the roof and it wouldn’t have mattered, we still would have been behind,” said Francona. “We still had David sitting there for later. He could have hit for [Jason]Varitek [batting behind Manny].”

http://www.projo.com...NE.34c421f.html

Amazing. He seems to only think of Ortiz in terms of "home runs". What we needed was the best chance to get a guy on base in front of Youkilis (who would have been the tying run). If Ortiz happens to hit a home run... fine!

It's frightening to read that quote. He just doesn't see what is so obvious to everyone else.

Edited by Mike in CT, 11 June 2007 - 03:36 AM.

[TheoShmeo]

Getting back to something that was said earlier, Francona managed that game, as he's managed other games this year and in the past, as if he was OK with conceding the loss. Whether it was bunting Cora with Lugo and Crisp coming up or the line-up construction, it felt like he was content with the series win and that game wasn't a huge priority.

Was building player confidence the reason he sat a guy who had two homers on Friday and three hits on Saturday? What other explanation is there for sitting your suddenly alive five hitter in the same game that you're sitting your four hitter? I know that Drew has traditionally needed rest but he's gotten a lot of rest this year and he was going to be off on Monday in any event. And I know that Drew was 1-8 going into that game against Johnson but a lot of players have low averages against Johnson and 8 isn't a big enough sample size to leave Drew out, all things considered.

Tito talks about the long view and the season being a marathon and not a sprint, but that view should guide how the players and coaches handle losses, not how they manage on the way to them. And I get that it's a slippery slope and you can't manage every game like it's the 7th game of the world series, but there's a huge gap between that mentality and several of the decisons Francona yesterday.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 11 June 2007 - 05:24 AM.

[Manny's Hammies]

Getting back to something that was said earlier, Francona managed that game, as he's managed other games this year and in the past, as if he was OK with conceding the loss. Whether it was bunting Cora with Lugo and Crisp coming up or the line-up construction, it felt like he was content with the series win and that game wasn't a huge priority.

Was building player confidence the reason he sat a guy who had two homers on Friday and three hits on Saturday? What other explanation is there for sitting your suddenly alive five hitter in the same game that you're sitting your four hitter? I know that Drew has traditionally needed rest but he's gotten a lot of rest this year and he was going to be off on Monday in any event. And I know that Drew was 1-8 going into that game against Johnson but a lot of players have low averages against Johnson and 8 isn't a big enough sample size to leave Drew out, all things considered.

Tito talks about the long view and the season being a marathon and not a sprint, but that view should guide how the players and coaches handle losses, not how they manage on the way to them. And I get that it's a slippery slope and you can't manage every game like it's the 7th game of the world series, but there's a huge gap between that mentality and several of the decisons Francona yesterday.

"Conceding the loss" -- I honestly can't stand these kinds of posts that are just so venty and uninformed. As if the manager's not coaching to win. Did it ever occur to you that he didn't want Drew to get back into a funk by facing a guy he traditionally has a really hard time with? Or maybe that Drew himself gave signs he didn't want to face RJ and stall his momentum?

Read the Globe today and realize this team was FRIED by the end of this trip. And think about how, yeah, maybe Tito was dealing w/ some frustration and folks at the end of their rope.

Or just complain and make uninformed comments.

[Manny's Hammies]

And let me expand on "uninformed..."

I'm not saying TheoShmeo's stupid or anything, but rather that we simply aren't privy to the information Tito is. It's wholly impossible to get into the mind of Francona -- esp. in games like this, at the end of a long, difficult road trip where guys are clearly on edge, testy and drained. There's no question that some moves yesterday really seemed...well, odd -- the choice to bunt in front of Lugo and Crisp being one of them. But for all we know, everyone on the bench other than Hinske pulled a Manny yesterday and wasn't really up for PH-ing. Everyone FREAKED out on the Timlin move in the game thread yesterday, but for all we know, that was Tito's only choice, given the situation. In fact, I think w/ pitchers in particular, we really never know who's capable of what on any given day -- if Ortiz can be "sore all over" from two games at first base (one reason he may not have shown up in the 8th), god knows how pitchers feel in between games.

But to turn any of that into "conceding games," I think, is highly, highly assumptive. Maybe Tito does concede games on days like this, but to my mind, we'd need a lot more information before we could jump to that conclusion.

[TheoShmeo]

But to turn any of that into "conceding games," I think, is highly, highly assumptive. Maybe Tito does concede games on days like this, but to my mind, we'd need a lot more information before we could jump to that conclusion.

Clearly, arguments can be made in support of every decision, and which support the conclusion that Francona was managing to win. I know what he said about his decisions. And I concede that overtly "conceding a loss" is too strong. That said, I think that what he did last night showed less urgency about winning that game than I would have expected. When Tito makes those kinds of decisions or does things like resting three or four of his regulars in one game, it seems as if he is managing with greater emphasis on something other than winning the game at hand than is necessary.

[Todd Benzinger]

The argument that "we don't have all the information, so being critical is highly assumptive" really bothers me. I don't mean to jump on any particular person who has made it in this thread. This argument has a long history on SoSH, having been a staple of the Grady defenders back in the "gump on the hot seat" threads from days of yore, and of the Tito Hot Seat threads, too.
It also justifies Jimy's infuriating two word answer to all comers: "manager's decision."

It has been rankling me for years, and here's my chance to try to refute it.

Personally, I think Tito is about the best manager there is right now. I thought his moves were terrible yesterday, but heck, you can't always be right. That said...

Here's the logic behind the statement:

We don't have all the information.

Therefore, those who are using the actually available information to make an argument are in fact relying on the assumption that there isn't hidden information contradicting them.

Therefore, argument A, which is that a decision with no obvious justification was actually justifiable for unknown reasons, is better than argument B that it was bad, even though B is based on the available evidence.

This is an illogical argument, essentially saying I'm right, you're wrong, can't tell you why, but if you disagree, I'll accuse you of being "highly assumptive." At the same time, it rhetorically claims to be taking the high ground of logic.

Now if you want to attack Theo Schmeo for going too far in saying Tito wasn't playing to win, fine. The point about Drew is a good one. But leave it at that. Don't invoke the realms of the unknown.

I happen to agree with TS here, but you can say "whoa, that's going to far. Tito took some calculated risks, and as it happens, none of them worked."

But don't make it into an argument of faith in the unknown VS reasoning about the known.

Edited by Todd Benzinger, 11 June 2007 - 10:36 AM.

[Fratboy]

5. There is a subtle, but distinct, difference between Drew and Crisp/Lugo in this situation. Drew has been in an extended slump, but barring a hidden injury or a catastrophic loss of talent, you have to assume that he will eventually come around. (You also have a hefty long-term contract as a very good reason to be almost infinitely patient with him, lol.)

This isn't quite true. I don't recall where I read it, perhaps in yesterday's Glob, but over Drew's 37 last PA's (not including yesterday's game), he was batting 324/390/480 or something like that. If that's slumping, I'll happily take it.

EDIT: I'm an idiot and can't figure out a better lineup. But I think Drew should have played.

Edited by Fratboy, 11 June 2007 - 10:55 AM.