[ctsoxfan5]

URISoxFan, on Jun 4 2007, 01:27 PM, said:

Time to get that spot in the home ready Zup...it was Friday against Farnsworth.

His infrequent strikeouts would be easy to miss. He's only struck out twice in his last 80 plate appearances (73 ABs), going back to May 3rd.

(edit: grammar)

This post has been edited by ctsoxfan5: 04 June 2007 - 08:34 PM

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Zupcic Fan, on Jun 4 2007, 01:25 PM, said:

Is it just me, or has it been a remarkably long time soince he has struck out?

He K'd on June 1.

However, he had 2 Ks the entire month of May, which is unreal. The guy must be all hell on an Xbox.

[URI]

Zupcic Fan, on Jun 4 2007, 01:25 PM, said:

Is it just me, or has it been a remarkably long time soince he has struck out?

Of course, your central point is correct...he doesn't strike out.

In his career (basically 4 months), he's only K'ed 16 times. No pitcher has done it more than once, and it has never been on 3 pitches. He's never K'ed twice in the same game, and only once, has he K'ed in 3 games in the same series (8-22 to 8-24 last year against the Angels). He's struck out 4 times at Fenway in his career, and only once on a full count.

Here are the pitchers that have sent him to the dugout:
8-22-06 Brendan Donnelly
8-23-06 Kevlim Escobar
8-24-06 Jared Weaver
8-27-06 JJ Putz
9-14-06 Chris Britton
9-17-06 Mike Mussina
9-30-06 Adam Loewen*
4-5-07 Zach Grienke
4-6-07 Joaquin Benoit
4-7-07 Ron Mahey
4-18-07 Victor Zambrano
4-24-07 Roy Halladay*
4-28-07 Kei Igawa
5-3-07 Horacio Ramirez*
5-23-07 Mariano Rivera
6-1-07 Kyle Farnsworth*

*Means at Fenway

Also, this post proves how awesome BRef's play index is. I <3 it.

[flymrfreakjar]

URISoxFan, on Jun 4 2007, 01:34 PM, said:

Of course, your central point is correct...he doesn't strike out.

In his career (basically 4 months), he's only K'ed 16 times. No pitcher has done it more than once, and it has never been on 3 pitches. He's never K'ed twice in the same game, and only once, has he K'ed in 3 games in the same series (8-22 to 8-24 last year against the Angels).

Just another reason to throw onto the pile of why he should be the leadoff hitter right now. He's got the 3rd highest OBP on the team behind Ortiz and Youk, best K/BB rate and works counts extremely well.

Meanwhile Lugo has the lowest OBP out of all regulars, a 28/20 K/BB rate, swings early and often and (obviously) leads the team in outs by a pretty good margin (though Youk has made 35 fewer outs in 6 less ABs). He's like a mini Pierre.

I know speed is (irrationally) sexy leading off and Julio is a perfect 17-17, but isn't small and scrappy supposed to be too?

If we have Pedroia leading off and Youk batting second we have our top three OBP threats at the top of the order— just makes sense to me.

[Eric Van]

On May 3rd, Pedroia swung at and missed a 2-1 pitch from Julio Mateo.

Since then he has swung at 139 pitches and missed 4.

Vs. Jason Frasor on a 1-1 pitch in the 8th, May 8, breaking a streak of 24 straight times making contatct.
Vs. Mike Mussina on the first pitch, 7th inning, May 22, breaking a 49 streak.
Vs. Joacquin Benoit on the first pitch, 7th inning, May 27, breaking a 17 streak.
Vs. Mussina again, on a 1-0 pitch in the 3rd inning, June 2, breaking a 31 streak.
He has a 14 streak going at present.

This post has been edited by Eric Van: 04 June 2007 - 05:09 PM

[AlNipper49]

breaking out from a megathread

[Harry Hooper]

Fascinating stuff, EV. DO you have comparable data for Manny, say from one of his hotter periods last year?

[Diehard]

flymrfreakjar, on Jun 4 2007, 02:24 PM, said:

Just another reason to throw onto the pile of why he should be the leadoff hitter right now. He's got the 3rd highest OBP on the team behind Ortiz and Youk, best K/BB rate and works counts extremely well.

Meanwhile Lugo has the lowest OBP out of all regulars, a 28/20 K/BB rate, swings early and often and (obviously) leads the team in outs by a pretty good margin (though Youk has made 35 fewer outs in 6 less ABs). He's like a mini Pierre.

I know speed is (irrationally) sexy leading off and Julio is a perfect 17-17, but isn't small and scrappy supposed to be too?

If we have Pedroia leading off and Youk batting second we have our top three OBP threats at the top of the order— just makes sense to me.

I'm a big believer in the 'non traditional' leadoff hitter, but for some reason, I like Lugo at the top of the order. I really don't know why, I just feel comfortable seeing him at the top of the lineup. What about: Lugo, Pedroia, Papi, Manny, Youks, Lowell, Drew, Tek, Coco?

Eric Van, on Jun 4 2007, 06:09 PM, said:

On May 3rd, Pedroia swung at and missed a 2-1 pitch from Julio Mateo.

Since then he has swung at 139 pitches and missed 4.

That's amazing. Amazing.

This post has been edited by Diehard: 04 June 2007 - 06:10 PM

[Lucen]

URISoxFan, on Jun 4 2007, 01:34 PM, said:

Of course, your central point is correct...he doesn't strike out.

In his career (basically 4 months), he's only K'ed 16 times. No pitcher has done it more than once, and it has never been on 3 pitches. He's never K'ed twice in the same game, and only once, has he K'ed in 3 games in the same series (8-22 to 8-24 last year against the Angels). He's struck out 4 times at Fenway in his career, and only once on a full count.

Just a little more of a pile on with the Pedroia love...

In his minor league career, he's struck out 77 times in 1040 ABs. That's 7% of the plate appearances he doesn't walk, get HBP, SF or SB. Or 6% of his total plate appearances. His minor league k/bb rate is 0.62. The kid may never be a power hitter, but he has the tools to be a solid to above average starting second baseman for a long time.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

flymrfreakjar, on Jun 4 2007, 02:24 PM, said:

Meanwhile Lugo . . . swings early and often . . . .

Not that this is a really big point, but just FYI in 2007 Lugo P/PA = 3.96; Pedroia = 3.94.

While I was looking for that, here's something interesting I found: Lugo's stats each time facing a pitcher:

1st time against pitcher: .254 .318 .386 .704
2nd time: .255 .327 .362 .689
3rd: .146 .186 .195 .381
4th+ .100 .182 .100 .282

How many hitters do worse the more often they see a pitcher?

[Lucen]

wade boggs chicken dinner, on Jun 4 2007, 07:26 PM, said:

Not that this is a really big point, but just FYI in 2007 Lugo P/PA = 3.96; Pedroia = 3.94.

It's further diminished when you factor in that in the (roughly) 4 pitches each player sees per plate appearance, one player is able to get on base on a regular basis while the other is not.

This post has been edited by Lucen: 04 June 2007 - 06:41 PM

[Eric Van]

Harry Hooper, on Jun 4 2007, 07:07 PM, said:

Fascinating stuff, EV. DO you have comparable data for Manny, say from one of his hotter periods last year?

He's 63 contact and 10 miss in his current hot streak that started May 22.

[Eric Van]

Eric Van, on Jun 4 2007, 06:09 PM, said:

On May 3rd, Pedroia swung at and missed a 2-1 pitch from Julio Mateo.

Since then he has swung at 139 pitches and missed 4.

Am I Mr. Curse these days, or what?

Haren got three misses tonight in 6 swings.

And as soon as I posted that Papi had 2 potential game-changing PA in the first 54 games (bottom of the 8th or later, chance to tie, lead, or win), he gets them in back to back games.

Very curious.

[Vermonter At Large]

wade boggs chicken dinner, on Jun 4 2007, 07:26 PM, said:

Not that this is a really big point, but just FYI in 2007 Lugo P/PA = 3.96; Pedroia = 3.94.

While I was looking for that, here's something interesting I found: Lugo's stats each time facing a pitcher:

1st time against pitcher: .254 .318 .386 .704
2nd time: .255 .327 .362 .689
3rd: .146 .186 .195 .381
4th+ .100 .182 .100 .282

How many hitters do worse the more often they see a pitcher?

Hmmm... I'm not quite sure what you are saying here. Do you mean facing a pitcher four times in a game? If so, I reckon quite a few do worse, since the pitcher must be pitching pretty well to have gotten to that 4th PA, etc

[SoxScout]

In all of baseball this year:

1st time: .257 .319 .404 .723
2nd time: .264 .329 .417 .746
3rd + times: .283 .347 .451 .797

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bspli...T&year=2007

This post has been edited by SoxScout: 05 June 2007 - 07:59 AM

[Maalox]

flymrfreakjar, on Jun 4 2007, 02:24 PM, said:

I know speed is (irrationally) sexy leading off and Julio is a perfect 17-17, but isn't small and scrappy supposed to be too?

You know what's really sexy? Common sense.

Pedroia has been red hot for a month. Before that he was ice cold for a month, and people perceived that his starting job might be in jeopardy. Is it really sensible to give such a player, a rookie, one of the most important role in the batting order based on a trend that's a month old and for all we know could have ebbed by now? You wouldn't buy a stock solely because it had been going up for a month, would you?

Pedroia's good. We now know that, in a general sense, he can hit in the big leagues - a happy outcome and a great relief. Now here's an Earth-shaking idea: how about everybody just leave the kid alone for four fucking seconds?

[TheIlluminati]

I trust a player, who is from all accounts really cocky, to not have a sharp fall off.

And he's the best guy we have on the team for the top of the order. If you don't get drawn to Lugo's and Crisp's sexy legs.

And just because of the way the top of the order is struggling and how Tito has slowly worked him in, I think the pressure is lessened. It has been a natural progression.

How about Pedroia first, Drew second and Youkilis 5th. Through the first 5 guys in the order a SP might end up at 30 pitches thrown. Of course it won't happen, but we need some OBP at the top to play on all cylinders.

[flymrfreakjar]

Maalox, on Jun 5 2007, 09:06 AM, said:

You know what's really sexy? Common sense.

Pedroia has been red hot for a month. Before that he was ice cold for a month, and people perceived that his starting job might be in jeopardy. Is it really sensible to give such a player, a rookie, one of the most important role in the batting order based on a trend that's a month old and for all we know could have ebbed by now? You wouldn't buy a stock solely because it had been going up for a month, would you?

Pedroia's good. We now know that, in a general sense, he can hit in the big leagues - a happy outcome and a great relief. Now here's an Earth-shaking idea: how about everybody just leave the kid alone for four fucking seconds?

Well, considering Tito's batted him #2 and lead-off the past two games does suggest that he's willing to juggle him a bit, even if that goes against common sense. He's responded by going 3 for 10 with two doubles, a run scored and 3 RBI as well. IMO common sense would dictate you would remove the player with the lowest OBP on the team from the lead-off spot and replace him with one of the team leaders, even if he's a rookie. Who's to say he won't rise to the occasion and succeed? I guess the bigger issue in my mind is getting Lugo out of the spot, not necessarily moving Pedroia up in the order. It just seems to me that he's as good a candidate as any to replace Lugo for a while.

[TheIlluminati]

flymrfreakjar, on Jun 5 2007, 10:04 AM, said:

Well, considering Tito's batted him #2 and lead-off the past two games does suggest that he's willing to juggle him a bit, even if that goes against common sense. He's responded by going 3 for 10 with two doubles, a run scored and 3 RBI as well. IMO common sense would dictate you would remove the player with the lowest OBP on the team from the lead-off spot and replace him with one of the team leaders, even if he's a rookie. Who's to say he won't rise to the occasion and succeed? I guess the bigger issue in my mind is getting Lugo out of the spot, not necessarily moving Pedroia up in the order. It just seems to me that he's as good a candidate as any to replace Lugo for a while.

Is it that hard for a veteran like Lugo or any player, to understand because they've been cold they're gonna get moved down until they get their bats back on track? It just helps the team out and they know the spot is theirs to take back. After 1/3 of the season is should be understandable and not hurt a physche.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Vermonter At Large, on Jun 5 2007, 06:24 AM, said:

Hmmm... I'm not quite sure what you are saying here. Do you mean facing a pitcher four times in a game? If so, I reckon quite a few do worse, since the pitcher must be pitching pretty well to have gotten to that 4th PA, etc

Not really saying anything yet, but yes. Conventional wisdom has that batters do better against pitchers the second or third time through the order; they can gauge movement, etc.