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2004/05 FA Review - Team Summary


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#1 philly sox fan


  • SoSH Member


  • 9747 posts

Posted 16 November 2005 - 06:01 PM

I was going to knock these summary posts last week, but life got in the way.

Anyway, the first table is simply each team ranked by “%AAV”.

Rank    Team      Total       AAV       VORP    $/10VORP    WARP    BPVal     Diff     %AAV
  1      STL      15.675     8.845     120.3      0.74      17.5    21.49     12.64     243
  2      CLE      14.25     12.9        65.9      1.96      13.5    21.24      8.34     165
  3      PHI      33.332    16.17       81.5      1.98      15.6    23.72      7.55     147
  4      CWS      31.5      17.375     100.8      1.72      18.9    24.12      6.75     139
  5      HOU      19.95     19.95       77.1      2.59      10.6    27.3       7.35     137

  6      MIL       9.3       3.63       22.1      1.64       4.6     4.82      1.19     133    
  7      TEX       8.9       8.0        52.3      1.53       9.4     9.82      1.82     123
  8      WAS      26.7      11.0        37.0      2.97       8.7    13.17      2.17     120
  9      FLA      64.875    25.875      96.0      2.7       18.1    27.79      1.91     107
 10      ARI      85.7      25.65       112.7     2.28      20.3    27.56      1.91     107

 11      MIN      21.85     10.91       42.6      2.56       9.4    11.48      0.56     105
 12      CHC      20.1      18.75       73.5      2.55      15.8    18.89      0.14     100
 13       SF      58.65     22.522      78.8      2.86      15.9    20.20     -2.33      90
 14      TOR      18.05      6.72       31.0      2.17       5.6     5.7      -1.02      85
 15       SD      14.3       9.3        37.2      2.5        8.6     7.84     -1.46      84

 16      COL       3.2       3.2        -8.9     -3.6        3.0     2.63     -0.57      82
 17      NYM     196.55     39.8       109.5      3.63      19.2    30.95     -8.85      78
 18       LA     143.3      44.55      143.4      3.11      22.4    32.44    -12.11      73
 19      BOS     125.35     42.85      130.5      3.28      23.3    30.73    -12.22      72
 20      ANA      53.25     21.125      60.4      3.5       11.8    15.28     -5.85      72

 21      CIN      40.3      17.9        10.8     16.57      10.3    12.89     -5.01      72
 22      ATL       2.0       2.0        10.0      2.0        1.7     1.3      -0.7       65
 23      PIT       0.975     0.975       7.3      1.34       1.0     0.62     -0.38      64
 24       TB       1.75      1.75       12.0      1.46       1.5     1.08     -0.67      62
 25      OAK       1.0       1.0         3.2      3.13       1.0     0.62     -0.38      62

 26      SEA     116.95     28.25       68.3      4.14      10.4    16.76    -11.49      59
 27      BAL       7.65      4.9        -1.6    -30.63       2.4     1.63     -3.27      33
 28       KC       2.5       2.5       -30.8     -0.81       0.7     0.39     -2.11      16
 29      DET      88.025    22.025      18.4     11.97       2.8     2.33    -19.69      11
 30      NYY      69.45     23.4876    -12.0    -19.57       2.9     1.85    -21.63       8
                1295.382   473.9096   1549.7      3.04     306.9   416.97    -57.43      88

I’m going to go through each team in the next section so I’m going to be a little light on team specific details for now.


The last couple of years the Cardinals have been a tremendously cost efficient team and to date the Cards lead the league in “%AAV” by quite a significant margin. The overall top 5 includes three of the four LCS teams, the upstart Indians, and the Phillies. That’s a pretty good link between a good, efficient off-season and on field results. It’s also true that these teams tend to have modest values in the “Total” and “AAV” columns. Good cost efficiency is generally a product of finding the right complementary players as opposed to trying to massively change a roster through free agency.

And that’s a nice segue for the 100M club (in terms of “total” commitments) – Mets (#17), Dodgers (#18), Sox (#19) and Mariners (#26). If I re-sorted by a production measure, then these teams (well, not Seattle) would move up to the top of the list. The teams received significant chunks of production, but at substantial long-term commitments.

Aaaaaaaaand, theeeeee Yankees are last! Theeeeee Yankees are last!

#2 philly sox fan


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Posted 16 November 2005 - 06:03 PM

This is a team by team breakdown of each free agent signing. Teams are ordered by the overall “%AAV” rank from the previous table.

1. St Louis
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Eckstein,D    2007    3   10.25     3.42     39.5     0.87      5.6    8.93     5.51     261
Morris,M      2005    1    2.5      2.5      18.9     1.32      2.8    2.79     0.29     112
Grudzielanek  2005    1    1.0      1.0      23.1     0.43      4.0    5.01     4.01     501
Mabry,J       2005    1    0.725    0.725     1.8     4.03      0.6    0.32    -0.41      44
Eldred,C      2005    1    0.6      0.6      13.7     0.44      1.2    0.79     0.19     132
Reyes,A       2005    1    0.6      0.6      23.3     0.26      3.3    3.64     3.04     608
Total                     15.675    8.845   120.3     0.74     17.5   21.49    12.64     242

The two main drivers of this ranking are Eckstein and Grudzielanek. The Cards signed an all new double play combination for a 2005 commitment of 4.42M (and 11.25M total) and received nearly 15M in “BPVal”. Those signings are even sweeter when you consider the terrible value contracts signed by their departed double play combination of Renteria and Womack.

2. Cleveland
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Millwood,K    2005    1    7.0      7.0      52.3     1.34      6.4   11.29     4.29     161
Wickman,B     2005    1    2.75     2.75     22.8     1.21      5.6    8.93     6.18     325
Hernandez,J   2005    1    1.8      1.8      -6.8     neg       0.1    0.04    -1.76       2
Cora,A        2005    1    2.7      1.35     -2.4     neg       1.4    0.98    -0.37      73
Total                     14.25    12.9      65.9     1.96     13.5   21.24     8.34     165

Most of the Indians cost efficiency is derived from quality players with pre-FA service time, but last winter they added an excellent season from Millwood and a surprisingly good one from Wickman.

3. Philadelphia
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Lieber,J      2007    3   21.0      7.0      28.9     2.42      5.1    7.59     0.59     108
Polanco,P     2005    1    4.6      4.6      45.4     1.01      6.6   11.92     7.32     259
Lidle,C       2006    2    6.3      3.15     10.0     3.15      3.2    3.47     0.32     110
Telemaco,A    2005    1    0.6      0.6       1.5     4.0       0.3    0.14    -0.46      23
Adams,T       2005    1    0.5      0.5     -10.8     neg      -0.8   -0.19    -0.69     -37
Geary,G       2005    1    0.32     0.32      6.5     0.49      1.2    0.79     0.47     247
Total                     33.32    16.17     81.5     1.98     15.6   23.72     7.55     147

It’s probably easiest to see in the “Diff” column, but the Phillies basically had a breakeven off-season outside of Polanco. I credited Polcano’s entire season to the Phillies, but much of his production occurred in Detroit. Urbina was a useful addition, but the Phillies would have probably been better off keeping Polanco.

Ed Wade was fired at the end of the season, but it was readily acknowledged that he actually had a pretty solid final season. He was fired for three years of missed expectations.

4. White Sox
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Dye,J         2006    2   10.15     5.075    35.7     1.42      4.6    6.35     1.28     125
Hernandez,O   2006    2    8.0      4.0       6.1     6.56      2.5    2.34    -1.66      58
Hermanson,D   2006    2    5.5      2.75     19.8     1.39      5.2    7.85     5.1      285
Iguchi,T      2006    2    4.6      2.3      30.9     0.74      3.3    3.64     1.34     159
Pierzynski    2005    1    2.25     2.25     17.7     1.27      3.5    4.01     1.76     178
Perez,T       2005    1    1.0      1.0      -9.4     neg      -0.2   -0.07    -1.07      -7
Total                     31.5     17.375   100.8     1.72     18.9   24.12     6.75     139

The White Sox brought in a number of complementary players for short money on short-term deals and for the most the transactions worked very well both in terms of cost efficiency and on field productions. And winning the WS too.

5. Houston
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Clemens,R     2005    1   18.0     18.0      80.6     2.23     10.4   27.2      9.2      151
Vizcaino,J    2005    1    1.25     1.25      0.3    41.67      0.3    0.14    -1.11      11
Franco,J      2005    1    0.7      0.7      -3.8     neg      -0.1   -0.04    -0.74      -5
Total                     19.95    19.95     77.1     2.59     10.6   27.3      7.35     137

The Astros off-season was roughly as successful as the White Sox’s, but by a very different method. Instead of bringing in several complementary players, they retained one very expensive great player. Vizcaino and Franco didn’t do much, but with Clemens on board that didn’t matter much.

6. Milwaukee
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Miller,D      2007    3    8.5      2.83     21.6      1.31     3.6    4.21     1.38     149
Bottalico,R   2005    1    0.8      0.8       0.5     16.0      1.0    0.62    -0.18      77
Total                      9.3      3.63     22.1      1.64     4.6    4.82     1.19     133

Milwaukee is trying to move from perennial hopeless rebuild to consolidating emerging talent. Milwaukee plugged a hole at catcher with a modest commitment to a decent, mid-30s catcher. My recollection is that the Miller deal was moderately panned last winter because a rebuilding team shouldn’t make any long-term commitments to players on the wrong side of 30. While that may generally be true, what you should see looking at these contracts is that these kinds of players at 2-3M/yr can often be very solid values. As long as the veteran player isn’t blocking a key prospect or forcing the team to skimp in the draft, then the generic knee jerk criticisms are very much misplaced. Miller filled a gaping hole for the Brewers and helped them meet their short-term goal of a .500 season. He might also play a role in the maturation of some of the Brewers young pitchers. Miller was a very nice small signing.

7. Texas
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Hidalgo,R     2005    1    5.0      5.0      -0.5      neg      0.7    0.39    -4.61       8
Brocail,D     2005    1    1.0      1.0      -0.9      neg      1.7    1.3      0.3      130
Matthews,G    2005    1    1.1      1.1      18.2      0.6      3.0    3.12     2.02     284
Dellucci,D    2006    2    1.8      0.9      35.5      0.25     4.0    5.01     4.11     557
Total                      8.9      8.9      52.3      1.53     9.4    9.82     1.82     123

The Rangers made one moderately expensive free agent signing and Hidalgo turned out to be a nearly total bust. However, Matthews and Dellucci emerged from their projected spots as bench players to make very solid contributions. Texas committed very little “Total” money and they came out a little ahead.

8. Washington
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Guzman,C      2008    4   16.8      4.2      -9.7      neg     -0.2   -0.07    -4.27      -2
Castilla,V    2006    2    6.2      3.1      14.2      2.18     4.0    5.01     1.91     162
Loaiza,E      2005    1    2.9      2.9      42.1      0.69     5.4    8.38     5.48     289
Osuna,O       2005    1    0.8      0.8      -9.6      neg     -0.5   -0.15    -0.95     -19
Total                     26.7     11.0      37.0      2.97     8.7   13.17     2.17     120

Washington is probably a surprise at #8. Guzman’s contract was excessive the day it was signed and it became downright brutal during the course of the season, but Castillo’s contract was relatively cheap and it basically worked out fine and Loaiza was a terrific value. The biggest problem with this off-season is the length of Guzman’s contract. During the recent market correction, MLB as an industry seemed to realize that “decent” or “solid” players should never get long-term commitments. It’ll be interesting to see if the industry slides back on that this winter.

9. Florida
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Delgado,C     2008    4   52.0     13.0      71.6      1.82     6.7   12.25    -0.75      94
Leiter,A      2005    1    8.0      8.0     -12.9      neg      0.7    0.39    -7.61       5
Vladez,I      2005    1    1.5      1.5      -0.7      neg      0.5    0.25    -1.25      17
Jones,T       2005    1    1.1      1.1      25.6      0.43     6.7   12.25    11.15    1113
Riedling,J    2005    1    0.75     0.75     -6.1      neg     -0.1   -0.04    -0.79      -5
Easley,D      2005    1    0.75     0.75     11.2      0.67     2.2    1.92     1.17     255
Perisho,M     2005    1    0.475    0.475     5.6      0.85     0.8    0.46    -0.02      97
Alfonseca,A   2005    1    0.3      0.3       1.7      1.76     0.6    0.32     0.02     106
Total                     64.875   25.875    96.0      2.70    18.1   27.79     1.91     107

Marlins gave out one premier contract to Delgado and then filled in around the edges with a lot of one year deals. Leiter was a nearly complete bust, but Todd Jones was an even better value signing and the rest were right around break even. If I had used actual 2005 cost instead of AAV, then Delgado would have been a great value. His actual 2005 cost was just 4M. If the Marlins can trade him without picking up more than 8M on the backend of the contract, then he’ll have been a nice value signing in addition to a tremendously productive one.

10. Arizona
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Glaus,T       2008    4   45.0     11.25     45.5      2.47     5.0    7.33    -3.92      65
Ortiz,R       2008    4   33.0      8.25    -20.4      neg      0.5    0.25    -8.0        3
Estes,S       2005    1    2.5      2.5       7.0      3.58     2.7    2.64     0.14     106
Counsell,C    2006    2    3.1      1.55     23.6      0.66     6.1   10.37     8.82     669
Clayton,R     2005    1    1.35     1.35     12.3      1.1      1.7    1.3     -0.05      96
Clark,T       2005    1    0.75     0.75     44.7      0.17     4.3    5.66     4.91     755
Total                     85.7     25.65    112.7      2.28    20.3   27.56     1.91     107

Arizona actually had a terrible off-season. The Ortiz contract was amongst the very worst and the Glaus contract was very risky. Glaus had a decent season, but those two big ticket items put the Dbacks in underwater by nearly 12M. Nevertheless, they came out as a net positive team because Counsell and Clark had excellent seasons for very little money. From a value perspective Counsell’s 2005 season is quite comparable to Bill Mueller’s 2003 season. There are enough of these ~2M dollar FA signings each year that it’s probably true that most years one of them ends up as a 10+M player. The extent that those seasons are attributable to luck or skill is often dependent on how people view the GM who signed the player. Epstein is smart so Mueller was a “skill” signing, but Garagiola is dumb so Counsell was a “luck” signing. Ironically, both GMs are currently unemployed. Go figure.

11. Minnesota
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Radke,B       2006    2   18.0      9.0      31.9      2.82     5.2    7.85    -1.15      87
Castro,J      2006    2    2.05     1.025     2.1      4.88     2.5    2.34     1.31     228
Redmond,M     2006    2    1.8      0.9       8.6      1.05     1.7    1.3      0.4      144
Total                     21.85    10.91     42.6      2.56     9.4   11.48     0.56     105

Minnesota had a relatively quiet and solid off-season. Most of their commitment went to bringing back a very solid #2 starter in Radke. Castro and Redmond were signed to very small contract and as a result had very low thresholds to exceed in order to be solid values. I think it’s still an open question whether or not a low payroll team should lock up veteran backups for two years.

12. Cubs
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Nomar         2005    1    8.0      8.0      11.8      6.78     0.9    0.53    -7.47       7
Burnitz,J     2005    1    5.0      5.0      17.6      2.84     4.6    6.35     1.35     127
Walker,T      2005    1    2.5      2.5      31.1      0.8      3.5    4.01     1.51     161
Blanco,H      2006    2    2.7      1.35      2.6      5.19     2.3    2.05     0.7      152
Perez,N       2005    1    1.0      1.0      12.6      0.79     4.4    5.89     4.89     589
Hollandsworth 2005    1    0.9      0.9      -2.2      neg      0.1    0.04    -0.86       5
Total                     20.1     18.75     73.5      2.55    15.8   18.89     0.14     101

The Cubs made a series of short commitments last winter. Garciaparra was a good moderate risk, high reward signing, but ended up a bust. Burnitz, Walker and Neifi Perez – yes, Neifi Perez – were good enough to offset the Garciaparra bust and the Cbus broke even for the season.

13. San Francisco
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Benitez,A     2007    3   21.5      7.167     1.3     55.13     1.5    1.08    -6.08      15
Alou,M        2006    2   13.25     6.625    48.8      1.36     4.7    6.59    -0.03     100
Vizquel       2007    3   12.25     4.08     18.9      2.16     5.1    7.59     3.51     186
Matheny,M     2007    3   10.5      3.5      11.1      3.15     3.7    4.4      0.9      126
Christiansen  2005    1    1.15     1.15     -1.3      neg      0.9    0.53    -0.62      47
Total                     58.65    22.522    78.8      2.86    15.9   20.2     -2.33      90

The Giants had one of the more notable off-seasons as they loaded up on multi-year commitments to older players. Benitez blew out his groin early in the season and that put the Giants in a value hole they couldn’t escape. However, in year one the trio of older than dirt position players – Alou, Vizquel, Matheny – all performed quite well. In the spring “studes” at The Hardball Times wrote an interesting article that older players – because they’re forced to sign shorter, less expensive contracts – can often be undervalued players in the free agent market place. These three Giants are good examples of how that can happen.

14. Toronto
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Koskie,C      2007    3   17.0      5.67     11.0      5.15     2.3    2.05    -3.62      36
Zaun,G        2005    1    1.05     1.05     20.0      0.53     3.3    3.64     2.59     347
Total                     18.05     6.72     31.0      2.17     5.6    5.7     -1.02      85

Koskie’s somewhat expensive deal for an older mid-range player is the kind of contract that MLB had been working towards eliminating. This one didn’t work out very well at all for the Jays.

15. San Diego
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Williams,W    2006    2   12.0      7.0       7.4      9.46     2.4    2.19    -4.81      31
Young, E      2005    1    1.0      1.0       4.4      2.27     1.1    0.7     -0.3       70
Hammond,C     2005    1    0.75     0.75      7.5      1.0      2.0    1.66     0.91     221
Seanez,R      2005    1    0.55     0.55     17.9      0.31     3.1    3.29     2.74     599
Total                     14.3      9.3      37.2      2.5      8.6    7.84    -1.46      84

The Padres got good value from Hammond and Seanez as cheap bullpen flyers, but none of these players really provided all that much production. Williams earned way too many of his incentives for a pretty poor season and ended up as a bad value despite the fact that his contract was so heavily incentivized.

16. Colorado
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Mohr,D        2005    1    0.95     0.95      1.8      5.28     1.3    0.88    -0.07      93
Relaford,D    2005    1    0.95     0.95     -3.3      neg     -0.1   -0.04    -0.99      -4
Greene,T      2005    1    0.75     0.8       5.0      1.5     -0.4   -0.13    -0.88     -17
Wright,J      2005    1    0.55     0.55    -12.4      neg      2.2    1.92     1.37     348
Total                      3.2      3.2      -8.9      neg      3.0    2.63    -0.57      82

As a rebuilding team still trying to recover from the self-induced shock and awe of the Hampton and Neagle contracts, the Rockies mostly sat out free agency.

17. Mets
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Beltran,C     2011    7  119.0     17.0      25.8      6.59     5.0    7.33    -9.67      43
Martinez,P    2008    4   53.0     13.25     66.1      2.00     7.9   16.46     3.21     124
Benson,K      2007    3   22.5      7.5      22.5      3.33     4.3    5.66    -1.84      76
DeJean,M      2005    1    1.15     1.15     -3.3      neg      0.2    0.09    -1.06       8
Cairo,M       2005    1    0.9      0.9      -1.6      neg      1.8    1.41     0.51     157
Total                    196.55    39.8     109.5      3.63    19.2   30.95    -8.85      78

The Mets were huge players in the free agency market last winter. Their “Total” commitment of 197M is over 50M more than the next largest commitment. The Mets also were blamed for inflating the starting pitcher market by signing Benson to a lucrative contract very early in the winter. Benson did end up over paid by nearly 2M, but that’s in the ballpark for a “B” pitcher. Unfortunately for the Mets, they only went 1 for 2 in superstar contracts. Of course, it will take several years before we can really judge the contracts for Beltran and Martinez.

18. Dodgers
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Drew,JD       2009    5   55.0     11.0      31.0      3.55     4.3    5.66     -5.34     52
Lowe,D        2008    4   36.0      9.0      25.2      3.57     5.4    8.38     -0.62     93
Kent,J        2006    2   17.0      8.5      60.5      1.4      7.4   14.63      6.13    172
Perez,O       2007    3   24.0      8.0       8.6      9.3      2.0    1.66     -6.34     21
Valentin,J    2005    1    3.5      3.5      -4.5      neg      0.2    0.09     -3.41      3
Alvarez,W     2006    2    4.0      2.0      -0.2      neg      0.5    0.25     -1.75     13
Dessens,E     2005    1    1.3      1.3      10.5      1.24     1.4    0.98     -0.32     75
Ledee,R       2006    2    2.5      1.25     12.3      1.02     1.2    0.79     -0.46     63
Total                    143.3     44.55    143.4      3.11    22.4   32.44    -12.11     73

When the Dodgers fired DePodesta many of the net commentators claimed that DePodesta had a good off-season because Kent was excellent and at least he didn’t sign Beltre et al to expensive contracts. The former is true, but the latter is just plain strange. I’ve never seen so many commentators give a GM so much credit for simply not doing something stupid. Did they realize that poor Ed Wade was also fired despite not signing Beltre to a huge contract?

In fact, DePodesta signed a number of free agents last year and Kent was much more the exception than the rule. Arguably, if given the choice the Dodgers would walk away from every one of these contracts except the one to Kent.

19. Boston
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Renteria,E    2008    4   40.0     10.0      26.7      3.75     1.8    1.41    -8.59      14
Varitek,J     2008    4   40.0     10.0      45.4      2.2      6.2   10.67     0.67     107
Wells,D       2006    2   13.0      9.0      24.1      3.73     5.2    7.85    -1.15      87
Clement,M     2007    3   25.5      8.5      21.6      3.94     4.8    6.83    -1.67      80
Mirabelli,W   2006    2    3.0      1.5       4.8      3.13     1.3    0.88    -0.62      59
Miller,W      2005    1    1.5      1.5       5.9      2.54     1.9    1.53     0.03     102
Halama,J      2005    1    1.0      1.0      -4.9      neg      0.2    0.09    -0.91       9
Mantei,M      2005    1    0.75     0.75     -3.1      neg      0.1    0.04    -0.71       6
Myers,M       2005    1    0.6      0.6      10.0      0.6      1.8    1.41     0.81     236
Total                    125.35    42.85    130.5      3.28    23.3   30.73   -12.12      72

What do you know, teams formerly led by two currently unemployed sabre GMs with 100+M burning holes in their pockets are back to back. I’ve already been through the Sox off-season once so I won’t be very detailed here. Renteria is probably underrated by WARP so he drags down the overall numbers more than he probably should. At some point Epstein was going to have to move from signing cheap complementary players to signing expensive foundation players and no matter how good or smart he is that change was going to drive his “cost efficiency” sores way down. The more relevent questions for the Sox are – did these players perform well (mostly yes) and will they age well (who knows).

20. Angels
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Cabrera,O     2008    4   32.0      8.0      18.9      4.23     4.1    5.23    -2.77      65
Finley,S      2006    2   14.0      7.0      -2.6      neg      1.1    0.7     -6.3       10
Byrd,P        2005    1    5.0      5.0      37.3      1.34     5.5    8.65     3.65     173
Yan,E         2006    2    2.25     1.125     6.8      1.65     1.1    0.7     -0.42      62
Total                     53.25    21.125    60.4      3.5     11.8   15.28    -5.85      72

The Angels committed much less to their 2004/05 free agents than the Sox and Dodgers (53M vs 125 and 143M, respectively), but they had a similar expensive and mediocre off-season. It’s received less attention because the Angels made the playoffs and, I guess, Stoneman is a more seamless fit into old school baseball man culture, but it’s true. Cabrera was adequate at best and his deal is too long. Finley was just plain terrible. Byrd was a nice signing though.

21. Cincinnati
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Milton,E      2007    3   26.5      8.5     -25.0      neg      0.1    0.04    -8.46       1
Wilson,P      2006    2    8.2      4.1     -12.2      neg     -0.4   -0.13    -4.23      -3
Randa,J       2005    1    2.15     2.15     29.3      0.73     4.7    6.59     4.44     307
Mercker,K     2006    2    2.6      1.3      10.7      1.21     2.1    1.78     0.48     137
Weathers,D    2005    1    1.25     1.25     11.5      1.09     3.8    4.6      3.35     368
Weber,B       2005    1    0.6      0.6      -3.5      neg      0.0    0.0     -0.6        0
Total                     40.3     17.9      10.8     16.57    10.3   12.89    -5.01      72

The Reds paid Milton and Wilson 12.6M for negative production by both VORP and WARP. And they still owe another 20M to them. These kinds of mistakes can often happen when not so bright second division teams get it in their head that they have to spend money in a given off-season. There are a lot of teams who seem to be in this position this winter. Things really could get ugly.

22. Atlanta
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Franco,J      2005    1    1.0      1.0      14.2      0.7      1.7    1.3      0.3      130
Mondesi,R     2005    1    1.0      1.0      -4.2      neg      0.0    0.0     -1.0        0
Total                      2.0      2.0      10.0      2.0      1.7    1.3     -0.7       65

Atlanta basically opted out of the free agent market. Franco was fine. Mondesi was a zero. It didn’t much matter because the real value players were promoted from the farm.

23. Pittsburgh
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Ward,D        2005    1    0.975    0.975     7.3      1.34     1.0    0.62    -0.36      63

Pittsburgh is a going nowhere team that was at least smart enough to opt out of the free agent market.

24. Tampa
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Gonzalez,A    2005    1    1.75     1.75     12.0      1.46     1.5    1.08    -0.67      62

Same as above.

25. Oakland
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Yabu,K        2005    1    1.0      1.0       3.2      3.13     1.0    0.62    -0.38      62

Oakland made it’s significant off-season moves through the trade market.

26. Seattle
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Beltre,A      2009    5   64.0     12.8      15.1      8.48     4.1    5.23    -7.57      41
Sexson,R      2008    4   50.0     12.5      56.2      2.22     6.5   11.6     -0.9       93
Reese,P       2005    1    1.2      1.2      dnp                0.0    0.0     -1.2        0
Wilson,D      2005    1    1.75     1.75     -3.0      neg     -0.2   -0.07    -1.82      59
Total                    116.95    28.25     68.3      4.14    10.4   16.76   -11.49      59

The Mariners tried to jumpstart their turnaround by signing two premier free agents to be cornerstones to their lineup. Sexson had a good season, but Beltre was terrible. At those prices you really can’t be at all happy with a 50% success rate. Year one was a loss, but we’ll have to wait another few years to really assess the wisdom of making these two commitments.

27. Baltimore
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Reed,S        2005    1    1.05     1.05      5.2      2.02     0.3    0.14    -0.91      13
Kline,S       2006    2    5.5      2.75     -3.0      neg      1.7    1.3     -1.45      47
Surhoff,BJ    2005    1    1.1      1.1      -3.8      neg      0.4    0.2     -0.90      17
Total                      7.65     4.9      -1.6      neg      2.4    1.63    -3.27      33

Kline was fairly expensive for his role, but basically the Orioles weren’t players in the market.

28. Kansas City
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Lima,J        2005    1    2.5      2.5     -30.8      neg      0.7    0.39    -2.11      15

It’s Burn Money Time!

29. Detroit
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Ordonez,M     2009    5   75.5     15.0      19.4      7.73     2.3    2.05    -12.95     14
Percival,T    2006    2   12.0      6.0       0.1    600.0      0.6    0.32     -5.68      5
Martinez,R    2005    1    1.025    1.025    -1.1      neg     -0.1   -0.04     -1.06     -4
Total                     88.025   22.025    18.4     11.97     2.8    2.33    -19.69     11
I generally seem to like Dombrowski more than most and there were stories that ownership wanted him to bring in name free agents regardless of the costs, but Ordonez and Percival were signed to terrible, terrible contracts.

30. Yankees
Player      Expires  Yrs  Total     AAV      VORP   $/10VORP   WARP   BPVal     Diff    %AAV
Pavano,C      2008    4   39.95     9.99     -1.3      neg      1.0    0.62    -9.37       6
Wright,J      2007    3   21.0      7.0      -9.8      neg      0.1    0.04    -6.96       1
Martinez,T    2005    1    3.0      3.0      10.4      2.88     1.3    0.88    -2.12      29
Womack,T      2006    2    4.0      2.0      -9.0      neg      0.7    0.39    -1.61      19
Sierra,R      2005    1    1.5      1.5      -2.3      neg     -0.2   -0.07    -1.57      -5
Total                     69.45    23.488   -12.0      neg      2.9    1.85   -21.63       8

And the GM got a sizable raise. What a boss that Boss. And of course they won the division anyway.