Nate Silver from his BP chat yesterday:
mattymatty2000 (Philly, PA): Simple question, but feel free to give as complex an answer as you want: Are the Red Sox this good?
Nate Silver: Guys that are going to cool off: Lowell (a lot); Youkilis (a little, but he's looking like a real power hitter now); Beckett (a little); Wakefield (a lot); Okajima (a lot).
Guys that are going to heat up: Ramirez (a lot), Crisp (maybe), Drew (probably), Matsuzaka (a little).
Right now they're on pace to win 113 games and I don't think they'll sustain that but they haven't been playing that far above their heads; they've had some hot starts but some cold starts too. I think it's probably a 100-102 win team in terms of true talent level.
dokomoy (LA): Does that mean you think they *will* win 100-102 games, or that on paper they're a 100-102 win team?
Nate Silver: I think they have 100-102 win talent but will end up at 103-105 wins because of their hot start.
Not too much of a stretch, but the Nate-ster also think the Mets are the team to beat in the National League:
The Red Sox are playing pretty well through what projected to be a brutal month. We can reasonably expect the Yankees to hang tough against the Sox (they're not really as bad as their win/loss record indicates, for those in denial) as well as the Indians and Angels in the coming days, but they'll have a reprieve in Interleague, when they play everyone in the NL West except the first place Dodgers.
Mike (NY): The braves need a lot of starting pitching. Do you think they will deal Escobar for a starter and do you think Elvis Andrus will amount to anything?
Nate Silver: The Mets are a 100-win team, so I think Schuerholz is going to survey the wild card race and make an optimal decision. Sorry if that's a lame answer; he's maybe the only GM that I won't pretend to give advice to.
Edited by Fratboy, 29 May 2007 - 10:08 PM.