Is this a sign of advances being made for "stat heads" or just a neato thing for the average fan? The DBacks have started flashing up a "win probability" % during the later innings of their games and are pulling data from the same WPA tables we're so fond of here. Does this mean they are more enlightened or is it just an attempt to catch some average viewers in something new (a la the hand % they show on the poker shows now a days).
Anyone else's local team showing something like this?
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3 votes
Win Probability in Broadcasts
Started by
ookami7m
, Apr 10 2007 08:28 AM
10 replies to this topic
#3
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- 28,737 posts
SoSH Member
Posted 10 April 2007 - 11:40 AM
That is awesome. It would be really cool if there was a little box on the top NESN graphic that showed an updating win probability percentage. I give the DBacks credit for being an early adopter. If fangraphs can do it, so can anyone else.
#4
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- 1,149 posts
Posted 11 April 2007 - 03:28 PM
While it would be nice to see, it would only work if the announcers really understood it.
Yesterday, fangraphs had the WE for the Sox listed as 100% as early as the fourth or fifth inning (although if you totaled the WPA, it was actually .998 at that point). I can just imagine what someone like Joe Morgan would say in response to that. I can hear him talking about how Drew was 1-2 with a sac fly and a home run for 3 RBI (WPA .052), so how dare this computer say that Crisp (WPA .111) was more important to the Red Sox victory when he went 1-5 with just 2 RBI. In the wrong announcer's hands, it could do a lot of damage.
Yesterday, fangraphs had the WE for the Sox listed as 100% as early as the fourth or fifth inning (although if you totaled the WPA, it was actually .998 at that point). I can just imagine what someone like Joe Morgan would say in response to that. I can hear him talking about how Drew was 1-2 with a sac fly and a home run for 3 RBI (WPA .052), so how dare this computer say that Crisp (WPA .111) was more important to the Red Sox victory when he went 1-5 with just 2 RBI. In the wrong announcer's hands, it could do a lot of damage.
#5
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- 14,482 posts
darrell foster wallace
Posted 11 April 2007 - 03:39 PM
I've posted about my opinions on this elsewhere but since this is actually being done let me throw in my worthless .02:
It's a bad idea.
I love the stats, I love thinking about the game in those terms and trying to understand my team and the players and potential moves in those terms. But, during the game there is a game on and that should be the focus. There will be casual fans who will turn off games in the early innings when these numbers are swaying in a direction they don't like. That will happen and that's not good for the game. It's not good for the ratings.
<lame part of me>Since all this stat does is provide Win/Loss probability it takes away from some of the enjoyment of watching the game because there will be some(many) who will just turn it off. Wins and Losses define a team but they do not define what is exciting about the game<end lame part>
We need to advance the announcers understanding of advanced stats to get younger audiences interested in looking at baseball from a different perspective but we do not need to throw up a constant chart showing how good you're teams chances are.
Lastly, Win Probability is a fluff stat; it's really only(in my view) for shits and giggles and this could lead to even more abuse of this stat.
It's a bad idea.
I love the stats, I love thinking about the game in those terms and trying to understand my team and the players and potential moves in those terms. But, during the game there is a game on and that should be the focus. There will be casual fans who will turn off games in the early innings when these numbers are swaying in a direction they don't like. That will happen and that's not good for the game. It's not good for the ratings.
<lame part of me>Since all this stat does is provide Win/Loss probability it takes away from some of the enjoyment of watching the game because there will be some(many) who will just turn it off. Wins and Losses define a team but they do not define what is exciting about the game<end lame part>
We need to advance the announcers understanding of advanced stats to get younger audiences interested in looking at baseball from a different perspective but we do not need to throw up a constant chart showing how good you're teams chances are.
Lastly, Win Probability is a fluff stat; it's really only(in my view) for shits and giggles and this could lead to even more abuse of this stat.
#6
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- 2 posts
Posted 11 April 2007 - 07:39 PM
I think it's pretty cool and I'm pretty surprised that the DBacks station decided to do this. I think it's a good sign that Win Probability is becoming more mainstream.
Out of curiosity, why do you feel it's a fluff stat? There are many things you can do with Win Probability which are quite valid. I'm not sure why it currently carries such a stigma.
Lastly, Win Probability is a fluff stat; it's really only(in my view) for shits and giggles and this could lead to even more abuse of this stat.
Out of curiosity, why do you feel it's a fluff stat? There are many things you can do with Win Probability which are quite valid. I'm not sure why it currently carries such a stigma.
#7
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- 348 posts
Posted 11 April 2007 - 11:19 PM
I too was watching the Dbacks game when they showed it. I think it is a very neat thing for the average fan to look at and thing about as well as stat inclined fans. They said it took the last 6 years of data into account for its Win Probability percentage.
#8
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stands for life, liberty and the uturian way of life
Posted 12 April 2007 - 10:28 AM
I've posted about my opinions on this elsewhere but since this is actually being done let me throw in my worthless .02:
Remember when I said I wouldn't be surprised to see it pop up with in five years? I fucking rule.
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