I probably should have split this up as Benitez/Percival and everyone else, but I ended up splitting it up by pitchers who received contracts with AAV of at least 2M and everyone else. There’s a big gulf between Benitez/Percival and the pitchers at 2-3M, but at least in theory those 2-3M pitchers are viewed a notch above their fungible brethren in the second group, but it isn’t a big enough group to make a third section.
Player Expires Yrs Total AAV VORP $/10VORP WARP BPVal Diff %AAV Benitez,A 2007 3 21.5 7.167 1.3 55.13 1.5 1.08 -6.08 15 Percival,P 2006 2 12.0 6.0 0.1 600.0 0.6 0.32 -5.68 5 Kline,S 2006 2 5.5 2.75 -3.0 neg 1.7 1.30 -1.45 47 Wickman,B 2005 1 2.75 2.75 22.8 1.21 5.6 8.93 6.18 325 Hermanson,D 2006 2 5.5 2.75 19.8 1.39 5.2 7.85 5.10 285 Alvarez,W 2006 2 4.0 2.0 -0.2 neg 0.5 0.25 -1.75 13 51.25 23.42 40.8 5.74 15.1 19.72 -3.69 84
Both of the expensive closers and both of the semi-expensive LHRP were busts. Those four pitchers combined for -1.8 VORP for just under 18M. The group was somewhat redeemed by Wickman and Hermanson who were signed as fairly generic closers and ended up having fine seasons.
The 84% of AAV looks ok, but it’s pretty misleading considering 2/3 of these pitchers significant busts.
Player Expires Yrs Total AAV VORP $/10VORP WARP BPVal Diff %AAV Mercker,K 2006 2 2.6 1.3 10.7 1.21 2.1 1.78 0.48 137 Dessens,E 2005 1 1.3 1.3 10.5 1.24 1.4 0.98 -0.32 75 Yan, E 2006 2 2.25 1.125 6.8 1.65 1.1 0.70 -0.42 62 Weathers,D 2005 1 1.25 1.25 11.5 1.09 3.8 4.6 3.35 368 DeJean,M 2005 1 1.15 1.15 -3.3 -3.48 0.2 0.09 -1.06 8 Christiansen 2005 1 1.15 1.15 -1.3 -8.85 0.9 0.53 -0.62 47 Jones,T 2005 1 1.1 1.1 25.6 0.43 6.7 12.25 11.15 1113 Reed,S 2005 1 1.05 1.05 5.2 2.02 0.3 0.14 -0.91 13 Yabu,K 2005 1 1.0 1.0 3.2 3.13 1.0 0.62 -0.38 62 Brocail,D 2005 1 1.0 1.0 -0.9 -11.11 1.7 1.30 0.30 130 Halama, J 2005 1 1.0 1.0 -4.9 -2.04 0.2 0.09 -0.91 9 Bottalico,R 2005 1 0.8 0.8 0.5 16.0 1.0 0.61 -0.18 77 Osuna,A 2005 1 0.8 0.8 -9.6 -0.83 -0.5 -0.15 -0.95 -19 Mantie,M 2005 1 0.75 0.75 -3.1 -2.42 0.1 0.04 -0.71 6 Reidling,J 2005 1 0.75 0.75 -6.1 -1.23 -0.1 -0.04 -0.79 -6 Hammond,C 2005 1 0.75 0.75 7.5 1.0 2.0 1.66 0.91 221 Franco,J 2005 1 0.7 0.7 -3.8 -1.84 -0.1 -0.04 -0.74 -5 Myers,M 2005 1 0.6 0.6 10.0 0.6 1.8 1.41 0.81 236 Weber,B 2005 1 0.6 0.6 -3.5 -1.71 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0 Telemaco,A 2005 1 0.6 0.6 1.5 4.0 0.3 0.14 -0.46 23 Eldred,C 2005 1 0.6 0.6 13.7 0.44 1.2 0.79 0.19 132 Reyes,A 2005 1 0.6 0.6 23.3 0.26 3.3 3.61 3.04 608 Seanez,R 2005 1 0.55 0.55 17.9 0.31 3.1 3.29 2.74 599 Adams,T 2005 1 0.5 0.5 -10.8 -0.46 -0.8 -0.19 -0.69 -37 Perisho,M 2005 1 0.475 0.475 5.6 0.85 0.8 0.46 -0.02 97 Geary,G 2005 1 0.32 0.32 6.5 0.49 1.2 0.79 0.47 247 Alfonseca,A 2005 1 0.3 0.3 1.7 1.76 0.6 0.32 0.02 106 24.545 22.1 114.4 1.93 33.3 35.83 13.71 162 Total: 75.79 45.5 155.2 2.93 48.4 55.55 10.02 122From this twenty-seven pitcher sample of low end FA relievers, just six reached 2.0 WARP. Mercker, Weathers, Hammond, Reyes and Seanez all had very solid seasons. Todd Jones had an exceptional season. I’m not sure what if anything they have in common with each other or that might separate them from their much less successful brethren.
The 162% of AAV looks great, but that’s largely an artifact of their very low cost. There is very little downside – the most negative BPVal is negative 150k – but potentially high upsides. The group total “Diff” of 13.7M is almost completely based on Todd Jones.
In terms of individual players there’s a 22% success rate. It would be interesting to try and look at every reliever that appeared in 2005 and try to figure out how many should be considered low level “fungible” relievers and then see how representative that 22% figure is. It’s at least a ballpark figure for what might be expected from throwing a bunch of fungible relievers against the wall.
