Jump to content


Yo! You're not logged in. Why am I seeing this ad?

SOSH

OK we're back on our main server.  It was taking a super long time to move *everything* back just to save a day's worth of messages.  I've been at this all day now and need to get back to my real job so.,... sorry.  Working on a better plan in case this happens again.  nip

Photo

2004/05 FA Review - Relievers


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
No replies to this topic

#1 philly sox fan


  • SoSH Member


  • 9747 posts

Posted 05 November 2005 - 10:52 PM

There are so many relievers floating around each winter, that this is far from an exhaustive list but it should have all of the significant names and it should give a pretty good flavor of what was available last year and how they performed in 2005.

I probably should have split this up as Benitez/Percival and everyone else, but I ended up splitting it up by pitchers who received contracts with AAV of at least 2M and everyone else. There’s a big gulf between Benitez/Percival and the pitchers at 2-3M, but at least in theory those 2-3M pitchers are viewed a notch above their fungible brethren in the second group, but it isn’t a big enough group to make a third section.
Player     Expires  Yrs Total   AAV     VORP   $/10VORP  WARP   BPVal    Diff   %AAV
Benitez,A    2007    3   21.5   7.167    1.3     55.13    1.5    1.08   -6.08     15
Percival,P   2006    2   12.0   6.0      0.1    600.0     0.6    0.32   -5.68      5
Kline,S      2006    2    5.5   2.75    -3.0      neg     1.7    1.30   -1.45     47
Wickman,B    2005    1    2.75  2.75    22.8      1.21    5.6    8.93    6.18    325
Hermanson,D  2006    2    5.5   2.75    19.8      1.39    5.2    7.85    5.10    285
Alvarez,W    2006    2    4.0   2.0     -0.2      neg     0.5    0.25   -1.75     13
                          51.25 23.42    40.8      5.74   15.1   19.72   -3.69     84

Both of the expensive closers and both of the semi-expensive LHRP were busts. Those four pitchers combined for -1.8 VORP for just under 18M. The group was somewhat redeemed by Wickman and Hermanson who were signed as fairly generic closers and ended up having fine seasons.

The 84% of AAV looks ok, but it’s pretty misleading considering 2/3 of these pitchers significant busts.

Player     Expires  Yrs  Total   AAV     VORP  $/10VORP  WARP   BPVal    Diff   %AAV
Mercker,K    2006    2    2.6    1.3     10.7     1.21    2.1    1.78    0.48    137
Dessens,E    2005    1    1.3    1.3     10.5     1.24    1.4    0.98   -0.32     75
Yan, E       2006    2    2.25   1.125    6.8     1.65    1.1    0.70   -0.42     62
Weathers,D   2005    1    1.25   1.25    11.5     1.09    3.8    4.6     3.35    368
DeJean,M     2005    1    1.15   1.15    -3.3    -3.48    0.2    0.09   -1.06      8
Christiansen 2005    1    1.15   1.15    -1.3    -8.85    0.9    0.53   -0.62     47
Jones,T      2005    1    1.1    1.1     25.6     0.43    6.7   12.25   11.15   1113
Reed,S       2005    1    1.05   1.05     5.2     2.02    0.3    0.14   -0.91     13
Yabu,K       2005    1    1.0    1.0      3.2     3.13    1.0    0.62   -0.38     62
Brocail,D    2005    1    1.0    1.0     -0.9   -11.11    1.7    1.30    0.30    130
Halama, J    2005    1    1.0    1.0     -4.9    -2.04    0.2    0.09   -0.91      9
Bottalico,R  2005    1    0.8    0.8      0.5    16.0     1.0    0.61   -0.18     77
Osuna,A      2005    1    0.8    0.8     -9.6    -0.83   -0.5   -0.15   -0.95    -19
Mantie,M     2005    1    0.75   0.75    -3.1    -2.42    0.1    0.04   -0.71      6
Reidling,J   2005    1    0.75   0.75    -6.1    -1.23   -0.1   -0.04   -0.79     -6
Hammond,C    2005    1    0.75   0.75     7.5     1.0     2.0    1.66    0.91    221
Franco,J     2005    1    0.7    0.7     -3.8    -1.84   -0.1   -0.04   -0.74     -5
Myers,M      2005    1    0.6    0.6     10.0     0.6     1.8    1.41    0.81    236
Weber,B      2005    1    0.6    0.6     -3.5    -1.71    0.0    0.0    -0.6       0
Telemaco,A   2005    1    0.6    0.6      1.5     4.0     0.3    0.14   -0.46     23
Eldred,C     2005    1    0.6    0.6     13.7     0.44    1.2    0.79    0.19    132
Reyes,A      2005    1    0.6    0.6     23.3     0.26    3.3    3.61    3.04    608
Seanez,R     2005    1    0.55   0.55    17.9     0.31    3.1    3.29    2.74    599
Adams,T      2005    1    0.5    0.5    -10.8    -0.46   -0.8   -0.19   -0.69    -37
Perisho,M    2005    1    0.475  0.475    5.6     0.85    0.8    0.46   -0.02     97
Geary,G      2005    1    0.32   0.32     6.5     0.49    1.2    0.79    0.47    247
Alfonseca,A  2005    1    0.3    0.3      1.7     1.76    0.6    0.32    0.02    106
                         24.545  22.1    114.4    1.93   33.3   35.83   13.71    162

Total:                   75.79   45.5    155.2    2.93   48.4   55.55   10.02    122
From this twenty-seven pitcher sample of low end FA relievers, just six reached 2.0 WARP. Mercker, Weathers, Hammond, Reyes and Seanez all had very solid seasons. Todd Jones had an exceptional season. I’m not sure what if anything they have in common with each other or that might separate them from their much less successful brethren.

The 162% of AAV looks great, but that’s largely an artifact of their very low cost. There is very little downside – the most negative BPVal is negative 150k – but potentially high upsides. The group total “Diff” of 13.7M is almost completely based on Todd Jones.

In terms of individual players there’s a 22% success rate. It would be interesting to try and look at every reliever that appeared in 2005 and try to figure out how many should be considered low level “fungible” relievers and then see how representative that 22% figure is. It’s at least a ballpark figure for what might be expected from throwing a bunch of fungible relievers against the wall.