49 replies to this topic

[jacklamabe65]

Stark, Gammons, Crasnick, and Olney have them winning the division; Neyer, Kurkjian, Law, Caple, and Karabell have them winning 90 games or more.

Steve Phillips gives them third place and a 82-80 record.

Now I know when to use the mute button.

Edited by jacklamabe65, 30 March 2007 - 01:58 PM.

[Fratboy]

Stark, Gammons, Crasnick, and Olney have them winning the division; Neyer, Kurkjian, Law, Caple, and Karabell have them winning 90 games or more.

Steve Phillips gives them third place and a 82-80 record.

Now I know when to use the mute button.

What's also telling is that Rob Neyer's predictions are more similar to PECOTA's than anyone else's; Steve Phillips' least similar.

[JohntheBaptist]

Is there a link to this? Can't seem to find it on ESPNs page. Thanks.

[V.I. Tessie]

Here's Yahoo's predictions (for what it's worth). Although I must say that I do like Jeff Passan's.....

Yahoo Picks

[DJnVa]

I know on ESPN Radio they mentioned to Gammons this morning that of their 4 baseball guys (Stark, Kurkjian, Gammons, and ???) 3 of them have the Yankees missing the playoffs.

Now, I am pretty sure Kurkjian picked the Yankees to win the East. And if Phillips has the Sox 3rd, the 4th expert isn't him.

[Razor Shines]

And if Phillips has the Sox 3rd, the 4th expert isn't him.

Unless he has Toronto or Baltimore winning the East. He's daft enough to do it.

[thisyearisthe]

It would have to be Buster Olney right?

If Steve Phillips has the Sox at 82-80, that tells me to clear the calendar for October. He's such a moron.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

If Steve Phillips has the Sox at 82-80, that tells me to clear the calendar for October. He's such a moron.

Of course, 82-80 and a third place finish would not be dramatically worse than our heroes managed last season. Just saying...

[behindthepen]

Well the Glob writers clearly are tired of having their readers complain about their negativity, so 3 of them picked the Sox to win the WS, while CHB had Toronto winning the division and the Sox the WC. (Ryan, Edes and Benjamin by the way. They didn't trust Cafardo, apparently).

[jacklamabe65]

Is there a link to this? Can't seem to find it on ESPNs page. Thanks.

http://sports.espn.g...7/team?team=bos

Scroll to the bottom.

Edited by jacklamabe65, 30 March 2007 - 02:38 PM.

[SawxSince67]

ESPN Prognostications

BOS Wins AL East

Gammo
Stark
Crasnick
Olney

NYY Wins AL East

Neyer
Kurkjian
Philips
Law
Caple
Karabell

edit-clarity

Olney: NYY 89-73, 2nd East, CLE 90-72 2nd Central, LAA 87-75 Win West (this suggests he thinks Tribe = WC, NYY OUT)

Edited by SawxSince67, 30 March 2007 - 02:47 PM.

[riveraulwick]

Yesterday on ESPN radio Dan Patrick picked the Red Sox to win the World Series. Not sure I put much stock in Patrick's thoughts on baseball but it does seem to be on topic here.

[Razor Shines]

Jim Callis also picks the Sox to win the division and the World Series.

From his 3/28 ESPN chat:

Jim Callis: My predictions (not the consensus BA ones that ran in the issue): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers win divisions. Yankees and Phillies win wild cards. Red Sox defeat Brewers in World Series.

(Insider Material) Link

[Rasputin]

Of course, 82-80 and a third place finish would not be dramatically worse than our heroes managed last season. Just saying...

Yeah, and if the entire team gets injured at the same time again it could happen again.

[Fratboy]

Jim Callis also picks the Sox to win the division and the World Series.

From his 3/28 ESPN chat:
Jim Callis: My predictions (not the consensus BA ones that ran in the issue): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers win divisions. Yankees and Phillies win wild cards. Red Sox defeat Brewers in World Series.

The Brewers? A division title wouldn't shock me - I've been high on them since 2005 - but a League Championship? I think the Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, and D-Backs are a better bet myself. Faith and Hope, indeed.

[JohntheBaptist]

The Brewers? A division title wouldn't shock me - I've been high on them since 2005 - but a League Championship? I think the Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, and D-Backs are a better bet myself. Faith and Hope, indeed.

If a division title wouldn't shock you- and it shouldn't, because they're a solid team and it's a weak division- then a league championship shouldn't either. Last season arguably the "worst" (on paper) of the 8 teams in the playoffs won the whole thing. Before the season, how possible would Detroit's winning the AL have seemed?

If the Brewers are good enough to win the division, they're good enough to get hot and win 7 games in October. I agree it's not the most likely pairing, but the postseasons of recent vintage have been anything but about being "likely."

Edited by JohntheBaptist, 30 March 2007 - 03:42 PM.

[redsoxstiff]

I couldn't donate a rodent's pooper for ESPN and their pronosticators sans portfolio...

I pick us...

The Wise Guys...MFYs and us 7/2...Mets8/1...Dodgers9/1...Cubs 12/1...Cards 13/1...I may have forgotten the lesser teams ...but the top dogs are US and them...

Tek may not hit

Timlin isn't ready

Slowell is may tire again...

Lugo may not reduce his throwing errors

Coco may not be as much of an impact playere as hyped...


YET...I'll take this beginning over any I can recall...

[satyadaimoku]

ESPN's All-American League team has "Manny Rodriguez" as the top AL LF.

I have to say, looking over that Blue Jays lineup, I think it really will be a three team race this year. I wouldn't pick them, but if they get some breaks, I could see Toronto taking home the divisional crown this year.

[Yaz4Ever]

Street and Smith had the Red Sox beating the Dodgers in the WS this year. Maybe Grady leaves Broxton in for one hitter too many? Sure would be a lot of familiar faces in the WS if this were the true matchup.

[Worst Trade Evah]

I know predictions mean squat, but with regards to Kurkjian, he was asked on Sportscenter today who he felt was the best contact hitter in the National League. His answer? Juan Pierre.

I kid you not.

Well, strictly from the standpoint of contact, that's kind of true. Juan Pierre averages about 35 strikeouts a year in about 700 plate appearances. I guess Eckstein is another high contact guy, but not quite like Pierre.

I'm really surprised Olney has the Yankees at 89 wins. I don't see why the Yankees won't win 95 on cruise control, and have a legitimate shot at 100 or more. With 38 games against Toronto and NY, I think we'll have trouble getting the wild card.

Edited by Worst Trade Evah, 30 March 2007 - 04:57 PM.

[OttoC]

I know predictions mean squat, but with regards to Kurkjian, he was asked on Sportscenter today who he felt was the best contact hitter in the National League. His answer? Juan Pierre.

I kid you not.

Juan Pierre had the best strikeout to at bat ratio of any player in the majors with at least 200 at bats last year. I guess it depends how you define contact hitter
.

[Crazy Puppy]

Isn't a good "hitter" generally someone who gets, I don't know, hits?

Juan Pierre has had at least 200 hits in 4 of the last 6 seasons (170 and 181 in the other two).

[Phil Nevin 23]

Maybe I'm negative and not rah-rah, but until I see a bullpen (besides Papelbon) emerge, I have trouble seeing us being any better than last year.

Until I see more, 89 wins...and yes, Phillips is wrong low, but not that wrong...

Let's all face it, Sox have some catch-up to play on both NYY and TOR to make it back into playoffs.

[Bowlerman9]

Now that Phil Nevin 23 and Steve Phillips both have us below 90 wins, I am definitely looking forward to October.

[DieHard3]

Maybe I'm negative and not rah-rah, but until I see a bullpen (besides Papelbon) emerge, I have trouble seeing us being any better than last year.

Until I see more, 89 wins...and yes, Phillips is wrong low, but not that wrong...

Let's all face it, Sox have some catch-up to play on both NYY and TOR to make it back into playoffs.

Glad to see someone else who hasn't drank the cool aid. I'd go even further, until I see a pitching staff (besides Papelbon) emerge in addition to some consistent offense out of anyone other than the middle-third, I have trouble seeing us make it past NYY or TOR.

[CaptainLaddie]

Catch up with Toronto?

Not for nothing, but Tomo Ohka and John Thomson don't exactly inspire fear. And Gustavo Chacin isn't exactly, um, very good. Toronto's bullpen may be a little better, but not that much more. I like their offense, but they're going to get into a bunch of 8-6 games when Halladay isn't starting. Even Burnett doesn't impress me much, and former nemesis Ted Lilly is gone.

I don't know. I don't see it. The Red Sox improved their rotation, their bullpen, and their lineup over last year.

[Phil Nevin 23]

Catch up with Toronto?

Not for nothing, but Tomo Ohka and John Thomson don't exactly inspire fear. And Gustavo Chacin isn't exactly, um, very good. Toronto's bullpen may be a little better, but not that much more. I like their offense, but they're going to get into a bunch of 8-6 games when Halladay isn't starting. Even Burnett doesn't impress me much, and former nemesis Ted Lilly is gone.

I don't know. I don't see it. The Red Sox improved their rotation, their bullpen, and their lineup over last year.

I just don't see it. I really think we haven't improved that much.

You know, I heard Schilling (G38, or whatever we call him around here) say 108 wins in 06 and several others say similar stuff. Where did that get us? 87 wins? Um, Yes.

As for this year, I am sure many people here for obvious reasons will be overboard with optism, which is fine, but I still feel like we're playing catch up to the elite of the league which was 5 teams ahead of us last year, NYY, TOR, DET, OAK and MINN.

[Archer1979]

I don't get all this catch up with Toronto tripe. The Sox basically mailed it in after the five game sweep and Toronto still only managed to go one game up (I can't possibly be the only one who remembers Javier Lopez being our lone bench player or the game with Gabe Kapler batting 4th).

Boston has added a pitcher whose reasonable expectations are that a win total north of 15. The bullpen no longer has Seanez which improves any late inning situation.

If you subscribe to the belief that baseball is about the pitching, then the Sox have improved.

[ichirob4ichiro]

Now that Phil Nevin 23 and Steve Phillips both have us below 90 wins, I am definitely looking forward to October.

What kills me most about Steve Phillips was during the first DiceK game on ESPN a week back, he was saying in the intro how he thought DiceK was a waste of money, and way too risky; how there was no way he could ever live up to the expectations. By the 4th inning ESPN were doing cut aways to Phillips on his hands and knees kissing DiceK's arse. He is such a flipflopper! I get the feeling if the sox are the best, he will be the first to point out why in due time.

Edited by ichirob4ichiro, 30 March 2007 - 10:06 PM.

[Phil Nevin 23]

The bullpen no longer has Seanez which improves any late inning situation.

If you subscribe to the belief that baseball is about the pitching, then the Sox have improved.

So they don't have Seanez any longer. And who exactly do they have?

[Pumpsie]

Glad to see someone else who hasn't drank the cool aid. I'd go even further, until I see a pitching staff (besides Papelbon) emerge in addition to some consistent offense out of anyone other than the middle-third, I have trouble seeing us make it past NYY or TOR.

It's "Kool-Aid," and at least we didn't drink the "Stupid-Aid." Most of the columnists are picking us for SOME reason. I think we have as good a shot as anyone in winning it all. I love the rotation. I love Paps as the closer. The bullpen is looking better as we get closer to the start of the season. J.D. Drew is going to be a BIG upgrade on Trot's 2006. Lugo's bat will be much better than Adrian Gonzalez's. Everything else will be about the same alltogether, which should give us enough runs with this pitching staff. The top five in the order will be more than excellent and I think Crisp will get over the hump this year and join them as a 6th, and that should be enough. By the end of the year, Pedroia will probably be a wash with Loretta's 2006. Lowell and Tek will be the only real backsliders and they will be more than offset by everyone else.

We have to play the games but, right now, I like our chances.

[Rough Carrigan]

So they don't have Seanez any longer. And who exactly do they have?

You're right. Your contrarian wisdom shines through the cant like a shaft of sunlight from heaven above. Look at last year's ERA's of the other guys trying to lead up to the closer:

5.35
4.32
5.07
5.06
6.65

Oh wait!
Those are the ERA's of the guys trying to get the game from Tomo Ohka and John Thomson to B.J. Ryan.
Jeremy 5.35 Accardo, Jason 4.32 Frasor, Casey 5.07 Jansen, Shawn 5.06 Marcum and Francisco 6.65 Rosario.

Yeah. No way the Sox pitchers can match production like that. And just because Vernon Wells had a year better than his norm last year and Reed Johnson had what might end up as his career year and Lyle Overbay had a better than usual year and Frank Thomas hasn't had two big years in a row since 1996-7 and breaks his foot if you drop a post-it note on it, why is that cause for concern? Juggernaut, eh?

Edited by Rough Carrigan, 30 March 2007 - 10:35 PM.

[Pumpsie]

You know, I heard Schilling (G38, or whatever we call him around here) say 108 wins in 06 and several others say similar stuff. Where did that get us? 87 wins? Um, Yes.

You DID actually WATCH the 2006 season, did you not? Um, yes? Well, you remember it, don't you? Injury after injury to the pitching, especially the rotation? Crisp, Pena, Manny, Tek all battling injuries for most of the year? That is not the normal injury situation and it won't be the situation this year.

[Archer1979]

So they don't have Seanez any longer. And who exactly do they have?

You're missing the beauty of addition by subtraction, but pick any one of the following who joined after Seanez left:

Comparing to Seanez (2006 ERA of 4.92 and WHIP of 1.70)

Brendan Donnelly (2006 ERA of 3.94 and WHIP of 1.34)
Kyle Snyder (2006 ERA as a reliever 4.77 but only 11 innings pitched)
Hideki (D-Day) Okajima (has no grade point average)

To be honest, by the time Rudy left Boston, I would have trusted Doug Flutie to dropkick the ball over the plate and have better results.

[GriffinDoerr]

I just don't see it. I really think we haven't improved that much.

You know, I heard Schilling (G38, or whatever we call him around here) say 108 wins in 06 and several others say similar stuff. Where did that get us? 87 wins? Um, Yes.

As for this year, I am sure many people here for obvious reasons will be overboard with optism, which is fine, but I still feel like we're playing catch up to the elite of the league which was 5 teams ahead of us last year, NYY, TOR, DET, OAK and MINN.

If everyone on the Sox had stayed healthy in 06 Schilling might have been closer to the mark, but considering just about everyone but the bat boys went down or was limping for significant amounts of time (I mean, c'mon - Varitek, Schilling, Wakefield, Oritz, Loretta, Youk, Manny, Crisp, Papelbon - it was beyond ridiculous), that certainly threw a wrench into the works.

As always, it all comes down to pitching and health. How's Oakland's starting rotation? How did they improve their lineup? Minnesota's pitching? Who have the Twins got after Santana? How about the Yankees? Detroit just lost Kenny Rogers for three months. What's that going to do to them?

There are many around who tend to overvalue the Red Sox, just as those who undervalue them, both apparently for the same reason - familiarity. But in trying to look objectively, I see in the Red Sox what can be (as always, with health a key) the top rotation in baseball. I see a standout closer. I see a bullpen that still remains in question, with some alternatives in Pawtucket who could provide good backup. I see the best 3-4-5 hitters in the AL, if not the MLB. I see some questions up the middle on defense, but I have more faith in Pedroia than many. A healthy Crisp could be a real key ingredient. I hope Varitek gets back into hitting form.

In the division, I don't see depth in Toronto's pitching. Ditto the Yankees. The Yankees will have a great hitting lineup, and should bludgeon their way to a lot of wins, but I think the pitching will ultimately be their Achilles heel.

[TFisNEXT]

I don't get all this catch up with Toronto tripe. The Sox basically mailed it in after the five game sweep and Toronto still only managed to go one game up (I can't possibly be the only one who remembers Javier Lopez being our lone bench player or the game with Gabe Kapler batting 4th).

Boston has added a pitcher whose reasonable expectations are that a win total north of 15. The bullpen no longer has Seanez which improves any late inning situation.

If you subscribe to the belief that baseball is about the pitching, then the Sox have improved.

I dont get it either. Like you said, we had a disaster lineup in there for the better part of 6 weeks at the end of the season and Toronto barely finished ahead. Sure, Toronto is not going to be an easy team to face and will probably be in the hunt for playoff contention, but if both teams are healthy (each team has guys that are very questionable for durability), I dont see them as being obviously better.

What can we expect to be better than last year's team?

-You have to figure we get much more offensive production from catcher...even Tek doesnt rebound back to over 800 OPS, it will better than the sub-.600 OPS we had from catcher position when he was out an extended period.

- Starting rotation. Beckett probably isnt going to put up an ERA of 5.00 again. Matsuzaka is almost certain to be a massive upgrade over whatever combo of Clement/Wells/Lester you want to call the #3 slot. The other spots look like they might average out to similar to last year.

- Right Field. JD Drew > Trot Nixon although he shares Trot's durability issues.

- Center Field. Coco cant do worse than last year, can he?

- Middle infield. Lugo will sacrifice defense from what Adrian Gonzalez gave us, but his offense will almost certainly more than make up for it. Pedroia I would hope can put up better than a .285/.345/.361 line that Loretta put up.

Worse?

- Manny probably wont put up a .321/.439/.619 line again, but it may not make him less valuable if he gets an extra 75 PAs with a lower but still typical Manny type line. Hopefully he can start 140 games.

- Lowell is a good candidate for obvious reasons.



Overall I think theres a lot of upside to this club, but still lots of risks with some older players and also injury prone ones. With that said, I think there is very little chance the team will sag lower than last years 86 wins and has a good chance to win many more than that.

Edited by TFisNEXT, 30 March 2007 - 10:34 PM.

[Resonance Wright]

The Yankees will have a great hitting lineup, and should bludgeon their way to a lot of wins, but I think the pitching will ultimately be their Achilles heel.

No kidding. I think Cashman sees this as a reloading year. The Yankees have bats but they'll have to have a banner year on offense, because their D will hemorrhage runs. I also think their clubhouse is a ticking bomb. I wouldn't be surprised to see them implode this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians go further in the postseason than the Yankees.

[kartvelo]

The Yankees will have a great hitting lineup, and should bludgeon their way to a lot of wins, but I think the pitching will ultimately be their Achilles heel.

No kidding. I think Cashman sees this as a reloading year. The Yankees have bats but they'll have to have a banner year on offense, because their D will hemorrhage runs. I also think their clubhouse is a ticking bomb. I wouldn't be surprised to see them implode this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians go further in the postseason than the Yankees.

I'm really feeling deja vu now. We've seen these predictions every season for years. I guess they have to come true eventually.

[Lucen]

There are many around who tend to overvalue the Red Sox, just as those who undervalue them, both apparently for the same reason - familiarity. But in trying to look objectively, I see in the Red Sox what can be (as always, with health a key) the top rotation in baseball. I see a standout closer. I see a bullpen that still remains in question, with some alternatives in Pawtucket who could provide good backup. I see the best 3-4-5 hitters in the AL, if not the MLB. I see some questions up the middle on defense, but I have more faith in Pedroia than many. A healthy Crisp could be a real key ingredient. I hope Varitek gets back into hitting form.

In the division, I don't see depth in Toronto's pitching. Ditto the Yankees. The Yankees will have a great hitting lineup, and should bludgeon their way to a lot of wins, but I think the pitching will ultimately be their Achilles heel.

I agree with this mostly. I think their offense will be good enough to win them the division, but when they find themselves faced with a strong pitching team, they'll have trouble. So I see them being bounced from the playoffs by the first really good pitching staff they have to face. Assuming a relatively healthy year, the Sox could very well be that team. A 4 man rotation of Schilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett and Wakefield (Or Lester if he comes back strong) looks pretty exciting for October. The bullpen of Donnelly (declining the last few years, but still very solid), Okajima, and a less unlucky Delcarmen leading up to Papelbon seems more than adequate and Papelbon is a dominant closer. I'm not high on Tavarez, don't think Piniero has much of a chance to be a good reliever, and think Romero will be lucky to make it through June with a roster spot... but if any of the three outperform my expectations for them, it only takes a decent group of relievers and makes them better. And this is assuming Cox doesn't end up in the pen and effective (I really hope they give him a full year in the minors). Nevermind the possibility that Theo makes a trade to shore up the pen.

This team appears ready to win 95 or so games and make the playoffs. If they can get there, they stand as good a chance as anyone to win it all.

[DieHard3]

I'm really feeling deja vu now. We've seen these predictions every season for years. I guess they have to come true eventually.

Yeah, exactly. The Yankees have won the division title for a gazillion consecutive years, and every year there's the same contingent here on SOSH telling us why this year is different. All those lists of "well such and so is an improvement on what so and so gave us last year and the only guy who might decline is such and such" can be made for every team in baseball. They're pointless. It's 162 games; lots of time for lots of unexpected stuff.

[Arock78]

Yeah, exactly. The Yankees have won the division title for a gazillion consecutive years, and every year there's the same contingent here on SOSH telling us why this year is different. All those lists of "well such and so is an improvement on what so and so gave us last year and the only guy who might decline is such and such" can be made for every team in baseball. They're pointless. It's 162 games; lots of time for lots of unexpected stuff.

So, unexpected stuff that somehow invariably leads to the Yankees winning the division is enough to refute the possibility of sufficient reason for believing the Sox have a chance?

[Phil Nevin 23]

Yeah, exactly. The Yankees have won the division title for a gazillion consecutive years, and every year there's the same contingent here on SOSH telling us why this year is different. All those lists of "well such and so is an improvement on what so and so gave us last year and the only guy who might decline is such and such" can be made for every team in baseball. They're pointless. It's 162 games; lots of time for lots of unexpected stuff.

Yes, especially the 'but we had so many injuries last year' argument.

Well, yes, you have 3/5ths of the starting rotation >35 years old and 1/2 the bullpen well past peak playing age, a catcher past his prime and rookies or 2nd year players at 1st and 2nd base. I'd say the expectation that we have less injuries this year to as likely as we have even more injuries, given our aging rotation, bullpen and unknown commodities throughout. It's a long season and taking a mulligan on everything that happened wrong last year not allowing us to win 100 games is a faulty evaluation.

At the same time, I could see a scenario where everything falls into place, Dice-K is as good as they're saying and Schilling and Wakefield hold up well in which case we could win 94 or 95 games. But that's as likely as we are a low 80's win team, I believe.

Probability-25%, <85 wins
Probability-50%, 86-93 wins
Probability-25%, 94+ wins

[GriffinDoerr]

Yes, especially the 'but we had so many injuries last year' argument.

Well, yes, you have 3/5ths of the starting rotation >35 years old and 1/2 the bullpen well past peak playing age, a catcher past his prime and rookies or 2nd year players at 1st and 2nd base. I'd say the expectation that we have less injuries this year to as likely as we have even more injuries, given our aging rotation, bullpen and unknown commodities throughout. It's a long season and taking a mulligan on everything that happened wrong last year not allowing us to win 100 games is a faulty evaluation.

At the same time, I could see a scenario where everything falls into place, Dice-K is as good as they're saying and Schilling and Wakefield hold up well in which case we could win 94 or 95 games. But that's as likely as we are a low 80's win team, I believe.

Probability-25%, <85 wins
Probability-50%, 86-93 wins
Probability-25%, 94+ wins

If we're speaking of aging....

Every member of the Yankees' starting nine, excluding Cano, is over 30 years old. Posada turns 36 this year. Mussina is 38, Pettitte turns 35 this year, and Rivera is 37. All three of those pitchers have had injury trouble late last year or this spring.

Not to say that the Yankees will fall apart this year. But if you're determining statistical probability vis a vis the aging process, they're worth a jaundiced look just as much if not more than the Red Sox.

[DieHard3]

So, unexpected stuff that somehow invariably leads to the Yankees winning the division is enough to refute the possibility of sufficient reason for believing the Sox have a chance?

Yes! Because when that unexpected stuff happens to Boston, Theo and Henry will get out their slide rules and their spreadsheets and the financial statements, call up Bill James for a MLE on the third best pitcher at Greenville, and then conclude that no trade makes sense because the VORPRAR+ is negative 1 run when you take into account potential spending on potential free agents in 2014. When unexpected stuff happens in the Bronx, Steinbrenner will get this years' version of Bobby I'm afraid of walls and then buy prospects back during the winter.

And from others, the ridiculing of Chacin and Ohka are cases in point of how SOSH uniformly overrates Red Sox players and under-rates opponents.

Chacin is a 26 year old lefthander with a career ERA in the AL East of 4.04; he was hurt last season but finished strongly in September with a 3.38 ERA in 5 starts. Uniformly in this thread he's been described as "not very good." Meanwhile, in SOSH ville those same posters are predicting that Josh Beckett -- he of the 5.01 ERA for his career in the AL East -- is on the verge of superstardom and a sure fire member of the "top 3" that everyone here is so enamoured of (one of whom is 39, the other of whom sucked last season, and the third of whom hasn't ever thrown a meaningful pitch to a major leaguer).

Tomo Ohka is a veteran pitcher with a career ERA+ of 111. Tim Wakefield is a veteran pitcher with a career ERA+ of 108. Here in SOSH land, that means Tim Wakefield is a highly reliable #4 who we can't wait to have back, and Tomo Ohka should be mocked. Okeefenokee. Whatever y'all see through those rose colored glasses.

I have the same prediction I had last season, which is that the Red Sox strategy of trading off lower financial risk for higher performance risk makes it impossible to say whether this team will win 85 games or 105 games. Dice-K may be as good as Barry Zito and they look great, or he might be as good as Hidecki Irabu and they look like fools--we can't know until he pitches a few regular season games. Manny might decide to play a full season, or he might get tendonitis and miss the last two months again.

[JakeRae]

Yes, especially the 'but we had so many injuries last year' argument.

Well, yes, you have 3/5ths of the starting rotation >35 years old and 1/2 the bullpen well past peak playing age, a catcher past his prime and rookies or 2nd year players at 1st and 2nd base. I'd say the expectation that we have less injuries this year to as likely as we have even more injuries, given our aging rotation, bullpen and unknown commodities throughout. It's a long season and taking a mulligan on everything that happened wrong last year not allowing us to win 100 games is a faulty evaluation.

At the same time, I could see a scenario where everything falls into place, Dice-K is as good as they're saying and Schilling and Wakefield hold up well in which case we could win 94 or 95 games. But that's as likely as we are a low 80's win team, I believe.

Probability-25%, <85 wins
Probability-50%, 86-93 wins
Probability-25%, 94+ wins

First off, it isn't really fair to count Wakefield's age the same as another pitcher due to the lessened stress of throwing a knuckleball. Unless you expect his freak rib problem to recur, there is almost no reason to expect anything other than health from him. Second, there really isn't any evidence that old pitchers, in general, are a bad thing. At some point, old pitchers break down. Until then, they tend to be more consistent than their younger counterparts. There is a reason why team age is positively correlated with team success in a relatively strong fashion and has been for the entire history of MLB.

Also, since every starter except Schilling and Beckett missed massive time last year, there is absolutely every reason to believe the pitching will be anything other than more healthy this year. The bullpen must improve by default since they can't really get worse. How much they improve is anyone's guess.

Both the offense and the defense are undeniably better this year than last. JD Drew, Julio Lugo, and Pedroia are all safe bets to be better than the players they are replacing. Crisp will rebound to some degree. Catching is more up in the air, but the downside is close to last year and definitely isn't below.

So, basically, I just don't see how anyone can look at this team and not see improvement over last year. The sheer enormity of the number of injuries they suffered regressing should've ensured that to begin with. The team still went out and improved all of pitching, offense, and defense this offseason. I can see being pessimistic about this team reaching the playoffs or reaching 95+ wins as opposed to something around 90, but I just cannot see this team winning fewer games than last year unless they are hit even worse by injuries than last year. Sure, that's possible, but it is highly improbable.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If anyone cares, the Baltimore Sun is predicting a Sox-Phillies World Series.

And from others, the ridiculing of Chacin and Ohka are cases in point of how SOSH uniformly overrates Red Sox players and under-rates opponents.

I thought familiarity bred contempt . . . .

But of course you're right -- if Beckett pitches to a 5.00 ERA and Manny plays 120 games and 'Tek and Crisp don't have bounce back seasons, and Dice-K struggles, the Red Sox are going to be in trouble. But you can create "What if?" worst-case scenarios for each team.

I think it's unquestionable that the Red Sox have more talent this year than last year, and they were in a pretty good position until the injuries mounted up. I think it's unquestionable that the Yankees are a little less talented than last year, particularly in their pitching, and that the Blue Jays are pretty close to both.

To me, it will all come down to the O's and the DRays only because every year, it seems that they pick one team in the AL East to roll over to. I don't think there's any rhyme or reason why this happens, but whichever team they decide to play tough is probably the team not going to the playoffs.

[nothumb]

One thing notably absent from this discussion so far is this: last year, the Sox were in the hunt until the big MFY sweep and subsequent folding. They were floundering before that, but they were still within sniffing distance. This team is at least good enough to do the same - and I think if we're close and the market isn't too unfavorable, Theo will go for it this year and add a piece or two at the deadline. I would expect this to be a CI bat if it does happen. Our status in terms of prospects and bargaining position seems a little better to me this year.

Basically last year I think they made the right call - there were too many holes to plug and the price was too high for the help we needed. The SP was blown apart, the bullpen was ragged and a lot of people were worn down. It would seem reasonable to guess that the starters will be a bit stronger this year and we have a little more depth - which means the bullpen will have a better chance of holding up over the course of the year. I'm not high on Tito's use of bench players / ability to save and rest starters, but maybe he learned from last year. If that's the case, the Sox will be in a better position to plug holes and make a run come the deadline, as they did in 04.

To me there's one question: do we have a good shot at making the playoffs? Once we get there anything can happen. I think the Sox have a good chance this year.

[Fratboy]

One thing notably absent from this discussion so far is this: last year, the Sox were in the hunt until the big MFY sweep and subsequent folding. They were floundering before that, but they were still within sniffing distance. This team is at least good enough to do the same - and I think if we're close and the market isn't too unfavorable, Theo will go for it this year and add a piece or two at the deadline. I would expect this to be a CI bat if it does happen. Our status in terms of prospects and bargaining position seems a little better to me this year.

Basically last year I think they made the right call - there were too many holes to plug and the price was too high for the help we needed. The SP was blown apart, the bullpen was ragged and a lot of people were worn down. It would seem reasonable to guess that the starters will be a bit stronger this year and we have a little more depth - which means the bullpen will have a better chance of holding up over the course of the year. I'm not high on Tito's use of bench players / ability to save and rest starters, but maybe he learned from last year. If that's the case, the Sox will be in a better position to plug holes and make a run come the deadline, as they did in 04.

To me there's one question: do we have a good shot at making the playoffs? Once we get there anything can happen. I think the Sox have a good chance this year.

At the trading deadline, I think they had a pretty good inkling that it wasn't going to happen. Granted, entering July they were coming off a fantastic interleague session, but look at what happened afterward:

1/4 against TBD on the road, which was unexpected
2/3 against CWS on the road, and they should have swept.
1/4 against OAK. Gotta beat the good guys...
3/3 against KC. Swept KC in three consecutive one-run victories in three very well-pitched games, but the offensive was as AWOL's as KC's. Not a good sign.
1/1 against TEX. Makeup game.
1/3 against SEA. King Felix showed why he was heir apparent here.
2/3 against OAK.
1/3 against LAA.

They'd moved from 21 games over .500 to 23 games over .500, but it seemed like here that they were lucky to be close to breaking even. In the following series against Cleveland, they should have been swept, had it not been for an ineffective Fausto Carmona. Save sweeping an Oriole series after being swept by KC, they never won more than 2 in a row for the rest of the season.