908 replies to this topic

[Eric Van]

Don't read anything into the fact that I started this thread . . . just got impatient, that's all.

Edited by Eric Van, 16 October 2005 - 11:53 PM.

[Eddie Jurak]

-- Candidates for LF (with Manny at DH and Olerud at 1B) are welcome; although that's an unlikely scenario, it shouldn't be eliminated.

I assume you mean Ortiz at 1B.

[dolomite133]

Casey Kotchman, Angels, is a young left-handed bat who if supposed to be a good all around player. What about him?

EDIT: He would come relatively cheap too. This is good because pitching is where we will likely spend the most money next year, IIRC.

Edited by dolomite133, 05 September 2005 - 03:28 PM.

[Randy Kutchers Mullet]

Lyle Overbay:

-Arb-eligible through next season
-Brewers likely need to make room for Prince Fielder
-Good control at the plate. Good K/BB numbers. Sees about 4 P/PA.
-Moderate power in the pre-2005 Millar style (20ish homers, 35ish doubles).
-His hit chart looks like he has the ability to line a bunch of balls into RF/CF at Fenway, but also go the opposite way. A handful of the flyouts at Miller (and elsewhere) that he hits to LF are going to turn into HRs/2Bs. So he probably wouldn't need to adjust his approach at the plate as some players might try.
-Almost no platoon split, so he could slot in before Ortiz or after Trot and it wouldn't necessarily require a PH. Doesn't seem to walk vs. LHP (low OBP).

[PedroKsBambino]

One very interesting player who may be available and for whom 1B would seem a potential position change is Scott Hairston of the DBacks. Formerly a top prospect, I've read that they are willing to move him as they are overloaded at the positions he is most likely to play. Cost is probably still high, and it's a gamble on whether he'll really hit well enough to play 1B. But it's a lot easier to throw out established MLB guys (T Lee, LeCroy, C Wilson, Broussard, Durazo to name a few) so I'll go off-the-beaten-path for the first one.

Positives:

* He's just 25, and really exploded in AAA this year, hitting 311/384/608.
* Very significant power at all levels for his age.
* While he only batted 200 times in 2005 (injuries and call-ups) his walk rate jumped over 10% for the first time. Caveat: I can't determine if some of these are intentional.
* Reportedly a good athlete and versatile, has been a passable 2B and was playing RF in the minors. So if other needs occur, he can move around potentially.

Negatives:

* Was not impressive overall in 2004 when he got 360 PAs at age 24 for the DBacks (248/293/442, 239 eqa)
* Hasn't played first so far as I can tell, is coming off left-shoulder surgery, price may still be significant
* Has benefitted from strong hitting environments in AA (El Paso,..somewhere around 110 park factor) and AAA (Tucson..129) as well as the BOB in 2004. But, he showed virtually no home-road split in 2004, either (and only 7 abs in Coors, so that didn't skew the road numbers too much).
* Batting eye has never been a strength, though he's flashed some evidence he has a sense of it (in the midwest league and in 2005, spring training 2005).

It's a gamble, and you'd want to pair him with a veteran 1B from somewhere, too. Travis Lee (hits lefty, good glove) would seem a very nice fit. But there's some upside there, and he may be able to do other things if 1B doesn't take.

[nazz45]

Okay, I don't have a ton of time right now, but Josh Willingham intrigues me from the Marlins. He is a converted catcher (and from reports, not a good one) and I don't believe he has seen time at first yet, but from all accounts, he is a 1B or DH in the making. With Lo Duca and Delgado signed up for the next few years at catcher and first respectively for the Marlins, and with Cabrera and Hermida filling the corner outfield positions for the next decade, Willingham has no spot on the roster as a regular. Add to the fact that Jason Stokes is ahead of him on the depth chart at first (another possible target?) and Willingham has turned 26.

The Marlins called him up as their backup catcher earlier in the year, but he suffered a stress fracture in his left forearm. He was finally activated this past Friday to serve as the team's third catcher.

All right, to the numbers. This year for the Isotopes, Willingham put up a line of .324/.455/.676 in 66 games (Hitters park?). He hit 19 home runs, 14 doubles, 3 triples and walked 47 times to 54 strikeouts. During rehab at AAA, he was 4 for 23 with 7 Ks and 3 BBs.

The negatives are quite clear - he has little to no experience at 1B, he will be 27 by the start of next season, he has a whopping total of 15 games in the majors and has not proven much with his limited time.

He certainly isn't a guy I'd be knocking down the door to get, but perhaps he is undervalued by the Marlins and can be acquired cheaply during the off-season. (BA had him as a top 100 prospect, correct?)

If not him, Stokes is also an interesting option.

Edited by nazz45, 05 September 2005 - 05:23 PM.

[PedroSpecialK]

Well, my top choice would obviously be Adam Dunn. I would, without hesitation, trade Jon Lester, Anibal Sanchez, and Hanley Ramirez to attain him, and immediately sign him to a good-length (4-5 year) extension. I would then play Ramirez in left, Dunn at first, and Ortiz at DH. To play centerfield (An extension for Dunn would likely take a good amount of money out of the Sox ~$30-40m offseason budget, thus making it that much more difficult to resign Damon), I would sign a free agent like Gary Matthews Jr. (good power for CF, decent patience, albeit in a hitter's haven) to a 2 year deal at around $4m per season, or even Dave Roberts on a 1 year deal. If Randy Winn is let go by San Francisco, though, he'd likely be my top target, but that seems unlikely.

This entire scenario is contingent on whether the Reds will be willing to trade Dunn. Unfortunately for us, this does not seem like the case, so if Dunn is completely unattainable, this would be my offseason scenario for first base:

I would go hard after Carlos Pena. This is a guy who was in danger of being non-tendered by the Tigers after his designation for assignment earlier this year. With a recent hot streak, his value has soared. This is bad news for the Sox, as I believe that Pena would be an ideal first baseman for them.

He works the count very well, evidenced by his .090 career ISO Patience, and has tremendous power capability (not on the level of Adam Dunn, but not too shabby either) as his career HR/AB rate is 20.3. For comparison, Hank Blalock's career HR/AB rate is 21.8. His Major League numbers are really no fluke either, as in his career in the minors, he's put up a .274/.371/.495 line with nearly the same rates in all departments as in the majors. I think Pena can be a very solid first baseman with the capability to put up a .850 OPS from first without costing $11m like Paul Konerko will to produce around the same amount.

He's also a local guy (Northeastern), and is, by all accounts, very good with the glove. I think he'd be a great choice for the Sox to pick up (if non-tendered) or trade for in the offseason (Chris Shelton is making a strong case to be the Tigers' starting 1B next year).

Yet another option for the Sox (and probably my favorite) is Nick Johnson of the Nationals. The Nationals have a huge logjam over the next few years in both the outfield and at firstbase, with Brad Wilkerson being forced to take PT from Johnson due to having Marlon Byrd, Jose Guillen, and Preston Wilson (not to mention Brandon Watson) in the outfield.

Johnson has been very popular at SoSH over the years (even as a Yankee) due to his Giambi-esque patience and good amount of gap power. His downside, however, is that he is oft-injured and doesn't display a good amount of home run power (at least not for a first baseman). Now, this is not too big a downside for the amount of upside he can provide all for a small amount of money. Over the last three years, Johnson's K-BB rate has been 178-190, and his ISO patience has been .113. He takes a huge amount of pitches and knows how to get on base, and has a decent slugging percentage to boot (.451). Unlike some lefty 1Bmen, he doesn't need a platoon partner (in fact, he has a reverse split), and he has very even splits wherever he goes (Home, Road, Grass, Turf, Day, Night, you name it).

I would likely trade the Nats Luis Soto + Anibal Sanchez or straight up for Hanley Ramirez (Hey, Jim Bowden loves those toolsy players), and I think we could get him for even less.

[Gambler7]

I still think the best thing for the team and the player himself is to have Nixon play first base. Help his legs, his back, his career. I am partially assuming their are more OF options available than first base options (Such as Brian Giles...who for whatever reason really seems to stay under the radar, but is 34). Not to mention Nixon is a lefty as well.

Nixon is a big part of this team, clubhouse wise, and yes, I take that as being important to a team. He is still relatively young, and if you can keep him healthy he could be very productive for this team and fill that position for years to come.

Now we have no idea how well Nixon would take to the position or if he would be willing, especially if it is a contract year for him (Can not find his contract info for 2007, if he has another option or not). So that's the big question.

Edited by Gambler7, 05 September 2005 - 06:39 PM.

[PedroSpecialK]

I still think the best thing for the team and the player himself is to have Nixon play first base. Help his legs, his back, his career. He is a lefty and I am partially assuming their are more OF options available than first base options (Such as Brian Giles...who for whatever reason really seems to stay under the radar, but is 34). Not to mention Nixon is a lefty as well.

Now we have no idea how well Nixon would take to the position or if he would be willing, especially if it is a contract year for him (Can not find his contract info for 2007, if he has another option or not). So that's the big question.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nixon does not have an option for 2007 - next year will be the last of his contract. I am willing to bet that by the end of 2006, one of David Murphy, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brandon Moss, or even Jeff Corsaletti will be knocking on the door in AAA, and that unless we sign a stopgap at 1B, there really will be no place for Nixon. I say we keep him in right, as it's a lot easier to find his kind of production at 1B than in RF.

[NYCSox]

Here are three more suggestions.

First, Chad Tracy of the D-Backs. He's having a very good season so far (20 HRs, 844 OPS) and is only 25 years old. Like Hairston (another one of my favorites), he may be the victim of a numbers game in AZ with Jackson taking over at 1B and Quentin joining the OF next season, though I suspect that Hairston will be offered up before Tracy. He's not showing a significant platoon split yet, though it's a little hard to say based on 72 PAs against LHP. He's also hitting well away from the BOP so his production has not been inflated by his park. On the downside, he doesn't draw many walks (only 27 in 412 PA). Also, he's not going to come cheap given that he is having a solid year. So it may very well cost us two top prospects.

Second, Xavier Nady of the Pads. He's 27 years old and is having a solid, though unspectacular season (13 HRs, 769 OPS). He's hitting better against LHP (810 OPS vs 742 OPS), though part of that may be related to the fact that he was essentially platooning before Nevin was traded. He's also hitting well away from Petco so he may benefit from a change to a more hitter friendly environment. On the downside, he doesn't draw many walks (only 19 in 312 PA). Given his age, he should come much cheaper than Tracy, but the sense is that Towers is one of his biggest supporters. It should certainly cost us at least one top prospect. There's a chance for a Jason Bay-like breakthrough for him at 27.

Finally, Brad Wilkerson of the Nats. He's 28 years old and is having a very disappointing season, especially after the numbers he put up last season (32 HRs, 872 OPS). He is part of a crowded 1B/OF situation with Johnson, Church, Guillen, Byrd and Watson (IIRC, Wilson is a FA after the season so I'm not counting him in the mix). Based strictly on OPS, he's not doing much better away from RFK (778 vs 750), but he has not hit with any power at home (380 SLG). He seems to be another guy who could benefit from a change of scenery. Another positive is that he can play a good CF in case Damon moves on. And those 71 walks so far don't look bad. Also, he should be arb eligible this season and a FA after next season, so it may be part of Bowden's (or his successor's) directive to move him in order to cut costs. He may come cheaper than either Nady or Tracy.

Of course, there's also the Nixon to 1B angle that has been discussed elsewhere on SOSH as well as the let Damon walk/sign Konerko idea. If that does happen, the Wilkerson should be the top option to replace Damon in CF where he could then move to LF, RF or 1B as needed in order to accommodate Ellsbury.

Edit: Typos and other clean up.

Edited by NYCSox, 05 September 2005 - 08:06 PM.

[Gambler7]

"as it's a lot easier to find his kind of production at 1B than in RF."

I think it used to be. But if you look around this year at first base, there's not a lot out there with the type of production a healthy Nixon could give you (besides the big names of course which would be irrelevent to the Sox next year). I may be wrong, but I think with this move you would know the type of production Nixon would give you at first base (instead of taking a chance on a younger guy, etc), and then would have more options in finding someone to take over RF.

It being a contract year for him would make it more difficult, unless he feels it would be a smarter move to lengthen his career, but that is doubtful.

[PedroKsBambino]

I like the Nixon to 1B idea on its own, but the problem is the one discussed before: who do you replace him with in RF?

Giles is a possibility, though I doubt the Sox are going to sink money into Damon and Giles. And Giles is aging (34) and supposedly the top priority of the Padres in the offseason.

Milton Bradley could play RF in Fenway...but I'll pass.

Hideki Matsui is someone the Sox will sniff around, if only to drive the price up. But I can't see him getting away from NYC---they'll bid up into the stratosphere if need be, I believe.

Are the replacement options in RF enough better than those at 1B to justify moving Nixon? Depends, I suppose, on what you think of Nixon's range and, somewhat, what he thinks of the move. It's certainly possible that there's more favorable guys out there in RF, if you extend the search to include minor-leaguers and platoon-types who are out there.

Edited by PedroKsBambino, 05 September 2005 - 06:51 PM.

[PedroSpecialK]

I like the Nixon to 1B idea on its own, but the problem is the one discussed before: who do you replace him with in RF?

Giles is a possibility, though I doubt the Sox are going to sink money into Damon and Giles.  And Giles is aging (34) and supposedly the top priority of the Padres in the offseason.

Milton Bradley could play RF in Fenway...but I'll pass.

Hideki Matsui is someone the Sox will sniff around, if only to drive the price up.  But I can't see him getting away from NYC---they'll bid up into the stratosphere if need be, I believe.

Are the replacement options in RF enough better than those at 1B to justify moving Nixon?  Depends, I suppose, on what you think of Nixon's range and, somewhat, what he thinks of the move.  It's certainly possible that there's more favorable guys out there in RF, if you extend the search to include minor-leaguers and platoon-types who are out there.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Giles' range in right is much, much worse than Nixon's. Bradley's not a free agent, and I just can't seem to believe that DePo would trade a centerfielder who can put up an .800 OPS in Chavez Ravine for the price of likely $4m next year. Matsui, I think there's absolutely no chance of. I really don't think the outfielders on the market this season would warrant a move of Nixon to first base, simply because you're going to have players like Erubiel Durazo in the bargain bin that you can get for chump change and split time at 1st with Ortiz.

[TheYellowDart5]

A good place to start with this might be with a list of upcoming free agent 1B next year.

Rafael Palmeiro
Jose Offerman
Frank Thomas (Player + Team option)
J.T. Snow
John Olerud
Roberto Petagine
Dave Hansen
Brad Fullmer
Julio Franco
Tim Salmon
Doug Mientkiewicz (Vesting Option)
Kevin Millar
Paul Konerko
Dmitri Young (Team Option)
Scott Hatteberg (Team Option)
Eduardo Perez
Robert Fick
Greg Colbrunn
Mark Sweeney
Tino Martinez (Team Option)
Ruben Sierra
Daryle Ward
Travis Lee
Olmedo Saenz
Erubiel Durazo
Brian Buchanan

Konerko's the biggest name on there, and the rest are mostly either platoon guys or washed-up vets/the walking dead (such as Tim Salmon).

Names of interest:

Frank Thomas: Can he stay healthy? Is his 1B defense passable/at all better than Ortiz's?
Dmitri Young: I'd imagine Detroit will pick up his option if it's not too expensive. Unfortunately, I can't find any info on that option anywhere online.
Travis Lee: Mentioned earlier (was it Rudy?), he's got a good glove and a decent enough bat. Can't hit lefties at all though...I question as to just how much of an upgrade he'd be over even Millar.
Erubiel Durazo: Struggled this year because of injury, but did put up a 900+ OPS last year.

Nothing too particularly appealing on that list, I'd say. I'd also have to think that an Adam Dunn trade is somewhat unrealistic, if only because not only is the cost in prospects sure to be high, but any move for Dunn would have to correspond with trading Manny so as to not to get bogged down in contract hell. I honestly think that that's a very difficult situation to manage, and as such don't see Dunn putting on a Sox uniform anytime soon.

As to other suggestions...Chad Tracy strikes me as Shea Hillenbrand, Pt. II. Not that that's a bad thing at all, but I'd have to figure that Arizona's price will be a bit high for him, as it doesn't appear that Jackson or Quentin are ready just yet. Nady's likely to stick in San Diego, IMO. From what I understand, Wilkerson is a target to be moved in DC. He'd be an interesting pickup for sure...most people forget that he's playing through a whole host of injuries right now (shoulder, leg, forearm) and, as shown, that RFK kills power numbers. He does seem to have a rather large reverse split, though. That may be a fluke, as it's never been that strong, but who knows. I don't see Nick Johnson getting moved though.

Lyle Overbay intrigues me a lot. The Brewers may be willing to give him up for not too much now that they have Prince Fielder coming up.

[NYCSox]

I'm surpised no one has mentioned Ryan Howard yet. I can't see it happening without the Sox completely overwhelming the Phils. So I guess I'm raising it in order to pretty much dismiss it.

the rest are mostly either platoon guys or washed-up vets/the walking dead

Perez and Saenz are intriguing as lefty mashers with a 997 and 953 OPS, respectively, against LHP. You know RJ is sick of seeing Perez.

Edited by NYCSox, 05 September 2005 - 08:23 PM.

[PedroKsBambino]

Giles' range in right is much, much worse than Nixon's. Bradley's not a free agent, and I just can't seem to believe that DePo would trade a centerfielder who can put up an .800 OPS in Chavez Ravine for the price of likely $4m next year.

I disagree wbout Giles range. Trot Nixon today is not the same guy he was in 2002; though, he's been better this year than 2003-4, I think. Looking at the last three years data, Giles range factor has been better, though it's not a stat I love. Giles also did better than Nixon overall and in range in Tango's fan survey.

I have seen Bradley listed as a FA in several places, most notably in Gammons' column on "key free agents" at the beginning of the season. The question is whether Bradley's rookie year, 2000, where he appeared in 42 games and had 154 ABs, will give him a year of service time. Regardless, I don't want him on the Red Sox.

Durazo is an interesting bat, but he's an awful lot like Ortiz---he really can't field at all and he's an injury risk in the field every day.

[PedroSpecialK]

I disagree wbout Giles range.  Trot Nixon today is not the same guy he was in 2002; though, he's been better this year than 2003-4, I think.  Looking at the last three years data, Giles range factor has been better, though it's not a stat I love.  Giles also did better than Nixon overall and in range in Tango's fan survey.

Of course his range factor will be better when he plays in the biggest rightfield in the game. I personally hate range factor as a stat. In most of the ratings I've seen, Giles has been among the worst rightfielders in the game for a while - Nixon has been slightly below average.

I have seen Bradley listed as a FA in several places, most notably in Gammons' column on "key free agents" at the beginning of the season.  The question is whether Bradley's rookie year, 2000, where he appeared in 42 games and had 154 ABs, will give him a year of service time.  Regardless, I don't want him on the Red Sox.

Agreed, I don't want him on this team.

Durazo is an interesting bat, but he's an awful lot like Ortiz---he really can't field at all and he's an injury risk in the field every day.

I agree, I think it'd be tough to have them split time at first if only because they both are injury prone in the field.

[Eric Van]

Dmitri Young: I'd imagine Detroit will pick up his option if it's not too expensive. Unfortunately, I can't find any info on that option anywhere online.

$8 million guarentee that vests in another 10 PA.

[PedroKsBambino]

Ugly contract for the non-2003 version of Dmitri Young.

Aubrey Huff and Sean Casey should be mentioned as well as veterans who may be available for cost/team overload-at-position issues.

Edited by PedroKsBambino, 05 September 2005 - 09:24 PM.

[Randy Kutchers Mullet]

I agree, I think it'd be tough to have them split time at first if only because they both are injury prone in the field.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is Ortiz really injury prone in the field? Yes, he had some issues with the Twins, but I don't think he's really all that injury prone. Plenty of players his size play 1B and stay healthy.

[TheYellowDart5]

Thanks Eric. So much for Young then. Bad deal for the Tigers, though.

As for Bradley, according to Rotoworld he's arbitration-eligible this year. Word is that DePo and the Dodgers don't want him back though.

Gotta agree though, the thought of Milton Bradley interacting with the Boston media and the fans, while hilarious, would also be a year-long nightmare. I'll pass.

[smastroyin]

I ran through this a while ago and got kind of ignored and the thread went into a huge tangent about Conor Jackson instead of discussing the other 7 options I mentioned.

I'm staying on the Ryan Shealy bandwagon. I think he's a FO favorite already, though, since they've tried twice to get him (once for Kim, once as part of the Shoppach/Bigbie deal). Shealy's stock has probably gone a little bit up since the time of the failed trade however I would think that the basic root of Shoppach and Alvarez could get a deal done. Shealy is a RHH which could be a bit of a problem as the lineup should be more RHH next year (assuming Mueller goes, we are left with Ortiz and Nixon as LHH and Tek as a SH)

First base seems like a place where the Sox coud get young and somewhat cheap this offseason. Other guys on this list would be:

Adrian Gonzalez, Rangers. Former overall first pick of the draft. Hasn't exhibited as much power as the scouts were hoping he would project into. Decent batting eye, still pretty young. Won't be taking Teixeira's position. Not sure what the cost would be.

Jason Stokes, Marlins. Apparently, the Marlins hate the Sox, but they have Carlos Delgado and Stokes is an unlikely candidate to switch positions. Probably my second choice behind Shealy in terms of availabilty combined with potential. Of course, I wanted the Sox to draft and sign him back in 2000 and they went with Dumatrait instead, so what do I know?

Ryan Howard, Phillies. I really think his stock has risen too high at this point. Swing recalls David Ortiz, and I mean that in a good way. Unfortunately, some might say his defense does also. Kind of a weird situation he is in where he is likely a better player than the guy in front of him at this point. but said guy has a huge contract. I don't think the Phillies are all that dumb, and may just ship Thome off somewhere while absorbing a huge chunk of his salary. So really I think he's unavailable, but I may be overestimating the Phillies.

In the other category known as the Move Trot to First Agendists (of which I could be a member as I think it would help Trot a lot), one possible replacement in RF is Lance Berkman (unless he was already signed by the Astros). Of course, Berkman falls into the Stokes/Nady/Teixeira/Jackson category of guys I wish the Sox had gone ahead and drafted. In his case, though, indications were that Berkman was the guy the Sox wanted, just the Astros had an earlier pick.

edit: In the secondary category of guys to pick up and throw in Pawtucket to see if they put it together, the list is headed by Carlos Pena.

Edited by smastroyin, 05 September 2005 - 11:00 PM.

[PedroSpecialK]

Is Ortiz really injury prone in the field? Yes, he had some issues with the Twins, but I don't think he's really all that injury prone. Plenty of players his size play 1B and stay healthy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't forget, though, that in the 2004 season when he played first base periodically, he had some trouble with his knee. I think this is a conscious decision being made by either (or both) Francona and/or the FO to prolong his period of dominance at the plate as opposed to weaken himself playing defense. He is, likely, much more injury prone in the field than Ramirez.

[jtn46]

Is there any reason to believe Choi will learn to hit LHP? Does he have good opposite field power? Seems like a solid player that teams keep giving up on and his approach would be nurtured here, sees a lot of pitches, walks a decent amount and obviously has nice power (and he homered 3 times off Brad Radke in the same game!). If he's just going to remain a platoon player though, I'm not sure it's worth going after because I think we're seeing the flaws in having to carry so many 1B. Would DePo want a lot for him? More throwing a name out than being nuts over this guy, but hadn't seen him mentioned.

[dolomite133]

No love for Kotchman, eh? Is it that nobody thinks he will pan out, he is the wrong type of hitter for Fenway, or that the Angels wouldn't let him go?

I don't think the Marlins deal their number one prospect Stokes -- someone I have heard is among the best prospects in baseball -- simply because they have Delgado. If it comes down to it Delgado is trade bait.

Edited by dolomite133, 06 September 2005 - 08:53 AM.

[sfip]

Howard is arguably as unavailable from the Phillies as Hanley Ramirez is from the Red Sox, if not more. Thome's condition is too questionable for them to want to get rid of Howard, and the Phillies thrive on keeping cheap homegrown players unless for some reason a player like Marlon Byrd is on their sh*t list, which Howard isn't.

[Randy Kutchers Mullet]

No love for Kotchman, eh? Is it that nobody thinks he will pan out, he is the wrong type of hitter for Fenway, or that the Angels wouldn't let him go?

I don't think the Marlins deal their number one prospect Stokes -- someone I have heard is among the best prospects in baseball -- simply because they have Delgado. If it comes down to it Delgado is trade bait.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I just don't get why the Angels would deal Kotchman. He can DH for now, splitting time with Erstad at 1b. With Finley and Anderson both fragile and rapidly deteriorating, there's also a chance Erstad moves back to the OF and Kotchman is the everyday 1b.

So I just don't think it's terribly reasonable to think that the Angels would deal Kotchman. He's 22 and is basically already playing everyday against RHP.

[smastroyin]

It's easy to say that guys like Thome and Delgado are the guys that the teams will trade, however it is harder in practice. I don't think that Howard is available which I already stated, however it is unlikely the Phillies will just be able to move Thome. Really Thome just proves the risk of signing an aging guy with somewhat problematic injury futures into the NL.

Delgado has three years and $39 MM left on his contract with the Marlins. Jason Stokes will be out of options after next year, if I've accounted correctly. (To avoid the Rule 5 draft, he would have been added to the 40 man roster in the 2003/4 offseason, and so used options in each of the last two years) Perhaps the Marlins can deal Delgado with two years remaining on his deal, but it will be difficult. I would think that if the Sox wanted to float an Anibal Sanchez, they could pry Stokes. Bear in mind that I'm not saying the guys I suggested would be cheap, just that they were out there and available.

I don't understand how you could poo-poo Stokes, who is blocked pretty well by a high paid established player who is still performing, and be on the Kotchman bandwagon. Kotchman has already had big leauge success and is better than Erstad, whose contract is up after next year. I suppose there is a scenario where the Angels keep Erstad at 1B and also put Tim Salmon at DH and don't use Kotchman, but Stoneman and Scioscia don't seem that muddle-headed. I would love Kotchman if he could be had.

I guess the basic point is that you can make all kinds of arguments for why any guy on the list wouldn't be traded.

Steve

Edited by smastroyin, 06 September 2005 - 09:25 AM.

[xjack]

Is there any reason to believe Choi will learn to hit LHP?

I like Choi a lot. Problem is, DePodesta probably values him highly too. In fact, Choi's inconsistent playing time is one of many reasons he's likely to fire his manager in the offseason.

If I were to bet on one guy to follow the Derrek Lee career path, Choi would be it. His xBA this year is .290. He's striking out less frequently. His defense is above average. Plus, he'll be 27 next year -- the perfect age for a breakout. It's just too bad Jim Bowden (or someone like him) isn't the Dodgers GM.

[smastroyin]

Two more names, probably cost prohibitive:

Ryan Garko and Mike Aubrey, both in Cleveland's organization. Garko is a catcher but is blocked by Victor Martinez and has a not quite so good defensive rep. Therefore he has been taking reps at 1B. He has a lot more value to a team that thinks he can catch, though.

Aubrey hit a road bump in AA last year, especially given his age. His numbers this year seemed better the last time I looked.

Unfortunately due to the idiotic nature of the way minor league statistics are kept online, I don't have either of these guys current stats.

[Randy Kutchers Mullet]

Aubrey is at .283/.336/.462 in AA.

[Eddie Jurak]

Kotchman has already had big leauge success and is better than Erstad, whose contract is up after next year.  I suppose there is a scenario where the Angels keep Erstad at 1B and also put Tim Salmon at DH and don't use Kotchman, but Stoneman and Scioscia don't seem that muddle-headed.  I would love Kotchman if he could be had.

Hey, maybe we can get Erstad. He should be almost as good as Millar was this year, and better with the glove.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Hideki Matsui is someone the Sox will sniff around, if only to drive the price up. But I can't see him getting away from NYC---they'll bid up into the stratosphere if need be, I believe.

I'm pretty sure that the Yankees have to re-sign Matsui by a very early date; he has a provision in his contract where he can't be offered arbitration. My guess is that he quickly resigns with the Yankees. If not, of course, I think the Sox would love to get him- for on the field and off the field reasons. Can't imagine the Yanks would ever let him go due to their Japanese deals, but who knows.

I'll throw out a few names (haven't read the whole thread, so not sure if these have been mentioned)

-Jeff Kent (prior target of the Sox, '06 is last year of deal ($9M), may have worn out welcome in LA)

-Erubiel Durazo (likely non-tender, injury prone this year, stat head fave)

-Travis Lee (good defense, but a Kevin Millar / doug Mientkiewicz type offensive player, having somewhat of a resurgence this year)

-Ryan Shealy

-Adrian Gonzalez

[dolomite133]

The Indians might make a good trade partner, since the have Broussard and Hafner available to play 1B, if I remember correctly. They would probably be willing to give up one of those prospects. Question is who do we trade away?

I don't understand how you could poo-poo Stokes, who is blocked pretty well by a high paid established player who is still performing, and be on the Kotchman bandwagon. Kotchman has already had big leauge success and is better than Erstad, whose contract is up after next year. I suppose there is a scenario where the Angels keep Erstad at 1B and also put Tim Salmon at DH and don't use Kotchman, but Stoneman and Scioscia don't seem that muddle-headed. I would love Kotchman if he could be had.

I understand Stokes is blocked by Delgado, but all indications are he will be a very good player. IMO the only way the Sox get him is to trade a pitching prospect such as Papelbon, Jon Lester or Anibal Sanchez. Is it worth it?

[russells]

Everyone talks about how teams should look for an AAAA guy who mashes as a cheap plugin for first base. Here's an older AAAA guy who will turn 30 next year. He's in the Marlins system (playing 1B, 3B and LF) and has done well the last two years in AAA.

Here are his AAA numbers:

YR G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K HBP IBB SH SF DP AVG OBP SLG OPS
2004 108 403 96 131 33 7 30 86 12 3 46 85 10 0 0 9 7 .325 .400 .665 1065
2005 98 350 80 126 21 1 24 72 11 1 57 59 ? ? ? ? ? .360 .459 .631 1090

In 2004, he played 33 games in AA at Carolina and hit: .342/.426/.684. His AAA numbers came from playing in Albuquerque in the PCL which is a hitter league. Nonetheless, he led the PCL this year in OBP, 2nd in AVG, and 2nd in SLG. He's out hit Connor Jackson, Prince Fielder and Ryan Sheely this year in the PCL. Granted, he's much older than them. He has a good BB rate and can swipe the occasional base.

He did miss the full 2003 season. I'm not sure why. He's currently up with the Marlins and has become a PH for them.

His name is Joe Dillon. Can he outhit Roberto Petagine, Kevin Millar, and John Olerud? Will the Marlins deal him? Will the Marlins deal with Theo? All good questions.

Sources: Pre-2005 info from Baseball Cube. 2005 info from milb.com

Edited by russells, 06 September 2005 - 04:19 PM.

[TheRooster]

I wonder if Russell Branyan might be worth a look? Everyday 1B might be a stretch, but he has played there every now and then. His injury history is worrisome but his recent splits vs. RHP are encouraging and we all know about Fenway and lefties. In some ways (yes I know he hasn't had the same level of success), he reminds me of Tony the Tiger (Clark) and while the FO was off by a year or two, clearly there was/is something left in him.

Edited by TheRooster, 06 September 2005 - 04:03 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The Sox are rumored to be after Branyan nearly every year, it seems.

[Randy Kutchers Mullet]

I wonder if Russell Branyan might be worth a look?  Everyday 1B might be a stretch, but he has played there every now and then.  His injury history is worrisome but his recent splits vs. RHP are encouraging and we all know about Fenway and lefties.  In some ways (yes I know he hasn't had the same level of success), he reminds me of Tony the Tiger (Clark) and while the FO was off by a year or two, clearly there was/is something left in him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My gut feeling is that Branyan is a big part of Melvin's plan in Milwaukee. He's a perfect platoon 3B. With Wes Helms being a FA (I think), there's a chance that Branyan might get a shot at everyday 3B.

[CaptainLaddie]

One guy I've always had an eye on is Graham Koonce. Graham was in the A's system for a while and got some at-bats there in the bigs - only 8 at-bats, but he's huge - 6'4', 230 pounds.

He's now in the Pittsburgh system - this season, he hit 268 in 422 AB, with a 358 OBP and a 488 SLG. He's got some power - last year he hit 274/440/542 with 34 home runs and drew 98 walks. I think now that he's gone into the Pirates system they've asked him to be more aggressive, which is why his walks have gone down from their career norms this year (only 57 this season) - but he's obviously got an eye considering his career minor league OBP of .396. He is also 30 years old, so this could be like another Roberto Petagine situation - he's also only developed power since 1999, which could explain why he wasn't a real prospect until 2000, by which he was too old to be considered a real prospect.

Koonce can rake - there's no doubt about it (career minor league OPS of 843, but in the last 5 seasons he's had OPS of 932, 923, 927, 945, and an 811 last year). I can't find his splits anywhere, though.

[PedroKsBambino]

Theo was asked about Koonce in the first chat he did on SoSH. Not sure if it's still available on the old site or not---it was pre-2003 season IIRC.

[Todd Benzinger]

Unless--and maybe even if--Shealy falls into our lap in the offseason, what about resigning Billy Mueller for 3B, and using Youks and Peta at 1B? Youks should also play once a week at 3B.

I know it's not all that original or anything, but if you scour AAA for neglected mashers, you'll have a helluva time coming up with guys who beat Youks and Pet's numbers from this year... And they are a L/R combo.

Eric, while you ball me out for violating the ground rules, I'd like to know if Pet's platoon splits in the ML have been projected by the FO? Or if his splits in Japan/ this year's AAA can be shared with us SoSHers?

[Paradigm]

Why the complete lack of regard for Paul Konerko? Is he presumed to return to the White Sox? If the team has to choose between re-signing Damon or signing Konerko, it's tough.

I know they play different positions, but...

.324/.370/.454/.824 (Damon)
14 SB (1 CS)

.280/.369/.534/.903 (Konerko)
35 HR's

Konerko's OBP is .001 lower than Damon's, so ignoring the .050 shift in batting average (which we can safely regard less than the OBP stat) their numbers are surprisingly similar)

In this instance, I think the question becomes where can we sign a more affordable replacement: 1B or CF, because it's unlikely that we're signing both

If we sign Konerko, we need a replacement at CF (haven't looked at the FA market yet). If we sign Damon, we might have a few in-house options at 1B (Petagine, Youkilis).

It's a tough debate.

[Worst Trade Evah]

Well, I guess it won't be Ian Bladergroen, who just chunked out a .668 OPS in A ball. Maybe it was just the wrist.

[Todd Benzinger]

Why the complete lack of regard for Paul Konerko?  Is he presumed to return to the White Sox?  If the team has to choose between re-signing Damon or signing Konerko, it's tough.

I know they play different positions, but...

.324/.370/.454/.824 (Damon)
14 SB (1 CS)

.280/.369/.534/.903 (Konerko)
35 HR's

Konerko's OBP is .001 lower than Damon's, so ignoring the .050 shift in batting average (which we can safely regard less than the OBP stat) their numbers are surprisingly similar)

In this instance, I think the question becomes where can we sign a more affordable replacement: 1B or CF, because it's unlikely that we're signing both

If we sign Konerko, we need a replacement at CF (haven't looked at the FA market yet).  If we sign Damon, we might have a few in-house options at 1B (Petagine, Youkilis).

It's a tough debate.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think that's tough. CF defense is far more important than 1B. Good hitting 1Bs are much easier to find than good-hitting Cfs. Furthermore, while Konerko has been very good for the last year and a half, he's also had long stretches of being awful. And he's just not good enough to be worth the money he's likely to get. IOW, it's actually a net downgrade to replace your CF's OPS with a 1B who puts up the same numbers.

Edited by Todd Benzinger, 07 September 2005 - 10:17 AM.

[Todd Benzinger]

Proabably not a great idea given that he's been hurt for a year and a half, but if he comes back, a Brad Fullmer/Eduardo Perez platoon could be pretty productive and very cheap. What's his status? Is he maybe an ST invite possibility?

Of course, we'd all be posting constantly about how the D is better when Ortiz plays first.

EDIT: another problem is that Fullmer has a terrible three year split at Fenway. Could be meaningless, but not encouraging.

Edited by Todd Benzinger, 07 September 2005 - 01:08 PM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Someone else on this thread mentioned Adrian Gonzalez.

He's 23 years old, and has put up a .765 OPS this year in Texas (27 games). Not spectacular, and the OBP is a bit troubling (.291), but he's young and he's blocked by Teixeira.

Last year he put up .304/.364/.457/821 in AAA at Oklahoma. 12 HRs; not great, but power often develops later in younger hitters and Gonzalez is still quite young.

His other minor league OPSs are OK:

870 at Single A Kane County as a 19 year old
778 at AA Portland as a 20 year old
Split time between AA and AAA as a 21 year old, posting OPSs of 777 with Florida's AA team, 719 with Texas' AA team, and then struggling upon a promotion to AAA at 574.

I got these stats from The Baseball Cube.

It appears to me he's expendable by the Rangers because he's blocked at 1B and doesn't yet have the power to play DH. Unless they want to move Teixeira to DH now (can't see them doing that at such a young age), I'd imagine they'd listen to offers for Gonzalez.

[rmurph3]

Taking the approach that a relatively low-cost platoon option is preferable if available, because it would free up resources for other needs (CF, etc):

I'll nominate Calvin Pickering. We know him from 50 AB with the Sox in 2001. Seems like he's been around forever, but next year is just his age 29 season. KC "rediscovered" him last year and he acquitted himself decently (838 OPS in 122 AB w/KC in 2004, a healthier 978 vRHP), and handed him a starting job this year. That "commitment" lasted all of 27 ABs this April. At that point he was sent down to Triple-A, where he's put up a 912 OPS.

Pros:

- cheap (salary wise)
- cheap (completely unappreciated by his current organization)
- has crushed Triple-A pitching last two years, OPS of 1173 in 2004 and 912 this yr.
- LH hitter, hit significantly better vRHers in KC stint last year.
- is at good age for power peak


Cons:

- haven't found much info about his defense, but at a listed 6'5, 295, there's probably some concern there. Similarly, he'd be more appealing if he could be an emergency OF, but that's not likely either. This is more of an Ortiz-wannabe than anything else.
- (*)wonder if there's an attitude/off-the-field problem here, just based on his nomadic career and long record of not being given opportunities even when they appear warranted. Perhaps the FO has some insight in this area dating back to his 2001 stint here.

If you could pair this guy with an RH'ed version of Olerud/Mientky (duh, McCarty), you'd be on to something. Alternatively, pair him with someone who can platoon with him and fill another role (I'd love to see a Matt Lecroy in that role, platooning at 1B and doubling as 3rd C, freeing up more aggressive use of 'Belli off the bench). Don't have time to profile Lecroy right now, but he's appealing in his own right.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

I think the Red Sox, going forward, are going to need to look to seriously upgrade at one or two positions. All these being equal, I would prefer it not be at 1B because that creates a logjam of players that can't be moved around, but it has to be somewhere. With the rapid aging of the team, they need to be prepared for the inevitable declines of Manny, Nixon, Varitek, and Ortiz. Damon, too, if he stays. The declines could be slow, or they could be sudden, but the offense is almost surely going to get worse from here unless we fortify the team with a star player somewhere. The only available positions are 1B, 2B, and 3B. CF is available, but we are not going to upgrade there--we're either keeping Damon, or we are replacing him with a worse player.

The other option is to assume a worse offense and work on allowing less runs. Finding pitchers is a crap shoot, as we have discovered.

[rice not rose]

I would make a case for Olmedo Saenz for the following reasons:

1) Contract situation - He'll be coming off a $650k contract with the Dodgers and doesn't seem to be in too much favor over there, despite having done fairly well coming off the bench for them. Signing him at less than $1M would enable the Bosox to better apply their monies elsewhere. Plus if they were to do something with some options, they could time his contract to end when they are finally free of Manny's contract and would probably need to have as many options available to them as possible.

2) Hitting - He's got some very good numbers this year (although I don't know how to factor in the fact that he's in a contract year). This year, he's hitting right handers better than left (.298/.353/.485 vs .276/.351/.602 ... more power against lefties but with a lower average), but that hasn't always been the case. As a matter of fact, it's decidedly different from the 3 prior years, when he hit .328/.397/.602 against lefties vs. .230/.313/.374 against righties with almost identical at-bat totals.

His stats this year have definitely been hurt at home - he's hitting .320 on the road vs. .252 at Chavez Ravine. I think the other thing that would help him is dropping him down in the order - he hasn't done that well when hitting in the heart of the lineup, as the Dodgers have had him do. But when he's been dropped down to 6th, he's been hitting at a .414/.435/.810 clip (small statistical sample - only 58 AB's, but when you look at previous years, he's historically hit much better on average when he's hitting 6th.) I could see him in an alternating left/right batting order from 3rd to 7th of: Ortiz, Manny, Tek (switch hitting), Saenz, and Trot, which would reduce an opposing manager's use of relief pitchers, too.

He's done dramatically better in "clutch" situations this year ... the difference from the prior three years is staggering ... so one would have to understand what's accounted for the vast improvements demonstrated by:

RISP ("P3Ys" = "Prior 3 Years")
2005: 81 AB's, .358/.413/.716, 6HR, 49 RBI's
P3Ys: 61 AB's, .213/.303/.508, 5HR, 29 RBI's

RISP, 2 Out:
2005: 40AB's, .375/.444/.850, 5 HR, 25 RBI's
P3Ys: 34 AB's, .147/.237/.294, 1 HR, 9 RBI's

If those differences are because of an adjustment the Dodgers have helped him make, then I think he'd be great in the lineup - but if it's just a "career year" thing, then pass him by!!!!

3) Fielding. He's definitely not an Olderdude, but he's better then Millar! YTD defensive stats (found at Hardball Times - through 8/31/05 have him at 0.6 Fielding Win Shares and a WSAB of 7, compared to Millar at 1.6 and -0-, respectively ... and his WSP is .834 vs. Millar at .348!

You can compare those numbers to others that have been talked about in this thread:

(and if someone can give me a hand with setting up a spreadsheet ... which I don't know how to do in this form field ... I can make this more readable so I don't get people upset with me for readability!)
Konerko:
WSAB: 9; Fielding WS: 2.5; WSP: .664
Shelton:
WSAB: 5; Fielding WS: 0.6; WSP: .684
Overbay:
WSAB: 5; Fielding WS: 1.8; WSP: .515
Sean Casey:
WSAB: 5; Fielding WS: 1.5; WSP: .516

His Zone Rating is 8.50 ... Zone Ratings from 8.60 to 8.40 include such names as: Pujols, Aubrey Huff, Adam Dunn, Konerko, Kotchman and ... our own Kevin Millar!
(Choi's is 8.38; Delgado is 8.33;)

I'm not really good at interpreting the defensive stats - what I understand is that three win shares = 1 win. If that's the case, then the 1st baseman with the best fielding WS rating (Yankees 1Bman whose name I can't spell at 2.7) won't generate 1 more win because of his fielding than Saenz will! Someone please give me a hand and do a better analysis of the defensive numbers than I can.

That's it - comments, anyone?

(edit: to remove hafner from the list of comparative fielding stats and to add Zone Rating stats)

Edited by rice not rose, 07 September 2005 - 05:42 PM.

[Todd Benzinger]

I know Pick is someone EV has had his eye on for a while... But you gotta think that this season is a disappointment. Again, he's not matching Youk or Pet's ml numbers, and he's in the PCL, and he's a defensive liability.

Of course, if he is available to the Sox and will sign a ml contract, he'd be great to throw into the ST mix and then stash in PAW. But I don't see how he's an upgrade over in-house options, except as depth.