2006 Rockies hitters at home: .825; OPS away: .724; OPS difference: .101
2006 Opponent hitters in Col: .803; OPS at home: .765; OPS difference .038
2005 Rockies hitters at home: .826 OPS away: .658 OPS; difference: .168
2005 Opponent hitters in Col: .822 OPS at home: .815 OPS; difference .007
2004 Rockies hitters at home: .881; OPS away: .718; difference: .163
2004 Opponent hitters in Col: .888; OPS at home: .793; difference: .095
2003 Rockies hitters at home: .875; OPS away: .704; difference: .171
2003 Opponent hitters in Col: .837; OPS at home: .820; difference: .017
2002 Rockies hitters at home: .871; OPS away: .646; difference: .125
2002 Opponent hitters in Col: .849; OPS at home: .780; difference: .069
Every year, Rockies hitters have shown a significantly greater Coors effect than their opponents. Given that each of these stats reflects thousands of plate appearances, this looks like a pretty significant result to me. Overall, Rockies hitters have out-produced their opponents at home in every 4 of the past 5 seasons, but have been outhit on the road every time. As a result, they are actually 31 games above .500 at home over the past 5 years - but 125 below .500 on the road, a difference of 156 games (by comparison, the Red Sox, who I typically think of as a much stronger team at home are 99 above at home, 25 above on the road - a difference of 74, or less than half the Rockies).
I could be wrong, but I don't think this is just a distortion of the beneficial effect of Coors. There might be some of that - getting used to the lower degree of movement in the Colorado atmosphere - but I don't think the impact would be this severe unless there was also some distorting effect pulling the production of Rockies hitters down when they play on the road. It's hard for me to believe that the 2003 Rockies offense had a true ability of .658; that would make them the worst offensive team in a long time, considerably worse than say the Pirates, who finished 2006 with a MLB worst team OPS of .723. It also makes intuitive sense to me that it would be much harder to adjust to suddenly seeing pitchers with more movement on their pitches when they go down to sea level than to adjust to suddenly having less movement on pitches when you play in Colorado.
If I'm right about that, the Rockies are screwed as long as they remain in that ballpark. If they want to compete, they've got to replace it with a dome stadium with controlled atmospheric conditions. I hate domes, but otherwise, they are playing at a significant disadvantage.
Edited by satyadaimoku, 27 February 2007 - 09:32 PM.