46 replies to this topic

[TheIlluminati]

I wanted to take a look at Pedroia's future as a Red Sox player. His potential, his strength, weaknesses, and how everyone thinks he will work out.

Here are his college numbers thanks to SoSHwiki

Table

Year	Team Name	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2002	Arizona State	58	236	51	82	13	2	1	45	5	24	19	0.347	0.417	0.432	0.849
2003	Arizona State	68	297	83	120	34	3	4	52	3	36	13	0.404	0.472	0.579	0.105
2004	Arizona State	59	244	78	96	24	1	9	49	9	48	15	0.393	0.502	0.611	0.111

51-game stint at AAA in 2005 (.255/.356/.382)
2006 AAA Stats

Table

Team	League	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
Pawtucket Red Sox	AAA	111	423	55	129	30	3	5	50	180	48	27	1	4	0.38	0.43	0.31

2006 in the Majors .191/.258/.303

I'd like to apologize beforehand about my exact stat knowledge. I'm writing from work and almost every site is blocked. If anyone knows a stat sports site that won't be blocked give me a holler.

I'm excited at how often Pedroia puts the bat on the ball. Going forward it will be his best asset as a major league bat. His most recent AAA ratio of Xtra Base Hits/BB/SO was 38/48/27 or 1.4/1.78/1. And in College he had 91/108/47. Plain and simple Pedroia doesn't strike out. At every level he has ever been at he has had more Xtra base hits and BB then SO. Those ratio's are close to what players like David Wright and Pujols had before the majors. Its rare to see a player hurt you as little as Pedroia does. He'll make things happen most every plate appearance.

I largely look past what happened in 2006 for Pedroia because he was coming off shoulder surgery and had to adjust to new surroundings.

For 2007 Pedroia looks to be much better. Here are some of the projections he's getting for next year...

Table

Table
Pedroia	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	R	RBI
RS mle	423	303	370	426	795	5	51	46
ZiPS	482	274	347	394	741	7	70	52
James	619	284	355	418	774	10	79	72
Shandler	477	285	351	415	766	8	28	35
CHONE	495	282	355	413	767	8	63	52
MARCEL	222	257	328	414	742	7	27	28
PECOTA	491	294	360	431	791	9	71	60
Average	464	279	349	414	764	8	56	50

Thank you to philly sox fan for that

In my own projections I have Pedroia about the same at...

Table

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	TB	Avg	OBP	SLG
520	80	146	39	3	8	65	10	55	215	0.280	0.353	0.413

Now I based this on his major league numbers, college slightly, projections, and my own opinion after watching him.

I'm in the same thinking as most of the projectors, except I'm a little higher on production. Bill James has Pedroia getting a ton of at bats. I expect he believes Pedroia to bat #1 or #2 in the order.

Pedroia looks to have a lot more RBI and drive in situations on the Sox then the PawSox. With his propensity to put the bat on the ball I expect a lot of RBI's for a bottom of the order bat. He will have a lot of extra base hits and balls in play, enough to give players time to get around the bags. He seems like a perfect bat for a move'em-along/sacrifice hit. Which also gives him a great bat for a #2 hitter. Although I don't think he should be or will this year, with bats like Lugo, Youkilis and Coco. YES Coco will most likely see time at the top again. Pedroia like Loretta, can give Francona a lot of options in the #2 spot and he'll love that. If Pedroia lives up to expectations, he may see some time at the top of the order.

I see Pedroia as definately the best 2B prospect in baseball today. He will be above average offensively.. for a second baseman at least. He is still only 23 and has upside. Scouts say he is strong defensively and his move from SS to 2B only helped him. He looks to have a strong and long future.

Looking further into the future I see Pedroia's numbers approaching his AAA stats. Something similar to PECOTA's averages this year (.294/.360/.431) but a bit higher at .300/.370/.440.

I am a Red Sox fan so I may see a little more light then is actually there. The grass is always greener on your side of the fence. Or at least thats how the cliche should go.

MUCH FURTHER into the future I would say Dustin even has a potential .325/.400/.465. A Bill Mueller type of line. Not saying this is his future, but if the stars aline, maybe. Theres always a lucky year in every players career. With the high percentage he puts the ball in play his average has a very high ceiling. He just needs to find the holes.

And finally if Pedroia ever hopes to be an All-Star 2nd Baseman, it might only be because Red Sox nation votes for him in, in force. In his career in the AL he'll be competeing with the likes of Robinson Cano, Brian Roberts, Iguchi, Howie Kendrick, Ian Kinsler, and Josh Barfield. I doubt we'll be seeing our own Dustin heading to the All-Star break party. The competition at 2nd looks too strong now, and strong far into the future.

[samuelLsamson]

I see Pedroia as definately the best 2B prospect in baseball today. He will be above average offensively.. for a second baseman at least. He is still only 23 and has upside. Scouts say he is strong defensively and his move from SS to 2B only helped him. He looks to have a strong and long future.

Well I'd say that's true, off-hand I can only think of Alberto Callaspo who is anywhere close. That said, many guys who end up playing 2B in the Majors weren't considered 2Bs in their prospect days - they're often short stops who either don't quite make the grade or whose paths are blocked by a star SS, so move to second and end up making their careers there. Because of that, it's not quite as weighty a statement as being the best rookie CF or LHP.

Your analysis was interesting, and I don't take great issue with anything - you may have a slightly rosier view of Dustin's future than I do, but I think he'll hit for a good average, and hustle and turn some nice double plays and we'll be happy to have him on our roster.

[edit for typo]

Edited by samuelLsamson, 22 February 2007 - 05:31 PM.

[Me Amo Papi]

I see Pedroia as definately the best 2B prospect in baseball today.

Um, are you kidding? Have you heard of Howie Kendrick? What about Josh Barfield? Ian Kinsler? Kelly Johnson? All of these guys look to be more complete players than Dustin.

Pedrioa is a great story because he's such an undersized unsterotypical player, but he is what he is-- a scrappy singles hitter who works the count and plays above average (but by no means spectacular) defense. Take off the Sox-colored glasses here buddy, he's probobly not even a top 5 young 2b.

[ichirob4ichiro]

Um, are you kidding? Have you heard of Howie Kendrick? What about Josh Barfield? Ian Kinsler? Kelly Johnson? All of these guys look to be more complete players than Dustin.

Pedrioa is a great story because he's such an undersized unsterotypical player, but he is what he is-- a scrappy singles hitter who works the count and plays above average (but by no means spectacular) defense. Take off the Sox-colored glasses here buddy, he's probobly not even a top 5 young 2b.

Though I don't agree with the #1 tag, he did say prospect, which is a loosly used term for personal opinion of what their ceiliing is. No way to prove either way who is right except to wait and see, so calm it down a notch. He has much higher than normal potential; lets leave it at that untill the stats come in. i don't think he will be nearly as bad as half the people on here think his is going to be, but lets not go throwing around the #1 tag before he even starts.

[Me Amo Papi]

Sorry if my reply sounded harsh, but I really think that you guys are way over-rating a player whos only real value comes from the fact that he is cheap. Pedrioa is not in the top teir of young second basemen-- his physical skills, as well as his numbers, simply do not approach those of the guys I mentioned. And this is even at a time where 2b is easily the weakest position in baseball. To say that he is "definitely the best second base prospect in baseball today" is the statement that needs to be "calmed down a notch".

[samuelLsamson]

Um, are you kidding? Have you heard of Howie Kendrick? What about Josh Barfield? Ian Kinsler? Kelly Johnson? All of these guys look to be more complete players than Dustin.

In general, 'prospect' means a player who would be eligible for the MLB rookie of the year award - in other words he hasn't exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors.

Kendrick had 267 major league at bats last season, Barfield had 539, Kinsler 423, Johnson 290. None of these players are 'prospects' - so it's not a case of Sox called glasses so much as you not reading what was written. If he'd said "Pedroia is the best young 2B in baseball" then your comments would gain more validity.

[edit for Kendrick's numbers]

Edited by samuelLsamson, 24 February 2007 - 12:13 AM.

[judyb]

Still, he does have a point about expectations for Pedroia being too high. It's not fair to him to expect so much of him. I blame BP.

[Me Amo Papi]

In general, 'prospect' means a player who would be eligible for the MLB rookie of the year award - in other words he hasn't exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors.

I'm not sure this is true. obviously it's an open ended term, but Baseball America, for example, does not follow this standard. If you meant the top rookie second baseman then I guess he could be the best as Pedroia is the only projected ML starting second baseman eligible for ROY, so he'll contribute the most by default.

if you're talking pure ceiling, I think most baseball people would argue that Blake DeWitt of LA, Alexi Casilla of Minny, and Kevin Melillo of Oaklan above Pedroia. A lot of people would but Alberto Callaspo above him too, as he looks the hit for more power than Pedroia.

I don't mean to get too down on the kid, I'm really excited to watch him play and think he's a perfect fit in the 9 hole, but I just think it's unreasonable to expect him to be anything other than a light-hitting MI.

and I do apologize to TheIlluminati, who mentions several of the players I did in the last paragraph of his post. Guess I was so anxious to post I skimmed the last bit... ( Guess thats why I'm a lurker! ) But, I still think my larger point stands: Pedroia is not the best 2b prospect/young player/rookie/whatever in baseball.

[samuelLsamson]

I'm not sure this is true. obviously it's an open ended term, but Baseball America, for example, does not follow this standard.

You sure about that?

"Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2007" (emphasis mine).

Edited by samuelLsamson, 24 February 2007 - 12:36 AM.

[Me Amo Papi]

Hm. They list Kendrick on their list of top 100 prospects, thats the only reason i said that. regardless of the semantics of what a "prospect" is qualified as, the larger point i think stands undisputed.

edit: it was because i was looking on the 2006 page. I'm dumb.

Edited by Me Amo Papi, 24 February 2007 - 01:20 AM.

[RedSox04]

Pedroia should perform like a cross between Marty Barrett and Jody Reed. Is that all-star caliber? No, but he would be a solid performer, and it means that the Sox will not have a hole at 2B, and eventually Pedroia could move up to #2 in the order behind Ellsbury perhaps. (in '08, or '09, of course)

In the league, Cano and Kendrick (he will win batting titles), will hit for higher averages, but won't walk. Barfield has good upside, and Kinsler should be pretty good, too.

[Quintananana]

I gotta say, if Pedroia performs anywhere near Jody Reed's level, I will completely admit I am wrong about the guy. I think most people on here predict him as a a solid 2Bman with above average range on defense and above avg hitting for a 2Bman. Not spectacular, but basically in agreeance with you. I seem to be about the only one who disagrees. My prediction, although I would love to be wrong...

Above average range BUT... too many errors (more than the avg 2Bman) on routine plays/double play balls.

Below average hitting for a 2Bman. Not much below, but I think to hope for him to be avg. would be optimistic.

[RedSox04]

I say Jody Reed, because like Reed, Pedroia hit at every level, although now I recall Reed probably did not fare well at that pitchers' ballpark in New Britain - nobody really did, except Bagwell, without the power. Reed was a SS who was defensively mediocre for the position (as is Pedroia) but was good as a 2B. When Jody would hit .285, take his walks, and bang his doubles off the wall, he was pretty effective. When he dropped down to .260 and lost his ability to hit the wall (1992), he was mediocre and quickly replaced. If Pedroia is the latter version of Reed, then yes, you're correct, and we will need a 2B. I don't think that will be the case for awhile, though

[Quintananana]

I say Jody Reed, because like Reed, Pedroia hit at every level, although now I recall Reed probably did not fare well at that pitchers' ballpark in New Britain - nobody really did, except Bagwell, without the power. Reed was a SS who was defensively mediocre for the position (as is Pedroia) but was good as a 2B. When Jody would hit .285, take his walks, and bang his doubles off the wall, he was pretty effective. When he dropped down to .260 and lost his ability to hit the wall (1992), he was mediocre and quickly replaced. If Pedroia is the latter version of Reed, then yes, you're correct, and we will need a 2B. I don't think that will be the case for awhile, though

Yeah, I tend to remember Reed the way you do, when guys like Boggs, Greenwell, Burks, and Reed pummeled the green monster with doubles. That was a great time to be a Sox fan. No real superstar, 40+ HR guys... No speedsters like Vince Coleman... just a good hitting team. If Pedroia can become that type of hitter, I will be ecstatic. I hope he gets more comfortable defensively, because while he has more range than say... Loretta or someone of that level, I was nervous every time the ball came rolling his way. I would take a 2Bman with average range who makes the routine play and makes them look "routine" over the guy like Nomar who would make incredible throws from deep in the whole that you thought he'd never get to, and then sail a throw into the stands on a ball hit right at him. Sorry if I upset anyone with the Nomar example.

Edited by Quintananana, 24 February 2007 - 11:42 AM.

[judyb]

To be honest, I find it sort of funny how extreme people's expectations of the guy seem to be, both ways, when he seems to be anything but extreme in almost every way. He'll hit better than Pokey Reese and field better than Todd Walker, what more do we really expect from 2B anyway? He'll walk more than Rey Sanchez, K less than Bellhorn, and run faster than Loretta. He'll cause fewer concussions than Damian Jackson and hit more HRs than Alex Cora. Who'd I miss? Oh, yeah, I guess if I had to pick, he'll probably be more like Graffanino than any of the others.

Edited by judyb, 24 February 2007 - 12:22 PM.

[Blessyouboys84]

Ummmmmm, you may want to double check your stats.

His '03 OPS should be 1.051, not .105. His '04 OPS should be 1.113, not .111.

[tmorgan]

Of the young 2b prospects and players (Cano, Kendrick, Kinsler and Barfield), Kinsler is the only other converted SS. Pedroia hits very similarly to Barfield and Kinsler although he does so with more doubles and fewer HR. The idea that he is a 'scrappy singles hitter' is It is ridiculous that I can't spell the word ridiculous for a guy with such a high LD %. I think that he probably has a better defensive upside than any of those guys except for maybe Kinsler becuase he was a natural SS though the minors. I was pretty shocked to see some questions about his defense on something other than his arm. Considering Pedroia has much better numbers through the minors than Jody Reed did, is pretty much the same size (an inch or less shorter, same weight) both are converted SS, I would be surprised if Pedroia doesn't put up 89-90 Reed numbers this year (760ish OPS). If he is going to be an average ML 2b it is because the talent level at 2b is rising rapidly.

[ichirob4ichiro]

You sure about that?

"Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2007" (emphasis mine).

Prospect simply means they haven't played enough in the bigs to be considered a MLB player, and they are ranked based on their "long-term worth (ceiling)."

Nothing about the RoY eligibility other than if they previously played more than the allowed innings/ab's then they are no longer considered a rookie when/if they get called up again.

By this deff. there is no way he can be considered the top 2B prospect, though by defualt he is the best rookie 2B. Thou the term prospects have implications of the RoY, they are not connected. I'm sure you know that of course, but it just sounded wierd.

[Wade Boggs Hair]

Um, are you kidding? Have you heard of Howie Kendrick? What about Josh Barfield? Ian Kinsler? Kelly Johnson? All of these guys look to be more complete players than Dustin.

I'll bite...based on what?

1. Josh Barfield

So valuable that after his age 23 rookie season .280/.319/.423 tour de force the Padres actively shopped him around. PECOTA pegs him at a .267/.317/.423 line next year, without much improvement thereafter, and that's based on playing in Cleveland, not PETCO. Pass.

2. Howie Kendrick

Put up .285/.314/.416 in half a season in 2006. Has yet to draw more than 20 walks in a full season - Kendrick's utter allergy for working the count and taking a free pass makes Jeff Francoeur look like Kevin Youkilis (Howie's 3.27 P/PA in the majors last year ranks 328th among all eligible batters). PECOTA gives Kendrick a .339 OBP next year, and that's before he gets enough MLB experience under his belt for that AVG-driven OBP to drop further. Very good defensively, but IMO his lack of patience makes his ability to hit consistently a big question mark. Don't pencil him in yet...

3. Ian Kinsler

Interesting player; put up .286/.347/.454 in the Launching Pad at Arlington last year, but according to BP cost the Rangers 4 runs at second base. PECOTA gives him .285/.345/.475 next year, with no change through his age 28 season. Especially accounting for Texas' hitter-friendly environment, I think he's fairly comparable to Pedroia offensively - slightly more power but slightly lower OBP - but Pedroia gets the defensive edge. Good player, though.

4. Kelly Johnson

I think we should let him play at least one inning of professional baseball at second base before we consider him a second base prospect. Good player, though, with a pretty steady .290/.380/.490 projection throughout his late 20s. Probably the best offensive player in this group, but he couldn't play a competent left field and is only being converted because the Braves don't have a second baseman and, in their view, a clogged outfield. For all we know, he might make Mark Loretta look like Bill Mazeroski up the middle...let's dub this one "wait and see"

---

I just don't really see how any of these guys are easily better than Pedroia. He's getting a pretty solid .300/.360-.375/.430-.455 line from PECOTA in his club-controlled years with good defense. Optimistic or not, the predictions are what they are for him and everyone else here who has comparable MLB experience.

I'm not saying http://www.sonsofsam...ok/external.png) center right no-repeat; padding-right: 13px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #3366BB; color: #3366BB; cursor:pointer; text-decoration:none;" class="wiki">Dustin Pedroia is necessarily the #1 young second baseman around, but I am saying that it's absurd to just dismiss the possibility that Dustin belongs in your group without offering any kind of argument. I think he fits in with, and stands out from, that group quite well, and I'm glad he's on our team.

Here's hoping he proves PECOTA right this year, as I'm sure we all do

[mb22414]

I'll bite...based on what?


2. Howie Kendrick

Put up .285/.314/.416 in half a season in 2006. Has yet to draw more than 20 walks in a full season - Kendrick's utter allergy for working the count and taking a free pass makes Jeff Francoeur look like Kevin Youkilis (Howie's 3.27 P/PA in the majors last year ranks 328th among all eligible batters). PECOTA gives Kendrick a .339 OBP next year, and that's before he gets enough MLB experience under his belt for that AVG-driven OBP to drop further. Very good defensively, but IMO his lack of patience makes his ability to hit consistently a big question mark. Don't pencil him in yet...


Here's hoping he proves PECOTA right this year, as I'm sure we all do

I like Pedroia a lot, but I wouldn't take him over Kendrick. Patience is great but if you can hit .320, provide good power, and play a great defensive second base then not having it isn't the end of the world. I think Kendrick will be one of the rare players whose high average/low walk rate type skill set won't make him overrated. I think Pedroia is close with Kinsler, and I would take him over Barfield.

[ichirob4ichiro]

I am a big DP advocate, but damn, he looks like he is 13 years old at ST.


"Dustin Pedroia (left) is dwarfed by teammate Wily Mo Pena."

WMP is standing BEHIND him!

[judyb]

I am a big DP advocate, but damn, he looks like he is 13 years old at ST.


"Dustin Pedroia (left) is dwarfed by teammate Wily Mo Pena."

WMP is standing BEHIND him!

Look at it this way, though: if you were walking down the street and bumped into WMP, he'd look like a giant. You probably see guys Pedroia's size all the time.

[ichirob4ichiro]

Look at it this way, though: if you were walking down the street and bumped into WMP, he'd look like a giant. You probably see guys Pedroia's size all the time.

Tito is only 6 feet.... DP must be closer to 5'6'' than 5'9''

[Kyle C.]

Tito is only 6 feet.... DP must be closer to 5'6'' than 5'9''

He looks like he is freaking 15! However it is good to see that he is adding muscle over the off season.

[Wade Boggs Hair]

I like Pedroia a lot, but I wouldn't take him over Kendrick. Patience is great but if you can hit .320, provide good power, and play a great defensive second base then not having it isn't the end of the world. I think Kendrick will be one of the rare players whose high average/low walk rate type skill set won't make him overrated. I think Pedroia is close with Kinsler, and I would take him over Barfield.

This is an alluring fantasy, but my whole argument is that we don't know yet whether or not Kendrick will "hit .320, provide good power, and play a great defensive second base," and I primarily contended that Kendrick's low walk rate and AVG-driven OBP makes it less likely that his batting success will translate into long-term major league success. He has yet to display any desire to work a count and seems completely unwilling or unable to take a walk. He also strikes out a ton - I think you need to give us a good reason why he'll suddenly catch up to major league pitching.

All I'm saying is: don't crown him yet. Pedroia's higher walk rate, willingness to work counts and low strikeout rate makes him a better candidate to improve on his early major league #s; that's why PECOTA likes him, in part.

I'm not arguing that he's necessarily a superior prospect to Kendrick; my argument is simply that Kendrick's approach calls into question that his success in the majors will be axiomatic.

[mb22414]

This is an alluring fantasy, but my whole argument is that we don't know yet whether or not Kendrick will "hit .320, provide good power, and play a great defensive second base," and I primarily contended that Kendrick's low walk rate and AVG-driven OBP makes it less likely that his batting success will translate into long-term major league success. He has yet to display any desire to work a count and seems completely unwilling or unable to take a walk. He also strikes out a ton - I think you need to give us a good reason why he'll suddenly catch up to major league pitching.

All I'm saying is: don't crown him yet. Pedroia's higher walk rate, willingness to work counts and low strikeout rate makes him a better candidate to improve on his early major league #s; that's why PECOTA likes him, in part.

I'm not arguing that he's necessarily a superior prospect to Kendrick; my argument is simply that Kendrick's approach calls into question that his success in the majors will be axiomatic.

Kendrick certainly doesn't strike out a lot. That's part of the reason his averages are so high. Last year his K% was the highest of his career(15.5%), but throughout his minor league career it's been around 10-14% - not too high at all. His averages do seem to be a little BABIP-driven with BABIP's above .400 in 4 minor league stops. But it's obviously not all luck as he continues to do it. I obviously haven't seen much of Kendrick but I'm going to guess he's a line drive machine. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think many consistent .340-.380 minor league hitters (who aren't old for their leagues) completely fail against major league pitching.

By the way, PECOTA like Kendrick A LOT too. My point is just that if I had to choose Kendrick or Pedroia to be my second basemen for the next 5 years, I'd choose Kendrick every time, but I don't think that's a slight to Pedroia.

[TheIlluminati]

Sorry for the confusion,

I meant prospect as samuelLsamson puts it "All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible".

Because even though you can argue other players in the minors will be better then Pedroia later, they arn't as close or as proven to make it in the majors as Pedroia. So Pedroia is less of a toss up. As of right now I would have to say he is the best 2B prospect in baseball according to my definition of prospect.

And as far as being the best 2nd baseman in baseball, no I already disagreed with that. I like what Pedroia will do for the team a lot. I'll like his defense and contact bat, but other 2nd baseman will pile up bigger numbers.

And RedSox04 do you really think Cano will go for batting titles? He impressed everyone last year but in the minors he never hit above .301 . Unless he has another year like last, and gets lucky because no one else hits higher, it seems like he'll only have a solid average not batting title worthy. And am I the only one thinking Cano is a younger darker Freddy Sanchez?

I started this thread because I am excited to see a minor league prospect get the full time job, like I was about Youkilis. Pedroia I'll get to see everyday and root for him. Its fun to watch a batter pile up stats and project his worth far into the future. If Pedroia has a 2-HR game with 8 rbi all of a sudden next year PECOTA is lovin the guy for HR's and RBI. I'm a big fan of watching one of our guys career's blossom... or die out. Either way I'll be watching.

Edited by TheIlluminati, 26 February 2007 - 09:09 AM.

[DavidD]

I just looked up Loretta's 06 stats and compared them to what we project Pedroia to do. They are freakishly similar.

Looking at Dustin's size tho, I'll be shocked if he can hit the ball in the outfield. Looking at his size, I'll be shocked to see if he has a strike zone! I won't be surprised if Terry pulls the Little League manager trick -- to punch hit with your shortest player and tell him to practically sit down in the batters box, never move the bat off your shoulder, and see if the 12 year old can throw a perfect pitch 3 times. Seriously though, Pedroia imagine how many good pitches Pedroia would see if he hit #2? Assume Youkilus is on first with a walk or a single, the pitcher has Ortiz, Manny, and Drew coming up. PLUS he has a 6 inch strike zone to work with. He's going to be getting a lot of fastballs. That would be a perfect situation for a young, average hitter. It might benefit the Sox more to put him there if he'd be seeing better pitches than he would at #9 and then have the more skilled hitter at #9.

Pardon my lack of knowledge for who's hitting 2nd as it is. I'm not positive of the starting lineup and I'd rather be vague than wrong.

[TPetey]

I just looked up Loretta's 06 stats and compared them to what we project Pedroia to do. They are freakishly similar.

Looking at Dustin's size tho, I'll be shocked if he can hit the ball in the outfield.

PECOTA is projecting a line of .294/.360/.431, WARP 5.6 for Pedroia. Compare that to Loretta's 285/.345/.361 with a WARP of 3.1 in '06. Those numbers are similar in that they're each composed of the same set of arabic numerals, but ... otherwise? Not freakishly.

Consider also that Loretta was a -9 FRAA in the field, while Pedroia projects to a +4. And that in his brief cuppacawfee last fall, despite his horrible luck (.188 BABIP), Pedroia managed a higher ratio of extra base hits per plate appearance than Loretta did. So I don't think I'm all that worried about his ability to hit the ball into the outfield.

I have not the smallest regret about letting Mark Loretta sign elsewhere.

[doc]

I just looked up Loretta's 06 stats and compared them to what we project Pedroia to do. They are freakishly similar.

Looking at Dustin's size tho, I'll be shocked if he can hit the ball in the outfield. Looking at his size, I'll be shocked to see if he has a strike zone! I won't be surprised if Terry pulls the Little League manager trick -- to punch hit with your shortest player and tell him to practically sit down in the batters box, never move the bat off your shoulder, and see if the 12 year old can throw a perfect pitch 3 times. Seriously though, Pedroia imagine how many good pitches Pedroia would see if he hit #2? Assume Youkilus is on first with a walk or a single, the pitcher has Ortiz, Manny, and Drew coming up. PLUS he has a 6 inch strike zone to work with. He's going to be getting a lot of fastballs. That would be a perfect situation for a young, average hitter. It might benefit the Sox more to put him there if he'd be seeing better pitches than he would at #9 and then have the more skilled hitter at #9.

Pardon my lack of knowledge for who's hitting 2nd as it is. I'm not positive of the starting lineup and I'd rather be vague than wrong.

We are just used to a generation of giants, alot of the old time players were Pedroia's size, esp the shortstops, remarkably he has doubles power in MiLB, and Tejada is the same height, just 40 lbs heavier.

[mb22414]

I just looked up Loretta's 06 stats and compared them to what we project Pedroia to do. They are freakishly similar.

Looking at Dustin's size tho, I'll be shocked if he can hit the ball in the outfield. Looking at his size, I'll be shocked to see if he has a strike zone! I won't be surprised if Terry pulls the Little League manager trick -- to punch hit with your shortest player and tell him to practically sit down in the batters box, never move the bat off your shoulder, and see if the 12 year old can throw a perfect pitch 3 times. Seriously though, Pedroia imagine how many good pitches Pedroia would see if he hit #2? Assume Youkilus is on first with a walk or a single, the pitcher has Ortiz, Manny, and Drew coming up. PLUS he has a 6 inch strike zone to work with. He's going to be getting a lot of fastballs. That would be a perfect situation for a young, average hitter. It might benefit the Sox more to put him there if he'd be seeing better pitches than he would at #9 and then have the more skilled hitter at #9.

Pardon my lack of knowledge for who's hitting 2nd as it is. I'm not positive of the starting lineup and I'd rather be vague than wrong.

I believe it's Lugo then Youkilis hitting 1st and 2nd, or the other way around. I think Pedroia will be quite a bit better than Loretta, though. There on base skills should be similar, but Pedroia should provide a lot more power. Lorettas ISO last year was 199th of 207 among players with at least 400 PA's. His defense should also be a lot better than Loretta - who provided little range.

Edited by mb22414, 26 February 2007 - 02:21 PM.

[judyb]

Just for sake of comparison, when Mark Loretta was Dustin Pedroia's age, he was compiling what would eventually become a .731 minor league career OPS and hoping to get the call up to AAA. Assuming Pedroia's minor league career is over, he beats Loretta's minor league OPS by .115, at .846, while being younger at every level. Now, of course, that doesn't mean Pedroia will have a better career than Loretta, and Loretta's had some very good seasons, but it just gives you an idea of why some people have higher expectations for Pedroia than Loretta's age 34 season last year.

[ichirob4ichiro]

Just for sake of comparison, when Mark Loretta was Dustin Pedroia's age, he was compiling what would eventually become a .731 minor league career OPS and hoping to get the call up to AAA. Assuming Pedroia's minor league career is over, he beats Loretta's minor league OPS by .115, at .846, while being younger at every level. Now, of course, that doesn't mean Pedroia will have a better career than Loretta, and Loretta's had some very good seasons, but it just gives you an idea of why some people have higher expectations for Pedroia than Loretta's age 34 season last year.

The thing that excites me the most is that with this lineup there are no "easy" innings for the opposing pitcher. Each batter, each inning has a chance to do some damage in a number of ways. Very similar to recent MFY lineups, if Pedroia just improves on Loretta's offense even in the smallest amount (which most think he will) it will be one of the best offenses in recent sox history.

And in the minors, DP had decent power and slg for a man of his size. I wonder if someone with more time can come up with some stats/examples of undersized baseball players who did well in the minors and struggled in the majors. Interesting to see the correlation between body size and success for each of the pro-levels, if anything like that exists.

[Sprowl]

Replacing Gonzalez and Loretta with Lugo and Pedroia should mean more range, more chances, and more errors -- but fewer overall baserunners.

Last year's infield was spectacularly competent but immobile. During the first half we got the competence, so much so that posters waxed poetic about 'the best Red Sox defense ever'. The infield was crisp in turning the double play, and never blew a routine grounder. When Theo traded for Jason Johnson, he argued that Johnson was a ground ball pitcher who would do well in front of our defense. Well, Johnson gave up more line drives than ground balls, and the grounders he did give up were hit so hard that they exposed the infield's lack of range.

Pedroia may prove to be a AAAA hitter, but range in the field will be his greatest strength.

[Boo Ferriss' Ghost]

And RedSox04 do you really think Cano will go for batting titles? He impressed everyone last year but in the minors he never hit above .301 . Unless he has another year like last, and gets lucky because no one else hits higher, it seems like he'll only have a solid average not batting title worthy. And am I the only one thinking Cano is a younger darker Freddy Sanchez?

Yes, you're the only one. Freddy Sanchez is a great utility man with almost no power. Sanchez's IsoP has exceed .100 once in his MLB career, and for his career has averaged .130 or worse. Cano on the other hand has hovered from .140 to .190 in the last three years. Now, if you're saying they are similiar in that neither can take a walk, and are thereby highly BA dependant? Absolutely. However, even if Cano's BA drops down to the .280-.300 range, and I think it will, his power gives him the ability to still be a useful player. If Sanchez's BA plummets as well (and I imagine it will) he is useless because he has no power to balance out the lack of patience.

However, regarding the batting title claim...yeah, there's almost no chance Cano ever competes for a batting title. He strikes out in 10% of his ABs and doesn't hit enough home runs to account for those strike outs. Batting title ain't happening.

[TheIlluminati]

Yes, you're the only one. Freddy Sanchez is a great utility man with almost no power. Sanchez's IsoP has exceed .100 once in his MLB career, and for his career has averaged .130 or worse. Cano on the other hand has hovered from .140 to .190 in the last three years. Now, if you're saying they are similiar in that neither can take a walk, and are thereby highly BA dependant? Absolutely. However, even if Cano's BA drops down to the .280-.300 range, and I think it will, his power gives him the ability to still be a useful player. If Sanchez's BA plummets as well (and I imagine it will) he is useless because he has no power to balance out the lack of patience.

haha yah I did mean all their similarities not thier differences.

I am not privy to Sanchez's minor league numbers now but last year he was at the top of baseball in doubles but hit only 8 homeruns. If he had a bit more of Cano's power they might have been brothers from another mother.

Now I don't wish to draw criticism from people. Its a shallow comparison but still fairly accurate. Like if I called Rosie O'donald a whale. Just because she's not actually a whale doesn't mean at first glance you wouldn't confuse the two.

[doc]

And in the minors, DP had decent power and slg for a man of his size. I wonder if someone with more time can come up with some stats/examples of undersized baseball players who did well in the minors and struggled in the majors. Interesting to see the correlation between body size and success for each of the pro-levels, if anything like that exists.

Define "small" though you have someone like Miggy who is only about 5'9 but runs 215 and has a ton of power, to eckstein. Old time players like Belanger were listed around 6' but only tipped the scales at 165 to 170. And Soriano who lists at 6'1 but only 180 lbs certainly has power.
I've always been curious as to the biggest predictor of power in a batter, the bat speed that one can generate should count for more than raw strength (ie say what you can bench) as F=MV². I'd like to see muscle biopsies of a truly great power hitter, my guess is they'd look more like a world class sprinter than anything else.

So the point of this bizarre little tangent is Pedroria while not big may have enough bat speed to compensate for lack of size because if you can improve bat speed that would have an exponential increase in power.

[samuelLsamson]

Its a shallow comparison but still fairly accurate. Like if I called Rosie O'donald a whale. Just because she's not actually a whale doesn't mean at first glance you wouldn't confuse the two.

I agree Sanchez resembles Cano as a baseballer as much as Rosie O'Donnell resembles a whale as a marine mammal who can stay under for up to 40 minutes without breathing. Good spot!

[RedSox04]

I do not "expect" batting titles for Cano. However he already has competed for a batting title, and is still a young guy who should improve. I can see him developing into a .300 hitter with 15 - 20 home run power who will have a year or two, or three above .320. Usually when that happens, you compete for a batting title.

I do expect that Kendrick will, if he stays healthy, take home a batting title or two one day.

As has been mentioned before, the one thing that can undermine that is his lack of plate discipline. It has not stopped Ichiro though.

The batting average will be high, but the OBA will not be THAT high.

And yes, if Sanchez's average slips, he does not have much other facets of his offense to supplement his avg.

[DavidD]

PECOTA is projecting a line of .294/.360/.431, WARP 5.6 for Pedroia. Compare that to Loretta's 285/.345/.361 with a WARP of 3.1 in '06. Those numbers are similar in that they're each composed of the same set of arabic numerals, but ... otherwise? Not freakishly.

Aye, I was using .279/.349/.414 for Pedroia's projections, which were the average of 6 or 7 projections that's in the original post of this thread. Naturally the more statistical analysis you do the bigger discrepancy there will be between them, but while thinking about it and taking a quick glance at basic stuff, I thought they were pretty similar, at least on the BA and OBP levels.

All stats aside, I definitely think it's better to go with Pedroia. He's cheap, can only get better, and will have virtually better output. Simply put, it makes sense.

[ichirob4ichiro]

I've always been curious as to the biggest predictor of power in a batter, the bat speed that one can generate should count for more than raw strength (ie say what you can bench) as F=MV². I'd like to see muscle biopsies of a truly great power hitter, my guess is they'd look more like a world class sprinter than anything else.

So the point of this bizarre little tangent is Pedroria while not big may have enough bat speed to compensate for lack of size because if you can improve bat speed that would have an exponential increase in power.

That is a very good point. I've always thought bat speed had more to do about ball-drive rather lift, but that goes back to little league since I was told that, and I don't think coach "Brian's Dad" exactly knew everything about baseball.

But elite sprinters have the majority of their muscle power from essentially having 90% fast-twtch muscle fibers in their legs, oppose to the kenyans with slender legs filled with the less bulky slow-twitch (endurance related) fibers, and closer to 55-60% fast-twitch. It would be very interesting to see the muscle make up of say Barry Bonds (a la Ben Johnson) vs. Soriano ( i.e. Bill Rodgers) and see.

[doc]

That is a very good point. I've always thought bat speed had more to do about ball-drive rather lift, but that goes back to little league since I was told that, and I don't think coach "Brian's Dad" exactly knew everything about baseball.

But elite sprinters have the majority of their muscle power from essentially having 90% fast-twtch muscle fibers in their legs, oppose to the kenyans with slender legs filled with the less bulky slow-twitch (endurance related) fibers, and closer to 55-60% fast-twitch. It would be very interesting to see the muscle make up of say Barry Bonds (a la Ben Johnson) vs. Soriano ( i.e. Bill Rodgers) and see.

Exactamundo dude!

But I'm sure soriano's make up is more fast twitch fibers as well, endurance just doesn't play a role in baseball

it's basic physics, my high school physics teacher was a baseball nut

[BigRed07]

I was just on the espn.com depth chart and it listed Pedroia as the back up RF behind Drew. WMP was only listed behind Ramirez and Crisp.

Is this a mistake or is DP actually considered the best back up RF option this season?

[judyb]

I was just on the espn.com depth chart and it listed Pedroia as the back up RF behind Drew. WMP was only listed behind Ramirez and Crisp.

Is this a mistake or is DP actually considered the best back up RF option this season?

It must be a mistake, but those depth charts are just made up anyway.

[Blessyouboys84]

I've always been curious as to the biggest predictor of power in a batter, the bat speed that one can generate should count for more than raw strength (ie say what you can bench) as F=MV². I'd like to see muscle biopsies of a truly great power hitter, my guess is they'd look more like a world class sprinter than anything else.

So the point of this bizarre little tangent is Pedroria while not big may have enough bat speed to compensate for lack of size because if you can improve bat speed that would have an exponential increase in power.

Here's a link to a series of interesting articles on bat speed and hitting. FWIW.

Most batting instructors would agree that there is a correlation between the velocity of the bat and how far a hit ball will travel. Yet, I have noted that two players swinging the same bat on about the same plane with comparable bat speeds may vary greatly in the power they display. One might hit balls well over 400 ft. while the others would carry only 300 ft. This would seem to be contradictory until you take into account when the maximum bat speed occurred during the two swings.

Link

[doc]

Here's a link to a series of interesting articles on bat speed and hitting. FWIW.
Link

Thanks cool web site, if you read any of Nomar's comments on hitting and study his workout he knew that his power generated from torque produced with his legs and torso on a rotational way.

[tikigods]

Um, are you kidding? Have you heard of Howie Kendrick? What about Josh Barfield? Ian Kinsler? Kelly Johnson? All of these guys look to be more complete players than Dustin.

Pedrioa is a great story because he's such an undersized unsterotypical player, but he is what he is-- a scrappy singles hitter who works the count and plays above average (but by no means spectacular) defense. Take off the Sox-colored glasses here buddy, he's probobly not even a top 5 young 2b.

I agree. Although I think Pedrioa will have a decent year, Kendrick and Kinsler are far more polished hitters than Dustin.