303 replies to this topic

[bakahump]

I hear many in the NY media (surprise) Many in the National media (Like they know a damn thing) and quite a few of us here (now I am worried) talking about this wunderkind.

I know there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.....But how good is Hughes ?

How good will(could) he be?

I know what the stats say.......but whats the consensus?

[croma01]

I hear many in the NY media (surprise) Many in the National media (Like they know a damn thing) and quite a few of us here (now I am worried) talking about this wunderkind.

I know there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.....But how good is Hughes ?

How good will(could) he be?

I know what the stats say.......but whats the consensus?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A lot of the scouting reports and such are rating Hughes as the top pitching prospect and perhaps the top prospect in all of baseball (depending on who makes the major league rosters coming out of Spring Training). He has been a legitimate minor league pitching stud. He projects to being Mark Prior (without the injuries), Roger Clemens, etc. He's a big, right handed power pitcher. Will that translate to major league success? Here is one Yankee fan that really hopes so. Hughes (along with Tabata) are clearly the two crown jewels of the Yankee farm system.

[Bob420]

Projections are nice but Clemens comparisons are a little much and I hope he is healthier than Prior. I would be more than happy with a Mussina like career.

[Paradigm]

A lot of the scouting reports and such are rating Hughes as the top pitching prospect and perhaps the top prospect in all of baseball (depending on who makes the major league rosters coming out of Spring Training).  He has been a legitimate minor league pitching stud.  He projects to being Mark Prior (without the injuries), Roger Clemens, etc.  He's a big, right handed power pitcher.  Will that translate to major league success?  Here is one Yankee fan that really hopes so.  Hughes (along with Tabata) are clearly the two crown jewels of the Yankee farm system.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, there aren't a ton of super-stud pitching prospects that are as ready as Hughes. The only pitcher that gives Hughes a run, who I'd probably rank above him (mostly from what I've read, but also because he's not a Yankee) is Homer Bailey.

[amfox1]

I hear many in the NY media (surprise) Many in the National media (Like they know a damn thing) and quite a few of us here (now I am worried) talking about this wunderkind.

I know there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.....But how good is Hughes ?

How good will(could) he be?

I know what the stats say.......but whats the consensus?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The consensus is that he is the best pitching prospect to emerge from the MFY farm system in more than 25 years. Better than Mariano Rivera, Sam Militello, Andy PetTitte and Brien Taylor. This, of course, is not to say that he will be as good as Rivera or PetTitte in the majors. Potentially, he could be an ace for a decade or more.

[SouthernBoSox]

If he stays healthy he will be an amazing pitcher. Clemens and Pedro good.

[cmaff05]

Here is a clip of him:



He has a combination of power and command that no pitchers in the minors and very few pitchers in the majors have. His fastball command is Schilling/Mussina good. He's got two other plus pitchs (curveball, slider) and another pitcher that is plus (changeup) but is inconsistent. He spots all these pitches (with the exception of his changeup) unbelievably well.

And he's only 20.

Edited by cmaff05, 16 January 2007 - 05:00 PM.

[PooNani]

Here is a clip of him:



He has a combination of power and command that no pitchers in the minors and very few pitchers in the majors have. His fastball command is Schilling/Mussina good. He's got two other plus pitchs (curveball, slider) and another pitcher that is plus (changeup) but is inconsistent. He spots all these pitches (with the exception of his changeup) unbelievably well.

And he's only 20.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for the link. I capped that back in June but ive had issues cutting the file down so I could fit it all on youtube. Too bad there isnt more footage of the two curves he threw during that start

[Mike in CT]

I just don't buy into the Clemens/Pedro comparisons. He has nowhere near the consistent plus plus velocity these guys had in their primes. He works mainly in the lower 90's from everything I've seen and heard.

A tremendous prospect, but the kid is almost in a no win situation already with the expectations most Yankee fans have placed on him.

I have a bit of a soft spot for him though, as he is a die hard Red Sox fan.
: )

[prezzpac]

how much of a plus is his age? on the one hand, it leaves him plenty of time to improve or add velocity by growing into his frame. but on the other hand, isn't 20-25 prime time for injuries to pitchers?

[JakeRae]

If he stays healthy he will be an amazing pitcher.  Clemens and Pedro good.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're joking, right? Please tell me you're joking.

So, here's the facts. Hughes is a great prospect, the best Yankees pitching prospect of recent memory, and one of the top pitching prospects, if not the top, in all of baseball.

Pedro Martinez was the single most dominant pitcher in the history of the game over a short period of time (granted, not everyone agrees with this, but he's definitely in the top handful).

Roger Clemens has put together one of the top 5 careers of any major league pitcher, ever.

There has never been, is not, and never will be a prospect who was/is/will be Clemens and Pedro good. There are guys who optimistically project to maybe be that good. Hughes' high end projection has him pitching like Roger. No one thinks Hughes will be as good as Pedro. Hell, Santana, by far the best pitcher in baseball right now, doesn't come close to what Pedro was like in the 97-2002 time frame.

Yankees fans should be content with talking about Hughes in realistic terms. Saying Hughes is Pedro/Roger good would be like saying some left-fielder who was tearing up high A and AA pitching was Ruth/Williams good. Hughes could easily be the next Mark Prior/Kerry Wood. He could easily turn into an average ML starter. He might flame out and never make the majors (highly unlikely). He might pitch like Roger with the Sox and then see his career tail off. He might do a lot of things. But, I'd place a lot of money right now on the fact that 20 years from now, Hughes' career won't look much like Clemens' or Pedro's.

So, let's actually discuss Hughes' future in a rational manner. Let's talk about whether his PECOTA projection of a 3.91 ERA is reasonable. Let's talk about whether he'll be ready to pitch for the Yankees this year. I'd love to here someone who's seen him pitch break down his stuff. And, let's not cast him as an equal of two of the greatest pitchers to ever play the game.

[mwkaufman]

He's a great prospect, but the comparisons to Pedro/Clemens/Mussina are way out of line. He might be a HOFer, but it's very unlikely.

Most starters that hang around were highly rated prospects earlier in their careers.

Carl Pavano ripped through AA with similar success at age 20. He was then an ok MLB pitcher for the next 8 years, had one good season, got paid off and we haven't heard much from him since.

Mark Prior went from dominating at USC at age 20 to striking out even more batters at AA, before getting called into the rotation that same season and being excellent in the majors. At age 22, he had a dominant major league season, but has gone 18-17 since. Mark Prior struck out 124 batters and walked 24 in 81.1 minor league innings combined between AA and AAA. Philip Hughes struck out 138 and walked 32 in 116 ml innings last season.

Bruce Chen struck out 193 batters and walked 58 in 163.1 innings between AA and AAA at age 21. He managed a mighty 0-7 with a 6.93 ERA along with 70 strikeouts and 35 walks in 98.2 innings and the majors this year, 8 years later.

Tony Armas Jr., another former Yankees prospect, struck out 106 batters and walked 55 over 149.2 innings at AA at age 21 before being called to the majors by the Expos. He managed a 5.03 ERA over 154 innings with 97 strikeouts and 64 walks last season.

Philip Hughes is much more likely to end up like any of these other "great" prospects than end up settling and underachieving to be Mike Mussina, a future HOFer.

Oh, and Roger Clemens career in the minors: 167 IP, 114 hits, 1.62 ERA, 200 strikeouts, 40 walks. Sheerer dominance than Hughes has achieved or will ever achieve at any level. Pedro was actually worse in the minors than the majors, putting up a measly 3.01 ERA over 517.2 innings while striking out 493 and walking 205. He probably should've been called up earlier still after dominating every level through AAA at age 19.

Edited by mwkaufman, 16 January 2007 - 06:51 PM.

[SouthernBoSox]

You're joking, right? Please tell me you're joking.

So, here's the facts. Hughes is a great prospect, the best Yankees pitching prospect of recent memory, and one of the top pitching prospects, if not the top, in all of baseball.

Pedro Martinez was the single most dominant pitcher in the history of the game over a short period of time (granted, not everyone agrees with this, but he's definitely in the top handful).

Roger Clemens has put together one of the top 5 careers of any major league pitcher, ever.

There has never been, is not, and never will be a prospect who was/is/will be Clemens and Pedro good. There are guys who optimistically project to maybe be that good. Hughes' high end projection has him pitching like Roger. No one thinks Hughes will be as good as Pedro. Hell, Santana, by far the best pitcher in baseball right now, doesn't come close to what Pedro was like in the 97-2002 time frame.

Yankees fans should be content with talking about Hughes in realistic terms. Saying Hughes is Pedro/Roger good would be like saying some left-fielder who was tearing up high A and AA pitching was Ruth/Williams good. Hughes could easily be the next Mark Prior/Kerry Wood. He could easily turn into an average ML starter. He might flame out and never make the majors (highly unlikely). He might pitch like Roger with the Sox and then see his career tail off. He might do a lot of things. But, I'd place a lot of money right now on the fact that 20 years from now, Hughes' career won't look much like Clemens' or Pedro's.

So, let's actually discuss Hughes' future in a rational manner. Let's talk about whether his PECOTA projection of a 3.91 ERA is reasonable. Let's talk about whether he'll be ready to pitch for the Yankees this year. I'd love to here someone who's seen him pitch break down his stuff. And, let's not cast him as an equal of two of the greatest pitchers to ever play the game.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, I'm not joking. If he stays healthy, which is a huge if, he will be that good. There are to many signs that point in that direction than anything else.

Why not cast him as that? He has been historically great in the minors. I don't think you understand that. He has been so good there really aren't any good comps for him. I see no reason to say he will be an amazing pitcher bareing injury.

I'm not casting him as an equal, simply saying he has a good chance of being that good.

[PooNani]

Mark Prior went from dominating at USC at age 20 to striking out even more batters at AA, before getting called into the rotation that same season and being excellent in the majors. At age 22, he had a dominant major league season, but has gone 18-17 since. Mark Prior struck out 124 batters and walked 24 in 81.1 minor league innings combined between AA and AAA. Philip Hughes struck out 138 and walked 32 in 116 ml innings last season.

Mark Prior's career went down the tubes because of injury. Any pitcher can get hurt, but we're projecting what hes capable if he stays healthy. Prior was easily on the way to multiple cy youngs.

Bruce Chen struck out 193 batters and walked 58 in 163.1 innings between AA and AAA at age 21. He managed a mighty 0-7 with a 6.93 ERA along with 70 strikeouts and 35 walks in 98.2 innings and the majors this year, 8 years later.

Chen was a soft tossing lefty, and was a year older than Hughes when Phil did his damage in AA (at Age 20 Chen was in low A ball)

Tony Armas Jr., another former Yankees prospect, struck out 106 batters and walked 55 over 149.2 innings at AA at age 21 before being called to the majors by the Expos. He managed a 5.03 ERA over 154 innings with 97 strikeouts and 64 walks last season.

Armas IIRC does throw hardish, but was a year older than Hughes at the same level

Ill throw up a comparison in a few mins for Pavano/Armas/Chen

[SouthernBoSox]

Mark Prior's career went down the tubes because of injury. Any pitcher can get hurt, but we're projecting what hes capable if he stays healthy. Prior was easily on the way to multiple cy youngs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Exactly, saying this guy will be great, baring injury, is a pretty big if. Bottom line is if he stays healthy he is going to be a stud.

[Me and rey]

Phil Hughes is the pitching prospect with the largest number of fans and media invested in his prospective success. if Andrew Miller were in New York , he would be rated at least as highly as Hughes. Let him get a few guys out in AAA before he is compared to Petey or Roger. The level of expectations at this time is dangerously unrealistic for Hughes.

[PooNani]

What order would you take the players? I'd have AVG/OBP/SLG but i cant get 2B, 3B, HBP, and AB #s for the 3 minor leaguers

[PooNani]

Phil Hughes is the pitching prospect with the largest number of fans and media invested in his prospective success. if Andrew Miller were in New York , he would be  rated at least as highly as Hughes. Let him get a few guys out in AAA before  he is compared to Petey or Roger.  The level of expectations at this time is dangerously unrealistic for Hughes.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Except Miller pitched 5 innings in the minors before he was called up and did nothing. He could be a great pitcher but hes got plenty of work to do (though not on the same level as his UNC teammate). The comment about AAA batters doesn't really mean anything right?

[Wingack]

Why not cast him as that?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Because you are a Red Sox fan apparently. Kudos to you for recognizing what Hughes could be.

Of course he could blow out his shoulder in Spring Training. But you can't project someone to have an injury riddled career like Prior/Wood that wouldn't be fair.

[Wingack]

Phil Hughes is the pitching prospect with the largest number of fans and media invested in his prospective success. if Andrew Miller were in New York , he would be  rated at least as highly as Hughes. Let him get a few guys out in AAA before  he is compared to Petey or Roger.  The level of expectations at this time is dangerously unrealistic for Hughes.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Red Sox prospects get huge press as well. Peter Gammons, the most respected writer in the biz, spends time in every column he rights pumping up prospects like Paxton Crawford.

[Lucen]

What order would you take the players? I'd have AVG/OBP/SLG but i cant get 2B, 3B, HBP, and AB #s for the 3 minor leaguers

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd be surprised if anyone DIDN'T take number 3 first, then I'd go with number 1, then 4 and finally 2. You say 3 are minor leaguers, so I'm guessing one is not. If that's the case, then it's tough to make people choose out of this list, as minor league stats don't translate across levels. Also, I'm hoping these are all from the same level of competition... ie AA, or AAA or whatever, since you can't compare stats across leagues and draw any reasonable conclusions.

So if one of these players is from a different league than the other three, it's going to throw off the answers here. And as I'm reading it, one of these stat lines is from a player not in the same league as the other three.

[cmaff05]

You're joking, right? Please tell me you're joking.

So, here's the facts. Hughes is a great prospect, the best Yankees pitching prospect of recent memory, and one of the top pitching prospects, if not the top, in all of baseball.

Pedro Martinez was the single most dominant pitcher in the history of the game over a short period of time (granted, not everyone agrees with this, but he's definitely in the top handful).

Alright, everbody knows that Pedro was incredible. Yes, he was one of the best pitchers ever. Maybe the best ever. We know Hughes is not going to have a Pedro-like career. That type of career comes along every 20-30 years. Phil won't have that type of career. What we are saying is that he can be an elite pitcher in this league like Pedro was. Yes, he won't reach Pedro 1997-2002 level dominance, but he could be an elite pitcher in this league.

Roger Clemens has put together one of the top 5 careers of any major league pitcher, ever.

There has never been, is not, and never will be a prospect who was/is/will be Clemens and Pedro good. There are guys who optimistically project to maybe be that good. Hughes' high end projection has him pitching like Roger. No one thinks Hughes will be as good as Pedro. Hell, Santana, by far the best pitcher in baseball right now, doesn't come close to what Pedro was like in the 97-2002 time frame.

To be fair, you can count the number of pitchers on one hand who had a 5 year dominant stretch like Pedro did. Not even Roger had a dominant streak like Pedro did.

Yankees fans should be content with talking about Hughes in realistic terms. Saying Hughes is Pedro/Roger good would be like saying some left-fielder who was tearing up high A and AA pitching was Ruth/Williams good. Hughes could easily be the next Mark Prior/Kerry Wood. He could easily turn into an average ML starter. He might flame out and never make the majors (highly unlikely). He might pitch like Roger with the Sox and then see his career tail off. He might do a lot of things. But, I'd place a lot of money right now on the fact that 20 years from now, Hughes' career won't look much like Clemens' or Pedro's.

Agreed that Hughes' career will unlikely ever turn out like Pedro or Clemens. But what people are saying is that he has the potential to. But many pitchers have had the potential too... only the special ones put together the hall of fame careers.

So, let's actually discuss Hughes' future in a rational manner. Let's talk about whether his PECOTA projection of a 3.91 ERA is reasonable. Let's talk about whether he'll be ready to pitch for the Yankees this year. I'd love to here someone who's seen him pitch break down his stuff. And, let's not cast him as an equal of two of the greatest pitchers to ever play the game.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Isn't this the same thing as people casting Papelbon as the next Roger Clemens and Lester as the next Randy Johnson? I mean, this comes with the territory with prospects. We get it.

Edited by cmaff05, 16 January 2007 - 07:48 PM.

[bball831]

Exactly, saying this guy will be great, baring injury, is a pretty big if.  Bottom line is if he stays healthy he is going to be a stud.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He could be a stud and could be an Ace, but you're comparing him to two of the greatest pitchers ever. There are more factors than just injury that could prevent him from being one of the top 10 pitchers of all time. You can say he will be an ace caliber pitcher but I find it hard to say as long as he is healthly he will be one of the best pitchers to ever play in the league. It's just too much to say this early in his career.

[cmaff05]

He could be a stud and could be an Ace, but you're comparing him to two of the greatest pitchers ever.  There are more factors than just injury that could prevent him from being one of the top 10 pitchers of all time.  You can say he will be an ace caliber pitcher but I find it hard to say as long as he is healthly he will be one of the best pitchers to ever play in the league.  It's just too much to say this early in his career.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Who said he was going to have a Pedro or Roger like career? Can we talk about Hughes instead? I mean, somebody said that he could be as good as Roger or Pedro was. That's it. Nobody said Hughes was going to be going to the HOF with 330 wins or 200 wins with a career 160 ERA+. He's not capable of Pedro 1997-2002 level dominance, but that's it. He can be an excellent pitcher in this league.

So can we get back to the discussion on Hughes instead of some side conversation that is going to lead nowhere and has been brought up by not just Yankee fans, but Red Sox fans ("Papelbon can become the next Roger Clemens!").

Edited by cmaff05, 16 January 2007 - 07:53 PM.

[BoSox Rule]

Hughes could theoretically have a career that will go down as one of the best. But, you can't ever say for sure. Back in 1984 I doubt anybody would reasonably believe that Roger Clemens would go on to have a career that was arguably better than that of legends such as Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, or Cy Young. Nobody would have listened to you if you told them Pedro would have a 2.82 ERA after 2006.

You can project all you want, but these are just prospects. Hughes could finish his career with a 140 ERA+ in 4000 innings, or a 95 ERA+ in 1500 innings. As of now, things look good for the Yankees. I'd still take Felix Hernandez over him.

Edited by BoSox Rule, 16 January 2007 - 07:53 PM.

[genius-24]

I have a bit of a soft spot for him though, as he is a die hard Red Sox fan. 
: )

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

well you should get rid fot that soft spot cause he aint die hard red sox fan. he was just a person who grew up watching da sox and who liked them.

I have heard that he has never went to sox games. and now he doesnt care about them.

[bball831]

Who said he was going to have a Pedro or Roger like career? Can we talk about Hughes instead? I mean, somebody said that he could be as good as Roger or Pedro was. That's it. Nobody said Hughes was going to be going to the HOF with 330 wins or 200 wins with a career 160 ERA+. He's not capable of Pedro 1997-2002 level dominance, but that's it. He can be an excellent pitcher in this league.

So can we get back to the discussion on Hughes instead of some side conversation that is going to lead nowhere and has been brought up by not just Yankee fans, but Red Sox fans ("Papelbon can become the next Roger Clemens!").

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Right here:

If he stays healthy he will be an amazing pitcher.  Clemens and Pedro good.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He will be, not could be. I don't disagree that he can be, but he said that he will be which is ridiculous.

Anyways, you're right, this is about Hughes. If Pavano is not ready to go, would it be right for them to throw Hughes right into the fire or just have another starter take some starts until Pavano is healthy?

[JakeRae]

No, I'm not joking.  If he stays healthy, which is a huge if, he will be that good.  There are to many signs that point in that direction than anything else.

Why not cast him as that?  He has been historically great in the minors.  I don't think you understand that.  He has been so good there really aren't any good comps for him.  I see no reason to say he will be an amazing pitcher bareing injury.

I'm not casting him as an equal, simply saying he has a good chance of being that good.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Has he been historically great though? Already, someone posted Roger's minor league numbers, which dwarf Hughes'. I don't know how to access historical minor league data, so I can't construct comparisons, but I'd be shocked if Hughes' 10.7 K/9 and 4:1 K/BB ratio are historically unparallelled in AA. When his PECOTA player card comes out, I'll check back in here with the list of his comparables. But, the truth is, PECOTA tends to be overly optimistic in projecting prospects and has Hughes pegged for a 3.91 ERA this year. Guess what Pedro did at age 21? He posted a 2.61 ERA with a 10.0 K/9 in the majors. Guess how many seasons he had that were worse than PECOTA's projected ERA? Last year was the only one. I'm not saying Hughes won't be good or even that he won't be great. I am saying that he won't be Pedro/Clemens good. And, you did cast him as an equal when you said, without qualification, that he would be Pedro/Clemens good. If you had said, he's going to be a very good pitcher and maybe, if the Yankees get really really really lucky, he'll pitch close to as well as Pedro and Clemens did in their carreers, I wouldn't be arguing with you.

Once again, it is not a slight to Hughes to say he isn't as good as Pedro or Clemens. It shows a complete lack of understanding of the historical greatness of Pedro and Clemens to claim than any prospect is as good as them. I think Daisuke Matsuzaka will be a dominant MLB pitcher. I still wouldn't compare him to Pedro or Clemens. I think Hughes is less certain to be great in MLB than Matsuzaka, although reasonable minds could differ on that subject. I do think that they are comparable based on their performances up to now.

I'll try to phrase this one more way. Pedro, at age 21, didn't project to be Pedro. Same thing for Clemens. Guys don't project to achieve historical greatness. Every once in a while talent combines with the right set of circumstances to produce one of these guys, but you NEVER know who they are going to be in advance. You might supsect or hope, but you never know. You may hope Hughes is the next Clemens, but he is not the next Clemens yet nor will it be realistic to expect him to be until he's got several years in MLB underneath his belt as a dominant starter.

As for Pedro, until someone comes along who proves me wrong, I will continue to believe that there never will be another Pedro and will laugh in the face of anyone who thinks that any other pitcher will achieve that level of dominance/greatness. When Hughes can walk into a season with a goal of keeping his ERA under 1 (I believe this happened in 2000 with Pedro, although I could be off by a year) and not sound like he's high on crack, I will believe that he's as good as Pedro was.

[BoSox Rule]

PECOTA's came out today. His top comparables are Bobby Bradley, Jake Peavy, Brad Penny and of course, the next big ace Edwin Jackson. Oops.

[PooNani]

Notes: Pedro was 4 months younger during this season, and there are enough starts in high A to balance out the AAA ones and put more of a focus on the AA ones. Felix is too young for this comparison much like Dwight Gooden was, but at least its somewhat close. Peavy's #s are a mix of a couple starts at the end of his age 20 season and the start of his age 21 season.

If you can think of any other pitchers who spent their Age 19-20-21 seasons with more than 100 IP in AA and/or AAA, let me add them to the list

Edited by PooNani, 16 January 2007 - 08:08 PM.

[cmaff05]

Has he been historically great though? Already, someone posted Roger's minor league numbers, which dwarf Hughes'.

Do they really dwarf Hughes? At age 21, Clemens had a 5.37 H/9, 2.09, BB/9, 10 K/9, 0.83 WHIP, 5 K/BB, 0.20 HR/9. A year younger, Hughes put up close to the same state line in many more innings (5.66 H/9 0.39 HR/9, 2.48 BB/9, 10.71 K/9 , 0.91 WHIP). If you take away Hughes's May when he was 19... his stats are utterly dominant. I could post the splits if you want.

Edited by cmaff05, 16 January 2007 - 08:11 PM.

[JakeRae]

PECOTA's came out today.  His top comparables are Bobby Bradley, Jake Peavy, Brad Penny and of course, the next big ace Edwin Jackson.  Oops.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry, I didn't scan that far over in the spreadsheet. That's a very good list of comparables and fits with my general impressions of him. Of course, another important question is how comparable is he to those guys, and we'll really only see that when the complete player cards come out (hopefully tomorrow). Peavy was his top comp last year with Jackson at #4, so he seems to be consistently following their career paths. It will be a shame if Hughes ends up pitching like Jake Peavy and is considered a disappointment because the NY media has hyped him so much that unless he achieves historical greatness he'll be viewed as a disappointment.

[PooNani]

Clemens' minor league numbers are great but he was a year older than Hughes at the same level and only had 7 starts in AA

PECOTA's came out today.  His top comparables are Bobby Bradley, Jake Peavy, Brad Penny and of course, the next big ace Edwin Jackson.  Oops.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

oh man, Hughes is screwed

Bobby Bradley had an incredible season in low A ball at age 19, but only 9 starts at high A at age 20 (with a 1.31 WHIP) and missed a year and a half after undergoing arm surgery. I have no clue why PECOTA would come up with him as a comparable.

Brad Penny spent his age 20 season in high A ball with a 1.05 WHIP but a .82 HR/9. His next season in AA (Age 21) he had a WHIP of 1.49 with Arizona's AA team, and a little better with Florida's. Again, not a great comparison at all

Edwin Jackson is a better comparable, as he was only 3 months younger than Hughes and spent the entire year in AA.

.55 HR/9 - 3.22 BB/9 - 9.53 K/9 - 1.17 WHIP

Again, not at Hughes' level, but the Dodgers rushed him straight to the majors during the end of that age 19 season, and they messed with his mechanics during the following spring training and he hasnt been able to command his stuff since

[cmaff05]

Sorry, I didn't scan that far over in the spreadsheet. That's a very good list of comparables and fits with my general impressions of him. Of course, another important question is how comparable is he to those guys, and we'll really only see that when the complete player cards come out (hopefully tomorrow). Peavy was his top comp last year with Jackson at #4, so he seems to be consistently following their career paths. It will be a shame if Hughes ends up pitching like Jake Peavy and is considered a disappointment because the NY media has hyped him so much that unless he achieves historical greatness he'll be viewed as a disappointment.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You mean the same way Peter Gammons hyped Craig Hansen as the next Mariano Rivera? Or how every new Red Sox draftee has a future major league career according to Gammo?

Edited by cmaff05, 16 January 2007 - 08:18 PM.

[PooNani]

I'd be surprised if anyone DIDN'T take number 3 first, then I'd go with number 1, then 4 and finally 2.  You say 3 are minor leaguers, so I'm guessing one is not.  If that's the case, then it's tough to make people choose out of this list, as minor league stats don't translate across levels.  Also, I'm hoping these are all from the same level of competition... ie AA, or AAA or whatever, since you can't compare stats across leagues and draw any reasonable conclusions.

So if one of these players is from a different league than the other three, it's going to throw off the answers here.  And as I'm reading it, one of these stat lines is from a player not in the same league as the other three.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry I tricked you, i meant the 3 players other than Hughes (were minor leaguers)

#1: Pavano
#2: Armas
#3: Hughes
#4: Chen

Chen and Armas were 21 in AA, Pavano and Hughes 20

Edited by PooNani, 16 January 2007 - 08:17 PM.

[Wingack]

You mean the same way Peter Gammons hyped Craig Hansen as the next Mariano Rivera? Or how every new Red Sox draftee has a future major league career according to Gammo?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Like how Paxton Crawford was going to have half a dozen Cy Young's on his mantle.

[PooNani]

could we not have this turn into a pissing match? thanks

[Crazy Puppy]

Josh Beckett in AA (age 21):
ERA: 1.82
K/9: 12.35
K/BB: 5.37
WHIP: 0.93

Phil Hughes in AA (age 20):
ERA: 2.25
K/9: 10.71
K/BB: 4.32
WHIP: 0.91

There are plenty of differences between the two (Beckett's HR rate that season being chief among them), but the point is that there are some obstacles between dominating AA at a young age and being an ace in the major leagues. Beckett was considered one of the best pitching prospects ever...800 ML innings later, we're still waiting for that No. 1 starter.

[cmaff05]

Josh Beckett in AA (age 21):
ERA: 1.82
K/9: 12.35
K/BB: 5.37
WHIP: 0.93

Phil Hughes in AA (age 20):
ERA: 2.25
K/9: 10.71
K/BB: 4.32
WHIP: 0.91

There are plenty of differences between the two (Beckett's HR rate that season being chief among them), but the point is that there are some obstacles between dominating AA at a young age and being an ace in the major leagues. Beckett was considered one of the best pitching prospects ever...800 ML innings later, we're still waiting for that No. 1 starter.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Beckett will never have the command that Hughes has right now.

[NDBoston]

You mean the same way Peter Gammons hyped Craig Hansen as the next Mariano Rivera? Or how every new Red Sox draftee has a future major league career according to Gammo?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This isn't NYYFans where you trolled forever until you were finally booted out. Your shelf life will be much shorter here if you act the same way, CMAff.

Edited by NDBoston, 16 January 2007 - 08:45 PM.

[JakeRae]

Just to be clear, I get pissed when anyone compares prospects to great ML players without qualifying their statements. And, usually, when Sox prospects are overly lauded here, someone steps in and reminds people that they are just prospects. That's all I'm trying to do.

Have I said anything negative about Hughes? No. All I've suggested is that we shouldn't be inducting him into the inner circle of the HoF yet. I do think he projects as a future ace and will likely be one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball in a few years. I also think it is possible that he performs at a historically great level. I don't think that is likely merely because I don't think that is likely for any pitching prospect and there is a lot of evidence to back that up, Edwin Jackson being not a bad example of it. It is possible that Hughes ends up merely average or flames out. I think we all need to remember these possibilities when talking about prospects.

[cmaff05]

This isn't NYYFans where you trolled forever until you were finally booted out. Your shelf life will be much shorter here if you act the same way, CMAff.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

First of all, I'm not trolling here. Second of all, I'm suprised you haven't been booted out of NYYFans.com because you were the biggest troll of them all.

Third of all, can we please talk about Hughes? Thanks and come again.

[Crazy Puppy]

Beckett will never have the command that Hughes has right now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hughes had a higher BB rate in AA than Beckett did, and for their minor league careers their BB rates are almost identical.

[JakeRae]

Josh Beckett in AA (age 21):
ERA: 1.82
K/9: 12.35
K/BB: 5.37
WHIP: 0.93

Phil Hughes in AA (age 20):
ERA: 2.25
K/9: 10.71
K/BB: 4.32
WHIP: 0.91

There are plenty of differences between the two (Beckett's HR rate that season being chief among them), but the point is that there are some obstacles between dominating AA at a young age and being an ace in the major leagues. Beckett was considered one of the best pitching prospects ever...800 ML innings later, we're still waiting for that No. 1 starter.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Given those numbers, I'm surprised Beckett isn't one of Hughes top comps, although he might be lower down on the list. And, this is a great example of why annointing Hughes the next Clemens is premature.

Beckett will never have the command that Hughes has right now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Look at the numbers in the post you responded to. Beckett, in AA, had the command that Hughes has right now and struck out more guys at a similar age.

[cmaff05]

Hughes had a higher BB rate in AA than Beckett did, and for their minor league careers their BB rates are almost identical.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, Beckett had a lower BB rate in AA, that is true. But he did it in a smaller amount of innings. And since he had such great stuff, he could just attack the batters and they couldn't hit it anyways. He always has been a bulldog. He could get away with it in the minors.

Beckett does not have pinpoint command in the way Hughes does. He never did. He never will.

Edited by cmaff05, 16 January 2007 - 08:57 PM.

[NDBoston]

First of all, I'm not trolling here. Second of all, I'm suprised you haven't been booted out of NYYFans.com because you were the biggest troll of them all.

Third of all, can we please talk about Hughes? Thanks and come again.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Keep grasping for straws, Cmaff. You're not here for intelligent discussion, you're here to stir up shit. You will be gone soon enough.

[PooNani]

JakeRae there is a big difference between command and control

Josh Beckett in AA (age 21):
ERA: 1.82
K/9: 12.35
K/BB: 5.37
WHIP: 0.93

Phil Hughes in AA (age 20):
ERA: 2.25
K/9: 10.71
K/BB: 4.32
WHIP: 0.91

There are plenty of differences between the two (Beckett's HR rate that season being chief among them), but the point is that there are some obstacles between dominating AA at a young age and being an ace in the major leagues. Beckett was considered one of the best pitching prospects ever...800 ML innings later, we're still waiting for that No. 1 starter.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is where the scouting reports come into play. Beckett and Hughes are completely different pitchers, in the same way that Bailey and Hughes are (Bailey and Beckett are eerily similar pitchers back down to their background).

Beckett and Bailey are flamethrowers with plus-plus curves but (as Red Sox fans learned this year), when Beckett's curve isnt being spotted, he has to rely on his fastball command which is average at best. Bailey actually has a developing changeup which may be an average pitch eventually (unlike Beckett). Hughes on the other hand has excellent command of his fastball and commands his curveball very well whether its to bury it in the dirt or spot it for a strike. His changeup has excellent fade but the command of that pitch is an important thing for Hughes to master as he continues to mature as a pitcher, as he made great leaps from his start in A ball in 05.

[Me and rey]

Except Miller pitched 5 innings in the minors before he was called up and did nothing. He could be a great pitcher but hes got plenty of work to do (though not on the same level as his UNC teammate). The comment about AAA batters doesn't really mean anything right? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The quote about AAA refers to the fact that Hughes will be facing older hitters at this level who can hit the fast ball for the most part. if he dominates at this level , i would see his potential as being a pitcher similar to Tom Seaver, which is pretty damn good.

[epraz]

If you can think of any other pitchers who spent their Age 19-20-21 seasons with more than 100 IP in AA and/or AAA, let me add them to the list

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

http://www.thebaseba...ck-Ankiel.shtml

[cmaff05]

Keep grasping for straws, Cmaff. You're not here for intelligent discussion, you're here to stir up shit. You will be gone soon enough.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Could you please grow up? I mean, come on. You came in here and attacked me. I didn't say anything to you. I am having a civilized conversation here.

Please grow up and get the hell out of here if you have nothing to say about Hughes. Me and other people here are trying to have an intelligent conversation here and you are watering it down.