160 replies to this topic

[yecul]

Rotoworld:

The Red Sox and Joel Pineiro are close to agreeing to a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $4 million, ESPN.com reports.

Incentives could increase the total. We like the idea of Pineiro as a reliever, though Eric Gagne at $6 million guaranteed seems like a better investment than Pineiro at $4 million. For that kind of money, Pineiro will likely receive an opportunity to take over as Boston's closer. He had plenty of opportunities to start elsewhere, and it seems doubtful that he's passing them up in order to become a middle reliever.

Gagne's health scared off everyone, but I agree that taking a flier on Pineiro is simply a different type of risk. If they hit, this will be a great "we're smart" tab for the resume. If not, I guess it's just a couple mil.

Edit -- Forgot the ESPN link: http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=2718865

Edited by yecul, 04 January 2007 - 07:37 PM.

[PedroKsBambino]

A couple mil....plus the opportunity cost, which is the bigger concern. At some point soon they run out of spots to keep adding guys to the mix, and they have yet to line up a true hi-lev reliever.

I almost wonder if Pineiro isn't a hedge against moving Papelbon back to the pen eventually.

[DavidTai]

A couple mil....plus the opportunity cost, which is the bigger concern.  At some point soon they run out of spots to keep adding guys to the mix, and they have yet to line up a true hi-lev reliever.

I almost wonder if Pineiro isn't a hedge against moving Papelbon back to the pen eventually.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dunno- it looks more like they're going to give him a shot as a closer, ala Tom Gordon.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Pineiro's been absolutely dreadful for each of the past 3 years:

ERA: 4.67, 5.62, 6.36

K rate: 7.10, 5.10, 4.73

K/BB: 2.58, 1.91, 1.36

OPS allowed: 762, 807, 871

All done in a pitcher's park.

He's got 1 career save.

I see very little here, on first blush, to think he'll be worth a damn in 2007.

[PooNani]

They must see something to fix in his mechanics, because his velocity was down again in 06 (sitting in the high 80s) and his numbers were terrifying. Unless they carry 7 relievers, the pen would be done correct? Okajima, Timlin, Donnelly, Pineiro, Romero, Tavarez all signed to guaranteed contracts. Though i suppose Romero could be cut for a million or two in change if Cox or Hansen emerges in the minors

Edited by PooNani, 03 January 2007 - 04:28 PM.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I suppose in a world of Jeff Suppan and Gil Meche contracts, this is a bargain, but what's wrong with this set of numbers?

2.03 0.942
3.24 1.250
3.78 1.266
4.67 1.329
5.62 1.481
6.36 1.648

That's the progression of Pineiro's ERA and WHIP over the last 6 years. Yikes!

Has the current Sox regime had any success with reclamation projects? Wade Miller, John Halama, Matt Mantei, Chad Fox, Jason Johnson, etc... would say no. Am I forgetting anybody?

Edited by Kevin Mortons Ghost, 03 January 2007 - 04:30 PM.

[PedroKsBambino]

I see very little here, on first blush, to think he'll be worth a damn in 2007.

As a starter, I tend to agree.

His numbers in the first inning (271/350/375 over last three years) and first 30 pitches (263/340/395) are somewhat more encouraging. As a reliever, it's a guess that his stuff translates better to the pen. As a starter, he's a stopgap basically.

I guess I see an interesting swingman here who you might get lucky with on the transition to the pen. But not a true starter or closer I'd bet on.

[Rudy Pemberton]

So a 6.36 ERA now gets you $4M?

1.2 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 68 ERA+

Talk about trends......

Since '01, his ERA+ has gone from 207, 130, 117, 92, 77, to 68

In '03, his HR rate was 0.8, BB rate was 3.2, and K rate was 6.4.

Career 5.08 ERA away from Safeco.

Of course...on the bright side...in his career he has some interesting splits (but so did John Halama, I know).

In 70 IP as a reliever, 0.6 HR/9, 4.5 BB/9, 8.0 K/9.

In the first inning, he has a 268/352/384 line. 5.55 ERA in Fenway, but 3.69 at MFY Stadium.

I dunno.

(Just a random though...but what are average numbers in a pitchers first inning? Meaning, do pitchers normally do better in their first inning? I would tend to think so.)

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 03 January 2007 - 04:33 PM.

[jose melendez]

What the hell happened to his K Rate? Even if the percentage of balls in play going for hits stays constant (which it problem didn't) losing 40% of your strikeouts will kill you in any park.

Seems like he never got it back after the sore elbow in 2004. I guess their banking on the notion that with fewer innings he can bring it.

[djhb20]

They must see something to fix in his mechanics, because his velocity was down again in 06 (sitting in the high 80s) and his numbers were terrifying. Unless they carry 7 relievers, the pen would be done correct? Okajima, Timlin, Donnelly, Pineiro, Romero, Tavarez all signed to guaranteed contracts. Though i suppose Romero could be cut for a million or two in change if Cox or Hansen emerges in the minors

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd would hope that the Sox would continue to look to add a higher-level reliever if the price is right. I have no doubt that the FO is willing to cut bait (and swallow the money) on one or more of these mid-level/longshot guys if need be.

It's true that there is an opportunity cost of a lost roster spot here, but it's also true that as you wait longer to fill those spots, the options available for them decrease (and likely worsen). The right move by a FO that can afford it is to stockpile when you can, but be willing to cut bait (release or trade for cents on the dollar, or in these cases, pennies on the dime) if a better option comes around. Otherwise, if a better option doesn't come around, who knows what you're stuck with.

I also agree that the idea must be that they think they can get him throwing hard again and make him into a good reliever. Otherwise, this just really makes no sense.

[southshoresoxfan]

They must see something to fix in his mechanics, because his velocity was down again in 06 (sitting in the high 80s) and his numbers were terrifying. Unless they carry 7 relievers, the pen would be done correct? Okajima, Timlin, Donnelly, Pineiro, Romero, Tavarez all signed to guaranteed contracts. Though i suppose Romero could be cut for a million or two in change if Cox or Hansen emerges in the minors

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ah the ol too many pitchers argument. Count me in as fine with it if the Red Sox sign Pinero. He was once a real good pitcher, and hasn't had a major injury to explain this drop in performence. Several posters are saying why are we giving up so much for Cordero, why don't we find Joe Nathan 2.0. Well, acquiring some failed starters has to be step number one, no?

Edited by southshoresoxfan, 03 January 2007 - 04:38 PM.

[Joe D Reid]

Just for giggles, here's Pineiro's top comps per BP:

1 Pedro Astacio 1997
2 Todd Stottlemyre 1993
3 Jim Slaton 1978
4 Reggie Cleveland 1976
5 Dick Drago 197
6 Vicente Padilla 2005
7 Moose Haas 1984
8 Jim Colborn 1974
9 Frank Castillo 1997
10 Stan Bahnsen 1972

When 3 of your top 10 comps are guys who have spawned smartass handles on SoSH, you are not good.

If I had to find something nice to say, I'd note that his PERA's have consistently been better than his ERA's, and that his ERA has been inflated by a weird ER/UER ratio (the guy had 6 unearned runs in '06; zero in '05).

USS Mariner, which watched him pretty closely, went from cautious optimism last spring to he's cooked certainty on Pineiro last summer.

I recognize that he's not being brought in to carry the rotation, but even in this market $4M seems a bit much to pay for a Reggie Cleveland impersonation.


EDIT--formatting.

Edited by Joe D Reid, 03 January 2007 - 04:50 PM.

[Worst Trade Evah]

For what it's worth, he's one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball, on an ERA-FIP or ERA-xFIP basis.

But we're about to pay this guy at least as much or more than Foulke is getting from the Indians. Anyone want to make a bet as to who will have the better year?

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

They must see something to fix in his mechanics, because his velocity was down again in 06 (sitting in the high 80s) and his numbers were terrifying. Unless they carry 7 relievers, the pen would be done correct? Okajima, Timlin, Donnelly, Pineiro, Romero, Tavarez all signed to guaranteed contracts. Though i suppose Romero could be cut for a million or two in change if Cox or Hansen emerges in the minors

I think it means that Manny D is headed out of town in a trade.. I can't see them wanting Delcarmen to start the year in Pawtucket. Who wouldn't rather have Delcarmen in the pen than Pineiro?

[Rudy Pemberton]

I don't believe Foulke wanted to return to the Red Sox for that kind of money though, he wanted to be closer to his family on the West Coast, or in Cleveland, I guess. For $4M and incentives, I'd prefer neither of these guys...but I guess the Sox must see some upside here. To give him a chance to be the closer seems very bold.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 03 January 2007 - 05:05 PM.

[941827]

But we're about to pay this guy at least as much or more than Foulke is getting from the Indians. Anyone want to make a bet as to who will have the better year?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Talk about a false dichotomy. I think the Sox would've happily kept Foulke for what he's getting from the Indians. He didn't want to pitch in Boston.

That said, $4 million for Pineiro does seem like an overpay. He didn't pitch well when used as a reliever last year. The USS Mariner guys are dumbfounded.

Edit: Hmmm... Maybe I spoke too soon based on a scan of his game log. His BAA as a reliever last year was .213 and he had 20K in 24 1/3 IP as a reliever.

Edited by 941827, 03 January 2007 - 05:11 PM.

[Lucen]

Wish I had something positive or optimistic to add here, but I don't.

Year    fip      fip-era    xfip
2004: 4.50       -0.18      4.48
2005: 4.41       -1.21      4.59
2006: 5.12       -1.24      4.92

So while he has been hurt by his defense in the last three years, it hasn't been by enough to suggest he isn't declining or that he hasn't been horrible.

Also...

Year   LOB%
2004:  70.5
2005:  66.2
2006:  63.8

So he doesn't appear to keep runners from scoring very well, and after a 3 year sample I think it's safe to suggest its not just bad luck.

And finally...

Year   PRC    ERA+
2004:  59      93
2005:  57      73
2006:  43      68

For some perspective, 59 (the best year he's had in the last 3) would have put him at 35th in the AL last year, behind the likes of Beckett (77) and Gil Meche (74) and Kris Benson (63). His 43 last year was last among all qualified starters, and that includes the NL.

A quick run down of the stats I cited:

fip = Fielding Independant Pitching
fip-ERA = Difference between fip and ERA
xfip = Expected Fielding Independant Pitching (better in theory than fip)
LOB% = Left On Base %
PRC = Pitching Runs Created
ERA+ = Adjusted ERA

For any breakdowns on these, check out the THT Glossary.

Edit: Formatting.

Edited by Lucen, 03 January 2007 - 05:14 PM.

[Green Monster]

I think it means that Manny D is headed out of town in a trade.. I can't see them wanting Delcarmen to start the year in Pawtucket. Who wouldn't rather have Delcarmen in the pen than Pineiro?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

One would assume that a pending trade would involve bringing back a top reliever as that is the biggest need for the team right now. If Delcarman goes and another reliever returns, they still have an extra guy in the pen, unless the trade were to involve two Red Sox pitchers.

[SouthernBoSox]

Well, because of rumors of this happening I have been breaking down video of Pineiro this year. And it is so amazingly obvious why the Red Sox made this move. As a starter Pineiro stuff is average. A decent fastball, slider, curve and change. In relief his fastball jumps into the 90's with good life and his slider becomes a legit out pitch.

Ok, so here is he scouting report when he comes out of the pen.

Good low 90's fastball with plus life and decent control. He can get swings and misses up in the zone but is more affective throwing it low in the zone inducing groundballs. Nice free and easy motion but can get into trouble when he tries to aim. Seems like he was much better at just letting it go out of the pen.

He possesses a plus slider. He throws this in the high 80's in relief and it has some serious bite to it. He is inconsistent with it though. Sometimes it looks more like a little cutter while other times its a HARD nasty breaking ball. Its his best pitch in relief and he induces a lot of weak contact with it. It will be his go to pitch in the tough situations.

His swing and miss pitch against lefties is a solid change-up. Its thrown in the mid-80's, but its best attribute is its plus movement. The movement is what makes it a legit pitch. His arm motion is pretty good but not great. Because of the movement he gets away with it though.

From what I have seen plus his improving numbers out of the pen make him the number one closer candidate unless something changes between now and spring training.

Edited by SouthernBoSox, 03 January 2007 - 05:16 PM.

[philly sox fan]

Talk about a false dichotomy.  I think the Sox would've happily kept Foulke for what he's getting from the Indians.  He didn't want to pitch in Boston.

That said, $4 million for Pineiro does seem like an overpay.  He didn't pitch well when used as a reliever last year.  The USS Mariner guys are dumbfounded.

Edit:  Hmmm...  Maybe I spoke too soon based on a scan of his game log.  His BAA as a reliever last year was .213 and he had 20K in 24 1/3 IP as a reliever.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not sure if Pineiro at 4M is much better than Foulke at 6M (the 7.5M club option minus the 1.5M buyout).

As it turned out, the Sox did decide that Foulke wasn't worth 2M more than Pineiro.

[PedroWillSaveUs]

I'm rehashing a lot of this from my posts in the non-tender thread. JP is a guy I've been following closely for some time for roto purposes. Like most pitchers, Pineiro would probably post a better ERA as a reliever, but I don't necessarily agree that he's the sort of guy who disproportionately benefits from the switch, as part of his appeal when he was a young pitcher was the variety of his repetoire. He's certainly never been a huge strikeout pitcher.

From 2001-2003 he was one of the most promising young starters in the game, and then, as seemed to happen to a number of Seattle pitchers, he got hurt and started sucking. He has been really atrocious the last two seasons, although he'll still occasionally show flashes of the old dominance.

#1 comp thru age 24: Juan Marichal.

Our counterparts at USS Mariner think Pineiro is completely done, and on a site that is generally quite strict about avoiding steroids speculation, a number of them believe his peak may have been PED-enhanced.

http://ussmariner.co...he-door-hit-ya/

I am fine with this, but I think he would have made a lot more sense for a team like the Cardinals. He's actually been pretty durable and a switch to the NL would probably help.

[GreyisGone]

As it turned out, the Sox did decide that Foulke wasn't worth 2M more than Pineiro.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Which of course assumes Foulke would have pitched here; which seems to be a leap of faith considering how the fans/media treated him and his personality.

[PedroWillSaveUs]

USS Mariner generally thinks this was silly, though most think it's fine given the relatively low cost. Here's their thread on the signing. The above thread I mentioned goes into more detail on JP.

Edited by PedroWillSaveUs, 03 January 2007 - 05:57 PM.

[philly sox fan]

Which of course assumes Foulke would have pitched here; which seems to be a leap of faith considering how the fans/media treated him and his personality.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're suggesting that the Sox would have picked up his option and then Foulke would have retired and given up 7.5M?

Or did you miss my point.

[soxfan121]

Look, Dennis Eckersley is not walking through that door, people.

Given:
1. There were no "lights-out, slam-the-door" closers available on the open market, other than the guy who's thrown ~15 IP total in the past two seasons.
2. The success of less-than-dominant-stuff pitchers as "closers" in MLB over the past ~5 seasons (guys like Saito, Borowski, & Wickman).
3. The at-least interesting possible trend of converting failed SP into RP (guys like Gordon, Gagne, KRod & Jenks).

This is a reasonable, intriguing move. Pinero sucked as a starter - the numbers in this thread conclusively prove he wasn't acquired to pitch the first inning. The numbers also suggest that Pinero might have the stuff to "dial it up" for 1-2 innings and be a passable, useful 9th inning pitcher.

It's an even more interesting, intriguing move if Pinero was signed to be a 6th starter (behind Schilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Wakefield & Tavarez) with Papelbon moving back into the relief ace role. Note- not the "closer" role. AS a relief ace, Papelbon could pitch 3 times a week, with a day off in between each appearance, for 2 innings at a clip. Meanwhile, some combo of Timlin, Donnelly, Okajima and the winner of the Hansen/Delcarmen death match pitching the 8th & 9th on the days between Papelbon availability.

[cannonball 1729]

Has the current Sox regime had any success with reclamation projects?  Wade Miller, John Halama, Matt Mantei, Chad Fox, Jason Johnson, etc... would say no.  Am I forgetting anybody?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Halama was a mediocre pitcher coming off a mediocre season. Jason Johnson was picked up in the middle of the season becase he was a live body with an attached arm at a time where those were in short supply. I'm not sure either of those counts as a reclamation project. Also, Chad Fox flamed out during the "Closer by Committee" fiasco just like the rest of the bullpen; I blame the FO for that, but I don't think that's related to reclamation success - especially since Fox DID have a good season that year once he went to Florida.

More importantly, though, Farrell is supposed to have a say now in who the Sox bring in for reclamation, since he's the one doing the reclamating. I have to imagine that this setup will be better than the previous one.

[GreyisGone]

You're suggesting that the Sox would have picked up his option and then Foulke would have retired and given up 7.5M?

Or did you miss my point.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I understood your point. And I think he'd rather retire than play somewhere that he doesn't love. Hasn't he said as much in the past?

edit: I'll answer my own question:

``My contract status, right now, I could care less about it," said Foulke hours before throwing a scoreless eighth inning in the Red Sox' 4-3 victory over the Orioles last night. ``I might retire. I don't know. It's a big option. If I can't have fun playing this game, if I don't have the motivation to prepare, you know, as far as strength and training and all that.

http://www.boston.co...up_from_foulke/

Edited by GreyisGone, 03 January 2007 - 06:30 PM.

[SoxFanPJ]

Pineiro and Armas have been two relatively young, failed starting pitchers that I have had my eye on this offseason as possible bullpen/closer options. As has been discussed Pineiro pitched relatively well as a reliever in 2006, much better then he did as a starting pitcher.

The way I look at it, the worst case scenario is that Pineiro ends up as a long/middle reliever who is overpaid by about $1M.

Looking into Pineiro's health, because his career never seems to have been the same since 2004 when he went on the DL with elbow problems. According to his MLB.com biography:

placed on 15-day DL July 27, retroactive to July 26, with strained flexor bundle in right elbow;

http://mlb.mlb.com/N...d=334492&y=2004

Edited by SoxFanPJ, 03 January 2007 - 06:47 PM.

[The Flying Dutchman]

I like the move, he is a flexible arm that once showed tons of potential. He is taking a pay cut, getting a change of scenery, a new role, and it is only a 1 year contract.

Add to that that there are no proved bullpen aces available and the role is typically overvalued. I would much rather see a scenario like this than giving up prospects for an established closer that could break down any minute. you dont need to look very far back to remeber when Turnbow, Foulke, & Benitez were elite closers that fell flat on their faces. Even established closers fail and I would much rather take my chance making one and reaping the benefits.

[Diehard]

The Associated Press confirms that Joel Pineiro and the Red Sox have agreed to a one-year, $4 million contract.

The $2 million in bonuses are based on games finished, which illustrates exactly how Pineiro is hoping to be used. An undisclosed player option is also included, which could make it a worse deal for Boston. Pineiro showed potential as a reliever last year and might find his niche if he's allowed to concentrate on throwing one inning a night. Still, this is quite a bit to pay for a guy who could do just about anything.

http://www.rotoworld...t/home_MLB.aspx

Edited by Diehard, 03 January 2007 - 07:35 PM.

[Rough Carrigan]

Look, Dennis Eckersley is not walking through that door, people.

Given:
1. There were no "lights-out, slam-the-door" closers available on the open market, other than the guy who's thrown ~15 IP total in the past two seasons.
2. The success of less-than-dominant-stuff pitchers as "closers" in MLB over the past ~5 seasons (guys like Saito, Borowski, & Wickman).
3. The at-least interesting possible trend of converting failed SP into RP (guys like Gordon, Gagne, KRod & Jenks).

This is a reasonable, intriguing move. Pinero sucked as a starter - the numbers in this thread conclusively prove he wasn't acquired to pitch the first inning. The numbers also suggest that Pinero might have the stuff to "dial it up" for 1-2 innings and be a passable, useful 9th inning pitcher.

It's an even more interesting, intriguing move if Pinero was signed to be a 6th starter (behind Schilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Wakefield & Tavarez) with Papelbon moving back into the relief ace role. Note- not the "closer" role. AS a relief ace, Papelbon could pitch 3 times a week, with a day off in between each appearance, for 2 innings at a clip. Meanwhile, some combo of Timlin, Donnelly, Okajima and the winner of the Hansen/Delcarmen death match pitching the 8th & 9th on the days between Papelbon availability.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The problem with comparing Pineiro to guys like Gordon, Gagne, KRod and Jenks is that all of them had much much better stuff at the time they were converted than Pineiro had last year.

If the Sox have some inside knowledge about his health and reason to believe that he'll get over the elbow or other troubles that've taken the life from his fastball and bite from his curve, then okay. Otherwise it's hard to have much enthusiasm for this.

[Tudor Fever]

I'm sure the rationale here is that there's a chance they'll catch lightning in a bottle, Luis Tiant or Dennis Martinez style. (The 1983 Martinez was actually one of his PECOTA comps, #13, last time around.) FWIW, BP consistently raved about him until a couple of years ago.

[Gehrig38]

The only thing I know is that two years ago I thought this guy had as lively stuff as anyone I had seen in a long time.
He certainly did seem to tail off last year but during some of his games he showed the mid 90s electric stuff he had all the time a few years back.
I thought, from the first day I saw him, that he was built to be a reliever with an incredible arm on a Gordon sized body.
He'll gain a decent amount of velocity heading to the pen, if he can make the mental transition this guys a serious power arm on the back end.
His curveball, when he's fresh, is a strikeout pitch, his fastball certainly is as well, but it was his changeup that wow'd everyone. Tremendous arm action, ball died without looking like it was slowing down.
This, to me anyway, is a no lose signing. This kid gets in the right mix and environment and he ends up being that kid a few years from now people say "How the hell did we let him go?"
I know he tailed off the last two years but I see no downside to adding someone with this good of an arm and some experience under his belt.
I'm still pissed we didn't sign Rollie Fingers....Oh wait, he's not available. Market was sickeningly think for the top shelf stopper this winter, I think we'll find someone to save 42 out of 52 chances this year. We do that and I like our chances.

[SoxFanSince57]

Some scouts, however, think that Pineiro can do a better job of maintaining his velocity and effectiveness in shorter doses out of the bullpen.

ESPN

Clearly this is a BP move; one that is driven by scouts as opposed to stat heads.

I would guess that the Sox will continue to stockpile pitchers. And I won't be surprised if at some point some of the young arms are moved to acquire Theo's version of "the great white hope".

Like others have said, the Sox are running out of roster spots. That could mean that guys like Hansen and MDC will have their shot in ST and if they don't impress they will get their tickets to Pawtucket. Or it could mean that the Sox are moving toward packaging 2-3 players to land our "closer".

[paulftodd]

From what I have seen plus his improving numbers out of the pen make him the number one closer candidate unless something changes between now and spring training.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Small sample but here are some 06 comparisons of Pineiro RP/SP which supports that he was more effective as a RP . Also, he was being used at long relief at times, 3-4 IP so if held to shorter outings these numbers could be improved.

K/9, 7.5 RP/ 4.3 SP
WHIP 1.2 RP/1.73 SP
BB/9 3.7 RP/3.4 SP
BABIP 242 RP/343 SP

I think it is a good pick up for a team which can afford to gamble. If he is crap, move on and take your losses, if he works out, nice.

[SoxFanSince57]

I'm still pissed we didn't sign Rollie Fingers....Oh wait, he's not available.

I think he might reconsider if the Sox offered about $1,433,609 plus meal money!

[Rudy Pemberton]

You're suggesting that the Sox would have picked up his option and then Foulke would have retired and given up 7.5M?

Giving $7.5M to a guy who had a 5.10 ERA over the past few years, was constantly injured, and didn't want to be here would have been a tad peculiar, no? If Foulke got $7.5M for a year, Piniero probably would have ogtten $6M.

[sox junky]

The AP article mentions that there's a player option involved. That seems risky to me and could potentially make this a bad deal. As it is, I'm OK with it since there's not many other options outside of vastly overpaying in trade for a "proven closer." But when you look at the total cash expenditure for Pineiro (guaranteed money, incentives, potential player option), I can't help but wonder if they should have been more aggressively pursuing Gagne (or at least Dotel)...

[mabrowndog]

I suppose in a world of Jeff Suppan and Gil Meche contracts, this is a bargain, but what's wrong with this set of numbers?

2.03 0.942
3.24 1.250
3.78 1.266
4.67 1.329
5.62 1.481
6.36 1.648

That's the progression of Pineiro's ERA and WHIP over the last 6 years. Yikes!

I guess that makes Pineiro the http://www.sonsofsam...ok/external.png) center right no-repeat; padding-right: 13px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #3366BB; color: #3366BB; cursor:pointer; text-decoration:none;" class="wiki">Dave Stapleton of pitchers.

[BoSox Rule]

I see we're still going with the see what sticks on the bullpen wall plan. I'm with the USS Mariner on this one. Just about everything than can go up in his career, well, has gone up. (Or down, depending on which is less favorable.)

ERA
2.03
3.24
3.78
4.67
5.62
6.36

ERA+
207
130
117
92
77
68

K/9
6.69
6.30
6.42
7.10
5.10
4.73

BB/9
2.51
2.50
3.23
2.75
2.67
3.48 This one is up and down, decent as a whole

HR/9
.24
1.11
.81
1.34
1.10
1.25

Edited by BoSox Rule, 03 January 2007 - 09:30 PM.

[PedroWillSaveUs]

The strange thing about this deal is that normally a flier like this wouldn't cost so much. We're seeing a bit of this crazy market at the low-end, I suppose. I know this is ultimately peanuts to the Sox, but a guy like this could have been had for half of this--maybe less--an offseason ago. Really very unlikely that he will be effective, but I don't have a problem with it (as long as Theo/Tito are willing to cut bait if he sucks).

Edited by PedroWillSaveUs, 03 January 2007 - 09:28 PM.

[sox junky]

If this is the option on the contract then this isn't too bad:

Pineiro can kick in a 2008 option year on his contract if he finishes 35-or-more games in 2007, according to colleague Tony Massarotti.

Herald Blog

So, basically if he pitches poorly, they pitch him in long relief or release him and they are out 4 million. For him to make more than that, he has to earn it.

I'll give it a cautious thumbs up.

[Jim Gosger]

This is a much better move than more $$ for Gagne or Dotel. This is one time where scouting is more important than stats. There simply isn't enough of a sample size with Piniero in the bullpen for us to get a good statistical picture of JP as a reliever. When you read G38's scouting report above, you understand why the RS made this move. This is a Theo move circa 2003. Low downside, reasonable cost, big time upside.

[Rudy Pemberton]

After seeing the clauses here, this is really a ballsy move by the Sox. They are handing the closers role over to a guy who has never done it before, and who has seen a huge drop in statistical performances over the past two years despite pitching in an environment favorable for pitchers.

A $4M guarantee and the closers role to a guy who had an ERA of 6.36 last year; this is unprecedented, isn't it? This guy's ERA was nearly 2 runs higher than Tavarez's last year, for example.

He has been really bad outside of Safeco in his career; and while he was decent in relief last year the Sox appear to be putting a lot of stock in that (would you make Bryan Corey closer?). In the Cordero thread; there's a lot of talk about how 200+ innings isn't much of a sample, so what does that say for Piniero's work in relief? Keep in mind that Piniero had a .242 BABIP as a reliever (.343 as starter).

They are guaranteeing him a decent amount of money, too. It's an interesting approach, I guess. I'm surprised they didn't more aggressively pursue proven relievers, but that hasn't worked recently for them either.

I hope the Sox are right on this because if this doesn't work out, they'll get a ton of heat for it. While Curt's analysis is nice, what is he going to say? Every time the Sox sign a guy we try to rationalize it...but from the outside looking in, this looks very curious. The sample size as a reliever is too small; and the recent performance as a starter is pretty horrible and trending in the wrong direction.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 03 January 2007 - 09:38 PM.

[yecul]

While I certainly agree that Pineiro has shown electric stuff, as Schilling cites, there is a good reason for his fall off. In his successful years he had more velocity and better movement on his pitches. I remember seeing him pitch a few season ago. This past season? That stuff wasn't there and it was accompanied by a drop in mph.

He has a good ceiling if he can recapture his stuff. But this is a bit of a project and it's tough to rely on those. I'm interested to see how the season pans out. Pinching a few pennies now might end up costing them more later. Losing games in the first half and then overpaying for a reliever a couple months in is worth more than a few mil. Not that there were better or more sure options available. I prefer this to acquiring Cordero.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

It's an even more interesting, intriguing move if Pinero was signed to be a 6th starter (behind Schilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Wakefield & Tavarez) with Papelbon moving back into the relief ace role. Note- not the "closer" role. AS a relief ace, Papelbon could pitch 3 times a week, with a day off in between each appearance, for 2 innings at a clip. Meanwhile, some combo of Timlin, Donnelly, Okajima and the winner of the Hansen/Delcarmen death match pitching the 8th & 9th on the days between Papelbon availability.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What makes you think Terry Francona would do this? Papelbon was used almost exclusively in the traditional closer role last season until he wore out - 3 run lead in the ninth and he was out there almost every time. There was lots of talk early in the season about using Papelbon in some non-traditional yet smarter way, but i don't remember any indication that the idea ever appealed to Francona.

[Crazy Puppy]

After seeing the clauses here, this is really a ballsy move by the Sox. They are handing the closers role over to a guy who has never done it before, and who has seen a huge drop in statistical performances over the past two years despite pitching in an environment favorable for pitchers.

Why do you think they're "handing the closers role" over to Pineiro? Because of the "games finished" incentives? There are other guys in the bullpen with bonuses and escalators based on games finished, including Mike Timlin and Runelvys Hernandez.

Obviously they see him as a possible solution in the back of the pen, but I think he'll have to win the job.

[smastroyin]

I'm definitely in agreement with those who are saying this is a scouting decision. There is no statistical justification so it's kind of pointless to look at it. I guess we have some evidence that he was better relieving last year, that's nice but it was a small sample in essence and I'm sure it can be dismissed pretty easily.

The real question here is how much the scouts should be trusted? Are these the same scouts who suggested Mike Remlinger or Chad Harville or a bunch of other guys who, although cheap, amounted to a net negative for this team?

I can be convinced, I suppose, that this was an ok deal and there is reason for optimism. I just wish I had something concrete to look at in the recent past that told me the Sox were any good at turning these kinds of flyers into value.

As for his price, even with his self-destructing peripherals, I'm guessing he had a couple of 2 yr, $5-6 MM deals waiting for him as a starter, so this was required to get him to come somewhere and try the bullpen, I would think. It sounds completely outrageous in the abstract, though.

[BosoxBob]

Here's a few more tidbits to consider:

• Pineiro's G/F ratio has been climbing the past few years (2004-06: 1.18, 1.29, 1.61). You'd think that with the solid IF defense the M's have had, that would have been a good thing. However, Pineiro had abnormally high BABIP in both 2005 (.321) and 2006 (.329). Coincidentally, his Line Drive rate (LD%), usually around 20% for most pitchers, was 22.1% and 23.4% for those years (note: a very high percentage of line drives result in hits). In contrast, in his 24.1 relief innings in 2006, he had a 15.7 LD%. Has the guy been snakebitten the past two years?
• Pineiro walked 10 batters in relief in 2006, but 5 of them were intentional. Removing them results in a 1.85 BB/9 - much better than his 2.95 career number. Also of note is that none of his 10 HBPs in 2006 came as a reliever.
• The three HRs Pineiro gave up in relief were to the DRays' Delmon Young (who was on a tear until pitchers realized he'd swing at anything), and the White Sox' Paul Konerko and Juan Uribe (in Chicago).
• Kenji Johjima was the primary catcher for the M's in 2006. Coming from the Japan and playing his first year in the majors, he was at a disadvantage in not knowing anything about opposing hitters. Perhaps that explains why Mariners' pitchers had an AL-high 3.85 P/PA. Adding to that is the fact that Johjima had a catcher ERA of 4.81, as opposed to his backup Rene Rivera, who had a 3.62 CERA (and who caught Pineiro's shutout performance against the Sox in April). I'd have to think that Pineiro will be improved just by pitching to Tek.

Despite the concerns over the small sample size w.r.t. Pineiro's relief stats, I think this is a worthwhile gamble on the part of the Sox.

Edited by BosoxBob, 03 January 2007 - 11:38 PM.

[philly sox fan]

The real question here is how much the scouts should be trusted?  Are these the same scouts who suggested Mike Remlinger or Chad Harville or a bunch of other guys who, although cheap, amounted to a net negative for this team?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Sox have turned over their professional scouting staff quite a bit in the last year or two. If Theo went around the room polling everybody in the pro scouting dept on Pineiero, I'd guess it very likely that most of the scouts in the room are different from the ones that were making the Remlinger, et al decisions.