[The Big Red Kahuna]

Per mlb.com, Zito might be a done deal w. the Giants...

Not Official... but close?

Just in case some were thinking the Yankees might go after him hard to replace RJ (if traded)

[Hello]

Wow.

6 years, $84M?

That isn't even close to as terrible as I thought it would be.

[TheoShmeo]

Skiponzo, on Dec 28 2006, 11:28 AM, said:

Interesting BP article about RJ.

Link
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That is an interesting article. It sadly reminds me of the Sox decision to trade of one of their "excess" starters last year.

My assumption has been that the Yankees would only trade Johnson if they had Zito or Clemens in the bag. If that isn't true, then I think BP's basic point -- that teams should think long and hard before trading good to potentially great pitching -- is doubly true.

[PooNani]

The Big Red Kahuna, on Dec 28 2006, 11:41 AM, said:

Per mlb.com, Zito might be a done deal w. the Giants...

Not Official... but close?

Just in case some were thinking the Yankees might go after him hard to replace RJ (if traded)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

thank baby jesus. screw clemens too.

This post has been edited by PooNani: 28 December 2006 - 11:47 AM

[PooNani]

TheoShmeo, on Dec 28 2006, 11:44 AM, said:

That is an interesting article.  It sadly reminds me of the Sox decision to trade of one of their "excess" starters last year.
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Having watched a few Arroyo starts last year, the Sox only missed out on his innings. Given his peripherals it only seems he was a little luckier in the NL. The Red Sox came into last season with Wells, Clement, Beckett, Schilling, and Wakefield. In addition they had Lester and Papelbon as depth. I dont think it was a terrible idea shedding Arroyo given the ceiling of their return. You can't predict 3/5 of a rotation going down, cancer for Lester, and the pen being a complete mess thus keeping Papelbon there

I dont think the Yankees can think along these lines and keep 6 or 7 starters on the payroll just in case theres a complete trainwreck. Karstens and Rasner showed enough that they could fill in for a few starts if need be, and there is more quality depth in the upper minors than the Sox had at their disposal in 2006, with Hughes, Clippard, Sanchez, and White in Scranton, and kids like Horne, Marquez and Chase Wright in Trenton

This post has been edited by PooNani: 28 December 2006 - 11:55 AM

[Worst Trade Evah]

TheoShmeo, on Dec 28 2006, 11:44 AM, said:

That is an interesting article.  It sadly reminds me of the Sox decision to trade of one of their "excess" starters last year.

My assumption has been that the Yankees would only trade Johnson if they had Zito or Clemens in the bag.  If that isn't true, then I think BP's basic point -- that teams should think long and hard before trading good to potentially great pitching -- is doubly true.
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Why does BP assume that the difference in BABIP between men on and men not on base is just luck? Here's an aging pitcher with a cascade of injuries ranging from back to knee forced to used a different pitching motion. Maybe he just can't do what he used to do from the stretch anymore? There's a reason people don't use the stretch if they don't have to.

[PooNani]

Worst Trade Evah, on Dec 28 2006, 11:59 AM, said:

Why does BP assume that the difference in BABIP between men on and men not on base is just luck? Here's an aging pitcher with a cascade of injuries ranging from back to knee forced to used a different pitching motion. Maybe he just can't do what he used to do from the stretch anymore? There's a reason people don't use the stretch if they don't have to.
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Yeah having watched all his starts last year, it's not all luck, thats for sure. I hope other GMs keep reading these projections though

[XtraBases]

Just wanted to point out that while many people point out RJ's large salary, there is not one FA contract I would rather take on this season then RJ's. (Matsu isn't a FA). Its practically a bargain in this market.

[Eric Van]

Rough Carrigan, on Dec 27 2006, 01:07 PM, said:

The thing about the ERA expected from peripherals is that it assumes that a guy pitching with peripherals that support a 3.79 ERA simply IS a guy who pitches that well with the usual variations of performance from outing to outing.

The problem with applying that judgment to Clockstopper is that even from inning to inning his knees or back would give him no trouble, some trouble or a lot of trouble and he might be a first ballot hall of famer in the first inning, Matt Young in the second inning and then an old man with lumbago sending back soup that arrived cold at the deli.  Yes, it all averaged out to an expectation of a 3.79 ERA but that assumes normal minor variation in ability.  Most pitchers aren't Mel Brooks' 2000 year old man in the even numbered innings.

RC has it.

First of all, the notion that all changes in real pitching ability show up in K rate and BB rate rather than in BABIP is demonstrably wrong. This is especially true if a rise in BABIP is accompanied by a rise in HR rate and/or XBH rate. So there's no reason to think that any of Johnson's runners-on problems were luck. That idea comes from a fundamental misunderstanding of BABIP. As I hope to demonstrate at this year's SABR conference, BABIP relative to teammates and to other pitching rates is as predictable as any other pitching rate.

When a pitcher has a big runners-on / empty split (of any kind), there are three possible sources:

1) He just happened to make worse or better pitches with men on. Neurological luck.

2) He pitches worse or better out of the stretch.

3) He's a Jekyll and Hyde who cruises for stretches and then is terrible for stretches. In either mode, he has no bases-empty / runners-on split, but a much higher percentage of his PA in his bad mode are with runners on. Hence, his bases-empty numbers are something like 70% good mode, 30% bad mode, while his runners-on numbers are the opposite.

My guess is that Johnson was mildly worse with runners on last year when you correct for Jekyll and Hyde, and that most of his worse numbers with runners on (and hence his ERA >> Component ERA, or Scatter / Cluster >> 1.00 as I've termed it) come from the Jekyll and Hyde phenomenon, just as RC says.

[Mike in CT]

A quick glance at NYYFans (slow day) has them buzzing about some rumor of trading Unit + cash + another player(s) to Arizona for Medders and one of Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, or Chad Tracy.

Just some random internet poster that has them all riled up about this... fwiw.

[Hello]

XtraBases, on Dec 28 2006, 01:25 PM, said:

Just wanted to point out that while many people point out RJ's large salary, there is not one FA contract I would rather take on this season then RJ's. (Matsu isn't a FA). Its practically a bargain in this market.
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No, but Mike Mussina was.

But yes, considering Johnson's upside, 1 year at $16M may be worth a trade to some team hoping to contend in the NL. That is my hope anyway.

[Hello]

Mike in CT, on Dec 28 2006, 02:33 PM, said:

A quick glance at NYYFans (slow day) has them buzzing about some rumor of trading Unit + cash + another player(s) to Arizona for Medders and one of Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, or Chad Tracy. 

Just some random internet poster that has them all riled up about this... fwiw.
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A somewhat variation from this rumor?

Quote

The Yankees have expressed interest in right-handed setup man Brandon Medders, the source said, in addition to several of the five starting pitchers the D-Backs consider candidates for the two available spots in their 2007 rotation — Edgar Gonzalez, Enrique Gonzalez, Dustin Nippert, Ross Ohlendorf and Micah Owings.

The D-Backs, looking to retain as much young pitching as possible as they build for the future, have balked at the Yankees’ asking price, although it appears they would consider substituting veteran reliever Luis Vizcaino for Medders.

[Worst Trade Evah]

So here's some charted data of the last few years for RJ, anyway.



When do pitchers (or RJ in particular) pitch from the stretch and when don't they? It'd be nice to get this situation base data with the out data at the time, since presumably 1/3 of the time or so there are two outs (and he'd be less likely to bother with a stretch?)

Just the numbers from 2003-2006, and his career totals. Last year was all over the place for him in some of the situations, which probably is bad luck. Still, I bet there's a pretty strong correlation between where he had to pitch from the stretch and where he didn't. The situations you wouldn't expect a stretch are on bottom, and the situations where you would, almost in increasing probability, are on top.

Anyway, I don't believe Silver's comment, even if in this particular case luck is an issue. The divergence in RJ's results from expected from peripherals to actual isn't just bad luck. For that matter, he had to have had good luck in some respects, in that his performance with no one on was much better than his career line, which you wouldn't expect. It was when runners were on 3rd base that things really fell apart for him, which does suggest an Jekyll-Hyde inability to stop the bleeding when things weren't going well.

This post has been edited by Worst Trade Evah: 28 December 2006 - 03:03 PM

[BigMike]

The rumor about the Yanks looking for 2-3 pitchers for RJ doesn't make much sense to me. I know you can never have enough pitching, but I just don't see guys like Edgar Gonzalez and Enrique Gonzalez making a deal happen

You look at that Arizona list, and the Yanks have at least 2 guys in their minors who are major league ready, and better than anyone on that list. I could see the Yanks having some interest in Owens or Nippert, but the other guys would be throw in types.

[Me and rey]

Worst Trade Evah, on Dec 28 2006, 03:54 PM, said:

So here's some charted data of the last few years for RJ, anyway.



When do pitchers (or RJ in particular) pitch from the stretch and when don't they? It'd be nice to get this situation base data with the out data at the time, since presumably 1/3 of the time or so there are two outs (and he'd be less likely to bother with a stretch?)

Just the numbers from 2003-2006, and his career totals. Last year was all over the place for him in some of the situations, which probably is bad luck. Still, I bet there's a pretty strong correlation between where he had to pitch from the stretch and where he didn't. The situations you wouldn't expect a stretch are on bottom, and the situations where you would, almost in increasing probability, are on top.

Anyway, I don't believe Silver's comment, even if in this particular case luck is an issue. The divergence in RJ's results from expected from peripherals to actual isn't just bad luck. For that matter, he had to have had good luck in some respects, in that his performance with no one on was much better than his career line, which you wouldn't expect. It was when runners were on 3rd base that things really fell apart for him, which does suggest an Jekyll-Hyde inability to stop the bleeding when things weren't going well.
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Perhaps this is a reflection on Randy's confidence in Posada handling The slider down and in to the Righthanded Batter. This has always been his out pitch. It was also the pitch that seemed to disappear for stretches this past year. This may have been a product of his back discomfort preventing him from finishing his delivery.

[PooNani]

Yanks, D-Backs close to Unit deal

Quote

BY BILL MADDEN and
ANTHONY McCARRON
DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITERS

The Diamondbacks have been the most aggressive suitors for Randy Johnson and sources close to the negotiations said yesterday that the Yankees and Arizona could complete a trade to send Johnson back to the desert before next week.

The Diamondbacks, who view Johnson as a gate attraction, want to talk to the Big Unit about a contract extension, a source said. That would give Arizona a chance to reap the attendance and buzz benefits of Johnson going for his 300th victory - he will enter next season with 280 wins.

The Yankees, meanwhile, have their eyes on a package of Arizona pitching prospects. The Diamondbacks are loaded with young talent and if the Yankees send Johnson home to Arizona - Johnson's home is in the Phoenix suburb of Paradise Valley - they'd like to get at least two of the following three pitchers: Dustin Nippert, Micah Owings and Ross Ohlendorf.

Nippert, 25, is a 6-8 righthander who was 13-8 with a 4.87 ERA in Triple-A last season and lost both his major league starts. Owings, a 6-5 righty, was 6-2 at Double-A and 10-0 at Triple-A. Ohlendorf, a 6-4 righty, spent most of last season in Double-A, going 10-8 with a 3.29 ERA. Ohlendorf had 125 strikeouts and only 29 walks in 177-2/3 innings.

http://thebaseballcu...n-Nippert.shtml
http://thebaseballcu...ah-Owings.shtml
http://thebaseballcu...Ohlendorf.shtml

Nippert had a disappointing year in AAA, but hes got #2 starter stuff but has been prone to nibbling. 92-95 fastball, and power curve from 6'7 frame. Owings was drafted in 05 but already made it to AAA. He was a two-way player in college and already has developed a plus slider to go with his 93-96 FB. Still doesn't have enough of a changeup to project as a big time starter (Lefties hit over .280 against him at both AA and AAA), at the least would be a nice setup type. Ohlendorf is a mystery to me. Wasn't on any prospect lists for Arizona the past few years, not a great strikeout rate but excellent walk rate (he did jump from low A to AA ball). From what i've found online, hes a 4th round pick out of Princeton who threw in the mid 90s earlier in his college career but was down to the high 80s prior to being drafted. No idea if that velocity is back or if his secondary pitches are any good. His lefty/righty splits are scary though

Micah in 05

This post has been edited by PooNani: 29 December 2006 - 10:03 AM

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If anyone is interested, here's the D-backs thread discussing the deal.

I will be interested to see how this plays out financially--i.e., how much cash MFYs throw in, what the extension looks like, and how the deferred money is dealt with. From a financial point of view, I would think that the D-backs have enough leverage and pieces to really make out on this deal.

[Winger 03]

wade boggs chicken dinner, on Dec 29 2006, 11:20 AM, said:

I would think that the D-backs have enough leverage and pieces to really make out on this deal.
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But maybe they don't. Wouldn't the Yankees be in the driver seat (or at least even)? NYY does not HAVE to deal Johnson. Big payroll or not, if they think they need Clemens, they will get him. I think NYY would be OK taking Johnson into the season. Look at their rotation, it is not too good. Keeping Johnson only helps it.

If push comes to shove, they can tell AZ to go screw and keep their prospects. AZ needs Johnson to keep up with the division (welcome to the NL Mr. Zito).

Now, that being said, would I like to see Johnson leave for some good prospects, especially pitching? Certainly. I am uncomfortable with his ability to have an effective year, although I am not privy to the health info NYY has. I am more concerned with seeing his $$$ off of the books. ( I figure George would like for the common fan like me to be concerned about his financial well being as I am sure Mr. Henry is with those over here)

[ctsoxfan5]

Winger 03, on Dec 29 2006, 11:48 AM, said:

But maybe they don't.  Wouldn't the Yankees be in the driver seat (or at least even)?  NYY does not HAVE to deal Johnson.  Big payroll or not, if they think they need Clemens, they will get him.  I think NYY would be OK taking Johnson into the season.  Look at their rotation, it is not too good.  Keeping Johnson only helps it.

If push comes to shove, they can tell AZ to go screw and keep their prospects.  AZ needs Johnson to keep up with the division (welcome to the NL Mr. Zito).

Now, that being said, would I like to see Johnson leave for some good prospects, especially pitching?  Certainly.  I am uncomfortable with his ability to have an effective year, although I am not privy to the health info NYY has.  I am more concerned with seeing his $$$ off of the books. ( I figure George would like for the common fan like me to be concerned about his financial well being as I am sure Mr. Henry is with those over here)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But do the DBacks need Johnson? I don't think they have to make this deal either. They can tell the Yanks to either take what they're offering, or forget it. I don't see that either team is really in the driver seat. Why wouldn't the DBacks wait a year, keep their prospects, and sign Johnson next offseason after seeing if he is able to return to form after the back surgery?

[mjdlight]

ctsoxfan5, on Dec 29 2006, 12:51 PM, said:

But do the DBacks need Johnson?  I don't think they have to make this deal either.  They can tell the Yanks to either take what they're offering, or forget it.  I don't see that either team is really in the driver seat.  Why wouldn't the DBacks wait a year, keep their prospects, and sign Johnson next offseason after seeing if he is able to return to form after the back surgery?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, reports say that the D'backs are hoping that Johnson will be a draw at the gate for them as he approaches 300 wins. Maybe they don't want to wait a whole year for that bump in attendance they are hoping for.

Not quite sure I follow the D'backs logic if true, but if the Yankees can get even one quality prospect for that ornery, over the hill, 5+ ERA broken-backed prick, I will be dancing in the streets.