607 replies to this topic

[Lucen]

As much as I hate to admit it, maybe CHB is right. The free agent market is so thin that perhaps Manny's trade value will never be higher.

Let's say the Sox were able to get Orlando Cabrera and Juan Rivera from the Angels in exchange for  Manny. Offensively Cabera and Rivera would provide almost as much combined production as did A-Gon and Manny last year. And that would also free up some money for the Sox to sign Drew and a good second catcher like Barajas or Zaun.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Win Shares:

Juan Rivera: 18
Orlando Cabrera: 19

Manny Ramirez: 29

By this statistical measure, at least, this makes sense. Is there any reason to think the Angels would give up Rivera though?

And this is assuming that Cabrera's 19 WS last year wasn't an outlier. His previous 3 years yielded 14, 5 and 6 respectively.

Edit: Changed from batting WS to total WS.

Edited by Lucen, 22 November 2006 - 12:28 PM.

[DavidTai]

Win Shares:

Juan Rivera: 18
Orlando Cabrera: 19

Manny Ramirez: 29

By this statistical measure, at least, this makes sense.  Is there any reason to think the Angels would give up Rivera though?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Shouldn't you factor in whoever Orlando Cabrera is replacing? What was Alex Gonzalez's win shares? (and Cora/Pedoria?)

(With the new adjustments, I'd guess any SS we pick up need to get at least 8 to be worthwhile... and as Lucen says, 19 seems like an outlier for Cabrera. I'd guess a better estimate would be that any SS needs to be at least 3 to beat the combination of Juan Rivera/Orlando Cabrera.)

Edited by DavidTai, 22 November 2006 - 12:31 PM.

[SouthernBoSox]

If you can get Juan Rivera and Orlando Cabrera for Manny then you do it. The problem is you can't. Thus keeping Manny is by far the best option at this point.

[Green Monster]

Win Shares:

Juan Rivera: 18
Orlando Cabrera: 19

Manny Ramirez: 29

By this statistical measure, at least, this makes sense.  Is there any reason to think the Angels would give up Rivera though?

And this is assuming that Cabrera's 19 WS last year wasn't an outlier.  His previous 3 years yielded 14, 5 and 6 respectively.

Edit: Changed from batting WS to total WS.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LAA is rumored to be going after Gary Mathews Jr. (one report 5/$55M?). It is possible that would allow them to trade Rivera, much the way signing Spier could allow them to trade Shields.

Could Manny for Rivera & Shields be a possibility?

[502 to Right]

Looking at OPS+ for 2006:

Manny - 168
A. Gonzalez - 77
total - 245


Rivera - 131
Cabrera - 95
total - 226

So Manny + a very poor hitting SS (Gonzalez) still outproduces Rivera and Cabrera.

Consider, Manny + Julio Lugo (94 OPS+) and you get a total of 262. So for the FA price of Lugo and not losing Manny, you get much, much better production than in a trade with the Angels. That's not even considering Rivera had a career year that he's unlikely to put up every season.


The only way I'd even consider trading Manny is if the Red Sox got an impact player in return, like Andruw Jones or Miguel Tejada. Since I don't see that happening, I will glady keep Manny for another 2 seasons. I certainly wouldn't throw him away for someone like Juan Rivera and Orlando Cabrera.

Edited by 502 to Right, 22 November 2006 - 12:44 PM.

[xjack]

By this statistical measure, at least, this makes sense. Is there any reason to think the Angels would give up Rivera though?

For DH, LF and RF, the Angels currently have Anderson, Guerrero annd Rivera, so Rivera wouldn't have a position if the Angels traded for Manny. Plus, I believe Rivera is a free agent after 2007.

It's possible we're underestimating Manny's trade value. The Houston Chronicle recently talked about a deal that would involve Chris Burke, Brad Lidge and excellent OF prospect Hunter Pence for Manny. I'm not a big Chris Burke fan, but if that's the kind of deal that's being talked now, just imagine what the Sox could get for Manny after Carlos Lee signs (hopefully with the Phillies, since Gillick wants no part of Manny). We could see an all-out bidding war between the Astros, Angels, Orioles and Rangers.

Consider, Manny + Julio Lugo (94 OPS+) and you get a total of 262. So for the FA price of Lugo and not losing Manny, you get much, much production than a trade with the Angels. That's not even considering Rivera had a career year that he's unlikely to put up every season.

That's a fair point about Rivera's career year. But you also have to take into consideration the defensive upgrade in LF and whether unloading Manny's contract would allow the Sox to sign JD Drew and upgrade the bench and bullpen.

Edited by xjack, 22 November 2006 - 12:43 PM.

[Rough Carrigan]

And Lugo's production was very good before being traded to the Los Angeles Gradies and being used as a utility man.

[Lucen]

Consider, Manny + Julio Lugo (94 OPS+) and you get a total of 262.  So for the FA price of Lugo and not losing Manny, you get much, much production than a trade with the Angels.  That's not even considering Rivera had a career year that he's unlikely to put up every season.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's a purely offensive perspective though. Does defense not matter?

Win Shares:

Manny: 29
Lugo: 13
Total: 42

Cabrera: 19
Rivera: 18
Total: 37

So yes, in 2007, it appears Manny and Lugo are the better option, but Rivera is only 28 years old right now, while Manny is 34. That has to count for something.

I think I'd actually make this trade, especially if the Sox FO is confident they can sign Drew. Now, I don't believe the Angels have done anything, as of yet, to indicate they'd move Rivera, but if they would, this is the first suggestion that makes sense to me if the Sox want to give themselves a chance to make a run in 2007 while improving for the future.

Granted, they'd be better in 2007 not making that move, but maybe they can find a happy medium?

[xjack]

And Lugo's production was very good before being traded to the Los Angeles Gradies and being used as a utility man.

Yes, but wouldn't you rather have Cabrera back? On a lot of different levels, I think bringing back Cabrera would do the Sox a ton of good.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Yes, but wouldn't you rather have Cabrera back? On a lot of different levels, I think bringing back Cabrera would do the Sox a ton of good.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I do not understand the fixation some fans seem to have for Cabrera. He had a very good 1/2 season with the Sox and played excellent defense. One of the 25, blah blah blah.

Over his last 3 years, he's put up OPS+ of 79, 82 and 95. Lugo has put up 94, 105, and 94 over that same time frame.

Cabrera is also currently 32 years old. Lugo is 31. A small thing, but still bears mentioning.

[502 to Right]

Yes, but wouldn't you rather have Cabrera back? On a lot of different levels, I think bringing back Cabrera would do the Sox a ton of good.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd take Cabrera back but it shouldn't cost the heart of your offense to do it. And I'd consider a trade for Cabrera only if Lugo was no longer an option.

Just think, after last season the Angels couldn't give Cabrera away.

[Fratboy]

Looking at OPS+ for 2006:

Manny - 168
A. Gonzalez - 77
total - 245
Rivera - 131
Cabrera - 95
total - 226

So Manny + a very poor hitting SS (Gonzalez) still outproduces Rivera and Cabrera.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Adding two adjusted values together to analyze production? To be polite... no.

WARP1:

Manny 6.3 (130 games)
Adrian Gonzalez 1.5 (110 games)

Rivera 4.9 (124 games)
OCab 4.8 (153 games)

The combination of Rivera and OCab was roughly 1 win better over replacement than Manny and Adrian Gonzalez, and a ton cheaper. If I'm the front office, I make this trade, but I'd be concerned about Rivera staying healthy.

EDIT: Ultimately, my preference would be Manny for Rivera + Shields + swag (if possible), and sign Lugo. Best of both worlds, defense be damned.

Edited by Fratboy, 22 November 2006 - 12:59 PM.

[PedroKsBambino]

Yes, but wouldn't you rather have Cabrera back? On a lot of different levels, I think bringing back Cabrera would do the Sox a ton of good.

No. He didn't really hit well last year, either...335 OBP and a .738 OPS? The chances that Lugo is a legitmate asset are far, far larger than Cabrera, I think.

And that's putting aside that the rumored off-field issues for Cabrera may still exist, if they ever did.

Lugo is being paid because he's produced at a high level the past two years; a .360 OBP with speed is a pretty nice combination even for the run-less Red Sox. Cabrera would be getting paid because he produced in 2003 and for two months in 2004. And I love what he did here in 2004, but I just don't see it going forward even granting that the commitment to him is two years less.

[xjack]

I'd take Cabrera back but it shouldn't cost the heart of your offense to do it.  And I'd consider a trade for Cabrera only if Lugo was no longer an option.

Just think, after last season the Angels couldn't give Cabrera away.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, but that was also true last year of Manny and his contract.

I'm not saying Cabrera+Rivera=Manny+Lugo. However, I do trust Theo & Co. to put the money saved to productive use. That might mean J.D. Drew plus an upgrade at second catcher (the latter is a must no matter what.) It might mean a total OF shakeup that would put Rivera in right, Pena in center and Crisp in left., which in turn would allow the Sox to spend a lot more money on pitching.

I don't know how exactly it would shake out, but I do think the Sox could trade Manny in today's market and reconstruct a team as good without him.

And that's putting aside that the rumored off-field issues for Cabrera may still exist, if they ever did.

Remember, Lugo has off-field issues of his own.

Edited by xjack, 22 November 2006 - 01:01 PM.

[PedroKsBambino]

I thought that Lugo was exonerated in that...legitimately. Is that recollection mistaken?

Maybe he will write a book called "If I did it" and remove any doubt.

[gammoseditor]

And there are no bats on the market to replace what Manny brings to the lineup. Please remember, the Red Sox had exactly two elite hitters and seven guys who were average or slightly better than average. Eliminting one of the two elite hitters makes this lineup incredibly mediocre.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Theres one elite hitter who is a free agent, plays left field, is better defensively than Manny, and whose OPS the last three years is 1.213, and no one seems to really be interested in him. His dad told him Boston was a racist city though so I dont' think he'd come here.

You'd be taking a huge risk that he stays healthy but if we could sign him and trade Manny for a cheap closer and a prospect we could potentially be upgrading at two spots while saving money.

[Bowlerman9]

Theres one elite hitter who is a free agent, plays left field, is better defensively than Manny, and whose OPS the last three years is 1.213, and no one seems to really be interested in him.  His dad told him Boston was a racist city though so I dont' think he'd come here. 

You'd be taking a huge risk that he stays healthy but if we could sign him and trade Manny for a cheap closer and a prospect we could potentially be upgrading at two spots while saving money.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Without even touching the Bonds part, do you have a team who would give us a cheap closer and a prospect in mind, or is this entire trade "in theory only?"

[502 to Right]

Adding two adjusted values together to analyze production? To be polite... no.

WARP1:

Manny 6.3 (130 games)
Adrian Gonzalez 1.5 (110 games)

Rivera 4.9 (124 games)
OCab 4.8 (153 games)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Are the Red Sox bringing Alex Gonzalez back? No. So how can you decide that Rivera/Cabrera for Manny brings back fairly equal production? How about Manny and Lugo? What kind of WARP1 do you get for those two? What do you get when Rivera reverts to form and you get a season like his 2005 and 2004 rather than 2006?

Manny Ramirez is money in the bank. Juan Rivera is not.

Edited by 502 to Right, 22 November 2006 - 01:20 PM.

[Sawx8]

I just heard on the Dan Patrick show that Gary Matthews finalized his 5 year $50 million contract with the Angels. He mentioned that he talked to a source within the Angels that said they have 4 or 5 options to still do a deal for Ramirez, and that this signing would not necessarily stop them from trading for Manny.

[gammoseditor]

Without even touching the Bonds part, do you have a team who would give us a cheap closer and a prospect in mind, or is this entire trade "in theory only?"

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Several possibilities:

Mets-Duaner Sanchez and a few different prospects work
Angels-Scot Shields, also have multiple prospects that work
Dodgers-Jonathan Broxton or Takashi Saito, with the prospect being better if its Saito
Texas-Akinori Otsuka, one of their pitching prospects

I'm not positive any of these teams would do these trades, but I think they're all possible.

[xjack]

Manny Ramirez is money in the bank. Juan Rivera is not.

Again, you're assuming there are no more moving pieces.

Let's be conservative and say Lugo gets $6 million a year. The total difference in 2007 pay between Lugo+Manny and Cabrera+Rivera is about $15 million. I trust the FO to be able do something with $15 million that will make the team as competitive as it was with Manny.

Edited by xjack, 22 November 2006 - 01:31 PM.

[502 to Right]

I trust the FO to be able do something with $15 million that will make the team as competitive as it was with Manny.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I trust that even keeping Manny, this club could spend another $15 million if they needed to.

[OCD SS]

I do not understand the fixation some fans seem to have for Cabrera. He had a very good 1/2 season with the Sox and played excellent defense. One of the 25, blah blah blah.

Over his last 3 years, he's put up OPS+ of 79, 82 and 95. Lugo has put up 94, 105, and 94 over that same time frame.

Cabrera is also currently 32 years old. Lugo is 31. A small thing, but still bears mentioning.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

While I agree, it's also worth pointing out that OCab's contract will only be for his age 32-33 seasons, while the back end of Lugo's (likely larger) contract is going to be for a year later.

The Sox could've picked up OCab's contract last year for nothing; if they wanted to bring him back they would've. They didn't, which means he's not coming back.

Full value for Manny is probably something like Aybar, Santana, and Sheilds. A young, defensive whiz who switch hits at an up the middle position, a young starter who can be flipped (Texas is only willing to move Teixeira for a good young pitcher), and a solid bullpen arm who might be able to close. If the Sox sign Drew they don't need Rivera (except maybe as a 4th OF).

[E5 Yaz]

the angels deal for matthews would, i think, either end their pursuit of manny or put them in a position to not extend themselves in an offer. rivera is clearly expendable to them right now, as is cabrerra, if they choose to go young at SS. but that, to me, isn't enough for manny.

[Green Monster]

I just heard on the Dan Patrick show that Gary Matthews finalized his 5 year $50 million contract with the Angels. He mentioned that he talked to a source within the Angels that said they have 4 or 5 options to still do a deal for Ramirez, and that this signing would not necessarily stop them from trading for Manny.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It may even make a trade more likely........ Shields & Rivera would have to be one of the options.

[Pumpsie]

Several possibilities:

Mets-Duaner Sanchez and a few different prospects work
Angels-Scot Shields, also have multiple prospects that work
Dodgers-Jonathan Broxton or Takashi Saito, with the prospect being better if its Saito
Texas-Akinori Otsuka, one of their pitching prospects

I'm not positive any of these teams would do these trades, but I think they're all possible.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

None of those trades come close to working. Once again, the Sox have to get better for 2007. Keep this in mind.

[yecul]

Manny Ramirez is money in the bank. Juan Rivera is not.

Unless he misses a large chunk of time again. This is an aging DH who's stuck in LF playing poor defense with bad knees and balky hamstrings.

Philly's recent study was about pitchers, but as they showed, you can't add value to your team if you're not playing. Everyone is very conscious and concerned about JD Drew's future games per season, but I think Manny presents quite the risk going forward.

To me, that is the most significant reason that you would trade him aside from the return value.

None of those trades come close to working. Once again, the Sox have to get better for 2007. Keep this in mind.

If the Red Sox score comparable runs to last year and prevent less then they will improve upon last year. I think they can do that with or without Manny. Do you disagree?

No one really considers the effect that keeping Manny will have on Ortiz. The best course of action is to have Manny DH more and have Ortiz play 1B. His poor defense at that position and knee issues are the reason that he is currently a full time DH. What if both get hurt?

There are thousands of scenerios that can play out with Manny, Lugo, Drew, the rest of the FAs and any potential trade acquisitions. Coming to a conclusion about Manny without considering them is foolish and disingenuous.

Edited by yecul, 22 November 2006 - 02:32 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

if the mets or phillies want him, he can't DH (obviously) and the chance that he'll miss time on the DL increases. if the angels actually are still interested, they can rotate manny, vlad and garrett anderson through the corner OF spots and as DH.

i still don't understand why the rangers would want him. offense doesn't appear to be their problem

[5belongstoGeorge]

... Once again, the Sox have to get better for 2007.  Keep this in mind.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Please, Lock. The. Thread.

Pumpsie could not be more correct.

If dumping Manny fullfills "the long term plan" but does not make the 2007 team better than even discussing it is a horrible waste of time.

[NWsoxophile]

It seems like the predominant, and fairly vehement opinion is that the Sox should not move Manny on the basis that no trade will approach equal value and therefore the Sox become a weaker team for trading him. That's a strong argument to be sure. I haven't read the entire thread so I apologize if this has already been addressed- but considering that Manny will almost certainly not be extended beyond 08, isn't moving him on that basis alone a valid argument. While a trade would probably weaken the team for the next year or two, wouldn't it be more damaging to the team to lose him after 08 with no compensation at all?

[The Gray Eagle]

"None of those trades come close to working."

What about the 3-way deal I proposed that moves Manny, Crisp and Hansen for Andruw Jones, Scot Shields and Orlando Cabrera? IF that was on the table, I would definitely expect it to make us a better team. Jones is a RH bigtime power hitter who plays elite defense at CF, and we get a high leverage arm for the pen and a starting SS.

[Pumpsie]

It seems like the predominant, and fairly vehement opinion is that the Sox should not move Manny on the basis that no trade will approach equal value and therefore the Sox become a weaker team for trading him.  That's a strong argument to be sure.  I haven't read the entire thread so I apologize if this has already been addressed- but considering that Manny will almost certainly not be extended beyond 08, isn't moving him on that basis alone a valid argument.  While a trade would probably weaken the team for the next year or two, wouldn't it be more damaging to the team to lose him after 08 with no compensation at all?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If the goal is to win another World Series, and correct me if I'm wrong but I think it is, then 2007 is a "go for it" kind of year. We have the potential of having a Schilling/Matsuzaka/Beckett/Wakefield starting rotation, with Schill definitely gone after 2007 and Wakefield quite possibly gone as well. It'll be Timlin's last year also. Lowell will be gone as will Mirabelli, if he isn't already gone before 2007. It will be well nigh impossible to replace Curt Schilling for 2008 and perhaps even 2009. Those kinds of pitchers just are not coming up for free agency any more. So, 2007 is the year and any trade or signing that weakens the team we now have for 2007 would be tantamount to decreasing our odds of winning it all in the foreseeable future.

Picking up Manny's options in this market isn't the big deal that it once was, so he's potentially under contract until 2010. If Theo is going to trade Manny, his principal concern must be to not hurt our chances in 2007.

Now, after 2007 it's a different story. Schill will be gone, and Manny might help get us that key replacement. Mats, Paps, and Beckett will all still be fairly young as will many of the pitchers on our 2008 staff, so prospects still a year or two away will be OK then as well. But Theo can't downgrade the team for 2007. In fact, he really has to improve it. Keeping Manny and signing Drew would do exactly that, which is why it's Plan A right now.

[SoxFanSince57]

It seems like the predominant, and fairly vehement opinion is that the Sox should not move Manny on the basis that no trade will approach equal value and therefore the Sox become a weaker team for trading him.  That's a strong argument to be sure.  I haven't read the entire thread so I apologize if this has already been addressed- but considering that Manny will almost certainly not be extended beyond 08, isn't moving him on that basis alone a valid argument.  While a trade would probably weaken the team for the next year or two, wouldn't it be more damaging to the team to lose him after 08 with no compensation at all?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why not wait until the winter of '07? If you traded him then he still has to want to go to the designated team and they more than likely will have reached agreement with Manny to exercise this 2 option years.

What makes it sensible to trade him now verses next winter given your agrument?

[Pumpsie]

"None of those trades come close to working."

What about the 3-way deal I proposed that moves Manny, Crisp and Hansen for Andruw Jones, Scot Shields and Orlando Cabrera? IF that was on the table, I would definitely expect it to make us a better team. Jones is a RH bigtime power hitter who plays elite defense at CF, and we get a high leverage arm for the pen and a starting SS.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You must be joking. Unless you believe that Andruw Jones can patrol all three outfield positions!

[SoxFanSince57]

You must be joking.  Unless you believe that Andruw Jones can patrol all three outfield positions!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think he is assuming Drew in RF and WMP in LF.

[bowiac]

Please,  Lock. The. Thread.

Pumpsie could not be more correct.

If dumping Manny fullfills "the long term plan" but does not make the 2007 team better than even discussing it is a horrible waste of time.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Manny. Kills. Us. Defensively. And. We. Don't. Have. A. Shortstop. Or. A. Closer.

Seriously, not to be too snippy, but people aren't talking about Manny as a salary dump, they're talking about trading him to shore up other glaring holes on the team.

If trading Manny can prevent Danys Baez from closing games for us in 2007, that's a huge step towards making the 2007 team better. For instance, if we could get Scot Shields and Juan Rivera for Manny, that has a good chance of being a win for the Sox on the field - that's without considering the beneficial salary implications of such a move.

If Manny is costing us 20 runs a year defensively(which is actually conservative - UZR, PMR, and Zone Rating all have him in the -30 to -40 area), then Juan Rivera is possibly a comparable overall talent for us, because we don't have the luxury of DHing Manny. Add in Scot Shields, and we're in business.

Would the Angels do Shields and Rivera for Manny? I don't know, but it's worth discussing.

[Pumpsie]

I think he is assuming Drew in RF and WMP in LF.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There is NO guarantee that we'll sign Drew but, if we do, it'll be for a ton of money. If WMP starts for us in 2007, then the team is in trouble. He should be the 4th outfielder for us next year. Plus, Andruw Jones is not a kid and is starting to show signs of slowing down and beginning the big downslide. Terrible idea.

[SoxFanSince57]

I would be more comfortable with this analysis if folks would use career numbers.

OCAB ---Career OBP .317; SGL .403 and AVG .269
Rivera---Career OBP .341; SLG .474 and AVG .291

I would also be interested in people's take on the politics of DHing Manny and Anderson. They both are against being relegated to that role. Clearly it would make waves. While it certainly makes baseball sense to DH them, I am not sure that the club house would be very comfortable.

[Noah]

If WMP starts for us in 2007, then the team is in trouble.

How would Wily Mo Pena's presence in the lineup singlehandedly destroy the team?

Edited by Noah, 22 November 2006 - 04:27 PM.

[The Gray Eagle]

"There is NO guarantee that we'll sign Drew but, if we do, it'll be for a ton of money."

And that is true whether Ramirez is here or not. And if we don't sign Drew then who is our RF in your scenario? Wily Mo? Apparently you feel he'd destroy the team as a LF but would be fine in Fenway's RF.

"Andruw Jones is not a kid and is starting to show signs of slowing down and beginning the big downslide."

THIS is your objection to Jones? Jones is five years younger than Manny Ramirez. He "declined" all the way down to a 129 OPS+ last year. He's played at least 153 games every season of his career. His combination of power, defense and speed makes him one of the best players in the game, and he'll likely stay that way longer than Ramirez, as he's FIVE years younger.


"Terrible idea."

And who is the closer and starting SS and RF in your keep Manny-at-all-costs scenario? Oh right there aren't any, we're going to just throw a ton of money at those holes I guess and sign whoever is out there. Hopefully. For however much it costs. At least we'll have young Manny instead of old Andruw, who's not a kid anymore. Great idea.

[5belongstoGeorge]

Manny. Kills. Us. Defensively. And. We. Don't. Have. A. Shortstop. Or. A. Closer.

Seriously, not to be too snippy, but people aren't talking about Manny as a salary dump, they're talking about trading him to shore up other glaring holes on the team.

If trading Manny can prevent Danys Baez from closing games for us in 2007, that's a huge step towards making the 2007 team better. For instance, if we could get Scot Shields and Juan Rivera for Manny, that has a good chance of being a win for the Sox on the field - that's without considering the beneficial salary implications of such a move.

If Manny is costing us 20 runs a year defensively(which is actually conservative - UZR, PMR, and Zone Rating all have him in the -30 to -40 area), then Juan Rivera is possibly a comparable overall talent for us, because we don't have the luxury of DHing Manny. Add in Scot Shields, and we're in business.

Would the Angels do Shields and Rivera for Manny? I don't know, but it's worth discussing.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Please, discuss whatever you wish... I'll pass.

If Juan Rivera is truly a comparable overall talent, then Theo and Lucky Larry should both be fired for not getting a deal like that (or something similar) done years ago.

Not to be snippy, but I think that the "Moneyball Model" breaks down when you are trying to quantify a talent like Manny. If the laws of physics change near a black hole, why can't Sabermetric principles be "warped" when applied to a talent like Manny?

[dcb46]

If the front office has concluded that due to Manny's desire to be gone it is no longer feasible to have Manny Ramirez on this team, it really doesn't matter whether they can get equal value or make themselves better in 2007. The message of last September could have been "I mean it, get me out of here, if you don't trade me I will simply not play (or play just enough to avoid suspension)." I have no inside or specific information that this is the case but a Manny work slowdown has been floated in the press as a possibility before. So I believe that it is at least a possibility that keeping Manny Ramirez is simply not perceived by the FO as a practical option.

If so, the debate isn't about whether the trade will make the Red Sox better, and we should get ready to lower our expectations about what we get in return. I think some of the expectations on this thread are too rosy even assuming Manny has not backed them into a corner. The recent inflation in prices means that Manny's contract may be more palatable to a few teams but it doesn't mean they are prepared to give up a lot of player value for the privilege of paying Manny the going rate. Of course if we eat a bunch of salary that might be the only way to get players of value in return - but in that case we are really just buying players, not getting value for Manny. (Not that there's anything wrong with it!)

And if you don't like the thread, why read it?

[NomarsFool]

Those "Let's trade a superstar for 3 mediocre players to fill holes" trades aren't very exciting. Manny is an incredibly unique player. Players that can perform at his level year in and year out are just incredibly hard to find. Many players will have a "Manny type" year once in awhile. But how many will do that for 8 years in a row? Let's face it, some members of the Boston press have been itching to get rid of Manny for 6 years now as a final repudiation of Dan Duquette. It's time for them to let their hatred go, and just enjoy one of the best hitters to ever wear a Red Sox uniform.

[xjack]

Nobody is equating Juan Rivera with Manny. And you're the only one talking, "Let's trade a superstar for 3 mediocre players to fill holes."

I'll say it again: you have to factor in the money. If the Sox were to trade Manny for Cabrera and Rivera (I bet they could get a low-A prospect too, but that's besides the point), that would save them $15 million a year at least over what they'd pay Manny and Lugo. For that much money they could probably get a good #2 catcher and sign Roger Clemens (assuming he's willing). It would also ensure that the Sox had plenty of cash to throw at Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter or Vernon Wells a year from now.

Finally, we have to at least consider the possibility that the Sox view moving Ramirez and his contract as a precursor to being able to sign Dice-K.

[WakefieldFan]

Those "Let's trade a superstar for 3 mediocre players to fill holes" trades aren't very exciting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thank goodness you're not part of the front office, or else we'd have Alfonso Soriano manning left field through 2014.

MLet's face it, some members of the Boston press have been itching to get rid of Manny for 6 years now as a final repudiation of Dan Duquette. It's time for them to let their hatred go, and just enjoy one of the best hitters to ever wear a Red Sox uniform.

It's not going to be much fun to "just enjoy" the next two years if Manny plays 100 games total. The fact is that Theo and his henchmen have to make an informed decision based on the very likely scenario that these recurring health problems will worsen with age. Of course Manny's one of the best hitters in history, but replacing him with a non-elite player that can start 150 games and play decent defense may turn out to be more valuable to the team. Enter the Juan Rivera possibility.

[SoxFanSince57]

I'll say it again: you have to factor in the money. If the Sox were to trade Manny for Cabrera and Rivera (I bet they could get a low-A prospect too, but that's besides the point), that would save them $15 million a year at least over what they'd pay Manny and Lugo. For that much money they could probably get a good #2 catcher and sign Roger Clemens (assuming he's willing). It would also ensure that the Sox had plenty of cash to throw at Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter or Vernon Wells a year from now.

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This seems like an awful amount of speculation about the budget of the Red Sox and what they can afford and what they can't.

I have heard no one from the FO raise a concern about the Sox’ financial ability to sign Lugo, Drew and Clemens. There has been no word from the Sox that Manny's contract going forward is limiting their ability to sign these players.

Finally, we have to at least consider the possibility that the Sox view moving Ramirez and his contract as a precursor to being able to sign Dice-K.

I really, really hope that the Sox didn't shell out 51M to talk to Datsusaka without the financial means to ink him to a contract. That would be one of the biggest business blunders of all time.

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 22 November 2006 - 06:06 PM.

[xjack]

That would be one of the biggest business blunders of all time.

Uh, given that there's zero penalty for not signing him, I could probably come up about 1,000 "blunders" bigger.

[SoxFanSince57]

Uh, given that there's zero penalty for not signing him, I could probably come up about 1,000 "blunders" bigger.

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You mean other than totally screwing their corporate strategy of entering the Japanese market?

[xjack]

Please explain in detail how this would have "screwed" their corporate strategy in Japan?

Or is this same way they supposedly ruined their reputation in Japan four years ago by claiming Kevin Millar off waivers?

Edited by xjack, 22 November 2006 - 06:19 PM.

[NWsoxophile]

Why not wait until the winter of '07?  If you traded him then he still has to want to go to the designated team and they more than likely will have reached agreement with Manny to exercise this 2 option years.

What makes it sensible to trade him now verses next winter given your agrument?

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My argument isn't that we should trade Manny, but that moving him is not the sheer insanity that some seem to think. There are some pretty reasonable arguments to be made for moving him, particularly the one I cited in my post.

As to why is it more sensible to move him now as opposed to next offseason- consider that my point is that the Sox will in all likelihood not pick up his option after 2008, and that it makes no since to lose Manny at that point for nothing. If the FO is operating from that point of view, there must be concerns that Manny's knee issues or any statistical decline (which if not projected, cannot be entirely discounted for an outfielder who will turn 35 during the season) will have a dramatic negative effect on his trade value.

Pumpsie's argument that 2007 is a "go for it" year given Matszuzaka, and J.D. Drew signing (and therefore Manny has to stay), is a bit shaky. This team is better with Daisuke Matsuzaka and Drew, but they still would need several major additions to the bullpen before they could be considered contenders. As of today, there's no closer, no set up man, in fact there's not much, period. Unless they can put together a legitimate bullpen in the coming months, I'm not sure it matters whether Manny is in Boston or not. Given the track record in constructing bullpens over the past couple of years, and what seems to be available out there, you'd have to be skeptical about the 2007 team, Manny, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Drew, or no. Obviously, the offseason has barely begun to shake out....

Edited by NWsoxophile, 22 November 2006 - 06:51 PM.