607 replies to this topic

[SoxFanSince57]

I agree that Morales is a project defensively--point taken.

But to say "I agree, in 4 years he [Morales] may be the better hitter" is laughable. You are very smart and knowledgeable, but IMO this argument doesn't pass the smell test for me. Morales is and will be a MUCH better hitter than Youks. Morales has knocked the sh** out of the ball at every level of Cuban and minor league baseball. He is the real deal when it comes to hitting--switch hitting.

But, back to my point. Even if I screwed up in your mind with the players I threw out there for a proposed trade for Manny, my point still stands. First, the Sox should get two plus, plus AAA players in any deal in a trade with the Angels. Second, they should be able to get Scott Shields.

Overall, I am saying don't even think about trading Manny unless the trading partner will give us real talent--and given the Angels that talent needs to come from their AAA club. And as I have said I don't see the Angels for numerous reasons as a likely trading partner with the Sox.

[SoxFanPJ]

If the Rangers are interested but don't want to give up Teixeira or Young, but would be willing to give up Otsuka, we might be able to build a deal but it wouldn't be easy for the Sox to get value.

Arias- is a SS prospect who is still very young (21) and while according to BA he is very good defensively he doesn't seem to have much of a stick at this point.

Botts- not really young enough to be a prospect anymore, but a power hitting 1B/OF type.

Volquez, Diamond and Danks. Their top 3 pitching prospects.

Would Otuska, Botts and one of the DVD trio make sense for both teams?

[Nomars Last Twitch]

From yeterday:

http://www.theglobea.../TPStory/Sports

BASEBALL: BLUE JAYS

Wells waits for contract talks
Team wants to address pitching concerns before any discussions, centre fielder says
JEFF BLAIR

BASEBALL REPORTER

Vernon Wells says he has been told the Toronto Blue Jays first want to iron out their pitching issues before beginning detailed talks on a contract extension that would keep the outfielder with the team beyond the 2007 season

The Blue Jays want to keep Wells.

Everyone else they have on their "list" (Arod, Andruw) has both a no-trade clause and a steadfast unwillingness to waive it.

The Angels, if they feel that they need to make a big move for offense this year, may not have any choice but to try to deal for Manny.

Edited by Nomars Last Twitch, 22 November 2006 - 02:24 AM.

[templeUsox]

If you guys liked Edes' article than you'll lovvve today's Globe article. I'm not going to tell you who wrote it, i'll just give you the lead-in:

Rats. I was pretty sure Manny Ramírez was going to win the MVP award. Too bad he was topped by winner Justin Morneau, runner-up Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, and an ensemble cast of American League worthies.

Edited by templeUsox, 22 November 2006 - 03:19 AM.

[Vermonter At Large]

If you guys liked Edes' article than you'll lovvve today's Globe article.  I'm not going to tell you who wrote it, i'll just give you the lead-in:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wow, that's a tour-de-force piece by the CHB. Thought-provoking, well-researched, well written ... The power of the man's insight is legendary. The Globe sports editor must be proud. I really like the aspect of the great CHB atop the mountain, sharing his wisdom with such eloquence via megaphone that resonates across every rill and valley of Red Sox Nation.

I'll bet he put in maybe 15 minutes putting that piece together, including the ten minutes it took him to look up the word "lugubrious" in the dictionary. He no longer even rates categorization as an asshole - just a small carbuncle on our collective ass that itches and hurts enough when we sit down to let us know its there.

Edited by Vermonter At Large, 22 November 2006 - 06:10 AM.

[someoneanywhere]

I do wonder why sometimes the guy can't put down the bludgeon. Seriously. There are all sorts of rational reasons to consider moving Manny now: his relatively affordability, given the market; a revved-up demand in the market; a chance perhaps not just to get equal value but to come out a little ahead.

Not that I agree with any of them; my own view remains the same as last year and the year before -- breaking up that twosome, now, would be difficult to overcome. (Yet, at the same time, the demand is greater; and, as a proponent of the adage that it's best to move a star a year too early rather than a year too late, I have softened a little.)

Anyway, instead of insight -- and instead of a case made based on current circumstances and forces, as we would have seen from someone like Ryan -- we get the same bludgeon he's been weilding for three years. If I wasn't too lazy, I'd try to pull up the CHB piece from last year and the year before. I guarantee you they are all the same thing.

Shoot, even Ann Landers got in trouble for recycling.

Edited by someoneanywhere, 22 November 2006 - 07:51 AM.

[BrooklynDog45]

If the Rangers are interested but don't want to give up Teixeira or Young, but would be willing to give up Otsuka, we might be able to build a deal but it wouldn't be easy for the Sox to get value.

Arias- is a SS prospect who is still very young (21) and while according to BA he is very good defensively he doesn't seem to have much of a stick at this point. 

Botts- not really young enough to be a prospect anymore, but a power hitting 1B/OF type.

Volquez, Diamond and Danks.  Their top 3 pitching prospects.

Would Otuska, Botts and one of the DVD trio make sense for both teams?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No Teixeira or Young, then no deal. If the Sox trade Manny they need offensive player(s) to contribute in 2007. Otsuka would be a nice piece but by no means a starting point. Teixeira or Young are the only starting points on Texas. With money being thrown around in the FA market Manny's contract is an asset not a hinderance. With one option year picked up 3yrs $57mil for Manny's production is more than fair. And just wait to Carlos Lee signs. Please!!! Bargain Rameriz will be his new nickname.

[smastroyin]

Manny's contract isn't necessarily a problem anymore, but his inability to play the field is definitely. It is starting to pop up in every trade rumor. In the eyes of opposing teams, he is essentially a DH. That doesn't really help his trade value.

There is also his whole missing a lot of time and his characterization as a malcontent and low effort to get on the field player. Compare this to Sheffield who at least has a reputation of being a hard-nosed player, even if all he ever does is complain about injuries, he is usually on the field. He doesn't have a reputation of being soft. I don't think Manny is soft, either, but that is the story you get from the press and the Red Sox haven't done too much to put forward a different story. This is where it backfires for the Red Sox to have allowed so much negative press about Manny, IMO.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

There is also his whole missing a lot of time and his characterization as a malcontent and low effort to get on the field player.  Compare this to Sheffield who at least has a reputation of being a hard-nosed player, even if all he ever does is complain about injuries, he is usually on the field.  He doesn't have a reputation of being soft.  I don't think Manny is soft, either, but that is the story you get from the press and the Red Sox haven't done too much to put forward a different story.  This is where it backfires for the Red Sox to have allowed so much negative press about Manny, IMO.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're exactly right about the press, which is highlighted by the following: Over the last five years, Manny has appeared in 708 games, Sheffield in 637. Manny has 3,068 plate appearences in that time, Sheffield 2,782.

[TheoShmeo]

This is where it backfires for the Red Sox to have allowed so much negative press about Manny, IMO.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You might be right, but have the Sox really "allowed" negative press coverage. It seems to me that there has been very little negative coming out of the Sox and Manny's teammnates to feed the press on this. Even the CHB admits that no one will say anything negative about Manny for fear of "losing" him. And I'm not sure how much the Sox can do to prevent writers like Callahan and Shaughnnessy (not that I equate them!) from putting out stories like the ones that appeared the last few days. On the other hand, and to your point, it occurred to me that the Sox may have been complicit in these articles in an effort to soften up the public to a potential trade that brings back less than full value for Manny, though I cannot pinpoint anything in either article that was new or seemed like it was fed to either author.

[dauber23]

I know CHB is not popular on this board, but, darn it, Manny did quit on the team last year (as well as other times in past seasons). I don't blame Tito for not wanting to manage guys like Manny, and I have no doubt many players would be disgusted with a teammate who takes the last 6 weeks of the season off.

But on the other hand, I agree that articles like this hurt Manny's trade value (who would willingly want to trade for a quiter and malcontent), and thus make it less likely the Sox will be able to move him. But otherwise, I thought CHB was dead on, even if he spent only 15 minutes writing the piece. It doesn't take long to research Manny's crappy attitude. He has driven himself out of town.

[smastroyin]

You might be right, but have the Sox really "allowed" negative press coverage.  It seems to me that there has been very little negative coming out of the Sox and Manny's teammnates to feed the press on this.  Even the CHB admits that no one will say anything negative about Manny for fear of "losing" him.  And I'm not sure how much the Sox can do to prevent writers like Callahan and Shaughnnessy (not that I equate them!) from putting out stories like the ones that appeared the last few days.  On the other hand, and to your point, it occurred to me that the Sox may have been complicit in these articles in an effort to soften up the public to a potential trade that brings back less than full value for Manny, though I cannot pinpoint anything in either article that was new or seemed like it was fed to either author.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm talking about the entire body of work. Manny has been a pincushion in these parts for the better part of 4 years, ever since he took "too much time" coming back from the broken finger in 2002. It would have been nice, however, if someone (Tito, hello? this is part of your job!) just came out and said "here is what Manny's injury is and here is why we don't think it makes sense to rush him back." And do it over and over again everytime a smear article is written.

KMG, you are exactly right about the relative durability as a fact. But there is this air that Manny's injuries aren't exactly legitimate. Again, for my part, I don't believe it, but even if an opposing team doesn't believe it, it can be used as a negotiating point. "Hey, Manny doesn't even want to play for you anymore, why should I give up Erick Aybar? you can have Orlando Cabrera and I'm doing you a favor taking your malcontent and you know it." or some such.

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

But on the other hand, I agree that articles like this hurt Manny's trade value (who would willingly want to trade for a quiter and malcontent), and thus make it less likely the Sox will be able to move him.

Seriously? Do you really think that a GM who was about to make a trade would actually be swayed by something a columnist wrote? Please tell me you're joking.

[dig2101]

I agree that Morales is a project defensively--point taken.

But to say "I agree, in 4 years he [Morales] may be the better hitter" is laughable.  You are very smart and knowledgeable, but IMO this argument doesn't pass the smell test for me.  Morales is and will be a MUCH better hitter than Youks.  Morales has knocked the sh** out of the ball at every level of Cuban and minor league baseball.  He is the real deal when it comes to hitting--switch hitting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Salt Lake City is a big time hitters park (114 park factor according to Dan Szymborski) in the PCL, an offensive league (4.83 runs/game vs 4.17 in the IL). His 880 OPS there isn't so impressive -- Szymborski's MLE translation has Morales at .301 OBP, .406 SLG. His high-A and AA stats from 2005 translate to 793 and 773 OPS respectively (according to BP), given his level and parks. You really have to put his ML stats in context.

Certainly he has room to develop, but I don't think it's clear that he's certain to ever be better than Youk as a 1B, much less if Youk moves across the diamond and gives you average defense at 3B.

[smastroyin]

Seriously? Do you really think that a GM who was about to make a trade would actually be swayed by something a columnist wrote? Please tell me you're joking.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Right, it's not the stupid columnist. It's the fact that I get a distinct air from Larry and Tito that they also think Manny is a problem. And if those guys believe it, then you better believe that every opposing GM is going to try to use that thought to get the upper hand in a negotiation.

For my part, I think Manny is a fine player. I also think that this organization has allowed a reputation of him being a quitter become conventional wisdom. What their motivation for that is, I have no idea. Or maybe they are too busy trying to figure out how to get the Sox logo onto every consumer product in New England and not spending enough time marketing their own players outside of Tek and Papi.

[kwa1430]

Is it remotely possible to trade Manny to Angels for Shields, Santana and a top level prospect and then make a trade for Andruw Jones? The addition of Santana might make a Buchholz or Bowden expendable and Jones now replaces the bat you lose in Manny.

[Clears Cleaver]

I hate this thread. Manny quit on the team as much as the front office quit on the team last year. Whatever, if this team is going to win in 2007 then it needs to have Manny Ramirez hitting fourth. Somehow, Manny and his attitude stepped up to be the MVP of the World Series. He and Papi are the only guys who can consistently hit elite pitching. There is no analysis that needs to be done, there is no trade out there that makes the team better in 2007 or probably even 2008 (the window to win is open now with Schilling). Getting a middle of the pack closer, whose performance is almost impossible to project becasue of the volatility of short relievers, as a centerpiece for Manny is asinine. And there are no bats on the market to replace what Manny brings to the lineup. Please remember, the Red Sox had exactly two elite hitters and seven guys who were average or slightly better than average. Eliminting one of the two elite hitters makes this lineup incredibly mediocre.

[dauber23]

Right, it's not the stupid columnist.  It's the fact that I get a distinct air from Larry and Tito that they also think Manny is a problem.  And if those guys believe it, then you better believe that every opposing GM is going to try to use that thought to get the upper hand in a negotiation. 

For my part, I think Manny is a fine player.  I also think that this organization has allowed a reputation of him being a quitter become conventional wisdom.  What their motivation for that is, I have no idea.  Or maybe they are too busy trying to figure out how to get the Sox logo onto every consumer product in New England and not spending enough time marketing their own players outside of Tek and Papi.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Does Manny only have a reputation of being a quitter? Or does he actually quit on his team sometimes?

Maybe I was not watching carefully enough late last season; perhaps I missed Manny playing his butt off to try to help his team win games. Yes?

If one were his manager, he might well love the numbers Manny puts up, but he would also have to hate Manny's childish behavior and his tendency to quit when he is not perfectly happy.

I am not trying to trash Manny here. I actually like him, and I understand that he has accomplished a lot in his years with the Sox. But I think he does quit on his team from time to time. And that is not acceptable and it is not professional.

If he has good value in the trade market now, it is time to move him.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I know CHB is not popular on this board, but, darn it, Manny did quit on the team last year (as well as other times in past seasons). I don't blame Tito for not wanting to manage guys like Manny, and I have no doubt many players would be disgusted with a teammate who takes the last 6 weeks of the season off.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's only if you make the assumption that his knee wasn't really injured.

[TheoShmeo]

I'm talking about the entire body of work.  Manny has been a pincushion in these parts for the better part of 4 years, ever since he took "too much time" coming back from the broken finger in 2002.  It would have been nice, however, if someone (Tito, hello?  this is part of your job!) just came out and said "here is what Manny's injury is and here is why we don't think it makes sense to rush him back."  And do it over and over again everytime a smear article is written. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

On the other hand, Tito seemed to go out of his way to portray Manny's "need" to miss the All Star game as legitimate, whether it was legitimate or not. I agree that Tito et al could have done more in the past to insulate Manny, but I thought that he was pretty good in that regard last year. IF Manny was dogging it after the Yankees series or, better stated, IF a lot of the people in that clubhouse thought that he was, it would have been tough to stay quiet, and it appears that they did.

I also agree with Clears Cleaver that there are very few scenarios now where they are better without Manny. If they had traded Manny for a combination of players, prospects and assumption of his contract, and then turned around and used the freed up salary to sign Soriano or a big bat acquired in a follow-on trade, I might disagree. But, as of now, it seems unlikely that they'll be able to replenish the line-up sufficiently if they trade Manny, even if they sign Drew to play RF and bat 5th.

[exGloucester]

--------------------
Manny did quit on the team last year (as well as other times in past seasons).
--------------------

Or maybe:

After behaving like a god at the plate during the five-game massacre against the Yanks, his knee was really hurting - neither you nor I have first-hand insight on that one - at the same time the rest of the Sox were taking a one-way express trip to Nowheresville - the latter a point I think we can agree on - and it made some sense to let the guy rest his injury. The guy seemed visibly hampered by his knee.

--------------------------
I don't blame Tito for not wanting to manage guys like Manny
--------------------------

Or maybe:

It's reasonable to think Tito should be able to manage a quirky top-shelf performer. Many of us do that every day in the real world, and it's not exactly rocket science.

The Manny story can always cut both ways.

[irinmike]

Every year we go through this same crap about Manny. I don't care a bit if he didn't play in the last six weeks. The RS were done, stick a fork in them, at that time. Play the youngsters and see who is almost ready to contribute in 07, and get others some much needed major league experience, which is exactly what the RS did. Manny is NOT getting any younger and he didn't need to be out there banging around on his bum leg during meaningless games. The old, "he quit on his team" high school rah rah crap does not apply here. He is a professional and one who will play when he needs to play to help the team win. Here is hoping he will be in left field on opening day for the RS in April of 07!

[PedroKsBambino]

The impact of the media coverage on Manny's trade value is an interesting one.

I don't think its zero...most teams in baseball have to worry about selling tickets and thus, Manny's image does impact his value for the acquiring team. Pretty much the only team who can ignore this is the Red Sox, who worry about it anyway. I don't think it has a huge impact, but it does matter some. Getting Manny will still sell tickets on net in most places, but less than if he had a different public rep.

Also, at this point, there's a lot guys who know first-hand what he's like as a teammate. He has former managers in Sea and LA and basically Phi, former front-office guys in AZ, and I'm sure a dozen former coaches who are somewhere still. Plus all the teammates who are sprinkled around. So whether those guys are privately saying "it's all hype, he's a fine teammate" or "he's a pain, don't bother" I don't really know (and we aren't seeing reported) but the 'real' info is very likely out there.

The media stuff also makes the Sox more interested in moving him, I believe. It's not a huge thing, i.e. it's worth maybe 5% of his value or less to the Sox to get rid of the near-constant distraction of Manny stories. But I can believe that Tito and Theo are tired of the endless trade requests and stuff and the stories and media questions of other players that go along with it.

Some set of Sox FO people clearly would be happier if Manny were gone. It's hard not to conclude that Theo is amongst them, since he's had Manny on the market nearly 100% of the time he's been in the job. There's every reason to think LL and JWH are in that boat too. But to their credit, they keep waiting for the right deal, and I think at some level that annoys some of the media guys...certainly, Edes cracked in September on this point.

[yecul]

Fans will always look for a reason that a team fails and the star player often takes a fall. Manny's contract plays against him here too.

The media manipulates the fans as best they can by presenting him as a dog. They keep drawing from the well because it works every time and they're lazy. The same story is written by 5 different guys 30 times throughout the year. They get their copy done, they get a couple gets spots on radio and TV. Sports media is akin to gossip columnists. No one takes it seriously and you can do whatever you want without consequences.

If Boston had wanted to trade Manny he'd be gone already a la Carl Everett. They are clearly looking for value. If the value isn't there and the contingency plans don't materialize then I don't expect a move. This is the season when his value should be at its peak. Just seems that all the parts haven't fallen into place. The offseason when Vlad was available via free agency was really the time to make the transition.

Edit -- To summarize, I think the media are basically lazy and stupid. However, the fans that they're writing for are clearly stupider on many different levels. Casual following also leads to a lesser understanding of the whole picture making them succeptable to whatever story happens to fall in front of them on any given day.

Edited by yecul, 22 November 2006 - 09:42 AM.

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Does Manny only have a reputation of being a quitter? Or does he actually quit on his team sometimes? Maybe I was not watching carefully enough late last season; perhaps I missed Manny playing his butt off to try to help his team win games. Yes?

I think that the main question that you should ask is whether Manny was hurt at the end of last year. If he was, then by the time the Sox were swept by the Yanks, what really was the point of him hurting himself even more by playing "meaningless" games?

Look at it this way, Manny saw what happened when Keith Foulke put his entire career on the line by literally pitching his arm off in October of 2004. What did it get him? Boos, cat-calls, people saying that he sucked, hated baseball, etc. If you were Manny Ramirez, why would you want that crap? Especially, if you're going to get majorly injured.

If one were his manager, he might well love the numbers Manny puts up, but he would also have to hate Manny's childish behavior and his tendency to quit when he is not perfectly happy.

Tito isn't stupid, I would be willing to bet that he'd much prefer to have a lineup of Mannys than a lineup of "gamers" like Trot Nixon. Why? Becuase he'd win more. And if he wins more, he has another year of employment. That being said, from what I've read, no one works harder than Manny Ramirez when it comes to the game of baseball (before the game starts).

There are tons of examples, but people don't want to hear that. They just want to read about lazy Manny and get him gone. When he is gone, you people are going to be hugely sorry. And to think that if Manny leaves, there will be peace and tranquility in Sox nation is absurd. The fickle finger of the press will be ready to poke at someone else, maybe Schilling, maybe Ortiz, maybe Youkilis. But it will happen ... that's what the media and the fans of this team do.

Personally, I'd rather have the guy with the ungodly numbers taking "time off" now and again, rather than someone with half of his production playing his ass off. And BTW, we're never going to get fair trade value for him, so it's not going to be worth it, whomever we get.

[smastroyin]

Just to beat my drum again, another way the Sox could really have helped themselves in terms of Manny's short and long term value to them, is to just suck it up and put David Ortiz in the field a bit more.

Since Tito has arrived, Manny has been almost exclusively a LF. I don't think his legs can handle that any more. He needs some time off and some DH time. I know Ortiz is a health risk and probably a defensive liability, but I think the he and the Sox can probably handle him playing 50 games in the field over the course of the year. That's interleague plus once a week or so in the field. That once a week that you can give Manny the DH job might be the difference in his hamstring tweaking. I certainly can't say for sure, but it seems odd that they are so steadfast in this model of Ortiz can only DH except in national league parks.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I don't know, look at how well Ortiz has hit since becoming a full time DH. Is that a coincidence? It certainly might be, but maybe not. It's not like the Sox have had great options to put in LF besides Manny, have they? (Now that is a different problem, I agree).

[Rudy Pemberton]

I think that the main question that you should ask is whether Manny was hurt at the end of last year. If he was, then by the time the Sox were swept by the Yanks, what really was the point of him hurting himself even more by playing "meaningless" games?

I think it depends to what extent he was hurt and whether playing was likely to exacerbate the injury. There were certainly rumblings that he didn't want to play, for whatever reason, and the team didn't really defend him much.

Who knows how true it is but these stories have come up before (and I certainly don't think the Sox are blameless), and the timing was odd.

I don't believe the season was over after the Yankee sweep (although I felt so at the time), but a lot of guys were dinged up. What was the point of any of them playing in meaningless games? I don't know, really.

Is Manny healthy now?

[Rough Carrigan]

Just to beat my drum again, another way the Sox could really have helped themselves in terms of Manny's short and long term value to them, is to just suck it up and put David Ortiz in the field a bit more.

Since Tito has arrived, Manny has been almost exclusively a LF.  I don't think his legs can handle that any more.  He needs some time off and some DH time.  I know Ortiz is a health risk and probably a defensive liability, but I think the he and the Sox can probably handle him playing 50 games in the field over the course of the year.  That's interleague plus once a week or so in the field.  That once a week that you can give Manny the DH job might be the difference in his hamstring tweaking.  I certainly can't say for sure, but it seems odd that they are so steadfast in this model of Ortiz can only DH except in national league parks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The other positive aspect of putting Ortiz at first a few times is days off for Youkilis or, if you move Youks over to third, for Lowell. In the dog days of August, Lowell couldn't hit the ball 200 feet; he was absolutely useless at the plate. Youks wore down too.

[Carlos Cowart]

It would have been nice, however, if someone (Tito, hello? this is part of your job!) just came out and said "here is what Manny's injury is and here is why we don't think it makes sense to rush him back." And do it over and over again everytime a smear article is written.

They do - particularly Tito - every time. And every time Francona explains a Manny issue to the press they roll their collective eyes and snicker because they’ve already made up their minds on the guy. And if they get an explanation that doesn’t fit what they want to believe, they discount it as spin – well of course they’re going to say his knee is really hurt. I suspect if Francona said Manny was a pain in the ass who fakes injuries, they’d be happy to believe (and print) that.

Here's what Tito had to say about Manny’s knee at the end of the year, complete with advice to rest him from the team doctor.

So yeah, someone did come out and say "here is what Manny's injury is and here is why we don't think it makes sense to rush him back." And the press all heard it. But the perception is that Manny quit on his team because that’s the story they decided to go with instead.

[glennhoffmania]

Since Tito has arrived, Manny has been almost exclusively a LF.  I don't think his legs can handle that any more.  He needs some time off and some DH time.  I know Ortiz is a health risk and probably a defensive liability, but I think the he and the Sox can probably handle him playing 50 games in the field over the course of the year.  That's interleague plus once a week or so in the field.  That once a week that you can give Manny the DH job might be the difference in his hamstring tweaking.  I certainly can't say for sure, but it seems odd that they are so steadfast in this model of Ortiz can only DH except in national league parks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I completely agree. It wouldn't quite be 50 games per year but they should have started doing this last year. The downgrade defensively at 1B could be offset by an upgrade defensively in LF (assuming the 4th OF is better than Manny). They could also use this swap as a way to give Youks or Lowell a day off per week, which may allow them to be more rested during the second half. With the options they have to move guys around, there is absolutely no reason to have Manny play 150 games in LF this year.

Edited by glennhoffmania, 22 November 2006 - 10:16 AM.

[5belongstoGeorge]

So has this thread devolved from "trade Manny" to "Manny is lazy" and "Manny isn't nice to Tito"?

If Manny remains on the Red Sox (and he MUST!) and Tito starts bitching about him publically for whatever reason, real or imagined, I hope John Henry takes away Tito's 2004 ring, kicks him in his prosthetic knee (or whatever body part that was), and trades him away to be Joe Torre's bench coach.

I can't even read some of the posts... thank goodness for the sanity of Smastroyin and JMOH.

1. Manny is the best hitter the Red Sox have had since Ted. All he has done since coming to the Red Sox is show up at the ballpark and mash day after day and year aftter year.
2. I wonder how Yaz would have been treated if he was Domincan?

And BTW, we're never going to get fair trade value for him, so it's not going to be worth it, whomever we get.

I am reminded of a quote from Big Papi when he was asked about who would hit behind him if they traded Manny. To paraphrase; "Is Pujols available?"

[Bongorific]

I hate this thread. Manny quit on the team as much as the front office quit on the team last year. Whatever, if this team is going to win in 2007 then it needs to have Manny Ramirez hitting fourth. Somehow, Manny and his attitude stepped up to be the MVP of the World Series. He and Papi are the only guys who can consistently hit elite pitching. There is no analysis that needs to be done, there is no trade out there that makes the team better in 2007 or probably even 2008 (the window to win is open now with Schilling). Getting a middle of the pack closer, whose performance is almost impossible to project becasue of the volatility of short relievers, as a centerpiece for Manny is asinine. And there are no bats on the market to replace what Manny brings to the lineup. Please remember, the Red Sox had exactly two elite hitters and seven guys who were average or slightly better than average. Eliminting one of the two elite hitters makes this lineup incredibly mediocre.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm totally onboard with CC. Have we forgot how flat this offense was for significant stretches last season? Similarly to last off-season, I have yet to see a trade proposal that produces a better Sox team. I understand what the logic used to be when Manny's contract seemed burdensome: line up a trade, or put him on waivers, to free up money that can redistributed over several players that will collectively produce more than Manny alone. However, that logic stopped working in 2003. The money saved on Manny cannot be used on FAs to make this team better. The types of players needed to replace Manny's production or not on the free agent market. Trade for bullpen help and sign Drew? No thanks.

I also think CC brings up a great point: Manny and Ortiz can hit elite pitching. Maybe someone more versed in sabermetrics can explain this to a novice such as myself, but do any of the frequently quoted statistics accurately convey this? Let's use Win Shares as an example. I think one theory used when Manny was put on waivers was to use the money saved to sign players that would collectively have a higher Win Share total than Manny alone. However, this doesn't appear to take into account that players, such as Manny/Ortiz are among a select few that can possibly produce off of a Santana, Liriano, or Bonderman in the playoffs. This is why I am skeptical of the Manny trade proposals. The Nomar trade was paletable, because the team needed players with specific skills for the playoff run. Additionally, between Manny, Ortiz, Tek, Damon, Trot, Mueller, the Sox had ample offense. However, the Sox current lineup is much weaker than 2003's. Breaking up Ortiz and Manny would be near impossible to replace.

[Carlos Cowart]

From lurker, dolfanmark:


On last week's episode of the Red Sox Hot Stove Report, Jerry Remy discussed the "Manny injury" situation. Remy said that Manny was legitimately hurting. Remy also said that when it came to playing in September, there was stubbornness on both sides. Remy said that he thought that Manny was willing to DH in September, but the Red Sox insisted that he would not be back in the lineup until he could play LF. It was pretty clear that he felt both sides shared some blame for what happened in the last 6 weeks.

Also, here's a link to a May 10th blog entry by the Herald's Jeff Horrigan, citing a grinding sensation in Manny's knee.

http://www.bostonher...Sox/?m=20060510

Isn't it possible that Manny did in fact play hurt most of the season? And that he really aggravated the condition during a 5 game series when had to run the bases 19 times and chase down an inordinate amount of line drives being drilled all over Fenway park by Yankee batters?

Thanks,
Mark

Edited by Carlos Cowart, 22 November 2006 - 10:46 AM.

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Have we forgot how flat this offense was for significant stretches last season? Similarly to last off-season, I have yet to see a trade proposal that produces a better Sox team.

Exactly, 100% correct.

If you trade Manny, this is exactly how 2007 will go:

The Sox will score a bunch of runs in April and May and we'll all think that they're a bonafied playoff team.

Then they will score a little bit less in June and July and we'll think that they need the All-Star break to "recharge their batteries."

In August, they will completely shit the bed as guys like Youk and Lowell and Lugo (or whomever) completely hit a wall and stop producing. Next thing you know, it's September and we're 5 behind the Yanks, we're 4 behind the wild card leader and we're all wondering why David Ortiz can't carry this team by himself (hint ... it's because he's lazy!) or why Tito is suddenly stupid.

But, the good thing is that we got that rotten Manny Ramirez and his "ho-hum" attitude out of town. Viva la third place!

[bowiac]

If you trade Manny, this is exactly how 2007 will go:

The Sox will score a bunch of runs in April and May and we'll all think that they're a bonafied playoff team.

Then they will score a little bit less in June and July and we'll think that they need the All-Star break to "recharge their batteries."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why do you think we'll stop hitting in June/July? Or alternatively, why do you think we will hit very well in April/May without Manny?

[Bowlerman9]

Why do you think we'll stop hitting in June/July? Or alternatively, why do you think we will hit very well in April/May without Manny?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Because we do every year, and because we do every year.

We always come out hot and then faulter a bit around the break when players start to wear down.

It's a Red Sox tradition.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

1. Manny is the best hitter the Red Sox have had since Ted. All he has done since coming to the Red Sox is show up at the ballpark and mash day after day and year aftter year.
2. I wonder how Yaz would have been treated if he was Domincan?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's so funny to think about the treatment Manny gets from the Boston media and to then remember how Williams was cruxified on a regular basis by the "knights of the keyboard." Yaz too had a big target on his back after he failed to win another triple crown (Oh, the humanity!). But now these guys are lionized as the greatest Sox players of all time.

Almost everything Manny does has a parallel with Williams. Great hitters who didn't care about fielding. Quirky personalities who were unwilling to play the game by the rules set down by the local mediots. A perception that they put their own game ahead of the success of the team. Difficult to manage, etc... etc... etc...

Imagine the 800 page threads we'd have here today entitled "Should we trade Williams for Dimaggio?"

30 years from now, will Manny be regarded as one of the all-time greats, a vital member of the one Sox team to win it all, or a sourpuss who quit on the team? Will his death in 2050 or thereabouts be greated with the same outpouring of memories as Teddy Ballgame's?

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Thanks bowlerman, you're exactly right.

Bowiac, I can just about set my watch to a so-so Red Sox team. In the beginning of the season there will be a couple of games where they win by the skin of their teeth, a few come-free-behinders that will have you thinking that this "might just be a decent team", and there may even be a few laughers.

Then summer will hit and there will be a couple of collapses, those come-from-behinders will be fewer and far between and the Sox' water will find it's level.

In an absolutely disaster of a season, not only will the water find it's level, but it'll get lower. There will be a couple of absolute punch-in-the-gut games, the sniping in the clubhouse will get louder, a huge off the field distraction is set off and next thing you know, the Sox are fighting the Orioles and DRays for third place.

Baseball is a long haul, the better players you have, the easier that haul is. It's really just that simple. You don't need to be Bill James or Theo Epstein to realize this. If you trade or let go of one of your great players, you better get a great player back. The Sox are not getting a great player in return for Ramirez (maybe they'll get Tejada, but I'm not 10% sold on him), so keep him.

I'm not worried that the Red Sox FO doesn't understand this, I'm just worried that they're so freaked out about bad PR that they'd trade Manny for 60 cents on the dollar just to shut the press up. If they do that, I really have to start wondering about Theo's baseball acumen.

Edited by John Marzano Olympic Hero, 22 November 2006 - 11:12 AM.

[Sportsbstn]

I'm not worried that the Red Sox FO doesn't understand this, I'm just worried that they're so freaked out about bad PR that they'd trade Manny for 60 cents on the dollar just to shut the press up. If they do that, I really have to start wondering about Theo's baseball acumen.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If the Red Sox were going to trade Manny for 60 cents on the dollar I have the feeling that last year they had the chance to do it, and declined. Manny isnt going for 60 cents on the dollar this year, especially with the exploding contracts.

As for the so-so team, Theo needs to figure out how to construct a bullpen as it is by far his weakest point. The move to try to set the rotations with young arms is a good one, pitching always wins in the end and the Sox need to add more pitching depth even if/when Matsuzaka is signed. Manny isnt the problem.

[OCD SS]

I'm not worried that the Red Sox FO doesn't understand this, I'm just worried that they're so freaked out about bad PR that they'd trade Manny for 60 cents on the dollar just to shut the press up. If they do that, I really have to start wondering about Theo's baseball acumen.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If they were going to trade Manny for $.60 on the dollar, they would've by now; they've probably had several opportunities. The fact that they haven't indicates to me that they're looking for full value.

I find it interesting that everyone here can accurately predict the Sox offensive output next year, and that Manny is the lone player defending the ramparts against such a collapse. How did those mfy teams of the late '90's manage to be so sucsessful without Manny Ramirez? It's unthinkable, really...

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I find it interesting that everyone here can accurately predict the Sox offensive output next year, and that Manny is the lone player defending the ramparts against such a collapse.  How did those mfy teams of the late '90's manage to be so sucsessful without Manny Ramirez?  It's unthinkable, really...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Given that most of the trade proposals floating around involve relievers like Shields or Otsuka as their primary return pieces, and that the "plan" to replace Manny involves signing the often-injured JD Drew and/or one-year wonder Gary Matthews, what makes you think the ramparts won't collapse?

[MartyBarrettMVP]

If they were going to trade Manny for $.60 on the dollar, they would've by now; they've probably had several opportunities.  The fact that they haven't indicates to me that they're looking for full value.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think the FO is trying to keep a lot of plates spinning at once. On the one hand, in order to get the best value for Manny, the market has to be free of the FA mashers like Soriano and Carlos Lee. Then, if they really want to trade Manny, he will be the best option out there. However, if they're as interested in Drew as I think they are, they can't let him slip away either. It sounds like both their main competition for Drew and their best trading partner for Manny is LAA.

That being said, they need to keep Manny, for the reasons stated previously.

[Arock78]

Given that most of the trade proposals floating around involve relievers like Shields or Otsuka as their primary return pieces, and that the "plan" to replace Manny involves signing the often-injured JD Drew and/or one-year wonder Gary Matthews, what makes you think the ramparts won't collapse?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If the Sox got full value in a trade, the team might be fine without Manny, is all I think he was trying to say. What you're proposing as possible returns aren't full value. Clearly, the plan isn't to go with those speciifc replacement pieces.

[The Gray Eagle]

No one's untradeable, not even Ramirez.

If Anaheim would give us Cabrera, Shields and Atlanta's favorite prospect for Ramirez, maybe you could do this:

Ramirez for O. Cabrera, Scot Shields & prospect

Crisp, Hansen & prospect for Andruw Jones.

That would be giving Ramirez, Crisp and Hansen for Andruw Jones, Shields and Orlando Cabrera. SS would be set, and with Andruw in CF you could play WMP in LF next to him I think. Still need a RF, but there's Drew still out there. That would make us better, I think.

If Ramirez goes, I'd prefer that he go to the NL, so maybe something like this--

Ramirez for Milledge, Heilman & Shawn Green's contract (have to take back some salary, realistically)

Then Milledge, Hansen and Crisp for A. Jones.

We'd still need a SS, and Green wasn't very good last year, so this one improves us less.

Then there is the rumor of a few days ago of Ramirez (plus some prospect or prospects, presumably) for Texieira and Otsuka. I like that deal, if Texas would actually do it, which is questionable.

So there are ways to move just about anybody who is good, if you're creative about it.

Not saying that he should be traded or that the other teams would do these deals, but they aren't all that unlikely.

Atlanta's rumored price for Andruw last midseason was Hansen, Crisp and Lester, so swapping an Angels prospect or Lastings Milledge instead of Lester isn't that big of a leap, IMO.

[Lucen]

Given that most of the trade proposals floating around involve relievers like Shields or Otsuka as their primary return pieces, and that the "plan" to replace Manny involves signing the often-injured JD Drew and/or one-year wonder Gary Matthews, what makes you think the ramparts won't collapse?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think his point was that Manny isn't the difference between a great offense and a crappy one. He's a huge part of the offense, and would be extremely difficult to replace(if not impossible), but there are other reasons why the Sox offense may fall apart in 2007. Coco needs to rebound if they keep him, Lowell needs to avoid a second half slide for the first time in... well, a very long time, they need to replace Trot with someone who will be there to produce for the majority of the season, we have no idea if Pedroia can produce at an adequate level just yet, we need to get ahold of a shortstop who can swing a bat but won't be a butcher in the field (not sure Lugo can be both), Tek needs to avoid a second half slump, and can Youks produce all season?

There are a ton of questions about the 2007 offense right now, and while I'm not saying trading Manny would be a good thing (I don't think it would be), he's not the difference between a great offense and an anemic one. He's the difference between anemic and average.

[OCD SS]

Given that most of the trade proposals floating around involve relievers like Shields or Otsuka as their primary return pieces, and that the "plan" to replace Manny involves signing the often-injured JD Drew and/or one-year wonder Gary Matthews, what makes you think the ramparts won't collapse?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

ARock covered this pretty well, but I would also add that if the team is just one player away from total collapse, they're screwed anyway. I also don't see the Sox signing Gary "contract year" Matthews; I'm sure they ask after lots of players, as contingincey plans or scources of information.

I think the FO is trying to keep a lot of plates spinning at once.  On the one hand, in order to get the best value for Manny, the market has to be free of the FA mashers like Soriano and Carlos Lee.  Then, if they really want to trade Manny, he will be the best option out there.  However, if they're as interested in Drew as I think they are, they can't let him slip away either.  It sounds like both their main competition for Drew and their best trading partner for Manny is LAA.  .

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree with this, although I think Drew is the central position player in this offseason. Without an upgrade in RF the Sox can't make any moves in the OF that will fix other areas. That the Angels are now seen as their primary competition is interesting. I wonder if all other things being equal, Drew would rather play for Tito rather than Scoccia (as the reverse of the "Boston will eat Drew alive" argument).

[SoxFanSince57]

If the Red Sox were going to trade Manny for 60 cents on the dollar I have the feeling that last year they had the chance to do it, and declined.  Manny isnt going for 60 cents on the dollar this year, especially with the exploding contracts.

Manny isnt the problem.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Manny certainly isn't the problem even though it looks like all the Boston and national media have gotten together to encourage the Sox to run him out of town on a rail and to be happy with 60 cents on the dollar in return.

Unfortunately, if they do trade Manny it most likely will yield a 60 cents on the dollar return in 2007 unless Tejada or Teixeira are involved. And trading for those guys is more than remote. At best, the Sox will be able to get a average SS; a decent to good reliever and 1-2 stud AAA players who may or may not pan out in the long run.

If the AAA players turn into All-Stars, then the trade will look "good" down the road, but I see very few ways that trading Manny will improve the club in '07 and probably in '08.

[xjack]

As much as I hate to admit it, maybe CHB is right. The free agent market is so thin that perhaps Manny's trade value will never be higher.

Let's say the Sox were able to get Orlando Cabrera and Juan Rivera from the Angels in exchange for Manny. Offensively Cabera and Rivera would provide almost as much combined production as did A-Gon and Manny last year. And that would also free up some money for the Sox to sign Drew and a good second catcher like Barajas or Zaun.