In it, he offers a quick method to evaluate performance value in dollar terms. His idea is that teams spend for performance non-linearly -- the top performers create disproportionately more value and are compensated disproportionately also. He generates a kind of utility function to estimate this, which is
Salary = (WARP^2 * $212,730) + (WARP * $402,530)
The resulting metric he calls MORP, suitably enough. It yields a way to evaluate performance in salary terms. I wouldn't go crazy with this stuff, but it's the off season, and I thought it'd be fun to see how we did.
I got Sox hitters in a table, plugged in their WARP1 values and generated a BP salary figure or MORP with Silver's function. Then I subtracted from that the actual salary paid to the player. The difference yields value derived for money spent: a positive number is a good investment, and a negative number is a poor one.
It's obviously not a total surprise what the results are, but they were a little surprising to me, in terms of magnitude at least.
NAME WARP BP SALARY ACTUAL (EST) DIFFERENCE Ortiz, D 8 $16,834,960.00 $6,250,000.00 $10,584,960.00 Mueller, B 5.2 $7,845,375.20 $2,100,000.00 $5,745,375.20 Millar, K 3.9 $4,805,490.30 $3,500,000.00 $1,305,490.30 Varitek, J 6.2 $10,673,027.20 $10,000,000.00 $673,027.20 Youkilis, K 0.9 $534,588.30 $323,125.00 $211,463.30 Damon, J 5.5 $8,648,997.50 $8,500,000.00 $148,997.50 Graffanino, T 1.6 $1,188,636.80 $1,100,000.00 $88,636.80 Kapler, G 0.2 $89,015.20 $150,000.00 -$60,984.80 Stern, A -0.1 -$38,125.70 $316,000.00 -$354,125.70 Mirabelli, D 1.3 $882,802.70 $1,500,000.00 -$617,197.30 Bellhorn, M 1.7 $1,299,090.70 $2,120,000.00 -$820,909.30 Nixon, T 4.3 $5,664,256.70 $6,500,000.00 -$835,743.30 Vazquez, R -0.5 -$148,082.50 $700,000.00 -$848,082.50 Cora, A 0.5 $254,447.50 $1,300,000.00 -$1,045,552.50 Payton, J 0.8 $458,171.20 $1,750,000.00 -$1,291,828.80 Ramirez, M 6.6 $11,923,216.80 $20,000,000.00 -$8,076,783.20 Renteria, E 1.8 $1,413,799.20 $10,000,000.00 -$8,586,200.80
Ortiz obviously was a ridiculous value. Maybe Perahlta or someone, but it's hard to see who might have yielded the kind of value Ortiz did. And WARP even under-rates Ortiz, missing his 3-4 extra wins just derived from leverage this year.
Everyone's favorite Billy Mueller was second, which is no surprise. Thanks be to Jesus, for all glory and praise go to him, for giving us such a deal at third base!
Much-maligned Kevin Millar was a net positive value, and ranked 3rd on the team on a value basis. Surprise!
Johnny Jesus did about what he should have. Not looking good for 10,000,000/yr for 5 years though Johnny.
Who were the goats? Edgah, Manny, Payton (why'd he ever sign here anyway?), and Cora aren't looking too good. Trot's on the bubble with Bellhorn and Vazquez, but on a percentage basis he's not so bad.
If I get motivated or there's interest, it might be fun to see how other teams did.
I couldn't find salary data for Olerud or Petagine, so they are omitted, as are some scrubs like Machado, etc.
Just thought it was kind of fun.
Edited by Worst Trade Evah, 13 October 2005 - 10:40 PM.