231 replies to this topic

[BlueStateRedSox]

Gammons reporting that it's the Sox - for $42m...

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=2660428

[PedroKsBambino]

I believe David Beckham's team received a $41.3 million transfer fee when he left Manchester United.

Can anyone confirm that, and that it is (was?) the largest transfer fee in sports history? That's probably not a complete accident, is it?

EDIT: Lurker Hackery pointed out that there have been several larger transfer fees in Soccer history.

the world record is £45.62m paid by Real Madrid to Juventus for Zinedine Zidane (him of the famous head-butt in the World cup final earlier in the year)

that fee converts to approx $66.84m using 2001 Exchange rates.

Wikipedia list

So, no record here apparently!

Edited by PedroKsBambino, 13 November 2006 - 03:44 PM.

[ragnarok725]

Gammons's quietness on this throughout the process leads me to believe he wouldn't say anything unless he was really sure, here. $42M. Interesting. What kind of contract can we expect now? 5 years 45 million?

[bowiac]

My fear would be Boras being the one to not negotiate in good faith, and basically encouraging Matsuzaka to go back to Japan in hopes of a strike it rich deal next year, which Boras still cant guarantee.  Although I dont think he goes back, Boras has a way of getting the money, but doesnt always look out for the best interest of his clients.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If this was the case, if Matsuzaka was willing to do this, then he wouldn't be posted.

And I'm still reasonably confident that Matsuzaka isn't a free agent after next year. So far, nobody has offered a coherent explanation as to why normal Japanese service time rules wouldn't apply to him.

He's pitched from 1999-2006. That's eight years. One more year would only bring him to nine years, which is still short of what he'd need to be a free agent.

Can anyone explain to me why he'd be a free agent after 2007? Regardless of what's been reported, how does that make sense?

EDIT: I can't count. The point still stands, although PKB has as good an explanation as I've seen for it.

Edited by bowiac, 13 November 2006 - 03:22 PM.

[NortheasternPJ]

Gammons's quietness on this throughout the process leads me to believe he wouldn't say anything unless he was really sure, here. $42M. Interesting. What kind of contract can we expect now? 5 years 45 million?

Gammons was quiet on the whole thing because there was nothing to report. The confirmation of the bid was probably recieved about 5 minutes before Gammons got it.

[Noah]

He's pitched from 1999-2006. That's seven years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, that's eight years.

[xjack]

Anyone else think there's a reasonable chance this turns into a Millar/ARod/Theo-type saga that blows up the whole posting process? There are going to be just so many divisive forces at work here.

- Number one, the Red Sox are not going to sign Matsuzaka to a contract that doesn't work for them finanancially. JWH's history is not one of giving in.

- Number two, the Sox have a lot of negotiating leverage. If the Sox offered him $8 million a year, Boras would scream I'm sure, but the fact is that Matsuzaka is making (from what I've read) less than $3 million a year in Japan. Presumably there would be huge cultural pressure on him to sign, particularly if not signing would harm the financial position of his former team... And on top of all that, you've got the injury risk if he goes back to Japan for a year.

- Number three, if the Sox do hold the line in their contract offer, Seibu is going to have to at least consider whether it's their interest to quietly kick some of the posting fee money back to Matsuzaka in order to get a deal done.... Of course, that would surely violate the rules.

- Number four, if the Sox and Matsuzaka can't reach a deal, how long before Boras and perhaps even Steinbrenner accuses the Sox of negotiating in bad faith, perhaps even seeking fines of some sort.

[PedroKsBambino]

Matsuzaka has pitched eight seasons, not seven. And according to several sources, including this from BP, this from a Japanese correspondent for MLB.com and articles in the NYTimes and elsewhere, the FA requirement is nine years not ten. I suspect Wikipedia may just have the wrong FA eligibility.

The most logical explanation I've seen was McAdam's that the player's contract expires in April 2008; that would make "after the 2007 season" and "free agent in 2008" both correct and seems consistent with how long Matsuzaka has pitched and with many reports of FA eligbility.

But to each their own on this one.

Edited by PedroKsBambino, 13 November 2006 - 03:09 PM.

[yecul]

So, Sox apparently win at $42M with a report that the Mets were second at $38M. With a blind process the Sox 1. valued him highly, 2. determined the rough bid amount, and 3. payed a small premium to ensure their victory.

That's a great sign. I'm very pleased that they saw the value of a 26 year old potential top line starter. That's 3-4 mid-20s starters under their control. '07 and beyond are certainly looking rosier.

This will either be a reasonably large bust or will look like a steal in a couple year's time, IMO. I'm leaning to the latter considering the unliklihood that a mid-20s starter of his pedigree hits the free agent market.

In the grand scheme of things, is $5-7M really terribly significant to Boston? That's Hinske + Cora basically...

I'll wait for the official official announcement, but this is good enough for me at the moment.


Edit

where was the report that the Mets offered 38 million?

Maybe I overstepped a bit. Someone mentioned a rumor. The rumors for the Red Sox bid turned out to be pretty accurate, so I ran with it. Gammo apparently said that the Mets and Yankees were around 30m. Guess Boston might have blown everyone out.

I'm not worried about them trading him or sending him back to Japan. At least I hope not. That would be ridiculous.

Edited by yecul, 13 November 2006 - 03:30 PM.

[Tony C]

where was the report that the Mets offered 38 million?

if true, that's amazing...the Sox reeally wouldn't have paid tha tmuch of a premium, and teh Mets really must have been going on the assumption they were going to blow away the field.

my fear in re negotiations is that per Boras' style it'll be a nail-biter -- this is the guy who regularly sends college kids with no resources to play semi-pro ball, so he'll certainly threaten to have Dice-K go back to Japan, at a minimum. my sense is it'll be a poker match.

[gcapalbo]

Gammo report just mentioned on WEEI at $42 mil.

8pm press conference.

Wow.

[bowiac]

As for the Mets $38M figure, it seems pretty plausible to me, as it would explain where the Olney numbers came from.

Olney was to get ahold of the Mets number through some source, and then he asked his source with the Red Sox how much they bid, and was told something like "Well, we beat that figure by a good amount, but we bid less than $45M."

The Mets number set a floor, and the cap came from another source who didn't want to be exact in giving away the Red Sox number.

[V.I. Tessie]

Has this been substantiated yet? I've been searching all reputable websites and see nothing.

[Drocca]

While having Gammons name attached to this does add some validity to it in most of our minds; I think we should remember that if the Sox do win this thing it was Olney who did some pretty impressive reporting in a very "leak-proof" environment.

His name gets blasted around here a lot for...well, not always knowing what he's talking about on the statistical side of baseball but as a journalist he is quite good.

Edited by Drocca, 13 November 2006 - 03:44 PM.

[MikeGreenwell]

If this was the case, if Matsuzaka was willing to do this, then he wouldn't be posted.

And I'm still reasonably confident that Matsuzaka isn't a free agent after next year. So far, nobody has offered a coherent explanation as to why normal Japanese service time rules wouldn't apply to him.

He's pitched from 1999-2006. That's eight years. One more year would only bring him to nine years, which is still short of what he'd need to be a free agent.

Can anyone explain to me why he'd be a free agent after 2007? Regardless of what's been reported, how does that make sense?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Based on what I've read from Japanese baseball sites -- including this one, although most of the information there seems to be upwards of 6-7 years old -- Japanese players need nine years of service time to become free agents, not ten. It's possible the requirement has gone up in the last few years, but unless the Japanese plauers union is really weak, I don't think that's likely.

I think the confusion with "ten years" is that the the service time marker is nine FULL YEARS and either Matsuzaka didn't come straight from high school to the Lions' 1999 Opening Day "major league roster" or something else happened that has resulted in him being, as of right now, 20 days short of eight full seasons.

McAdams mentioned the 20 days in an ESPN.com story from two weeks ago:

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=2643750 (thinking that it was pretty much a done deal that he was going to end up with the Yankees, I didn't pay much attention to the story at the time)

Ineligible for total free agency until the end of April 2008, the 26-year-old right-hander was made available -- or "posted" -- by the Seibu Lions, who began the process at their discretion on Thursday.

...

The Lions will only receive payment if Matsuzaka is signed to a major-league contract. If not, Matsuzaka will return to Seibu for at least one more season. But he would need to be posted again next year since he's not officially a free agent until 20 days into the 2008 season.

Japanese Opening Day is, like ours, in early April, so if you combine McAdams' "end of April 2008" and "20 days into the 2008 season" it sounds like -- in what would seem to be a pretty wacky policy -- the Japanese leagues apparently allow a player to become a free agent on the exact date they have nine full years of service time (MLB makes a player wait until the conclusion of the season in which he hits his free agency service time requirement.)

Edited by MikeGreenwell, 13 November 2006 - 03:51 PM.

[JohntheBaptist]

We'll know everything by 8pm.  Seibu and MLB are set to make a simultaneous announcement.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Corsi, your link right above says the PC for all this will be 8PM Tues/ 10AM Wed (Japan time).

I don't totally understand the need for that, but we'll see I guess.

[templeUsox]

While having Gammons name attached to this does add some validity to it in most of our minds; I think we should remember that if the Sox do win this thing it was Olney who did some pretty impressive reporting in a very "leak-proof" environment.

His name gets blasted around here a lot for...well, not always knowing what he's talking about on the statistical side of baseball but as a journalist he is quite good.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No doubt. I'll give credit where credit is due. And while his columns are still insufferable to read, Olney beat Rosenthal to the punch on this one. Although I'm sure Robothal will more than make up for it in the GM and Winter meetings.

[underhandtofirst]

While having Gammons name attached to this does add some validity to it in most of our minds; I think we should remember that if the Sox do win this thing it was Olney who did some pretty impressive reporting in a very "leak-proof" environment.

His name gets blasted around here a lot for...well, not always knowing what he's talking about on the statistical side of baseball but as a journalist he is quite good.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It also sound like Orestes Destrade may have had the info as well but messed up the zeros. Instead of 5 million it was 5 billion yen

Thanks to lurker Tyrone Biggums for getting the info from XM radio on Orestes Destrade. It wasnt an official announcement, but it pushed the thread back in the right direction towards the actual amount (assuming Gammons is right).

[JohntheBaptist]

Scratch that, you're right, although this report says it's expected to be tonight:
Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/N...e2006&fext=.jsp

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm wondering if some wires aren't being crossed in some of these reports, where Person A asks "when will the announcement be," and when the answer is Tues, they may think Tuesday here, and not there...

Seems silly, but there has to be a reason no one can figure this easily verifiable point out.

[Winger 03]

Well goddamn! Congrats to you guys.

He will certainly be interesting to watch. 42 M is a lot to pay, but if he is as good as advertised, it is worth it.

Does this effectively shut the door on any more cash expenditures this off season?

[tywebb444]

Just found this on rotoworld.com

  Daisuke Matsuzaka-S-Player Nov. 13 - 3:03 pm et
  
 
The Red Sox bid $42 million for the rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka, sources told ESPN's Peter Gammons, and Boston's bid far exceeded any other team's offer.

Added confirmation that the reports were right. Gammons didn't have info on any of the other bid amounts, though SI's Jon Heyman said he believed the Mets and Yankees both bid around $30 million. If the Red Sox won Matsuzaka's rights, they'll have 30 days to work out a contract with the right-hander. It's been speculated that Matsuzaka would much rather go to the Yankees, but since he can't become a free agent before April 2008, it'd be risky for him to turn down a big offer now.

I know he has mentioned the Yankees in the past, just wondering if he himself has ever said publicly that he would rather go to the Yankees or is this just Rotoworld's take on it? Kind of annoys me, but glad it's not his call assuming he doesn't go back to Japan.

Edited by tywebb444, 13 November 2006 - 04:09 PM.

[SouthernBoSox]

Well goddamn!  Congrats to you guys.

He will certainly be interesting to watch.  42 M is a lot to pay, but if he is as good as advertised, it is worth it.

Does this effectively shut the door on any more cash expenditures this off season?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually I think this sets off a chain reaction of moves. I am about 50% sure J.D. Drew is going to be in RF.

Edited by SouthernBoSox, 13 November 2006 - 04:20 PM.

[Grubbery]

Assuming this holds up, then Olney's report this weekend was correct...

God help the poor SOB that gets caught for having leaked this to Buster.

[Crazy Puppy]

Jon Heyman chimes in:

NAPLES, Fla. -- The Boston Red Sox have won negotiating rights for Japanese League star Daisuke Matsuzaka, SI.com has confirmed.

The winning bid is thought to be for between $34 and $38 million.

SI.com

[Rough Carrigan]

Assuming that these reports are true, we're going to hear a lot of whining to the effect that "well, I guess you guys can't complain about the yankees simply outspending you guys any more!". This came up on another site. And it was followed (I kid you not) by an mfy fan suggesting that it would be better for Sox fans to keep the arguing point unsullied than to win this.

Well screw that. I want the Sox to win. Being able to point out to mfy fans how piggish their team has been is satisfying on a very low level. Winning is better. I root for the Sox to win. They'll never have as much revenue to spend as the mfy's. If occasionally they outdo them, then great, particularly if it's for a worthwhile player. Matsuzaka seems worthwhile.

Championships are championships. I never got the attitude of some fans that you should try to be the miracle martyr champion who spends no more than Tampa Bay and wins with 9 rookie of the year candidates all have astounding first seasons. Do you get extra points for degree of difficulty? Will there be extra flags on the trophy for this? I like this move and I don't think Sox fans should feel any guilt that they didn't acquire him from an orphanage for a flag and three blankets. This move seems like it'll help the Sox win. If the fans of the second place 2007 mfy's want to make a moral point that they didn't always spend the most, great. Let 'em.

[DJnVa]

Assuming this actually went down--I guess JWH was willing to go the extra mile for his fans. And, there's room for this in sports--this is exciting.

Not that the Sox need any spark or anything, but I can't imagine the atmosphere his starts will generate. We'll need some Japanese flags at Fenway to go with the Dominican ones.

[smackdown924]

@TYWEBB, I have heard from a couple of sources that Matsuzaka will pitch wherever he is most wanted. I think the term he used was "the team that most appropriately evaluates my ability" or something like that.

He never said he preferred the Yanks, I think that rumor came from 3 factors:
1) Boras loves the yanks coz they give every free agent $20mil a year
2) Japan in general prefer the yanks because Hideki Matsui has gone there and thrived, and his success has given them a sense of pride. They are also a dominant team known world-wide, and so of course they would love to have one of the best Japanese hitters and one of the best Japanese pitchers on that team.
3) Maybe because a lot of the writers/analysts felt that he would go to Japan, and some were openly rooting for it (Matsuzaka Watch for example)

I thought he would be wearing pinstripes myself, I am so excited at the prospect of him pitching at Fenway park! This opens up a whole new set of possibilities, rather than Japanese fans following the Yanks, they can follow the greatest rivalry in sports: Red Sox v. Yankees! Can you imagine the excitement that could be generated in Japan over that kind of rivalry? Japanese little-leaguers could grow up dreaming of being on one team or the other!

[Carlos Cowart]

So the Sox will pay 34, 38, or 42 million for the right to negotiate with a guy who’s yet to throw a pitch in the major leagues. How pissed do you think Pedro is right now?

[kwa1430]

@TYWEBB, I have heard from a couple of sources that Matsuzaka will pitch wherever he is most wanted.  I think the term he used was "the team that most appropriately evaluates my ability" or something like that.

He never said he preferred the Yanks, I think that rumor came from 3 factors:
1) Boras loves the yanks coz they give every free agent $20mil a year
2) Japan in general prefer the yanks because Hideki Matsui has gone there and thrived, and his success has given them a sense of pride.  They are also a dominant team known world-wide, and so of course they would love to have one of the best Japanese hitters and one of the best Japanese pitchers on that team.
3) Maybe because a lot of the writers/analysts felt that he would go to Japan, and some were openly rooting for it (Matsuzaka Watch for example)

I thought he would be wearing pinstripes myself, I am so excited at the prospect of him pitching at Fenway park! This opens up a whole new set of possibilities, rather than Japanese fans following the Yanks, they can follow the greatest rivalry in sports: Red Sox v. Yankees! Can you imagine the excitement that could be generated in Japan over that kind of rivalry? Japanese little-leaguers could grow up dreaming of being on one team or the other! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

For MLB, this is the best option. You have two of the highest profile Japanese stars (Matsui and Matsuzaka) playing against each other in one of the biggest rivalries in all sports. Imagine the sports pages in Japan when Matsuzaka pitches against the MFY.

[diehard24]

While having Gammons name attached to this does add some validity to it in most of our minds; I think we should remember that if the Sox do win this thing it was Olney who did some pretty impressive reporting in a very "leak-proof" environment.

His name gets blasted around here a lot for...well, not always knowing what he's talking about on the statistical side of baseball but as a journalist he is quite good.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hear, hear, Drocca. It's almost shocking how well this thing was zipped up, so much so that other major outlets didn't seem very confident in reporting Olney's claim. Looks like he got it right after all. Great job, Buster.

[NickEsasky]

So the Sox will pay 34, 38, or 42 million for the right to negotiate with a guy who’s yet to throw a pitch in the major leagues. How pissed do you think Pedro is right now?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My guess is Pedro should be more pissed that it turns out they were right. He's now out a year with a rotator cuff surgery and may never be the same pitcher again (and we are talking the 04-06 Pedro here).

[Steve Dillard]

I wonder what accounts for the different ranges in the bids. One possibility is the conversion rate to yens. But another scenario that I heard mentioned, but rarely discussed, is that the bid may be variable. I'd heard somewhere that the Sox's bid didn't just talk about how much they would pay Seibu, but also included ranges that they were prepared to offer Matsuzaka. I wonder if the bid had to be a straight up dollar bid, or whether the Sox could include aspects that would be difficult for other teams to match (understanding this wasn't a matching type situation, but perhaps something that made the amount of the Sox's bid variable.) For example, could they say "we'll pay $38 m if we sign him to $40 mil contract. We'll pay $40 mil if we sign him to a $38 mil contract, and we'll pay you $43 mil if we get him for $35 mil). This provides the Sox's some price stability, and also allows the value of the bid for Seibu to appear higher (with them getting the benefit of the Sox's negotiations).

[Ananti]

Just found this on rotoworld.com

I know he has mentioned the Yankees in the past, just wondering if he himself has ever said publicly that he would rather go to the Yankees or is this just Rotoworld's take on it?  Kind of annoys me, but glad it's not his call assuming he doesn't go back to Japan.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Everybody in Japan wants to play for the Yankees, that's just the way things are.

In fact this might be one of the reasons the Red Sox were so determined to win this bid, to create an enviroment so that 10 years down the line the Yankees are no longer the only team that all Japanese players will go for.

[Crazy Puppy]

I wonder what accounts for the different ranges in the bids.  One possibility is the conversion rate to yens.  But another scenario that I heard mentioned, but rarely discussed, is that the bid may be variable.  I'd heard somewhere that the Sox's bid didn't just talk about how much they would pay Seibu, but also included ranges that they were prepared to offer Matsuzaka.  I wonder if the bid had to be a straight up dollar bid, or whether the Sox could include aspects that would be difficult for other teams to match (understanding this wasn't a matching type situation, but perhaps something that made the amount of the Sox's bid variable.) For example, could they say "we'll pay $38 m if we sign him to $40 mil contract.  We'll pay $40 mil if we sign him to a $38 mil contract, and we'll pay you $43 mil if we get him for $35 mil).

I don't see how it's possible that could be allowed. MLB has to decide the high bid to forward to Seibu. If Boston entered a bid like you suggested and someone else entered a $39 million bid, which is the high bid that gets forwarded?

[Rough Carrigan]

Everybody in Japan wants to play for the Yankees, that's just the way things are.

In fact this might be one of the reasons the Red Sox were so determined to win this bid, to create an enviroment so that 10 years down the line the Yankees are no longer the only team that all Japanese players will go for.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Bingo!
Along with making some money, you want the team to have a better chance to sign prospects from the far east. Someone in this or another thread said he was in Japan during the 2004 ALCS and most people over there didn't even know who the heck the Red Sox were. Let's change that.

[hescores21]

Steve Phillips on "The Sports Bash" states that he is hearing the bid was upwards of $50 mil! Of course he gives no source for his information. He also believes that the RS bid this high in order to block the MFY's from obtaining him. He is not so sure DM will get signed.

Another bit of information he passed along: he stated that DM would not be a FA next year. He made reference to needing 10 years of service vs the 9 we have been reading about on this site.

What a tool!

[TheBenzingerGame]

Assuming that these reports are true, we're going to hear a lot of whining to the effect that "well, I guess you guys can't complain about the yankees simply outspending you guys any more!".   This came up on another site.  And it was followed (I kid you not) by an mfy fan suggesting that it would be better for Sox fans to keep the arguing point unsullied than to win this. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, we are going to start hearing a lot of this. It's not necessarily a valid argument, though.

The Red Sox, even if they've just spent $42 million on the posting fee, do still play according to the "rules" established by MLB in the form of the luxury tax. There is still a ceiling that they won't openly mock, like the Yankees do. In that sense -- a strictly payroll sense -- the Yankees still have an enormous financial advantage, and will continue to outspend everyone in baseball.

That's exactly why, IMO, this move is something to be appreciated on several levels. The $42 million is an indication of this ownership group's will to win, which we should all be thankful for. In addition, it's incredibly wise spending (if, of course, DM is not a bust... but that's an on-the-field issue, not a financial one).

As many have mentioned, the posting fee is likely to be a great long-term investment -- much more so than throwing $90 million at Zito, in terms of marketing purposes and revenue generation. Plus, in the end, it's such a creative way to make our payroll budget more efficient. Matsuzaka will almost certainly sign a contract for less than what the MFYs would offer on the open market. And Theo, presumably, will have more room to play with under the luxury threshold. That $10-$12 million block of cash per year (in the form of DM's salary) just became more productive than it otherwise would be.

Anyway, all of this is just my initial reaction to the whining Yankee fans who'll paint us as an Evil Empire. They're still far, far worse... Matsuzaka just happened to represent the Red Sox' best chance to seize a coveted asset without engaging the open market (where there is still, and will always be, a competitive imbalance favoring the Yankees). JWH, Theo, et al, recognized this moment for what it was, and jumped all over it.

We should be proud.

Edited by TheBenzingerGame, 13 November 2006 - 05:11 PM.

[NomarsFool]

Seems like a ridiculous sum to me. What are the numbers on the contract he's supposedly seeking? When all is said and done, it is going to be a huge investment for a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues.

Yes, he could be good, but so could lots of other players. You spend $60-$70 million on players with proven track records - that's why they earn the big bucks. This guy is only potentially good.

I assume these figures don't impact the luxury tax?

[Paul M]

But, any contract is for future production so that if they value Matsuzaka's chance to contribute on par with someone like Oswalt and more than say Zito or Schmidt, then it makes sense.

Projecting pitching performance is still very much a tenuous game, but to dismiss the Japanese leagues is not right.

He may not have a track record in MLB, but it's at least as good as AAA, and likely better.

I view the posting bid as somewhere in between a regular expenditure and an investment. $40+ million is an awful lot, but if we get him for $45 to sign it implied to me that they view him as a $15 million a year pitcher. I am operating with Oswalt as the comp given his stuff, size, age, and the fact that neither one was a true FA.

[mangotree101]

Yes, he could be good, but so could lots of other players. You spend $60-$70 million on players with proven track records - that's why they earn the big bucks. This guy is only potentially good.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He has enough of a track record to yield extremely promising projections.

But I'd also question the premise of your argument: the reason that it's "proven" players who get these big contracts is that players don't usually reach free agency until that point. If a Liriano or Peavy or Bonderman were available as FAs, they'd get ridiculous contracts, too -- young and highly promising would, I imagine, be as desirable as older and proven (but also more likely to break down). These players don't have enormous contracts only because the clubs that control them don't have to pay them more, and those clubs that don't have them can only trade for them, and can't get them by throwing money at them. That's precisely why the DM situation is so exciting.

[Section15Box113]

Steve Phillips on "The Sports Bash"  states that he is hearing the bid was upwards of $50 mil!  Of course he gives no source for his information.  He also believes that the RS bid this high in order to block the MFY's from obtaining him.  He is not so sure DM will get signed.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If I had to guess, this goes back to the decimal point confusion in the intial Destrade report: 5B Yen, misread as 50M and the currency mistakenly switched to USD. He corrected himself later.

5B Yen ~ $42M.

As many have stated above, no way in my mind that this is just a blocking move. Young pitcher in his prime, opportunity to sign him, with a significant portion of the cost not attaching to the luxury tax ceiling? Certainly will be a large $ contract, but a risk worth taking (maybe even a no brainer, if you have the resources and are comfortable with that risk profile) for a pitcher with his potential. These guys just don't come available at this point in their careers. This is, in part, what the NESN $$ are meant to do.

Edit: clarity

Edited by Section15Box113, 13 November 2006 - 06:00 PM.

[MikeGreenwell]

He has enough of a track record to yield extremely promising projections.

But I'd also question the premise of your argument: the reason that it's "proven" players who get these big contracts is that players don't usually reach free agency until that point. If a Liriano or Peavy or Bonderman were available as FAs, they'd get ridiculous contracts, too -- young and highly promising would, I imagine, be as desirable as older and proven (but also more likely to break down). These players don't have enormous contracts only because the clubs that control them don't have to pay them more, and those clubs that don't have them can only trade for them, and can't get them by throwing money at them. That's precisely why the DM situation is so exciting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think anyone is saying it's not exciting, but it is rather starling that given the risk factor -- regardless of where you rank Matsuzaka on Japanese baseball's all-time pitching talents, the to-date MLB returns for Japanese pitchers has been a mixed bag those far -- the Sox would go so high for a guy that, extremely promising projections or not, has never thrown a single MLB pitch.

Everyone is obviously hoping he turns out to be the next Pedro, but it is still surprising that, based on the size of the bid, an allegedly financially-prudent organziation seem to have completely discounted the possibility that he becomes the next Irabu or Ishii. Heck, at these financial costs, he'll still be viewed as a big disappointment even if he's the next Jose Contreras. At this cost, the expectations put on DM are unfortunately going to be insane and probably very unfair. You can argue whether a "barrier breaker" like Nomo or Ichiro, despite being much less of a financial cost to his team, was facing greater expectations and pressures, but no international player who has ever come over to the majors has ever had to cope with nearly as much financial pressure to perform. If things don't start well, it might be a good thing that he doesn't understand English very well

Edited by MikeGreenwell, 13 November 2006 - 06:05 PM.

[Section15Box113]

If things don't start well, it might be a good thing that he doesn't understand English very well

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maybe teammates can convince him they're saying "Youk".

..

[BigA27]

I really hope that this is true.

Matsuzaka has been on top of my wish list this offseason since October began.

$42 is quite a lot of money, but as many of you have previously put, we will save a bit of it on a below market value contract.

This is a great move by the Sox.