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Elias Compensation Rankings


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#1 templeUsox


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 01:25 AM

I'd post this in a table, but I can't find my Microsoft product key to get excel working.

All currently declared FA's and their rankings based on Elias.

A=Type A
B=Type B
C=Type C
X= Lower ranked then Type C
NR=Not ranked by Elias
AMERICAN LEAGUE
===============

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
-----------------------------
Darin Erstad, OF            X     
Adam Kennedy, 2B        B
J.C. Romero, LHP          X

Baltimore Orioles
-----------------
Bruce Chen, LHP        X
Chris Gomez, SS          C
LaTroy Hawkins, RHP    B
Kevin Millar, 1B        A
Russ Ortiz, RHP        X
Chris Widger, C        X

Boston Red Sox
--------------
Alex Cora, SS          X
Alex Gonzalez, SS      B
Gabe Kapler, OF        X
Mark Loretta, 2B        A
Doug Mirabelli, C      X
Trot Nixon, OF          B

Chicago White Sox
-----------------
Sandy Alomar, C          X 
Jeff Nelson, RHP        X 
David Riske, RHP        A 

Cleveland Indians
-----------------
Aaron Boone, 3B          X
Lou Merloni, 2B          NR

Detroit Tigers
--------------
Sean Casey, 1B          A
Matt Stairs, OF          C
Jamie Walker, LHP        B

Kansas City Royals
------------------
Paul Bako, C              X
Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B    C

Minnesota Twins
---------------
Phil Nevin, 1B            X
Shannon Stewart, OF      C
Rondell White, DH        X

New York Yankees
----------------
Miguel Cairo, IF          X 
Octavio Dotel, RHP        X 
Tanyon Sturtze, RHP      X 
Ron Villone, LHP          B
Bernie Williams, OF        C
Craig Wilson, 1B          C

Oakland Athletics
-----------------
Jay Payton, OF            B
Frank Thomas, DH          B
Barry Zito, LHP            A

Seattle Mariners
----------------
Gil Meche, RHP            B

Tampa Bay Rays
--------------------
Tomas O. Perez, 3B        X

Texas Rangers
-------------
Rod Barajas, C              B
Mark De Rosa, OF            B
Adam Eaton, RHP            C
Carlos Lee, OF              A
Gary Matthews Jr., OF      A
Vicente Padilla, RHP        B
Eric Young, 2B              X

Toronto Blue Jays
-----------------
Frank Catalanotto, OF      A
Ted Lilly, LHP              B
Bengie Molina, C            A
Justin Speier, RHP          A
Gregg Zaun, C              B
NATIONAL LEAGUE
===============

Arizona Diamondbacks
--------------------
Miguel Batista, RHP        B
Craig Counsell, SS        B
Damion Easley, SS          X
Luis Gonzalez, 1B          A
Brian Jordan, OF          X

Atlanta Braves
--------------
Danys Baez, RHP            A
Todd Pratt, C              X
John C. Thomson, RHP        X
Daryle Ward, 1B            X

Chicago Cubs
------------
Henry Blanco, C            C
John S. Mabry, 1B          X
Wade Miller, RHP            X
Juan Pierre, OF            B
Aramis Ramirez, 3B          A
Kerry Wood, RHP            X

Cincinnati Reds
---------------
Rich Aurilia, 3B            A
Royce Clayton, SS          C
Ryan Franklin, RHP          C
Eddie Guardado, LHP        A
Todd Hollandsworth, OF      X
Jason Johnson, RHP          NR
Scott Schoeneweis, LHP      B
Dave Weathers, RHP          A
*-Paul Wilson, RHP          X

Colorado Rockies
----------------
*-Ray King, LHP            X
Tom Martin, LHP            X
Kaz Matsui, 2B              X

Florida Marlins
---------------
Joe Borowski, RHP          A
Wes Helms, 3B              X
Matt Herges, RHP            X
Brian Moehler, RHP          X

Houston Astros
--------------
Aubrey Huff, 3B            A
Russ Springer, RHP          A

Los Angeles Dodgers
-------------------
Einar Diaz, C              NR
*-Eric Gagne, RHP          A
Nomar Garciaparra, 1B      B
Julio Lugo, SS              A
Greg Maddux, RHP            A
Ramon E. Martinez, RHP      X
Aaron Sele, RHP            X

Milwaukee Brewers
-----------------
David Bell, 3B              C
Jeff Cirillo, 3B            X
Tony Graffanino, 2B        A
Rick Helling, RHP          B
Daniel Kolb, RHP            X
Tomo Ohka, RHP              B

New York Mets
-------------
Chad Bradford, RHP          A
Cliff Floyd, OF            A
Orlando Hernandez, RHP      B
Roberto Hernandez, RHP      A
*-Yusaku Iriki, RHP        NR
Ricky Ledee, OF            NR
Guillermo Mota, RHP        B
Darren Oliver, LHP          B
Steve Trachsel, RHP        C
Michael Tucker, OF          X
Jose Valentin, 2B          B
Chris Woodward, 2B          X

Philadelphia Phillies
---------------------
Aaron Fultz, LHP            A

Jose A. Hernandez, SS      X
Mike Lieberthal, C          A
Arthur Rhodes, LHP          B
Rick White, RHP            C
Randy Wolf, LHP            C

Pittsburgh Pirates
------------------
Joe Randa, 3B              C

St. Louis Cardinals
-------------------
Ron Belliard, 2B            A
Gary Bennett, C            X
Jason Marquis, RHP          B
Scott Spiezio, 3B          X
Jose Vizcaino, SS          X
Jeff Weaver, RHP            B

San Diego Padres
----------------
Geoff Blum, 3B              X
Doug Brocail, RHP          X
Alan Embree, LHP            B
Shawn Estes, LHP            X
Chan Ho Park, RHP          B
David Roberts, OF          A
Rudy Seanez, RHP            A
Todd Walker, 2B            A
Woody Williams, RHP        A


San Francisco Giants
--------------------
Moises Alou, OF            A
Barry Bonds, OF            A
Ray Durham, 2B              A

Todd Greene, C              X
Shea Hillenbrand, 1B        B
Steve Kline, LHP            C
Jason Schmidt, RHP          A
Mike Stanton, LHP          B
Washington Nationals
--------------------
Tony Armas Jr, RHP          C
Robert Fick, C              X
Jose Guillen, OF            B
Alfonso Soriano, OF        A

* -- Provisional election pending resolution of club option on
    player's contract

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Edited by templeUsox, 31 October 2006 - 09:05 PM.


#2 SoxFanPJ


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 02:14 AM

Vincente Padilla of the Ranges is also a Type B free agent.


http://texas.rangers...t=.jsp&c_id=tex

#3 Guest_Corsi Combover_*

Posted 31 October 2006 - 03:36 AM

For reference, here are the 2005 player rankings:

http://www.usatoday....er-rankings.htm

It includes all relevant players, not just free agents.

Edited by Corsi Combover, 31 October 2006 - 03:36 AM.


#4 dylanmarsh

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 04:58 PM

For reference, here are the 2005 player rankings:

http://www.usatoday....er-rankings.htm

It includes all relevant players, not just free agents.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Pretty shocking that Loretta was ranked ahead of everyone in the NL's 2B, 3B and SS. Loretta's 2005 season was one of the worst of his career, offensively. Maybe they'll be kind to us again and label him an "A" player.

#5 sibpin

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:09 PM

Pretty shocking that Loretta was ranked ahead of everyone in the NL's 2B, 3B and SS. Loretta's 2005 season was one of the worst of his career, offensively. Maybe they'll be kind to us again and label him an "A" player.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Ratings are based on the past two seasons; Loretta's 2004 was great enough that it carried over.

Probably will not be as lucky this season, especially when you throw in the reduction of Type A players from 30% to 20%.

#6 semsox

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:19 PM

ok, dumb question but what is the difference between a B and C type free agent if neither will result in the loss of a draft pick or anything?

also, wasn't draft pick compensation done away with or am I confusing that with something else?

Edited by semsox, 31 October 2006 - 05:19 PM.


#7 Crazy Puppy

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:28 PM

Ratings are based on the past two seasons; Loretta's 2004 was great enough that it carried over.

Probably will not be as lucky this season, especially when you throw in the reduction of Type A players from 30% to 20%.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That reduction doesn't happen until next offseason.The top 30 percent are Type A's for one more year.

ok, dumb question but what is the difference between a B and C type free agent if neither will result in the loss of a draft pick or anything?

Teams that lose a Type B free agent get a compensation pick between the 1st and 2nd round, but the team that signs a Type B does not have to give up its own pick. Type C free agents no longer bring any compensation. So there's no difference between B and C for the signing team, but there is for the team losing the player.

also, wasn't draft pick compensation done away with or am I confusing that with something else?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The system has been changed, not eliminated.

Here's a recap of some of the changes in the new CBA.

Edited by Crazy Puppy, 31 October 2006 - 05:29 PM.


#8 BCsMightyJoeYoung

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:31 PM

ok, dumb question but what is the difference between a B and C type free agent if neither will result in the loss of a draft pick or anything?

also, wasn't draft pick compensation done away with or am I confusing that with something else?


AFAIR, The draft pick compensation has been tweaked ..

Type As .. the team losing the player receives the signing team's 1st rounder

Type Bs .. the team losing the player receives a sandwich pick at the end of the first (?) round. But the signing team doesn't lose it's pick

Type Cs .. no compensation

#9 Crazy Puppy

  • 1,783 posts

Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:34 PM

AL Rankings

NL Rankings

Red Sox:

Type A
Loretta

Type B
Gonzalez
Nixon

Edited by Crazy Puppy, 31 October 2006 - 05:36 PM.


#10 templeUsox


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:38 PM

Ouch, Loretta as a A definitely hurts us. There is no way a team will lose a pick for his services. At least with Gonzalez as a B we can get a comp. pick in return, and teams won't be scared off by losing a 1st rounder. We have no choice but to let Loretta go now without offering arbitration.

Speier's an A. There goes that dream.

Mulder is a B, though I wonder if the Cards will offer him arbitration.

Edited by templeUsox, 31 October 2006 - 05:41 PM.


#11 Crazy Puppy

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:47 PM

Speier's an A.  There goes that dream.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Another rumored target, Julio Lugo, is also an A. He and Tony Graffanino just barely made the cut -- the last two players ranked A among 2B, SS, and 3B.

Edited by Crazy Puppy, 31 October 2006 - 05:49 PM.


#12 dylanmarsh

  • 4,817 posts

Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:53 PM

Another rumored target, Julio Lugo, is also an A. He and Tony Graffanino just barely made the cut -- the last two players ranked A among 2B, SS, and 3B.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Add Gagne, Baez and XXXXX XXXX to the list of guys, who some thought would be good signings/risks, but would now cost us draft picks.

edit: attention to detail bites me in the ass, again.

Edited by dylanmarsh, 31 October 2006 - 05:58 PM.


#13 Crazy Puppy

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:55 PM

Add Gagne, Baez and Kerry Wood to the list of guys, who some thought would be good signings/risks, but would now cost us draft picks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Gagne and Baez are both As, but not Wood. No compensation for him.

#14 jtn46


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 05:58 PM

Add Gagne, Baez and Kerry Wood to the list of guys, who some thought would be good signings/risks, but would now cost us draft picks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can't believe Gagne's an A. He's thrown 15 innings in the last 2 years.

#15 templeUsox


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 06:01 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if Gagne wasn't offered arbitration. He made 10 million dollars this year, and would most likely immediately accept it. That's a lot of money for a reliever coming off an arm injury.

#16 Steve Dillard


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 07:22 PM

Ouch, Loretta as a A definitely hurts us.  There is no way a team will lose a pick for his services.  At least with Gonzalez as a B we can get a comp. pick in return, and teams won't be scared off by losing a 1st rounder.  We have no choice but to let Loretta go now without offering arbitration.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I agree having Nixon and Gonzo a B makes those decisions somewhat easier (Gonzos a no brainer, Nixon still probable). With Nixon its a balance. The B status now means he'll get lots of solid multi-year offers. The flip side for him is him loving Boston so much he'd give up a multi-year offers for a one-year payday to remain in Boston for an overpriced $8 mil. As with Loretta (discussed below), he's in a position where Boston really has a spot open for a one-year platooning situation until the internal solution matures.

Loretta as an A is a close call. We do need a 2B, and unless we do a major upgrade, we need another year of a placeholder/platoon for Pedroia. If we arb him we still have a chance of getting a short termer with at most $ 4 mil awarded, which is not so out of wack.

#17 templeUsox


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 07:26 PM

We do need a 2B, and unless we do a major upgrade, we need another year of a placeholder/platoon for Pedroia.

Why? You have to hand Pedroia over the job sometime. If we honestly return Timlin, Wakefield, and Loretta to this ballclub it would be a disaster. Loretta should never step foot in home clubhouse again.

#18 k-factory

  • 682 posts

Posted 31 October 2006 - 08:15 PM

I can't believe Gagne's an A.  He's thrown 15 innings in the last 2 years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Yeah thats really really strange. I wonder if in Elias' criteria there is some exception made when it comes to minimum games played or innings pitched and since he only pitched 2IP last year that 2006 does not factor into the equation and it calculates based on the previous 2 years?

Gagne posted a score of 69.106 --
2IP (0 ERA, 1SV) in 2006
13.1IP (2.70ERA, 8SV) in 2005

By contrast Steve Kline, designated a Type 'C' posted a score of 46.479
51.2IP (3.66ERA, 1SV) in 2006
61.2IP (4.28ERA) in 2005

More in the apples to apples comp, Armando Benitez is a type 'B' with a score of 50.
38.1IP (3.52ERA, 17SV)
30IP (4.50ERA, 19SV)

Not saying Kline is anywhere close to Gagne in talent but 114IP vs. 15IP is intuitively a hell of a lot more valuable.
So either Elias disregards 2006 if a certain IP is not met or gives an extremely disproportionate weight to ERA and saves over IP. And it seems ERA far more than saves since Gagne had a total of 9 to Benitez' 36!

Edited by k-factory, 31 October 2006 - 08:16 PM.


#19 SoxFanPJ


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 09:02 PM

I'd post this in a table, but I can't find my Microsoft product key to get excel working.

All currently declared FA's and their rankings based on Elias.

A=Type A
B=Type B
C=Type C
X= Lower ranked then Type C
NR=Not ranked by Elias


AMERICAN LEAGUE
===============

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
-----------------------------
Darin Erstad, OF X
Adam Kennedy, 2B B
J.C. Romero, LHP X

Baltimore Orioles
-----------------
Bruce Chen, LHP X
Chris Gomez, SS C
LaTroy Hawkins, RHP B
Kevin Millar, 1B A
Russ Ortiz, RHP X
Chris Widger, C X

Boston Red Sox
--------------
Alex Cora, SS X
Alex Gonzalez, SS B
Gabe Kapler, OF X
Mark Loretta, 2B A
Doug Mirabelli, C X
Trot Nixon, OF B

Chicago White Sox
-----------------
Sandy Alomar, C X
Jeff Nelson, RHP X
David Riske, RHP A

Cleveland Indians
-----------------
Aaron Boone, 3B X
Lou Merloni, 2B NR

Detroit Tigers
--------------
Sean Casey, 1B A
Matt Stairs, OF C
Jamie Walker, LHP B

Kansas City Royals
------------------
Paul Bako, C X
Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B C

Minnesota Twins
---------------
Phil Nevin, 1B X
Shannon Stewart, OF C
Rondell White, DH X

New York Yankees
----------------
Miguel Cairo, IF X
Octavio Dotel, RHP X
Tanyon Sturtze, RHP X
Ron Villone, LHP B
Bernie Williams, OF C
Craig Wilson, 1B C

Oakland Athletics
-----------------
Jay Payton, OF B
Frank Thomas, DH B
Barry Zito, LHP A

Seattle Mariners
----------------
Gil Meche, RHP B

Tampa Bay Rays
--------------------
Tomas O. Perez, 3B X

Texas Rangers
-------------
Rod Barajas, C B
Mark De Rosa, OF B
Adam Eaton, RHP C
Carlos Lee, OF A
Gary Matthews Jr., OF A
Vicente Padilla, RHP B
Eric Young, 2B X

Toronto Blue Jays
-----------------
Frank Catalanotto, OF A
Ted Lilly, LHP B
Bengie Molina, C A
Justin Speier, RHP A
Gregg Zaun, C B


NATIONAL LEAGUE
===============

Arizona Diamondbacks
--------------------
Miguel Batista, RHP B
Craig Counsell, SS B
Damion Easley, SS X
Luis Gonzalez, 1B A
Brian Jordan, OF X

Atlanta Braves
--------------
Danys Baez, RHP A
Todd Pratt, C X
John C. Thomson, RHP X
Daryle Ward, 1B X

Chicago Cubs
------------
Henry Blanco, C C
John S. Mabry, 1B X
Wade Miller, RHP X
Juan Pierre, OF B
Aramis Ramirez, 3B A
Kerry Wood, RHP X

Cincinnati Reds
---------------
Rich Aurilia, 3B A
Royce Clayton, SS C
Ryan Franklin, RHP C
Eddie Guardado, LHP A
Todd Hollandsworth, OF X
Jason Johnson, RHP NR
Scott Schoeneweis, LHP B
Dave Weathers, RHP A
*-Paul Wilson, RHP X

Colorado Rockies
----------------
*-Ray King, LHP X
Tom Martin, LHP X
Kaz Matsui, 2B X

Florida Marlins
---------------
Joe Borowski, RHP A
Wes Helms, 3B X
Matt Herges, RHP X
Brian Moehler, RHP X

Houston Astros
--------------
Aubrey Huff, 3B A
Russ Springer, RHP A

Los Angeles Dodgers
-------------------
Einar Diaz, C NR
*-Eric Gagne, RHP A
Nomar Garciaparra, 1B B
Julio Lugo, SS A
Greg Maddux, RHP A
Ramon E. Martinez, RHP X
Aaron Sele, RHP X

Milwaukee Brewers
-----------------
David Bell, 3B C
Jeff Cirillo, 3B X
Tony Graffanino, 2B A
Rick Helling, RHP B
Daniel Kolb, RHP X
Tomo Ohka, RHP B

New York Mets
-------------
Chad Bradford, RHP A
Cliff Floyd, OF A
Orlando Hernandez, RHP B
Roberto Hernandez, RHP A
*-Yusaku Iriki, RHP NR
Ricky Ledee, OF NR
Guillermo Mota, RHP B
Darren Oliver, LHP B
Steve Trachsel, RHP C
Michael Tucker, OF X
Jose Valentin, 2B B
Chris Woodward, 2B X

Philadelphia Phillies
---------------------
Aaron Fultz, LHP A

Jose A. Hernandez, SS X
Mike Lieberthal, C A
Arthur Rhodes, LHP B
Rick White, RHP C
Randy Wolf, LHP C

Pittsburgh Pirates
------------------
Joe Randa, 3B C

St. Louis Cardinals
-------------------
Ron Belliard, 2B A
Gary Bennett, C X
Jason Marquis, RHP B
Scott Spiezio, 3B X
Jose Vizcaino, SS X
Jeff Weaver, RHP B

San Diego Padres
----------------
Geoff Blum, 3B X
Doug Brocail, RHP X
Alan Embree, LHP B
Shawn Estes, LHP X
Chan Ho Park, RHP B
David Roberts, OF A
Rudy Seanez, RHP A
Todd Walker, 2B A
Woody Williams, RHP A


San Francisco Giants
--------------------
Moises Alou, OF A
Barry Bonds, OF A
Ray Durham, 2B A

Todd Greene, C X
Shea Hillenbrand, 1B B
Steve Kline, LHP C
Jason Schmidt, RHP A
Mike Stanton, LHP B


Washington Nationals
--------------------
Tony Armas Jr, RHP C
Robert Fick, C X
Jose Guillen, OF B
Alfonso Soriano, OF A

* -- Provisional election pending resolution of club option on
player's contract

#20 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 09:44 PM

I agree having Nixon and Gonzo a B makes those decisions somewhat easier (Gonzos a no brainer, Nixon still probable).  With Nixon its a balance.  The B status now means he'll get lots of solid multi-year offers.  The flip side for him is him loving Boston so much he'd give up a multi-year offers for a one-year payday to remain in Boston for an overpriced $8 mil.  As with Loretta (discussed below), he's in a position where Boston really has a spot open for a one-year platooning situation until the internal solution matures.

Honestly, I doubt Nixon's status as an A or B would really cause a team to shy away from him. Some mid-level team, or perhaps the teams that lose the Sheffield/Soriano sweepstakes, would give him a solid multi-year deal regardless of compensation, I think. And Nixon'd have to love Boston more than he loves Jesus for him to turn down any guaranteed multi-year contract for a one-year deal.

Barring an absolute collapse on the market for outfielders, Nixon won't be returning here unless he gets a multi-year deal or possibly a year with a player option.

And while Gonzalez's defense is strong, I'd hesitate to call him a no-brainer.

Loretta as an A is a close call.  We do need a 2B, and unless we do a major upgrade, we need another year of a placeholder/platoon for Pedroia.  If we arb him we still have a chance of getting a short termer with at most $ 4 mil awarded, which is not so out of wack.

Pedroia has absolutely zero left to prove or do at the AAA level, and this team needs to find out now if he's the future at 2B. If he's not starting at 2B on Opening Day, it'll be because of an injury. I hope the FO stays away from giving Loretta anything but a pat on the back and a "good luck".

#21 amarshal2

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 09:47 PM

Justin Speier, RHP A
*-Eric Gagne, RHP A
Julio Lugo, SS A


Doh! There is officially zero chance the Red Sox keep the #20 pick in the draft.

I bet the FO offers Loretta arbitration and I guess there's a very outside chance that he declines and signs with a new team. If he returned a supplemental and a 2nd round pick, that would be more than enough.

Edited by amarshal2, 31 October 2006 - 09:50 PM.


#22 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 09:56 PM

I don't think there's any reason to offer Loretta arbitration, since they'd be on the hook for $4M for a player who just isn't very good, esp. when they have Pedroia around. No thanks. I wouldn't stop looking to upgrade 2B since I don't think Pedroia's ceiling is that high, but Loretta isn't that guy.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 31 October 2006 - 09:58 PM.


#23 Bowlerman9


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 10:03 PM

Doh!  There is officially zero chance the  Red Sox keep the #20 pick in the draft.

I bet the FO offers Loretta arbitration and I guess there's a very outside chance that he declines and signs with a new team.  If he returned a supplemental and a 2nd round pick, that would be more than enough.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Reward = 80th pick in the draft

Risk = Paying someone we don't need 4-5M

I'll pass.

#24 The Flying Dutchman

  • 943 posts

Posted 31 October 2006 - 10:06 PM

I don't think there's any reason to offer Loretta arbitration, since they'd be on the hook for $4M for a player who just isn't very good, esp. when they have Pedroia around. No thanks. I wouldn't stop looking to upgrade 2B since I don't think Pedroia's ceiling is that high, but Loretta isn't that guy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

True, but you could always make it clear to Loretta that if he accepts he would be primarily a first baseman. Maybe he would decline and we get the draft pick.

It probably depends on what he could get on the open market, and how long he wants to keep playing. Loretta on a 1 year 4m deal wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, I'm sure we could move one of him, Youks, or Lowell if push came to shove.

I don’t know how feasible using Pedroia at short is either, but its an option.

Edit: 80th pick is really the best reward? Maybe he's not worth it.

Edited by The Flying Dutchman, 31 October 2006 - 10:08 PM.


#25 Crazy Puppy

  • 1,783 posts

Posted 31 October 2006 - 10:09 PM

The upside to offering Loretta arb is that he signs somewhere else and you get two good draft picks. The downside is he accepts and he's on your books for $3-$4 million for 2007.

However, if the latter happens there are still two reasonable options:

1. You release him in spring training and only have to pay 1/6th of his salary ($500,000-$600,000), with the outside possibility that someone actually claims him on waivers and takes his entire salary. That's what happened with Graffanino.

2. You trade him in spring training for little or nothing (a fringe prospect). Some team that's not interested in giving him a multi-year deal in free agency and surrendering a draft pick may be willing to take him for 1 year at his arb number if they don't have to give up anything of value.

IMO, those latter two scenarios make the downside risk pretty minimal, and very much worth offering arb to have a shot at the draft picks. It's possible that someone sees him as a starter and is willing to give up a pick, especially a team in the top half of the draft that would only surrender a 2nd-rounder instead of a first. But even if they don't, the downside just doesn't seem that bad.

Loretta accepting arb does not mean he's on the 2007 team.

Edited by Crazy Puppy, 31 October 2006 - 10:11 PM.


#26 Bowlerman9


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 10:11 PM

True, but you could always make it clear to Loretta that if he accepts he would be primarily a first baseman.  Maybe he would decline and we get the draft pick. 


Wouldnt make a difference.

It probably depends on what he could get on the open market, and how long he wants to keep playing.


Bingo. He'd be lucky to get a 2 year deal worth 5M .... why pass up a 1 year deal?

Loretta on a 1 year 4m deal wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, I'm sure we could move one of him, Youks, or Lowell if push came to shove.


When you have about 20-25M to spend and need a bunch of things, spending 4M on Loretta would be a horrible thing. So you'd consider moving Youkilis so we could have Loretta and Lowell on the corners? All for the upside of a supp-2nd round pick?

I don’t know how feasible using Pedroia at short is either, but its an option.


Youkilis, Loretta, Pedroia, and Lowell ..... maybe Clement at closer wouldnt really hurt the team either.

#27 templeUsox


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 10:11 PM

I do not know where this 80th pick stuff is coming from. 15th pick is the best reward. It is just never going to happen because no reasonable team would give up a draft pick for Mark Loretta.

#28 amarshal2

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Posted 31 October 2006 - 10:29 PM

IMO, those latter two scenarios make the downside risk pretty minimal, and very much worth offering arb to have a shot at the draft picks. It's possible that someone sees him as a starter and is willing to give up a pick, especially a team in the top half of the draft that would only surrender a 2nd-rounder instead of a first. But even if they don't, the downside just doesn't seem that bad.


This was my thinking.

80th pick in the draft? Are you going to be here all week? The latest possible pick is somewhere in the 30's, highest is about 16 (but clearly unlikely) as Temple said. More likely a team would sign him if they already signed another type A thereby only losing a 2nd round pick. The Sox still get a 1A in this scenario though (a pick in the 30's).

#29 Bowlerman9


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 10:33 PM

I do not know where this 80th pick stuff is coming from.  15th pick is the best reward.  It is just never going to happen because no reasonable team would give up a draft pick for Mark Loretta.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


For some reason I got "supplemental 2nd round pick" stuck in my head and it didnt occur to me that it was really "supplemental 1st" and the possibility of a second.

Even so, I see zero chance anyone signs Loretta if we offer him arb. Not unless he takes a cheap deal from some team that signs 2 or 3 other Type A guys.

#30 OilCanShotTupac


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 10:52 PM

Any system that ranks Kevin Millar as an A player cannot be taken seriously.

#31 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 11:29 PM

True, but you could always make it clear to Loretta that if he accepts he would be primarily a first baseman. Maybe he would decline and we get the draft pick.

The only thing worse than having Loretta back at 2B would be having him back at 1B.

He would probably qualify in the bottom five of major league 1B. No thanks.

#32 BigMike


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Posted 31 October 2006 - 11:56 PM

Honestly, I doubt Nixon's status as an A or B would really cause a team to shy away from him. Some mid-level team, or perhaps the teams that lose the Sheffield/Soriano sweepstakes, would give him a solid multi-year deal regardless of compensation, I think. And Nixon'd have to love Boston more than he loves Jesus for him to turn down any guaranteed multi-year contract for a one-year deal.

Barring an absolute collapse on the market for outfielders, Nixon won't be returning here unless he gets a multi-year deal or possibly a year with a player option.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>




Really you believe some team is going to step up and give 33 year old Trot (he will be in early April) a solid multiyear deal? Wow, I look at Trot, and see a guy who is likely to get a 1 year deal with incentives, and maybe an option

His defense is completely gone, and he is a guy who you now have to assume is going to take at least one trip to the DL every year

#33 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 01 November 2006 - 01:30 AM

Really you believe some team is going to step up and give 33 year old  Trot (he will be in early April)  a solid multiyear deal?    Wow,  I look at Trot, and see a guy who is likely to get a 1 year deal with incentives, and maybe an option

His defense is completely gone, and he is a guy who you now have to assume is going to take at least one trip to the DL every year

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, I'm not saying that he's going to get a 4-7 year deal, but I do expect him to get a two-year deal with an outside chance at a three-year one.

Beyond Soriano and potentially Sheffield, there really aren't too many quality OF'ers available. I think that dearth'll work in Trot's favor.

#34 Carroll Hardy


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Posted 01 November 2006 - 06:12 AM

There's not really that much difference between Mark Loretta (Type A) and Jeff Cirillo (Type Zero), IMO.

Cirillo's a veteran PT utility IF who's still an exceptional professional hitter because he's not worn down from playing everyday. Loretta's an exceptional professional hitter who IS worn down from playing everyday and should be a PT utility IF. But since Loretta got the additional crummy ABs that plummet his BA, but gave him bigger overall numbers, he's the Type A and Cirillo's not mentioned.

Edited by Carroll Hardy, 01 November 2006 - 06:15 AM.


#35 SouthPaw21

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Posted 01 November 2006 - 07:57 AM

Well, I'm not saying that he's going to get a 4-7 year deal, but I do expect him to get a two-year deal with an outside chance at a three-year one.

Beyond Soriano and potentially Sheffield, there really aren't too many quality OF'ers available. I think that dearth'll work in Trot's favor.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


You are forgetting about...

- Carlos Lee
- Gary Matthews Jr.
- Cliff Floyd (Maybe as likely as Trot to get injured but has put up better numbers more recently.
- Juan Pierre

I know Pierre and Matthews are CF and not corner OFers but they are still better options than Trot on a multiple year contract

#36 reggiecleveland


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Posted 01 November 2006 - 11:58 AM

I don't want to pile on to Trot but he may be entering the lf/1b/dh phase of his career. He could possibly be a very good Dh since he woulod be more likely to stay healthy and could maybe do whatever he used to do when he was a power hitter because he would not have to worry about covering ground in the of. A few years ago IMHO was the time for the Red Sox to try him at 1b. I expect a small market team to take a flier on him for one year and we will see lots of reference to his 03 numbers and his 04 Dirt[B] dogs intangibles in there press guide. The other scenario I envision is him going to the NL and raking the ball through ApPril and May with all the fastballs he would see before he misses the next two months.

edit I was tring to get around the prfanity/(Dirty Shorts)gs filter

Edited by reggiecleveland, 01 November 2006 - 12:01 PM.


#37 sfip


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Posted 01 November 2006 - 08:07 PM

I don't know how to apply everything correctly but if someone, including a lurker, wants to add a "Type" column and update the 2006 Free Agents table with SoxFanPJ's Elias rankings, the table could be a more valuable source for discussion of what free agents the Sox should consider signing.

Edit: Thank you to SouthPaw21 and lurker mfy_the_chokes_on_you for updating it.

Edited by sfip, 02 November 2006 - 12:12 PM.


#38 diehard24

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Posted 01 November 2006 - 10:17 PM

Add Gagne, Baez and XXXXX XXXX to the list of guys, who some thought would be good signings/risks, but would now cost us draft picks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Given the state of the lower levels of the minors, I wouldn't be surprised if they went after an A guy. They could decide to offer Loretta arbitration hedging that he wants a multi-year deal. He'd be sure to sign elsewhere, which would allow them to sign yet another A. I'm not saying that's likely, but it's not far-fetched. If he decided to stay, you slide Pedroia over to SS (I hear collective gasps), consider your infield set, and work on other needs.

edit: Reggie, you have the best ass on the Internet by far. I'd proudly wear that thing as a hat. I don't care what they say about Vida Guerra.

Edited by diehard24, 01 November 2006 - 10:22 PM.


#39 diehard24

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Posted 01 November 2006 - 10:27 PM

You are forgetting about...

- Carlos Lee
- Gary Matthews Jr.
- Cliff Floyd (Maybe as likely as Trot to get injured but has put up better numbers more recently.
- Juan Pierre

I know Pierre and Matthews are CF and not corner OFers but they are still better options than Trot on a multiple year contract

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think you'd have to rule out Floyd based on his knees, or lack thereof. I don't think there's anyway he could handle RF at Fenway.

Personally, I'm still a believer in Pierre. He may have been slightly over-rated at one time, but he's tetering toward being underrated now. Probably not a practical sign with Ellsbury waiting in the wings, but he'd certainly be an improvement over Coco.

I'm not sure he's right for RF either, but how great would Lee look hitting behind Manny?

#40 MikeGreenwell

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Posted 02 November 2006 - 12:53 AM

I wouldn't be surprised if Gagne wasn't offered arbitration.  He made 10 million dollars this year, and would most likely immediately accept it.  That's a lot of money for a reliever coming off an arm injury.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


There's no way the Dodgers will offer Gagne arbritration, if they did the maximum cut they could submit would be to cut 20% of his $10 million 2006 salary and there's no way they are going to offer him $8 million guaranteed for 2007 at this point.

I personally think someone will give an A for Loretta. For example, St. Louis (picking 18th despite winning the World Series) will likely be collecting several extra first round/first round supplemental picks for at least some of Belliard, Mulder, Suppan, Weaver, and Marquis, I could see them easily deciding that losing their own #1 for Loretta isn't a dealbreaker.

Then there is always a team like the Giants, who not only love old players, are likely to be losing Ray Durham, and are now coached by Loretta's old San Diego manager but also seem to make it a regular practice to intentionally give away their draft picks. Unfortuately for us, they sucked so bad this year that their #10 pick would be protected, but the first round supplemental and the Giants second round pick also wouldn't be that bad -- and if the Giants haven't worried about first rounders in the past, I don't knnow why they'd worry about second rounders now.

Edited by MikeGreenwell, 02 November 2006 - 01:01 AM.


#41 The Allented Mr Ripley


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Posted 02 November 2006 - 11:11 AM

Honestly, I doubt Nixon's status as an A or B would really cause a team to shy away from him. Some mid-level team, or perhaps the teams that lose the Sheffield/Soriano sweepstakes, would give him a solid multi-year deal regardless of compensation, I think.


Regarding any A-level comp signing, if the signing team's draft pick is in the top half of the round, they don't even lose that pick, right? They lose a second-rounder instead?

Edited by The Allented Mr Ripley, 02 November 2006 - 11:11 AM.


#42 Crazy Puppy

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Posted 02 November 2006 - 11:27 AM

There's no way the Dodgers will offer Gagne arbritration, if they did the maximum cut they could submit would be to cut 20% of his $10 million 2006 salary and there's no way they are going to offer him $8 million guaranteed for 2007 at this point.

That 20-percent rule doesn't apply to free agent arb, but the overall point still holds. The Dodgers won't offer arb to Gagne because he'll get too much guaranteed money.

Regarding any A-level comp signing, if the signing team's draft pick is in the top half of the round, they don't even lose that pick, right? They lose a second-rounder instead?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Correct.

#43 MikeGreenwell

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Posted 06 November 2006 - 02:02 PM

For whatever it's worth, Loretta's agent is claiming that the Mets have expressed "more interest in him than any other club so far"

http://www.nypost.co...s_mark_hale.htm

The Mets don't pick until #29, but I guess that'd be better than getting the Giants' second round pick (which given all the free agents they have this year and guys they might sign to replace them, could easily turn into a third or fourth round pick. Of course, if the Mets sign Zito, then Loretta's Mets pick would become a second rounder too.)

#44 djshecky

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Posted 06 November 2006 - 08:57 PM

millar and rudy are type A free agents? wow............