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minor leagues 1994 (Vol 2)


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#1 philly sox fan


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Posted 12 October 2005 - 04:59 PM

Part 1: How were the Top 75 Players Acquired?

As a certifiable draft geek one of the obvious (to me) things to do with this group of players was to sort them by how they were acquired. I wanted to narrow the focus a bit so I decided to just look at the top 75 players. There are a few good players outside of the top 75 who just happened to be in the low minors in 1994, but I didnít want to get bogged down with a lot of very average players.

These players are sorted twice Ė once by draft round and country of origin and then a second time by type of school. Itís in the draft/minors study handbook that you eventually have to talk about college vs HS drafting.

Sorted by Round or Intl
Rk  Team  Player          Level    WARP3   29WARP3  BA  Country
6   NYY   Mariano Rivera  AA-EL     66.6     30.0       PAN
7   Tor   Carlos Delgado  AAA-IL    66.2     41.7    3  PR
10  Atl   Andruw Jones    R-APP     65.8     65.8    2  CUR
15  Hou   Bob Abreu       AA-TL     59.2     49.0    6  VEN
17  Mon   Vlad Guerrero   Comp-GCL  56.8     56.8    4  DR
21  NYM   Edgardo Alfonzo AA-EL     54.8     50.6       VEN
22  Cle   Bartolo Colon   R-APPY    52.6     40.8       DR
27  ChiAL Magglio Ordonez Lo-A-SAL  47.0     45.0       VEN
29  Bal   Armando Benitez AA-EL     46.2     34.3    1  DR
30  Fla   Edgar Renteria  Hi-A-FSL  45.6     45.6       COL
34  LA    Ismael Valdes   AA-TL     42.0     40.2       MEX
35  Oak   Tony Batista    Hi-A-CAL  42.0     37.4       DR
39  Mon   Uggie Urbina    AA-EL     40.1     36.9       VEN
41  Pitt  Esteban Loaiza  AA-SL     39.5     23.5       MEX
45  Hou   Richard Hidalgo Lo-A-MWL  38.4     38.4    4  VEN
53  Tor   Kelvim Escobar  Comp-GCL  35.6     35.6       VEN
55  LA    Chan Ho Park    AA-TL     34.8     32.9   10  KOR
58  Bos   Matt Stairs     AA-EL     33.3      7.2       CAN
63  NYM   Quilvio Veras   AAA-IL    32.1     29.6       DR

Total: 19 players or 25% of Top 75

I originally threw the international free agents at the end of the section, but thatís really a disservice to an extremely large and talented group of players. Itís also an unfortunate casualty of the rote HS vs C debate. The controversy about that debate and the easy focus on the highly structured draft process, tends to marginalize the importance of international free agents. Thereís a very significant third way that teams acquire amateur talent and it mostly doesnít get talked about.

I think a lot of that is because of the loose open ended way that these players are signed. Iíve generally been an agnostic on the issue of a world draft, but one nice small thing that would come from it is that it would force some structure on this important part of amateur talent acquisition. Itís basically impossible to study the international markets as thoroughly as the draft has been studied because there isnít an organizing structure. We can say that X% of HS pitchers make the majors and Y% become stars, but we canít do that for Dominican pitchers because a complete data set of signed Dominicans just doesnít exist.

I was a little surprised that international players comprised 25% of the Top 75 Ė as youíll see thatís slightly more than first rd draft picks Ė but thatís right around the percentage of international players overall so it makes sense.

This is also an extremely talented group of players. The top 10 are all amongst the very best in the game at their positions and it includes three likely Hall of Fame players (Rivera, Jones and Guerrero). Clearly any teams that skimped on allocating resources towards the international free agent markets were being extremely short sighted.

The other interesting thing about this group is their diversity. Itís true that the Dominican Republic and Venezuela are the biggest providers (eleven out of nineteen players), but there are nine different countries represented overall including six different countries for the top ten players. Somewhat surprisingly, there is one more player from Venezuela than the DR. Hereís a little table with the number of players and their cumulative WARP to date.

Country   #     WARP
VEN       6    275.1
DR        5    229.7
MEX       2     81.5
PAN       1     66.6
PR        1     66.2
CUR       1     65.8
COL       1     45.6
KOR       1     34.8
CAN       1     33.3

Note that players from Canada and Puerto Rico are now subject to the draft. They were not in the late 1980 when Delgado and Stairs were signed.

I donít have any recollection about how Venezuela was perceived as a talent market in comparison to the DR in the mid 1990s. I would guess that it was considered a distant second at the time. The six Venezuelan players were signed by Houston (two), the Mets, Toronto, Montreal and the White Sox. Houston has a deserved reputation for being one of the first teams to extensively scout Venezuela. The Astros problem is that they lost the two best Venezuelans that they signed (Abreu in the expansion draft and Johan Santana, whoís not in this study, in the rule 5 draft). The Jays and Expos, perhaps befitting their own locations, also had reputations for extensive and early coverage of Latin America so itís not surprising to see them. The mid-90s Mets and White Sox didnít have those kinds of reputations as far as I know, but they were there enough to get a couple of very good players.

Hereís a very good BP subscriber article by Nate Silver on the internationalization of the game.

http://www.baseballp...?articleid=4194

All of the rest of the players are sorted by draft round Ė Rd 1, rds 1s-5, rds 6-10, rds 11-15, rds 16-20 and rds 21 and up.

Draft Ė 1st Rd
Rk  Team  Player          Level    WARP3   29WARP3  BA   Rd
1   Sea   Alex Rodriguez  Lo-A-MWL 104.2    104.2    1    1
5   Tor   Shawn Green     AAA-IL    66.8     56.1    1    1
8   NYY   Derek Jeter     Hi-A-FSL  66.0     57.1    1    1
12  Pitt  Jason Kendall   Hi-A-CAR  61.7     53.1         1
14  Bos   N Garciaparra   Hi-A-FSL  61.0     58.0         1
25  Fla   Charles Johnson AA-EL     50.1     41.1    2    1
28  Mon   Rondell White   AAA-IL    46.6     36.0         1
32  Hou   Billy Wagner    Lo-A-MWL  45.1     27.4    2    1
33  PHL   Mike Lieberthal AAA-IL    44.0     25.2         1
43  Fla   Carl Everett    AAA-PCL   38.7     27.2         1
46  Tor   Shannon Stewart Lo-A-SAL  38.2     35.5    6    1
48  SD    Derrek Lee      Hi-A-CAL  37.6     37.6    4    1
49  Hou   Phil Nevin      AAA-PCL   37.0     16.4         1
50  Tex   Rick Helling    AAA-AA    36.9     26.8         1
67  Det   Tony Clark      AA-EL     30.5     28.4         1
70  Bos   Trot Nixon      Hi-A-CAR  29.6     28.0    6    1
71  StL   Dmitri Young    AA-TL     29.4     26.5         1 

Total: 17 players or 25% of Top 75

As expected the first round produced a large percentage of players and a good number of stars.

Draft Ė Rds 1supp to 5
Rk  Team  Player          Level    WARP3   29WARP3  BA   Rd
20  KC    Johnny Damon    Hi-A-CAR  54.9     46.5    1   1s
2   PHL   Scott Rolen     Lo-A-SAL  75.0     75.0    9    2
3   Oak   Jason Giambi    AA-SL     70.8     39.1         2
56  Bal   Arthur Rhodes   AAA-IL    34.0     18.4         2
61  Bos   Jeff Suppan     Hi-A-FSL  32.9     32.9   10    2
18  Cal   G Anderson      AAA-PCL   56.3     36.4    4    4
11  ChiAL Ray Durham      AAA-AA    62.8     46.0    4    5

Total: 7 players or 9% of Top 75

There was a typically large drop off from the first round to the next group of rounds. This is a very talented group though with all but Rhodes and Suppan (deserving) All Stars at one point in their careers. Iím a little surprised there werenít more complementary players from this group.

Draft Ė Rds 6-10
Rk  Team  Player          Level    WARP3   29WARP3  BA   Rd
26  Cal   Troy Percival   AAA-PCL   48.2     25.8         6
62  Mon   Jose Vidro      Hi-A-FSL  32.2     32.2         6
73  ChiNL Frank Castillo  AAA-AA    29.1     15.8         6
36  Mil   Mark Loretta    AA-TL     41.3     19.5         7
74  Minn  LaTroy Hawkins  AA-SL     28.2     17.5    2    7
75  Cle   David Bell      AAA-IL    28.1     21.0    9    7
4   Minn  Brad Radke      AA-SL     68.1     55.6         8
31  Sea   Derek Lowe      AA-SL     45.6     37.7         8
51  Atl   Jason Schmidt   AA-SL     36.8     19.7         8
72  Col   Curt Leskanic   AAA-PCL   29.3      9.9         8
42  KC    Mike Sweeney    Lo-A-MWL  39.0     35.9        10
68  Minn  Marty Cordova   AAA-PCL   30.0     22.8        10

Total: 12 players or 16% of Top 75

This is a surprisingly large group. I would certainly expect more players from rds 1s-5, than rds 6-10. Part of that is the flukey run of great HS pitching from the 8th rd of the 1991 draft. But you also see more complementary players and fewer stars. At least by career WARP the ďstarĒ of the group is Radke and heís really more of a ďgood to very good for a long timeĒ player.

Draft Ė Rds 11-15
Rk  Team  Player          Level    WARP3   29WARP3  BA   Rd
19  Mil   Jeff Cirillo    AAA-AA    56.9     40.4        11
59  Mon   M Grudzielanek  AA-EL     33.2     16.2        11
64  Atl   Kevin Millwood  R-APPY    32.1     32.1        11
24  Det   Bob Higginson   AAA-IL    51.4     34.7        12
40  Minn  Matt Lawton     Hi-A-FSL  39.7     29.3        12
57  Mil   Tory OíLeary    AAA-AA    34                   13
38  Tor   Alex Gonzalez   AAA-IL    40.3     34.0    2   14
44  SF    Bill Mueller    Hi-A-CAL  38.5     19.0        15

Total: 8 players or 11% of Top 75

In draft studies I often talk about solid collegiate sleepers from the mid to late rounds. Cirillo, Grudzielanek, Higginson and Mueller are all nice examples of that type. Millwood is a nice example of the Braves philosophy of drafting as many HS kids as possible with the intent of developing a couple into quality players.

Draft Ė Rds 16-20
Rk  Team  Player          Level    WARP3   29WARP3  BA   Rd
9   Cle   Brian Giles     AAA-IL    65.8     31.3        17
60  Atl   Jermaine Dye    Lo-A-SAL  33.1     28.8    4   17
23  ChiAL Mike Cameron    Hi-A-CAR  51.4     37.6        18
66  StL   Placido Polanco Comp-AZL  30.5     30.5        19
65  Minn  Damien Miller   AA-SL     30.5     24.5        20

Total: 5 players or 7% of Top 75

At this point of the draft the successes are pretty random. Itís uncommon to find a player as good as Giles, but itís not shockingly so. This particular group is toolsier than you might expect, but thatís not really characteristic of these rounds.

Draft Ė Rds 21 and over
Rk  Team  Player          Level    WARP3   29WARP3  BA   Rd
52  Minn  Eddie Guardado  AAA-PCL   36.2     17.6        21
13  NYY   Andy Pettitte   AAA-IL    61.2     47.8        22
16  NYY   Jorge Posada    AAA-IL    58.0     30.7        24
37  Tex   Rich Aurilia    AA-TL     40.5     30.6        24
54  Cle   Richie Sexson   Lo-A-SAL  34.9     34.9        24
47  Minn  Cory Koskie     R-APPY    37.7     26.5        26
69  NYM   J Isringhausen  Hi-A-FSL  29.8     21.7    4   44

Total: 7 players or 9% of Top 75

This is another pretty random collection of players with the exception of Pettitte and Posada both of whom were signed as DFEs. In general, teams start using their picks around rd 20 to start mixing in some DFE candidates so youíd expect to see a couple successes. Guardado and Isringhausen are JC products. Sexson is a random late round HS star. Aurilia and Koskie are fairly typical solid late rd collegiate sleepers.

The overall pattern amongst drafted players is about what one would expect. There are a disproportionate number of players from the first round. The star players are generally clustered in the first few rounds. The big surprise is that the international group was as large and as good (better?) as the first round group. Nearly half of the players in the Top 75 were either first rd picks or international free agents. The percentage of star players from those groups would be even higher.


Sorted by HS::JC:C:International

Iíll start again just by repeating the group of international players.

Rk  Team  Player          Level    WARP3   29WARP3  BA   Rd
6   NYY   Mariano Rivera  AA-EL     66.6     30.0       PAN
7   Tor   Carlos Delgado  AAA-IL    66.2     41.7    3  PR
10  Atl   Andruw Jones    R-APP     65.8     65.8    2  CUR
15  Hou   Bob Abreu       AA-TL     59.2     49.0    6  VEN
17  Mon   Vlad Guerrero   Comp-GCL  56.8     56.8    4  DR
21  NYM   Edgardo Alfonzo AA-EL     54.8     50.6       VEN
22  Cle   Bartolo Colon   R-APPY    52.6     40.8       DR
27  ChiAL Magglio Ordonez Lo-A-SAL  47.0     45.0       VEN
29  Bal   Armando Benitez AA-EL     46.2     34.3    1  DR
30  Fla   Edgar Renteria  Hi-A-FSL  45.6     45.6       COL
34  LA    Ismael Valdes   AA-TL     42.0     40.2       MEX
35  Oak   Tony Batista    Hi-A-CAL  42.0     37.4       DR
39  Mon   Uggie Urbina    AA-EL     40.1     36.9       VEN
41  Pitt  Esteban Loaiza  AA-SL     39.5     23.5       MEX
45  Hou   Richard Hidalgo Lo-A-MWL  38.4     38.4    4  VEN
53  Tor   Kelvim Escobar  Comp-GCL  35.6     35.6       VEN
55  LA    Chan Ho Park    AA-TL     34.8     32.9   10  KOR
58  Bos   Matt Stairs     AA-EL     33.3      7.2       CAN
63  NYM   Quilvio Veras   AAA-IL    32.1     29.6       DR

Total: 19 players or 25% of Top 75

The short version of what I already said Ė itís big, itís very good.

High School
Rk  Team  Player          Level    WARP3   29WARP3  BA   Rd
1   Sea   Alex Rodriguez  Lo-A-MWL 104.2    104.2    1    1
2   PHL   Scott Rolen     Lo-A-SAL  75.0     75.0    9    2
4   Minn  Brad Radke      AA-SL     68.1     55.6         8
5   Tor   Shawn Green     AAA-IL    66.8     56.1    1    1
8   NYY   Derek Jeter     Hi-A-FSL  66.0     57.1    1    1
9   Cle   Brian Giles     AAA-IL    65.8     31.3        17
11  ChiAL Ray Durham      AAA-AA    62.8     46.0    4    5
12  Pitt  Jason Kendall   Hi-A-CAR  61.7     53.1         1
13  NYY   Andy Pettitte   AAA-IL    61.2     47.8        22
18  Cal   G Anderson      AAA-PCL   56.3     36.4    4    4
20  KC    Johnny Damon    Hi-A-CAR  54.9     46.5    1   1s
23  ChiAL Mike Cameron    Hi-A-CAR  51.4     37.6        18
28  Mon   Rondell White   AAA-IL    46.6     36.0         1
31  Sea   Derek Lowe      AA-SL     45.6     37.7         8
33  PHL   Mike Lieberthal AAA-IL    44.0     25.2         1
38  Tor   Alex Gonzalez   AAA-IL    40.3     34.0    2   14
42  KC    Mike Sweeney    Lo-A-MWL  39.0     35.9        10
43  Fla   Carl Everett    AAA-PCL   38.7     27.2         1
46  Tor   Shannon Stewart Lo-A-SAL  38.2     35.5    6    1
48  SD    Derrek Lee      Hi-A-CAL  37.6     37.6    4    1
51  Atl   Jason Schmidt   AA-SL     36.8     19.7         8
54  Cle   Richie Sexson   Lo-A-SAL  34.9     34.9        24
56  Bal   Arthur Rhodes   AAA-IL    34.0     18.4         2
57  Mil   Tory OíLeary    AAA-AA    34                   13
61  Bos   Jeff Suppan     Hi-A-FSL  32.9     32.9   10    2
62  Mon   Jose Vidro      Hi-A-FSL  32.2     32.2         6
64  Atl   Kevin Millwood  R-APPY    32.1     32.1        11
67  Det   Tony Clark      AA-EL     30.5     28.4         1
70  Bos   Trot Nixon      Hi-A-CAR  29.6     28.0    6    1
71  StL   Dmitri Young    AA-TL     29.4     26.5         1
73  ChiNL Frank Castillo  AAA-AA    29.1     15.8         6
74  Minn  LaTroy Hawkins  AA-SL     28.2     17.5    2    7
75  Cle   David Bell      AAA-IL    28.1     21.0    9    7

Total: 33 players or 44% of Top 75

Just under half of the Top 75 players were HS picks and if I excluded the international players it would be nearly 60% of the draft eligible players. The drafts of the early 90s strongly leaned towards HS players so itís not too surprising that most of the best players in the minors in 1994 were HS draft products. Perhaps that would have been more surprising prior to Rany Jazayerliís recent draft studies, but thatís the life of a procrastinator I suppose.

Jazeryerli found that the gap between C and HS draft picks narrowed quite a bit between the two periods he studied Ė 1984-1991 and 1992-1999. By presenting just those two time periods, however, he missed the suddenness of the change. The drafts from the mid to late 1980s were completely and overwhelmingly dominated by college players, but for whatever reasons there was a dramatic change in the early 90s. As a result, when you look at the minors in 1994 you donít see a gradual narrowing of the HS:C gap; you see a sudden, striking reversal.

Junior College
Rk  Team  Player          Level    WARP3   29WARP3  BA   Rd
16  NYY   Jorge Posada    AAA-IL    58.0     30.7        24
40  Minn  Matt Lawton     Hi-A-FSL  39.7     29.3        12
52  Minn  Eddie Guardado  AAA-PCL   36.2     17.6        21
60  Atl   Jermaine Dye    Lo-A-SAL  33.1     28.8    4   17
66  StL   Placido Polanco Comp-AZL  30.5     30.5        19
68  Minn  Marty Cordova   AAA-PCL   30.0     22.8        10
69  NYM   J Isringhausen  Hi-A-FSL  29.8     21.7    4   44

Total: 7 players or 9% of Top 75

This an expectedly small group of players most of whom where drafted between rounds 10-25.

College
Rk  Team  Player          Level    WARP3   29WARP3  BA   Rd
3   Oak   Jason Giambi    AA-SL     70.8     39.1         2
14  Bos   N Garciaparra   Hi-A-FSL  61.0     58.0         1
19  Mil   Jeff Cirillo    AAA-AA    56.9     40.4        11
24  Det   Bob Higginson   AAA-IL    51.4     34.7        12
25  Fla   Charles Johnson AA-EL     50.1     41.1    2    1
26  Cal   Troy Percival   AAA-PCL   48.2     25.8         6
32  Hou   Billy Wagner    Lo-A-MWL  45.1     27.4    2    1
36  Mil   Mark Loretta    AA-TL     41.3     19.5         7
37  Tex   Rich Aurilia    AA-TL     40.5     30.6        24
44  SF    Bill Mueller    Hi-A-CAL  38.5     19.0        15
47  Minn  Cory Koskie     R-APPY    37.7     26.5        26
49  Hou   Phil Nevin      AAA-PCL   37.0     16.4         1
50  Tex   Rick Helling    AAA-AA    36.9     26.8         1
59  Mon   M Grudzielanek  AA-EL     33.2     16.2        11
65  Minn  Damien Miller   AA-SL     30.5     24.5        20
72  Col   Curt Leskanic   AAA-PCL   29.3      9.9         8

Total: 16 players or 21% of Top 75

In comparison the the HS ranks there were half the number of college players in the Top 75. And befitting the stereotype of college players as lower ceiling, but safer there are only three star players (Giambi, Garciaparra and Wagner) and a large group of solid players.

#2 philly sox fan


  • SoSH Member


  • 9748 posts

Posted 12 October 2005 - 05:20 PM

Part 2: Players Sorted by Team

For my draft studies Iíve ranked teams by the cumulative WARP produced by their draft classes. That method has an obvious limitation in that three 10 WARP players have mathematical equal value to one 30 WARP player and in reality thatís just not true. Nevertheless, I think it provides a decent ranking as long as you donít get too caught up in small differences. This study has an additional problem doing that because I was admittedly loose about including players at the very bottom of the scale. A team rank will be a little muddled by how complete I happened to be for that particular organization.

For this study (and probably in general too) I thought it would be more informative to first rank organizations by the number of ďusefulĒ and ďgoodĒ players that were in the minor league pipeline. In the past Iíve used 20 WARP as a benchmark for a useful career and 40 WARP for a good career. Theyíre not perfect criteria, but they do a pretty good job. The number of ďusefulĒ players produced by a team is a good proxy for the depth of the farm system. The number of ďgoodĒ players is a good proxy for the potential impact of a farm system.

Iíll sort the teams both by number of 20 WARP players and number of 40 WARP players. A couple things to note are that most players who will reach 20 WARP already have at this point so I wouldnít expect the first ranking to change much, but a number of players currently in the 20 WARP group will eventually reach 40 WARP. And if itís not clear, the 40 WARP players are also included in the 20 WARP group.

Teams Sorted by Number of ďUsefulĒ Players
Team      20     40
MINN      10      1
CLE        7      2
NYM        7      1
NYY        6      4
TOR        6      3
MIL        6      2
LA         6      1
MON        5      3
HOU        5      2
DET        5      1
CWS        4      3
FLA        4      2
OAK        4      2
PHL        4      2
ATL        4      1
KC         4      1
PITT       4      1
COL        4      0
BOS        4      1
SEA        3      2
CUB        3      0
CINN       3      0
SD         3      0
CAL        2      2
BAL        2      1
SF         2      1
TEX        2      1
STL        2      0

Thereís a pretty even distribution within the range of 2-7 players. The single biggest group with nine is right in the middle with four useful players. There are nine teams below that group and ten teams above.

As Iíve hopefully already said a few times I have no idea how representative this particular year is, but a good guess for how many ďusefulĒ players any particular team will produce from its farm seems to be 4 +/- 3.

The Twins are a significant outlier with ten players though that accomplishment might appear somewhat empty with just one player in the more important 40 WARP group. Iíll get to the details in a minute, but thatís partly a fluke.

Teams Sorted by Number of ďGoodĒ Players
Team      20     40
NYY        6      4
TOR        6      3
MON        5      3
CWS        4      3
CLE        7      2
MIL        6      2
HOU        5      2
FLA        4      2
OAK        4      2
PHL        4      2
SEA        3      2
CAL        2      2
MINN      10      1
NYM        7      1
LA         6      1
DET        5      1
ATL        4      1
KC         4      1
PITT       4      1
BOS        4      1
BAL        2      1
SF         2      1
TEX        2      1
COL        4      0
CUB        3      0
CINN       3      0
SD         3      0
STL        2      0

Ten years after this 1994 minor league snapshot, over 2/3 of the teams have produced just one or two ďgoodĒ players. There are five teams below them with zero ďgoodĒ players and four teams above with three or four ďgoodĒ players. By virtue of having four 40 WARP players the Yankees had the most impact players and therefore the best farm system in baseball in 1994. Those four players Ė Rivera, Jeter, Pettitte and Posada Ė joined Bernie Williams, who was already in NY, to form the home grown core of their late 90s dynasty.

I thought it would be interesting to look in detail at the Twins example of a very deep farm system and Yankees example of a high impact farm system. The two teams will rank 1 and 2 in the overall ranking, but how they produced those high cumulative totals is quite different.

This is a list of the Twins players that I recorded.
Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Minn  Brad Radke        AA-SL      68.1     55.6
Minn  Matt Lawton       Hi-A-FSL   39.7     29.3
Minn  Cory Koskie       R-APPY     37.7     26.5
Minn  Eddie Guardado    AAA-PCL    36.2     17.6
Minn  Damien Miller     AA-SL      30.5     24.5
Minn  Marty Cordova     AAA-PCL    30.0     22.8
Minn  LaTroy Hawkins    AA-SL      28.2     17.5        2
Minn  Torii Hunter      Lo-A-MWL   27.5     27.5
Minn  Todd Walker       Hi-A-FSL   27.2     20.9        7
Minn  AJ Pierzynski     Comp-GCL   23.8     23.8
Minn  Rich Becker       AAA-PCL    18.9     18.9
Minn  Rich Garces       AA-SL      13.2     10.9
                          Total:  381.0

You can see that the 40 WARP dividing line can be a little arbitrary as Lawton, Koskie and Guardado barely missed and all should be over now. Additionally, there are some low minors players (Hunter, Walker, Pierzynski) that will probably make it as well. These players formed the backbone of the Twins recent AL Central winners, but there arenít necessarily any individual impact players.

This is the list of Yankee players.
Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
NYY   Mariano Rivera    AA-EL      66.6     30.0     
NYY   Derek Jeter       Hi-A-FSL   66.0     57.1        1
NYY   Andy Pettitte     AAA-IL     61.2     47.8
NYY   Jorge Posada      AAA-IL     58.0     30.7
NYY   Ramiro Mendoza    Hi-A-FSL   25.8     20.2
NYY   S Hitchcock       AAA-IL     23.1     20.3
NYY   B Boehringer      AA-EL      13.2      7.4
NYY   Shane Spencer     Hi-A-FSL   11.6      6.9
NYY   Rickey Ledee      Lo-A-SAL   10.3      9.2
                          Total:  335.8

The Yankee quartet didnít just exceed my 40 WARP criteria, they all nearly exceeded 60 WARP and really only Posada is showing signs of slowing down. Rivera and Jeter should pass 100 WARP on the way to the HoF and Pettitte and even Posada could clear 80 WARP on the way to the Hall of Very Good. In terms of impact players the 1994 Yankees had a farm system that was significantly better than every other team in baseball.

Behind those four stars are just generic role players with an unusual number of WS rings. As a result of that unfortunate lack of farm depth, the Twins group has so far produced a pretty substantial 45 WARP edge. And thatís part of the reason why cumulative WARP totals can be deceiving.

And just because weíre Sox fans here is the state of the Sox farm at the end of 1994.
Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Bos   Nomar Garciapa    Hi-A-FSL   61.0     58.0
Bos   Matt Stairs       AA-EL      33.3      7.2
Bos   Jeff Suppan       Hi-A-FSL   32.9     32.9
Bos   Trot Nixon        Hi-A-CAR   29.6     28.0        6
Bos   Scott Hatteberg   AAA-IL     19.7     10.2
Bos   Frank Rodriguez   AAA-IL     12.6     12.6
Bos   Ron Mahay         Hi-A-FSL    8.4      3.5
Bos   Rafael Betancourt R-GCL       5.1      5.1

The Red Sox farm in the early 1990s was pretty barren. Wayne Britton was hired as scouting director for the 1993 draft and was retained when Dan Duquette was hired as GM in Jan 1994. They did a remarkable job of quickly infusing talent into the farm system. The 1994 draft produced a star in Garciaparra. The 1993 draft produced a couple solid players in Suppan and Nixon. A third solid player, Matt Stairs, came into the organization as a minor league free agent from Duquetteís former organization. A couple of Gorman holdovers Ė Hatteberg and Betancourt Ė have had useful complementary careers.

To have an average farm system you want to be able to produce 1-3 ďgoodĒ players out of a total of 2-7 ďusefulĒ players. The 1994 Sox farm system succeeded in doing that with just players brought in from June 93 to June 94. Thatís an impressive burst of talent though the effect of that burst wasnít felt at the MLB level until the late 90s. In any kind of draft or minor league study you always have to be aware of the huge time lag that often exists between talent acquisition and MLB productivity.

Teams Ranked by Cumulative WARP3
Rk   Team     WARP3    20    40
1    Minn     381.0    10     1
2    NYY      335.8     6     4
3    Cle      299.0     7     2
4    Tor      287.0     6     3  
5    SEA      278.5     3     2
6    NYM      275.0     7     1
7    Hou      256.7     5     2
8    Mon      240.4     5     3
9    Atl      236.6     4     1
10   CWS      207.3     4     3
11   Bos      202.6     4     1
12   Mil      195.9     6     2
13   LA       194.1     6     1
14   Oak      192.2     4     2
15   Bal      187.1     2     1
16   Fla      176.4     4     2
17   Det      169.4     5     1
18   PHL      169.3     4     2
19   PITT     164.8     4     1
20   Cal      162.7     2     2
21   KC       141.8     4     1
22   Col      131.9     4     0
23   SF       109.0     2     1
24   StL      102.5     2     0
25   SD        97.4     3     0
26   Cinn      91.1     3     0
27   Tex       87.9     2     1
28   Cub       79.7     3     0

The median teams are right around ~190 WARP. Teams 10-20 are clustered pretty tightly between 163-207 WARP. The eight teams below that cluster average ~105 WARP. The nine teams above average 288 WARP. Over a ten year period thatís a pretty big advantage. Not surprisingly there is a lot more spread amongst the top teams as good and great players can produce a very high and wide range of totals. Thereís much more clustering at the bottom as every team has a few useful players kicking around their farm systems.

Every Player, Every Team Ė The Show your Work Addendum

One of the things that I find frustrating about baseball research articles on the internet is that people donít completely show their work. Itís a necessity for printed articles where there will be space limitations, but the whole point if the web is that there arenít those kinds of limitations. Iím sure I put way too many tables within the body of these kinds of pieces to have them really flow very well, but I like the transparency of showing my work. Maybe I oversold a conclusion and someone will point it out? Maybe I missed a connection and a new set of eyes will see something interesting? Itís the web. If youíre not trying to sell your work, then show your work.

At some point I wanted to post everyone I looked up and this seems a reasonable place to do it. The teams are listed in order of they their cumulative WARP rank. Iím going to try to refrain from anything more than a quick comment after each team. Iíll note one thing. Yesterday Lahoud asked if it was possible to correlate these productivity totals to the subjective BA rankings from 1994. I canít do that, but those BA rankings are usually driven by the kinds of top prospects that show up on the BA League Top 10 lists. I think you can use the number of prospects on the BA league lists as a crude proxy for what BA might have thought of the system at the time.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Minn  Brad Radke        AA-SL      68.1     55.6
Minn  Matt Lawton       Hi-A-FSL   39.7     29.3
Minn  Cory Koskie       R-APPY     37.7     26.5
Minn  Eddie Guardado    AAA-PCL    36.2     17.6
Minn  Damien Miller     AA-SL      30.5     24.5
Minn  Marty Cordova     AAA-PCL    30.0     22.8
Minn  LaTroy Hawkins    AA-SL      28.2     17.5        2
Minn  Torii Hunter      Lo-A-MWL   27.5     27.5
Minn  Todd Walker       Hi-A-FSL   27.2     20.9        7
Minn  AJ Pierzynski     Comp-GCL   23.8     23.8
Minn  Rich Becker       AAA-PCL    18.9     18.9
Minn  Rich Garces       AA-SL      13.2     10.9
                          Total:  381.0

See above. Thatís a quick comment.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
NYY   Mariano Rivera    AA-EL      66.6     30.0     
NYY   Derek Jeter       Hi-A-FSL   66.0     57.1        1
NYY   Andy Pettitte     AAA-IL     61.2     47.8
NYY   Jorge Posada      AAA-IL     58.0     30.7
NYY   Ramiro Mendoza    Hi-A-FSL   25.8     20.2
NYY   S Hitchcock       AAA-IL     23.1     20.3
NYY   B Boehringer      AA-EL      13.2      7.4
NYY   Shane Spencer     Hi-A-FSL   11.6      6.9
NYY   Rickey Ledee      Lo-A-SAL   10.3      9.2
                          Total:  335.8

See above. This one too. It looks like BA missed the high impact nature of this farm though.
Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Cle   Brian Giles       AAA-IL     65.8     31.3    
Cle   Bartolo Colon     R-APPY     52.6     40.8
Cle   Richie Sexson     Lo-A-SAL   34.9     34.9
Cle   David Bell        AAA-IL     28.1     21.0        9
Cle   Paul Shuey        AAA-IL     23.8     15.5
Cle   Steve Kline       Lo-A-SAL   22.5     17.1
Cle   Paul Byrd         AA-EL      21.8      8.3
Cle   Einar Diaz        Lo-A-SAL   18.9     16.2        7
Cle   Jaret Wright      R-APPY     15.7     15.7        3
Cle   Alan Embree       AA-EL      14.9      6.1
                          Total:  299.0

A few BA mentions, but the three best players were pretty much under the radar prospects. Nice blend of premium players and depth.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Tor   Shawn Green       AAA-IL     66.8     56.1        1
Tor   Carlos Delgado    AAA-IL     66.2     41.7        3
Tor   Alex Gonzalez     AAA-IL     40.3     34.0        2
Tor   Shannon Stewart   Lo-A-SAL   38.2     35.5        6
Tor   Kelvim Escobar    Comp-GCL   35.6     35.6
Tor   Chris Carpenter   R-Pio      24.5     24.5        3
Tor   Chris Stynes      AA-SL      15.4     12.9
                          Total:  287.0

I think itís safe to say BA liked the Tor system and that panned out. What happened to Toronto in the 90s anyway? At the end of 1994 they had won the previous two WS, they had massive revenues from huge attendance at their then state of the art park and they had a very good farm system that mostly panned out. Killed by the strike? Gord Ash?

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Sea   Alex Rodriguez    Lo-A-MWL  104.2    104.2        1
Sea   Derek Lowe        AA-SL      45.6     37.7
Sea   Shawn Estes       R-NWL      27.6     23.2
Sea   Jim Mecir         AA-SL      19.4      6.5
Sea   Darren Bragg      AAA-PCL    18.3     15.9
Sea   Raul Ibanez       Lo-A-MWL   17.2      3.5
Sea   Matt Mantei       Lo-A-MWL   16.2     15.3
Sea   Ron Villone       AA-SL      16.1      6.7
Sea   Desi Relaford     Hi-A-CAL   13.9     12.7        2
                          Total:  278.5

If you have an inner circle HoF player, youíve got a good farm. Lucked out with Lowe except for the trading him part. Not much besides those too.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
NYM   Edgardo Alfonzo   AA-EL      54.8     50.6
NYM   Quilvio Veras     AAA-IL     32.1     29.6
NYM   Jason Izzy        Hi-A-FSL   29.8     21.7         4
NYM   Mike Remlinger    AAA-IL     26.6      1.0
NYM   Preston Wilson    Lo-A-SAL   24.7     24.7
NYM   Jay Payton        R-NYPL     21.6     10.5
NYM   Rico Brogna       AAA-IL     20.9     21.0
NYM   Rey Ordonez       Hi-A-FSL   19.2     17.5         2
NYM   Terrence Long     R-APPY     17.6     17.6         4 
NYM   Brian Daubach     Hi-A-FSL   15.4     10.6
NYM   Butch Huskey      AAA-IL     12.3     12.3
                          Total:  275.0

Mets are kind of a lesser version of the Twins. They have a pretty high ranking, but the best player is good not great and thereís a lot of 20-ish WARP ďusefulĒ guys. Pulsipher and Wilson were in the Mets farm. I probably didnít bother with Pulse because he wasnít very good and either Wilson didnít pitch much or I just missed him. Mets probably had a lot of Generation K hype that didnít pan out.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Hou   Bob Abreu         AA-TL      59.2    49.0         6
Hou   Billy Wagner      Lo-A-MWL   45.1    27.4         2
Hou   Richard Hidalgo   Lo-A-MWL   38.4    38.4         4
Hou   Phil Nevin        AAA-PCL    37.0    16.4
Hou   Melvin Mora       Hi-A-FSL   27.7     6.6
Hou   Brian Hunter      AAA-PCL    19.3    16.1         1
Hou   John Halama       Lo-A-MWL   18.0    10.7
Hou   Scott Elarton     Comp-GCL   12.0    12.0         2
                          Total:  256.7

This is a very solid farm with a lot of BA ranked players. Biggest issue is losing Abreu in the expansion draft.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Mon   Vlad Guerrero     Comp-GCL   56.8     56.8        4
Mon   Rondell White     AAA-IL     46.6     36.0
Mon   Uggie Urbina      AA-EL      40.1     36.9
Mon   Mark Grdzil       AA-EL      33.2     16.2
Mon   Jose Vidro        Hi-A-FSL   32.2     32.2
Mon   Gabe White        AAA-IL     17.7     13.2
Mon   FP Santangelo     AAA-IL     13.8      9.2
                          Total:  240.4

Montreal will end up with one superstar and four others who clear 40 WARP. Not much depth behind them, but a pretty good high end.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Atl   Andruw Jones      R-APP      65.8    65.8         2
Atl   Jason Schmidt     AA-SL      36.8    19.7
Atl   Jermaine Dye      Lo-A-SAL   33.1    28.8         4
Atl   Kevin Millwood    Lo-A-SAL   32.1    32.1
Atl   Tony Graffanino   AA-SL      17.6     9.6
Atl   Esteban Yan       Lo-A-SAL   17.5    17.5
Atl   Eddie Perez       AAA-IL     11.3     2.2
Atl   Bruce Chen        Comp-GCL    8.8     8.8
Atl   Tyler Houston     AAA-IL      7.4     3.8
Atl   Randall Simon     Lo-A-SAL    6.2     6.2
                          Total:  236.6

Pretty good top four made up of an international signing and three teenafe draft picks from the 8th rd and later.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
ChiAL Ray Durham        AAA-AA     62.8     46.0        4
ChiAL Mike Cameron      Hi-A-CAR   51.4     37.6
ChiAL Magglio Ordonez   Lo-A-SAL   47.0     45.0
ChiAL James Baldwin     AAA-AA     26.4     24.9        1
ChiAL Mike Sirotka      Lo-A-MWL   19.7     19.7
                          Total:  207.3

Very little depth, but three very good tools into performance successes.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Bos   Nomar Garciapa    Hi-A-FSL   61.0     58.0
Bos   Matt Stairs       AA-EL      33.3      7.2
Bos   Jeff Suppan       Hi-A-FSL   32.9     32.9
Bos   Trot Nixon        Hi-A-CAR   29.6     28.0        6
Bos   Scott Hatteberg   AAA-IL     19.7     10.2
Bos   Frank Rodriguez   AAA-IL     12.6     12.6
Bos   Ron Mahay         Hi-A-FSL    8.4      3.5
Bos   Rafael Betancourt R-GCL       5.1      5.1
                          Total:  202.6

See above.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Mil   Jeff Cirillo      AAA-AA     56.9     40.4
Mil   Mark Loretta      AA-TL      41.3     19.5
Mil   Troy OíLeary      AAA-AA     34
Mil   Scott Karl        AAA-AA     21.7     21.7
Mil   Cory Lidle        Lo-A-MWL   21.3      9.8
Mil   Ron Belliard      Comp-AZL   20.7     20.7
                          Total:  195.9

No BA ranked players. The best were under the radr late rd grinder types. An average farm without any premium prospects coming through. I guess thatís kind of a best case scenario for a low upside farm.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
LA    Ismael Valdes     AA-TL      42.0     40.2
LA    Chan Ho Park      AA-TL      34.8     32.9       10
LA    Paul LoDuca       Hi-A-CAL   27.8     10.1
LA    Omar Daal         AAA-PCL    27.3     21.9
LA    Paul Konerko      R-NWL      23.6     23.6        2
LA    Roger Cedeno      AAA-PCL    20.2     20.2        5
LA    Darren Dreifort   AA-TL      18.4     15.4        1
                          Total:  194.1

A good number of BA rankings, but now breakthrough stars. Konerko could change that I guess. Or he may join Park and Dreifort on lists of worst FA signings.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Oak   Jason Giambi      AA-SL      70.8     39.1
Oak   Tony Batista      Hi-A-CAL   42.0     37.4
Oak   Ben Grieve        R-NWL      26.3     26.3        1
Oak   Scott Spiezio     Hi-A-CAL   25.1     18.9        5
Oak   John Wasdin       AA-SL      14.7     14.8        4
Oak   Tanyon Sturtze    AA-SL      13.3      1.8
                          Total:  192.2

Giambi pretty much carries this group. The Grieve implosion makes this a pretty thin group. Batista isnít as good as WARP total either.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Bal   Armando Benitez   AA-EL      46.2     34.3        1
Bal   Arthur Rhodes     AAA-IL     34.0     18.4
Bal   Jimmy Haynes      AA-EL      19.4     19.2
Bal   Alex Ochoa        AA-EL      14.9     12.1        8
Bal   Jay Powell        Hi-A-CAR   14.6     13.0
Bal   G Stephenson      Hi-A-CAR   14.1     10.0
Bal   Gregg Zaun        AAA-IL     13.7      8.6
Bal   Damon Buford      AAA-IL     11.5      9.1
Bal   Curtis Goodwin    AA-EL       3.8      3.8
                          Total:  187.1

Only notable players are relievers, but still manages to rank as an average farm.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Fla   Charles Johnson   AA-EL      50.1     41.1        2
Fla   Edgar Renteria    Hi-A-FSL   45.6     45.6
Fla   Carl Everett      AAA-PCL    38.7     27.2
Fla   Kevin Millar      Lo-A-MWL   27.2     11.2
Fla   Mike Redmond      Lo-A-MWL   14.8      6.7
                          Total:  176.4

Three pretty good players at the top, but no real star and not much depth.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Det   Bob Higginson     AAA-IL     51.4    34.7
Det   Tony Clark        AA-EL      30.5    28.4
Det   Brian Moehler     Hi-A-FSL   24.4    23.4
Det   Jose Lima         AAA-IL     24.3    18.5
Det   Juan Encarnacion  R-APPY     21.0    21.0
Det   Frank Catalanotto Lo-A-SAL   17.8    16.5
                          Total:  169.4

Higginson and Clark arenít much of a top two. Somebody should have told randy Smith.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
PHL   Scott Rolen       Lo-A-SAL   75.0     75.0        9
PHL   Mike Lieby        AAA-IL     44.0     25.2
PHL   Rickey Bottalico  AA-EL      25.8     16.9
PHL   Mike Williams     AAA-IL     24.5      8.2
                          Total:  169.3

One premium prospect that panned out and a decent catcher from a barren farm. A lot of pressure on Rolen to make it and he did.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Pitt  Jason Kendall     Hi-A-CAR   61.7     53.1
Pitt  Esteban Loaiza    AA-SL      39.5     23.5
Pitt  Tony Womack       AAA-AA     22.7     13.9
Pitt  Kevin Young       AAA-AA     21.5     10.9
Pitt  Jose Guillen      Comp-GCL   19.4     19.4
                          Total:  164.8

Most teams at this point seem to be one pretty good player, a solid second guy and not much else.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Cal   Garrett Anderson  AAA-PCL    56.3     36.4        4
Cal   Troy Percival     AAA-PCL    48.2     25.8
Cal   Benjy Molina      Lo-A-MWL   19.9     19.9
Cal   Bill Simas        Hi-A-CAL   14.4     14.4
Cal   Orlando Palmerio  AAA-PCL    12.4      2.4
Cal   Jorge Fabregas    AAA-PCL    11.5      9.6
                          Total:  162.7

Angels fit that too.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
KC    Johnny Damon      Hi-A-CAR   54.9     46.5        1 
KC    Mike Sweeney      Lo-A-MWL   39.0     35.9
KC    Mike Tucker       AAA-AA     27.6     16.4        7
KC    Glendon Rusch     Lo-A-MWL   20.3     20.3
                          Total:  141.8

A nice top two, but not much else.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Col   Curt Leskanic     AAA-PCL    29.3     9.9
Col   John Thomson      Lo-A-SAL   25.1    20.2
Col   Neifi Perez       Hi-A-CAL   24.2    19.2
Col   Craig Counsell    AA-EL      23.1     8.5
Col   Juan Acevedo      AA-EL      16.6     7.5
Col   Quinten McCracken AA-EL      13.6    11.1
                          Total:  131.9

Er, Leskanic has a ring? Thatís about all Iíve got.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3
SF    Keith Foulke      R-NWL      42.0     26.2
SF    Bill Mueller      Hi-A-CAL   38.5     19.0
SF    Bobby Howry       Lo-A-MWL   16.9     14.3
SF    Doug Mirabelli    AA-TL      11.6      3.4
                          Total:  109.0

What a segue, because lots of these guys have rings too. Three guys from the 2004 champs and even Howry was briefly a Sox. Donít forget to thank whoever was running the Giants player development program in the early to mid-90s too.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
StL   Placido Polanco   Comp-AZL   30.5     30.5
StL   Dmitri Young      AA-TL      29.4     26.5
StL   John Mabry        AAA-AA     15.3      9.6
StL   Eli Marrero       Lo-A-SAL   15.0     11.6
StL   Jay Witasick      Lo-A-MWL   12.3      9.5
                          Total:  102.5

When a random late rd pick who was in the GCL is your best player, then you didnít have much of a farm.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
SD    Derrek Lee        Hi-A-CAL   37.6     37.6        4
SD    D Hermanson       AA-TL      25.4     20.6        3
SD    Matt Clement      Comp-AZL   23.6     23.6
SD    Homer Bush        Hi-A-CAL   10.8     10.9
                          Total:   97.4

No depth, but a star position player and a couple solid pitchers isnít bad.



Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Cinn  Aaron Boone       R-PIO      27.2     19.5        1
Cinn  Pokey Reese       AA-SL      21.9     20.0        3
Cinn  Scott Sullivan    AA-SL      20.2     12.2
Cinn  Willie Greene     AAA-AA     13.8     13.8        2
Cinn  Chad Fox          Hi-A-CAR    8.0      1.9
                          Total:   91.1

This looks like an organization BA probably liked a lot with two premium prospects from the high minors. Both tanked.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
Tex   Rich Aurilia      AA-TL      40.5     30.6
Tex   Rick Helling      AAA-AA     36.9     26.8
Tex   Scott Podsednik   Comp-GCL   10.5     10.5
                          Total:   87.9

Not much here and Aurilia was traded away as a throw in.

Team  Player            Level      WARP3   29WARP3     BA
ChiNL Frank Castillo    AAA-AA     29.1     15.8
ChiNL Doug Glanville    AA-SL      25.3     17.9
ChiNL Terry Adams       Hi-A-FSL   25.3     20.1
                          Total:   79.7

Cubs are consistently at the bottom of my draft studies from the late 80s to early 90s so itís no surprise theyíre at the bottom here too. Cubs were just a terrible, terrible organization.

Every one of these teams probably had fans that saw complete lineups and starting rotations percolating in the minors. In reality, if you can plug 3-5 holes with pretty good players from your farm system youíre doing very well. Thatís also another reason why deep organizational rebuilds and shiny futures based on revitalized minor leagues are so difficult to do successfully. It takes several drafts to restock a farm. And once the farm is restocked thereís such attrition from minor league prospect to useful major leaguer. Itís hard and any GM who wants to succeed that way had better be out making and winning trades and signing whatever quality free agents he can afford.

#3 MainerInExile

  • 4392 posts

Posted 12 October 2005 - 05:51 PM

This is really fantastic.

One thing that occurs to me is this gives us a good idea of who drafts/signs int FAs well. It would be interesting to see who evaluates their own talent well. For example, who traded prospects who didn't turn out well, and kept the good ones? Who did the opposite?

#4 Steve Dillard


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Posted 13 October 2005 - 04:27 PM

Jazeryerli found that the gap between C and HS draft picks narrowed quite a bit between the two periods he studied Ė 1984-1991 and 1992-1999. By presenting just those two time periods, however, he missed the suddenness of the change. The drafts from the mid to late 1980s were completely and overwhelmingly dominated by college players, but for whatever reasons there was a dramatic change in the early 90s. As a result, when you look at the minors in 1994 you donít see a gradual narrowing of the HS:C gap; you see a sudden, striking reversal.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I believe this coincides with the dramatic inflation of signing bonuses in or around 1989. Suddenly the option of signing vs. college for a first round talent went from a $300,000 to $800,000 proposition. With all the signing money floating around, its no surprise more HSers chose to bypass college.

#5 philly sox fan


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Posted 13 October 2005 - 04:52 PM

I believe this coincides with the dramatic inflation of signing bonuses in or around 1989.  Suddenly the option of signing vs. college for a first round talent went from a $300,000 to $800,000 proposition.  With all the signing money floating around, its no surprise more HSers chose to bypass college.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I think that's a big part of it. Both here and within one of Jazayerli's BP articles Jim Callis mentioned that there were also signficant changes in the college game with respect to scholarships. So at the same time agents were extracting huge sums from pro teams that college option became less attractive. That's a pretty strong combination.

#6 yecul


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Posted 14 October 2005 - 11:13 AM

All this has been great stuff. It's hard to reply because... well, it's all so intimidating. Anyway...

The one thing that I have to keep reminding myself is that this represents a very small percentage of minor leaguers as a whole. The vast majority of them won't make it.

Another thing is opportunity. The Twins developed 10 useful players, but they also have a small budget and constantly have to look within. I'm sure many teams could have racked up higher numbers by plugging in a few role players or using an internal reliever/starter over a FA veteran. Looking at quality vs quantity of high value players is certainly the way to go, IMO. The Yankees blew everyone away as far as I'm concerned.

The other point gets back to the first one -- crapshoot. Many of the players weren't ranked. Many of them were scattered throughout the draft. There are very few sure things in baseball.

#7 philly sox fan


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Posted 16 October 2005 - 08:17 AM

The one thing that I have to keep reminding myself is that this represents a very small percentage of minor leaguers as a whole.  The vast majority of them won't make it.


There should be roughly 150x30 or 4500 minor leaguers. If you take this year as fairly representative, then you're looking at 75 or 1.7% that become good players and another 1-2% that have semi-useful careers. Something like that anyway.

Another thing is opportunity.  The Twins developed 10 useful players, but they also have a small budget and constantly have to look within.  I'm sure many teams could have racked up higher numbers by plugging in a few role players or using an internal reliever/starter over a FA veteran.  Looking at quality vs quantity of high value players is certainly the way to go, IMO.  The Yankees blew everyone away as far as I'm concerned.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Yeah, opportunity is a tough thing to consider and that's especially true of the low end 15-25 WARP players. Organizations like KC give lousy players the opportunities to accumulate some WARP totals for teams that are lousy precisely because they play lousy players. That effect should be reduced as you look at higher cutoffs. The Twins players ended up being pretty solid, but some other organizations may have only produced bad players who could play on bad teams.