173 replies to this topic

[Gambler7]

Adhering to commissioner Bud Selig's request that no major announcements take place during the World Series, Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein had no comment last night when asked about the news that reliever Mike Timlin has agreed to a one-year deal to remain with the team.

According to the information filed on Timlin's behalf with the Players Association, the 40-year-old setup man will receive a salary of $2.8 million, plus incentives.

http://www.boston.co...o_japan_is_off/

I know this has been a big topic of conversation, and it seems official that he will be back.

[soxfaninyankeeland]

Timlin's ability to strike hitters out took a huge decline last year (K/9 4.22 against a career mark of 6.62 and 6.61 in 2005), and he is no longer the ground ball pitcher he used to be (.93 G/F last year, the first time in his career that it was below 1.00). This is a mistake.

[someoneanywhere]

I'm not sure I'd go as far to call it a mistake -- though you may very well be right, SFYL. The money is at the high end, I agree, and I certainly for one was nowhere near as confident in him last year as in years past. But with all the turmoil in the pen, an investment in Timlin at least offers some certainty. We know, for instance, that he can handle Boston (see: Seanez, Rudy). We know, too, that he will be DL'ed or shelved for 10-14 days at least once and probably twice during the season: but at this stage, I would think no one expects him to blow out an elbow or something. And I think one has to balance his performance -- which was inconsistent last year in part due to the broader implosion of the pen -- with his role. I see a two-headed set-up monster coming: Timlin every other day, with one of the young power arms getting the days in between.

Clearly, too, the FO sees worth (literally, given those $$) in his coaching and mentoring the young guys.

[DJnVa]

I wouldn't call it a mistake until we know his role. As a 6th or 7th inning guy he can be servicable. I would like to think his days of hi-lev 8th and 9th innings are pretty much behind him.

As much as relief pitching is a crap-shoot, I'm sure part of this is the "devil you know".

[FelixMantilla]

Holy crap. I thought you were supposed to learn from your mistakes? If last year is any indication, Timlin is toast. Not a good way to start the offseason.

[Dewy4PrezII]

This is a small risk. The money can easily be absorbed if he is in fact toast and as poor as he was he was the 3rd best reliever in the pen last year. This is a low risk move as long as they are not relying on him to be the primary set up man. I am fine with this move as long as the next move is to pick up a relief ace and a set up man. If Timlin is considered the 3rd man out of the pen on opening day with the possibility that Delcarmen and Hansen can slide ahead of him if their performance warrants it then this is a good move.

[sfip]

I'm a little surprised they were willing to pay him this much of a guaranteed minimum at this stage of his career. I probably shouldn't be, given how dependent they have been on him during his time here and given how dependable he has been during most of it.

It's obvious that his health contributed to the problems he had this year. Hopefully an offseason to heal is what he needs. I would have thought that trying to get him to sign a minor league deal with a chance to make the major league roster by proving in spring training that he can still pitch effectively would have made more sense, but I guess that wasn't an option. At least this contract has some incentives as opposed to being fully guaranteed.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I think it's pretty clear that I'm in favor of this move; he did suck down the stretch (although not quite as bad as the young studs) but he's been declared dead before and come back. I think the guaranteed money is a bit high, but he's a guy who clearly loves Boston and I've always admired his approach. His stuff still seemed to be pretty good at the end of the year, his location wasn't. Might be due to injury, the WBC, or maybe he truly is finished. I'm not betting on him being done though.

[OttoC]

If the money is not guaranteed, and he does not perform up to expectations, they simply will release him. If it is done before a specific date it won't cost them much.

[mr guido]

Yikes, this comes as a pretty big surprise to me. I'm not sure that Tito is willing to relegate Timlin to lower-lev duty. And it's hard to say for sure how much Timlin has left in the tank. He was really bad in the second half. Really bad.

From July 23 onward: 28.2 IP, WHIP of 1.81, ERA of 6.91, 3.8 K/9, WPA of -1.67

He's a clubhouse leader, he's great in the community, and he's meant a lot to the team in the past. But I thought they'd cut the cord this year. Let's hope we aren't subjected to another season of "I'm making my pitches, the other teams are simply hitting them." Hopefully he's still got something left.

[saintnick912]

I believe that the 2.8M represents almost exactly a 20% cut from Timlin's 2006 salary. This is, as far as I can tell from such parts of the rules as I can find and decipher, the minimum that the Sox could have offered Timlin had they offered him arbitration as a FA for a one year deal. Basically, it means it's the least they could pay him if they want him on the team prior to 5/1 of this year, since otherwise he could have just waited them out for an arb offer.

As for whether I like the deal, if Timlin can be anywhere near his pre-ASB numbers next year then this contract will be a steal. If he's closer to his post-ASB numbers then this contract will be a disaster. Given the studies that have been posted on the board about reliever peformance, something in between those two would actually be a relative success in that "mid-level reliever FA" range since most end up to be total busts. I'm hoping the lack of a WBC this year will cut down on the burnout factor.

[Crazy Puppy]

I believe that the 2.8M represents almost exactly a 20% cut from Timlin's 2006 salary.  This is, as far as I can tell from such parts of the rules as I can find and decipher, the minimum that the Sox could have offered Timlin had they offered him arbitration as a FA for a one year deal.  Basically, it means it's the least they could pay him if they want him on the team prior to 5/1 of this year, since otherwise he could have just waited them out for an arb offer.

That maximum salary reduction rule doesn't apply to free agent arbitration. It only applies to players going through arb with less than 6 years of ML service time.

From the section of the CBA that deals with offering arbitration to your own free agents:

If the Player accepts the offer to arbitrate, he shall be a signed player for the next season and the parties will conduct a salary arbitration proceeding under Article VI, provided, however, that the rules concerning maximum salary reduction set forth in Article VI shall be inapplicable and the parties shall be required to exchange figures on the last day established for the exchange of salary arbitration figures under Article VI.

[Robinson Checo]

but he's been declared dead before and come back.

but he's a guy who clearly loves Boston and I've always admired his approach

Rudy- nothing personal here, but I do not think these are valid reasons for bringing the guy back. His age, inability to strike guys out, his record with inhereited runners scoring, all appear more to be more tangible reasons to let the guy go.

Ruben Sierra and Tony Batista have been declared dead before and come back, but I do not want them in Boston. Millar loved Boston and had a good work ethic. I do not want him back.

Timlin was one of the 25, yeah, yeah, but I think he needs to go. If his role on the team changes and he does not pitch high leverage situations, he could be benefical (and the young guys could learn from him), but do you think Tito would change Timlin's role? I don't.

[Todd Benzinger]

Timlin may well have a fine year in 2007, but as much as I have appreciated his efforts and rooted for him, it seemed like the perfect time to let him go.

This seems like a strange and hasty move to me.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Rudy- nothing personal here, but I do not think these are valid reasons for bringing the guy back. His age, inability to strike guys out, his record with inhereited runners scoring, all appear more to be more tangible reasons to let the guy go.

I know he's up there in years, but he wasn't much younger a few years ago and was very good. He's been a good pitcher for a long time. I think his stuff was still good last year and his awful second half may have been a result of his injury. I think it's a decent risk. The inherited runners stuff is noise, and largely a function of poor pitching before him, IMO.

I guess I still think Timlin can be one of the 6 relievers on this club. If the Sox can find 6 better than him, I'm cool with letting him go. Seems unlikely though.

Timlin was one of the 25, yeah, yeah, but I think he needs to go. If his role on the team changes and he does not pitch high leverage situations, he could be benefical (and the young guys could learn from him), but do you think Tito would change Timlin's role? I don't.

Do folks realize that Hansen and Delcarmen were even worse than Timlin in the second half last year? People keep acting as if Tito was so blind in his loyalty to Timlin, and that he's incompetent to use his best relievers. I think it's really insulting to Tito. Why did Timlin pitch hi-lev spots? Because there was really no better option!!! Why did Kyle Snyder stay in the rotation? For the same reason.

Timlin was excellent in the first half, excellent for many years before that. Crappy in the second half after he was hurt. I'm not ready to give up on him quite yet given his track record. Would you give up on Hansen and MDC after their second halfs? Of course not!

Let's give Tito some credit. If 6.00 ERA Mike Timlin is one of the team's better relievers, it's a huge issue, but not one that is just blamed on Timlin and Tito. Doesn't some blame have to go to everyone else too. It's not like there were lots of guys pitching well as Timlin wasn't...he was forced into hi-lev spots because the young guys crapped themselves when given the chance.

This is just one move of many.

[amarshal2]

Nobody should be surprised. Despite what everyone else says I don't have a problem with this so long as they recognize he shouldn't be pitching the 8th inning. I think Timlin probably came back early last year and wasn't at 100% for the second half of the season. With a few months off I wouldn't be surprised to see somewhat of a bounce-back year for him. It's a 1 year deal on relatively small money when there aren't many palatable options. Good sign.

Edit: I'd certainly like to hear who other people suggest the Red Sox could have signed for 1 year at $3M in his place...or more realistically I'm interested in seeing who other clubs actually sign for 1/$3 or less.

Edited by amarshal2, 24 October 2006 - 08:29 AM.

[Paul M]

I'll answer in two ways--

1. My immediate reaction was ...WTF?!?

2. Huh? But I guess they must buy into this notion of leadership of mentoring the young arms like Hansen, Delcarmen, and later in the year *possibly* Cox and Masterson (Though I contend it was dubious how well he was in this role). Because on a performance-basis, this is unsound.

This must also reflect the paucity of relievers out there this year, as well. Don't expect more than 1-2 signings here.

But, seriously, did we really pay him almost $3 million?

[yecul]

They should resign Mirabelli, keep Kapler as a reserve OF, bring back Nixon, and make a trade for Millar. Screw it, let's make it happen. That is a team that would net you a good profit. Nostalgia always sells.

Edit --

The combination of familiarity, bowing down to the status quo, and supporting every decision the Red Sox make will lead to this being looked on relatively fondly by many. It was a safe decision in that respect.

Edited by yecul, 24 October 2006 - 08:36 AM.

[DieHard3]

I'm with Rudy on this one.

Who are you going to get that is even slightly likely to be better for 1 year at $3 million?

If Timlin fails it won't be because he can't handle the pressure of Boston, so that justifies a small premium in his salary over what performance suggests.

If Timlin pitches poorly and somebody else pitches well then Francona will adjust, but as of October 24, 2006, if I need to get an out in the late innings of close ballgame, I'd choose Timlin over Delcarman or Hansen. Signing Timlin makes it more likely those two will get 40 more games of AAA experience, and that none of the latest group of wunderkids (Martinez, Cox, Masterson) being thrown around here without so much as having seen a game of AAA action will be in the majors at all, which are both a very good thing.

I posted a list in the bullpen thread of pitchers who had put up terrible numbers in a season post age 35 and bounced back the next year to be servicable or better. I'd say odds are that Timlin puts up 60-70 decent innings in 2007, hopefully in a David Riske role rather than as a primary set up man. But, that will depend on how effective Theo is at finding quality relievers and how quickly Delcarmen and Hansen get themselves out of training pants.

[Alacoldart]

Not that I'm buying into the argument that the WBC was the reason that so many guys struggled last season, but Timlin won't be doing that this year and hopefully all these months off have allowed any lingering problems with his shoulder to clear up.

If he's used as a second string setup man, which is really what he is at this point, he should easily hit his 1,000th appearance and avoid looking too bad. He can still be effective, but he's occasionally going to throw a horrible performance out there and it's just going to have to be that way.

Not saying I love the decision, but if he can't hack it, I can see him being converted into a coach once he hits 1,000.

[smastroyin]

The thing is that the Red Sox still have to fill a 25 man roster.

Even with a declinging K rate and a propensity for flyballs, Timlin is not appreciably worse than most of the options the Sox will have available to filling his spot on the roster. The thing is that his "spot" should be the 3rd or 4th guy in the pen. $3 MM is quite a lot of money relatively, though.

The bigger problem is whether Tito continues to use him as his second highest leverage reliever. The biggest problem is whether Delcarmen or Hansen or anyone else that we have high hopes for can step in and take that role.

I think all of the risk here is tied up in his usage, not in the $$.

[The Gray Eagle]

This is a fine move, as long as we go out and get at least two more relievers who are likely to be better than Timlin. As long as the front office isn't sitting there thinking that the 8th inning setup man role is now filled, then it should be okay.

If they are thinking that, then this could be a disaster. And if they are counting on Timlin to handle high leverage spots again, then they might still have serious player evaluation problems.

If Timlin bounces back, he might be good enough to handle high leverage innings again. But IF that happens, then that should be considered a lucky break, a bonus. That shouldn't be the plan going into the season. The plan should be for Timlin to pitch the 6th and 7th, and be the third or better yet 4th man in the pen.

We still need to get a couple guy who are quite likely to be better than Timlin.

[DJnVa]

The combination of familiarity, bowing down to the status quo, and supporting every decision the Red Sox make will lead to this being looked on relatively fondly by many.  It was a safe decision in that respect.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's also a safe decision here on SoSH to bemoan every decision made by the FO.

Like others have said, what are the other options for this money? The bullpen seems to be a crapshoot for 90% of the guys on 90% of the teams. The Sox signing Timlin for the 6th/7th is fine. Signing him for the 8th/hi-lev is not.

Edited by DJnVa, 24 October 2006 - 09:06 AM.

[eddiew112]

I'll answer in two ways--

1. My immediate reaction was ...WTF?!?

2. Huh? But I guess they must buy into this notion of leadership of mentoring the young arms like Hansen, Delcarmen, and later in the year *possibly* Cox and Masterson (Though I contend it was dubious how well he was in this role). Because on a performance-basis, this is unsound.

This must also reflect the paucity of relievers out there this year, as well. Don't expect more than 1-2 signings here.

But, seriously, did we really pay him almost $3 million?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Three million is not that much...especially for one year. I think the move is weak, but I would not expect Cox or Masterson to perform for 2-3 years, and Masterson is being converted into a full-time starter. Mike is one of the few bullpen arms out there that is still worth signing. This years free agent class in the pen is not very strong.

Edited by eddiew112, 24 October 2006 - 09:05 AM.

[Paul M]

I guess it's not as bad as I think about it more, but Steve's spot on here in that if he's a 6th inning pitcher in hi-lev situations, we'll suffer. If he's the middle man and is used up 2-4 or down 2-4 in the 6/7th, it's ok.

It'll be very interesting, though, to see his lev score after the season.

[yecul]

It's also a safe decision here on SoSH to bemoan every decision made by the FO.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well that's a pile of horse shit. It's perfectly reasonable to think that giving Timlin innings is a poor risk to take.

As has been said, let's see who else they bring in house.

Edit --

Will people be in favor of, say, retaining Nixon? Let's pretend it's 1/$6-8m with an option. He was good recently and I bet DH3 can come up with a list of 30+ OFers who have rebounded.

Edited by yecul, 24 October 2006 - 09:21 AM.

[Drocca]

I wouldn't mind the signing if I had any faith that Francona would use him as others have suggested. We've seen this before with Francona and veterans, we know what he does. He will start the 8th inning. He will be the set-up man.

Take a step back and imagine it happening any other way...I can't.

[Paul M]

I'd be fine with bringing Nixon back on a 1-year deal, to be honest. A .375 OBP vs. righties is fine, if they have the right depth in other places. I'd look for someone else, first, but I wouldn't be shocked if he's back.

[SaveBooFerriss]

It is hard to criticize or praise individual moves until the whole roster is complete or near complete.

I thought Timlin looked done last season, but there is a decent chance he will bounce back. His velocity was not bad last season. A $2.8M commitment should not stop this team from making any other moves.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I wouldn't mind the signing if I had any faith that Francona would use him as others have suggested. We've seen this before with Francona and veterans, we know what he does. He will start the 8th inning. He will be the set-up man.

Can someone please tell me the relief pitchers who were so much better than Mike Timlin in the second half of last season? Instead of ripping stupid Tito, why not provide an alternative? Tito was trying to win games, he felt Timlin was one of his better guys and sadly, he was probably right.

The problem wasn't Tito's decision making; it was the absolutely horrific pitching which everyone (not just timlin or tito) need to take responsibility for.

Here are the relievers who had 20+ innings pitched in the second half and their ERA's.

Papelbon 1.61
Corey 4.57
Timlin 6.06
Delcarmen 6.23
Hansen 7.52

Once Paps got hurt....what kind of options did Tito have? If Timlin is toast based on his second half, what does that say for MDC and Hansen?

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 24 October 2006 - 09:40 AM.

[Fratboy]

I was absolutely stunned when I heard this this morning. If there was one guy, just one guy, who I was absolutely certain would not be returning to the Sox next year, it was Timlin. He was toast at the end of last season. How many 41 year-olds rebound to have effective seasons as relievers? This 2.8M certainly seems to be better spent elsewhere, certainly towards a top-flight innings muncher.

[Maalox]

It is hard to criticize or praise individual moves until the whole roster is complete or near complete.

I thought Timlin looked done last season, but there is a decent chance he will bounce back.  His velocity was not bad last season.  A $2.8M commitment should not stop this team from making any other moves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is correct.

[Fratboy]

This is correct.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Taking this one step further, is this indicative of the team's willingness to significantly raise payroll next year? Do we know what the luxury tax impact would be, if any?

[yecul]

Taking this one step further, is this indicative of the team's willingness to significantly raise payroll next year? Do we know what the luxury tax impact would be, if any?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Aren't short/cheap deals for familiar faces usually indications of the opposite? I think Timlin is around to allow for Hansen to get more seasoning.

Foulke
Timlin
Delcarmen
Tavarez
Lopez
xxxxx

I think that's basically what we're looking at. This assumes Foulke takes his player option, which I think it s a reasonable bet.

Even if we beleive they will target other relievers where are the roster spots? If they can pick up a strong lefty then Lopez is expendable, but given the past few seasons Francona clearly wants to have a lefty and/or a situational lefty. Timlin obviously has a contract now. Delcarmen seems like a bet to be in there though they could theoretically fill his spot. Tavarez is a good long man and I'm going to assume he's not in the rotation.

This is very early on and lots of things can change. Foulke might retire or not pick up his option. He migh tbe traded. Tavarez could be used in the rotation. Delcarmen AND Hansen might be in AAA. Lopez or the situation lefty could be passed on. Etc.

However, right now, at this moment, that is basically what the pen looks like. In that pen Timlin is the top setup man or even the closer. If nothing else, we can label this a concern and a work in progress.

[Talon]

Heres my biggest issue with the situation though

I do believe his 10-5 rights kick in on or near opening day. He's been with the Sox since 2003 and 2007 will be his 5th season with the Sox.

So trading him will be an issue if he sucks, of course if the money is non garaunteed you can just release him.

[mr guido]

Papelbon 1.61
Corey 4.57
Timlin 6.06
Delcarmen 6.23
Hansen 7.52

Once Paps got hurt....what kind of options did Tito have? If Timlin is toast based on his second half, what does that say for MDC and Hansen?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Next year Craig Hansen will be 23. Delcarmen will be 25. Timlin will be 41. Don't pretend their stats are comparable (even assuming a half season of relief pitcher ERA is a reasonable metric of comparison in the first place) in making predictions going forward.

[DJnVa]

I do believe his 10-5 rights kick in on or near opening day. He's been with the Sox since 2003 and 2007 will be his 5th season with the Sox.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He came to the Sox in 2003. He won't get 10-5 until after playing 5 years with the Sox.

2003
2004
2005
2006

4 years. His 10-5 rights wouldn't be until 2008. 2007 will be his 5th year, but merely the beginning of it.

Edited by DJnVa, 24 October 2006 - 10:43 AM.

[mangotree101]

Can someone please tell me the relief pitchers who were so much better than Mike Timlin in the second half of last season? Instead of ripping stupid Tito, why not provide an alternative? Tito was trying to win games, he felt Timlin was one of his better guys and sadly, he was probably right.

The problem wasn't Tito's decision making; it was the absolutely horrific pitching which everyone (not just timlin or tito) need to take responsibility for.

Here are the relievers who had 20+ innings pitched in the second half and their ERA's.

Papelbon 1.61
Corey 4.57
Timlin 6.06
Delcarmen 6.23
Hansen 7.52

Once Paps got hurt....what kind of options did Tito have? If Timlin is toast based on his second half, what does that say for MDC and Hansen?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's been pointed out here many a time that ERA is of very limited use when assessing relief pitching. FIP paints a rather different picture:

Red Sox Relievers Post ASB IP=20+

Player	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	ERA
J Papelbon	1.95	11.29	2.02	5.6	1.61
M Delcarmen	3.23	7.12	2.97	2.4	6.23
B Corey	3.66	6.22	2.9	2.14	4.57
C Hansen	5.52	6.15	4.1	1.5	7.52
M Timlin	5.68	3.3	1.93	1.71	6.06

As you can see, by any measure but ERA (and BB/9), Timlin was the Red Sox's worst reliever after the ASB in the group of players that pitched at least 20 innings. BB/9 also happens to be the only aspect of Timlin's game last _season_ that didn't drop below both his 2005 and his career numbers. He's allowing more HRs, hits, and runs than before, he can't strike anyone out any more, but great, he's not walking too many batters. Yay.

What the numbers say about Hansen and Delcarmen is that they are young and inexperienced, and in Hansen's case, should probably spend a few more months in AAA. What they say in Timlin's case is that he's on his way out. 15 years do all the difference make...

Having said all that, I don't think it's a catastrophe that they resigned him, although I don't like the money. But I do share the worry of others here that Tito won't use him where he ought to be used -- in low-leverage situations and for mop-up duty.

Edit: FWIW, Timlin's K/9 puts him in the bottom 100 (around #430) amongst the 496 players who pitched in relief last year.

Edited by mangotree101, 24 October 2006 - 10:52 AM.

[diehard24]

Heres my biggest issue with the situation though

I do believe his 10-5 rights kick in on or near opening day. He's been with the Sox since 2003 and 2007 will be his 5th season with the Sox.

So trading him will be an issue if he sucks, of course if the money is non garaunteed you can just release him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

At $3M, I think they'd release him anyway if he proves to be toast.

I'm going to give Francona enough credit to use Timlin in a way that will help the team. If Theo gives him a better option to pitch the 8th, I'm pretty sure he'll use that option. If Theo doesn't provide him with a better option, and in-house options like Foulke, Hansen, or Delcarmen can't supplant him due to inferior performance, you'll need to blame Theo, not Tito.

My personal feeling is that they'll do what they can to maximize Timlin's effectiveness, including a reduction in innings, and perhaps a reduction in role. I don't believe the Sox signed Timlin with the intention of relying on him as set-up man all year, regardless of the money. He won't be in that role full-time unless he finds the fountian of youth this offseason, and given the bullpen implosion this year, I'm pretty sure Theo will bring in other options that can compete for the set-up man role (I'm pulling for Speier).

[cannonball 1729]

I was absolutely stunned when I heard this this morning. If there was one guy, just one guy, who I was absolutely certain would not be returning to the Sox next year, it was Timlin. He was toast at the end of last season. How many 41 year-olds rebound to have effective seasons as relievers? This 2.8M certainly seems to be better spent elsewhere, certainly towards a top-flight innings muncher.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's worth noting that his pre-DL and post-DL splits from 2006 are pretty significant:

pre-DL: 1.40 ERA, 5.6 K/9, .47 HR/9
post-DL: 5.64 ERA, 3.63 K/9, 1.21 HR/9

It's not inconceivable that his falling apart at the end of last year was caused by whatever created the "fatigued arm" that put him on the DL in May. While it's always a risk to bring on a 41 year old pitcher recovering from injury, I'm not ready to write off Timlin just yet - pitchers have come back from injuries before. Besides, $2.8 million isn't exactly breaking the bank as far as the Sox are concerned.

Particularly since the Sox were so quick to re-up with Timlin, I think they may feel that the injury to Timlin would be cured by an offseason of rest.

Edited by cannonball 1729, 24 October 2006 - 10:58 AM.

[Paradigm]

This can't be seen as a bad move. There's not one guarantee in next year's bullpen. Neither Hansen nor Delcarmen can be counted on for durable innings, let alone high leverage ones. Keith Foulke isn't committed to the team next year in any fashion (player or club) and after that, there's a series of retreads and scrubs that can pitch decent innings, but who knows if they will.

As it stands, this team doesn't have a capable reliever on its roster next year, and I'm not talking about the Zumaya's and Shields' of the world. Even pitchers like Salomon Torres and Justin Speier (sign him, please) are solid bullpen additions.

I'm hoping that five months of rest will do Timlin well, and I'm pretty optimistic that rest will soothe his aching bones and allow him to pitch effectively next year. Is next year's team realling going to give high leverage innings to pitchers like Justin Masterson? Is that what we, as critical Red Sox fans would think is best? I doubt it.

I say give this guy the chance to prove he's back. I'm also not a stickler with the budget because this team finds money when it wants to find money (like offering Roger $20 million last year) so the sum doesn't bother me.

[Paradigm]

Will people be in favor of, say, retaining Nixon?  Let's pretend it's 1/$6-8m with an option.  He was good recently and I bet DH3 can come up with a list of 30+ OFers who have rebounded.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're foolish to make this comparision. A bullpen arm at $3 million, especially one who has had three and a half previously very, very successful seasons before crashing in the second half of last year, versus a chronically injured outfielder playing at a position that is much different than a reliever. There are very few relievers in Major League Baseball that you can sign and say, "this guy will be dominant all season long" and expect it to be so. Even if the team was to trade for a National League arm, is it guaranteed that he'd translate to the AL?

But if you sign a starting right fielder, you sign him to play almost every inning at that position exceptionally. Relievers are fickle, we all know that.

Plus, who knows what the front office knows about Timlin's medical condition that we DON'T know. I'm just hoping that the rest does him well.

[ngruz25]

If there is one thing we have learned, it is that you can never have too many pitchers in the bullpen. I don't care how many guys we have or will go after, we're going to need more. While people are quick to point out that we should be spending this money on better pitchers who will eat up quality innings, those guys aren't readily available. We can use every arm we have. When you have a guy who is proven reliable, especially in Boston, you hang on to him. The fact that he "looked toast" isn't enough to make me convinced we need to sever our ties with the guy.

[mangotree101]

This can't be seen as a bad move.  There's not one guarantee in next year's bullpen.  Neither Hansen nor Delcarmen can be counted on for durable innings, let alone high leverage ones.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I really don't understand why so many people insist on lumping Hansen and MDC together. They have nothing in common. Delcarmen was the second-best reliever with more than 15 IP on the team after Papelbon by most measures _but_ ERA and BB/9; his FIP ERA was _better_ than Scott Shields' -- he was in the top 30 among MLB relievers by FIP (and also in the bottom 30 by DER, which explains a lot).

Hansen's a work in progress, but Delcarmen ought to be an extremely valuable member of the bullpen next year.

Edited by mangotree101, 24 October 2006 - 11:55 AM.

[rmurph3]

The problem I see here is that you've now clogged another bullpen slot with a guy who can rarely go on back-to-back days or for more than a single inning. Foulke's probably in the same boat. In my eyes, one reason the pen was so burned out by August was because there was nobody in that pen who had a rubber arm, or who could eat a couple of innings at a clip (high lev or not) without feeling it for the next 2-3 days. Any Opening Day pen with both Foulke and Timlin in it is almost assuredly going to put an inordinate strain on the other 5 guys in the pen, and/or lead to too many trips on the Pawtucket shuttle for whoever is filling the Jermaine Van Buren role in 2007.

This pen doesn't just need to get better, it needed to get more durable.

[Maalox]

Taking this one step further, is this indicative of the team's willingness to significantly raise payroll next year? Do we know what the luxury tax impact would be, if any?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think it is indicative of anything other than a belief that Timlin can still contribute.

[AZBlue]

If Timlin's second half implosion was the result of the shoulder problems that sent him to the DL and if the Red Sox believe that a winter of rest will resolve those issues, this is a good signing. Considering how hard it is to predict success of relief pitchers from season to season, this may be a lower risk signing than bringing in a free agent who is on the usual performance roller coaster.

[Crazy Puppy]

Do we know what the luxury tax impact would be, if any?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We won't know for sure until the details of the new CBA are announced, but it appears that the structure of the luxury tax isn't going to change, only some slight adjustments to the threshold and the tax rate. If that's true, then Boston might not have any luxury tax penalty in 2007 -- regardless of how much they spend -- by virtue of having stayed under the threshold in 2006. We'll have to see how the new CBA deals with that issue.

[amarshal2]

I really don't understand why so many people insist on lumping Hansen and MDC together. They have nothing in common. Delcarmen was the second-best reliever with more than 15 IP on the team after Papelbon by most measures _but_ ERA and BB/9; his FIP ERA was _better_ than Scott Shields' -- he was in the top 30 among MLB relievers by FIP (and also in the bottom 30 by DER, which explains a lot).

Hansen's a work in progress, but Delcarmen ought to be an extremely valuable member of the bullpen next year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

With respect to relief pitchers FIP means little. The sample size is very small and many relievers have shown positive and negative babip skills. If Delcarmen continues to leave fastballs over the middle of the plate he will continue to give up line drives at a very high rate (25.7%) and fail to realize his peripherals. I'm not making any comment about his ability to adjust or improve.

Edited by amarshal2, 24 October 2006 - 12:11 PM.

[erfus]

If Timlin's second half implosion was the result of the shoulder problems that sent him to the DL and if the Red Sox believe that a winter of rest will resolve those issues, this is a good signing.  Considering how hard it is to predict success of relief pitchers from season to season, this may be a lower risk signing than bringing in a free agent who is on the usual performance roller coaster.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Also consider that the team may have reasons to believe Timlin's stint in the WBC wasn't the right thing for a 40-yr old pitcher to do when it comes to staying strong throughout a 162-game season. Given the shallow relief pitcher market, this signing seems to me to be one of only a few unrestricted free agent opportunities to install a setup arm in the bullpen.