Jump to content


Yo! You're not logged in. Why am I seeing this ad?

Photo

Free Agent Pitchers and Durability


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
31 replies to this topic

#1 philly sox fan


  • SoSH Member


  • 9,748 posts

Posted 05 October 2006 - 09:59 PM

I thought I'd try to test drive the new SoSH tables with some things I've been working on concerning high priced free agent pitchers.

As you may recall, two winters ago the Sox needed to make signficant decisions about expensive starting pitchers in the free agent market. They decided to not match the Mets offer for Pedro Martinez and didn't show much interest in Derek Lowe at all. They subsequently signed Matt Clement and David Wells, but they reportedly made signficant offers to Brad Radke and Carl Pavano as well. That was also the winter when seemingly every halfway decent pitcher recieved a similar 3 yr/21M contract so it's always been interesting to me to follow those pitchers first in terms of their economic value (that's obvious when we're talking about comparing free agent contracts) and then more recently in terms of durability.

But durability has always been an important consideration to me when thinking about Lowe (ok, and Pedro too). When noted super duper smart guy Paul DePodesta signed Lowe to a then shocking contract a lot of fans of super duper smart GMs were a bit perplexed. Rob Neyer somewhat infamously went to BTF begging for people to help explain what DePodesta may have been thinking. Most of that initial reaction focused on how well Lowe's extreme ground ball style fit Dodger Stadium park effects. There is a compelling case to be made there, but the thing that really struck me about Lowe in comparison to his fellow FA pitchers is how much better his health prognosis and durability seemed to be. Lowe has been worked hard as a releiver, experienced a huge jump in IP and he never seemed to skip a bit. It always seemed to me like he could go on throwing sinkers forever. In fact, even though Lowe was one of the few pitchers to get a four year contract I assumed he was the best bet to average 30 starts per year over the life of his contract. And that has tremendous value especially for a high revenue team that expects to complete for the playoffs every year like the Dodgers (and the Sox too). Lowe's rate stat based projections may have been pretty blah, but if you beleived his health prognosis was much better than his peers, then how much should that offset the quality indicators? That's really a difficult thing to juggle.

Anyway, let's spend some time looking at the expensive free agent pitchers from the last two free agent classes. I included every pitcher that got at a three year contract (and generally the AAV was always at least 7M) and a handful of pitchers who received two year contracts at about that same AAV. These are the standard B level veteran free agent pitchers.

Here are pitchers from the winter of 2004/05 (perhaps in a spiffy new table!)

2004/2005
[td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]
Player Years Dollars AAV
Pedro Martinez 4 53 13.25
Carl Pavano 4 39.95 9.9875
Derek Lowe 4 36 9
Brad Radke 2 18 9
Matt Clement 3 25.5 8.5
Eric Milton 3 25.5 8.5
Russ Ortiz 4 33 8.25
Odalis Perez 3 24 8
Kris Benson 3 22.5 7.5
Jon Lieber 3 21 7
Jaret Wright 3 21 7
David Wells 2 13.6 6.8
Total 333.05
Average 8.6


Do you think this is going to turn out well for the teams that guaranteed these pitchers over 330M? Me neither.

The next table will include Games Started, Innings Pitched, VORP and "$/10 VORP" for every pitcher for 2005, 2006 and the two year total. Pitchers are ranked by Total VORP. You'll recognize the two guys on top.

Summary
[td=10%] Player [/td] [td=10%] 05 GS [/td] [td=10%] 05 IP [/td] [td=10%] O5 VORP [/td] [td=10%] $/10 VORP [/td] [td=10%] 06 GS [/td] [td=10%] 06 IP [/td] [td=10%] 06 VORP [/td] [td=10%] $/10 VORP [/td] [td=10%] Tot GS [/td] [td=10%] Tot IP [/td] [td=10%] Tot VORP [/td] [td=10%] $/10 VORP [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Martinez [/td] [td=10%] 31 [/td] [td=10%] 217 [/td] [td=10%] 66.1 [/td] [td=10%] 2 [/td] [td=10%] 23 [/td] [td=10%] 132.7 [/td] [td=10%] 15.9 [/td] [td=10%] 8.3 [/td] [td=10%] 54 [/td] [td=10%] 349.7 [/td] [td=10%] 82 [/td] [td=10%] 3.2 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Lowe [/td] [td=10%] 35 [/td] [td=10%] 222 [/td] [td=10%] 25.2 [/td] [td=10%] 3.6 [/td] [td=10%] 35 [/td] [td=10%] 218 [/td] [td=10%] 47.7 [/td] [td=10%] 1.9 [/td] [td=10%] 70 [/td] [td=10%] 440 [/td] [td=10%] 72.9 [/td] [td=10%] 2.5 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Radke [/td] [td=10%] 31 [/td] [td=10%] 200.7 [/td] [td=10%] 31.9 [/td] [td=10%] 2.8 [/td] [td=10%] 28 [/td] [td=10%] 162.3 [/td] [td=10%] 23.4 [/td] [td=10%] 3.9 [/td] [td=10%] 59 [/td] [td=10%] 363 [/td] [td=10%] 55.3 [/td] [td=10%] 3.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Lieber [/td] [td=10%] 35 [/td] [td=10%] 218.3 [/td] [td=10%] 28.9 [/td] [td=10%] 2.4 [/td] [td=10%] 27 [/td] [td=10%] 168 [/td] [td=10%] 14 [/td] [td=10%] 5 [/td] [td=10%] 62 [/td] [td=10%] 386.3 [/td] [td=10%] 42.9 [/td] [td=10%] 3.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Benson [/td] [td=10%] 28 [/td] [td=10%] 174.3 [/td] [td=10%] 22.5 [/td] [td=10%] 3.3 [/td] [td=10%] 30 [/td] [td=10%] 183 [/td] [td=10%] 17.5 [/td] [td=10%] 4.3 [/td] [td=10%] 58 [/td] [td=10%] 357.3 [/td] [td=10%] 40 [/td] [td=10%] 3.8 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Wells [/td] [td=10%] 30 [/td] [td=10%] 184 [/td] [td=10%] 24.1 [/td] [td=10%] 2.8 [/td] [td=10%] 13 [/td] [td=10%] 75.3 [/td] [td=10%] 9.9 [/td] [td=10%] 6.9 [/td] [td=10%] 43 [/td] [td=10%] 259.3 [/td] [td=10%] 34 [/td] [td=10%] 4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Clement [/td] [td=10%] 32 [/td] [td=10%] 191 [/td] [td=10%] 21.6 [/td] [td=10%] 3.9 [/td] [td=10%] 12 [/td] [td=10%] 65.3 [/td] [td=10%] -5 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 44 [/td] [td=10%] 256.3 [/td] [td=10%] 16.6 [/td] [td=10%] 10.2 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Wright [/td] [td=10%] 13 [/td] [td=10%] 63.7 [/td] [td=10%] -9.8 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 27 [/td] [td=10%] 140.3 [/td] [td=10%] 18.7 [/td] [td=10%] 3.7 [/td] [td=10%] 40 [/td] [td=10%] 204 [/td] [td=10%] 8.9 [/td] [td=10%] 15.7 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] O Perez [/td] [td=10%] 19 [/td] [td=10%] 108.7 [/td] [td=10%] 8.6 [/td] [td=10%] 9.3 [/td] [td=10%] 20 [/td] [td=10%] 126.3 [/td] [td=10%] -8.7 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 39 [/td] [td=10%] 235 [/td] [td=10%] -0.1 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Pavano [/td] [td=10%] 17 [/td] [td=10%] 100 [/td] [td=10%] -1.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 0 [/td] [td=10%] 0 [/td] [td=10%] 0 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 17 [/td] [td=10%] 100 [/td] [td=10%] -1.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Milton [/td] [td=10%] 34 [/td] [td=10%] 186.3 [/td] [td=10%] -25 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 26 [/td] [td=10%] 152.7 [/td] [td=10%] 8.3 [/td] [td=10%] 10.2 [/td] [td=10%] 60 [/td] [td=10%] 339 [/td] [td=10%] -16.7 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Ortiz [/td] [td=10%] 22 [/td] [td=10%] 115 [/td] [td=10%] -20.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 11 [/td] [td=10%] 63 [/td] [td=10%] -17 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 33 [/td] [td=10%] 178 [/td] [td=10%] -37.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Total [/td] [td=10%] 327 [/td] [td=10%] 1981 [/td] [td=10%] 172.4 [/td] [td=10%] 5.962 [/td] [td=10%] 252 [/td] [td=10%] 1486.9 [/td] [td=10%] 124.7 [/td] [td=10%] 8.243 [/td] [td=10%] 579 [/td] [td=10%] 3468 [/td] [td=10%] 297.1 [/td] [td=10%] 6.919 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]


What I hope you're seeing in a pretty table is that in 2005 those 12 pitchers combined for 327 starts, 1981 IP, 172.4 VORP at an AAV cost of 102.8M. That produces a cost per 10 VORP of 5.962M which isn't very good at all.

In 2006 thos same pitchers combined for 252 starts (75 fewer), 1487 IP (~500 fewer) and 124.7 VORP (~50 less) for the same AAV cost of 102.8M. That produces a cost per 10 VORP of 8.243M which is downright terrible.

The 50 VORP difference is pretty much exactly Pedro's decline. Some of the individual B starters fluctuated from year to year, but en mass they were roughly the same. Pedro as the only ace nearly redeemed the FA expenditure in 2005 by having a very good year. When he collapsed in 2006 he brought the whole thing down into a 103M sinkhole. More or less.

All but Radke and Wells will contrinue into 2007 on year 3 of thier contracts. The injuries to Pedro and Clement just about guarantee that 2007 will be a pretty bad year again.

Just a few things from the Total columns...

I speculated that Lowe might be the best bet to average 30 starts per year for the life of his contract. He's only halfway through, but he's at 35 per year. Lieber and Milton are right at the 30 start average. Radke is killing himself pitching through a torn labrum to just about get there. Benson is almost there as well. The rest are already guaranteed to not make it.

In terms of IP Lowe is the only one to clear 400 IP. He blew by that 200 IP per year standard with 440 IP. Radke, Benson and Lieber are again the next tier of durability with 357-386 IP.

The only pitchers to average a mere 20 VORP per year are those three second tier durability guys, Lowe and Pedro. Pedro was actually so good in 2005 that if he doesn't pitch again he'll average just over 20 VORP per year.

Wells came pretty close. The rest are all disasters.

The good, or at least adequate and durable, pitchers cost 2.5-4M per 10 VORP. Those are just the successes, but that's pretty good. The rest are quite hideous.

I don't want SoSH to eat my (hopefully) nifty tables so I'll continue in the next post.

#2 philly sox fan


  • SoSH Member


  • 9,748 posts

Posted 05 October 2006 - 10:18 PM

Not too shabby.

Next we'll look at the first year performances from pitchers signed last winter.

2005/2006
[td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]
Player Years Dollars AAV 06 GS 06 IP 06 VORP $/10 VORP
AJ Burnett 5 55 11 21 135.7 25.4 4.3
Kevin Millwood 4 48 12 34 215 34 3.5
Jarrod Washburn 4 37.5 9.4 31 187 21.4 4.4
Matt Morris 3 27 9 33 207.7 15.7 5.7
Esteban Loaiza 3 21.375 7.1 26 154.7 12.7 5.6
Kenny Rogers 2 16 8 34 204 39.8 2
Paul Byrd 2 14.25 7.1 31 179 -1
Total 219.125 210 1283.1 148 4.297
Average 9


There were fewer big cntracts given out last year and although I didn't much care for that group of pitchers they were - at least in year one - surprisingly durable as a group and at least mostly adequate. That's not real ringing praise, but it does beat some of the junk from 2005.

To sum up the last two offseasons, MLB as an industry signed 19 pitchers who have so far pitched 31 seasons (that 2 years for the 12 pitchers from 2005 and one for the 7 from last year). In those 31 seasons these 19 pitchers were paid 269.2M. Not bad, beat Powerball and everything.

In those 31 seasons the pitchers combined for 789 starts, 4,751 IP and 445.1 VORP. The cost per 10 VORP to date is a pretty poor 6.048M.

The season average is 25 starts, 153 IP and 14.4 VORP for 8.7M. Somewhere between 7 and 10 fewer starts than expected? 25% fewer innings than the 200 IP benchmark? A win and a half over replacement? It's not a really pretty picture.

Now it is true that some of these contracts were terrible the minute they were signed. They do drag the numbers down quite a bit, but while some were obvious at the time many were not.

What about the pitchers the Sox seemed to target two years ago?

Well, the Sox offered 26 and 40M to Pedro. He's out with a significant rotator cuff injury.

The Sox reportedly made a significant offer to Radke. He's pitched through a torn labrum. If he had signed a 3 year deal he probably would have had surgery in May.

The Sox reportedly made a significant offer to Pavano and he's pitched a total of 100 innings with a variety of injury issues.

The Sox did sign Clement to a lucrative contract. He's out with rotator cuff and labrum injuries.

Old man Wells did not hurt his shoulder. He hurt his knee instead.

And Derek Lowe? 70 starts, 440 IP and pretty good results.

That's not to say the Sox should have signed Lowe or that the unaddressed AL/NL issue isn't a huge levelling factor. But it is to say that to the extent that Lowe's durability was something that could be predicted, that kind of pitcher can be pretty valuable. We'll take a closer look at durability issues in a bit.

One last thing I wanted to look at from the pitchers of the last couple of FA classes. This is a table of all of the single seasons of at least 20 VORP production. Remember there are 31 total seasons in the sample.

Single Season VORP Leaders
[td=10%] Pitcher [/td] [td=10%] Year [/td] [td=10%] VORP [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Pedro [/td] [td=10%] 2005 [/td] [td=10%] 66.1 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Lowe [/td] [td=10%] 2006 [/td] [td=10%] 47.7 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Rogers [/td] [td=10%] 2006 [/td] [td=10%] 39.8 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Millwood [/td] [td=10%] 2006 [/td] [td=10%] 34 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Radke [/td] [td=10%] 2005 [/td] [td=10%] 31.9 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Lieber [/td] [td=10%] 2005 [/td] [td=10%] 28.9 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Burnett [/td] [td=10%] 2006 [/td] [td=10%] 25.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Lowe [/td] [td=10%] 2005 [/td] [td=10%] 25.2 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Wells [/td] [td=10%] 2005 [/td] [td=10%] 24.1 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Radke [/td] [td=10%] 2006 [/td] [td=10%] 23.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Benson [/td] [td=10%] 2005 [/td] [td=10%] 22.5 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Clement [/td] [td=10%] 2005 [/td] [td=10%] 21.6 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Washburn [/td] [td=10%] 2006 [/td] [td=10%] 21.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]


Once again the top two names might be familiar.

Out of 31 seasons with an average of cost of 8.7M only 13 were greater than 20 VORP. Only 5 greater than 30 VORP. Only 2 greater than 40 VORP.

For the most part even the successful pitcher seasons didn't have much of an impact.

#3 philly sox fan


  • SoSH Member


  • 9,748 posts

Posted 05 October 2006 - 11:40 PM

In case you were wondering this is actually supposed to be at least somewhat informative to the upcoming free agent class of pitchers. And to prove it the next couple of tables will include one Barry Zito.

Last winter I was screwing around with a Pedro post-2001 injury thread that I never finished. Part of it was to look at Game Start and IP data for Pedro's post-injury years 2002-2005. I'm going to cannabilize those two tables here.

These are (basically) the top 33 starters by VORP over 2002-2005. It was originally the top 3 but Lowe, Wakefield and Clement were pretty close so I threw them on. The other catch is that a pitcher had to have at least one 40 VORP season in the stretch. This was supposed to be a comparison of the durability of Pedro's peers so I didn't want a bunch of average-ish inning eating Jeff Suppans in there. You had to at least have a strong #2 starter season to your credit.

I could have updated it through 2006, but, well, you know and you'll get the point anyway.

Here are those top starters sorted by Games Started from 2002-2005.

To Starters Ranked by Games Started
[td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 28 [/td] [td=10%] Halladay [/td] [td=10%] 213.7 [/td] [td=10%] 34 [/td] [td=10%] 36 [/td] [td=10%] 21 [/td] [td=10%] 19 [/td] [td=10%] 110 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 29 [/td] [td=10%] Peavy [/td] [td=10%] 148.8 [/td] [td=10%] 17 [/td] [td=10%] 32 [/td] [td=10%] 27 [/td] [td=10%] 30 [/td] [td=10%] 106 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 30 [/td] [td=10%] Pettitte [/td] [td=10%] 152 [/td] [td=10%] 22 [/td] [td=10%] 33 [/td] [td=10%] 15 [/td] [td=10%] 33 [/td] [td=10%] 103 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 31 [/td] [td=10%] Schilling [/td] [td=10%] 186.1 [/td] [td=10%] 35 [/td] [td=10%] 24 [/td] [td=10%] 32 [/td] [td=10%] 11 [/td] [td=10%] 102 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 32 [/td] [td=10%] Santana [/td] [td=10%] 243.9 [/td] [td=10%] 14 [/td] [td=10%] 18 [/td] [td=10%] 34 [/td] [td=10%] 33 [/td] [td=10%] 99 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 33 [/td] [td=10%] Prior [/td] [td=10%] 147.9 [/td] [td=10%] 19 [/td] [td=10%] 30 [/td] [td=10%] 21 [/td] [td=10%] 27 [/td] [td=10%] 97 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]
VORP 2002 2003 2004 2005 GS
1 Zito 205.3 35 35 34 35 139
2 Maddux 142.3 34 36 33 35 138
3 Buehrle 193.6 34 35 35 33 137
4 L Hernandez 170.4 33 33 35 35 136
5 Colon 192 33 34 34 33 134
6 Glavine 160 36 32 33 33 134
7 Lowe 119.2 32 33 33 35 133
8 Moyer 170 34 33 33 32 132
9 F Garcia 146.5 34 33 31 33 131
10 Clemens 211.6 29 33 33 32 127
11 Clement 127.6 32 32 30 32 126
12 Oswalt 206.3 34 21 35 35 125
13 Hudson 238.8 34 34 27 29 124
14 Sabathia 154.7 33 30 30 31 124
15 Millwood 148.8 34 35 25 30 124
16 Sheets 143.5 34 34 34 22 124
17 Martinez 262.1 30 29 33 31 123
18 Johnson 205.5 35 18 35 34 122
19 D Wells 144.5 31 30 31 30 122
20 Mulder 180.9 30 26 33 32 121
21 Mussina 145.7 33 31 27 30 121
22 Schmidt 188 29 29 32 29 119
23 Radke 139.8 21 33 34 31 119
24 Washburn 167.2 32 32 25 29 118
25 C Zambrano 172.9 16 32 31 33 112
26 O Perez 137.6 32 30 31 19 112
27 Wakefield 124.6 15 33 30 33 111


Holy crap, did you know Zito was durable?!?!?

Actually, I was a bit surprised at how many starters put up 33-35 start seasons. During the Pedro era I become so accustomed to the Sox using a strict 5 day roation and maxing out at 32 starts (with Pedro often at 29/30 with a couple of owies) that it was genuinely surprising that these other teams are slipping their 5th starter and getting a couple extra starts per year. And some pitchers, like Zito, have been durable enough to make those 35 starts year after year.

You may have noticed that Pedro slotted in right in the middle of the pack at #17. Even though he pitched four basically full seasons (for him) he was almost a full half season off of Zito pace. That's a lot.

You may have also noticed that Pedro was so ridiculously good that he also lead baseball in VORP by a large margin despite the middle of the pack GS and IP totals. That post-peak Pedro was arguably still the best pitcher in baseball was the original point of that post I never finished. Maybe I'll reserrect it at some point this winter with a slightly different take home message. :)

Here is the same group of starters sorted by IP.

Top Starters Ranked by Innings Pitched
[td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] VORP [/td] [td=10%] 2002 [/td] [td=10%] 2003 [/td] [td=10%] 2004 [/td] [td=10%] 2005 [/td] [td=10%] IP [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 1 [/td] [td=10%] Buehrle [/td] [td=10%] 193.6 [/td] [td=10%] 239 [/td] [td=10%] 230.3 [/td] [td=10%] 245.3 [/td] [td=10%] 236.7 [/td] [td=10%] 951.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 2 [/td] [td=10%] L Hernandez [/td] [td=10%] 170.4 [/td] [td=10%] 216 [/td] [td=10%] 233.3 [/td] [td=10%] 255 [/td] [td=10%] 246.3 [/td] [td=10%] 950.6 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] Colon [/td] [td=10%] 192 [/td] [td=10%] 233.3 [/td] [td=10%] 242 [/td] [td=10%] 208.3 [/td] [td=10%] 222.7 [/td] [td=10%] 906.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 4 [/td] [td=10%] Zito [/td] [td=10%] 205.3 [/td] [td=10%] 229.3 [/td] [td=10%] 231.7 [/td] [td=10%] 213 [/td] [td=10%] 228.3 [/td] [td=10%] 902.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 5 [/td] [td=10%] F Garcia [/td] [td=10%] 146.5 [/td] [td=10%] 223.7 [/td] [td=10%] 201.3 [/td] [td=10%] 210 [/td] [td=10%] 228 [/td] [td=10%] 863 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 6 [/td] [td=10%] Hudson [/td] [td=10%] 238.8 [/td] [td=10%] 238.3 [/td] [td=10%] 240 [/td] [td=10%] 188.7 [/td] [td=10%] 192 [/td] [td=10%] 859 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 7 [/td] [td=10%] Maddux [/td] [td=10%] 142.3 [/td] [td=10%] 199.3 [/td] [td=10%] 218.3 [/td] [td=10%] 212.7 [/td] [td=10%] 225 [/td] [td=10%] 855.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 8 [/td] [td=10%] Moyer [/td] [td=10%] 170 [/td] [td=10%] 230.7 [/td] [td=10%] 215 [/td] [td=10%] 202 [/td] [td=10%] 200 [/td] [td=10%] 847.7 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 9 [/td] [td=10%] Johnson [/td] [td=10%] 205.5 [/td] [td=10%] 260 [/td] [td=10%] 114 [/td] [td=10%] 245.7 [/td] [td=10%] 225.7 [/td] [td=10%] 845.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 10 [/td] [td=10%] Oswalt [/td] [td=10%] 206.3 [/td] [td=10%] 233 [/td] [td=10%] 127.3 [/td] [td=10%] 237 [/td] [td=10%] 241.7 [/td] [td=10%] 839 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 11 [/td] [td=10%] Glavine [/td] [td=10%] 160 [/td] [td=10%] 224.7 [/td] [td=10%] 183.3 [/td] [td=10%] 212.3 [/td] [td=10%] 211.3 [/td] [td=10%] 831.6 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 12 [/td] [td=10%] Sheets [/td] [td=10%] 143.5 [/td] [td=10%] 216.7 [/td] [td=10%] 220.7 [/td] [td=10%] 237 [/td] [td=10%] 156.7 [/td] [td=10%] 831.1 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 13 [/td] [td=10%] Lowe [/td] [td=10%] 119.2 [/td] [td=10%] 219.7 [/td] [td=10%] 203.3 [/td] [td=10%] 182.7 [/td] [td=10%] 222 [/td] [td=10%] 827.7 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 14 [/td] [td=10%] Mulder [/td] [td=10%] 180.9 [/td] [td=10%] 207.3 [/td] [td=10%] 186.7 [/td] [td=10%] 225.7 [/td] [td=10%] 205 [/td] [td=10%] 824.7 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 15 [/td] [td=10%] Martinez [/td] [td=10%] 262.1 [/td] [td=10%] 199.3 [/td] [td=10%] 186.7 [/td] [td=10%] 217 [/td] [td=10%] 217 [/td] [td=10%] 820 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 16 [/td] [td=10%] Clemens [/td] [td=10%] 211.6 [/td] [td=10%] 180 [/td] [td=10%] 211.7 [/td] [td=10%] 214.3 [/td] [td=10%] 211.3 [/td] [td=10%] 817.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 17 [/td] [td=10%] D Wells [/td] [td=10%] 144.5 [/td] [td=10%] 206.3 [/td] [td=10%] 213 [/td] [td=10%] 195.7 [/td] [td=10%] 184 [/td] [td=10%] 799 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 18 [/td] [td=10%] Sabathia [/td] [td=10%] 154.7 [/td] [td=10%] 210 [/td] [td=10%] 197.7 [/td] [td=10%] 188 [/td] [td=10%] 196.7 [/td] [td=10%] 792.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 19 [/td] [td=10%] Schmidt [/td] [td=10%] 188 [/td] [td=10%] 185.3 [/td] [td=10%] 207.7 [/td] [td=10%] 225 [/td] [td=10%] 172 [/td] [td=10%] 790 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 20 [/td] [td=10%] Halladay [/td] [td=10%] 213.7 [/td] [td=10%] 239.3 [/td] [td=10%] 266 [/td] [td=10%] 133 [/td] [td=10%] 141.7 [/td] [td=10%] 780 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 21 [/td] [td=10%] Wakefield [/td] [td=10%] 124.6 [/td] [td=10%] 163.3 [/td] [td=10%] 202.3 [/td] [td=10%] 188.3 [/td] [td=10%] 225.3 [/td] [td=10%] 779.2 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 22 [/td] [td=10%] Clement [/td] [td=10%] 127.6 [/td] [td=10%] 205 [/td] [td=10%] 201.7 [/td] [td=10%] 181 [/td] [td=10%] 191 [/td] [td=10%] 778.7 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 23 [/td] [td=10%] Mussina [/td] [td=10%] 145.7 [/td] [td=10%] 215.7 [/td] [td=10%] 214.7 [/td] [td=10%] 164.7 [/td] [td=10%] 179.7 [/td] [td=10%] 774.8 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 24 [/td] [td=10%] Millwood [/td] [td=10%] 148.8 [/td] [td=10%] 217 [/td] [td=10%] 222 [/td] [td=10%] 141 [/td] [td=10%] 192 [/td] [td=10%] 772 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 25 [/td] [td=10%] C Zambrano [/td] [td=10%] 172.9 [/td] [td=10%] 108.3 [/td] [td=10%] 214 [/td] [td=10%] 209.7 [/td] [td=10%] 223.3 [/td] [td=10%] 755.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 26 [/td] [td=10%] Radke [/td] [td=10%] 139.8 [/td] [td=10%] 118.3 [/td] [td=10%] 212.3 [/td] [td=10%] 219.7 [/td] [td=10%] 200.7 [/td] [td=10%] 751 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 27 [/td] [td=10%] Schilling [/td] [td=10%] 186.1 [/td] [td=10%] 259.3 [/td] [td=10%] 168 [/td] [td=10%] 226.7 [/td] [td=10%] 93.3 [/td] [td=10%] 747.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 28 [/td] [td=10%] Washburn [/td] [td=10%] 167.2 [/td] [td=10%] 206 [/td] [td=10%] 207.3 [/td] [td=10%] 149.3 [/td] [td=10%] 177.3 [/td] [td=10%] 739.9 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 29 [/td] [td=10%] Santana [/td] [td=10%] 243.9 [/td] [td=10%] 108.3 [/td] [td=10%] 158.3 [/td] [td=10%] 228 [/td] [td=10%] 231.7 [/td] [td=10%] 726.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 30 [/td] [td=10%] PerezOd [/td] [td=10%] 137.6 [/td] [td=10%] 222.3 [/td] [td=10%] 185.3 [/td] [td=10%] 196.3 [/td] [td=10%] 108.7 [/td] [td=10%] 712.6 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 31 [/td] [td=10%] Peavy [/td] [td=10%] 148.8 [/td] [td=10%] 97.7 [/td] [td=10%] 194.7 [/td] [td=10%] 166.6 [/td] [td=10%] 203 [/td] [td=10%] 662 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 32 [/td] [td=10%] Pettitte [/td] [td=10%] 152 [/td] [td=10%] 134.7 [/td] [td=10%] 208.3 [/td] [td=10%] 83 [/td] [td=10%] 222.3 [/td] [td=10%] 648.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 33 [/td] [td=10%] Prior [/td] [td=10%] 147.9 [/td] [td=10%] 116.7 [/td] [td=10%] 211.3 [/td] [td=10%] 118.7 [/td] [td=10%] 166.7 [/td] [td=10%] 613.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]


The same basic take home message holds from this table as well. Good golly, not only do some pitchers make 35 starts a year, but they toss 235 IP per year too. Go figure.

But some of these names were interesting to me. The top 5 pitchers - Buehrle, Hernandez, Colon, Zito and Garcia were all pitchers that I thought tended to be underrated by the online stathead community. And I think it's because their rate stats and projections generally were not all that impressive. Which is probably true and all that, but a significant part of their real value comes from their huge and consistent innings totals.

That's definately true if their future preformance projections heavily regressed thier IP totals. If you nail a pitcher's rate stats over 200 IP and he actually pitches 235, then you've missed nearly 20% of thier value. That's a huge miss for a "perfect" projection.

And, a ha, I thought that's exactly what PECOTA did. So I checked the 2006 projection spreadsheet expecting to find very few pitcher projected to exceed 200 IP.

Except PECOTA predicted that 28 pitchers would pitch between 200-228 innings. Well damn, that did not fit my little pre-conceived notion at all.

Luckily I still have the 2005 projections taking up space on my hard drive. In those projections only 5 pitchers were expected to exceed 200 innings and nobody was projected over 215. That's more like it.

And I went and checked Silver's PECOTA article in BP2006 sure enough he modified the program precisely to better project IP totals. In the old version the IP projection came from the mean IP totals of the comps and therefore was susceptable to a couple of injuried pitchers driving down the total. In the new version he uses the median.

I know people have kind of a love/hate thing going on with PECOTA - how dare they! it's deadly accurate! - but if you get beyond the branding there is a lot of interesting things that Silver tries to do with it. That it's continually undergoing iterative improvements is potentially very interesting because, I think, it gives you a window into how some small set of the "smart people" in baseball are thinking about the processes of player development and career paths.

That Silver and PECOTA are thinking about how to model durability issues - and in one of his chats he mentioned the 3 most important things to improve PECOTA were injury data, injury data, injury data - is a sign that people in front offices are trying to do the same thing to do.

A lot of people are probably pretty good at making rate stat based projections. Is anybody any good at making durability projections? Beats me, but the first team to do so will have a big advantage.

The other little group of pitchers that jumped out at me from that table were Maddux, Moyer, Johnson and Glavine who ranked 7, 8, 9 and 11 in innings pitched from 2002-2005. They're also as old as dirt. And unfortunately, they point out the only fool proof way to determine which pitchers are inherently durable.

Take a couple hundred 18 and 21 yr olds and ask them to pitch 200 IP every year for 10-15 years. The two guys still standing? Those are the durable ones you wanted to lock up longterm 10 years ago. Good luck with that.

So, should the Sox sign Zito (or Schmidt or Matsuzaka)? Beats me.

I do know that most expensive free agent pitchers signed the last two years have been disappointing. Perhaps not as disappointing as watching Jason Johnson, Kyle Snyder, et al, but disappointing nonetheless.

I'm pretty sure that the most valuable pitchers signed this offseason are simply going to be the ones that stay the healthiest. Shocking and true.

I don't know which ones that will be.

Zito's track record is certainly very, very tempting. It's also true that a couple years ago when it looked like he was steadily trending down I figured out that he had been worked as hard as Steve Avery in his early 20s and thought we might be seeing the early signes of a shocking collapse.

That didn't happen. But it might. The A's rode thier Big 3 pretty hard for several years. Mulder and Hudson are both pretty much shot. Is Zito the kind of freak that is just going to keep on going and going or were the A's just able to squeeze a couple more years out of him before he hits the wall? Beats me, but it's at least something to keep in the back of your mind.

#4 V.I. Tessie

  • 1,041 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 06:40 AM

Incredible work Philly. I'm in awe. Love the new tables (nice work Nip).

It really wasn't until this year that durability had even crossed my mind as a very valuable asset. Like many others, I've been "trained" to be wrapped up in the here and now of ERA, WHIP and SO/BB type statistics.

The big question that comes to my mind when I see the astoundingly large numbers of IP for some pitchers is what this really translates to for the future of those pitchers with regards to physical breakdowns.

Do these charts not only show past durability, but raise red flags of possible physical problems in the future?

Is it possible that overuse be misconstrued as durability?

Thanks again for the hard work you put into those tables Philly. Got me thinking this early Friday morning which is not an easy thing to do sometimes.

#5 philly sox fan


  • SoSH Member


  • 9,748 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 06:50 AM

The big question that comes to my mind when I see the astoundingly large numbers of IP for some pitchers is what this really translates to for the future of those pitchers with regards to physical breakdowns.   

Do these charts not only show past durability, but raise red flags of possible physical problems in the future? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Absolutely and that's one thing I meant to point out about the high IP underrated pitchers at the top of the last (I think) table.

Out of that Big 5 Colon finally broke down this year (although it really started in the 05 playoffs) and Livan Hernandez and Buehrle both struggled a fair amount. Was that random variation, normal decline or a hastening decline brought on by some big workloads?

The other two were fine - Freddy Garcia had a solid, typical Garcia year (he said quickly without double checking) and Zito of course was quite good.

But both of those guys have struggled a bit in the past. Maybe heavy workloads mean that there will be an occasional season where the pitcher's arm was just dragging all year but without a serious injury so the pitcher may bounce back without too much of a loss of value. That would bode well for someone like Buehrle for example.

It's a really difficult issue. You want pitchers who have pitched a lot of innings because that is really the only way to prove they can handle that kind of workload, but you don't want them to have pitched so many innings that you're worried about a breakdown.

More so than their stuff and their rate stat based projections, that's going to be the major issue that keeps GMs up all night when they contemplate making 50-70M commitments to Zito, Matsuzaka and Schmidt.

#6 Lose Remerswaal


  • Leaves after the 8th inning


  • 22,570 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 07:01 AM

Excellent work, Philly. I had "noticed" that all the big 2004 pitching Free Agents seemed to have underperformed in my mind other than Lowe, but this really states the case thoroughly.

#7 NickEsasky


  • Code Name: Duchess


  • 6,876 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 07:58 AM

Barring any surgery for Buehrle this off-season I think he would be a very interesting case to follow next year to test your hypothesis Philly.

Buehrle has been worked hard over his career as your stats show but really struggled this year with no apparent injury. So was his down season caused by the heavy workload catching up to him and his arm breaking down, or was this just a year where his arm never got fully rested after the playoff run last year and he will rebound next year.

I think it could be interesting to follow.

#8 Rudy Pemberton


  • Just a string of characters


  • 28,377 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 08:04 AM

Fantastic. I too, have just recently begun to really think about durability and it's value. Some of it has to do with Arroyo, I think. His rate stats were very pedestrian last year, but he did give the team a lot of innings. The same goes for Wakefield- and I think his loss this year was really critical. It's why I really like Zito; he's as good a bet to give you 200+ IP annually than anyone; and even if it's a 4.00 ERA or so, you are at least theoretically avoiding those Snyder / Johnson innings that really killed the team this year. 7 IP a night also allows you to go to your top guys in the pen; so in that sense, Zito's consistently good W-L records may be largely effected by that durability.

#9 Todd Benzinger

  • 4,289 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 08:05 AM

Livan is another interesting example; one very bad year, one excellent year, and 10 striaght years of 200+ IP. Looks like Josh Byrnes made a smart move trading for Livan and getting him at 1yr/7M for 2007... In retrospect, it would have been a nice move for the Sox, too, this year too limit the Jarvis/Snyder/etc innings, assuming the price was reasonable. But at the time it would have seemed like a panic move.

Another thought this chart inspires: the Wells signing looks smarter. old, durable guys come relatively cheap and don't seem to be worse durability bets than younger FA guys. After all, any FA has at least 6 yrs of service time on his arm already...

Edited by Todd Benzinger, 06 October 2006 - 08:09 AM.


#10 bgo544

  • 439 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 08:17 AM

Very interesting stuff. I guess the question is how to predict durability in the future.

Looking at these data, based on past performances the free agent signings by the Sox seemed reasonable - Pedro we expected to have some durability issues, Lowe had been durable, but looking at the Games Started table, Clement seemed like a pretty safe bet to replace Lowe's durability and maybe even give a little more in terms of value over those starts.

As for the high IP guys who fell off, at least Colon might have been predictable, as he isn't exactly the poster boy for conditioning.

#11 Smiling Joe Hesketh


  • now batting steve sal hiney. the leftfielder, hiney


  • 25,692 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 08:18 AM

And Derek Lowe? 70 starts, 440 IP and pretty good results.

That's not to say the Sox should have signed Lowe or that the unaddressed AL/NL issue isn't a huge levelling factor. But it is to say that to the extent that Lowe's durability was something that could be predicted, that kind of pitcher can be pretty valuable. We'll take a closer look at durability issues in a bit.


Some great work, philly. But I wanted to comment on this.

You know who else's durability could have been predicted in this fashion?

Games started, from 1999 through 2005:

31, 34, 31, 32, 32, 30, (signed as a free agent) 32.

IP, 1999-2005

181, 205, 169, 205, 202, 181, 191.

Matt Clement.

What are the differences there in past record leading to predictability of future durability? Clement looked to be as good a bet as any to stay healthy.

#12 V.I. Tessie

  • 1,041 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 08:26 AM

More so than their stuff and their rate stat based projections, that's going to be the major issue that keeps GMs up all night when they contemplate making 50-70M commitments to Zito, Matsuzaka and Schmidt.


But you want to know what REALLY keeps them up at night?

Throw in the "it can all go down the tubes with one throw" factor. Certainly doesn't happen as much in modern day baseball as it did in the past, but a career could very well end with one throw. The most notable case for me is Boo Ferriss.

Fascinating creatures these pitchers.

#13 Rudy Pemberton


  • Just a string of characters


  • 28,377 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 08:26 AM

Good question- I think that probably gets back to scouting. Maybe something with Clement's mechanics could have predicted injury? He has always had a very violent motion. Many of the guys on Philly's list (Buehrle, Zito, Maddux, Glavine, Lowe, etc) have very fluid mechanics. I don't know though, that's not very scientific. Most of those guys aren't hard throwers either.

Clement and Lowe threw a similar number of pitches in 2002-2004, but Clement consistently had to throw more pitchers per batter, even in the NL.

Not a huge difference, but in '04 Clement was throwing 3.87 pitches per batter vs. Lowe's 3.67 (and Lowe was pretty lousy that year). Something to be said for pitches under stress or something? I don't know, probably not as those differences don't appear that significant.

#14 Smiling Joe Hesketh


  • now batting steve sal hiney. the leftfielder, hiney


  • 25,692 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 08:29 AM

Good question- I think that probably gets back to scouting. Maybe something with Clement's mechanics could have predicted injury? He has always had a very violent motion. Many of the guys on Philly's list (Buehrle, Zito, Maddux, Glavine, Lowe, etc) have very fluid mechanics. I don't know though, that's not very scientific. Most of those guys aren't hard throwers either.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Oh sure, I think mechanics have a lot to do with it, as does your excellent point about pitches per at bat. What's odd though is that Clement was still pretty durable in the 6 years leading up to his signing, and in spite of all his troubles last year still managed to make more than 30 starts.

Just by looking at his track record, there's not much there to have labeled him a higher injury risk than Lowe or Radke. Two of those 3 pitchers are now seriously injured.

#15 ragnarok725

  • 4,065 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 08:43 AM

This is actually why I love Ted Lilly. He's been very durable as a whole, has proved himself in the AL East (I know that's a sticking point for many), has similar peripherals to Zito, and has been very durable in his own right. He'll likely also command less than half of the price tag.

We always hear how "pitching wins x y and z", but I'd rather this team load up on offense this off-season. Pitching in general, and free agents are especially thus, is the most volatile commodity in the market, by far. If you sign a big-name bat that has been fairly consistent (IE discounting guys like Beltre who were signed after 1 big year) then you're far, far more likely to get a full season of quality baseball. It's a consistency thing. If this team wants to be a consistent contender, I think it has to be built around a nucleus of reliable, consistent, and excellent position players. Pitching is way too hit and miss to build from, especially in the free agent market. I hate to say it, but this approach is what might win the Yankees the World Series this year. They kept building around big offense, and it has consistently produced making them a consistent contender despite whatever blunders they make in the starting rotation or bullpen.

So if you can get a durable pitcher like Lilly at about half the cost and years of what you'd open the bank for Zito over, I think you do it. You then use that money to buy big offense somewhere. Maybe Aramis Ramirez, or maybe somewhere else. I think the money can be better served elsewhere.

and EDIT: Great stuff Philly. Really fascinating.

Edited by ragnarok725, 06 October 2006 - 08:47 AM.


#16 Rudy Pemberton


  • Just a string of characters


  • 28,377 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 08:47 AM

I have to disagree though....in a division such as the AL East, you are going to need pitching to beat the Yankees (and you have to figure you'll need to get through the MFY at some point). You simply can't build a lineup that will outslug them at this point, IMO. The Indians , White Sox, and Rangers are decent examples of heavy hitting teams that were fairly mediocre this year because their pitching has been poor. Sure, free agent pitching is risky, but I don't see how can you avoid it.

#17 smastroyin


  • simpering whimperer


  • 16,878 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 08:50 AM

This is really great work but the next level is really to look at that 2005 class. For whatever reason (luck, steroid, market dynamic), that looks on a first glance to be the worst free agent pitching class ever, at least in terms of spread. In 2001 you had the Rockies with the double jeopardy of Neagle and Hampton, but you also had Mussina who was fine and some other smaller signings. I can't really find another FA class that just that full of failure, though.

I think the largest overall point - that durability is worth something and perhaps more than most analysts give credit for - is certainly true. However, as SJH points out with the Clement example, durability is extremely hard to predict, especially among this B+ tier of pitchers.

#18 yecul


  • appreciates irony very much


  • 14,353 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 09:03 AM

Lilly has never thrown over 200ip in a season despite hitting 32 starts a couple times. Last year he had 25 starts for 126ip. Aside from last year the other three have been consistent and strong. If you can project him repeating those three years then he's well worth an offer.

Zito's durability is very impressive. It might also be a warning sign, but he very well could be one of the guys who can handle it for another decade. Finding pitchers with comparable workloads and seeing where their careers went after age ~30 would probably be necessary to have any sort of projections. His mechanics are pretty smooth so maybe that's more important than anything else.

#19 Paul M


  • SoSH Member


  • 10,381 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 09:09 AM

This is indeed very interesting. I think groundball/low HR pitchers are just now getting valued like they were worth to their teams. I wonder how Lowe would have fared this year with Boston's strong infield defense?

In the Sox' defense, Lowe in 2004 was able to make 33 starts, but was only a 2-win pitcher. Still, the prior two years as a starter were strong and Lowe did finish great in 2004. LA was really the only suitor, and maybe the Lowe signing is something we can learn from. Bottom line is who imagine Lowe to be the best pitcher in the first two years of the deals signed that winter?

#20 underhandtofirst


  • stud who hits bombs


  • 1,540 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 09:16 AM

I love these types of threads. Going back a couple years ago the Sox reportedly offered Lowe a 3/27 deal in spring training that he turned down. I believe Lowe was even mocked (I put myself in this group) for turning it down and then went out and won 3 games in the postseason and basically made himself 10-15 mil at least.

Looking back at the Red Sox 3 year offers for Pedro and Lowe can we say that their offers (in total) actually look reasonable in hindsight considering their performance through the first 2 years? The Sox problem is that the market is what the most desperate competitor will pay. This skews the value numbers because someone almost always pays for the most optimisitic forecast for the best free agents.

#21 smastroyin


  • simpering whimperer


  • 16,878 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 09:25 AM

Just to take something of a little look.

These are control charts, basically IP versus year for a few guys. Obviously this is illustrative and not scientific. I'm not really looking for age effects or anything, however this roughly covers mid-20's to present or mid-30's. I left out strike years.

Schilling:

Posted Image

Schilling has always had a lot of fluctuation in his IP. This is kind of typical of what you might see from very good pitchers (who are always asked to throw when healthy) who have some injury bugs. This chart ends with his injury year in Arizona. As we know, he had a great, bad, good subsequent three years as a Red Sox. Schilling also has the most "upside" here with quite a few 250+ IP years.

Mussina:

Posted Image

This is Mussina through 2005. You can see he was on a pretty downward trend as a Yankee but got better in 2005. You can't see it on the chart but he was better again this year. You can see a pattern here anyway, though, he has been on a steady downward slope since his first full season (in this case 96 since I excluded strike years) then had a jump up before returning to a downward slope. What the last couple of years tells us about him is beyond me at this point.

Here's Zito's career:

Posted Image

You can see here that he has been really nice and steady. The contrast with Schilling and Mussina is stark. If you note on the right hand side the control limits you will see that his are much smaller than the other two (although the significance of the control limits is limited by the small sample so don't make too much of it).

Of course, moving right along to SJH's elephant in the room, here is our favorite Amish looking pitcher, coming into this year:

Posted Image

Steady although lower than Zito and with a little more variation. In Clement's case, the low IP in year 3 here is a result of horrifically bad pitching - he still made 31 starts that year, but averaged less than 6 IP. Beyond that this is a guy who has been pretty consistent since being a full-time major leaguer. This was, IIRC, one of the reasons the FO cited for wanting him.

And last, we add in Clement 2006:

Posted Image

Whoops!

I would have added Lowe but the bullpen stuff makes the data meaningless, for the most part.

#22 ragnarok725

  • 4,065 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 10:24 AM

I have to disagree though....in a division such as the AL East, you are going to need pitching to beat the Yankees (and you have to figure you'll need to get through the MFY at some point). You simply can't build a lineup that will outslug them at this point, IMO. The Indians , White Sox, and Rangers are decent examples of heavy hitting teams that were fairly mediocre this year because their pitching has been poor. Sure, free agent pitching is risky, but I don't see how can you avoid it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's not so much about out-slugging the Yankees as it is about being the most productive team they can be. If the most consistent way to do that is to have an excellent offense with a good staff and hope your pitching gets hot at the right time, then I think that's the way you go. 2003, 2004, and 2005 are the way that I would go in terms of building this team for the future. Try to build one of the best offenses in the league and use that as a starting point, building pitching around it and hope they get hot at the right time (like they did).

#23 ragnarok725

  • 4,065 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 10:32 AM

Lilly has never thrown over 200ip in a season despite hitting 32 starts a couple times.  Last year he had 25 starts for 126ip.  Aside from last year the other three have been consistent and strong.  If you can project him repeating those three years then he's well worth an offer.

Zito's durability is very impressive.  It might also be a warning sign, but he very well could be one of the guys who can handle it for another decade.  Finding pitchers with comparable workloads and seeing where their careers went after age ~30 would probably be necessary to have any sort of projections.  His mechanics are pretty smooth so maybe that's more important than anything else.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's true, it's tough to compare to Ztio's durability. But I don't think I was exaggerating when I said Zito would command 2x the salary and probably 2x the years that Lilly will. That left over money could be thrown at Matsuzaka, or Ramirez, or elsewhere. The question is whether you think Zito will put up two times the VORP that Lilly will next year and over the next 2-4 years, and I somehow doubt that.

#24 Vermonter At Large


  • SoxFan


  • 3,061 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 11:51 AM

Here are some typically thoughtful comments from our Lurker "DSMariner":

I noted the thread by Philly Sox Fan, and his work on pitcher durability. Great work, and I am sure it is very much on the mind of the Front Office.

A couple of comments. For those who may not have insomnia, the Fit Channel had a piece on Barry Zito (interviewed by Gabby Reece, who could make an interview with the corpse of Mike Remlinger interesting) and his training program. Zito goes though an off season routine that appears exhausting, and is very much geared toward injury prevention, and neurologic muscle control, not just sprints and weights. He includes some Yoga for mental focus. (Very California). Compare this to Boomer Wells extensive work with 12 ounce curls, and glassware, and you have a huge divergence in genetic versus work ethic durability.

http://fittv.discove...ertraining.html

Zitos training site: http://www.nasm.org/Academy/OPT.aspx

Most alarming this year was Papelbons' loss of arm strength toward the end of the year. What exactly was his off season training regime? You have to wonder if there is a desire to do much more scientific and in-depth work out regimens even in the minors. A recent interview with Jordan Craft, a 13th round pick this year shows that apparently the Sox are somewhat ahead of the rest of the league in creating shoulder strength and flexibility program.

"RSN: Could you give me some examples? What have your friends encountered that gives you that perspective?

JC: Just, like, worst hotel. We stay at the Double Tree, a nice hotel. We stay in the dorms. Another team we’ve talked to, they got off the plane, and three days later, they told them to find their own place. That would have been rough. I would not have liked to show up and have to get an apartment first year. Also, I was talking to the other kids about how we’ve got all this structure that [the Red Sox] set up for us. We’ve got our shoulder programs, our stretching, all the things we go through. When I was talking to another kid, he was like, “Yeah, we kind of go out and stretch, and then we throw and do stuff on our own.” "

http://www.redsoxnat...showtopic=22678

Over the winter both Schilling and Youks worked out at API, an extremely professional Sports Training center. Schilling looked great coming into camp, and Youks seemed to have gotten much more "athletic". As the season wore on however they both got beat up, and you have to wonder if that additional training allowed them to work through the dings of a season somewhat better. Garciaparra is actually in the post season, a near miracle given his notorious lack of durability.

http://www.athletesp...estimonials.php

My personal inclination would be to send a lot of guys like Hansen, MDC, and Pedroia to these types of immersion training camps to peak their athletic abilities and to indoctrinate them into becoming professional athletes. How much you can enforce conditioning mid season on veteran players is really up in the air. Interestingly in Boras' leather bound marketing material on Johnny Damon last year there was substantial data on Damons durability and pain tolerance. I would think that Zito's off season work ethic will be a prime consideration in his free agency discussions. As far as I know there is no way to measure genetic joint strength, but injury prevention through advanced conditioning is certainly scoutable.

Regards,

Doug

#25 bowiac


  • I've been living a lie.


  • 9,675 posts

Posted 06 October 2006 - 02:13 PM

In similar vein, a way of figuring out where our respective starting points are on the issue of durability...

Pitcher A: Has been babied relatively. Has no history of injury, and has had his innings ramped up nice and slowly. He'll be 25 next year, and pitched 140 innings last year, which was his career high. He was used a starter in the minors and in college, but was brought up as a reliever in the majors to keep his innings down. This year, he was in sort of the Tim Wakefield role, starting 15 games, and being used a long reliever for the rest of the year. No huge outings, and he was kept to a strict 100 pitch count usage in his starts.

Pitcher B: This guy has been used as a horse. Similarly, he also has no history of injury. However, he's got 900 major league innings on his resume already, having pitched 220+ innings a year in his age 21, 22, 23, and 24 seasons. He'll be 25 next year. In addition to lots of innings, they've been somewhat abusive innings, with lots of complete games, lots of 120 pitch count games, the occasional 130 pitch count games, and a 140 pitch count game once.

Both guys have similar effectiveness per inning to date, and scouts love both of them. Neither one has been injured, both are big guys(6'4", 240lbs lets say), and both has similar "stuff."

Which one do you want to lock up? Are you more worried about heavy usage at a young age, or unproven usage?

#26 ragnarok725

  • 4,065 posts

Posted 10 October 2006 - 12:32 PM

Which one do you want to lock up? Are you more worried about heavy usage at a young age, or unproven usage?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think that's a really interesting post/question, and a relevant one for this off-season. It depends on a lot of things. Does Pitcher A have sustainable mechanics or are scouts amazed he hasn't been under the knife yet? What about Pitcher B? Have either had injury bouts in the minors or in college? I think those are all relevant questions that probably tip the scales one way or the other.

Another thing the question centers around is the nature of the "lock up". If it's big money for 6 years, then I'd rather see the guy with unproven usage because I think he'd be more likely to return effectively from a big injury. A guy who's pitched 900 innings before 25 and then goes down with a big-time elbow/shoulder injury is already in the hole in terms of milage on the arm, and fatigue in his return. But if it's 3-4 years I'd probably take the proven guy, banking on the fact that he can repeat previous performance over a short period of time, with the ability to get out sooner if you end up with a worst case scenario. Obviously the questions I asked above are also relevant here.

#27 bowiac


  • I've been living a lie.


  • 9,675 posts

Posted 10 October 2006 - 12:58 PM

I think that's a really interesting post/question, and a relevant one for this off-season. It depends on a lot of things. Does Pitcher A have sustainable mechanics or are scouts amazed he hasn't been under the knife yet? What about Pitcher B? Have either had injury bouts in the minors or in college? I think those are all relevant questions that probably tip the scales one way or the other.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Both have mechanics that scouts believe to be solid - perhaps not Mark Prior perfect, but no disasters either. Neither one has any injury history to speak of.

Another thing the question centers around is the nature of the "lock up". If it's big money for 6 years, then I'd rather see the guy with unproven usage because I think he'd be more likely to return effectively from a big injury. A guy who's pitched 900 innings before 25 and then goes down with a big-time elbow/shoulder injury is already in the hole in terms of milage on the arm, and fatigue in his return. But if it's 3-4 years I'd probably take the proven guy, banking on the fact that he can repeat previous performance over a short period of time, with the ability to get out sooner if you end up with a worst case scenario. Obviously the questions I asked above are also relevant here.


Lets say it's a like a 6/$90M type deal.

To give my own answer, my suspicion is that for just about any length of time, the guy with heavy usage is the better bet. Lots of innings pitched at a young age don't scare me if the guy got through them without a problem.

The reason I suspect a lot of people would favor the babied pitcher is because of the research saying that lots of innings at a young age leads to injury. While this is true, that doesn't mean you want someone who's been babied. Let me elaborate.

Lets say we have 100 pitchers who're using heavily at a young age. We'll number them 50-149.(I'll explain why in a sec.) Now my suspicion is that basically, some pitchers have the ability to pitch lots of innings without injury, either due to their bodies, their motion, or whatever. Others lack that ability.

So lets say that pitcher 50 can pitch 50 pitches at a time without a serious problem. After that, you've got a major injury risk. Pitcher 60 can go 60, pitcher 70 can go 70, etc... This is more complex that that of course, maybe something like:

For pitcher 100, the first 33 pitches have 0.01% injury risk per pitch, the second 33, have a 0.02% injury risk, the next 33 have a 0.03% injury risk, so at 100 pitches, he's got a 2% chance of getting injured total. You could pitch this guy for 100 pitches, and as long as you stay with that, he's only got a 2% chance per start of going down. However, lets say for him, pitches 100-110 are each an additional 0.1%, so 110 pitches doubles his total injury risk. Then 110-120 are each at 0.5%, so for this guy to go 120 pitches, he's now got 2% for the first 100, 1% for the next 10, and 5% for next 10, so now, a 120 pitch star has about a 7% chance of injuring him.

Some model like that that. For the pitcher numbered 120, the ramping up doesn't happen until pitch 120, and through pitch 120, he's only got a 2% injury risk. For him to get to 7%, he needs to go like 140 pitches.

So a guy like Steve Avery was maybe like a 105. He survived for a while, but eventually, the odds caught up with him. A guy like Livan Hernandez meanwhile is a 130. The odds will eventually catch him as well, but they'll take a lot longer in his case.

So now we're throwing these 100 pichers out there at a young age. Pitchers 50-100 get injured pretty quickly, since they have such low usage tolerances. In time, pitchers 100-120 start to experience problems. So now, we're only left with 30 pitchers left who have been used a lot at a young age without a problem.

Going forward, these 30 pitchers have strong durability, and pitch lots of innings in their mid 20s, and early 30s without a problem. Everyone else experiences issues intermittently however.

So what would this effect look like in the data? Well, you've got 100 pitchers used heavily at a young age, and of them, 70% experienced injury problems. However, of the older pitchers being used heavily, many fewer of them experience injury problems. This was the type of data which I believe led Baseball Prospectus and others that there exists a sort of injury nexus.

However, in my model, all that's going on is that through this trial by fire, we're just selected out the 30 pitchers who are horses and can handle lots of innings. They're the ones who go on to be the older pitchers, and thus when you look at the injury rate for older pitchers, it's much lower than the injury rate for younger guys. That doesn't mean older pitchers are less vulnerable to injury however, it could just be that older pitchers aren't the same sample as younger guys. The 30 guys who survive the trial by fire stay on, and in time, they're joined by 30 others, and 30 others, etc, while 70 guys fall wayside. So the 30 healthiest guys, are healthiest not because of usage, but because they have that ability - to stay healthy.

I believe it's not that there is an injury nexus at a young age, but rather just that a young age is when you're likely to first get tested to see if you can handle a full workload. So sure, the rate of injury among young pitchers is higher, but that doesn't mean that pitching young is more dangerous - it could just be what we call a self selective sample.

So now we've got our two cases. Pitcher A, who has been babied, and never gotten through more than 100 pitches. And pitcher B who has been worked. We know that pitcher B is one of the 30(well, almost certainly) - while we don't know that pitcher A is. Because he's been babied, we don't know if he can hold up to heavier usage later. We know that pitcher B isn't one of the bottom 70. We don't know that yet about A, and so I go with A.

Does this make sense? I haven't really worked this out fully before. Basically, guys like Willis, Bonderman, Buerhle, etc... don't strike me as injury risks because of their heavy usage at a young age, they strike me as good bets to be be healthy because they've shown themselves to be among those who can handle it.

#28 philly sox fan


  • SoSH Member


  • 9,748 posts

Posted 10 October 2006 - 09:48 PM

I think that makes sense.

I believe it's not that there is an injury nexus at a young age, but rather just that a young age is when you're likely to first get tested to see if you can handle a full workload. So sure, the rate of injury among young pitchers is higher, but that doesn't mean that pitching young is more dangerous - it could just be what we call a self selective sample.


One thing that I believe is true is that MLB as an industry is delaying the age at which pitchers are first tested.

Ten years ago it wasn't uncommon to see top prospects throw 180-200 IP in the minors. Now those high IP seasons for minor leaguers are virtually non-existent.

The youngest pitching prospects seem to he held to the 130-150 IP range while the older prospects max out around 170 IP. Those seasonal totals accompanied by in game pitch count restrictions as well of course.

It'll be interesting to see if current pitching prospects are less TINSTAAPPy. However, with or without good empirical data to support it, MLB as an industry has dramatically changed the way it works young pitchers.

#29 941827

  • 3,336 posts

Posted 10 October 2006 - 10:55 PM

Three observations:

(1) Doesn't NL v. AL play a significant role in durability, at least in terms of IP? NL pitchers regularly have the opportunity to pitch around the 8 hitter and throw three strikes to the 9 hitter without fear of reprisal. That's got to be worth quite a bit in terms of durability.

(2) I don't know if it's in Moneyball or not, but I recall Beane saying that he believed that player durability, particularly of pitchers, was the next cutting-edge area of development. DePodesta's signing of Lowe, and the fact that Zito was the only one of the "three aces" retained by the A's, suggests that Beane and DePo were looking at this issue a few years ago.

(3) Durability should be of particular import to a playoff-bound team. Pedro's deal might look OK, but he likely would have been ineffective or out for last year's playoffs, was ineffective for most of this year, and is out of this year's playoffs. Lowe, while less effective overall, was still pitching more or less as his normal self come playoff time. That's a valuable commodity.

#30 philly sox fan


  • SoSH Member


  • 9,748 posts

Posted 10 October 2006 - 11:08 PM

To build the data set a bit I dug up the expensive FA pitchers from the 2003-04 offseason.

FA Pitchers - 2003/04
[td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]
Player Years Dollars AAV Tot GS Tot IP Tot VORP $/10 VORP
Andy Pettitte 3 31.5 10.5 83 519.6 117.2 2.7
Kelvim Escobar 3 18.75 6.25 70 457.3 104.5 1.8
Greg Maddux 3 24 8 102 647.7 95 2.5
Bartolo Colon 4 51 12.75 77 487.3 70.1 5.5
Sidney Ponson 3 22.5 7.5 72 431 -2.4
Total 147.75 404 2542.9 384.4 3.512
Average 9


With the notable exception of Ponson that group looks pretty good. Colon's shoulder injury put his contract in jeapordy of looking pretty poor.

Pettitte had on great year, one solid year and one injury plaged year.

Maddux has been solid mostly because of his durability. He's probably 8-10 years older than his peers and he pitched over 100 innings more than the next guy.

Escobar had two pretty good years wrapped around an injury plagued year that saw him mostly work out of the pen.

What Does an Average Season Look Like?
[td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Tot GS [/td] [td=10%] Tot IP [/td] [td=10%] Tot VORP [/td] [td=10%] Cash [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] FullTot [/td] [td=10%] 404 [/td] [td=10%] 2542.9 [/td] [td=10%] 384.4 [/td] [td=10%] 135 [/td] [td=10%] 3.512 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 15 seasons [/td] [td=10%] 27 [/td] [td=10%] 169.5 [/td] [td=10%] 25.6 [/td] [td=10%] 9 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]


The durability comes up a little short of the 30 start, 200 IP benchmarks, but the average VORP of 25.6 is more than 10 VORP better than the average for the 2004/05 and 2005/06 free agent classes. That's not bad. Solid at least.

How Many Seasons Over 20 VORP?
[td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Pitcher [/td] [td=10%] Year [/td] [td=10%] VORP [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Season 20+ [/td] [td=10%] Pettitte [/td] [td=10%] 2005 [/td] [td=10%] 72.1 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 9 total [/td] [td=10%] Escobar [/td] [td=10%] 2004 [/td] [td=10%] 53.2 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Colon [/td] [td=10%] 2005 [/td] [td=10%] 49.1 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Maddux [/td] [td=10%] 2004 [/td] [td=10%] 34.8 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Escobar [/td] [td=10%] 2006 [/td] [td=10%] 34.1 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Maddux [/td] [td=10%] 2006 [/td] [td=10%] 31.6 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Pettitte [/td] [td=10%] 2006 [/td] [td=10%] 29.1 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Maddux [/td] [td=10%] 2005 [/td] [td=10%] 28.6 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Colon [/td] [td=10%] 2004 [/td] [td=10%] 22.7 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]


The big thing to note that 60% of the seasons were at least over 20 VORP. For the last two FA classes it was 42% (and probably lower when the contracts finally end.

So let's assume that we can pretty well categorize the FA pitcher contracts from 2003/04 and 2004/05 even though most of the latter have a year left to run.

You can group them something like this.

The Good
[td=10%] Pitcher [/td] [td=10%] Years [/td] [td=10%] Dollars [/td] [td=10%] AAV [/td] [td=10%] Tot GS [/td] [td=10%] Tot IP [/td] [td=10%] Tot VORP [/td] [td=10%] $/10 VORP [/td] [td=10%] Why? [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Kelvim Escobar [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 18.75 [/td] [td=10%] 6.25 [/td] [td=10%] 70 [/td] [td=10%] 457.3 [/td] [td=10%] 104.5 [/td] [td=10%] 1.79425837320574 [/td] [td=10%] cheap [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Derek Lowe [/td] [td=10%] 4 [/td] [td=10%] 36 [/td] [td=10%] 9 [/td] [td=10%] 70 [/td] [td=10%] 440 [/td] [td=10%] 72.9 [/td] [td=10%] 2.5 [/td] [td=10%] durable [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Greg Maddux [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 24 [/td] [td=10%] 8 [/td] [td=10%] 102 [/td] [td=10%] 647.7 [/td] [td=10%] 95 [/td] [td=10%] 2.52631578947368 [/td] [td=10%] durable [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Andy Pettitte [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 31.5 [/td] [td=10%] 10.5 [/td] [td=10%] 83 [/td] [td=10%] 519.6 [/td] [td=10%] 117.2 [/td] [td=10%] 2.6877133105802 [/td] [td=10%] great [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Brad Radke [/td] [td=10%] 2 [/td] [td=10%] 18 [/td] [td=10%] 9 [/td] [td=10%] 59 [/td] [td=10%] 363 [/td] [td=10%] 55.3 [/td] [td=10%] 3.3 [/td] [td=10%] short [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Jon Lieber [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 21 [/td] [td=10%] 7 [/td] [td=10%] 62 [/td] [td=10%] 386.3 [/td] [td=10%] 42.9 [/td] [td=10%] 3.3 [/td] [td=10%] durable [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Kris Benson [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 22.5 [/td] [td=10%] 7.5 [/td] [td=10%] 58 [/td] [td=10%] 357.3 [/td] [td=10%] 40 [/td] [td=10%] 3.8 [/td] [td=10%] durable [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] David Wells [/td] [td=10%] 2 [/td] [td=10%] 13.6 [/td] [td=10%] 6.8 [/td] [td=10%] 43 [/td] [td=10%] 259.3 [/td] [td=10%] 34 [/td] [td=10%] 4 [/td] [td=10%] short [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]


I tried to do just a quick one word explanation for why the contract was a good (or at least solid) one. Four of them are mostly about the pitcher's durability. Escobar was relatively cheap because he floated betwen the pen and the rotation in Toronto. Radke worked out because it was short (and he was pretty good in 05). Wells worked out ok because it was short and relatively cheap. Pettitte worked out mostly because of one great Cy Young caliber year.

If there's any kind of lesson it's stay short and look at durability.

The Bad
[td=10%] Pitcher [/td] [td=10%] Years [/td] [td=10%] Dollars [/td] [td=10%] AAV [/td] [td=10%] Tot GS [/td] [td=10%] Tot IP [/td] [td=10%] Tot VORP [/td] [td=10%] $/10 VORP [/td] [td=10%] Why? [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Bartolo Colon [/td] [td=10%] 4 [/td] [td=10%] 51 [/td] [td=10%] 12.75 [/td] [td=10%] 77 [/td] [td=10%] 487.3 [/td] [td=10%] 70.1 [/td] [td=10%] 5.4564907275321 [/td] [td=10%] expensive [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Pedro Martinez [/td] [td=10%] 4 [/td] [td=10%] 53 [/td] [td=10%] 13.25 [/td] [td=10%] 54 [/td] [td=10%] 349.7 [/td] [td=10%] 82 [/td] [td=10%] 3.2 [/td] [td=10%] fragile [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]


I thought the Bad would be a bigger group, but the pitchers I thought would fill out the Bad really belong in the Ugly. These were the only two ace level contracts and neither is really going to work out from a value perspective. Colon really wasn't that good (despite the undeserved Cy Young) and his injury is a looming issue. Pedro is/was that good, but it doesn't look like his shoulder will have held up long enough. I think you can defend both contracts from the perspective of the Angels and Mets as large revenue teams looking to win championships, but they aren't going to end up especially well.

The Ugly
[td=10%] Player [/td] [td=10%] Years [/td] [td=10%] Dollars [/td] [td=10%] AAV [/td] [td=10%] Tot GS [/td] [td=10%] Tot IP [/td] [td=10%] Tot VORP [/td] [td=10%] $/10 VORP [/td] [td=10%] Why? [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Matt Clement [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 25.5 [/td] [td=10%] 8.5 [/td] [td=10%] 44 [/td] [td=10%] 256.3 [/td] [td=10%] 16.6 [/td] [td=10%] 10.2 [/td] [td=10%] injury [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Jaret Wright [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 21 [/td] [td=10%] 7 [/td] [td=10%] 40 [/td] [td=10%] 204 [/td] [td=10%] 8.9 [/td] [td=10%] 15.7 [/td] [td=10%] dumb [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Odalis Perez [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 24 [/td] [td=10%] 8 [/td] [td=10%] 39 [/td] [td=10%] 235 [/td] [td=10%] -0.1 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] injury [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Carl Pavano [/td] [td=10%] 4 [/td] [td=10%] 39.95 [/td] [td=10%] 9.9875 [/td] [td=10%] 17 [/td] [td=10%] 100 [/td] [td=10%] -1.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] dumb* [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Sidney Ponson [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 22.5 [/td] [td=10%] 7.5 [/td] [td=10%] 72 [/td] [td=10%] 431 [/td] [td=10%] -2.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] dumb [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Eric Milton [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 25.5 [/td] [td=10%] 8.5 [/td] [td=10%] 60 [/td] [td=10%] 339 [/td] [td=10%] -16.7 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] dumb [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Russ Ortiz [/td] [td=10%] 4 [/td] [td=10%] 33 [/td] [td=10%] 8.25 [/td] [td=10%] 33 [/td] [td=10%] 178 [/td] [td=10%] -37.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] dumb [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]


Clement and Perez were pretty solid signings - I thought - but injuries will make them lousy values. The other contracts were mostly just plain dumb at the time. I astericked Pavano because while 4/40M was dumb, Pavano at 3/24M or something like that would have been ok and yet still ended up a terrible deal. It's important to note that some of these dumb contract pitchers could have been solid signings at a lower number, but even those more reasonable deals wouldn't have worked out.

One last pair of tables after the break.

#31 philly sox fan


  • SoSH Member


  • 9,748 posts

Posted 10 October 2006 - 11:18 PM

Let's group the non-dumb and dump contracts together and see what that looks like.

The Non-Dumb FA Pitcher Contracts
[td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]
Player Years Dollars AAV Tot GS Tot IP Tot VORP $/10 VORP Why?
Kelvim Escobar 3 18.75 6.25 70 457.3 104.5 1.79425837320574 cheap
Derek Lowe 4 36 9 70 440 72.9 2.5 durable
Greg Maddux 3 24 8 102 647.7 95 2.52631578947368 durable
Andy Pettitte 3 31.5 10.5 83 519.6 117.2 2.6877133105802 great
Brad Radke 2 18 9 59 363 55.3 3.3 short
Jon Lieber 3 21 7 62 386.3 42.9 3.3 durable
Kris Benson 3 22.5 7.5 58 357.3 40 3.8 durable
David Wells 2 13.6 6.8 43 259.3 34 4 short
Bartolo Colon 4 51 12.75 77 487.3 70.1 5.4564907275321 expensive
Pedro Martinez 4 53 13.25 54 349.7 82 3.2 fragile
Matt Clement 3 25.5 8.5 44 256.3 16.6 10.2 injury
Odalis Perez 3 24 8 39 235 -0.1 injury
Total 338.85 761 4758.8 730.4 3.43
Ave 8.95 27 170 26.1


MLB teams have paid these pitchers 250.6M for 28 seasons. The average season has been 27 starts, 170 IP and 26.1 VORP for 8.95M. That's a $/10 VORP of 3.43M. That figure will probably go up a bit, but that's probably a decent benchmark for a good (or at least decent) expensive FA pitcher contract.

Dumb FA Pitcher Contracts
[td=10%] Player [/td] [td=10%] Years [/td] [td=10%] Dollars [/td] [td=10%] AAV [/td] [td=10%] Tot GS [/td] [td=10%] Tot IP [/td] [td=10%] Tot VORP [/td] [td=10%] $/10 VORP [/td] [td=10%] Why? [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Jaret Wright [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 21 [/td] [td=10%] 7 [/td] [td=10%] 40 [/td] [td=10%] 204 [/td] [td=10%] 8.9 [/td] [td=10%] 15.7 [/td] [td=10%] dumb [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Carl Pavano [/td] [td=10%] 4 [/td] [td=10%] 39.95 [/td] [td=10%] 9.9875 [/td] [td=10%] 17 [/td] [td=10%] 100 [/td] [td=10%] -1.3 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] dumb* [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Sidney Ponson [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 22.5 [/td] [td=10%] 7.5 [/td] [td=10%] 72 [/td] [td=10%] 431 [/td] [td=10%] -2.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] dumb [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Eric Milton [/td] [td=10%] 3 [/td] [td=10%] 25.5 [/td] [td=10%] 8.5 [/td] [td=10%] 60 [/td] [td=10%] 339 [/td] [td=10%] -16.7 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] dumb [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Russ Ortiz [/td] [td=10%] 4 [/td] [td=10%] 33 [/td] [td=10%] 8.25 [/td] [td=10%] 33 [/td] [td=10%] 178 [/td] [td=10%] -37.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] dumb [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Total [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 141.95 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 222 [/td] [td=10%] 1252 [/td] [td=10%] -48.9 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] Ave [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] 8.18 [/td] [td=10%] 20 [/td] [td=10%] 114 [/td] [td=10%] -4.4 [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td] [td=10%] [/td]


MLB teams have paid these pitchers 90M for 11 seasons. The average season has been 20 starts, 114 IP and -4.4 VORP for 8.18M. That's a $/10 VORP of, well, really, really bad. These pitchers are owed another 50M without too much promise.

If we go back and use 3.5M as rough approximation of the expected cost per 10 VORP for an expensive FA pitcher, then a pitcher who would be expected to average 40 VORP per year for the life of the contract should cost about 14M per year. That's what Oswalt got for 5 years and seems to be about what Zito is expected to get so in that sense the estimation seems ok.

Are they going to be average 40 VORP per year for maybe 5 years? Who knows. An individual season of 40 VORP isn't that great. It usually ranks around 30th in baseball. For a guy who is paid as an ace that would be a bit of a disappointment, but it's pretty difficult for a pitcher to average that for a 4 or 5 year period.

Even the good FA pitcher contracts are pretty expensive.

#32 philly sox fan


  • SoSH Member


  • 9,748 posts

Posted 10 October 2006 - 11:24 PM

(1) Doesn't NL v. AL play a significant role in durability, at least in terms of IP?  NL pitchers regularly have the opportunity to pitch around the 8 hitter and throw three strikes to the 9 hitter without fear of reprisal.  That's got to be worth quite a bit in terms of durability. 


Yes, I think so and you didn't even mention the talent discrepancy. And it does seem that most of the "durability" successes have ben in the NL.

(2) I don't know if it's in Moneyball or not, but I recall Beane saying that he believed that player durability, particularly of pitchers, was the next cutting-edge area of development.  DePodesta's signing of Lowe, and the fact that Zito was the only one of the "three aces" retained by the A's, suggests that Beane and DePo were looking at this issue a few years ago. 


I think that seems reasonable and it's why I mentioned earlier that Silver's interest in pitcher durability for PECOTA is probably a good proxy for what "smart" teams are trying to understand.

(3)  Durability should be of particular import to a playoff-bound team.  Pedro's deal might look OK, but he likely would have been ineffective or out for last year's playoffs, was ineffective for most of this year, and is out of this year's playoffs.  Lowe, while less effective overall, was still pitching more or less as his normal self come playoff time.  That's a valuable commodity.


I guess, but it's also true that a single high VORP season is more valuable in terms of getting to the playoffs than a couple solid seasons. My little "$/10 VORP" assumes that all wins should cost the same, but that's obviously not true. It shouldn't be too hard to find a 20 VORP pitcher, but it's very hard to upgrade a 30 VORP pitcher to a 50 VORP pitcher.