88 replies to this topic

[SoxFanSince57]

The Blow It Up Roster

For what it is worth, I am fast coming to the conclusion that the Sox are between a rock and a hard-place. While I would like to take another run at it, I am beginning to believe with the FO’s “mind set” about certain players, the dearth of high quality FAs, the age of the team, the extremely high cost of FA talent, the FO’s commitment to build the franchise for the long-term with home grown talent and the team’s very real financial discipline (they won’t overspend the cap) will all lead to the conclusion that they can’t “reload” for a WS drive in 2006 and that instead they should “BLOW IT UP” and start over again.

Here are the “facts” as I see them. First, I believe that the Sox do not want to retain the services of Manny because of his contract. Second, I believe that the Sox will not re-sign Damon because of his age, the length of the deal he is seeking and the money involved. Third and fourth, the Sox believe there is a very real risk that Schilling and Foulke may never reach their prior performance levels. Given these conditions, I believe that the FO will conclude that the team cannot win in 2006. IMO, we should not kid ourselves. If the Sox dump Manny and don’t resign Damon there isn’t enough available pitching talent to build a balanced team that has the talent to make a concerted run at the title. With these conditions in place another run at the WS title represents a “bridge too far” so let’s be prepared for a rebuilding year or two.

Given these assumptions, the only conclusion that I came to is the Sox should “blow it up” and put their long-term strategy in place now. I believe that most of us can agree that the stated long-term strategy of the Sox is to build a winning franchise by growing talent within. If SoSH can accept this position, then I will ask you all to chip in and help me design a team that will compete in 2007 or 2008.

Here is my first pass at clearing shop.

TRADE: David Wells goes to the west coast for a prospect.
TRADE: Manny Ramirez goes to the Mets for Aaron Heilman and prospects and fillers like Mike Cameron—for those of you that know the Mets farm system please rape it. There are way too many SoSHers who are willing to give Manny away for a bucket of balls. As many know, I would demand David Wright for Manny, but I know many think that 40-130 isn’t of much value.
TRADE: Doug Mirabelli for a prospect. We really don’t know how much potential Kelly Shoppach has, so now is the time to find out.
FREE AGENTS: Seek draft picks whenever possible: Mike Stanton, Johnny Damon, Tony Graffanino, Gabe Kapler, John Olerud, Kevin Millar, Dave Berg, Bill Mueller, Matt Mantei, Mike Myers, Mike Timlin, Roberto Petagine
ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE: Sign Bronson Arroyo and trade for a prospect--shitcan the rest: Chad Bradford, Jeremi Gonzalez, Chad Harville, Wade Miller, Adam Hyzdu, and Shawn Wooten

ESSENTIAL TO SIGN: Theo Epstein and Ray Miller (someone who can teach)

Starters
1-Curt Schilling
2-Aaron Heilman
3-Matt Clement
4-Jonathan Papelbon
5-Tim Wakefield

Bullpen
6-Craig Hansen
7-Manny Delcarmen
8-Lenny DiNardo
9-Keith Foulke
10-RP
11-RP

Starters
12-Mike Cameron-CF
13-Edgar Renteria-SS
14-David Ortiz-DH
15-Jason Varitek-C
16-Trot Nixon-RF
17-Duston Pedroia-2B
18-1B
19-Kevin Youkilis-3B
20-LF

Bench
21-Adam Stern
22-Kelly Shoppach
23-Alex Coras
24-Alejandro Machado
25-Platoon mate with Nixon

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 31 October 2005 - 10:38 PM.

[Div School Sox Fan]

For what it's worth, you've got ~$50M to fill the holes on that team.

AJ Burnett to the roation, Brian Giles to LF, Lyle Overbay to 1B and BJ Ryan to the bullpen would all be doable.

Of course, that team wouldn't be so blown up anymore, I guess.

[Yazamatazz]

I have mixed feeling on blowing it up. If that happens, then the Nation will have trouble dealing with ticket prices for an admittedly inferior product. I see attendance dropping off 15% or more, which will have a trickle-down economic effect across the operation. People will pay to see a competetive team at those prices, but I truly doubt if they know this is a "project", they won't be as anxious to plop down $250+ for a night at the old ball yard.

If they're going to be committed to youngsters, that's fine. They just need to let us know that ASAP so we and they can deal with it.

One last thing - I'm afraid everyone is annointing Papelbon too quickly. Give the kid room to breath. He'll be fine, but expectations of him being Cy Papelbon is ridiculous.

[SoxFanSince57]

For what it's worth, you've got ~$50M to fill the holes on that team.

AJ Burnett to the roation, Brian Giles to LF, Lyle Overbay to 1B and BJ Ryan to the bullpen would all be doable.

Of course, that team wouldn't be so blown up anymore, I guess.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for the feedback. I appreciate it. But Giles was born in 1971, is under contract I believe and would cost a lot. Why would you want an old dog on the team like that? Not exactly going with the youth movement.

Overbay is 27-28 I think and a free agent, so I can buy him at 1B.

If you signed Burnett, who would you trade from the staff that I have projected?

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 09 October 2005 - 03:23 PM.

[scotian1]

The Blow It Up Roster

For what it is worth, I am fast coming to the conclusion that the Sox are between a rock and a hard-place.  While I would like to take another run at it, I am beginning to believe with the FO’s “mind set” about certain players, the dearth of high quality FAs, the age of the team, the extremely high cost of FA talent, the FO’s commitment to build the franchise for the long-term with home grown talent and the team’s very real financial discipline (they won’t overspend the cap) will all lead to the conclusion that they can’t “reload” for a WS drive in 2006 and that instead they should “BLOW IT UP” and start over again.

Here are the “facts” as I see them.  First, I believe that the Sox do not want to retain the services of Manny because of his contract.  Second, I believe that the Sox will not re-sign Damon because of his age, the length of the deal he is seeking and the money involved.  Third and fourth, the Sox believe there is a very real risk that Schilling and Foulke may never reach their prior performance levels.  Given these conditions, I believe that the FO will conclude that the team cannot win in 2006.  IMO, we should not kid ourselves.  If the Sox dump Manny and don’t resign Damon there isn’t enough available pitching talent to build a balanced team that has the talent to make a concerted run at the title.  With these conditions in place another run at the WS title represents a “bridge too far” so let’s be prepared for a rebuilding year or two.

Given these assumptions, the only conclusion that I came to is the Sox should “blow it up” and put their long-term strategy in place now. I believe that most of us can agree that the stated long-term strategy of the Sox is to build a winning franchise by growing talent within.  If SoSH can accept this position, then I will ask you all to chip in and help me design a team that will compete in 2007 or 2008.

Here is my first pass at clearing shop.

TRADE: David Wells goes to the west coast for a prospect.
TRADE: Manny Ramirez goes to the Mets for Aaron Heilman and prospects and fillers like Mike Cameron—for those of you that know the Mets farm system please rape it.  There are way too many SoSHers who are willing to give Manny away for a bucket of balls.  As many know, I would demand David Wright for Manny, but I know many think that 40-130 isn’t of much value.
TRADE: Doug Mirabelli for a prospect.  We really don’t know how much potential Kelly Shoppach has, so now is the time to find out.
FREE AGENTS:  Seek draft picks whenever possible: Mike Stanton, Johnny Damon, Tony Graffanino, Gabe Kapler, John Olerud, Kevin Millar, Dave Berg, Bill Mueller, Matt Mantei, Mike Myers, Mike Timlin, Roberto Petagine
ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE: Sign Bronson Arroyo and trade for a prospect--shitcan the rest: Chad Bradford, Jeremi Gonzalez, Chad Harville, Wade Miller, Adam Hyzdu, and Shawn Wooten

ESSENTIAL TO SIGN:  Theo Epstein and Ray Miller (someone who can teach)

Starters
1-Curt Schilling
2-Aaron Heilman
3-Matt Clement
4-Jonathan Papelbon
5-Tim Wakefield

Bullpen
6-Craig Hansen
7-Manny Delcarmen
8-Lenny DiNardo
9-Keith Foulke
10-RP
11-RP

Starters
12-Mike Cameron-CF
13-Edgar Renteria-SS
14-David Ortiz-DH
15-Jason Varitek-C
16-Trot Nixon-RF
17-Duston Pedroia-2B
18-1B
19-Kevin Youkilis-3B
20-LF

Bench
21-Adam Stern
22-Kelly Shoppach
23-Alex Cora—Subs for Renteria, Graffanino and Youkilis
24-Alejandro Machado Alejandro Machado
25-Platoon mate with Nixon

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If you would like to see a sub .500 team this is the recipe for it. Plus I am convinced if Manny goes, Ortiz will be going as well as soon as he is able to make it happen.

[Paradigm]

I have mixed feeling on blowing it up. If that happens, then the Nation will have trouble dealing with ticket prices for an admittedly inferior product. I see attendance dropping off 15% or more, which will have a trickle-down economic effect across the operation. People will pay to see a competetive team at those prices, but I truly doubt if they know this is a "project", they won't be as anxious to plop down $250+ for a night at the old ball yard.

If they're going to be committed to youngsters, that's fine. They just need to let us know that ASAP so we and they can deal with it.

One last thing - I'm afraid everyone is annointing Papelbon too quickly. Give the kid room to breath. He'll be fine, but expectations of him being Cy Papelbon is ridiculous.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i'm not so sure. there are so many people that are solely able to attend Fenway once per year that going to a Sox game has become akin to a "holiday"

for those, sox games will still be as interesting as before

[OilCanShotTupac]

While I sympathize with the argument that Damon's not worth signing for the money/years he will demand, I'm troubled by the lack of replacements out there.

It's just too easy to plug Cameron into that slot, as several people here want to do. He suffered a potentially career ending injury and he may never play again at a high level.

[Lucen]

Interesting thread. For what it's worth, I like a lot of what I see there, assuming the concensus is that we can't win in 06 and need to start building for the future now. I'm not convinced we can't make a run just yet, but I'm definately skeptical. Another thing I have to ask is how much of this is probable, rather than wishful thinking?

First, the idea of trading Manny for Heilman, Cameron and a fwe prospects (Millidge? Someone else want to suggest more?) is a great move for rebuilding. The problem most will have with this is Cameron, since it's possible he'll never be anything but a shell of his former self after that horrible collision. Plus, does anyone here really think Omar is gonna give up more than two of his best young players for Manny? Personally, I don't see that happening. And I definately don't see them adding David Wright to the mix.

I'd like to see David Wells used to bring in a good young prospect as well... I'm not familiar with San Diego's farm system, but I'm sure they have someone worth giving up the consistency that Wells gave us this year. Once again, though... would San Diego be willing to give away good or great prospect for a 1 year rental?

I'd have no problem watching Belli leave town if it nets us another prospect either. I don't even mind if it's for a prospect who won't be major league ready for a few more seasons. He's a great backup catcher, and might even be able to find a starting job in a few cities. I don't see him bringing a top tier, nearly major league ready prospect, but I'm all for giving Kelly a shot on the big league level. Tek has always been praised by other players and I can't imagine working with him would do anything but improve Shoppach.

I also have no problem letting any of the name you mentioned go to pick up draft picks for them. Johnny would bring in a great pick and the rest would bring in decent picks as well. I definately don't see a reason to keep Timlin on board if we're scrapping 2006 since I didn't see him staying beyond next season anyway.

As for resigning Bronson to trade him... I don't know if his value is high enough for that to be worth it. If we're rebuilding, let him pitch another year. His value isn't very good right now, so worse case scenario, we're in the same boat next off season that we are now (if we resign him). Maybe we'd get lucky and he'd improve his value enough to get us something interesting.

And finally, the post after the OP... If we can use that money to sign ALL of those guys, yeah, we have a very solid team again, but that's a big 'if.' I'd love to see it happen, but getting all of those guys just isn't even remotely probable.

[SoxFanSince57]

If you would like to see a sub .500 team this is the recipe for it. Plus I am convinced if Manny goes, Ortiz will be going as well as soon as he is able to make it happen.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You have missed my view entirely. I do not want this to happen.

I posted this, because I have the sick feeling that the Sox will dump Manny and not re-sign Johnny. And if they do that, it is my opinion that they will not be able to win the WS until the youth movement matures. Therefore, IF they shitcan Manny and Johnny, then IMO they should move as fast as there little feet can carry them toward their stated strategic goal of building the franchise from within.

This is an exercise. This is not reality.

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 09 October 2005 - 03:19 PM.

[Lose Remerswaal]

A couple quick replies:

I don't see anyone on the West Coast giving up a real "prospect" for a 42 or 43 year old David Wells coming off of knee surgery. Not sure you'll get much of a prospect for Mirabelli, either. He's a very good backup, but unless your #1 catcher goes down, you don't need a very good backup . . . and who's gonna catch Wakefield next year, Shoppach?

Fenway Park sells itself, it would take at least 2 years of sub .500 ball for attendence to drop even 5%, and it would also take some sort of distaste on top of that for it to happen. As long as it appears that the team is trying, they'll sell out. Too many season tickets out there that people don't want to give up (see Bruins for an example) that cover 90% or so of available seats.

[ragnarok725]

What about the offseason makes people so insane? Why do people lose touch with reality once the games have ended?

The Mets aren't going to give us their top prospect, much less one of the premiere young talents in the league (who is under control for a long time and extremely cost-effective right now as well)? What makes you think we'd even get Milledge their top prospect? Maybe they'd give us Heilman.

Manny's an insanely good player - a hall of famer. But trades and signings are about VALUE. Manny is NOT a great value with his contract and his age, so the Mets are not going to bend over for us. In all likelihood, a trade will not happen, because we will be getting pennies on the dollar in terms of production and with the weak FA class, will have no way to turn that saved $ into production in the line-up.

And really, somebody is going to give up a "great" prospect for a fat 42-year old starter? If the Padres wanted him at the salary he's going to have next year, don't you think they would have given him that contract last offseason? But now they're supposed to trade something of value for it? What's changed? Wells is still the same pitcher, just a year older now.

Blowing it up is going to be a lot tougher than you're saying here, because we have a lot of immovable parts, and if we want ot move them, nobody is going to help us out. We're going to be a lot worse than the line-up you're throwing out there if we choose to "blow it up".

[OttoC]

The Blow It Up Roster
Here is my first pass at clearing shop.

TRADE: David Wells goes to the west coast for a prospect.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wells will be 43 next May and he is already considering retirement. How much trade value do you think he has? For starters, he'd retire before going to a destination he doesn't like, and I doubt he'd accept any trade that didn't give him a larger contract than he could get from the Red Sox.

[CaptainLaddie]

I -pray- that the Red Sox don't get rid of Manny. I hope and pray, because then the EEIdiots have won in this town, once again.

[Buck Showalter]

Trade 43 y/o Wells for a prospect?

Manny and his $60 million remaining for David Wright (a 22 year old kid not eligible for arbitration who arguably is the best player at his position in the NL)?

If you could pull these moves off you'd be nominated for instant access to the Red Sox Hall of Fame.

Let's strenghthen that bullpen with additions like Julian Tavarez and maybe even convince Tony Armas Jr. to become a set-up man / spot starter with us.............let half of the season play-out with Schilling, Wells, Clement, Wakefield & Papelbon / Arroyo.....if it looks like we're a big-pitcher away from heading to the elite of the AL --- then you think about trading a Hanley Ramirez to make a run.

If not......then you become seller at the end of August '06.

Blowing it up in the winter of '05 should not be agenda.

[OCD SS]

What is not being addressed in this thread is that the weak FA class affects all our opponents as well. In a season when we won 95 games and tied for the Division lead without our 2 best pitchers the idea that we don't have a chance to win in '06 strikes me as misguided.

But IMO it is time to 'blow it up'; the difference is that I don't think 'blowing it up' is synonomous with not having a chance to compete and going cheap at every position. What it means is that the Sox have enough roster movement available to them to make changes and that the team will not look the same when pitchers and catchers report, and it might play a different sort of game when the season starts. Ultimately this is still an opportunity, and the limited circumstances of this off-season will favor a creative and audacious GM. Luckily we have one of those (assuming we can get him to resign with us...)

Getting Tito (who I think will be back) to trust the young players he's given will be the key. If the roster he starts with is dramatically different he won't have a lot of choice in the matter. Perhaps we can also spear an extra player or two by taking the draft picks for older, departing players and aggressively signing expensive players who drop in the draft ala Hansen. (Not that I expect them to play immediately, but these players might move through the minors quicker and be ready to contribute when the next big round of players drop off the roster - this is future that we should aggressively plan for).

[Sportsbstn]

The Blow It Up Roster

For what it is worth, I am fast coming to the conclusion that the Sox are between a rock and a hard-place.  While I would like to take another run at it, I am beginning to believe with the FO’s “mind set” about certain players, the dearth of high quality FAs, the age of the team, the extremely high cost of FA talent, the FO’s commitment to build the franchise for the long-term with home grown talent and the team’s very real financial discipline (they won’t overspend the cap) will all lead to the conclusion that they can’t “reload” for a WS drive in 2006 and that instead they should “BLOW IT UP” and start over again.

Here are the “facts” as I see them.  First, I believe that the Sox do not want to retain the services of Manny because of his contract.  Second, I believe that the Sox will not re-sign Damon because of his age, the length of the deal he is seeking and the money involved.  Third and fourth, the Sox believe there is a very real risk that Schilling and Foulke may never reach their prior performance levels.  Given these conditions, I believe that the FO will conclude that the team cannot win in 2006.  IMO, we should not kid ourselves.  If the Sox dump Manny and don’t resign Damon there isn’t enough available pitching talent to build a balanced team that has the talent to make a concerted run at the title.  With these conditions in place another run at the WS title represents a “bridge too far” so let’s be prepared for a rebuilding year or two.

Given these assumptions, the only conclusion that I came to is the Sox should “blow it up” and put their long-term strategy in place now. I believe that most of us can agree that the stated long-term strategy of the Sox is to build a winning franchise by growing talent within.  If SoSH can accept this position, then I will ask you all to chip in and help me design a team that will compete in 2007 or 2008.

Here is my first pass at clearing shop.

TRADE: David Wells goes to the west coast for a prospect.
TRADE: Manny Ramirez goes to the Mets for Aaron Heilman and prospects and fillers like Mike Cameron—for those of you that know the Mets farm system please rape it.  There are way too many SoSHers who are willing to give Manny away for a bucket of balls.  As many know, I would demand David Wright for Manny, but I know many think that 40-130 isn’t of much value.
TRADE: Doug Mirabelli for a prospect.  We really don’t know how much potential Kelly Shoppach has, so now is the time to find out.
FREE AGENTS:  Seek draft picks whenever possible: Mike Stanton, Johnny Damon, Tony Graffanino, Gabe Kapler, John Olerud, Kevin Millar, Dave Berg, Bill Mueller, Matt Mantei, Mike Myers, Mike Timlin, Roberto Petagine
ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE: Sign Bronson Arroyo and trade for a prospect--shitcan the rest: Chad Bradford, Jeremi Gonzalez, Chad Harville, Wade Miller, Adam Hyzdu, and Shawn Wooten

ESSENTIAL TO SIGN:  Theo Epstein and Ray Miller (someone who can teach)

Starters
1-Curt Schilling
2-Aaron Heilman
3-Matt Clement
4-Jonathan Papelbon
5-Tim Wakefield

Bullpen
6-Craig Hansen
7-Manny Delcarmen
8-Lenny DiNardo
9-Keith Foulke
10-RP
11-RP

Starters
12-Mike Cameron-CF
13-Edgar Renteria-SS
14-David Ortiz-DH
15-Jason Varitek-C
16-Trot Nixon-RF
17-Duston Pedroia-2B
18-1B
19-Kevin Youkilis-3B
20-LF

Bench
21-Adam Stern
22-Kelly Shoppach
23-Alex Cora—Subs for Renteria, Graffanino and Youkilis
24-Alejandro Machado Alejandro Machado
25-Platoon mate with Nixon

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A few thoughts:

1. Not sure how Aaron Heilman can possibly be penciled in as a #2 starter, that doesnt make too much sense.

2. Jason Varitek is NOT a cleanup hitter. Trot Nixon is completely lost against lefthanded pitchers, and Mike Cameron doesnt GET ON BASE nearly enough to be an effective leadoff hitter.

This is a pretty mediocre at best hitting lineup, especially because Papi will be pitched around continually.

If Schilling isnt a top flight pitcher again, it is also a poor rotation.

Basically this is nothing short to me of giving up, which will NEVER be accepted given the huge revenue stream the Red Sox have.

Edited by Sportsbstn, 09 October 2005 - 04:54 PM.

[Sportsbstn]

double post

Edited by Sportsbstn, 09 October 2005 - 04:54 PM.

[SoxFanSince57]

Wells will be 43 next May and he is already considering retirement. How much trade value do you think he has? For starters, he'd retire before going to a destination he doesn't like, and I doubt he'd accept any trade that didn't give him a larger contract than he could get from the Red Sox.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Here again is what I have tried to do. Assuming that the Sox trade Manny to the Mets, I will say that they should be able to get at least Aaron Heilman and Mike Cameron. ( If they can't get more I will be really sick.)

Given this assumption my initial rotation consists of:

Starters
1-Curt Schilling
2-Aaron Heilman
3-Matt Clement
4-Jonathan Papelbon
5-Tim Wakefield


This makes Wells expendable. I say trade him for a prospect. His value is undoubtedly low. It may be a crappy prospect given his age and health issues. I did not say it would be a high level prospect. But one thing is for sure, we won't have his potential cost if he does start 20-25 games next year.

If you want to keep Wells, then who on my mythical staff do you dump?

All I am trying to do is to go 90% forward with a youth movement. To me that means cutting costs and getting rid of the old guys like Wells. In 2007 both Schilling and Wakefield will be gone. I am trying to stock pile prospects for that day at the end of the rainbow when the Sox have a young team.

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 09 October 2005 - 05:07 PM.

[67WasBest]

I can see them taking the conservative route, just signing an arm and filling CF and 1B with as good as they can get, but I can also see a possible "Blow it Up" scenario.

Here is my route:

Trades:
1 - Manny, Nixon and Shoppach for Cameron, Floyd and Milledge
Assumptions: Manny upgrades over Floyd, Cameron is better than Nixon (who in this scenario would likely become a platoon player with Diaz), two prospects swapped to fill needs of each team. With the departure of the $13M for Floyd and Cameron and the savings from Piazza and Meinkalphabet, they would have funds to pay Manny and Trot and still have $9M to put toward a closer. the Mets would not have to increase payroll.

2 - Ortiz, Arroyo, Youklis and Sanchez for Santana
Assumptions: Minnesota's offense was so weak, even with Santana, they fell way back in the Central. Ortiz and Youk provide needed offensive upgrades, Arroyo fills one of their starter spots and Sanchez gives them a great arm for 2007, or late 2006. It's a lot to give, but Santana is a lot of pitcher. One other item is Santana starts becoming costly for the Twins in 2007 at $12M. In 2006 there would be a slight cost increse, but in 2007, they would have Ortiz, Arroyo, Youklis and Sanchez for about $1.5M more than what Santana would cost the Sox.

3 - 2 "B prospects" to Houston for Bagwell and an "A prospect",
Assumptions: Houston is desperate to trade Bagwell in order to free the money needed to sign Clemens. They have Berkman and Lamb to fill 1B, so Bagwell is on the block. No one will take all his salary, but we can take on enough to allow them to resign Clemens. For taking on this expense, we take one of their top 3 prospects in exchange. The kids we send back are not in our long term plans

Signings:

1 - Wagner or Ryan, 3 years
2 - Giles, 2 years so he is free when Marcus is free after 07.
3 - Howry, 2 years

Resignings:
Mueller
Grafininno, backup 3B primarily
Timlin

Name 2006 Cap

Pedroia, Dustin $0.32
Mueller, Bill $2
Floyd, Cliff $6.5
Giles, Brian $9
Petagine, Roberto $1
Bagwell, Jeff $9
Varitek, Jason $10
Cameron, Mike $6.5
Renteria, Edgar $10

Schilling, Curt $12.75
Papelbon, Jonathan $0.33
Clement, Matt $9.5
Miller, Wade $2.5
Wakefield, Tim $4
Santana, Johan $9
Wells, David $2.5

Foulke, Keith $6.00
Dinardo, Lenny $0.35
Wagner, Billy $9
Howry, Bobby $2
Delcarmen, Manny $0.33
Timlin, Mike $3.25

Muchado, Alex $0.33
Cora, Alex $1.20
Milledge, Lastings $0.32
Grafininno, Tony $1.5
Mirabelli, Doug $1.4

Smith, Chris $0.31
Merideth, Cla $0.31
Martinez, Edgar $0.31
Ramirez, Hanley $0.31
Stern, Adam $0.31
Lester, Jon $0.31
minor leaguer $0.31
minor leaguer $0.31
minor leaguer $0.31
minor leaguer $0.31
minor leaguer $0.31
minor leaguer $0.31
minor leaguer $0.31
minor leaguer $0.31
minor leaguer $0.31

Sub Total $125.31
Benefits $7.55
Sub Total w/ Benefits $132.86
Luxury Tax Threshold $136.50

We would be older for 2006, but with Bagwell, Floyd and Wells departing in 2007 that would be a temporary affliction. We would be trading our 1, 3 and 4 hitters from 2005 for a deeper, more balanced, albeit weaker lineup. While we would take a hit on offense, we would be vastly upgraded in pitching.

Edited by 67WasBest, 09 October 2005 - 05:09 PM.

[SoxFanSince57]

A few thoughts:
Basically this is nothing short to me of giving up, which will NEVER be accepted given the huge revenue stream the Red Sox have.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The point of the thread is for those of us who believe that trading Manny is a sure sign that the Sox have given up. It is a proposition and that is all. this isn't my ideal team.

I am simply creating a straw-dog based on the assumption that trading Manny and not resigning Johnny is tantamount to "giving up". No matter how hard LL and the FO will try to sell me on how great the Sox will be without them, I will believe that the Sox will be dead meat without Manny and Johnny next year.

So given that belief I stated a thread that said if we are going to lose the WS anyway, we might as well go for our real objective which is to have the resources to build from within and get younger.

Of course I think this "projected" team sucks. I am trying to get folks to "play an exercise" of what they would do to build for the future if there is no chance of winning in 2006.

[Remagellan]

Outside of giving us David Wright, which they would NEVER do, the Mets don't have anything to offer to match the production we'd be losing in Manny. Manny's contract has three years left. Take a look at what's out there and tell me what players you could spend that $20 million on that would come anywhere close to matching the production we'd lose if we trade Manny. Add to that that trading Manny would IMMEDIATELY lessen Ortiz' value, because there isn't a player in baseball not named Bonds, Sheffield, or A-Rod, none of whom we're getting, that would allow him to see the pitches he sees batting before Manny. Manny may be an expensive goofball, a diva, and an occassional distraction, but he is absolutely ESSENTIAL to this team's ability to compete.

This team brings in an INSANE amount of money each year, and they do enough bargain hunting to afford an expensive difference maker like Manny.

If the front office is tired of Manny's antics, I'd just like to remind them that baseball, unlike football, is not like poker. In poker, it's not the strength of any individual card that wins the hand but the combination, so it matters how the cards fit together. But baseball is a game of trumps, and in that game of trumps, Manny is an ace-high trump card that can change a game whenever he's played.

Maybe some guys in the clubhouse will continue to grumble about his oddball ways, but trust me, they'll grumbling more next year about how much they miss his bat in the line-up if he's traded away.

[scotian1]

You have missed my view entirely.  I do not want this to happen.

I posted this, because I have the sick feeling that the Sox will dump Manny and not re-sign Johnny.  And if they do that, it is my opinion that they will not be able to win the WS until the youth movement matures.  Therefore, IF they shitcan Manny and Johnny, then IMO they should move as fast as there little feet can carry them toward their stated strategic goal of building the franchise from within.

This is an exercise.  This is not reality.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry for the mis-read! I guess I am just opposed to seeing a team that is still not that far off being a championship team get rid off the more productive segments of it's offense. I would hope that Theo was being straight forward in the newspaper today when he stated how important Manny was to this team's offense. In my opinion the strength of this teams prospects right now lies in their pitching so bigger roles for Delcarmen, Hansen plus allowing Jon Lester an opportunity would be in order.( look at all the AA pitchers who made a positive impact with their ML teams this season and he was the pitcher of the year there) How we fix CF and 1B and strengthen the pitching are the big questions. I certainly don't oppose giving Pedroia or Youkilis their shots at 2B and 3rd.
If you are right and they do get rid of Manny, we the fans may have to have a lot of patience next year unless Theo can pull off a miracle.

[SoxFanSince57]

Outside of giving us David Wright, which they would NEVER do, the Mets don't have anything to offer to match the production we'd be losing in Manny.  Manny's contract has three years left.  Take a look at what's out there and tell me what players you could spend that $20 million on that would come anywhere close to matching the production we'd lose if we trade Manny.  Add to that that trading Manny would IMMEDIATELY lessen Ortiz' value, because there isn't a player in baseball not named Bonds, Sheffield, or A-Rod, none of whom we're getting, that would allow him to see the pitches he sees batting before Manny.  Manny may be an expensive goofball, a diva, and an occassional distraction, but he is absolutely ESSENTIAL to this team's ability to compete.

This team brings in an INSANE amount of money each year, and they do enough bargain hunting to afford an expensive difference maker like Manny. 

If the front office is tired of Manny's antics, I'd just like to remind them that baseball, unlike football, is not like poker.  In poker, it's not the strength of any individual card that wins the hand but the combination, so it matters how the cards fit together.   But baseball is a game of trumps, and in that game of trumps, Manny is an ace-high trump card that can change a game whenever he's played. 

Maybe some guys in the clubhouse will continue to grumble about his oddball ways, but trust me, they'll grumbling more next year about how much they miss his bat in the line-up if he's traded away.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

For crying out loud.....Read the premise of the thread!

I DO not want to trade Manny.

I am asking SoSH to assume four things and then respond.

Assumption 1: The Sox will find a way to trade Manny
Assumption 2: The Sox will not sign Johnny.
Assumption 3: The Sox believe that Schilling and Foulke will never reach their former glory.
Assumption 4: SoxFanSince57 believes that if 1-3 occur there is nothing the FO can do to win the WS in 2006.

Given these assumption I have asked SoSH members to recommend what they would do to prepare for the future. Remember to play this game you must assume for the purposes of your post that the Sox trade Manny, don't resign Damon and that neither Schilling or Foulke perform well in 2006.

I am simply trying to get your insight into the players we might seek if we were to go balls out in a rebuilding effort.

EDIT: If you believe that the Sox won't trade Manny and will re-sign Johnny and that Curt and Kieth will rebound, there is little purpose to play this game.

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 09 October 2005 - 05:25 PM.

[Spacemans Bong]

I remain very skeptical Lastings Milledge will come in any trade with the Mets.

The Sox will pretty much have to take what they can get since their continued attempts to dump Manny have shot their market.

[hytem]

"Blow it up?"

Obviously not.

They are even up with NY in their division, which spends almost twice as much.
And they were World Champions last year.

They must be doing something right.

But I do think they need to move some of their young players up.
Certainly Papelbon and Youkilis. Maybe Shoppach, Pedroia, Delcarmen,
Lester and Hansen. These guys need a good look.

[biollante]

Don't mess with the Ortiz/\Ramirez combination. Get another front line pitcher and more relief. Then win.

[OttoC]

If you want to keep Wells, then who on my mythical staff do you dump?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm just trying to inject some realism. Suppose Kansas City offered the Red Sox a low-A designated hitter for Wells and the commissioner didn't block the trade, what do you think the destination on Wells's airline ticket will read? California?, NYC, maybe, but I bet it wouldn't be MCI.

This team won 95 games with the worst bullpen in the majors and a starting staff that went from one that had two number one starters a year ago to one that I'd be hard-pressed to say had better anything better than a number three starter. What they need are fewer injuries.

[Buck Showalter]

After reading a few posts back that David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez should be traded and the big hitter to replace them will be Jeff Bagwell (who will be in the final season of his contract at a cost of $17 million) who the Astros are hoping won't be able to play next season in order to collect the insurance on that shoulder that won't let him throw a baseball........I am now able to answer the question "blow it up"? with the following answer:

yup........this thread should be blown up indeed.

[67WasBest]

After reading a few posts back that David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez should be traded and the big hitter to replace them will be Jeff Bagwell (who will be in the final season of his contract at a cost of $17 million) who the Astros are hoping won't be able to play next season in order to collect the insurance on that shoulder that won't let him throw a baseball........I am now able to answer the question "blow it up"? with the following answer:

yup........this thread should be blown up indeed.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I noticed you neglected to mention obtaining Johan Santana and Billy Wagner in what you write, talk about cherry picking to make a point! Or doesn't the pitching staff count when you evaluate a roster?

To directly address what you wrote:

2005 lineup OPS:

Damon, Johnny 0.830
Renteria, Edgar 0.700
Ortiz, David 0.970
Ramirez, Manny 0.950
Nixon, Trot 0.820
Varitek, Jason 0.840
Millar, Kevin 0.750
Mueller, Bill 0.830
Grafininno, Tony 0.810
Total OPS: 7.500

OPS for what I proposed:

Pedroia, Dustin 0.75
Mueller, Bill 0.83
Floyd, Cliff 0.875
Giles, Brian 0.89
Petagine, Roberto 0.85
Bagwell, Jeff 0.85
Varitek, Jason 0.83
Cameron, Mike 0.820
Renteria, Edgar 0.75
Total OPS: 7.445

I'd take that drop in overall OPS if we got Santana and Wagner locked in.

It's pure fantasy, what is so hard for all you "lack of understanding the intent of the thread" people to get. None of it is likely or even probable, just something to pass the time.

Edited by 67WasBest, 09 October 2005 - 08:33 PM.

[Buck Showalter]

Bagwell had a .738 OPS this season in AB-100.......not sure where you got that number.

Between Bagwell, Floyd, Cameron, and Giles.....there's some serious potential for DL time there.

And no - I don't give a lot of 'credit' for bludgeoning your payroll with a free-agent closer like Billy Wagner who will turn 35 during next season when you're building an everyday line-up (when they're healthy) with the example used.

[67WasBest]

Bagwell had a .738 OPS this season in AB-100.......not sure where you got that number.

Between Bagwell, Floyd, Cameron, and Giles.....there's some serious potential for DL time there.

And no - I don't give a lot of 'credit' for bludgeoning your payroll with a free-agent closer like Billy Wagner who will turn 35 during next season when you're building an everyday line-up (when they're healthy) with the example used.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Again, it's pure fantasy, but would Ryan work better for you at closer, I wouldn't care either way. I chose Wagner as like Foulke, this would be his last contract and I think he wouldn't care if he got a 7th inning call to shut down Giambi with the bases loaded. Ryan who is still building his career would be looking for save opportunities, looking toward his next deal.

As for Bagwell, he is throwing a baseball at 20 feet right now, so don't be too quick to cash that insurance check. His shoulder started taking a toll in late 2003, hurt him all of 2004 and into 2005 until he got the surgery. You can attribute his off hitting year to the injury.

His 2003 OPS was .897, he was .913 in 02 and .965 in 01. I think a healthy Bagwell, at 35, is still capable of a .850 OPS. In addition to what I think he can do for us in 2006, it sets us up for a run at Dunn or DLee for 2007.

[TheYellowDart5]

To echo what ragnarok said.

It's rather foolish to assume that, for no good reason, the FO is going to decide to destroy a 95-win team.

And many of the suggestions thrown forth are just downright absurd.

Who's going to give up anything of vaule for David Wells? Or for Mirabelli? Why are the Mets just going to bend over for us in return for Manny? If the FO has indeed decided to blow it up, why would they pick up expensive veterans like Giles or trade prospects for Bagwell or Cliff Floyd?

The premise and suggestions in this thread are in complete disconnect with reality.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I can see them taking the conservative route, just signing an arm and filling CF and 1B with as good as they can get, but I can also see a possible "Blow it Up" scenario.

Here is my route:

2 - Ortiz, Arroyo, Youklis and Sanchez for Santana

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Okay, I assume this is for fun, but really, is it more or less probable that Mark Blount will become a legitimate NBA center than this trade happening?

The Red Sox aren't going to trade Manny unless they get blown away, and they aren't going to get blown away. He has only three years left on his deal. With every minute that passes, his value goes up.

And besides, you know, if the Red Sox don't sign Damon but Jonathan P. becomes the next Roger Clemens (unlikely I realise but possible), then the Red Sox are odds on favourites to win it all next year.

[67WasBest]

Why are the Mets just going to bend over for us in return for Manny?

Not that this from Snow's piece is the Globe today means anything conclusive:

"Dial M for Manny
Pedro Martinez made a show on the last weekend of the regular season to thank the Mets beat writers, handing out business cards that read, ''Pedro Martinez, Pitcher," with his cellphone number. Call only if it's an emergency, he said. What constitutes an emergency, he was asked. ''Call me when we get Manny," was the reply."

But it furthers my belief that a deal was agreed to for after the season.

If the FO has indeed decided to blow it up, why would they pick up expensive veterans like Giles or trade prospects for Bagwell or Cliff Floyd?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Because they are short term solutions (1 to 2 year) that allow us to remain competitive until our own position players can fill roster spots. And as I showed, we can afford these moves. No one is trading any stud kids, or even good kids in todays market, have to fill the roster somehow.

We can depend on our farm to feed us arms right now, but we are looking at 2007, at best, for any real contrinbution from more than Pedroia or Youklis. What I proposed buys us time to get Milledge, Murphy, Corsaletti or Ellsbury ready for the show.

I have assumed for a very long time that manny is gone after this season. If there is no comparable bat available to put behind Ortiz, we are looking at Vladdie treatment for Ortiz in 2006. With that thought in mind, I went in a completely different direction.

If you read it correctly, we would be getting back 1 of Houston's top prospects in the Bagwell deal, for two we don't care about. We also would get back Milledge. In what I described we would lose Youklis, Sanchez and Shoppach from our stable of prospects, and get back Milledge and one of Houston's top 3 prospects, thus the scenario would only cost us the loss of 1 prospect.

On Bagwell, it was as much for the prospect as any reason I chose Houston as my trading partner. If they wanted to start the year above the LT, they could also go for Delgado (rumored to be dealt), but I think we would have to give up too much value to get him. With Bagwell, we give nothing of any value and gain a stud prospect in the deal.

I will say once again, this is pure fantasy and only offered for discussion and as a way to explain where I was coming from in how I approached that retooling I posted.

[67WasBest]

Okay, I assume this is for fun, but really, is it more or less probable that Mark Blount will become a legitimate NBA center than this trade happening?

Yes it is all fun, but I am curious, which side would not take this deal in your opinion?

The Red Sox aren't going to trade Manny unless they get blown away, and they aren't going to get blown away.  He has only three years left on his deal.  With every minute that passes, his value goes up.

While this entire thread is a farce, I do believe we have seen the last of Manny in Boston.

And besides, you know, if the Red Sox don't sign Damon but Jonathan P. becomes the next Roger Clemens (unlikely I realise but possible), then the Red Sox are odds on favourites to win it all next year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I disagree with this on so many levels.

[TheYellowDart5]

But you've missed the point of blowing it up.

If the FO decides that there's no way that the 2006 team can compete for the World Series, then why would they then go out and pick up expensive players?

Blowing it up implies dealing away your expensive veterans and playing a roster comprised of rookies and cheap players. It's also done on the assumption that all the money saved would then go towards acquiring the best of the free-agent class of the following seasons.

What you and other posters have put forward is some kind of half-assed blowing it up in which you're just making the team worse without any of the benefits of blowing it up (promoting the youth, getting rookies experience, saving money, etc). Getting guys like Giles or Bagwell doesn't fit into that philosophy. And since when do any of those guys count as cheap, short-term replacements?

And if you believe that a pre-arranged deal with the Mets is in place because of an off-the-cuff comment by Pedro Martinez, then I really don't know what to tell you.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Yes it is all fun, but I am curious, which side would not take this deal in your opinion?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Both. For lots of reasons, the most important being marketing.

And as for my other point, assuming that G38 can come back and Papelbon wins 20 games, and the Sox stay basically the same with only the loss of Damon, don't you think the Sox get to the playoffs? And then with G38, Papelbon/Clemens, Wells, Clement . . . you don't think the Sox might be favoured?

[redsox1918]

"Blow up the bridge? Blow up the bridge? ....Orders, sir!"

"Nooooooo!"

[saintnick912]

If you're going to blow it up but still try to keep attendance and revenues up then the answer would be to pick up a few expensive but short term veteran players to keep it from becoming a debacle. Those same short contracts will expire around the time the kids are ready or better FA are available. This offseason's crop of FA is no picnic. The counterarugment would be that this sort of strategy of collecting expiring contracts in hopes of drafting well or getting top FA has rarely worked in the NBA>

[67WasBest]

But you've missed the point of blowing it up.

If the FO decides that there's no way that the 2006 team can compete for the World Series, then why would they then go out and pick up expensive players?

Blowing it up implies dealing away your expensive veterans and playing a roster comprised of rookies and cheap players. It's also done on the assumption that all the money saved would then go towards acquiring the best of the free-agent class of the following seasons.

What you and other posters have put forward is some kind of half-assed blowing it up in which you're just making the team worse without any of the benefits of blowing it up (promoting the youth, getting rookies experience, saving money, etc). Getting guys like Giles or Bagwell doesn't fit into that philosophy. And since when do any of those guys count as cheap, short-term replacements?

And if you believe that a pre-arranged deal with the Mets is in place because of an off-the-cuff comment by Pedro Martinez, then I really don't know what to tell you.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Blowing it up IMO means changing what you are doing. Right now we have a powerful lineup that is really built on 4 hitters, Manny, Ortiz, Damon and Tek. By the time the playoffs rolled around, we were a 2.75 hitter team with Manny, Ortiz and some production from Damon. Even with 3 HR's from the Dynamic Duo in the last game, we lost and we lost badly.

My calculations of payroll we have already committed for 2006 is $121 million. If we assume a payroll of $135M that leaves us $13M to sign a CF, a 1B, a reliever and an outfielder to fill the bench. Keep in mind we don't want to be trading away our kids to fill these spots, unless equal or superior value kids are returning.

So to start 2006 with the status quo would mean adding low cost hopefulls to the returning lineup. If that happens, I don't see us being competitive in 2006. It will be a repeat of 2005, maybe a little better with a healthier, but not all the way back, Schilling and Foulke. That roster will return us to the playoffs again, but I don't see it winning another championship.

The Pedro comment was simply the latest in a long line of anecdotal evidence that forms my read on a pre-arranged deal with the Mets. I could be wrong of course, but it won't be long now before we see if I was right on this feeling.

[SoxFanSince57]

Boy, this has tuned into an abortion..dopes please kill it.

I tried to ask members to accept the assumption that the Sox would trade Manny and not resign Johnny. Now isn't that a reasonable possibility given what we have heard?

Then I asked if the Sox did get rid of Manny and Johnny, what actions would SoSH members recommend the FO take to move forward agressively to build from within, get younger and cheaper and field a cometititve team in 07 or 08.

Except for a few posters nobody could either read or they wouldn't play out the exercise.

It is my view the Sox won't win in '06 without Manny and Johnny. The club doesn't have a strong enough pitching staff or access to good enough FA pitchers at a reasonable price to make up for the loss in production. Therefore, everything else the FO does is a productive as shuffling the chairs on the deck of the Titantic.

I wanted to see if we could save a BIG wad of cash, get young, stock pile prospects and prepare for the future. Appearently I can't get a reasonable dialoge on it. So, as it turns out, the thread is indeed pretty useless.

[67WasBest]

Both.  For lots of reasons, the most important being marketing.

And as for my other point, assuming that G38 can come back and Papelbon wins 20 games, and the Sox stay basically the same with only the loss of Damon, don't you think the Sox get to the playoffs?  And then with G38, Papelbon/Clemens, Wells, Clement . . . you  don't think the Sox might be favoured?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

On the first point. This would basically be an offense for pitching swap with the best hitter in the game going for the best pitcher in the game.

I think people tend to look at the names in deals and not the impact of the deal on the team. MN fell to 3rd in their division and both teams above them are younger and more balanced. Losing Santana would be a huge hit for them, but how many more W's is Santana worth than Arroyo? Santana won 16 games in 2005, without a significant offensive upgrade is that number going to improve in 2006? And with the awful FA class of 2005, where does that added offense come from? By making this trade they would have tw plus bats to add to their anemic lineup, and with an expected Torii Hunter trade, they could shop for another arm, while Sanchez presents a real solid prospect to join their rotation in 2007 and certainly by 2008.

From the Boston perspective, we can afford to trade away that much talent because we have the funds to replace it. Mueller and Youk are similar, Arroyo is expendable with Santana on board. Ortiz is impossible to replace offensively with 1 hitter, but by having better hitters throughout the lineup we may get the same overall production.

On the 2nd point. papelbon is a great atlent, but I won't write 20 wins in for him until 2008 at the earliest and 2009 more likely, even Clemens took 3 years to get to the 20 win level. I think replacing Damon is much harder than many are giving credit for. I don't want to pay the last 2 or 3 years of his deal, but I sure would love him back for 2006. I think the same team, minus damon and with a healthy Schilling, Foulke and a sprinkling of kids hgets us into the playoffs, but I don't think it is strong enough to win it all.

[67WasBest]

delete, repost

Edited by 67WasBest, 09 October 2005 - 10:41 PM.

[67WasBest]

delete, repost

Edited by 67WasBest, 09 October 2005 - 10:42 PM.

[SoxFanSince57]

It's rather foolish to assume that, for no good reason, the FO is going to decide to destroy a 95-win team.
The premise and suggestions in this thread are in complete disconnect with reality.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Do you think there is a 40+% chance that the FO wont re-sign Johnny and will trade Manny?---IMO opinion if they do they might not "destroy a 95-win team" but they will guarantee that the 06 version will not win the WS. We may disagree, but that assumption and subsequest assertion is quite reasonable. I might say, if you believe that the Sox can cut Manny and Johnny from the 06 roster, retool and win the WS you are the one here is foolish.

By far most people in the press had speculated that the FO will trade Manny (the 4th time is the charm) and they will not re-sign Johnny Damon given his age and demands. I would say if you fail to see these as two very real possibilities then you are suffering from a complete disconnect with reality.

[Comfortably Lomb]

This thread is ridiculous. Who needs Manny when we all know that Mr. Lucino will send Theo to scour the American, National, and Negro Leagues to find the best available ringers. With players like Honus Wagner, Cap Anson, and Mordecai "Three Fingers" Brown we'll easily win that $1,000,000 bet with Ari Amodopoulos.

[CaptainLaddie]

This thread belongs on NYYFans.com.

Kudos!

[Remagellan]

This thread is ridiculous.  Who needs Manny when we all know that Mr. Lucino will send Theo to scour the American, National, and Negro Leagues to find the best available ringers.  With players like Honus Wagner, Cap Anson, and Mordecai "Three Fingers" Brown we'll easily win that $1,000,000 bet with Ari Amodopoulos.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hey, if they're really blowing it up, why assume that they're resigning Theo (or Francona for that matter)? I'm sure they can find cost-effective replacements for them from the list of available GM and managerial candidates.

[Oil Can Void]

I would demand David Wright for Manny, but I know many think that 40-130 isn’t of much value

I don't care for your tone.

[XNOUGHT]

Manny, Youkilis, Shoppach, Abe, Olerud, and 10M

for

Milledge, Heilman, Wright, Cameron, and Matsui


Mets get 4 starters, 5 is you con't Abe as a longman, Sox get their one "rebuilding" year where they can still compete and 3 players, Milledge, Heilman, and Wright that can provide a cheap rock solid core for the next 4-6 years. Cameron and Matsui will be for the Mets to unload contracts on us. We then keep Cameron or decide to move them both (we probably won't though).