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9/3 ml Gameday: EL Clincher?


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#1 Cuzittt


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 11:18 AM

Today's Games:

IL: Pawtucket (TBD) @ Syracuse (Ismael Ramirez) [6:05pm]
EL: Portland (http://www.sonsofsam...ok/external.png) center right no-repeat; padding-right: 13px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #3366BB; color: #3366BB; cursor:pointer; text-decoration:none;" class="wiki">Frank Brooks) vs. New Hampshire (David Purcey) [1:05pm]
CL: Wilmington (http://www.sonsofsam...ok/external.png) center right no-repeat; padding-right: 13px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #3366BB; color: #3366BB; cursor:pointer; text-decoration:none;" class="wiki">Michael Rozier) vs. Frederick (Craig Anderson) [1:35pm]
SAL: Greenville (TBD) vs. Kannapolis (TBD) [5:05pm]
NYPL: Lowell (TBD) @ Brooklyn (TBD) [5:35pm]

Notes: Portland merely needs to win one of their final 2 games, or have Binghamton lose one of their final 2 games to win the EL North Wild Card.

#2 templeUsox


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 02:26 PM

Mike Rozier was cruising along in his first high-A start, until the 5th inning, where Frederick got to him for 3 runs. His final line:

4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5/3 K/BB

After the 4th inning his line was:

4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 5/2 K/BB

#3 Cuzittt


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 05:39 PM

No clinching for Portland today... as both Portland/New Hampshire and Binghamton/Connecticut were postponed.

-Brandon

#4 Cuzittt


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 05:46 PM

Wilmington defeats Frederick, 5-4.

Mike Rozier goes the first 4 2/3 innings, giving up 6 hits and 3 walks, allowing 4 runs while striking out 5. Kevin Guyette goes the next 2 1/3 innings, giving up a hit and striking out 2. Bryce Cox pitches a perfect 8th, striking out 2. Mike James pitched the final inning, hitting one, striking out one and throwing a WP.

Andrew Pinckney led the offense, going 3/4 with 2 HRs. John Otness went 2/4. Jeff Natale went 1/3 with a HR and 2 walks. Bubba Bell went 1/3 with a triple and a walk. Ian Bladergroen went 1/3 with a HBP. Jed Lowrie went 1/4. Jeff Corsaletti went 0/3 with 2 walks and was picked off. Jay Johnson and Claudio Arias each went 0/4.

Boxscore

-Brandon

#5 templeUsox


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 05:53 PM

GB% by level:

Posted Image

#6 Cuzittt


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 07:20 PM

Greenville loses to Kannapolis, 4-2.

Ryan Philips went the first 6 innings, giving up 5 hits (2 HRs) and a walk, allowing 3 runs while striking out 6. Kyle Fernandes pitched the final 3 innings, giving up 3 hits and a walk, allowing a run while striking out 2.

Tony Granadillo led the offense, going 2/3 with a HR and a walk. Ryan Khoury also went 2/3 with a walk and 2 SBs. Matt Mercurio went 2/4. Yahmed Yema went 1/4. Mickey Hall, Dominic Ramos, Aaron Bates, Dustin Kelly and Mitch Stachowsky each went 0/4.

Boxscore

-Brandon

#7 Cuzittt


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 08:13 PM

Lowell defeats Brooklyn, 9-6.

Felix Doubrant went the first 5 innings, giving up 3 hits (1 HR), a walk and a HBP, allowing 4 runs while striking out 3. Dustin Richardson went the next 2 innings, giving up a hit, a walk and striking out 3. Yulkin German came in to start the 8th, but was apparently cursed by David Laurila's interview, as he left due to an injured back either during warmup or during his first batter. Jean Guillen came in for German, going 2/3rds of an inning, giving up 2 hits and 3 walks, allowing 2 runs while striking out one. Josh Papelbon went the final 1 1/3 innings, walking one and striking out 3.

Manny Arambarris went 3/4 with a HR and a walk. Mike Jones went 3/5 with his first Lowell HR and 4 RBI. Chih-Hsien Chiang and Jon Still each went 2/5; Chaing with a triple. Ryan Kalish went 1/3 with a walk and a SB. Paul Smyth went 1/4 with a walk. Kris Negron and Reid Engel each went 1/5; Negron with a double. Luis Exposito went 0/4.

Boxscore

-Brandon

#8 Cuzittt


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 08:30 PM

Pawsox defeat Syracuse 7-4 in 12 innings.

Chris Smith went the first 6 innings, giving up 6 hits (1 HR) and 2 runs, striking out 6. Craig Hansen went the next 1 2/3 innings, giving up 2 hits and a run, striking out 3. David Lee picked up the final out of the 8th. Jermaine Van Buren blew the save, going 2 innings, giving up 3 hits and a walk, allowing a run while striking out 2. Jason Richardson picked up his first Pawtucket win, going the final 2 innings, giving up a hit and striking out one.

Willie Harris, Jeff Bailey and Trent Durrington each went 3/6; Harris with a double and a HR, Bailey with 2 doubles, and Durrington with a double and a SB. Alejandro Machado, Ron Calloway and Corky Miller each went 2/6; Miller with a double. Tyler Minges and Ken Huckaby each went 1/6. Chuck Jeroloman went 0/5.

Boxscore

-Brandon

#9 GriffinDoerr


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 09:16 PM

Josh Papelbon with 12 saves and a 1.33 ERA? I'd say the kid has been a nice surprise. :)

#10 philly sox fan


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 09:22 PM

GB% by level:

Posted Image

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


That's interesting. Given the huge power differences between the levels I would have expected a bigger difference. The way it's narrowly scaled makes it look like a pretty dramatic difference - the AAA bar is less than half the Rookie bar - but the real difference is less than 5%.

#11 RoDaddy

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Posted 03 September 2006 - 09:44 PM

Josh Papelbon with 12 saves and a 1.33 ERA? I'd say the kid has been a nice surprise.  :)

Yeah, I'm kinda surprised he wasn't promoted this year. He's been so dominant (WHIP = 0.86!) that he reminds me of Cla Meredith, who moved up the ladder real fast in 2004-5.

#12 templeUsox


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 09:55 PM

That's interesting.  Given the huge power differences between the levels I would have expected a bigger difference.  The way it's narrowly scaled makes it look like a pretty dramatic difference - the AAA bar is less than half the Rookie bar - but the real difference is less than 5%.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is it a small difference? Though I was expecting a downward slope, I didn't know how much to expect. What were your expectations?

#13 philly sox fan


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 10:45 PM

Is it a small difference?  Though I was expecting a downward slope, I didn't know how much to expect.  What were your expectations?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I'm not sure what I expected, but there's such a massive difference in the importance of power as you move up that it seems like it should be bigger.

Anyway, just off the top of my head here's some screwing around with 2005 ml stats that I have.

In AAA HR/BIP was 0.037 vs 0.017 in SS ball. That's obviously pretty substantial and of course I'm counting HR as BIP.

Looking at all xbh it's 0.116 in AAA vs 0.093 in R which is actually pretty damn small. Huh.

So ignoring the HR and just looking at 2B+3B per BIP: 0.079 in AAA and 0.076 in R.

So despite the difference in gb% the number of non-HR xbh per BIP is basically the same. That's a little odd, but I guess it makes sense that in the lousy fielding low minors there are a ton of gbs that go for xbhs. Is there a big LD difference?

Anyway, just about all of the power difference - and it's really quite large - is in the number of HR per BIP.

Assuming your numbers were roughly the same in 05, I can estimate the number of FB and then the number of HR per FB. In AAA it's ~0.077 vs 0.034 in R.

So the key issue in understanding the power difference as you move up the ladder isn't that AAA hitters get the ball in the air 5% more often than R hitters, it's that once the balls are in the air AAA hitters are twice as likely to hit FBs for HR.

So if you're looking at using this kind of hit type data to indicate power potential are you more interested in the low minors hitters who simply get the ball in the air more often than their peers or the low minors hitters who are already getting more out of their FBs regardless of their relative frequency? Probably the latter because what makes a good high minors hitter isn't the ability to get the ball in the air (a relatively small 5% increase as you move up the ladder) it's the ability to hit those FBs over the wall (a very large 100% increase).

I think that makes sense.

#14 templeUsox


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 10:49 PM

So does this lend credence to the scouting cliche that "those doubles will turn into homeruns as player X ages?"

I'm going to do the LD and FB % now, so that is upcoming.

#15 philly sox fan


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 10:55 PM

So does this lend credence to the scouting cliche that "those doubles will turn into homeruns as player X ages?"

I'm going to do the LD and FB % now, so that is upcoming.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Hmm... I guess you'd want to know both how 2B/FB and HR/FB change as you move up the ladder. In theory you'd see low minors hitters with high 2B/FB, but low HR/FB ratios become hitters with average 2B/FB, but high HR/FB ratios, right? Could be.

Although a good chunk of 2B are LDs and apparently the coding of LDs can be murky so maybe that keeps a persistent layer of confusion on this type of analysis.

#16 templeUsox


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Posted 03 September 2006 - 11:49 PM

Granted, the line drive coding is definitely suspect. I can't imagine the scorekeepers at an AZL Padres game or GCL Tigers game are too concerned with 100% accuracy. But under the assumption the scorings are accurate, here is the LD% chart. I don't really know what to make of it, other than perhaps it shows that double-A is really the separation point at which the cream of the crop hitters start to rise above the pitchers.

Posted Image


Here is the 2B/FB vs. HR/FB, with HR/FB being kept constant, as to show the decrease in 2B/FB in relation to HR/FB level by level:

Posted Image

Edited by templeUsox, 03 September 2006 - 11:51 PM.


#17 philly sox fan


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Posted 04 September 2006 - 12:18 AM

The big jump in the LD5 chart is actually off the chart. THT has the MLB average as just under 20%. Now that's BIS coding and Fangraphs is MiLB coding right? So who knows, but flat in A ball, a couple % jump in AA, another couple % up to AAA and then about 3.5% up to MLB.

Boy, that certainly fits with the idea of the jump to AA and then to majors as major challenges for young pitchers. All of a sudden the hitters are smacking line drives all over the place.

And I guess 2B do turn into HR.

Interesting stuff.

#18 Cuzittt


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Posted 04 September 2006 - 08:18 AM

Pawsox Stories:

Game Story

Pitcher Chris Smith has resisted the temptation to ask himself the "What if" question, as in what if:

He didn't break his right forearm in an ATV accident, which caused him to miss the first 3 1/2 months of the 2003 season.

After making 14 starts for Portland in 2004, he didn't miss the rest of the season with a partially torn labrum.

Right shoulder tendinitis didn't limit him to 16 starts in 2005.

Smith, who began the season with Portland, made his seventh appearance (sixth start) last night for Pawtucket. Even though he came away with a no-decision, he pitched six solid innings as Pawtucket scored three runs in the 12th -- the first on Willie Harris' leadoff homer -- en route to a 7-4 victory over the Syracuse SkyChiefs.


Sea Dogs Stories:

Rain, Rain, Go Away

All of the Portland Sea Dogs' grand plans for "Field of Dreams" day were put on hold Sunday afternoon.

Remnants of Hurricane Ernesto hit the Portland area just before the scheduled 1 p.m. start time, soaking Hadlock Field. The rain postponed Sunday's game against New Hampshire to 1 p.m. today, part of a regular season-ending doubleheader against the Fisher Cats at Hadlock Field.

The teams will play two-seven inning games, and it's one of two doubleheaders on the Eastern League schedule for Labor Day.

The other doubleheader? Binghamton at Connecticut. The Mets and the Defenders were also rained out Sunday, forcing two games today at Norwich, Conn.

Portland (71-67) is in second place in the Northern Division, two games ahead of Binghamton (69-69) and 6 1/2 games behind division winner Trenton. The two top teams in the division qualify for the playoffs


Blue Rocks Stories:

Game Story

It was a day of records at Frawley Stadium, when Jeff Corsaletti set one and Mike James tied another.

But it was Andrew Pinckney's big day at the plate that sparked the Blue Rocks to a 5-4 win against Frederick on Sunday afternoon. The third baseman went 3-for-4 with two home runs.

The Rocks secured a three-game winning streak for the first time since July 29, beating Frederick for the second straight day.


Drive Stories:

Game Story

The streak finally came to an end.

Wearing their green jerseys for the third consecutive night, the Greenville Drive hoped they could remain undefeated in the outfit originally worn to celebrate Greenville's 175th birthday.

With a 4-2 loss to the Kannapolis Intimidators in front of 4,795 at West End Field, Greenville's streak in the jerseys ended at five.

After taking a 2-1 lead in the third, Greenville was shut out the rest of the way, while the Intimidators scored solo runs in the fifth, sixth and ninth to claim their first victory in the four-game series.

"We couldn't get much going," said Greenville manager Luis Alicea. "(Third baseman Tony) Granadillo had a good day, (shortstop Ryan) Khoury had a good day and (second baseman Matt) Mercurio had a good day. That was about it. Other than that, it was a collective effort."


-Brandon