Buster Olney reported on ESPN this morning that the Sox bumped Lester to Game 3 because of the heavy workload he's had this season. He then stated, without quoting the Sox directly, that they're hoping to minimize his innings and keep him fresh for the World Series. Ostensibly, the only way Lester would pitch twice in the ALCS is if it goes 7 games.

On the surface, this smacks of a "cart before the horse" move, as well as bulletin board fodder for the Rays. But maybe there's something to their logic, even if it wasn't expressed by Olney the way the Sox' FO would have liked. I'm sure they'd have preferred that Olney not have mentioned anything about the World Series. Or that he have just kept his mouth shut altogether.

Lester has now thrown 224.1 innings this year. Last season he threw just 159.2 innings, which was a career-high for him. Previously, he'd thrown 148.1 in 2005 (all for Portland) and 128 in 2006 (between Pawtucket and Boston).

While I can appreciate being concerned about the guy, I'm struck by the following:

* We're likely talking about an additional 7 innings if he gets an extra start in the ALCS and pitches well. Big whoop, right?
* The extra days' rest built into the postseason between series ought to provide sufficient recuperation.
* Lester has clearly gotten stronger late in the game over his last several starts. Not exactly the sign of a pitcher wearing down.
* By most accounts, Lester's mechanics are extremely sound -- balanced, relying on weight displacement and his legs rather than arm whip. In other words, the anti-Prior.
* He got a 13-day rest between starts, apparently by design, at the All-Star Break.
* Lester started the season gingerly, in part because he wasn't particularly effective early on. His season-high pitch count was 130 back on 5/19. It was only the third outing with more than 97 pitches in his first 12 starts.
* He averaged 100.27 pitches per start in the regular season, ranking 37th in the majors.

On the other hand:

* He ranks 12th in BP.com's Pitcher Abuse Points, if you buy into that metric.
* The 3,309 pitches he threw over the regular season ranked 21st in the majors, but after tacking on the 226 he threw in the ALDS he now ranks 8th at 3535.
* If he throws his season-average of 100 pitches in Game 3, he'll vault ahead of everyone on the list except C.C. Sabathia (3,814). Two more similar postseason starts would put him over the top.

I believe Olney's report is legit. After all, Theo went on record that they were prepared to pull Buchholz in the midst of his '07 no-hitter had he hit his pitch ceiling.

Yet they contradicted that approach to some degree last season, when Daisuke threw 3,865 pitches in the regular and postseason -- ahead of Zambrano's 3,689 for most in the majors -- despite having to adjust to new ball dimensions and different workout parameters. Yes, he had racked up comparatively insane pitch counts in Japan, and the Sox imposed new pitch limits per game, but that approach did little to conserve the cumulative wear on their $103 million investment.

So, assuming Olney's report is accurate, are the Sox being sensible here? Or are they being overprotective at the most critical juncture of the season?

EDIT - I realize there's been a good amount of discussion on this topic in the "Let's Talk About Lester" thread, but I figured breaking this out made sense.

I think what is missing from this comparison is that the only other (realistic) option was to start him in Game 2. where they currently have Beckett slated. If the Red Sox feel that Beckett's last start really was just rust and he'll be a lot better this time out, then the difference between him starting and Lester starting is very small. When you factor that in then I think protecting the kid makes a lot more sense.

I don't think that the Sox are being oversensitive. Lester was only going to have a chance to make two starts in the ALCS anyways, so you might as well give your best pitcher the starts that make it most likely that he'd be extra-fresh for a possible next series. FWIW, Lester pitched 7.1 scoreless innings allowing 7 base-hits, one double, and no walks after his ASG break.

For all the talk of which game is better for which pitcher, it doesn't really matter as long as the three best pitchers have the opportunity to make two starts each, if necessary.

It's also important to note that, if Beckett was healthy for his last start and they were worried about him not being sharp because of too long away from the mound, 7 days rest was probably not what the doctor ordered for him.

I certainly think the Sox are watching him closely. I can't find a link right now but I remember an interview with Francona where he said they would consider reducing his work in spring training next year based upon his innings this year. I remember because I hadn't yet read anything about reduced spring work being effective in countering a large workload the previous season.

Anyway, it bears watching.

Thanks dog for a new thread.

I do think they should be concerned about Lester's workload, but I'm not sure that is anything more than another reason to push him back to game 3. I don't think they are lying about their concern but I do think this is a small factor compared to such things as preferring him to start at home for game 3. I know they would typically throw a lot of that stuff out the window for the playoffs, but I think they are happier with starting the series off on the road with Matsuzaka and Beckett. As I posted in the rotation thread, if they feel Beckett is ready to be postseason Beckett than I really don't think the delta between the two pitchers is very high, and may even skew back to Beckett in terms of expected performance.

I guess what I'm saying is that if the rotation is Lester and a bunch of bums, this is a real issue. But, unless you believe that we weill get repeats of their ALDS performances, the other two guys are pretty damn good themselves. If the Red Sox felt it was more important to preserve Lester's arm than to improve their odds of winning the series, I would agree with you. But in this case, I think they feel that getting less wear on Jon's arm is "free" in terms of the odds of winning the series. On the other hand, if they had said "Lester has pitched too much already, we are only going to use him in game 4 in the ALCS and are starting Tim Wakefield twice instead," then that would put me right on the "they are being overly protective" bandwagon.

As for the way Olney reported it, I'm sure that the Sox mentioned the World Series but in theoretical terms, i.e. "well, if we are good enough to advance past the Rays and Jon makes two starts in the ALCS, then he might have to make two more in the World Series and we think that would be pushing it and want to minimize the risk there" as opposed to the implied "we are going to handle the Rays ether way, so we may as well not throw Lester as much."

Great post, 'Dog. I am not as concerned as most are about Lester because, like Dog said, he has been getting stronger as the games have been going on. I will not question the FO in any decision regarding the young pitching because they have a great track record, but I think they are being a little too cautious. He has gotten better each month of the season with the strength in his body coming back full-bore after a transistion year in 2007 plus his free and easy motion that he seems to have puts little stress on his body. Buck Martinez said during Game 4 that he sees Lester as a 215-225 IP/year pitcher for the rest of his career(take it FWIW). On the other hand, the long season might be getting to Lester mentally with his comments saying that he was done after the 7th.

If they want to limit his innings, Game 3 is a good game in this series to take advantage of the oppurtunity with the bullpen rested after the offday on Sunday. We might be seeing Paul Byrd following Lester if this is the case.

The WS implication of this move is only bulletin board material for the Rays if someone in the Sox organization is stupid enough to say it out loud.

I've expressed my opinion on Lester's IP/pitch count in the other thread, so I won't rehash it here. Suffice to say, the time to do anything significant about reducing his workload has passed. It's postseason and you pretty much have to go 'balls to the wall' from here on out. But pushing Lester back to Game 3 certainly makes sense on a couple of levels. The number one reason, IMO, being that Lester performs better at Fenway and Beckett has been better away from Fenway over the last 2 seasons. Might as well use those splits to your advantage, particularly if they feel Beckett is at or close to 100%. And sure while you're at it, might as well take a shot at only having Lester pitch one game during the ALCS. If it should come down to a Game 7, you've got your ace ready to go. Of course if everything works out, there won't be a Game 7 and Lester will be well rested and ready to start WS Game 1.

I can't find any fault with this move, although I think there is probably more going on behind the scenes. In the end,
If the Sox win this year it will be in large part to having the best 3-man rotation assembled in the post-season. All three
have to be good to pull this off.

I also think that, quietly, the team is probably most concerned about Beckett at this point. He's been less than lights-out in Fenway this year, so moving Lester back puts Beckett on the mound at the Trop to help get the bugs out.

Speaking of potential bulletin board material - from Joe McDonald on Projo's Sox Blog:



I think a certain Texan may take offense to this.

I'm not sure what to make of Pitcher Abuse Points, especially as we are quite limited in applying the formula historically because the number of pitches thrown is not readily available until recent years. Although BP's PAP data goes back to 1954, if you look at the data, say for Curt Simmons in 1956, you find he is listed in second place for Average PAP but the pitch count is only available for one of his 27 starts. If you move to 1986, they don'r seem to have any pitch counts at all.

As for this year's numbers, they are highly logarithmic. Taking the Average PAPs from 0 to Max(Average Pap) and fitting a curve gives you:

y= -645.2 * ln(x) + 3315.6 with r=0.97

It's a very good fit but does it have predictive value?

I actually started a thread on this ago during the summer, but it died on the vine, as it was too early for people to worry about this. Now, it's too late.

I agree with BBA that there really isn't any time left to do anything. Dog touched on this during his (great) post, but he's already thrown his number of innings. You can't unpitch those, so to speak, so his workload this season has been about 95% established.

Where I do disagree with BBA is the reason for letting pitch as much as possible for the rest of the way out. It's not because it's you have to go "balls to wall" during the postseason (although this is a add bonus) at the risk of his long-term future. It's because an extra 16-22 innings over 2-3 starts will make a huge difference next year. In short, next year will play out the same regardless of many more starts he makes this postseason, barring something insane like a 170 pitch outing.

The time to take precautions against this was during the 2nd half of the season, if that's what they wanted to do. Personally, I have no problems with how he was handled. But if you're going to make the argument on "protecting him for next year" or reducing his workload, you must do so in regards to the whole second half of the season, not on the couple starts that are left.

I don't think that the implication here was that they were trying to protect him for next year. I think that the concern is that his arm will start to drag at some point this year.

Again, I don't think the team is REALLY concerned about it, but if each of the top three pitchers are going to pitch a maximum of two games and a minimum of one this series, it is only prudent to let the guy whose arm has logged the most innings pitch in only one, if possible.

Considering that huge increase in his IP from anything he's ever done before and the pressure of being "the Man"™ for the first time at this level, it may be that they are trying to improve the chances that he will perform at the highest level and not have an off game due to fatigue at such a critical juncture.

To consolidate some points in favor of this strategy:

Two starts per top pitcher on team either way if necessary
Potentially lessens wear and tear after making a huge leap in IP
Provides rest for post season effectiveness
If 2nd start not needed, he's first up for the WS, where he could potentially pitch 3 times if rested

Seems like the kind of thinking I'm getting used to from the Henry/Epstein/Francona regime.

That's fair, I misinterpreted the original cause for caution. I do agree with you, and the Sox organization, to handle it this way. Namely because there's very little downside, with a lot of possible upside. Worst case is that he makes 2 starts in the ALCS anyways.

Couldn't it have as much to do with strategy as Lester's innings count?

The Sox were what, 1 of 9 at Tampa this year right? Now sure, they got the win last night but going into the series there was a distinct possibility that in order to win this series we'd need to be perfect at home and hope for a single win in Tampa. If we had gone with Matsuzaka and Lester for games 1 and 2 and we lost both games to Tampa we'd be betting on Beckett being 100% effective to get us a crucial game 3 win at home. With how it is ordered now even if Matsuzaka had lost and Beckett lost tonight we'd have clearly our best pitcher, Lester, waiting to play stopper at home, the ideal situation to at least bring the series to 2-1.

We're playing a young team that has thrived on momentum all season long. I'm not personally a big believer in that psychological mumbo jumbo, but Joe Maddon seems to disagree and he's had his team running on that fuel for the whole season. The last thing we need in this series is the Rays getting a charge from a game 3 victory to open up the trio of Fenway games. Lester is the best choice to make sure we start the home stand with the metaphorical big blow to the gut, leaving the young Rays questioning if they really belong here.

I'm sure he's sick of this kind of thing, but still very nice recognition for Lester.

Lester wins 2008 Hutch Award

A little more info on the HA:

Wiki on Hutch

Check out the past recipients. Dude is in very good company.

Good to see that Jason Giambi was awarded for his "fighting spirit and competitive desire to win" in 2000. He certainly went the extra mile.