Not something I have any interest in at the moment, but I caught it in today's Globe and figured it could be worthwhile information after the Red Sox win the World Series

We've just recently started discussing the Yanks and Peavy, starting with a mention from jtn46. I love Peavy, and would love to have him. But as we've started discussing in the Yanks forum, it would be an expensive trade. We're talking Santana-esqe blockbuster trade. Atm, I don't think we have any disposible aces up our sleeve to trade off, so unless they want 7 double A guys, I don't forsee us getting him.
IIRC, the Twins wanted Lester/Buchholz + Ellsbury as a starting point, and we balked at that price.

There's also been a Peavy thread in the Sandbox for the past week. The chatter all started with this column in the San Diego Tribune last weekend:


However, there's a catch:

Translation: Peavy and his agent will likely exploit this restriction to negotiate an even more handsome extension before agreeing to any trade. Obviously, hanging out with Greg Maddux for a couple of seasons has had an impact. Before he signed the extension, the Yankees and Padres were reported by Buster Olney to be discussing a Peavy for Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera deal. And in late '06, Ken Rosenthal reported that Towers said he wouldn't trade Peavy in any deal for Manny.

I agree with Cafardo that Peavy is right in Theo's wheelhouse. One obvious concern is his injury history: a strained elbow that cost him 3 weeks in May/June, and a shoulder that plagued him during 2006.

The name Buchholz comes immediately to mind. Then again, how much do you have to adjust Peavy's numbers for being in a huge pitcher's park in the NL West?

On the other hand, a rotation of Beckett-Peavy-Lester-Matsuzaka-Wake/Masterson/whoever is just sick.

I think given his flyball tendencies and a move to a weak division, Clay would have a lot of success there.

The Padres are in deep trouble right now. If they're seriously interested in moving Peavy, there's maybe 3 guys on that roster that I think you'd consider fixtures. While opes joked that you'd have to offer them 7 AA players, I do think to a degree they would be looking for quantity. The Santana deal made sense for the Twins because the Twins had a pretty good team, the Padres need a roster overhaul.

Year Age Team W L G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+ WHIP
2002 21 SDP 6 7 17 17 0 97.7 106 54 49 11 33 90 4.52 83 1.42
2003 22 SDP 12 11 32 32 0 194.7 173 94 89 33 82 156 4.11 96 1.31
2004 23 SDP 15 6 27 27 0 166.3 146 49 42 13 53 173 2.27 171 1.2
2005 24 SDP 13 7 30 30 3 203 162 70 65 18 50 216 2.88 134 1.04
2006 25 SDP 11 14 32 32 2 202.3 187 93 92 23 62 215 4.09 99 1.23
2007 26 SDP 19 6 34 34 0 223.3 169 67 63 13 68 240 2.54 159 1.06
2008 27 SDP 10 11 27 27 1 173.7 146 57 55 17 59 166 2.85 137 1.18


The formatting sucks, sorry. He also has a 3.29 ERA with 113 strikeouts in 120 Interleague innings. I've always loved him, There seems to be little evidence to suggust that he won't be able to make the AL transition.

That said, this thread is meaningless without some real ideas of what it would take to get him, which we don't have.

This thread is meaningless because Peavy has come out and said publicly that he would only accept a trade to a National League team, something I wasn't aware of before posting this.

Really? Can you link that? Thats very interesting. Sounds like mr. handlebars wants the easy way to Cy Youngs and HOF plaques.

In post #3 of this thread, mabrowndog quoted the article.

The deal starts with Buchholz and Anderson and goes from there.

Santana netted the Twins OF Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey.

While Gomez has game-changing speed and is a premier defender, Anderson is a (much) better hitter than Gomez, and Buchholz certainly has more of an upside than Humber. Guerra was decent in 2007, but had a brutal 2008. Mulvey is decent.

Plus, we also must take Peavy's remaining contract (which is a bargain) into consideration.

2009: $11 million
2010: $15 million
2011: $16 million
2012: $17 million
2013: $22M club option ($4M buyout)

The Sox would likely have to offer far more than the Twins got for Santana due to that contract. Something like Buchholz and Anderson, plus two more top-15 prospects.

Is it worth it?

AHHH. My mistake. I skipped over that article to fast. Do you think mabrowndog's theory might have some legs though? Peavy does have a NTC, so it was speculated that ANY trade would require some cost for him to wave that NTC, aka an extension. Could he be pre-negotiating, in the sense of- "Ok. I'll go to the AL, but its going to cost more than going to the NL."

Peavy's already getting a paycheck. He lives in San Diego. All in all, life isnt so bad for him at the moment. How could his situation improve? Maybe he thinks hes not paid enough, and is homesick. I don't know.

I don't think the issue will be money out of the Red Sox check book to sign an extension. The issue will be if we could put together an offer that beats other offers.

Arizona has dropped some big ones.
Connor Robertson + Dan Haren for six players: left-handers Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith; infielder Chris Carter; and outfielders Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez.

Granted they are no-namers to us, but for Haren/some schlub it took 4 mlb ready players, and 2 minor leaguers. Of that bunch, only Carter, and Anderson didnt play on the MLB club this year.

So if we want to talk any further about it, it would take gutting a good chunk of our farm system to get him. And we have had good success with the farm, so I imagine they will stick to that plan.

Source: http://www.northjersey.com/sports/yankees/30733234.html

In a word...No!

While I agree that Buchholz and Anderson would be a fair package for Peavy, the Sox are one of the few teams in baseball that shouldn't pull the trigger on that deal.

Why? Because they already have 3 frontline pitchers in Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka. Yes, Peavy might even head up that rotation, but to what end? With that kind of frontline, the Sox can afford to develop Masterson and Buchholz and still be pretty confident of making the playoffs.

Once you make the playoffs, Peavy makes Matsuzaka a really expensive fourth pitcher.

Right now, the Sox should be cultivating its next line of pitchers. They appear to have one with Lester and might have two more in Masterson and Buchholz. That's a pretty good spot to be in.

Now, if the Pads want to let him go for Anderson, Bard, and Hagadone...

Which is why Theo should hang up if Towers comes calling. I would never, ever take a risk on an NL West pitcher, let alone one which pitches half his games in Petco Park.

Home/away splits for his career:

ERA:
Home: 2.77
Away: 3.80

K/9:
Home: 9.52
Away: 8.32

BB/9:
Home: 2.59
Away: 3.27

HR/9:
Home: .62
Away: 1.25

OPS:
Home: .613
Away: 737

And these numbers are against the NL West. Put him against real lineups 1-9 in the AL East and I doubt he's much better than a mid-rotation pitcher. No way I give up a top 25 prospect for him AND a pitcher who will be good next year. This is such silliness.

I doubt Peavy's complaining about his present lifestyle, but I hope you're just being rhetorical about whether things could get better for him.

The issue with pro athletes at the top level of their game isn't one of comfort. It's about ego -- getting paid what you're worth, more than the next guy, and as much as possible.

For some, it's also about the spotlight. Not saying Peavy is the type of guy who'd immediately sign on with Dunkin' Donuts and Your New England Ford Dealers (as a certain Sox pitcher did in '03-04), but endorsement dollars and the exposure that comes with them are huge in markets like Boston and NYC.

For others, it's about playing for a winner. I don't care how long Peavy plays for the Padres, he'd only get a couple of chances at most to win a championship over the rest of his career.

Source: http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/200...s213243/?padres

Yes it was a rhetorical question. My point was I dont know what he values in his career. I cannot imagine or have any idea what its like to be at that level. I personally think Towers would want more than Buchholz + Lars. The numbers TempleUSox provides shows hes probably not worth that price, but I'm having trouble accepting it. I just must be drinking to much of the Peavy Koolaid.

Until then, I believe Temple is right, but I think Towers will try to sell it as, "OMG! HES DA BEST IN DA WORLDZ!!" Someone will bite. Christ there have been bigger trade blunders before.

Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?i...ce=MLBHeadlines

Does anyone here sign up for Buchholz, Bowden and Crisp?

What I can't understand is why SD would want to trade Peavy if he's under control through 2013. That's enough time to rebuild and he's the kind of guy you'd want to build around.

Nope. If the Sox want to add another premium starter so badly, they should just aggresively pursue one of the FA's. I liked Beckett over AJ burnett in similar circumstances a few years ago, but now I think I would look at Sabathia before throwing three good players at Peavy.

Burnett, Prior, Sheets ... all pretty good comps for Peavy (especially adjusting for parks) and all will probably be available as FAs. All are excellent when healthy, but all have a serious injury history and all are about the age when pitchers of their type go into decline. If one of this group were available at a reasonable price, I'd say go for it. Unfortunately, they won't be.

Agreed. I want no party of Peavy for that kind of package.

I don't know if this is what it will come down to, but I'd prefer Burnett at something like 3/55 over Sabathia at 6/130. I'm not really convinced that Burnett is a bigger health risk going forward, but CC has the workhorse label and will get the years accordingly whereas Burnett has the fragile stamp, somewhat unfairly given that he's actually pitched a lot of innings in the 4.5 years since coming back from Tommy John surgery.

From rotoworld

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3647795

The question comes down to value. It looks like Peavy has 5 years and 81 million left on his contract, assuming his 22 million dollar option is picked up in 2013. It's 4 years and 59 million if it's not. I would imagine that in order to accept a trade to the AL, he'd demand that option be picked up.

So, 5 years, 81 million for another potential ace in the rotation is a good price before you factor in the cost of the trade. If they're looking to two young impact pitchers, Buchholz is one of them. Bowden and Masterson are the only real options for the second. Coco or Ellsbury are the center fielders they're going to ask about. The best package they can get out of that is probably going to be Buchholz, Masterson and Ellsbury.

Add those three players to the 5 years and 81 million, then compare it to opening up the coffers for one of Sheets, Burnett or Sabathia. Sabathia is going to command a massive salary. He'll probably be the most expensive of the three and he's been absolutely abused the last 2 years. So I'd actually focus on either Sheets or Burnett. How much would they cost?

Well, considering the market, and my belief that Sabathia will sign for 6 years and 125-140 million, I can see those two getting 5 year deals for 100-115 million.

What's the better deal for the Sox? Buchholz, Bowden/Masterson and Crisp/Ellsbury + 5 years and 81 million for Peavy, or 5 years and 115 million for Burnett/Sheets?

Personally, that's not too tough for me to decide. I think the potential of the prospects is worth far more than the 34 million saved over 5 years (that's under 7 million a year).

I really like Peavy, but would rather see Theo focus on the free agents if he's going to make a big pitching move.

The advantage here is that if Cashman is pushing for a Peavy trade, Theo might be able to sneak in on one of Sheets or Burnett and get a deal done without having to go through a long term poker match with the Yankees. Not saying Cashman can't multitask, but if he thinks he's going to land Peavy (and if the Sox aren't in on him, he has a better chance) he might not push too hard on one or both of them.

Edit: Yes, this post is entirely speculative.

In a heartbeat.

Yeah, but rebuild with what? The Padres have a lousy ML team and not a whole lot in the minors. How do they get players to rebuild with in the next few years without a trade like this?

My only beef here is that you write off Sabathia because he's been abused the last couple of years (~250 IP). He's been around 200 innings since 2001. Sheets and Burnett have both had significant injury problems in their careers. Isn't Sabathia's durability a plus?

It's not just the abuse. It's the abuse plus that I believe he'll be significantly more expensive and get at least one more year. Both Burnett and Sheets have had injuries, but Sabathia has the kind of body that doesn't look like it will hold up as well as someone who is in shape. Yes, there are exceptions, but combining that with the abuse, the cost of signing him and the fact that he'll likely be the top target of other teams willing to spend, I like the idea of going after the other two from the onset.

Edit: Not surprisingly, he was second in the majors in PAP this year with 111844. Baseballprospectus.com is being really slow, but I'll update with his 2007 PAP as soon as the page loads.

I think the major issue with acquiring Peavy is that it likely requires the Red Sox to give up pieces they would like to use to acquire a catcher. It seems highly unlikely they can trade for Peavy and a catcher while keeping Anderson, who they need, and if it's an either/or, I think it's obvious they should get a catcher.

CC's better than Peavy, but signing any pitcher to a 6 or 7 year contract creates an enormous amount of risk, and this FO generally stays away from that level of risk. Peavy's already signed to a nice contract, and even if you sweeten the deal up a little, it's still a lot more palatable than what CC will get.

Ehh. I'm not completely sold on Peavy. He's had 3 postseason starts in his career (1 was technically a regular season game, the one against the Rockies in game 163 in 2007) and he got his ass kicked in all 3. I never heard anything about him being hurt in any of the 3 cases but he got his ass kicked all 3 times.

Okay, the numbers:
2005 NLDS vs. St. Louis, 4.1 IP, 8 hits, 8 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
2006 NLDS vs. St. Louis, 5.1 IP, 11 hits, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
2007 Game 163 vs Colo, 6.1 IP, 10 hits, 6 ER, 4 BB, 6 K

Wanna empty your farm system for that?

Back in May or June of 2007, the Sox went to SD for interleague and the way the rotations worked out he was up against Beckett. He was good but not empty your farm system for him good.

Has he had injuries? He started 27 games this season. And his rates started going in the wrong direction last year.

K/9 for Peavy
2005 9.58
2006 9.56
2007 9.67
2008 8.60

He lost 1 K per 9 last year over the previous three years.

And his BB/9 rate inched upward
BB/9 for Peavy
2005 2.22
2006 2.75
2007 2.74
2008 3.06

I agree about Burnett, but Sheets is another thing altogether. Burnett has thrown 180 IP a year since his TJ surgery and had considerable success in the toughest division in baseball. Sheets has been less durable, pitched in a crappier division and league, and currently has a torn muscle in his elbow or something. I want no part of Sheets, unless its on really short money.

This is fair. And Sheets over Sabathia is much tougher to justify. Never mind Sheets over Peavy. I think the point made about about using pieces to pick up a catcher is a very good one, though which makes me shy away from a trade even more.

When discussing Burnett, is there anything to be said about the fact that his 3 highest IP totals have come in the seasons preceding a salary increase? Or that he has significantly declined the following year?

2002: 204 IP
2003: First year of arbitration; gets $2.5M; TJ surgery and 23 innings following year

2005: 209 IP
2006: signs 5/$55 contract with Blue Jays; throws 135 IP through assorted injuries

2008: 221 IP
2009: opts out of contract, signs x/$yy, throws.....?

Maybe not the classic salary drive type player (he's put up nice numbers in even his off years), but is there any way he grits through injuries in pay years and they bite him in the ass the following season??

I just want nothing to do with Burnett. Or Sheets for that matter. I think it's a safe assumption that we will at least always have concern about Beckett's health. If we're spending money on another SP, I'd prefer a guy I can count on for 200+ IP.

If that means trading for Peavy, than so be it. Yes, I would rather take the risk in $$$, even huge on someone like CC, but I as long as we hold onto Lars, I'm OK with moving some prospects before they flame out. Not all of them are going to turn out like we hope.

He pitched with a broken rib in Oct. 2005.

So, Peavy has 5/81 left on his contract, a very substantial sum.

He pitches in the NL, which is generally agreed to be the inferior, easier league to have success in.

He pitches half his home games in the very best pitcher's park in all of baseball. Last year, his home ERA was 1.74; road was 4.28. He gave up 4 HRs in 98 IP at home; 13 HRs in 76 IP on the road.

For his career, his home ERA is 2.77 and his road ERA is 3.80.

As others have mentioned, his postseason resume stinks.

For all this, the Sox would be required to give up a very substantial package of prospects and young players.

I cannot see any way that making such a deal for Peavy makes a lick of sense. He appears to be a guy who benefits immensely from his home park and the league he plays in, plus he still would cost a very high sum in salary through 2013. I believe he would be an enormous bust in the AL.

I would much, much rather sign Sabathia, who may look like the Sta-Puft Marshmallow Man but who has had tremendous success in the American League, has been extremely durable throughout his career so far, and who wouldn't cost the Sox every halfway decent prospect in their system. And while Sabtahia's innings totals over the last 2 years are worrisome, there's absolutely no chance the Sox ride him as hard as the Indians and Brewers did lately; it's not their MO and they work in offdays for their pitchers to get them extra rest as needed.

As for Sheets, if he's still on the market in February or whatever maybe you throw a 1 year $2 million deal at him to see if he is healthy. Otherwise I stay far, far away from him if there's any type of competition for his services. He's a Ming vase.

Coming out to $16.2M/ yr, or less than DiceK makes when you include the posting payment.



True, but so did Beckett and Schilling. For that matter the Japanese leagues are even easier than the NL, and DiceK managed to adjust. Peavy has a 3.27 ERA in 120 innings of interleague play, so it's probably a bit disingeneous to take such a composite approach when looking at an individual player.



While I'm not going to suggest that he's not aided by his home park, I think you're glossing over some of the intricacies of park effects. Just eyeballing VORP for pitchers, he's been 13th this year, 1st in 2007, 11th in 2005, and 10th in 2004. He didn't drop below 50 VORP in any of those years, and his ERA+ was between 134 and 171. Even in his off year in 2006 he still managed to put up 39.2 VORP and a 99 ERA+, which statistically slaughters Beckett's 2006.

I would hope that the Sox are looking at things a lot more closely than that. As a RH power pitcher who would be able to force hitters to use the big part of Fenway, he probably stands a better chance of making the transition than others.



2 games. 3, if you count the play in game. One of those came in 2006 when he was hurt and had a terrible (by his standards) year. Do you really thing this is an actual argument?



I thought you were the guy who said he didn't trust young prospects? If we're going to be signing Teixeira, blocking Lars, and trading away Lowell, we're going to end up trying to get something for them anyway, and Peavy looks like one of the better talents available.

I think it's more reasonalbe to assume that the Sox will be looking to avoid the FA market as possible and will need their prospects to trade for a catcher. But their are a lot of players who might be redundant for the next few years who could be moved, and you don't know what Texas' demands are going to be.



While I agree that I would much rather sign CC, I don't think that's the issue. Staying in on Peavy is part of 'Plan B' if the Sox can't sign CC. The comparison that needs to be made is Peavy vs Burnett or Sheets.

I will happily trade young prospects all day long in exchange for elite, prime-of-their-careers talent. Teixeira last year fit that bill to me, as did Santana. Peavy doesn't look like that type of player IMHO; he looks like a guy who is a notch below those players, to me at least. Thus I wouldn't want to empty the farm system for a player of his caliber. The decline in his K rate this year is troublesome to me.

It may be a personal hangup, but I do not trust pitchers from SD to make smooth transitions elsewhere. They benefit so much from their home park that I wonder how they'll adjust once they never have any games in that park.



I'd take Burnett first, then Peavy, then Sheets if that's the case.

Why wouldn't you take Derek Lowe over any of those guys, given the likely prices involved?

Granted, I'm assuming Lowe will get less money than Sabathia and cost less than Peavy, but I think that's a solid assumption. I think he may well get less than Burnett, too.

Given that, and acknowledging that things have changed for him since he left here, wouldn't you think he's the best bet of those guys on a risk/performance/cost analysis? I would.

I'd probably rather take Sabathia even given his cost, but that's an excellent point PKB. Lowe's durable as all hell, and he'd be cheaper than Peavy or Sabathia. The real question, as you say, would be if he could keep himself pulled together if he came back to Boston again.

The only question is that he'll be 36 years old next June 1, and will likely ask for a 4 year deal this offseason. That's a bit of a risk to take given his age. But he's been exceptionally durable over the past 7 years or so.

There's a lot of background to unravel with Lowe....is he bitter about not being wanted after 2004, or will he recognize his situation is different now (both, according to reports, in terms of his off-field situation and personal habits)? I have no idea, but I'd sure try and find out. There have been reports he is not really interested in NY, which may or may not be the case and may or may not suggest continuing interest here....could simply be he likes the NL or the west coast.

The age is a biq question there; I have no idea what his comp list would look like. He doesn't have the K rate of Kevin Brown, and I'm not sure offhand who else is an extreme GBer to use. As a generalization I'm pretty sure that power pitchers age best as a group; I'm not sure that means they age better than outliers like Lowe, though. I'm sure in the offseason we'll be able to gather some good analysis of that.

Quick look at his comps...

Baseball Reference:

Similar Pitchers through Age 34

Compare Stats

1. Don Robinson (948)
2. Turk Farrell (931)
3. Bob Stanley (928)
4. Danny Darwin (926)
5. Phil Regan (925)
6. Stan Williams (923)
7. Dick Drago (920)
8. Dick Tidrow (916)
9. Dave Giusti (915)
10. Tom Gordon (911)

None off these guys are like him; few are even really established starters at that age. I don't really know why I check their comps, as great a site as it generally is.

Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA:

Rank Pitcher Year Score
1 Rick Reuschel 1984 54
2 Jerry Reuss 1984 48
3 Mike Morgan 1994 44
4 Gaylord Perry 1973 41
5 Mark Gubicza 1997 40
6 Andy Pettitte 2007 40
7 Larry Jackson 1966 38
8 Mike Torrez 1981 38
9 Orel Hershiser 1993 36
10 Kevin Gross 1996 34
11 Tommy John 1978 34

Seems more interesting, but not sure how good most of those are...a bunch of lefties, perhaps a reflection of low K rates but overall success (in his case, driven by something different than in theirs?) I really don't know what to make of it.

Tommy John is as good a comp as any, I suppose.

We can only wonder where Lowe's head is at these days, nor do we know what the FO thinks about him.

I'd be very interested in having him back, but in the Scot Shields role. No doubt Lowe would prefer to start.

Source: http://news.bostonherald.com/sports/baseba...position=recent

I'm mentioned before I like his numbers, and think he will do fine on the AL. I just dont think he will do fine in Fenway. The green monster is a magnet for Peavy Hr's. If Jake wants a shot at winning a ring, and playing in a huge NL park, The dodgers is the perfect place for him to go.
And regarding our recent transactions, we only deal away pissed off outfielders, 4th string OF's and a washouted flamerthrower from St. Johns, for an absolute stud.

If we wont give up Lester/Buch + Ellsbury for Santana, there is no way we send off Buchholz, Masterson and Ellsbury.

At this moment, our SP:

Lester
Beckett
DiceK
Wake
Masterson/Buchholz?

While we need a SP, we also need some offense. Preferably of the Catcher variety.

Here is a link of current FA's So people peruse the list and give suggestions for possible SP's

From that site:

A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season
Ryan Dempster (32)
Jon Garland (29)
Derek Lowe (36)
Mike Mussina (40)
Oliver Perez (27)
C.C. Sabathia (28)
Ben Sheets (30)

I think this is going to be similar to the Beckett era question that John Henry posed: Is it worth giving up the prospects required to acquire Jake Peavy (and his elbow) when the candidates above (and their warts) are available freely (from a talent perspective)? Clearly, Peavy would be near the top of that list talent-wise, but the names above are interesting and at fairly young ages in the case of Perez and Sabathia.

The other thing to consider is the possibility that Florida may sell off some of their arbitration eligibles:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/marlins/notes.htm



Josh Johnson is heading into his 2nd year displaced from TJ surgery, probably wouldn't be available because he won't command a hefty salary in arbitration, but he'd be an interesting guy to pry from Florida. Nolasco had a very good year, but I know nothing about him. Just pointing out that there may be some other under-the-radar options for obtaining additional candidates for the rotation etc. I know some folks here really like Hermida as well.

A.J. Burnett (32) - eats innings. hi K's 86 walks over 221in.
Ryan Dempster (32) Guy is a machine. Slightly better than Lester.
Jon Garland (29) - eats innings. K's not impressive. BB avg. huge WHIP. 5th starter
Derek Lowe (36) - had a great season. I bet he stays in LA.
Mike Mussina (40) - had a great season. I bet he stays in NY.
Oliver Perez (27) - horrible whip. 1.40. 180 K. eats innings like cheezy puffs.
C.C. Sabathia (28) - we all know about him.
Ben Sheets (30) - think Jon Lester, with fewer Walks. Not nearly as tough as Lester.

In your very good group, I like Dempster the best.

I'm curious what you mean by better. I'm not going to make any assumptions here but I will say that his 2008 seems to be an outlier, especially when you only look at seasons in which he's been a starter. When you add in the fact that he pitched in the NL, I'm not sure I'd buy the argument that he's better in any way except in K/9. And of course, the age difference is significant. Lester is at an age where it's reasonable to think he's coming into his own. Dempster is at an age where you don't normally see players getting better.

I'd be worried that he might fall back to earth a bit, especially if he moves to the AL. Out of the group you listed, only Burnett, Lowe and Mussina have pitched in the AL East successfully, and Burnett has been the best of those three in the last few years, so my money is on him. Sabathia loses points because I think he's going to be significantly more expensive than the rest. But from a pure talent point of view, he's the best option. I also think he's been abused to the point where it's reasonable to expect a breakdown once you take his conditioning into account.

I guess AJ Burnett is a guy who eats innings, when he actually pitches. He has only had over 29 starts in a year thrice (02, 05, 08). Signing him to a multiyear deal at 32 is probably terrifying every GM in the game right now.

All good points guys. I meant Dempster had a better year from my glance at his stats. But you are right about the age.
Wing- AJ you are spot on. I'm not for signing him.

Source: http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article...sp&c_id=hou

I for one would hate to see the organization give money to anyone on that list besides Burnett or Sabathia. Most of those guys I see as pitchers who survive against inferior competition, but who would get eaten alive pitching to Tampa, New York and Toronto 13 or 14 times a year. So yeah, if they want to add a starter and are willing to overpay for either of those guys, great, but if not, I think they should really be in on Peavy who I think is probably better than every pitcher besides CC on that list.