We're already discussing the Sox' alleged interest in Saltalamacchia. Acquiring him (or any other MLB-ready catching prospect) would most certainly alter the role of Jason Varitek -- assuming he decides to remain with the Sox and Boston decides to invite him back.

Here are the facts in evidence on Tek:

* He'll be 37 on opening day.
* He's in the midst of the worst offensive season of his career, with a .224/.314/.369/.683 line
* His platoon split is immense: .206/.298/.332/.631 as LHH, .289/.373/.500/.873 as RHH.
* Among MLB catchers with at least 250 PA, his 1.5 VORP ranks 24th out of 33.
* Among the same set of catchers, his 3.76 RC/27 ranks 25th.
* He's thrown out 16 of 69 runners (23.2%), ranking 24th among the aforementioned qualifiers.
* Take this for what it's worth: His 3.71 catcher's ERA is 4th best in the majors, trailing only Rod Barajas (3.32), Russell Martin (3.63) and Jeff Mathis (3.66).
* He's getting paid $10 million this year.
* He still employs Scott Boras as his agent.


And here's what we know about the rest of the league (ages are as of 5/1/09):

* So far this year, the MLB line for the catcher position is .256/.323/.389/.712; For AL catchers, it's .257/.320/.391/.711
* Of the 33 catchers who've logged at least 250 PA this season:
----- Four besides Varitek will be free agents: Pudge Rodriguez (37), Miguel Olivo (30), Gregg Zaun (38) and Paul Bako (36).
----- The Blue Jays hold a $2.5M option on Rod Barajas (33)
----- The top 14 in RC/27 are locked up by their teams through at least 2010.
* Other catchers eligible for free agency this off-season (*- club option for 2009, # - player was released and/or DFAd sometime this year):


DiFelice, Fick, Gonzalez and Mirabelli haven't played at any level this year, while Josh Paul hasn't played in the majors this season.

Wilson had Tommy John surgery in June for the second time, and his career might be over. Barrett has been sidelined since breaking his own face with a foul ball July 3. Bennett has missed most of the season with plantar fascitis and struggled with his throwing early in the year.

* The contracts handed out to Posada ($52.4M/4 yrs) and Johjima ($24M ext/3 yrs) will be used by conservative GMs as Exhibits A and B of why not to spend gobs of money on aging catchers.
* As arguably the two best catchers in baseball, the deals signed this spring by Mauer $33M/4 yrs) and McCann ($26.8M/6 yrs) will be the high-end reference points for their position.


Here's what we don't know:

* How agreeable is Tek to a part-time/platoon role?
* Is he willing/able to play some first base with an NL team, and will it enhance his value?
* Is he willing to leave a winning environment to play for a non-contender?
* How much further does his offense need to erode before he's considered "replacement level" by the market?
* What dollar value would other teams place on his knowledge base and veteran leadership?
* If he agrees to catch part-time, how much will it take for the Sox to sign him?
* How much bluster will we have to endure from Boras and his PR machine trying to put lipstick on a pig?

At this point, it's difficult to see much of a market existing for Jason beyond Boston, but here are some possibilities (in order of likelihood IMO):

DODGERS - Russell Martin, a righty, actually has a reverse platoon split so it would make sense for Tek to play against LHPs. They're certainly not married to nomadic veteran Gary Bennett as the backup. And since Frank McCourt has such a fetish for collecting Sox players, would anyone be shocked if Jason wound up out here?

BRAVES - Will Tek return to his home state? They dumped Corky Miller in lieu of Clint Sammons (25) as the backup, but Sammons hasn't impressed (.163/.234/.233 in 19G). Since McCann bats lefty, Jason would be the ideal platoon partner. But times have changed here since Ted Turner sold the club. AOL/Time Warner squeezes the nickel til the buffalo shits, so there's no way Boras will extort anything more than a modest paycheck for his client here.

METS - After putting up .285/.331/.556/.887 numbers over 52 games in 2007, Ramon Castro (33) has reverted to his 2005-06 form (.242/.312/.453/.765). Too bad he flummoxed the Mets into signing him to a new 2-year deal that pays him $2.5M next season. This is similar to the Atlanta situation, with starter Brian Schneider a lefty hitter. The difference is the Mets have slightly deeper pockets and they're not afraid to make a big splash. So if they manage to move Castro elsewhere this offseason, might we see one of the best batteries in MLB history reunited?

RAYS - Splits for the switch-hitting Navarro aren't as pronounced as Varitek's, but he's still been much better as a lefty vs RHP (.312/.365/.415/.779) than as a righty (.245/.308/.378/.686). Curiously, he's hit righty vs RHPs 6 times (1 single, 1 K), but I digress. The bottom line is Tek would be a much better option to share time and help pilot a young team than Shawn Riggans (.222/.287/.407/.694), who just went down with minor knee surgery for an infection.

REDS - OK, hear me out. We all know how much Dusty loves grizzled vets, right? I mean, why else would they have dumped Ross (.381 OBP) and gone with Paul fucking Bako ahead of Javier Valentin? And don't give me any of that "Ross had a bad back" crap. You just don't unceremoniously dump 31-year-old catchers who draw walks, extend pitch counts, and homer 26.8 times per 500 ABs. Anyway, the switch-hitting Valentin's about to turn 33 and, though it's nothing to brag about, has a .258/.312/.422/.734 line as a LHH. So with Bako about to hit the market, Tek's production from the right side would fit in, as would his ability to work with a young staff that could use some guidance.

MARINERS - Before going down with a knee injury last week, LHH Jeff Clement (25) had wrested the starting gig from the overpaid Johjima. It's exceedingly unlikely that this would happen, but if the Mariners can somehow swing a trade to dump Kenji and eat most of the $24M on that moronic 3-year extension they signed him to in April, then Varitek makes sense on paper. Thing is, I can't envision any team that would be a willing party to their idiocy.

BLUE JAYS - It won't happen if they pick up the option on Barajas, but they're already losing Zaun for sure.

YANKEES - This one's admittedly a complete reach -- it would be more of an "Eff you Boston!" signing by NY, not something that would add any real value to an already aging club.

Excellent work, Mark. A couple of quick notes: Pedro is a FA, so even if Varitek signed there, they might not be reunited. Also, the Mariners catcher is Jeff Clement, not Mathis. I know you dont ever want to type "Clement" again on this message board, but sometimes we have to .... for Jeff's sake.

Thanks for catching the Mathis gaffe, Neil. The Angels are weighing on my mind of late.

I also lost sight of Pedro's contract status, so that's a great point. I still think Tek makes sense for the Mets if they can do something with Castro.

Outstanding, informative post to which I can only add my feelings: It is time to let Tek go. I love the man but hate the ballplayer he has become. He is way overpaid and Boras intends to keep it that way. He will likely find a taker somewhere on that list for, oh, $7M * 3 years. Is he worth it? No way, not even to the Sox. Keep Ross for half the money and develop the players down on the farm. Throw the savings into the pot that will help bring in a big bat or a big arm.

Great post. I'm inclined to say that we're better off keeping both Varitek and Ross, as I'd be interested to see how a platoon with those two would shake out. Of course, Varitek would likely start against righties, which would be an unmitigated disaster much like this season. A 2/12 deal for Varitek would not be the end of the world, if you ask me, especially with a capable backup (read: though Cash has done well, he won't hit above a .600 OPS likely ever again) to give Tek 2-3 days off a week and maybe a handful of starts at 1st.

I'd also like to see if Texas would be willing to part ways with Gerald Laird as opposed to their big three of prospects, as I believe Laird could be had for something like Delcarmen and Middlebrooks as opposed to giving up on Buchholz, which seems to be the majority opinion on the board.

Amazing post mabrowndog, very great information and even better analysis.

I don't think there is any question that Varitek has become an aging catcher with unquestionably diminishing hitting skills. I know this has been beaten to death and can't really be quantified but it seems that there isn't a more prepared backstop in the league, and he has a great game plan for his pitchers each and every day. In an ideal world he would stick around but it is looking more and more like he can't play everyday. With Boras as his agent it is highly unlikely that he would re-sign to hit lefties and the occasional righty but he has always been a team first guy that wanted to stay in Boston, but then again that was when there was a guaranteed starting job, captaincy, and $40 million.

He's been overpaid (IMO for the entirety of the contract) for at least two seasons now, didn't put up anything near a Posada-like contract year that would warrant giving him anything more than chump change, he'll be 37 at the beginning of the year as mabrowndog alluded to, and at this point in his career doesn't deserve to be a starting catcher in this league by any stretch of the imagination.

With that said, am I the only one that would be disappointed if Varitek didn't take a fair market value deal with the Sox even if he's able to get something more lucrative somewhere else given Boras' negotiating abilities?

Also, very informative post. Well done.

A great post, Mark.

Two key points in there that I see that no one else is mentioning in the rush to pile on Tek.
First, .683 -- Tek's OPS this year and the worst of his career.
Second, .711 -- The AL average OPS for the position.
There's not much better out there anywhere at the bat, and nothing better that is readily available.

Meanwhile, in an SI poll of MLB players a few weeks back, Varitek was named the 4th best all-round catcher in all of baseball. Now I know that thsoe sort of polls often have all sorts of bias, but you would have to think that MLB players are going to have a better understanding of all the things, tangible and intangible, that go into playing catcher than even the esteemed posters here at SOSH. Before anyone makes Jeter Intangible jokes, I do firmly believe that a catcher has a legitimate claim to intangibles/unmeasurables, primarily through his work with pitchers.

I think we see Varitek back next season with the Red Sox, probably with some sort of 2 year deal for around $12 million with an option year attached.

If the Sox can find a second catcher who is worthy of more than 35 starts per year, or if the Sox can snuff out the other balack holes that have arisen at times this year in the lineup, I think Varitek will be a perfectly acceptable #9 hitter even with the line he put up this year. With so many cost-controlled players in the lineup and on the roster now, the Sox can easily afford a .224/.314/.369/.683 catcher with Tek's ... unmeasurables.

When I think of Varitek and the particulars of performance, alternative options, and all the rest I guess I keep coming back to one word: irrelevant.

He is an institution here. The captain. Beloved by the players, the pitchers, the fans, management. And he has a hardass agent.

That all adds up to Boston retaining him no questions asked and paying what Boras determines to be the market rate, probably with a little "hometown discount" -- in Boras speak that means he is inflating the original number and is willing to come down from it knowing it's too high.

While it depends what Varitek himself wants, I think that this is a 2/8 - 2/10 deal. That per. Maybe he only wants 1yr + option as he is a late-30s catcher and might not want a longer commitment.

Or not. It's just hard for me to see him going anywhere.

Edit -- And as a side note, the irrelevant was not meant to take away from the great post. Thanks, appreciate the write up.

As for where he goes, I think Gammo has already been pimping the idea that McCourt will sign Tek, and shift Martin to 3B. It doesn't make much sense to me, but there you go.

To combine what has been brought up in the Salty thread with Yecul's post, I think the Sox will actively try to acquire one of Texas' C prospects, but will still keep Tek around for one more contract as a mentor/ 2 games a week player.

To me this is a terrific idea. There is no better catcher in the game when it comes to prep, knowing both his own pitchers and other hitters tendencies. Very good person to have as a mentor to a young catcher.

Tek's divorce should be mentioned as I believe it means he's gone to the highest bidder. Unfortunate, but it's his last payday and why not grab it.

If Tek had the lifestyle of MC Hammer, with lavish mansions and classic car collections, then perhaps maximizing income to prevent a divorce settlement from draining his wallet might become necessary. Then again, there's the "I'll just take a pay cut so the bitch gets less of my dough" mantra that some vengeful types adhere to.

None of us know how he spends his money, though based on the persona he projects I'd be willing to bet he trends conservative. Yes, he'll likely have to split assets and income down the middle, as many couples do when marriage fails, but he's already raked in around $47 million over his career so I suspect he'll still be able to maintain the comforts of his lifestyle at $3M-$5M a year over the next two or three seasons.

That's one reason I don't think he'll blindly sign with the highest bidder. Another reason is that I don't expect the disparities between the top three bidding parties to be substantial enough to make a real difference. I believe he'll still be able to choose which team and city best suits him without sacrificing more than $200,000-$300,000 a year. Not that it's chump change, but all things are relative.

At this point its just about a given that Tek's offensive contributions peaked sometime ago, and going forward will likely be marginal. However as a defensive catcher and as mentor to still relatively young pitching staff his value seems reasonably high.

The questions are:

Q-Can the Sox win with an offensive black-hole hitting in the 7-8 spot?

A-I think they can, although another bat might have to be acquired

Q-Should the Sox gamble that the absence of the mentor/preparation aspect of Tek's game will have an adverse impact on the staff?

A-Given the obvious lack of a replacement, and the reviews he gets from his staff and teammates, IMO its not worth the gamble.

Q-How deep is the market for a light-hitting 37 year-old catcher?

A-IMO there are not many deep-pocket teams, willing to do a 3/30 and also with young pitchers who could benefit from the Tek's knowledge/leadership.

Although after this disappointing year, maybe the Tigers might value Tek's mentoring and leadership values, and make a run at him.

IMO its unlikely that Boras/Tek would sign anything less than 3 year deal, so,...

While its not my money, if the Sox can do a 3 year $10M per deal (IMO a paycut at this point would likely be viewed as insulting to the team captain and not the way to go-he's not Damon, he's more like Mike Lowell) and in then try to trade for and or develop the backstop for the future with Tek in-house.

The Tigers have a situation that's somewhat similar to Seattle's. While the M's are stuck with Johjima, Detroit owes Brandon Inge and his .214/.311/.385 line nearly $13M over the next two seasons. They've really got nowhere else to put him, which is why he wound up as Pudge's backup this season and then took over as the starter once they traded him. While Detroit's staff is an ideal candidate for Tek's tutelage to help right the ship, I'm not convinced they'd go in that direction in spite of their demonstrated spending propensity.

While Inge is having a crappy year, his contract is probably not so onerous, to make him unmovable. He could be a good role player 3rd/C for somebody. I could see Boras pitching Tek to the Tigers.

Regarding the Braves. Liberty Media owns them now. While they have said that payroll will increase this year, Bobby Cox has also stated that the Braves are going to go after 2 top of the line starting pitchers. and they have other needs for position players. Unless the payroll increases dramatically, and I realize that they do have money coming off the books, I don't see them going after Tek.
Regarding the home state of Georgia. The soon to be ex is from here. Unless he chooses to live here to be close to the kids in the off-season, I really can't see much of a reason for him to feel the pull of Georgia since he didn't grow up here.

I know nothing about his situation, and don't expect the Sox to be doing anything different... but don't underestimate the value of a person being in close proximity to their children. It isn't just the offseason... it could mean seeing them during homestands, etc.

Regardless of what is known about his circumstances, and assumptions people make, going through this situation could have been a large contribution to his performance this year - or not (way to take a stand, eh?). So personally I'd tread lightly with the 'stick a fork in him' talk as well. It could be with some resolution/closure with respect to his personal life that he has some sort of rebound offensively as well.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out though... I hope it is done with him personally and behind close doors. Varitek has already shown he is willing to make a point if he feels he isn't being treated/negotiated with fairly. However it happens, IMHO it is in the Sox best interest to not be adversarial with him... even if they end up losing him.

1. Two years, $18M total, $12M the first season, $6M the second, with a team option year at $5M. The first year should be the heavier year, dollar-wise, as any "young" catcher also acquired this off-season will (most likely) be making the minimum. Yes, $12M next season is overpaying for projected performance, but it's really a reward for past service and for accepting the "new" role of mentor and eventual backup.

2. I do not think Varitek is likely to go anywhere else, as he seems likely to understand that his best days are behind him, baseball-wise. He has a legacy and profile in Boston and if he stays a "one-team player" he'll garner some post-career love from purists and romantics - maybe even some misguided HOF support. Not to mention his most likely avenue to post-career endorsement or media work is in Boston. If he's a baseball lifer, and wants to coach and/or manage, he'll see his best opportunities with Boston. When Varitek basically told Boras to work things out with Boston in 2004 because this is where he wanted to play, he chose a direction for his future and nothing - other than a few more $ in his next (sunset) deal - can really improve on his decision. He can stay with a winning franchise, maybe get his number retired, do a couple "Window Boys!" commercials with Johnny Pesky, and lend his name to baseball camps.

Of the few Sox to be on both the 04 and 07 teams and are still in a Red Sox uniform, only Ortiz has a higher Q rating in Boston. The "Captain" has a pretty clear path to post-career financial success in Boston.

3. I happen to believe in cERA and the "intangibles" a catcher provides to a pitching staff and team. And I happen to believe Varitek is one of the top 5 in baseball at calling games, preparing game-plans and on-field leadership. Next season, he'll probably play 90 games and the "new" backup 70. And in 10, Varitek will play 50 and the new guy 110. And it'll help the team to pay Varitek $18M over those two years, not just from on-field performance, but from the other stuff like preparation and mentoring a young catcher (and the young pitchers). I'd prefer if Varitek hit like he did in his prime, but that Varitek is gone. This one, played heavily against LHP, could still put up good enough numbers so that the complaining won't be too loud. But even if he hits .200/.280/.380 over those 90 games next year, he's still worth the $ because of the other stuff he brings to the table.

I dissent from the SoSH conventional wisdom in two respects.

1. According to BP, Tek has been 3.5 wins better than replacement level this year, with nearly all that value coming on defense. Throw in Tek's intangibles and the lack of other FA options, and there will be a robust market for his services this winter.

2. Prior to this season, Tek had a career OPS of 827 against LHP, and 784 against RHP. Absent a concrete reason to believe otherwise, I'd expect that 40-45 point spread to reassert itself in 2009.

If Tek reverts to his career platoon splits, that's a mixed blessing. On one hand, if he ends up being the Sox' everyday catcher next season, he should hit righties better than he has this season. On the other hand, he's unlikely to continue hammering lefties, so if his offense is too poor for him to remain an everyday player, he's unlikely to be terribly useful as a platoon player.

I think the Sox should offer Varitek on a 1-year deal with a club option. I'm thinking $10mm for 2009, and a $12mm option for 2010 with a $2mm buyout. (Believe it or not, $12mm is slightly less than the going rate for a player who's 3 wins above replacement level.) If Tek prefers a 2-year deal for less AAV, that should be evaluated on the merits, under the assumption that he'll be no more than a backup catcher by 2010. If someone offers him 3 guaranteed years, we should thank Tek for all he's done for us and bid him farewell.

If the Sox truly are intrigued and want to get Saltalamacchia, I think Varitek is almost a no-brainer unless his financial demands are completely out of line. His ability to mentor, hit LHP (I don't think he'll re-gain his ability to hit RHP but I have a lot of confidence that a 830 or so OPS is a baseline), and just be a transitional bridge is worth quite a bit. What the number is can be debated after the season, but on the surface, I think this makes a ton of sense. The two worst seasons we've had this decade were when Varitek was out of action and I think turning things over entirely without some kind of smooth transition is a risk. I don't buy the intagibles stuff without qualification but I think a 2-year position with possibly a bench coach gig later would make sense.

He can play a ton of positions. He started the season as the starting CF this year while Granderson was healing. He can play LF anf RF. He has spent plenty of time at 3B where is has a decent glove and has played some 1st base. He's definitely a super utility kind of guy that gives you a lot of roster flexibility. Problem is his bat went from decent to complete crap this season.

The market for Tek will be much higher than $6 or $8 million per year. I'd say the Sox will eventually sign him for two years at $10M per year. At the same time, they'll trade Buchholz, Bowden or Masterson for an up and coming catcher, with the idea that Tek will split time 60/40 with the young guy (Tek gets the 60, including most starts against LHP and no Wake), while mentoring him along. The Sox will sell it to him as "player-coach" status, which they'll need to do because other teams will offer him more.

I think we on SoSH tend to undervalue Tek. Everyone else overvalues him.

The offseason market may have just gotten a little worse for Tek, and a little better for the Sox..

http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/articl...jsp&c_id=sd



Bard fits the bill as one of those post-hype catchers with some potential to rebound.

Great post, Mabrowndog.

My inner 8-year-old would desperately love to see Varitek retire with the Red Sox. But I do not want to watch him drag down team performance for the next few years, which i think is happening before our eyes.

The multimillion-dollar question is whether intangibles/leadership/game-calling has real value in the W-L column, and if so, how much? I (and I think most people) would be willing to give Tek the benefit of the doubt in those respects and say he's as good as anyone in the game at handling a pitching staff and so on, but how many wins does that really add? People who buy into the intangibles bit like to say those things are immeasurable, you can't put a price tag on leadership, the pitchers love working with him, etc, but seriously, how much worse would the pitchers be with a generic catcher? Even if we cannot measure those things precisely, there has to be a starting point or a guesstimate somewhere.

The only possible performance-related justification for giving Tek the kind of contract he will be looking for is the intangibles bit. Which I would really like to be convinced of, but currently feel is a sort of flimsy rationale for keeping favorite players past their sell-by date. The difficult flipside to this whole thing is that there is certain to be at least one team who *does* value the veteran, intangible, "knowing how to win" stuff, and I think it is extremely unlikely that Varitek will have any logical reason to settle for a modest part-time contract. I think the Red Sox will be put to an actual decision on this one, and that the cheap 2-year platoon/bench coach/semi-retirement role that we would love to see is wishful thinking.

The other issue here is that there is at least some reason to think that his performance is at least partially a result of his divorce. Theoretically, if he gets all that stuff taken care of in the off-season, perhaps some of his offense would return. I'm not saying I believe that, but I'm guessing Tek might. Ideally, he'd take a one year deal with a low guarantee and incentives that would kick in an extra year if he plays "x" number of games, but that's likely wishful thinking as there's surely a team out there willing to take a chance on him and his leadership. Perhaps he'll instruct Boras to only negotiate with the Sox again (although I doubt that ever truly happened before).

Why is the divorce only affecting how he hits from the left side? Is divorce worry located entirely on the right part of his brain?

Once again Tim Wakefield needs to be discussed here. Any non-Tek catcher, backup or protege', needs to be able to catch Wakefield if he returns. Can Salty, Teagarden, or whoever do that? On one hand The FO must love Wakefield's production compared to cost. On the other hand his need of specialized treatement in another roster spot must drive them nuts. For a team that strives for roster flexibility Wake's success and willingness to play must cramp their style.

He can't hit. He can't throw. He will be 37 years old in April.

He's now a backup at best IMO.

Isn't catching the knuckler a learned skill? Did Cash or Mirabelli have knuckler catching skills before they came to the Sox or was that a skill they picked up? If it's a learned skill then I would think that a catcher that is reasonably sound defensively would be able to pick up that skill.

There may be some reason to think his divorce is a factor in his overall performance, at least from Tek's point of view. I didn't say I believed it. Just guessing that Tek and Boras will use this as an excuse to brush aside at least some portion of his crappy year.

Re: the splits, I don't put that much stock into what he's done from the right side. Because of the small sample size each year, it can fluctuate a lot. Tek's OPS over the past 4 years, from the RH side, is 1000, 698, 801, and 873.

Would you look at the past three years and think he's improving from the RH side and should only bat righty? Or is just normal fluctuation? I'd go with the latter.

The data from the left side is a lot more stable since it makes up 70% of his AB's. An injury or some kind of other disruption, like a divorce, could affect a players overall performance but not every single split. Or, there may be some reason to think he's cooked because he can no longer hit from the left side. I'm not sure we have the answer yet, although I certainly agree with you that the latter is more likely, just doubting that Tek and his agent think his days as a starter are over.

Well, my point is more that the divorce issue should be a non-starter because...
1. He's still hitting well from the right side
2. He's a 37 year old catcher. They age about as well as 37 year old running backs or 37 year old porn stars.

I would bet good money that Tek's issues are completely physical, since he's dropped off behind the plate too. Getting into psychological assessments of players is just not very compelling.

For comparisons sake the free agent catchers that signed major league contracts last off-season.

Name Age Years Salary AAV
Posada 37 4 $52.40 $13.10
Lo Duca 36 1 $5.00
Kendall 34 1 $4.25
Torrealba 30 2 $7.25 $3.63
Barrett 31 1 $3.50
Jo. Molina 33 2 $4.00 $2.00
Estrada 32 1 $1.25
Barajas 33 1 $1.20
Bennett 36 1 $0.88
LaRue 34 1 $0.85
Mirabelli 37 1 $0.55

Based on age/performance I don't think there is a case for Varitek as a $10M player, to me based on his solid game calling and special status as captain gets a bit of a premium and ends up between $6-8M AAV for 2 years.

In my plan, Varitek catches Wakefield and it's not like he didn't catch him 30-40 times already anyway. You don't give that job to a young guy.

Varitek CAN hit, and can add value but just not as a 120-game everyday catcher. But, that said, on a FMV basis he'll still command an average value of $10 per year. Maybe just ear-mark the Schilling dollars each year in this way to always have a veteran who might not be the best straight accounting use of funds but adds some stability, and unlike Schilling, we'll get him to actually be able to perform 2 times a week next year.

I agree with Felix M. I'm puzzled at people talking as if there will be a huge market for Varitek and the Sox will have to go multiple years/double digit millions on him. I've always been a big Tek fan, and I understand the sentiment in his favor, but neither the fans nor the management of any other team has any reason to share that sentiment. Here, he's 'the Captain'; everywhere else, he's just a 37-year-old veteran with a good reputation as a batterymate but a mediocre arm and a rapidly declining bat, especially against RHP. As such, I'd be surprised to see him pull down more than about 2 years/$10M from anybody but the Sox.

Even 2 years $10m is a lot to pay for a backup, but might be sentimentally worth it, assuming Tek is even willing to be a backup.

More to the point though, I think it's a lot to assume that the rest of baseball thinks of Tek as washed-up. He is a 3-time All Star, including this year(!), and has superstar "aura" and proven big-game status and all that. Whether these count for anything in reality is a separate matter, but the question of what *will* happen is always a separate one from what *ought to* happen when it comes to name-brand baseball player contract negotiations. Rationality has never ruled the market up to this point, and I know of know reason to expect it to do so now.

Moreover, catchers are in excruciatingly short supply, and the available ones are mostly old and not that much better options than Varitek.

The fact that Tek's lackluster performance is not that much worse than most catchers is, I think, all the more reason to go hard after a good, younger catcher. Getting offense out of that spot in the lineup is an automatic advantage over most teams in the league, and a bigger W-L improvement than you'll usually get by upgrading a regular to a superstar at much greater cost elsewhere in the lineup. When your team is able to make full use of all 27 outs but the other team cannot, you have immediate leverage over them, similar to a lights-out closer. Not making outs is the most important part of hitting, and "automatic outs" not only give the team fewer chances to win, but can cripple entire innings, especially since the worst hitters are generally surrounded by other weak hitters who are more dependent on stringing together hits and "manufacturing" runs.

I hope that nobody else offers him much, and that the Sox can get him as a backup/platoon player, mostly because I'd like to see him retire with the Sox. We'll see.

Yes, the FA pool of catchers looks awful, but most of those guys were backups or unemployed this year; with a few exceptions, their free agency isn't going to create a hole at the starting C spot on anybody's roster. So if Tek wants a starting job, those aren't the guys he's competing with. He's going to have to convince some team that it's worth signing him to replace their current, cost-controlled or under-contract starter. And I don't see very many probable matchups there. Who is really likely to compete with the Sox to sign him? Who has $ to spend and a hole at C?

Here's a quick list:

Detroit
Chisox
Toronto
NY Mets
Philadelphia
Milwaukee
Houston

I'm not saying all these teams should be in the hunt for Jason Varitek-- for example, I think Houston should give J.R. Towles a real chance, and the Tigers and Jays should stick with in-house options (Inge and Barajas, respectively) and spend their money on other needs. But hey, they don't call me for advice.

I do expect one of these teams will be sufficiently enthralled with Tek's defense and intangibles to offer him 2/20.

Rather than looking at the available catchers (which admittedly looks like dreck) why wouldn't we look at who the current teams have and would potentially be looking to upgrade from? I'll put a list here later if someone doesn't beat me to it (working now) but I can't think of a single team right now that Tek would be a realistic fit for outside of the Mets or Dodgers as mentioned above.

If only I'd addressed this in my opening post.

Oh wait...

You obviously put a lot of thought into that post. Thank you.

Did you have particular reasons for not including the Phillies, Brewers and White Sox on your list of possible destinations?

Edit: I'm aware that on paper, Pierzynski is better than Varitek. But P'ski has a reputation for being a prick, and his performance has deteriorated to the point where the Chisox might decide he's not worth tolerating anymore.

AJ may be a douche, but he's still a relatively productive douche. His 4.54 RC/27 and 15.9 VORP both rank 12th in the majors among catchers with at least 250 PA this season. That puts him in the top third. He's also just 31 years old. Besides, if he were really that big a pain in the ass, would Chicago have signed him at the end of the '07 season to a 2-year/$12.5M extension that locks him up through 2010?

Brewers fans might have been privately hoping to rid themselves of Jason Kendall, but his $4.25M option for 2009 vested when he started his 110th game a few weeks ago. It seems like he should be 44, but he's actually 10 years younger than that. He's provided veteran leadership for that pitching staff that's 3rd in the NL in ERA (3.90), he's thrown out 39 of 90 base stealers (43%) and his production's been better than Tek's, with his 4.09 RC/27 and 1.7 VORP ranking 21st and 23rd respectively. Remember, he's an NL guy and RC/27 isn't corrected for park effects or the lack of a DH.

In Philly. Chris Coste ranks 9th in RC/27 (4.80) and 16th in VORP (9.4). Despite his age (36) he remains cost-controlled through 2012. His backup, 30-year-old Carlos Ruiz, is far worse -- ranking 28th in RC/27 (3.23) and 29th in VORP (-3.0), but also remains cheap through 2012. Both bat righty, eliminating any platoon benefits Tek might otherwise provide. With their 3.90 team ERA ranking 4th in the NL, I just don't see them having any incentive to shell out cash for Jason.

Got a PM from lurker Grin&MartyBarret (sic):


Well, there's no such rule that I'm aware of. Regardless, I'm not sure how such a role benefits either party. So long as he's a player, not to mention team captain, he can still be a mentor.

I'm also not sure if/how a player/coach designation would affect the number of coaches the Sox are allowed to have in the dugout during games. This is what the Orioles made such a big stink about, forcing the Sox to tell Pesky he'd have to head into the clubhouse or sit in the stands once the game started.

The bigger issue is psychological. I don't think Tek believes he's ready to be called a coach. Once you slap that tag onto a guy, it implies irreversible age and inability. Pro athletes don't need that hit to their ego and confidence. As Tito said on 60 Minutes' Bill James segment, he needs his players to feel like they're indestructible. Sure, the writing's on the wall in big block letters to you and me, but ballplayers don't think that way until they wake up and feel differently or someone in their circle tells them they're done.

Sorry, I should have been clearer. I was asking if there were teams that would want Tek as their #1 catcher, which is the only circumstance in which I can imagine a team paying him the kind of money some people have been talking about (2+ years @$10M). It seemed to me (and still does after a second reading) that your scenarios mostly involved teams signing him as a platoon guy. Of course if he's willing to accept a backup/platoon role, and the kind of money that goes with that role, I would expect lots of teams to be interested.

[Varitek]They're good,[/Varitek] David Ortiz said. [Varitek]They whoop your ass. That's what they've been doing all year, with everybody. Home, those close games, they fight. Can't take nothing for granted when you play those guys.[/Varitek]

Yeah I agree with Hillbilly -- a lot depends on Varitek's attitude going forward. I wonder if he's at the Kevin Millar-esque stage of his career, where he'd be willing to take peanuts as long as it meant a role with the team next year.

If he thinks he still deserves 350+ ABs next season, I can't really imagine the Sox agreeing to that. If he's willing to accept 150+ ABs at a reasonable price, I don't see why he'd rather get those at bats in LA or Cincy than in Boston.

Ahhh. Clarity helps. Actually, I agree with you for the most part.

I'm thinking the Dodgers and Mets would pay the figure you cited to have Tek platoon/backup. Add the Yankees if Hank throws a hissy and plays the spite card. Otherwise the only teams I could see courting Tek as a starter are Toronto (if they bid Barajas adieu) and the Mariners (if they move Johjima), but neither will shell out wads of Boras Bucks.

Nothing new, but I found this quote interesting from Projo:

"I can’t say that," Varitek said recently when asked if he'd like to end his career as a member of the Red Sox. "I don’t know. I really don’t."

Translation:

"$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$"

Admit it. You got that from the Scott Boras Enhanced Leverage Training Manual.

"I can’t say that," Bowlerman9 said recently when asked if he was taking advice from Scott Boras. "I don’t know. I really don’t."