Baseball America has started doing their league by league Top 20 Prospects. The Sox related dates are below...

Gulf Coast League - Sept. 16
New York-Penn League - Sept. 19
South Atlantic League - Sept. 24
California League - Sept. 25
Eastern League - Sept. 30
International League - Oct. 3

GCL:

5. Michael Almanzar, 3b, Red Sox
6. Casey Kelly, ss/rhp, Red Sox
19. Derrik Gibson, 3b, Red Sox

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...008/266858.html

Almanzar a touch below expectations? I didn't pay much attention to the rest of the league, but given his performance and quick promotion would have thought that would have been enough to get him into the top 3 behind Hicks and Skipworth.

Marte and especially Knapp are suprises (to me anyway). And jesus, did the Mets have a great 2007 international class or what with Marte at 550k and Wilmer Flores at (I think) 750k.

I'd also say that Almanzar's brief scouting report is a bit disappointing especially in comparison to Marte's.

Marte:

"and seems to only have scratched the surface of his capabilities", "has huge projection", "He is going to have some real power."

Almanzar:

"has a sound swing with above-average bat speed and raw power", "He's a below-average runner but has good instincts on the basepaths"

These are just scraps of scouting reports, but Marte is clearly getting all of the hyped up ceiling buzz words while Alamnzar is settling for "above average". Except where he's already below average as a runner, so fwiw he's not going to get that elusisve "5 tool buzz".

More distressingly is this: "Almanzar currently plays third base but may move to first base in the future. He has the hands and arm strength to play the hot corner but needs to improve his foot speed and quickness in order to make routine plays on a consistent basis."

If he's going to end up a 1B, then the bat really, really needs to play up.

Honestly the more I think about it this is a pretty downbeat report. For 1.5M shouldn't you have bought enough athleticism to play a position that requires some defensive skill (preferably up the middle, but 3B is adequate) or have some serious Villalona/Montero style raw power?

Philly, I don't know if you've had a chance to see Almanzar at all. I've seen him a few times in Greenville. I think the BA folks are mistaking athleticism (or lack thereof) for youthful awkwardness. He has plenty of athleticism. Any one who has seen him field on gut-react plays, or naturally sit on a ball and drive it (and I mean pound it) the other way, will tell you he has athletic gifts. The trouble is that it is masked by an ungainly way of moving around. It's more like he hasn't mastered how his body works yet. He has enough "speed," for instance, but the mechanics of his running aren't fluid; his fielding instincts are excellent, but because he is so awkward, he tends to field everything to the side and with one hand only. He's a kid growing into his moving parts. When he figures out how those parts work together -- and he will, he actually has too much athleticism not to -- he could be really, really special.

No, I haven't seen him play. Frankly, that's more of what I expected from the BA report hence the disconnect.

At this point with these really young players who have nothing but largely meaningless small samples of performance against uneven competition, there isn't a whole lot to go on so I think there's a reasonable tendency to scout the scouting reports. This one isn't that good.

It makes the next few scouting reports - Callis doing the team writeup, Goldstein, etc - more interesting.

NYPL:

12. Bryan Price, rhp, Lowell (Red Sox)
13. Brock Huntzinger, rhp, Lowell (Red Sox)
15. Kyle Weiland, rhp, Lowell (Red Sox)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...008/266878.html

That's surprising. Yeah I know NYP-L stats don't mean much, but Weiland was clearly the better pitcher this year. That's not to say that Price and Huntzinger were slouches, but Weiland was flat out dominant.

Huntzinger was filthy while with Lowell. If you factor in age and stats, I would rank them Huntzinger, Weiland, Price.

I think age was the only thing in Huntzinger's favor. Weiland had far better peripherals (K rate, GO/AO) and Brock got beat up, badly, in Greenville. More importantly, from my perspective, first hand observations indicated that Weiland just had better stuff. He had a nice, low 90s 2 seamer with movement down in the zone, and two other pitches (CU and CB) that showed potential. He is almost certain to be headed to Salem next year whereas Huntzinger may find himself back in Greenvile unless he impresses inthe off-season.

Regardless, given the age disparity, it is close to evening out. I'd say it's a pick em for the #1 spot.

But, from the perspective of this list, what Huntzinger did in Greenville is wholly irrelevant. It is the NYPL list. And, Huntzinger dominated in Lowell.

But, in all honesty, the difference between 13th and 15th in a League list is pretty minute. In fact, it is meaningless.

Just in terms of "scouting the scouting reports" I find this Huntzinger report much more enthusiastic than is probably warranted. In particular it doesn't seem like the description of his individual pitches really matches up to the conclusion:



I tend to think of Huntzinger as more mid-rotation pitchability than "high ceiling".

Weilanad may be low - I'd have him over Huntzinger at the least - but those kinds of decent pedigree college releivers being converted into starters are hard to judge after a couple months of short season ball. I don't mind deferring to the player's college pedigree and 3rd rd status while waiting to see how he does grinding out a rotation spot every 5 days for 5 months next year.

Oh, and despite my knocking Huntzinger I guess, at least in terms of BA league lists, he's going to be the only player from the 2007 draft to make one. A draft class not making much of an impact after one year isn't a big deal, but the way an organization beats the odds and gets a single good player is to have a handful of guys after year one who look like they have a pretty good shot to survive the next 3-5 years to be that guy. The 2007 draft is a pretty long way from that handful. The best you could come up with is a few from: Huntzinger (meh ceiling despite the writeup), Middlebrooks (poor year), Hagadone (TJS), Rizzo (cancer), Mailman (sort of held his own), and Dent (mostly pretty lousy).

Forget the longterm goal of finding a productive major league player, would you bet on any of those guys making a BA league list next year? I think Middlebrooks will have a shot, but those lo-A lists are very competitive (because thier are only 2 very large leagues to pick from). I wouldn't put money on him or anybody else making one.

SAL:

12. Che-Hsuan Lin, of, Greenville (Red Sox)
19. Ryan Kalish, of, Greenville (Red Sox)


http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...008/266919.html

What's amazing is on the subscriber page lists the full SAL top 20 from 2003. The list contained the following players:

1. B.J. Upton
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Cole Hamels
4. Jeff Francoeur
5. Jeremy Hermida
6. Hanley Ramirez
7. Fausto Carmona
9. Scott Olson
11. John Maine
13. Brandon League
14. Matt Cain
20. Brian McCann

Thats impressive. Is it that consistently filled with quality players in other years?

The Giants have 3 in the top 10. Pretty amazing.

Well, for comparison, that season's Midwest League top 20 has Prince Fielder at the top, but really pales in terms of MLB players after him. I'd say only Fielder and a healthy Zumaya could be compared with the elite from the SAL top 20. I can't really speak to how often this type of thing happens, or where historically this would rank if Philly were to put together a ranking of BA Top 20 "classes" by WARP, but that group of players would certainly make a great core to a contending club.

I'm pretty sure the 5 years ago list would be on the upper range. Just from memory, lots of lo-A lists look pretty mediocre 5 years later.

Someone at Sickels site received his issue and has posted the hi-A lists.

In the Cal the Sox have two prospects:

3. Lars Anderson
8. Josh Reddick

No Exposito or Navarro might be a bit of a disappointment.

From the same source.

EL

4. Lars Anderson
9. Dan Bard
15. Michael Bowden

Bowden behind Bard?

For perspective, Austin Jackson ranked #10. No idea why he would be behind Bard. Bowden definitely seems too low.

Thought this might be a good place to put this... In Keith Law's chat on ESPN yesterday he had the Sox as one of the top 4 systems in baseball for pitching prospects, along with Texas, Tampa Bay and San Fransisco. I was pretty surprised after all the guys that are already in the majors. Here's the meat of his argument: "Bowden, Kelly, Bard, Lentz, Hagadone and Britton when they return from TJ, Huntzinger (touch and feel type, but I like him), Price, Fife ... they've got a lot of depth even if there's only one big upside guy there (Kelly). "

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=22667

Link is insider only

Later in the chat Keith also had some positive comments about Stolmy Pimentel. He probably just forgot him when making his original list.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...008/266940.html

As noted previously:

Lars #4

Bard #9



Bowden #15



He goes on to rave about his makeup.

From John Manuel's chat:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/pros...009/266944.html

Re: Bard -





Re: Lars -



Thinks he'll start at Portland, and end the season in Pawtucket, which is not really going out on a limb.

Re: Argenis Diaz -



-----------
Wishes he ranked Bowden a little higher.

Guys like Bowden are often going to rate lower because they lack the pure stuff of other guys. In many cases guys with great "pitchability" get exposed when they reach higher levels, so you kind of half to take that into account I think. That being said he has had success at every level so far and there is a lot to be said for that.

Sounds more like Manny Delcarmen than anything. Manny was always a high velocity, no deception. I'm still skeptical on Bard.

i agree. i appreciate the BA hype machine leaving the station on Bard, but he's got a long long way to go before he's even an effective set-up reliever. BA doesn't make much sense on this one. Middlish ceiling and still a big risk to get there.

Middlish ceiling? I don't know, at some point we have to take the scouts' words at face value. The uncertainty is: can he command his stuff at higher levels? I don't think a ceiling is his problem, everybody who has actually seen him pitch say his ceiling is that of top notch reliever. Both his stats and his radar gun / scouting data seem to support that. Sure, maybe BA/Callis is carrying water for Boston, or alternatively, maybe the hype might be warranted? Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

I've been one of the least fanboyish posters on Manny Delcarmen, but, um, if they get out of Bard in 09-11 what the Red Sox have gotten so far out of Delcarmen between 06-08, then what's wrong with that? Delcarmen's not done developing, and neither is Bard.

who said anything was wrong with it? but if that's not the definition of middlish upside, I don't know what it is. not diminishing that in the least, just saying it is what it is.

International League Top 20

5. Jed Lowrie, ss, Pawtucket (Red Sox)
14. Brandon Moss, of/1b, Pawtucket (Red Sox/Pirates)

Bowden who pitched 40.0 innings in AAA, just missed qualifying for the list, which requires 48 IP.

4 Red Sox made Baseball America's 2008 Classification All-Stars

Chris Carter, AAA, OF
Michael Bowden, AA, SP
Mitch Dening, SS-A, OF
Kyle Weiland, SS-A, SP

Or Billy Koch?

Independent Leagues (for players who had their contracts purchased by affiliated clubs during the season):

5. Derrick Loop, lhp, Chico (Golden)
Signed with the Red Sox

6. Javier Garcia, rhp, Sioux City (American Association)
Signed with the Red Sox

7. Robert Cuello, rhp, Edmonton (Golden Baseball)
Signed with the Red Sox

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minor...008/267000.html

That's funny, because everything about Bard makes me think Farnsworth is his 50% projection, not his floor. I'd think Zumaya is his ceiling and Craig Hansen (the current version) his floor. I'm also just distrustful of minor league relievers in general.